Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[SummerInWonderland]

Claiming doc is the obvious scum play there vs anyone. I'd have had to back myself to win the argument, certainly, but would have done. Of course, I might have been wrong, but that perfectly plausible possibility (alliteration makes me happy!) wouldn't stop it being the right play.

okay so back to this point.
so you think it would be in scum's best interest to CC. I don't.
If you are scum you would have to argue against me- why would I know that CC is a good idea? (if I was scum with lurking Eggman) and also I would have to claim doc first before (because of Irchers order) if you were trying to argue that I was scum you would have to work around that I had a 50/50 chance of guessing the role. Scum didn't know whether there was a doc or BP. That seems pretty risky.
Also one of your points against me would be that Eggman forgot me in his reads! I am pretty sure earlier when UTL used that against me you said it wasn't a very strong point. It could be lazy newbieness.

Two VT vs Two scum-VT makes more sense.

I mean I could see it working better if for example YA and you claimed doc because you are far more town read than he is- you could probably have won that but since I am the doc I doubt it was in the best interests for scum to counter claim, especially if its you who is the logical, head over heart player also by your last game we can tell you clearly play a great scum game. People could easily expect a play like that from you idk if they would think I would try to pull something like that off.

Currently Smith is still my strongest town read. so I am heavily looking at KAGG, Egg, YA and the combos of those people. BUT smith isn't ruled out.
The thing here is (and if smith is town) why are we alive? who wanted us to be here and why? Thor as I said was probably killed because he was either on the right track or a threat or both. Shannon though was probably killed because scum figured out she was a PR. by the end of day 2 I thought she had a good chance of being the other PR but her standings where not very high for being town. So this brings me to more questions why was she killed when she could have been mislynched today? (higher chance than smith and I at least) I am adressing these questions to the town players left- why are you here? why did they want you here?
also why was KAGG not nk'd- he is one of the strongest town reads and yet he has remained... At least with smith and I you can make a case tha we have been really on the wrong track twice, but KAAG avoided the Ircher wagon. I wonder why all of us are here when others who were not as strong town reads have gone before.
I find some of this really interesting..

[mhsmith0]

can you clarify why you thought shannon was the other PR? I confess I missed it, although frankly I wasn't paying a huge amount of attention. If it was a legit PR read, then I think that answers why her; if it really wasn't, then I'd agree that it opens questions about why her.

PS Who did you protect each night? Since you're non CC'd, I'm not sure how important the why is, but knowing who you visited is at least some additional info for us.

[SummerInWonderland]

yea! I had a hunch- I don't think it was a legit read but I did see her as towny (I explained her consistency) It was more like she had a good chance to be it - it was when I was theorizing about certain people. I didn't think you were a PR and I didn't think KAGG was so it really left her. It was more like when she was nk'd I wasn't surprised she was a PR
again I did not expect her to be nk'd because of her standing in the group
both nights I protected you. I saw you as the most towny and thought youd be targeted because of it. Both NKs though havent been largely read town people.
again I am thinking why are we alive? KAAG, Smith, and me all here :/

[mhsmith0]

Well I know why I'm alive

I think Thor was killed because he was a fresh and aggressive perspective, shaking up the game. I need to think through the conclusions there some more, but it feels like a "we don't want the status quo to change" sort of kill, though "we just dont' feel confident about ML'ing him" is entirely possible as well. Shannon very well could have been a PR target, I don't know. If it wasn't a PR read, it feels semi-random. Shannon could have been a D3 ML; not the very top of the list, but certainly in the running.

PS I thought Egg's comment about thinking I was BP was interesting. Might explain why I wasn't shot at. Then again, that doesn't really make all that much sense either, at least in night 2. MYLO with a BP losing protection is actually better for scum than LYLO, since it means one more body that can be a mislynch (and then given the ML, the game is won that night, as the BP is one use).

[Eggman]

KAAG and Smith, to leave a townie and/or to keep discussion going.
YA, because his number one priority is to get me lynched (and win the game for the mafia. mylo hype).
Me, because I wasn't contributing a lot and I was the prime policy lynch.
SiW? She totally flew under my radar for the second half of Day 2, so maybe they forgot?

