Mini 1762: Game Over

[Raskolnikov]

No, I'm pretty sure he did.

I honestly thought he was lying about the 1-shot commute even yesterday but I was pretty sure it was out of self-preservation. Thought he was still joat with last ability doctor instead of commute though.
But I know he probably wouldn't straight up lie to the end about who he checked especially when he knew he'd have a good chance of dying tonight. Though you can't trust him alive even as town he generally is careful not to mislead post-death. Saying joat when gs is more-or-less harmless in this scenario and doesn't really change much, whereas lying about actual results would be straight up careless and potentially jeopardize the game so I'm assuming he did check you two.

I do kind-of like how you pointed it out though?

[Raskolnikov]

Your reasoning isn't terrible but I think you're reading too much into playstyle for me and moi.
I mean I can understand you thinking MoI looks town, though it'd be wrong because if you're town he'd then be 80% scum unless it was gif, because I think moi's style is pretty analytical and he has insights and some contributions beyond what I'd expect from scum, though in reality he did try to misdirect the lynch and cast a lot of doubt onto RC. We should probably talk about the gr/syn thing though because I don't see anything against it being bussing. For most of the game they've been half-hearted/low commitment on it especially syndesis with her push and I think they stepped up when the pressure went on them and they got self-conscious but overall I didn't see it as too genuine. You could be right about gif though I remember townreading him heavily yesterday (and if you're right about gif that also would make you right about one of syn/moi, but eeeh).

But yeah it's pretty late and I should think about it tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: syn

@mod

prods pls

[Raskolnikov]

Syn, you're asking if MoI re-evaluated his reads based on the flip(s) but technically you shouldn't care or want him to because he's scumreading me and yesterday you pushed me-gr as the scumteam

[Raskolnikov]

No, I'm still planning to I'm just inexplicably tired

[Raskolnikov]

If you suspect me and syndesis as a team can we at least lynch him first because I don't really mind trading 1 for 1

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, let's play a game.
Everyone vote between me and syndesis, though if you get me you have to get syndesis next day.
After that I'd recommend MoI though there's an outside chance he's just town playing really badly.

I don't mind using my life here if it gets scum lynched and tbh nobodies going to listen to what I say while they still suspect me anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

As long as everyone agrees to get syndesis after I flip town, feel free to end the day.

[Raskolnikov]

I did re-read her. Bad assocation with GR, and nothing interesting with syndesis. Individually her votes make sense and I don't see anything wrong with her day 1-3.

Syndesis herself I already talked about but I'll summarise again. Bad jump off of GR's slot (before gr replaced) near the end of day 1 onto two others, apathetic d2. First serious push from her is onto GR mid day 3 at the point where scum can afford to bus. The push itself was weak af and didn't really pick up until people started suspecting/bringing attention to both of them.

I can talk about the list she posted today though, thats new. Weak reads on everyone to allow her to vote anyone, and notice how her reads on me is weaker than it should be when she was convinced of me/gr partners yesterday. If she was town and actually in doubt about my alignment I think she should be offended by what I'm saying (lynch her after me) but she straight up doesn't care which doesn't make sense. I'd only completely ignore someone saying what I'm saying if I was 100% they were scum but in her read she doesn't even say that but leaves it open to change when she "looks back at the d3 wagons".

[Raskolnikov]

I guess it could be GiF/syn though.
If MoI is scum at this point he's scum making more sense than any of the town.
Nino's town and probably kirroha but they're not really showing any depth of thought today with analysis or association. Nino especially is disappointing because as conf-town (that probably gets NK'd tonight) she should be playing her heart out today :/

[Raskolnikov]

First if Rask actually is Town I’m peeved that he’s be so willing to roll over and try link lynches like this when we are only guaranteed two lynchs to get at least 1 scum. Especially given all I’ve had to say about why Synd doesn’t make much sense as a Golden partner based on how yesterday shook out.

If at the end of the day I'm wrong and we lose in lylo from the return lynch, I can still say I tried and look to see where I misread. It's way more preferable to take something I'm 90% on by trying to force a 1 for 1 than to step back and hope other people just lynch correctly after I'm gone (with this town my confidence is almost 0). Even if it's a mislynch none of you can really criticise me for that after you mislynch me; the game would be more or less a collective failure. I also feel forced into this because anything less memorable generally gets ignored after death and I'd rather be right/wrong (because if you are wrong you can learn from it) than essentially dying for nothing and having no real impact on the game.

[Raskolnikov]

Who do you think is the scumteam?

[Raskolnikov]

Nvm I just saw 1688

[Raskolnikov]

Well he should be posting more soon, I doubt this was what he meant when he said save the thread.

[Raskolnikov]

Syn/gr had to bus day 3 because they were both under suspicion and one of them needed to come out looking better.

[Raskolnikov]

Oh and if you're taking everything from yesterday/today at face value you have another thing coming.

Lynch syn or me or both, please.

[Raskolnikov]

@MoI
Kirroha pushed the GR wagon the hardest by far and a brief jump doesn't really change that; day after day she brought it up when the town focus was elsewhere.
I don't see how you can scumread her for the VT thing either.
1. If someone says "VT claims don't prevent lynches" the implication is in general town don't stop for a VT claim, which I'd agree with. Saying this doesn't mean you personally will/won't lynch VT claims.
2. Even if you were right and she was being logically inconsistent (which I don't agree on), as far as I know being inconsistent with minor details doesn't = scum. You would have to explain why it's scummy; why would scum kirroha push gr super hard and then back off last minute for something like that? I actually think scum are more likely to be rigid and consistent about technical details because they always have their appearance in mind. I can understand saying someone is scum through substantial things like read inconsistencies or conveniently forgetting about relevant details to people they want lynched but something like that just looks NAI.

