Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[pisskop]

Votecount 2.05

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kaintepes

- (3) chilledtea, xtoxm, Almost50

Aneninen

- (3) acryon, Burning Crystal, kop

Burning Crystal

- (2) Aneninen, Mad King Ashnard

Almost50

- (1) Ranger

xtoxm

- (1) kaintepes

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Not Voting

- davesaz

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With 11 Alive it takes 6 to Lynch!
Day 02 Deadline is (expired on 2016-03-21 11:30:00).

[chilledtea]

I can see town BC doing everything they are accused of doing as scum in that case.

Like I get the feeling that lot of meta stuff is happening here - I have never played with either of the heads of BC before so it's just difficult for me to see them as obvscum or whatever.

I will say that if people want BC lynched then I wouldn't be opposed but I still think that both Kop and KT are better options. The only reason people think KT is town (including me on day 1) is because we consider him newb town. I think that is potentially underestimating.

Kop on the other hand hasn't done much scum hunting and has only jumped on wagons. Never tried to start one.

I am starting to think that it is possible ranger is scum as well.

If people want BC lynched, you surely will need a reason to vote for that lynch, not just because people want someone lynched, what you said, is band wagoning, oh hold on, that's what you are accusing me off, carry on.

What are your reasons for thinking that Ranger could possibly be scum?

What I meant was I wouldn't go and defend her from being lynched and I might help out by voting her if people think she is better than no lynch.

However, I think you are different. From Day 1 I've had my eyes on you, and I felt a little better about you but now because of several reasons including PoE you are back on my scumradar.

[Burning Crystal]

@Kop, Really, scumreadung all the major wagons? That's pretty convenient.

@Aninen, I don't do VCA until a scumflip. It's pretty well documented actually.

You're not even stating what the scumslip is but just repeating that over and over. That is a discrediting strategy.

I sheeped obvtown Almost and Dave onto your wagon day 1. They were claimed PRs. The only place for scum to attack was me. There was a huge wagon on my slot that no one could provide any reason for. Pretty big indication it's town being punished for a vote. You whine about being discredited but you're just caught scum and yes I give zero credit to scumreads who only whine about their perception after being wagoned for the most part.

@Xtoxm - Why did you think outing you suspected I was a VT was a good idea? I was hoping to have scum think I was the tracker/cop and draw more bullets not less. There's a missing kill. I was the logical jail choice (given the jailors scumreads). For any scumteam to miss a kill, they'd have to be dumb or desperate. Dumb leaves KT or Aninen (thought he could fake a case on me) or KT. Desperate leaves Aninen or MKA or a partner of theirs.

~Titus

[davesaz]

Missing kill?

[Burning Crystal]

Yes. While its theoretically possible there is no second kill, the odds are 1/12. So I am assuming two kills meant to take place.

~Titus

[chilledtea]

I am sorry but I just did such a quick 180 on my reads regarding BC.

I am now so close to thinking she is scum. Like 90% sure.

[chilledtea]

VOTE: Burning Crystal

[Kop]

Yes. While its theoretically possible there is no second kill, the odds are 1/12. So I am assuming two kills meant to take place.

~Titus

How do you come to a basis that there could have been a chance at being a missing kill? If Kuroi jailkept you, or Almost50, that would account for a second kill if there was one.

We've had these assumptions on and off now, and without seeing it, why talk about it?

VOTE: Burning Crystal

[Almost50]

@BC: How are the odds 1/12?? I'm not following.

[Burning Crystal]

The individual chances for town, 3p, and scum based kill sources are:
2nd Scum Team: 1/3
3P Serial Killer: 1/3
Town Based Vigilante: 1/6
Town based undirected Kills (Paranoid Gun Owner): 1/6
No extra kill sources: 1/12

^^ From the wiki

Oh wow Kop jumps on. Not a big shock. Nice reaction test Tea.

[Aneninen]

Missing kill?

Yes. While its theoretically possible there is no second kill, the odds are 1/12. So I am assuming two kills meant to take place.
~Titus

WAS?

...and I was wagoned because of this post.

There's a good question.
If we assume two scum teams, where's the other Nightkill?

(Before asking, I made it clear in 1068 that I included a possible SK too.)

How exactly do these add up?

By the way...

You expect the Queen of VCA not to analyze wagons?

@Aninen, I don't do VCA until a scumflip. It's pretty well documented actually.

And how do THESE add up?

[Burning Crystal]

Kuroi was never going to jail a weak bodyguard claimer. That's stupid and anti-town for reasons explained previously.

That means I was jailed most likely. The rest of the deductions are self explanatory.

Dual up kills on Kuroi or scum tried to shoot me are the most plausible options given Vig does not exist with Almost present. Pgo is rare as well.

[Burning Crystal]

Missing kill?

Yes. While its theoretically possible there is no second kill, the odds are 1/12. So I am assuming two kills meant to take place.
~Titus

WAS?