Above, some theories that take every scumteam into account.

[YawningAngel]

I pinned Shannon as cop after she was very suspicious of what she saw as me soft-claiming cop on day 2. Obviously, a tracker can do the same thing as there's no setup with both roles, though this didn't occur to me. I presume that scum figured out the same, thereby explaining her being NK'd yesterday.

Thor's NK I can't really explain. My only guess is that scum figured KAAG and mhsmith were likely cop targets (or BP in mhsmith's case) and decided to go with an aggressive, presumably skilled town player who was unlikely to be protected.

Assuming we are in fact in setup C as we appear to be, scum will have figured there was a 75% chance of JK, Doc, or BP so it makes sense for them to have tried to play around it, especially on N1 with no information.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

KAAG, can you link me to your most recent two town games, and your most recent two scum games? I plan to skim those to see if I can see some parallels.

@all: ignoring my turbo game (18 min. days), which I don't think is relevant, I have two completed games, one as town, one as scum.

Town: http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 14&t=52035 (scum was Harb and UDC, 3P was Keirador, result was a scum sweep - this was also my very first forum mafia game)
Scum: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia (scum was me, Crunkus and Calvary, result was a town win on the very last day)

Feel free to look through those if you think it's helpful. If YA or Egg has off-site completed games for me to look at, I will try and do so.

I can't link you 2 scum games because I've only had one scum game on-site (last time I was scum off-site was years ago):

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65304
Note: replaced in late on D1

Town games:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=64821
First game on site, was tracker and carried town to glorious victory! Note Calvary was in this game but flaked out

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=64977
Replaced in D2, town lost to immense scum performance from Viva

[mhsmith0]

Interesting. Assuming it's the same user, Calvary was my scum-buddy in my scum game but flaked out there too

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I played in some hosted on forums.heroesofnewerth.com in the 'Forum Games' section under the same nickname, but it was five years ago and I'm having trouble digging them up. Someone who's good with the search utility on there might have better luck.

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 15636.html
Pretty sure you were scum here (non-normal faction names)

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showt ... -Deception
Scum again

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 80169.html
3rd party

I'm afraid they are the only 3 I could find, using this in google:

Code: Select all

mafia YawningAngel site:forums.heroesofnewerth.com

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Claiming doc is the obvious scum play there vs anyone. I'd have had to back myself to win the argument, certainly, but would have done. Of course, I might have been wrong, but that perfectly plausible possibility (alliteration makes me happy!) wouldn't stop it being the right play.

okay so back to this point.
so you think it would be in scum's best interest to CC. I don't.
If you are scum you would have to argue against me- why would I know that CC is a good idea? (if I was scum with lurking Eggman) and also I would have to claim doc first before (because of Irchers order) if you were trying to argue that I was scum you would have to work around that I had a 50/50 chance of guessing the role. Scum didn't know whether there was a doc or BP. That seems pretty risky.
Also one of your points against me would be that Eggman forgot me in his reads! I am pretty sure earlier when UTL used that against me you said it wasn't a very strong point. It could be lazy newbieness.

Two VT vs Two scum-VT makes more sense.

I mean I could see it working better if for example YA and you claimed doc because you are far more town read than he is- you could probably have won that but since I am the doc I doubt it was in the best interests for scum to counter claim, especially if its you who is the logical, head over heart player also by your last game we can tell you clearly play a great scum game. People could easily expect a play like that from you idk if they would think I would try to pull something like that off.

You seem to be looking for reasons why I'm wrong, when there are more reasons why I'm right:

1) In every combination with a Tracker, there is another PR: BP or Doc
2) I claimed last, because Ircher said I was towniest (the fact that I was claiming last is crucial here)
3) When I came to claim, it was VT, VT, Doc, VT
4) I town-read you since about page 6, and with no counter claim unless I was Doc, you were obviously truthful
5) If I was scum, I'd have claimed the same PR as you. If you claimed BP, I'd have claimed BP. But you claimed Doc.