Hopefully she gets prodded/replaced though before it gets too close to deadline.

[Raskolnikov]

GR was also pressuring synd long before d3. GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (synd) while still fossing a buddy (rask). It really looks like a classic instance of vote-a-townie fos-a-buddy so that he can push for the mislynch while still appearing to maintain distance from a teammate.

Alright, so how are these two not interchangeable?
GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (synd) while still fossing a buddy (rask) [What you say]
GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (rask) while still fossing a buddy (syn) [this, until it was no longer viable]

You're framing it as though there was a huge difference in effort from GR for me vs syn. Rather he seemed willing to vote both (and technically would have had to for the sake of keeping his story straight) and we don't know how yesterday would have played out if there were more people willing to go for that vote.
I'm pretty sure the only reason my lynch didn't happen yesterday was that RC (and someone else I think) were strongly opposed to it. I'm also confident that if syn and gr both after all their exchanges went on me they'd have been utterly shafted by my flip especially when them bussing was already speculated even then.

[Raskolnikov]

MoI.

Let's say I'm kirroha. I slip that I'm VT and when I'm wagoned I say in my defence it would be a dumb thing to crumb as scum because it wouldn't help when getting lynched. That's fair. She's saying she thinks scum usually claim PRs to save themselves.
Now she has her scumread to L-1. GR claims VT. She said earlier she expects scum to claims PRs, so is it that much of a shock if she's wary of a VT claim?
I'm not saying it makes her town either (I think her actions throughout do that), I just think you're basing your read too heavily off of what is a more or less inconsequential detail.

[Raskolnikov]

I didn't consider the replacement point though..

[Raskolnikov]

I honestly don't think kirroha is the type of player who would hard bus a player day 1 for being dead-weight. Personality aside I'm not sure she would come to the conclusion that's an optimal play.
Bussing that stopped on replacement implies it's because of the player sucking and not because you wanted to hard bus for the sake of bussing (which is rare day 1 anyways), but if I don't think kirroha would have decided that and I really don't think the previous owners of the slot would have suggested it then I think it'd have to be a plan from the third scum, which is a) weird/unlikely because he/she would have made a plan for use purely for their two partners b) would narrow it a little bit (definitely not rubixxx for example). But I don't think so.

[Raskolnikov]

Because he was trying to push for a synd lynch while fossing you, rather than trying to push for a you lynch while fossing synd... I do see a big difference in effort from GR for you vs syn on the last day. In fact his very first post of the day put synd alone in his bottom tier on his scumreads. It's a moot point that he technically would have had to vote you and even the way you phrased that feels like it came from a mindset of him having been scum with you.

I have also thought synd's play today has looked much more genuine than yours. I'm really not buying the "lynch me then syndesis" narrative. It feels constructed.

There isn't actually anything I can say to this. I guess I'm just not genuine!

[Raskolnikov]

To your credit I get that a lot though. Maybe after this game I'll establish a strong enough meta of not looking genuine as town for next time.

[Raskolnikov]

I have to give the third scum some props this game, syns scum but between implosion, MoI, GiF and kirroha I really don't know.

[Raskolnikov]

Sorry, been really busy
should have time tomorrow afternoon?

[Raskolnikov]

Will we get an extension for the replacements?
We're kind of waiting for them tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

I have to ask kirroha-slot a question.

[Raskolnikov]

Kirro already sort of answered. I want to see how the replacement responds.

[Raskolnikov]

this game is so fucked

[Raskolnikov]

whichever of you are town I want you to rethink this game very well after my (or possibly kirroha's) flip if it gets to d5 (modkills+ml could end it here)

I really don't know how I could save the game at this point if its going to deadline with 2 town wagoned and modkills potentially coming in.

[Raskolnikov]

I think you're town but the reality is one of us is misreading this game and if your list is me/gif/kirro I'm going to assume you are.
I mean technically one of gif or kirro could be third scum but if you're going to go into the rest of this game giving moi and especially syn a free pass when I'm 100% it's at least syn possibly both then we're going to have a bad time.

If I'm wrong on syn or kirro I guess I'll eat my words in the postgame but promise me you'll reconsider things after I flip or kirro does if she's town (mafia will have to nk nino slot). If it gets to d5 lylo it's looking rough with how divided everyone is this game.

[Raskolnikov]

Righteo.

For when I'm gone; although it doesn't look like you guys would value my reads much anyways
syn (almost certainly scum)
MoI (probably scum)
GiF/kirroha/implosion is weird because logically I know if it isn't syn/MoI then one of these has to be scum but I don't know which.

top teams are gr/syn/MoI >>> gr/syn/gif > gr/syn/kirr (unlikely)
and I have moi/gif ruled out from their exchange and kirro/gif ruled out from ink's earlier interaction with kirro
I was going to rule out imp with some for hard defending (jump off TG d1 looked too obvious to be from scum) but in some of his games he actually just hard defends his partners so ehhh, strong townread his d4 posts though.

Also I really wanted to see if anyone would take my chain lynch; I assumed if syn was actually town then scum would probably accept the premise and try to use it to get free lylo mislynch (or more likely lynch syn and then me in lylo). Everyone pretty much rejected it except for kirro who was pushing me/syn as the scumteam(??) and didn't really accept/reject.

Technically being lynched here has slight value because if I was alive lylo I'd probably be lynched there instead and game over; only 2 of you are scum yet 5/6 scumread me so I know that's 3-4/4 town willing. I think it might be actually better in a practical sense to end the day early to buy more time for replacements/delay modkills but I'm not sure on the mechanics of that; I think kirro's town and I doubt anyone except for me or her would get lynched at this point d4 so there's not much point delaying things imo.

