Open 633: Near Vanilla-GAME OVER

[RadiantCowbells]

yes you have. flip pls.

[kelbris]

vote count 2.09

Bellaphant

Virtue (0): none
Severa (1): SnarkySnowman

Jim Heuristically_Alone

Ranger (2): MagnaofIllusion, Ollie

jmo16mla

SnarkySnowman (7) [LYNCHED]: Severa, Imperium, Nosferatu, Ranger, Oceanwind, Massive, killthestory
MagnaofIllusion (0): none
Imperium (0): none
Killthestory (0): none

Lowell

Masquerade (1): Virtue
Nosferatu (0): none

acryon

Massive (0): none
OceanWind (0): none
Ollie (1): Masquerade
not voting:
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
day 2 has begun, it will end in (expired on 2016-05-04 20:01:46)

[kelbris]

at the end of a long day of voting and accusations, it was decided that SnarkySnowman would be the one to hang.

After he drew his final breath, the rest of the town checked his house and found...

SnarkySnowman,

Vanilla Townie

was lynched day 2. Night 2 has begun, it shall end in (expired on 2016-05-04 23:00:00)

[kelbris]

at the coming of the day's meeting, it was found that RC was missing. Upon inspection of RC's house, it was found that:

RadiantCowbells

Vanilla Townie

was killed Night 2.

[kelbris]

VC 3.01

Virtue (0): none
Ranger (0): none
MagnaofIllusion (0): none
Imperium (0): none
Killthestory (0): none
Masquerade (0): none
Nosferatu (0): none
Massive (0): none
OceanWind (0): none
Ollie (0): none
not voting: Virtue, Ranger, MagnaofIllusion, Imperium, killthestory, Masquerade, Nosferatu, Massive, OceanWind, Ollie
With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
day 3 has begun, it will end in (expired on 2016-05-19 01:10:00)

[Virtue]

VOTE: Nosferatu

Let's fight this out.

T: Imp, Ranger,Ocean, Magna, Ollie

[OceanWind]

VOTE: Ranger

The most compelling evidence here is that all three occupants of the slot were suspicious in several ways.

1. Jim's reads were stretchy, inconsistent, and didn't align with who he actually pushed.
2. heurstically_alone fits the profile of a newbie who didn't know what to do with a mafia role, and has opportunistic hops onto town wagons.
3. Ranger's read on SnarkySnowman and the confidence there just doesn't make sense to have on a player that is extremely difficult to read. It would have made sense if Ranger wanted Snarky dead as a utility lynch but to insist that he was definitely mafia seems more in line with sheeping RadiantCowbells. The read on Ollie looks fake as well because he's taking perfectly null posts and calling them town. The Imperium read is also based on a very unlikely scenario of them going out of their way to defend a partner and considering Snarky is town, I don't think Ranger ever intended to even push them.

I'm still working out who else I think is mafia with Ranger so expect more posts after a re-read.

[Ranger]

3. Ranger's read on SnarkySnowman and the confidence there just doesn't make sense to have on a player that is extremely difficult to read.

Okay so technically the game's not listed as officially over yet, but a hammer was dropped so the game's pretty much over pending only the mod announcement. So I can explain now.

SnarkySnowman was scum in Diffusion of Power. I link to a post which I made as a summary of the game. Read it. I said, very specifically, SnarkySnowman was a scummy scumperson D1. Now, read RC's post.

ss was a scumfuck
i vote scumfuck ss

RC was drunk, but this post, after

I

replaced in, felt like it was directly speaking to

me

about that, and saying, "This is the EXACT same SnarkySnowman from Diffusion of Power", which is why I voted him before reading. When I read the thread, I agreed with that assessment.

The read on Ollie looks fake as well because he's taking perfectly null posts and calling them town.

This is the same misrep. I have said, time and time again, that Ollie's posting has maintained the already-existing townread. (I mean, now would be a good day to look back on that and reassess, but that's not relevant.) Not been the basis of it.

I don't think Ranger ever intended to even push them.

Then why even start?

I'm mostly thinking scum are in {Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell, Ollie}. I'm not voting until I've had the time to fully reread the game thread.

[OceanWind]

1. How was Snarky's posting similar to that game? The only thing you've said about Snarky was that he makes more analysis posts when he's mafia.

2. I wasn't misrepping your Ollie read. Ollie was an early townread for you but that never changed even as his activity dipped. I asked you what of his recent posting you thought was town. You pointed out completely null and game-irrelevant posts and said that they were town.