Now, obviously I DO think Eggman was just mistaken when he left you off his list. But if I was scum, I'd have lied through my teeth about it!

One fact is certainly true: you may well have out-argued me. But the right play is the right play: scum!KAAG would have made this play, 100% of the time.

To be clear: I don't underestimate you at all. Your incredulity at my saying I would make this play seems to be based on "Nobody would believe newby SIW would fake-claim". But you have told us that you're involved with hiplop, an experienced player on this site. I'm sure he's not assisting directly with this game, but he could be giving you general guidance. Plus...you could just be naturally good. You played doc well (towny but not so aggressive that you scared scum into NK'ing you, only issue is you didn't protect shannon even though you thought she might be PR) so why should we not think you know what you're doing at this stage? No reason. Exactly.

...

I have been highly consistent with my approach: I identify the town, then PoE the scum:

You are confirmed town.
I have read smith as town since three pages after he replaced.
I know I'm town.

There are only 2 players left.

Eggman: twice now has posted a read list, then done the opposite:

D2 - YA bottom, votes Ircher
D3 - KAAG town, SIW Null (before claim), next post KAAG scum, SIW VT

Ircher pointed out this on D2, I quoted it in 1123

YA: won't commit to reads. We're past 1,000 posts, but he can't tell who's more likely scum out of me and smith? Smith said it on D1 (it's a good word and I will be borrowing it): he isn't

ACCOUNTABLE

.

Additionally: Radja's

first

read-list had YA as scum. YA is the lowest who's still alive on Radja's

final

read-list. Thor had YA second to Ircher. Ircher had YA as Eggman's most likely partner (out of living).

...

The case on Eggman is rock-solid if you ask me: smith said he thought Eggman was a PR, well, maybe if he was, that would have given him a reason to play like he did...but he ain't.

Let us not ignore Ircher here: we did on D2 and it cost us.

The case on YA is mainly PoE, but PoE works. It is also based on dead-towny info.

On the offchance that smith is pwning my face here (yes I've given away my gaming heritage here ), we should kill off Eggman and get to 3-way-LYLO. Because you are clear, regrettably you will be NK'd tonight (not in scum's interest to have a clear in 3-way LYLO if they can help it), and then YA/smith/KAAG will have a bun fight. But at least we won't be giving away a perfect game to scum.

Still Intending To Lynch: Eggman

[YawningAngel]

I played in some hosted on forums.heroesofnewerth.com in the 'Forum Games' section under the same nickname, but it was five years ago and I'm having trouble digging them up. Someone who's good with the search utility on there might have better luck.

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 15636.html
Pretty sure you were scum here (non-normal faction names)

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showt ... -Deception
Scum again

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 80169.html
3rd party

I'm afraid they are the only 3 I could find, using this in google:

Code: Select all

mafia YawningAngel site:forums.heroesofnewerth.com

I guess the fact that I am apparently

never

town is bad meta-foo

[YawningAngel]

This is all bluster KAAG. The fact of the matter here is that I'm trying to choose between two seemingly pro-town players without much of a basis for doing so, and uncertainty on my part is a perfectly reasonable response. Neither you nor smith has claimed a PR. Neither you nor smith has done anything outrageously scummy. You've both been on one mislynch wagon but would likely have hammered the other given the chance. The only thing that I have to go on, in fact, is that you're currently trying to pin a donkey-tail on me through egregious bullshit.

If you were being honest in this process, you'd be engaging in the same mental process as I am - realising that you don't have

any

solid information on smith or me whatsoever and that it's pretty much a toss-up. But you're not. You're trying to construct some BS case on me so that if this game ends up in 3-way LyLo as it very well may you're still odds-on to win it. What I mean to say is that you're the scummiest scummy scum who ever scummed scummily in scumtown. I grant that you've played a very good game, but what you're trying to do me for here is pure fantasy. I've absolutely made myself accountable - I've given very definite thoughts on who I thought the scum team was (earlier Egg + x, now Egg + you) and I've stepped up to the plate when I thought a lynch needed pushing through or stopping (Day 1 hammer on Radja, Day 2 defence of Ircher). Now let's take a look at your record, which as best I can see contains a lot of umming and ahhing and, ironically, a total absence of that accountability you claim to love so much. On Day 1 you took a popular wagon, sat on it, and watched it roll rather than bus your buddy. On Day 2, despite apparently thinking Ircher was the lynch, you sat on the sidelines wringing your hands rahter than getting them dirty. The fact of the matter is that you have said and done very little this game - I grant that you've done a fantastic job of