That's everything of value I have, good luck.

[Raskolnikov]

oh yeah, syn/gif is mostly because he used gr's post to defend syn at the same time as me; the expectation for one of those posts with 4 listed would actually be to usually have a scumpartner in there. I still think syn/MoI is way better if only because Gif's actually been furthering town wincon with massclaim, co-op with RC and defending me whereas MoI doubtcasted RC and wanted him lynched(while defending GR), discredits the fuck out of me and seems more or less apathetic about my lynch and in general what the lynch target is.

[Raskolnikov]

But if she flips town like I think she will I'm like 100% sure I'll be insta ml'd in lylo with how much everyone hates me and game over.

[Raskolnikov]

No, I think she's probably (90%) town but I just can't see town winning if she's town+mislynched, whereas I think there's at least a chance if people rethink the game after my flip

[Raskolnikov]

But it's really tempting to because it looks she's getting modkilled anyways

[Raskolnikov]

fuck it
purely out of self preservation
VOTE: Kirroha

[Raskolnikov]

hey dwlee

deadlines soon and its looking like its down to either me or kirroha (who is afk)

With the inactivity/apathy I think trying for anything else will probably end up in another nolynch like day 1

[Raskolnikov]

Less than a day.

It's weird this is already our third game together, it doesn't really feel like it?

[Raskolnikov]

(expired on 2016-04-23 23:00:00) remains in Day Four

Oh and you're probably getting nightkilled tonight too because vig with claimed kill in a game with gunsmith is pretty much conftown.
lol

[Raskolnikov]

everyone claims VT except for you. JK and GS died n1 n3.
Also we have gunsmith passes on implosion and GiF.

[Raskolnikov]

I honestly don't know gunsmith mechanics particularly well. People (esp RC the gunsmith) were mentioning scum doctor possibility because it would stop vig + pass gunsmith checks.

[Raskolnikov]

Hurrah!

[Raskolnikov]

Are we going to use the deadline extension to do anything?

[Raskolnikov]

I can see actually see it being syn/implosion now

VOTE: implosion

You guys refused to wagon syn but can we at least get this going? Actually have some time that we can use if we aren't super apathetic and lazy

[Raskolnikov]

The only thing that makes it a little weird is how they push me together whereas scum might hesitate to do that.
But then again it's not actually saying anything (subverted?) because 5/6 slots wanted me dead earlier so that technically applies to every team without GiF.

[Raskolnikov]

idk how town-syn would be satisfied reading me on mostly vibes after our last game where she mislynched me on 'vibes' and we lost.
She doesn't seem uncertain about her read because she isn't really engaging me or looking for scum elsewhere, but she hasn't really pushed me hard either and just reads super apathetic (i.e. scum).

[Raskolnikov]

Like literally everyone left is townreading her and I just don't get it

[Raskolnikov]

Ok, going to hammer in a bit.

[Raskolnikov]

Syndesis can you give full reads? If you're town you're all I'm seeing from you for the past few days is a weak "mostly vibes" push on me and like almost nothing regarding anyone else. What are your townreads and other scumreads; if you're doing this mostly PoE then who are you PoEing out/what is your process?

[Raskolnikov]

Hammering in ~6 hours

[Raskolnikov]

For the record this is stupid. Not the linking of pairs mind you – the concept we would lynch into Implosion / GiF who are Gunsmith clears before we get confirmation (via second scum non-Doctor flip) that one could be a false clear.

You're saying it's stupid to lynch in gunsmith clears essentially because its lower percentage, but realistically if it is syn/imp and people refuse to do syn there wouldn't actually be a better move.
Although I was also wondering if anyone would express interest just to see associations with imp and sort-of kirroha (cw-esque).

@Dwlee ink is GiF and rubixxx is MoI

[Raskolnikov]

Entrance is okay, asks questions. I actually liked her vote on me because I thought she'd want to engage me after our last game and use the experience to read me but she didn't really do that or follow it up. Went from voting me to voting who I was voting after I said I townread her which was weird but not terrible.

553 puts TG to l-2 after someone unvoted (slot was getting replaced + deadline wasn't close)
664 unvotes when it's put to L-1 to vote the person who did the l-1'ing (ink/gif)
749 votes kill
When GR replaces TG syn doesn't say a single thing to/about GR until day 2 though he was the leading wagon
848 (still day 1) votes IAI.
Not much else until deadline passes, passed the deadline does tj vote.

Day 1 review: low content earlyday, when GR's slot gets wagoned the first time and replaced she votes him after someone unvotes but jumps off to try to wagon 3 different people. Isn't explicitly townreading the slot, not interacting with it at all, and pushes the other wagons but doesn't tell people not to vote this one.
One of the three votes (TJ) she expressed interest in voting TJ before but KTS and IAI came out of nowhere (KTS was a reaction test if you believe 810 815). I don't get the IAI one that close to deadline considering TJ had votes on him; she went into deadline not going back to TJ until the deadline was already passed; the thread was locked late since mod was afk. If I was in her pos I wouldn't have stopped voting TJ (her #1 scumread that day) when he was a potential lynch for deadline, and I would either be for or against the TG/GR lynch. If against it I'd tell people why he's town and try to redirect, if for it I'd obviously vote and stay and try to push it. If indifferent/null you should be voting it at that point just because deadline was hours away and you want to avoid nolynch as town.

Also looking at this I notice ink putting TG to L-1 which I really like for the slot (GiF).

