Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith I wouldn't worry too much about it! I am sure she's probably is over it now
and yea when I look back I probably should have claimed BP because then we would have had a better chance at this point!

For future reference you should have just claimed BP/doc and if CC'd (which was unlikely) done a "if I was doc I would have protected __, __" bit. With a tracker dead, there had to be a doc/bp on the board, and it didn't matter THAT much which of the two it was at that point. What mattered was there was a power role and whether anyone CC'd. Also, at any rate you won't likely get two night saves, so it's a situation where we lynch correctly tomorrow or we lose. What you claimed ultimately doesn't really change that situation, unfortunately.

As far as UTL goes, hopefully she's not upset. Sometimes people get upset and stay upset. I don't know her well enough to know how she'll be thinking of it weeks afterwards. My hope is she isn't super pissed... but if she is I understand. It's something I'm a bit sensitive to, since I've seen/read games where things have gotten really out of hand.

That said, at the least I can point to this game in the future as "SEE! Trying to dig my way out of a situation where I've really pissed someone off is NOT something I only do as wolf" sort of thing (since I'm now 2:2 in doing that as wolf).

[Almost50]

back to game solving!

And I think you already know what I mean.

No, I don't. Honest! You do want to lynch scum, right?

If you're not a wolf, we will have words over this. The answer should be super obvious.

@A50: did you REALLY not understand what I meant here:

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

There is ZERO reason why I would want to do this given Summer's KAAG vote. And I think you already know what I mean. Which makes me seriously wonder why you'd even ask for me to do this.

The answer really was super obvious. I want you to either cop to BS'ing here and explain yourself, or double down on this.

I swear to God I didn't and still don't. What does/did Summer's vote on KAAG had to do with you hammering scum!YA??

[mhsmith0]

I swear to God I didn't and still don't. What does/did Summer's vote on KAAG had to do with you hammering scum!YA??

This is troubling, but I'll explain it anyway.

Summer voted KAAG and by all signs wasn't going to move her vote (and certainly not in enough time to head off YA showing up). Because a known townie voted KAAG, either she was correct (and he was a wolf) or the two wolves could hammer for the win. Literally,

THE GAME IS OVER IF SHE IS WRONG

.

By voting KAAG, she enabled any of the non-KAAG potential wolf teams:
A50/YA
A50/MHS
MHS/YA

to win. Also, if YA was wolf, then UNLESS YA was KAAG's wolf buddy, then YA and his buddy would hammer for the win.

Now let's say that you and I vote YA in that spot (you were already there, so we're talking about me joining you). With vote on the board of Summer on KAAG and us on YA, then UNLESS the wolf team is exactly YA/KAAG, the wolf team has the easy option to hammer for the win (and if that is the wolf team, then we might as well just lynch KAAG first anyway). To wit:

A50/MHS: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
A50/YA: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
MHS/YA: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
A50/KAAG: A50 has the option of quick hammering YA once I voted for YA
MHS/KAAG: MHS has the option of quick hammering YA once A50 voted for YA (which was already on the board anyway, which makes your convincing me to vote there moot)

KAAG/YA: the ONLY possible combination that does not have the option to quick hammer for the win, since all votes (except YA's) are on wolves. And if it's this team, then there's no actual gain for the town from hammering YA first (and in fact, since you had convinced yourself it was me instead of KAAG, lynching YA first would just delay the town's loss until the final three since KAAG had you pocketed, for reasons that frankly I still fail to understand).


Like I said, this was SUPER obvious. And I'm deeply concerned you put enough thought into the conspiracy theory of evil genius MHS manipulating everything all game long, but not enough thought to figure out a really easy logic puzzle.

[Almost50]

Hmmm.. and now I know WHY I was confused:

LOL, first time I think I've ever been happy to have an upset stomach.

None of your points undo Eggman on D2 Almost.

What

does

is that both smith and Summer had been on the verge of voting me, but you made a case on smith. You wouldn't do that as scum. The fact they can't see this means one is scum, one is newb. And Summer is confirmed, so...

VOTE: YawningAngel

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

There is ZERO reason why I would want to do this given Summer's KAAG vote. And I think you already know what I mean. Which makes me seriously wonder why you'd even ask for me to do this.

Apparently I was asking YOU to HAMMER. YA already had TWO votes on him (mine & KAAG's), so I didn't see it the way it went through your mind. It was a simple "place your vote here and end the day".

[mhsmith0]

skimming KAAG: day 1 he threw a lot of shade on Ryu/Egg, but never quite got to the point of voting. OTOH, he held YA as a null read for a really long time too. Both are suspicious interactions.

He DID threaten to hammer Egg, but never actually did. And the intent post was squishy enough that it was highly plausible someone would step in and push a different direction first.

wrt Egg, day 2 seems plausible as well; distancing behavior very much in range.

PS for kicks:

One thing I will suggest is that Eggman is the sort of partner I would bus mercilessly as scum, so I'm not discounting anybody, even those who've pushed him hard.

Hmm...