seeming

involved, but now that the chips are down would you kindly indicate to the viewers at home what you've actually accomplished this past two days?

[KickAssAndGiggle]

This is all bluster KAAG. The fact of the matter here is that I'm trying to choose between two seemingly pro-town players without much of a basis for doing so, and uncertainty on my part is a perfectly reasonable response. Neither you nor smith has claimed a PR. Neither you nor smith has done anything outrageously scummy. You've both been on one mislynch wagon but would likely have hammered the other given the chance. The only thing that I have to go on, in fact, is that you're currently trying to pin a donkey-tail on me through egregious bullshit.

Ah, bluster: the word to use when you can't/won't actually engage. Although thank you for admitting I haven't done anything scummy. Y'know, like quick-hammering on D1 and then going "Oh woe is me, I didn't know, bad IC".

If you were being honest in this process, you'd be engaging in the same mental process as I am - realising that you don't have any solid information on smith or me whatsoever and that it's pretty much a toss-up

Ah, so we're back to the old "you can't read town" argument. Garbage.

You're trying to construct some BS case on me so that if this game ends up in 3-way LyLo as it very well may you're still odds-on to win it. What I mean to say is that you're the scummiest scummy scum who ever scummed scummily in scumtown.

Bonus points would have been awarded for Sir Scumly, 4th Earl of Scummington. You gotta get creative.

I've absolutely made myself accountable - I've given very definite thoughts on who I thought the scum team was (earlier Egg + x, now Egg + you) and I've stepped up to the plate when I thought a lynch needed pushing through or stopping (Day 1 hammer on Radja, Day 2 defence of Ircher).

If I'm scum with Egg, what happened to "Neither you nor smith has done anything outrageously scummy"??? OMGUS, right?

Now let's take a look at your record, which as best I can see contains a lot of umming and ahhing and, ironically, a total absence of that accountability you claim to love so much. On Day 1 you took a popular wagon, sat on it, and watched it roll rather than bus your buddy.

Completely untrue, just re-read D1. I joined UTL second, and once Thor entered, it was me who pushed the wagon, well over SIW. Of course it was wrong, but to say I was on a popular wagon and watched it is the sort of nonsense only a scum would say (or someone who hasn't re-read). Either way, you're wrong. Wrong wrong wrong wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong. (Read that to the tune of Big Ben's chimes)

On Day 2, despite apparently thinking Ircher was the lynch, you sat on the sidelines wringing your hands rahter than getting them dirty. The fact of the matter is that you have said and done very little this game - I grant that you've done a fantastic job of seeming involved, but now that the chips are down would you kindly indicate to the viewers at home what you've actually accomplished this past two days?

What I've accomplished:

Correctly read my PM.
Read SIW as town since early D1
Read smith as town since mid D1
Identified scum-team by PoE
Won the game for town, if they choose to listen to Radja, Thor, Ircher, KAAG

It is fun watching you flailing though. So please keep it up.

[mhsmith0]

@siw: just as an FYI, protecting prs is super important in this game. If you're pretty sure you did the pr, she's worth more than I am to the town. There's some WIFOM there of course, and it depends how confident you are in that read, but the town is probably better off with her tracking results (and another confirmed town), or a forced counter claim by scum, than it is with me (even though I'm totally awesome).

Wrt the kills, it's certainly notable that neither kaag nor I nor you were targeted. It's definitely something I want to mull over a good deal more when I have time.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

WRT kills:

Thor: scum read YA and Ircher. It wasn't Ircher...

shannon:

I pinned Shannon as cop after she was very suspicious of what she saw as me soft-claiming cop on day 2. Obviously, a tracker can do the same thing as there's no setup with both roles, though this didn't occur to me. I presume that scum figured out the same, thereby explaining her being NK'd yesterday.