Day 2
1037 1122 rule of three suggests there's a scum in here esp in the latter two, and I think it's syn.
GR votes syn but it's just the first vote; gr syn are fine with beeboy lynch but not on it, which is conspicuous for syn because she was really scumreading that slot earlier.
also GR actually casts shade on ink again here by questioning townreads on him.

Day 3
already talked about this. Syn does vote GR though GR goes off of syn to 'compromise' with a lynch on me.
Syn doesn't really push it and GR pushes it while voting me. As syn/gr get more scumread and it looks like one of the two will be lynched anyways they actually interact and start casing each other.
I think at that point it's day 3 and they're both scumread and thinking one will be lynched anyways they bus like this so whichever one survives looks good. I also respect RC's opinion on this when he says he saw it as a bussing interaction (considering he lynched GR). I think it's also a characteristic of bussing to act really convinced in it more-so than town usually is, and particularly for syndesis who's been wishy-washy af for everthing else this game I don't really buy it.

In general aside from the posts d3 on GR which are different from all her others, it's low content and there's nothing that I can actually look at and say that's a reasoned, nuanced town perspective. Everyone else at least has their moments but apart from the GR syn thing which I think is bussing and constructed I don't see her having done scumhunting. Even if you don't see it as a bus can you give me a reason you're townreading her?

[Raskolnikov]

I've already said most of this though.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum will have to kill Dwlee so you can actually answer these tomorrow MoI, although the benefit of talking now is that dwlee could weigh in for/against.

[Raskolnikov]

I've already said most of this though.

On the bright side I feel better about GiF after doing that.

[Raskolnikov]

Dwlee thoughts on what I said about syn?

Also if you can leave parting notes:
Who do you think is scum if kirroha flips town?
Who do you think is scum if kirroha flips scum?

I'll hammer after you answer or you can do it in your answering posts

[Raskolnikov]

ISO me and tell me I haven't been casing and pushing syndesis all of today.

[Raskolnikov]

I generally hate making big cases because it's a ton of work and I never convince people with them, except when I end up completely wrong on them anyways. None of you were in open 627 or mini 1766 :/
One day I wanna be an AtE god that reads everyone on gut and doesn't use standard logic or cases to win the game.

[Raskolnikov]

^not entirely serious

[Raskolnikov]

I think that if you're scum you almost have to put a scumpartner in there among the four.
If I were you and townreading syn I would actually consider it being me rather than all four being town, although that's just for the post in isolation and not regarding anything else.

I think it's a huge scum association tell to soft-bus and be "suspicious" of a partner while not actually trying for their lynch (the best association being when/if they then leave that wagon for no good reason when it gets close to lynch), and that scum generally want their partners in a null or scum sort of area because they feel like it leaves a bad tell to have them townread but not the scummiest day 1/2 because that would force you to push and possibly lynch them.

[Raskolnikov]

Notice how of those 4 names he voted 3 of them up until that point, all syn was least likely to be lynched then as well.

As far as associations go having a vote on someone as your only vote (gr's d2 syn vote) means diddly especially when there's another wagon that's a ml going on that everyone's okay with and will almost definitely go through. It would be different if he tried to get people from beeboy onto syn but as is there's no real bussing or substantial pushing from the two on each other until day 3.

[Raskolnikov]

Hammering in (expired on 2016-04-25 18:00:00)

[Raskolnikov]

If you are going to bus you do it in a way that reads as Town. Clearly their interactions didn’t do that given that Radiant called it bussing behavior.

Quick note, this is circular logic and not actually a thing. Basically by that logic nobody can ever catch bussing because it will always read pure town and win the game and you can replace "bus" here with anything scum do.

I'm feeling better about you and GiF now after our exchange so even if I'm right on kirroha I think this can still be done lylo. I hope I'm wrong though, which is a weird situation to be in, technically I could also be right on one of the things and wrong on the other (haven't looked into syn/kirro too much).

But hopefully we can talk more d5 since scum should kill dwlee.

[Raskolnikov]

Ugh I didn't even notice that fishing until now, I just read the quotes separately.

[Raskolnikov]

I was hoping for more from dwlee considering his conftown with a few hours left but I can empathise with him not reading 75 pages when he's about to die anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

never mind

[Raskolnikov]

Whenever I think of kirroha I'm just reminded of how hard she's been pushing that GR slot pretty much everyday.
Kirroha/syn/gr would actually be really weird because it would be an extreme OTT bussing scumteam considering kirroha pushed both of them as well as gr/syn doing each other so I don't really like that tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

Oh and if she's actually scum that post hopefully illustrates what I was saying earlier in 1997.
But no I don't really like syn/kirroha as a team.

Bussing.is.scummy

Okay?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kirroha

I hope I'm wrong I guess?

[Raskolnikov]

A bit disappointed yesterday came down to me-or-kirroha, and whichever 2 of you were town and refused to lynch outside of that. I've lost my last two lylos and I'll be salty af if this goes the same way.

Anyways, I'm fairly confident in my MoI read from our talk yesterday and particularly feel that he was genuinely convinced kirro would flip scum. Things like the analysis in 1915 seems to be pushing the partner narrative too far considering scum-MoI would know it's useless because kirro was town, and scum generally push theories this far if they have actual value for later; i.e. it's inefficient to setup a ton of kirroha-imp scumteam theorycrafting if as scum you know it's useless since kirroha's getting lynched.

GiF and Implosion are easy then because at least one has to be town from the gunsmith clears, and that means syndesis has to be the partner to whichever is scum by PoE. Also townreading GiF for his play and bad(as in unlikely for scum) association with GR I mentioned yesterday, also factoring in the gunsmith check.
Even if I'm wrong on my MoI read, which I doubt, he would probably still be scum with syndesis though.

syn/imp >>> syn/moi > syn/gif (I'm not 100% on the order of these latter two) > imp/Moi.

