Micro 594: One Night Ultimate Werewolf 5 (Game over)

[shos]

Sup guyz!

[shos]

^^^ these are silent "sup guyz", btw, it is read "First"

[shos]

I disagree.

regardless, I want to say that I am the doppelganger, and I know who the troublemaker is

[shos]

Lollowell

[shos]

be creative, guys

[shos]

I do not confirm or deny anything yet.

[shos]

You, and possibly the doppleganger & troublemaker, depending on what people say.

[shos]

and popcorn is not good for town.

should I claim who I switched?

[shos]

P-edit: 100% honesty will result in 50/50 odds or worse for the town...

ths

[shos]

If podobok is werewolf he sure as hell doesnt know it.

The troublemaker CC is interesting. Id bet it comes from a minion?

[shos]

Also I HIGHLY URGE PEOPLE to not rush with getting to night this time

[shos]

I say nothung

[shos]

Hmnmmmmmm

[shos]

Amazing luck, methinks

It will all be clear laterz

[shos]

Nobody rush. My plan exists
But I haz no timeeee
Tomorrow

[shos]

Alright I suddenly have some time to post. but I'm tired, so I'll take a shower and head here.

[shos]

starting to reread from ~page 2.

If anyone wants to claim that they have lied so far, now is the time

[shos]

I'm at post ~150, after claiming ended.
wooh! lots of quotes!

Spoiler: all relevant stuff

I am the doppelganger, and I know who the troublemaker is

Insomniac.

I'm the Troublemaker.

Robber here. Took a villager card.

Apprentice Seer here.

I swapped Lane with somebody.

I AM the troublemaker.

@Shos -

You were one of my swap targets.

@Shos -

You were not one of my targets,

I'm a villager

I'm the Seer

I started as villager

I took pokerfaces card.

I woke up as the Insomniac still. My role wasn't swapped. Or if it was, it was swapped multiple times lol.

I swapped Lane (Robber) and shos (Doppelganger).

I'd like to see if shos agrees with me on this. We both know that Card C was the doppelgänger.

My comments:
Guilty is 100% town. If he was lone scum, and has seen seer, so he doesn't know that doppel was in deck. if he has seen doppel, he couldn't have claimed seer safely.
3dr is likely minion, as guilty said. the CC came probably in an idea to get himself to 1v1 the troublemaker, and force chaos by forging results too. The mistake was that he said he switched me too, so now by me-not-claiming to have been scum, you all know that I was town.

if it isn't clear by now, it's true that I lied, I'm not the doppel.

Don't cry, it's gg. If shos is the real doppleganger, he will claim me as the troublemaker. If he isn't, then he will claim to be scum, I can out who I swapped him with, and we can either lynch the swap target or podoboq.

podok's play is either brilliant or he is surely town, being the only troublemaker with no doppel. I don't buy 3dr for a second; and this post just emphasizes how 3dr is probably a minion trying to force a lynch on people who aren't the wolf.

SO.
lane claimed robber and switched villager, but only claimed target AFTER poker claimed villager. that would confirm pokerface, because if lane were scum, then him being replaced by podok absolves him of all guilt and town just wins by lynching me.

This means that AFTER the night, I am 99% sure that:
{shos, lane, pokerface, podok} are town and {3dr} is minion.

fire as insomniac fits with all switches, and he claimed that before it was realized that I wasn't troubledoppler, so I think we can trust this.



SO currently, {Guilty, lowell, alexcellent} are unsure for me.
I actually didn't realize guilty was a SEER, I thought he was apprentice. so that means he has more info to share - he should share that LAST. apprentice should go first, and lowell will have to be done sorta by PoE.


btw, I was villager.

[shos]

I believe Lowell is up to claim role only

Robber here. Took a villager card. I think I'll hold off on who it was for now?

I want to eliminate the chance of wolves planning some farce, so before we poke around, let's get the claims out there. Already feels like Lowell is lying lol

I'm a villager. Is that a thing? Why am I the only one?

What do you mean, is that a thing? How do you not look at the role list?

Still think he's lying

Well that forces my hand a little bit...

I took Lowell's card, who was originally a minion. The reasons for me calling him out as a liar before he even claimed and being interested in his claim so much, I knew he wasn't going to outright claim minion

eh, I didn't see this, but --
so here's a question
if you robbed a minion, you'd know you're now a minion, and therefore should really reconsider everything you do. you didn't know you got switched at the time. so I think you're lying here.

[shos]

Information we need:

Lowell must confirm his role again
shos should confirm his role again - If shos still claims Doppelganger, he should claim who his Troublemaker is
Alexcellent should tell us what card he saw in the center
Guilty should tell us the other card he saw in the center

Let me know if I forgot anything. We can't make a decision until all of the information is out there.

"troublemaker" 3dr should tell us who he switched me with?

[shos]

yep!
As someone previously said, being all honest yields about 33-50% for town. making up some mess usually helps.

If shos is the lone wolf, he can check a card in the center, and if he checked Card C he would know that doppelgänger is a safe claim (it won't be CC'd). This is what I propose is the most likely scenario for how shos opened the game.

this is pretty funny indeed, and I knew it would be called eventually, but as I posted here, it appears I got very lucky/unlucky with choosing a role that's buried. Also I think my play kinda showed that I was lying..