We need more sophistication than this?

[mhsmith0]

WRT kills:

Thor: scum read YA and Ircher. It wasn't Ircher...

shannon:

I pinned Shannon as cop after she was very suspicious of what she saw as me soft-claiming cop on day 2. Obviously, a tracker can do the same thing as there's no setup with both roles, though this didn't occur to me. I presume that scum figured out the same, thereby explaining her being NK'd yesterday.

We need more sophistication than this?

We may not. I honestly don't know. It's something I'm thinking on.

[mhsmith0]

Kaag, I skimmed your town games and your one scum game, and I noticed that you pushed the idea of a "town flock" in your scum game but apparently NOT in your town games.

So I have to ask: have you ever pushed that idea in a town game here? If so, please find me a relevant example. Because your meta suggests it's a scum tell of yours, and the scum reasoning is easy:

1) if you make it in, you're golden
2) it's MUCH easier to make "honest" town reads when you already know that what you're "finding" is in fact accurate

That's not vote worthy at this point, but it's a troubling sign.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I've never played in a game before where people had trouble with that concept.

btw, on a side note, I think you tend to lean towards emphasizing the benefits of getting town reads right, while I tend to mentally emphasize the detriments of getting them wrong. That and after one game where literally no one was town reading each other or giving each other any reason to do so (other than a probably mechanical clear of the scummiest-looking player in the game), I basically have no experience in intuitively knowing how to town read others.

Then again, the whole reason I'm here is to learn. So hopefully I'll start to develop that sense a bit.

I had no need to push this very well-known concept in those games: nobody doubted it.

I'm utterly surprised you think I pushed town-blocs in the scum game I gave you? I was by myself come D2...I had to lynch towny after towny, balls-to-the-wall style, three days running? I also tunneled the cop on D2 . So respectfully, my defense is: you are mistaken. I hard read Aqua/Postie as town, that was strategic. But look at my interactions with chilledtea on D3/D4: you'll see it's not true.

If you haven't looked, I think the scum PT of that game will help guide you (I was verbose even when on my own):

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=65305

(I've also tried looking for the superb article by Pirate Mollie on the subject, now she is a TOP player. I struggled but will look again after work).

[KickAssAndGiggle]

This isn't the post I was referring to, but it is the same player making the same point:

@ op - personally i feel like you can have the best reads in the world but they don't mean dick if you are incapable of working worth your townreads. I feel like town wins as a team and loses as a team and I feel like sometimes so many pple lose sight of this cos they wanna be DAH #1 TOP SCUMHUNTER OF ALL TIME.

another important skill that I feel like gets overlooked is differentiating between town flail and scum flail. <---- I feel like this is the most important town skill to have.

on scumhunting tho I guess I can say this: try to engage your scumreads in a way that gets other players to see what YOU see. pple are much more likely to wagon some1 if they feel that they have come to their conclusion on their own.

also the whole purpose of scumhunting is to et pple to reveal what they don't want to. sometimes direct assault doesn't always work (KURIBO BEING THE EXCEPTION) so try other ways like joking, flirting, doing things that disarms them so that they will let down their guard. it makes the game more fun IMO.

[Eggman]

Discussion stopping in the middle of MYLO is never good! That said, I'm not sure what to say at the moment, so! Please find something!

[Jackal711]

(quick phonepost, will format correctly later)

VOTE COUNT 3.1

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
Eggman (0) -
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: KickAssAndGiggle, YawningAngel, Eggman, SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is Sunday, April 17th 2016 at 6:15 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-17 18:15:00)

[mhsmith0]

btw, jackal, thread topic and logo still show night 2 rather than day 3.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I made a case on Eggman, but A) I put it in a spoiler and B) it was near the bottom of the page.

So, I'm going to...

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Bump this...

[KickAssAndGiggle]

So I can repost out of spoilers to page top.