Thankfully GiF/moi I can rule out from rubixxx/ink interactions back in day 1-2.

imp/MoI is harder because imp scum meta from what I saw is hard defending scumpartners but he almost takes it too far with his rubixxx defending (based on gut too), it's actually absurd if you read his ISO. From rubixx's side I don't see anything too bad though and 559 is actually pretty creative if they're scumpartners. I'm wary of using MoI for assocations because I expect scum-MoI to not leave anything obvious, but I don't see anything here standing out as evidence for imp/moi team, 1915 being slightly against it. I think overall this relationship is most likely scum Imp hard-buddying town-moi's slot using the rubixxx emotion as an excuse. Mostly the imp/moi review just makes me feel even worse about impl individually though. Particularly feel like he's prepared gif/me as a push for later back in 1844 1907.

In practice this means syn lynch >>> imp lynch today, the only scenario in which imp is better being if I misread syn AND one of MoI/GiF, which I really doubt after being right on kirro.
If it's syn/imp as it probably is the order here is irrelevant though.

As for actual syn/imp interaction, Syn ISO doesn't have much content for associations, there's a weak tonal tr on imp and that's pretty much it. Implosion for most of the game had no actual scumreads (cited lack of motivation) but when he went into it he had syn as "scummy but less scummy than rask" if you take near bottom of his list to mean scummy; he actually phrased it as being the weakest townreads amongst townreading everyone lol. See my earlier post on scum having scum around that near-bottom-but-never-quite category. Until the GR flip, at which point he starts to townread syn and says it isn't bussing, didn't he second-guess even a bit unlike everyone else who at least considered what I said about it. Honestly no smoking guns via interaction, but no evidence against the association plus both being individually scummy plus townreads elsewhere and other teams looking unlikely makes me fairly convinced on this.

I'm better still on the GiF slot with an ink re-read though I didn't like ink way back when for some reason. With GiF/imp and GiF/Moi out the only thing possible is syn/GiF which is a bad association considering syn's push on ink d2 (bussing 1 partner is ok but bussing both seems ludicrous). I wish GiF himself was more involved in this game though.

The only thing I'm slightly paranoid of is MoI almost entirely from the day 3 play discrediting RC and the kirro read feeling disproportionally based on her VT crumb and ideas, but logically I know that everyone accepting kirro yesterday means both other town were wrong there too, and if I have to find the person who looked the most convinced-yet-wrong-anyways as opposed to straight up lazy and settling (the latter blends in with scum) it would be him.

But yeah 90% it's syn/imp and going to vote syn unless anyone objects.

[Raskolnikov]

The 1 for 1 thing also thought about more. If I was syndesis as town scumreading me I would feel better than she did to take that 1 for 1 especially if it was me first, furthermore if she was town I'd expect at least one of the actual scum to support it as well because it's basically a free win for them setting up an easy lylo ml on either. This scenario has 3 people with some motivation to support it and I'd expect at least 1/3 to bite; town rejecting being traded for their #1 scumread is believable but combined with both of the scum being against the narrative as well I feel is really unlikely. Even if you're town and you hate the concept: when you're in a scenario where you want your scumread lynched and the lynch instead is someone you're settling on (syn said she thought scum was me+GiF), I think you'd at least consider it or just be a little bit or mildy opposed. She talked to me when I suggested it as if I was being stupid when she should have instead seen it as malicious or scum-motivated from a town pov talking to their scumread. I would have also wanted a town syn to push me with more conviction especially after being 'right' about GR; though this is a more minor thing.
I also think scum should have also setup suspicion onto syn if she was town as well for next-day preparation when it looked like my lynch was most likely; playing both sides of a TvT and using it to get both seems like optimal scumplay in that scenario. Looking back I do see this thinking used on me and kirroha but the only person I remember using it for me+syn (I see 1 scum in the two and this statement allows me to get the other tomorrow if one is ml'd) is MoI but him having that perspective as town considering the gs innos makes perfect sense; think about it.

I'm actually surprised though, I didn't think I would get this much information from analysing and thinking about it but it sort of became an accidental reaction test. I was mostly just desperate from that shitty situation and wanted it not to be an insta-loss if I got lynched since I was/am pretty damn sure on my syn read: 1 for 1 with potential for 1 for 0 is essentially win-mostlywin. I think me being lynched there would have been instaloss in retrospect because kirroha probably would've been lynched the following lylo, or even the one after that if people pulled through. As it is I think we'll be okay surprisingly unless I'm horrendously wrong after all my research, which has happened before (x_x), or if MoI soft-180s.

[Raskolnikov]

Eh, I guess you guys have to reconsider the game after that flip, for me this is pretty much yesterday though.

[Raskolnikov]

zzzzzzzzz

[Raskolnikov]

Play the game or replace out. I'm not as convinced on you as I am on syn but if you're town you should realize you're being useless by refusing to ISO/re-read and coming to no conclusions in your analysis; either step up or get out but I don't care about your personal struggle to find motivation. "I think gif is scum but the other three feel strong town and hey we shouldn't lynch gif" doesn't contribute to this game and I think you're more likely scum abusing apathy because it's safer than faking nuanced town stances and thought processes. If I had no motivation in this situation I'd at least attempt to help even if it's deciding who I marginally feel worse/better about and asking questions or trying to engage people if I can't be bothered ISOing them. I would be too embarrassed of myself to post into Lylo what you did and I'd also have shown some remorse being in the game without really playing it for as long as you have.