[shos]

Can we have the apprentice info?

we know that a villager and doppel wasn't in the game, can we at least confirm that there is only one wolf?


pedit:
I think we can be sure that minion is in 3dr and podo. the wolf wouldn't do anything of that kind if he's just one

and I'd lie because 1) the game is very enjoyable with shitstorms and 2) shitstorms yield loads of info.

[shos]

VOTE: Lowell

P. Sure werewolf is here

[shos]

Lane targetted pokerface and got a villager card.

[shos]

I got swappes, so if I started as scum id say. But i didnt.

[shos]

Fire, if you go over my posts through the entire game you'll see that I hinted heavily that I was lying, or at least that lying is necessary.

Has lowell like, even, posted in the game?
I'm very sure it is him, a lowell-3dr team in which 3dr is the WEREWOLF making all the noise with the CC and lowell is the minion laying low? makes no sense.

[shos]

I'll be damned if I'm going to spend the game thinking about people's roles.

VOTE: shos

funny and interesting, probably a vote because he knew I was lying! xP

Can someone explain why claiming is good here? Because it seems very counter intuitive. Feel free to explain to me like I'm a five year old. Which I may be, because it's the internet and anything is possible.

I don't understand at all. Let me go reread the rules, I guess.

I'm a villager. Is that a thing? Why am I the only one?

I have no idea if I was originally something else. I've received exactly one role email from mod, saying I'm a villager.

So all these.
how do they align with this -

And no, btw, I'm in no way new to this game.

?

[shos]

3dr is. In my opinion, it's pretty obvious that one of the troublemakers' claims are the minion, and I strongly think podo is the actual one.

[shos]

I did not say this proves me as town. I think that the fact that I didn't claim scum when both troublemakers claimed to have switched me (we had absolutely no reason at the time to think any of them is lying) is much stronger; but I do need to try and convince you, so this might help.

I actually posted somewhere that it's amazing that I haven't been CCed, because I was genuinely surprised that my random choice of fakeclaim was in fact the role that was buried. But here's a good question, though. In a game with apprentice seer AND seer, why would scum fakeclaim a role they know is "safe"?

[shos]

Spoiler: from my ISO

I disagree.

regardless, I want to say that I am the doppelganger, and I know who the troublemaker is

be creative, guys

I do not confirm or deny anything yet.

P-edit: 100% honesty will result in 50/50 odds or worse for the town...

ths

I say nothung

Hmnmmmmmm

Amazing luck, methinks

It will all be clear laterz

Nobody rush. My plan exists
But I haz no timeeee
Tomorrow

and for realz, you think I'll be doing that as scum?

[shos]

What da fuck

ץ

[shos]

ok
so

we need to think what are the chances alex is lying.
He only has incentive to lie if he is CURRENTLY scum.

that can only happen if Guilty was in fact scum in the first place.
But he did expose TWO middle roles, which fit with everything.

I don't see that happening.

VOTE: Nightfall.

[shos]

Yep. Definitely could. But they had no reason to do this. It was clearly going to be Lowell or Shos. Alex had no incentive to claim WW.

I agree.
I was 100% sure it has boiled down to me vs lowell, and had thought that no other option is viable at all.

This means that alex-scum would have REALLY no reason to claim if he was scum.

I believe him.

[shos]

Yeah, I think this game is probably sealed. Very well played.

[shos]

Shos, Lowell, Pokerface, are you guys willing to accept that Podo is town to the extent of risking the game on it?

Yes.
I'm pretty damn sure about this. podo's play was brilliant if he's minion.

[shos]

Nnnope

[shos]

both podoboq and 3dr should be voting Alex. if we let them vote guilty, they can "cheat" and force an alex lynch. if they are both lynching alex, they can't trick us that way.

[shos]

No, I do not agree

Bith podoboq and 3dr shoulkd be in yhe pile voting alex

[shos]

Lol people calm the fuck down
I was skimming, all I need is that podoboq woud be on the Guity pile.

[shos]

Yes.

[shos]

So funny
You guys
Wow

[shos]

Wow podo, great play. I could swear it was GL. Amazing.


Thanks for modding! Will play again if I have the time.
Dopple not being in sucks, but lying as villager is just as fun

[shos]

Thanks for playing everyone, participation was 100% , no lurkers, no shitstorms-of-personal-nature.

Brilliant.


Alex, why did you claim when you did? Did podo fool you too and you thought you were town?

Also mod - in the onuw I know, there can only be one lynch! :0

[shos]

Never happened to me actually, lol. Revote, I guess, just between them two?

[shos]

How does it work in the app, lol

[shos]

Im nomming this for *something*. Podo fooled EVERYONE.

with tie possible, scum with 2 in 10 players, and 2 dying and onlky 1 has to be scum, have, in random lynching, about 62% to win. With all the information, i think it makes this town-balanced..

[shos]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7770772

[shos]

<NOMINATED>

[shos]

Apparantly this is the only thing that fits lol so yeah