PPS I actually temporarily forgot KAAG dumped a vote on YA, FWIW. But since I was a lot more certain of KAAG being scum than I was of YA (again, YOU may have been certain on YA, but I wasn't even slightly sure of YA, especially since you basically hard sold the idea that it was YA/MHS or KAAG/A50, and I KNEW that it wasn't YA/MHS), there was no reason at all for me to hammer there. Especially since even if I was correct (which again I wasn't sure of), if you were town you'd just quick-hammer me tomorrow. I mean, you made it super clear that you were going to do this. So why accept a very likely D4 loss just in order to hammer my weaker wolf-read? "I don't think it can be YA-Egg, therefore it must be KAAG" was a huge selling point on the KAAG lynch, and I never really went away from KAAG as my #1 wolf read. By that point I was really strong on KAAG as wolf and basically around 50-50 between you and YA... so why WOULDN'T I vote KAAG there?

And "hey everyone MHS is the scum, MHS you need to hammer YA but even doing so won't change the fact that you're scum" was the exact opposite of a compelling argument. It was almost like you were trying to get me to panic into voting YA or something. Which, again, I saw zero need to do.

[mhsmith0]

Ultimately, the down side of you hard-selling the idea that I must be wolf and KAAG must not is that you had zero influence with me, frankly regardless of my alignment.

For kicks, game theory it out:

If I'm wolf and YA's partner:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted on D4. I lose.

If I'm wolf and NOT YA's partner:
If I vote YA, I win. Obviously this wasn't how it went down.

If I'm town and YA is town:
If I vote YA, I lose.

If I'm town and YA is wolf, along side KAAG:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted on D4. I lose.

If I'm town and YA is wolf, along side A50:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted by A50 on D4, and it's all up to town!KAAG. Plausible win but far from certain.

So basically the only way that town!MHS would have any motivation to vote YA there is if I also wolf-read A50. But I didn't. I wolf-read KAAG, in substantial part because I didn't find YA/A50 team a credible possibility.. Although I'll admit that the paranoid part of my mind was wondering if your performance on D3 was really designed to hide a YA-A50 team... which was why I did the whole "well done if you're wolf team" bit, since I was PRETTY sure about KAAG being wolf but not 100% sure.

[mhsmith0]

PS FWIW, a LOT of your case, when you slice out the conspiracy theory angles, really boiled down to "he's aggressively wolf-hunting, therefore he must be a wolf, therefore we should lynch him". As either alignment, I would strongly advise you not to try that one in the future.

PPS There was a point you quoted KAAG town-reading me and basically said "WTF". If you actually are town, that might have been a good reason to suspect him. If you aren't town, that still might have been a good reason to pretend to suspect him.

[SummerInWonderland]

its like he is scum or something!
anyways! I hope you get the scum smith because I will be NK'd
idk I got kaag and I really think 50 is his partner
good luck tomorrow and such

[mhsmith0]

Thanks! I'll do my best, that's for sure. I'll try not to let you down... and if I do, my apologies in advance. No matter what, no wolf team sweep, which is a better fate for you than I got in my first game

[Almost50]

especially since you basically hard sold the idea that it was YA/MHS or KAAG/A50, and I KNEW that it wasn't YA/MHS),

Yes, but why would I link myself to my scum partner that hard? Wouldn't it have been MUCH better if I linked myself to YOU, and YA to KAAG instead? That way if YA got lynched (assuming Me + KAAG) we win already, and if I got lynched you would've been the likely next target (or at least it would be even chance bc of WIFOM). It would have even -probably- won you on my side to lynch YA. All we needed was for one of you or SUMMER to vote there and we win. Why alienate you against me and make it harder for myself to lynch YA, and even if I get lynched (as scum) make SUMMER leaning towards voting KAAG just because I had done my best to convince her YOU were scum??

smith, how stupid do you think I am (aside from the fact I introduced you with a strong evidence by me concluding it was you + YA, I mean)

[mhsmith0]

smith, how stupid do you think I am (aside from the fact I introduced you with a strong evidence by me concluding it was you + YA, I mean)

That depends...




Like I said, I'm going to think on it. I won't be quick voting. But it does hold together as a wolf team looking for the sweep, or looking to protect the "deep wolf" and avoid a coin toss final three. It may also hold together as a terrible town performance. "I don't know" is the best you can get right now. You haven't earned "I believe you".

[Almost50]

there was no reason at all for me to hammer there. Especially since even if I was correct (which again I wasn't sure of), if you were town you'd just quick-hammer me tomorrow. I mean, you made it super clear that you were going to do this. So why accept a very likely D4 loss just in order to hammer my weaker wolf-read? "I don't think it can be YA-Egg, therefore it must be KAAG" was a huge selling point on the KAAG lynch, and I never really went away from KAAG as my #1 wolf read. By that point I was really strong on KAAG as wolf and basically around 50-50 between you and YA... so why WOULDN'T I vote KAAG there?

And "hey everyone MHS is the scum, MHS you need to hammer YA but even doing so won't change the fact that you're scum" was the exact opposite of a compelling argument. It was almost like you were trying to get me to panic into voting YA or something. Which, again, I saw zero need to do.