If you're town you have to realize that playing like you are isn't going to let anyone be able to read you as town because we can't follow along with your thoughts and views to see if they're genuine if you don't actually have any substantial thoughts and views to analyse. It's incredibly easy for scum to play or fake apathy, but it isn't even necessary because scum can be genuinely be lacking in motivation (in this case motivation to fake towny looking posts and analysis) and scum are obviously going to be apathetic about doing(faking) town things they don't care about like "scumhunting" and "figuring the game out" which is why they have to pretend to care about them most of the time.

If you don't agree with my points on syn then go into detail and we can have a discussion about it, just saying you don't agree with something (but it feels like it's coming from town) doesn't do anything to push the game forward; if you pointed out someone's post and said it felt scummy that would at least be a stance and something of substance but pointing out things you think feel town when you have 3 strong townreads doesn't mean anything.
How do you think scum would act as opposed to what I said in 2020?
Why do you think syn or moi don't make sense as scum?

[Raskolnikov]

See, if MoI's scum he's at least putting effort in to pretending to care.

[Raskolnikov]

@mod I think Gif is in prod range?

[Raskolnikov]

Poked you and you gave me this beautiful scumpost

There is a difference in you and dwlee, and a huge difference between syn/you vs everyone else in the game. It's presence. Dwlee came in and clearly tried to figure the game out with what little time he had; though technical analysis was limited I could see he was trying and follow a progression in his thinking. MoI's been very clear with his stances and we had an extensive engage so I know there's depth there, and I've seen played with maybe a handful of people who could fake that level of town thought process. Even GiF though he's been a lurksac I can say has contributed to this game; getting us to massclaim and having had actual stances shown when he townread me and stuck up for me yesterday. You're content to sit on old gut-reads and actually defending yourself having no scumreads. I'll tell you what town would do having 2 strong/high-depth townreads in your position in syn and rubixx; PoE and then push onto me and GiF. I know as a fact you wouldn't have made this post if I didn't prompt you do so and everything you say about trying to figure the game out means squat when you never "show your work"; do you think people would just take your word for it? And don't tell me about the "struggle" this game was; it wasn't replacements that ruined this game, it was everyone being lurking sacks who can't even meet lynch deadline day 1. That's why we needed replacements and why I'd welcome any more.

I've seen town struggling before and this isn't it. I've been town in a position where I wasn't sure about any read and it's not like this; it's a hellish situation but you sound content and if I had to summarise your play with a word it would be complacent. Idk how you manage you defend it so strongly; I don't know how town in your position could end up with that warped perspective of their own place in a game.

[Raskolnikov]

This is also hell though.
Stuck talking with scum while town is V/LA + afk and even though I'm 100% on my reads I can only hope and essentially pray neither of them screws up :/

[Raskolnikov]

I don't know how you still care about this game so much, regardless of your alignment.

I really want to win after personally screwing up my last two lylos; this game was really shitty early but the mass claim, GR lynch and gs innos made it interesting and very winnable. In general I have to play through information and analysis instead of feeling or gut; through trying to follow someone's progression through the game (does their stance make sense going from x->y->z) and interactions, especially ruling out partner associations; it's really shitty day 1 and 2 but really fun lategame. I kind of wish I could play more intuitively and just read people with gut feel but I don't have the social skills for that and I've failed horrendously when I've tried that approach. This is offtopic af and you're probably scum anyways so idk why I'm even answering, I guess there's nothing else to talk about atm though.

Saying GiF has had more presence than me is just patently absurd and pretends that I haven't done anything this game. Which I have.

Okay that was probably an exaggeration; I think it's about the same if you're only talking about GiF (not ink). When I say presence I mean impact on the game; GiF in his short time got us to massclaim, developed reads and defended his townread on me preventing that wagon, whereas it feels like you've been completely static with no scumreads since about day 3 and I'll admit I'm biased towards the former. Comparing slots as a whole is a different story because of ink's play, and if I were to ignore that it'd be a lot harder to judge but as is I like the overall slot way more. As it is it's pretty irrelevant since we have to lynch outside the innos today and I only want syn, and at this point I'm not sure if it'll go to day six anyways.

Idk, call me crazy but I feel like I have some obligation to win this even if nobody else cares; dragging what's left of the game to the finish line if I have to. Naturally if I'm wrong it'll suck but regardless of the outcome I wouldn't feel comfortable with myself if I wasn't putting all my effort into it. There's nothing you can learn from a game if you didn't even try and I personally would sooner replace out of a game than give up but stay anyways, but again I think you're way more likely just scum feeling good/complacent about your chances to win lylo either today or tomorrow with this "I'm town with no motivation" shtick. I'll give it to you, it's decent play considering the site meta because I usually see scum favour excuses and defend their apathy rather than straight up admitting they have a screwed pov + they don't care and probably won't in future; you went about half-and-half here with 2032 being the former and elsewhere the latter.

[Raskolnikov]

@mod

replace GiF?

[Raskolnikov]

Can it please be monday already?

[Raskolnikov]

Is everyone here?

[Raskolnikov]

*anyone

[Raskolnikov]

It's worth mentioning the thing that makes me feel so sure on syn is how syn is in comparison to everyone else instead of in isolation; syn doesn't have any shining moment where I can feel confident thinking "That's a genuine town perspective". You, GiF and even rarely implosion (though I think he's prob partner) have various posts and/or actions throughout the game which make me want to townread you, whereas syn's defining action/contribution this game was her gr case and I already went over why I thought it was really dodgy.