...and I was wagoned because of this post.

There's a good question.
If we assume two scum teams, where's the other Nightkill?

(Before asking, I made it clear in 1068 that I included a possible SK too.)

How exactly do these add up?

By the way...

You expect the Queen of VCA not to analyze wagons?

@Aninen, I don't do VCA until a scumflip. It's pretty well documented actually.

And how do THESE add up?

You suggested two scumteams after the fact tried to go oh SK is possible too.

I do always analyze wagons. My patented VCA does not come until Day 3 with a scumslip. Pretty well known on that.

[Burning Crystal]

Now, if you're going to lynch me for being the only fucker in here who reads an open setup wiki, do it already.

[Aneninen]

Because I was from mobile, as I said.
But then, someone STATED that it's not an excuse, oh wait, wasn't it YOU?
Yeah, sure, everyone seems to know better what I'm actually doing IRL, whether I have 2 spare minutes for a thought I don't want to forget while I'm working and focusing my mind on something entirely different or I'm scum and posting a silly question and faking all the time.

[Xtoxm]

There's a missing kill.

[Xtoxm]

@Xtoxm - Why did you think outing you suspected I was a VT was a good idea?

It probably isn't, but i'm not really into hiding the reasons behind my reads, and I think that observation should have been obvious.

[chilledtea]

Burning Crystal and Kop are both scum.

BC's analysis is hogwash, nothing else. For eg, a PGO doesn't kill anyone, people who target him get killed. Seems like a kopout excuse.

If she wanted to get a kill on her she wouldn't include PGO in her analysis.

[Almost50]

The individual chances for town, 3p, and scum based kill sources are:
2nd Scum Team: 1/3
3P Serial Killer: 1/3
Town Based Vigilante: 1/6
Town based undirected Kills (Paranoid Gun Owner): 1/6
No extra kill sources: 1/12

^^ From the wiki

Oh wow Kop jumps on. Not a big shock. Nice reaction test Tea.

OH, LOL... so you didn't factor in my role, which limits us to just 3 possible scenarios. One of them does have a PGO, but then they need to be targeted to activate. The other two would/should have 2 scum kills.

[Almost50]

Yeah, what chilled said. A PGO doesn't count if you don't have a night action, and if you do then you should know for certain if you had been jailed or roleblocked.

Also, I don't think a PGO would still stay silent for this long. I mean, if it was me I would have made sure I don't kill a PR by mistake, even if it meant I got lynched before LyLo, so I'm assuming there's not a PGO.

So, it's indeed very likely that there has been a blocked 2nd NK (RB'd of by JK or a no kill gambit.. doesn't matter), but it's how you explained it that doesn't look too well for you.

[Kop]

Yeah, what chilled said. A PGO doesn't count if you don't have a night action, and if you do then you should know for certain if you had been jailed or roleblocked.

Also, I don't think a PGO would still stay silent for this long. I mean, if it was me I would have made sure I don't kill a PR by mistake, even if it meant I got lynched before LyLo, so I'm assuming there's not a PGO.

So, it's indeed very likely that there has been a blocked 2nd NK (RB'd of by JK or a no kill gambit.. doesn't matter), but it's how you explained it that doesn't look too well for you.

No but surely you wouldn't play scummy enough to be investigated?

I wouldn't stay silent but I'd do enough to make scum come after me. They shoot you, you get one of them in return.

Or look at the setup and claim some role that scum would like out of the game whilst not drawing a Cc. Risky but it pays.

[Ranger]

prodge
activity coming at some point etc

This, unfortunately.

Tomorrow, I will be here.

Today, not so much.

[Kop]

@Kop, Really, scumreadung all the major wagons? That's pretty convenient.

@Aninen, I don't do VCA until a scumflip. It's pretty well documented actually.

You're not even stating what the scumslip is but just repeating that over and over. That is a discrediting strategy.

I sheeped obvtown Almost and Dave onto your wagon day 1. They were claimed PRs. The only place for scum to attack was me. There was a huge wagon on my slot that no one could provide any reason for. Pretty big indication it's town being punished for a vote. You whine about being discredited but you're just caught scum and yes I give zero credit to scumreads who only whine about their perception after being wagoned for the most part.

@Xtoxm - Why did you think outing you suspected I was a VT was a good idea? I was hoping to have scum think I was the tracker/cop and draw more bullets not less. There's a missing kill. I was the logical jail choice (given the jailors scumreads). For any scumteam to miss a kill, they'd have to be dumb or desperate. Dumb leaves KT or Aninen (thought he could fake a case on me) or KT. Desperate leaves Aninen or MKA or a partner of theirs.

~Titus

Why can't you do VCA on a town flip? I know a scum flip does show who could have possibly bussed, but surely you could get some information from a town flip?

Dave claimed? I thought he hinted or dropped some sort of crumb? So why would you put him in the obvtown bracket based on a crumb, hint?

[pisskop]

98

[pisskop]

99