OK.. ok.. you did the right thing there I'd have to admit. And, yes.. I would've probably still voted you on D4.

Mate, you need to also try to see it my way. You had strong suspicions on YA since the end of D1 and you never pursued them despite the fact you were the loudest voice and most talkative person. Your posts gave me sore eyes and I had to skim through them sometimes, but it was hard because I was only reading yours, YA's and KAAG's. I hardly read stuff from anyone else (just a few post with a quick glance on the rest).

Which reminds me: Please do an ISO YAWN. On #57 (his third post) he already favours "KAAG's perspective on throwing out information" then on #59 (his 4th post) he states "The two people I can meaningfully put pressure on at this point are you and KAAG. I find what he's written to be pretty on-point, and what you've written to be... eh. I come down on his side on the heart/head thing."

Never mind... I'm not in a mood to do an ISO myself, but if you have the time and will, please do it sometime.

[mhsmith0]

Oh, I will definitely re-read, and do my best to think it all through. Like I said, I'm not quick voting, and YA has his own issues to account for. You're in the "lead"... but it's not over.

[mhsmith0]

Questions for YA and A50 to mull over during night time:

1) What in this game have you done (or your predecessor done) that is clearly town and/or not wolf?
2) What in this game has the other guy done that is clearly wolf and/or not town?
3) How does a KAAG/you team not make sense?
4) How does a KAAG/the other guy team make sense?

I'll probably ask more questions D4, but I think those are the key points to consider.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 3.Final

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (1) - Almost50
mhsmith0 (0) -
Almost50 (1) - YawningAngel
KickAssAndGiggle (3) - SummerInWonderland, mhsmith0, KickAssAndGiggle

Not Voting:

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

As of Post #1418, KickAssAndGiggle was lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

Night 3 begins. Deadline is Wednesday, April 20th at 7:30pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-04-20 19:30:00)

[Jackal711]

YawningAngel has failed to respond to a prod. Seeking a replacement.

Night deadline is frozen and will be 24 hours after replacement is found.

[Jackal711]

Clumsy

has replaced YawningAngel.

Night 3 deadline is set to Tuesday, April 26th at 2am PST which is in (expired on 2016-04-26 02:00:00)

[Jackal711]

SummerInWonderland

,

Town Doctor

, was killed Night 3.

VOTE COUNT 4.0

Clumsy (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
Almost50 (0) -

Not Voting: Clumsy, mhsmith0, Almost50

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is Tuesday May 10th at 8:15 am PDT which is in (expired on 2016-05-10 08:15:00)

[mhsmith0]

*rubs hands together gleefully*

More seriously, as the conf!town here I want to set some ground rules for today's proceedings. At this point, there's a pretty decent amount of evidence on both of your slots as being wolves, but obviously it actually is only one of you. With that in mind, I'd like you to focus on three things:

1) What in this game have you done (or your predecessor done) that is clearly town and/or not wolf?
2) How does a KAAG/you team not make sense?
3) How does a KAAG/the other guy team particularly make sense?

If you want to discuss what the other slot has done that's wolfy, that's OK, but I want discussion to be focused on those three items, at least in the early day. As I've said before, I don't plan on quick voting, but I don't see the use in making everyone wait two weeks either. So I'll vote when I'm ready to make a final decision.

PS This game was my first (non-turbo) LYLO ever, and now it's my first three person LYLO.

PPS FWIW, I was actually hoping that Summer was bullshitting and was actually BP and we'd both survive to see the final day. Alas.

[Clumsy]

Weee, replacing into LyLo. As my first replace too. Unfortunately I'm going to need time to catch up. First question though, why are you conf town Smith?

[mhsmith0]

Egg (A50's predecessor) and YA (your predecessor) voted each other yesterday. If KAAG and I were teammates, we could have hammered. There was ALSO a period yesterday when both A50 and KAAG voted YA (your predeccesor), when again if I was KAAG's teammate I could have hammered.

[Clumsy]

Ah, that makes sense. I'll go back and look around, but yeah, that would do it I think.

[mhsmith0]

I'd suggest triple ISO'ing KAAG, Egg and YA for most of the game, and then ISO'ing KAAG and A50 starting when he came in (YA basically was absent EOD3). Reading the whole thread will give you a better sense of the context of the whole game, but that's probably a good starting point for a quick entry, and then after that you can go back and read

PS Given that I'm conf!town, you should probably vote A50 and A50 should probably vote you. It's clearly one or the other, and the question is which. I'd recommend verifying the story I just told you first, of course, but once you've verified that, then it MUST be A50 (from your perspective, if you're town - and vice versa from his).

[Clumsy]

Yeah, I was gonna say I'll wait to verify the conf town thing first, haha. That'd be an embarrassing way to lose.

Not gonna lie, feeling very lazy at the moment. I will look into things soon-ish though.

[Almost50]

*LOL*

What was the first thing (or maybe second) I said when I replaced in??