[Raskolnikov]

case still coming soon (tm) in the meantime have

one

two

four reasons ras is scum:

Let's dispel once and for all this fiction that Kirroha doesn't know what she's doing. She knows exactly what she's doing. Kirroha is undertaking a systematic effort to change this game, to make 1762 more like the rest of the world. We don't want to be like the rest of the world, we want to be 1762. And when I'm elected president, this will become once again, the single greatest nation in the history of the world, not the disaster Kirroha has imposed upon us.

- this post do not like it's shady and kind of weird

[Raskolnikov]

I have no words for you if you're town and after replacing into the game d3 trying to lynch gunsmith, d4 kirroha, you finish off d5 losing lylo.
Like if you're saying you couldn't townread me from our exchange d4/5 and lynch off day 1-2 I won't even bother.

FYI the scramble near day 1 end was because it was going to be no-lynch and I'm one of a few people who were really trying to stay around to avoid it.

[Raskolnikov]

If I'm "appealing to fear" that's because I myself am upset at the possibility of losing this game despite being right on my scumreads for most of the game and I hate being this scenario where I can't do anything but just "hope" and "trust" other people to play it well. I probably shouldn't take it out on you but I am pretty invested in this and I'm starting to get flashbacks to my last Lylo (where I was really upset and it got me mislynched for "AtE"..). If syn and imp scum win this game having put literally 0 effort into it I just don't know.

Whatever, I'll let you finish and maybe come in later for any questions. I'll try to calm down.

[Raskolnikov]

We'll talk about it post-game, I'm sorry if I come off condescending or arrogant. Ironically enough your responses do just convince me further because I'm townreading you for them; from my pov you town and gif/imp not being a possible team confirms my syn read. But I know you can't just take my word for it and we can't really resolve this discussion in any meaningful way just through the nature of the situation, I'll drop the subject.

If you think about it there are 3 possibilities here
a) We're both town and that means I'm right about my reads (at least syn) and most of what I'm saying.
b) You're scum, and that means this conversation is meaningless anyways because I'm not actually annoying you (scum obviously don't care when criticized for wrong reads). I doubt this; if you're scum here that would make you one of the top 3 scum I've ever played with for that d4 play.
c) I'm scum and that means what I'm saying is complete bullshit anyways so the criticism is irrelevant anyways
and in all 3 there's no situation in which I'm town talking to you town whilst being wrong about my reads. I wish you good luck though.

[Raskolnikov]

zzzzzzz

[Raskolnikov]

Oh hey "virtue". I believe we've played before.
I wonder what may have prompted you to replace into this.

[Raskolnikov]

We're basically lynching between me and syn today, so you can focus your catchup there.
VC is completely blank as it's LYLO.

[Raskolnikov]

Me, imp, and syn have been here from the start.
MoI replaced rubixxx, you replaced GiF who replaced ink.
The only scum that's flipped has been GR, who replaced TG who replaced shortcutbutton.
Implosion and yourself are gunsmith innos, but with presence of a vig earlier in the game we're thinking one of these could be scum-doctor.

I'm heavily townreading MoI and your slot and convinced it's syn/imp scum.
Syn and imp are pushing me/you scum.
MoI is undecided but I think he's leaning more to the latter and I'm feeling pretty pessimistic right now.

We're lynching within me/syn because it makes more sense than lynching in the gunsmith clears and the key topic of discussion has been whether you think syn/gr day 3 was bussing or not.

[Raskolnikov]

I'd gladly lynch implosion but if MoIs town and refusing to lynch outside of the clears we don't have a choice.
Functionally the order in which we get syn/imp is irrelevant though, as is the order if we don't and mislynch.

Technically MoI wanting to lynch outside of the clears would be a bit of evidence against syn/moi and a tiny bit for imp/moi but I'm pretty certain MoI's town from d4/5 anyways; read my exchange with him.
If you can see a different scumteam from syn/imp feel free to mention it and I'll tell you why I think you're wrong, I've looked into every possibility at least three times by now.

[Raskolnikov]

Thank god, now it's just up to MoI.

[Raskolnikov]

Hey, I am sure they are teammates.

Don't

go putting words in my mouth. Pretty sure at least 2 is.

[Raskolnikov]

prodge

[Raskolnikov]

It's actually significant that GR put syndesis second there, FTR.

[Raskolnikov]

prodge

[Raskolnikov]

Technically it's moreso your responsibility to be accurate than for anyone to change your mind.
Already said my piece and there's nothing else we can talk about if you're going to keep everything to yourself as you have been.

[Raskolnikov]

Like if you're gonna pull some "why couldn't you guys convince me better" bullshit you're getting 0 sympathy.

[Raskolnikov]

But hey, for all I know maybe you're right in whichever choice you're 95% on. I'm tired of worrying though so I just wish you'd come out with it already.

[Raskolnikov]

Who isn't doing anything endgame? Are you actually going to make it out as though I didn't put 100% of the effort I could have into this day 4 5?

[Raskolnikov]

Say what you want about me but I would never threaten to vote someone on the basis of me not liking them as opposed to actual critical thought.
If you think I'm scum feel free to vote me, but don't dare let your feelings about my attitude influence your decision.

[Raskolnikov]

My problem is you clearly want something more from me but aren't asking me questions or engaging me, rather you seem to expect to be spoonfed because of your position in the game. And you top it off by implying that out of everyone

I'm

the one not doing anything this game

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: syndesis
If MoI was scum instead then wp to him.
If it's some stupid shit like godfather+scumdoctor imp/titus then idgaf.

[Raskolnikov]

It tilts me that even in lylo this game drags on to deadline.

[Raskolnikov]

I bet the dead thread is more exciting than this shit.