3. What happened to your suspicion of Imperium? Did that disappear because you were wrong on Snarky? What changed that Ollie is now in your list of suspects?

[Ranger]

1. How was Snarky's posting similar to that game?

This was SnarkySnowman's iso that game.
This was SnarkySnowman's iso this game.
They looked nearly identical to me. This did not match my experience with him as town.

Ollie was an early townread for you but that never changed even as his activity dipped.

And I explicitly showed why: the posting maintained the read. It did not increase it. It maintained it. This, because Ollie (in contrast to, say, Lowell) was actually still making posts which could be read. I did not say the posts were town by themselves. I said that, when combined with earlier townier posting, the later posting was able to maintain the townread. VERY important distinction there. Posts maintaining an existing read are not the same as posts that can generate a read.

3. What happened to your suspicion of Imperium?

When Imperium actually started reaching out, it looked town. They also defended themselves against the majority of my points. (Not all, but the majority.) When you combine the two, you get me very strongly reconsidering my read. Though...

Did that disappear because you were wrong on Snarky?

This certainly helps, yes. The disappearance of the scumread existed well before the SnarkySnowman flip, but with it, any lingering traces have evaporated.

What changed that Ollie is now in your list of suspects?

That's not a list of suspects as much as it is a list of people I'm so much as looking at.

I'm not looking at MagnaofIllusion. I'm not looking at Imperium. I'm not looking at Killthestory. I'm not looking at Nosferatu. In hindsight, probably should have included massive in the list, but you get the idea.
{Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell, Ollie, massive} is where I'm focusing my effort on in my reread. Three of the names there are scum. If you were to ask me right now, I'd say {Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell}. However, I

am

going to reread, fully and entirely.

[OceanWind]

1. How was Snarky's posting similar to that game?

This was SnarkySnowman's iso that game.
This was SnarkySnowman's iso this game.
They looked nearly identical to me. This did not match my experience with him as town.

How did it not match your experience with him as town? I need something more than the superficial "ISOs are identical." You could pull up a town ISO and call it identical. What was the similarity that wasn't there in his townplay?

3. What happened to your suspicion of Imperium?

When Imperium actually started reaching out, it looked town. They also defended themselves against the majority of my points. (Not all, but the majority.) When you combine the two, you get me very strongly reconsidering my read. Though...

Did that disappear because you were wrong on Snarky?

This certainly helps, yes. The disappearance of the scumread existed well before the SnarkySnowman flip, but with it, any lingering traces have evaporated.

What of their defense was persuasive? I and they argued the same point - that it was dumb to suspect them of going out of their way to defend a partner. That didn't persuade you the first time so I don't see how it would after several iterations of the same argument.

What do you mean "Imperium's reach out?" Are you talking about where they told Radiant that he was a good player? Where they said they are voting Snarky because they think Radiant is likely to be right? Why was that town?

Radiant's play wasn't productive. As much as he may be your favorite player, his pouting about how he's the best and everyone should follow him for no reason while not communicating with anyone else wasn't helping the town wincon. I would have been annoyed even if Snarky flipped mafia and Radiant was lucky. As it turned out, he wasn't. You and Imperium because of your history and friendship with Radiant tolerated that behavior. I found yours suspicious because your scumread on Snarky seemed to exist purely because that's the lynch Radiant wanted to push. Imperium were at least trying to read Snarky on their own too so I didn't find it suspicious but their talk with Radiant seemed null to me.

What changed that Ollie is now in your list of suspects?

That's not a list of suspects as much as it is a list of people I'm so much as looking at.

What's the difference between "suspect" and "list of people you are looking at?"

I'm not looking at MagnaofIllusion. I'm not looking at Imperium. I'm not looking at Killthestory. I'm not looking at Nosferatu. In hindsight, probably should have included massive in the list, but you get the idea.
{Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell, Ollie, massive} is where I'm focusing my effort on in my reread. Three of the names there are scum. If you were to ask me right now, I'd say {Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell}. However, I

am

going to reread, fully and entirely.

Why aren't you looking at MagnaOfIllusion? Give me something more than "his playstyle is similar to RedCoyote's" and a link to RedCoyote's ISO as mafia. Actual, concrete reasons why you are reading MagnaOfIllusion as town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Imperium

– Again you were my number 1 Town read going into Night 2 and the kill doesn’t change that. I need you to talk to me and give me your reads on Ocean and Kill. And with some whys would be great. I have some things I think I am seeing but want confirmation from an outside source.

SnarkySnowman was scum in Diffusion of Power. I link to a post which I made as a summary of the game. Read it. I said, very specifically, SnarkySnowman was a scummy scumperson D1. Now, read RC's post.