[Raskolnikov]

Hey guys, did you know that mafia games have something called a "deadline"?
When this "deadline" is reached, and no "lynch" has been decided, the game goes into something called "no lynch".

[Raskolnikov]

In this "no lynch", no player is lynched, however night actions continue normally.
And our situation today, is a "LYLO", also known as a "LYnch Or Lose" scenario.
That means we have to "lynch" someone, usually done by voting them to majority, which is 3 today.
Conversely, if we do not "lynch" someone today, the evil informed minority team of the mafia will still get to "kill" someone.

[Raskolnikov]

This will put the number of town to 2, which in fact loses the game because of 2 mafia alive.
This is because the town must necessarily outnumber the mafia in order to have majority to allow lynches onto the mafia.
Therefore, with about one day left before our deadline, we must necessarily "lynch" someone to have any chance at eventually winning this game.
And so it may be prudent for town players who have not yet voted to strongly consider doing so.

[Raskolnikov]

Titus if you were scum instead of imp you would just lynch me here rather than bussing syn and dragging the game out, right?
I'm going to assume you are not in fact a sadist.

[Raskolnikov]

Really starting to wonder why townMoI decided to drag his decision/vote on for this long. If he was scum he'd just vote me with syn/imp and win but like why would he take this game hours to deadline when he already pretty much decided a few days ago?
I'm thinking he's actually writing along with his vote a big post explaining everything in it like he did in that thread he linked but I don't see the point in communicating your thoughts when it's too late for anyone to talk about it... at that level aren't you just justifying yourself for postgame in case you end up wrong? Whatever.

Anyways if everyone could just vote that'd be great, I'd rather lose in a mislynch and add that to my meta for defensive purposes than to have another nolynch ending this game.

[Raskolnikov]

Bwahahaha! I have fooled you all!

[Raskolnikov]

I'm kidding please lynch implosion tomorrow if I get NK'd.

[Raskolnikov]

The difference between implosion/titus is way less than the difference between syn and you (syn vs you is a laughable comparison) though, so idk if it's necessarily open and shut?

[Raskolnikov]

But I really liked titus's slot defending me especially yesterday, and I feel like she could've easily won today if scum by encouraging imp to just vote me as he was clearly willing to.
Looking back I townread the ink slot way more than imp independently, and even GiF was way better than imp in posts despite their activity levels being about the same.
GiF at least was pro-town af with the massclaim suggestion and actually showed concern for where that lynch was going at the end of the day.

[Raskolnikov]

I find it very amusing that nino and kirroha both wanted to lynch me and we'd have lost if they didn't replace out too.

[Raskolnikov]

Rask also has been wiling to antagonize me today which probably doesn’t come from scum who wants my tie-breaking vote in LYLO.

Having already given all the reasoning I could have, I figured the only thing left to do was try some AtE strats, if you'll believe that. I don't actually dislike you as a person, though every day dragging on like this and the gamestate being so dead was genuinely annoying. This game started in february and I've /in'd so many games while I was waiting for this to move, and they were great fun games but I was killed n1 in most of them and just went back to this to see nothing happened in the meanwhile. Several of the people in this game have since stopped playing onsite entirely and I suspect this experience as the cause for at least some of them. A huge thank-you to everyone who replaced in and helped salvage this, again in case I am nk'd.

Of course if it's some weird scenario and syn was actually town and we lost I'm making a big fool of myself for speaking like this, but whatever.

[Raskolnikov]

No, I'm town. If it was 3p lylo and the game was over I would've pretended to have been scum to troll until the flip, but at this point it was too risky since the game actually needed discussion on syn partners especially in case I died.

[Raskolnikov]

But yeah, it's a bit concerning the game was on a knife's edge especially yesterday and we almost lost despite scum not having played well.
I'm convinced that if either of the following happened
a) not every one of those players had flaked and got replaced
b) I got lynched instead of kirroha's slot yesterday, which probably would've happened if gif didn't defend me
we'd have just lost the game today.

[Raskolnikov]

I should not have joined this game.

Don't feel bad, you would have won if not for kirro, nino, and rubixxx all replacing out and said replacements being mostly reasonable people; all of these conditions had to be met. An unlikely thing to happen, in retrospect.
Your bussing also convinced most town initially, which is why I could not get you lynched you day 4.

[Raskolnikov]

PTs please?
Thanks for modding metrion!

[Raskolnikov]

Thanks for hosting! I dont think I did much since replacing in, I was against the raskol/kirro lynch but eventually I thought it was kirro. idk, again, gg

That's okay.
Voting kirroha there instead of me was important since if I had been lynched d4 kirroha almost certainly would've been mislynched in lylo.
Technically you being right on me and being wrong on kirroha isn't any more or less wrong than nino being right on kirroha and wrong on me, but because of the specific situation this game your views being different from nino's was one of the things that allowed us to win in the end.

[Raskolnikov]

@That does suck to hear, I'm sorry you had to play that role.
It explains a lot too, especially when I was looking back and didn't see any associations from you d1-3.
Combined with an actual feeling you gave off of not knowing what was going on it was really throwing things off when I tried to read you for most of the game.

[Raskolnikov]

*@implosion

[Raskolnikov]

Code: Select all

implosion - town- I think scum discussed kirroha's crumb, whereas implosion is ignorant/st

This is literally my day 1 note on you, since daytalk was explicitly enabled

[Raskolnikov]

Idk, apparently my d4d5 was super scummy desperation play. Which makes me wonder if the townier looking thing would've been to be apathetic

[Raskolnikov]

Next level strats, buddying mafia to avoid nk.

[Raskolnikov]

I bugged the listmod for the PTs a few days ago but no response as of yet :/