VOTE: Ranger

Funny thing about this explanation – when you kept harping on how you knew Snarky was scum that couldn’t be explained this is the first game I came across with Snarky as flipped scum. I read his ISO and the conclusion I came to was “Whelp that doesn’t read like Snarky here at all”. Everyone else is free to follow the links and judge for themselves but Snarky’s ISO from that game shows much more verbosity and interaction (starting around ISO 9 is where it diverges visibly to me). In fact Post 396 / ISO 18 is such a radially different post than anything SS provided this game I can’t believe Ranger’s stance. 397 / ISO 19 the same – Snarky actually parses more than one person on his wagon.

[Ollie]

lol @ Ranger putting me in her suspects list or whatever she's calling it, she spent half of yesterday finding reasons for why my posts were town. Snarky flipping town didn't do her any favours after the way she voted for him. VOTE: Ranger

I'm eager to see how I read Masquerade after Lowell's shit show. & I'm a bit concerned about how the Acryon/Massive slot is going under the radar.

I like who

@Virtue

is suspecting apart from Ranger, why is she town? In answer to your question. yeah I felt like she was probably distancing with Lowell. He appears almost town & almost scum in Ranger's early lists, & later she makes a point of bringing him up to RC. But I don't have any real confidence in shit like that til after I see a scum flip, you can tend to see what you want to see.

[Nosferatu]

How am I supposed to VCA if we don't have scumflip

[Lowell]

I forget everything that's happening in this game. But I'm here. Will think about it, then vote haphazardly.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I forget everything that's happening in this game. But I'm here. Will think about it, then vote haphazardly.

Lol you were already replaced ....

[Ollie]

I forget everything that's happening in this game. But I'm here. Will think about it, then vote haphazardly.

welp, Lowell is getting force-replaced.

we have finally found a replacement for Lowell, please welcome masquerade to the game.

[massive]

I'm mostly thinking scum are in {Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell, Ollie}.

{Virtue, OceanWind, Lowell, Ollie, massive} is where I'm focusing my effort on in my reread. Three of the names there are scum.

Did I do something in between these two posts to make you go, "Oh yeah, massive is scum!"

[Lowell]

Oh. Okay. Would have been nice to get a notice to that effect of some type.

[Lowell]

well GL masq.... let me know if you need a hydra partner...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks for making me look at Snarky's ISO to see if that was true, Magna. I agree that Snarky doesn't have the force of personality to railroad an "easy lynch" on just about anybody. The "case" on Severa is a lot of "can we vote Severa now?" and not much else. I know some people can push magical reads as gospel without being willing to give any reasons (cough RADIANT COWBELLS cough) but if Snarky is trying this, he's failing pretty hard.

But I did find this gem

A - I thought both CoM and Severa were scummy, but definitely not of the same alignment. I thought Severa/RC was way more likely to be scum than CoM. I wasn't wrong to not be on the CoM wagon, which I thought was probably town.

Sweet plea for towncred. Doesn't really match THIS

Intent to vote CoM. I have no idea what the count is right now and don't want to derphammer.

but it's a good try.

VOTE: Snarky

So massive why don't you elaborate on the fact why that set of quotes made you think Snarky was scum. That would be wonderful.

Also reads of at least three scum given you had all overnight to read up is pretty much mandatory at this point. Thanks!

[Ollie]

Virtue why the change from Masquerade to Nos?

I've no idea what to make of the Lowell/Masquerade slot now.

[Masquerade]

I started reading from page 1 during night (instead of from Day 2..) and I came to page 34. I read superficially, and I kinda thought jim (he's still in the slot where I ended) was town.. Imp is actually probtown as well. I kind of digged the scumreads on Ollie much earlier.
I don't have strong opinions on anyone (the only one I was sure that's town was RC fyi) I still have about half the thread to read up on, and when I'm done with that I plan to iso a handful of players as I can only focus on so much at one time. Not sure who yet but Ranger will be one of those as she's getting heat rn.
While reading up I'll also keep up with the new posts so I don't get behind more. And if anyone wants to help me out; it will help my focus if I'm asked questions because rn I feel like I'm looking for a needle in a haystack..

[Masquerade]

Oh. Okay. Would have been nice to get a notice to that effect of some type.

That would have been nice idd.
About your hydra-question: do you mean for here? I don't know what the rules about that are, I never hydra'd before. But if the mod allows it I'm ok with finishing this game together.

[Masquerade]

Will get back later, time for dinner.