Mini 1786: Inspirational Mafia (Game Over)

[Kmd4390]

Katsuki

(4)- Untrod Tripod,

xyzzy,Thestatusquo, implosion

Creature (2)- MagnaofIllusion, BlueBloodedToffee
drmyshottyizsik (2)-

kagesong

, Kmd4390
Untrod Tripod (1)- SnarkySnowman

kagesong

(1)- Lowell
xyzzy (1)- Creature
Lowell (1)- drmyshottyizsik

Thestatusquo (1)- Katsuki

^Interesting. First serious wagon and 3/4 confirmed town. Look for scum to jump on later, especially if UT is town and especially considering that Kat said he was claiming power role later on.

Katsuki

(6)- Untrod Tripod,

xyzzy, Thestatusquo, implosion,

BlueBloodedToffee, MagnaofIllusion (L-1)
drmyshottyizsik (2)-

kagesong

, Kmd4390
Untrod Tripod (1)- SnarkySnowman

kagesong

(1)- Lowell

xyzzy

(1)- Creature
Lowell (1)- drmyshottyizsik

Thestatusquo (1)- Katsuki

There really shouldn't be any way that UT/BBT/Magna are all town. Hell, BBT/Magna probably shouldn't both be town here. However, BBT is town for the replace out. I need to consider the possibility UT and/or Magna being scum.

Hammer came from confirmed town and not much else changed so no point looking at the final Day 1 vote count.

Lowell (3)-

implosion

, Untrod Tripod, drmyshottyizsik
Creature (2)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion

Thestatusquo

(1)- SnarkySnowman
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390
^Hard to take too much from that until we see some consilidation and/or scum flips. The simple answer is that there is scum in UT/Drmy and that Lowell is town, but there are just too many holes and variables to say that with any real certainty.

implosion

(2)- SnarkySnowman, BlueBloodedToffee
Creature (2)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion
Lowell (1)- Untrod Tripod
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390
BlueBloodedToffee (1)- drmyshottyizsik
SnarkySnowman (1)-

implosion

Again, this is hard because there's no dead scum and 2/3 confirmed town aren't voting in this one but the thing that stands out is that the Lowell wagon died. However, confirmed town jumped off. Drmy switched to BBT alone. And UT stayed. So it's not like anything huge came from it. The day became Implosion vs Creature and no one on the Lowell wagon did anything to change it to that, so *shrug*. Maybe you can argue that because Implosion flipped town, it makes Creature more likely scum, but that feels like a stretch just based on these two votes. I remember him getting more though so maybe that will have some merit before I'm done here.

Creature (4)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion, drmyshottyizsik,

Thestatusquo

implosion

(2)- SnarkySnowman, BlueBloodedToffee
SnarkySnowman (2)-

implosion

, Untrod Tripod
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390

So. Three scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Creature is town. In this case, scum don't have any reason to worry unless Snark is scum. Let's do Snark town first. Scum are probably spread out among the three wagons. So one of Lowell/Magna/drmy, BBT, and UT. I'm not really finding this scenario likely.
Scenario 2 - Same as the first, but with Snark as scum. In this one, UT is probably town and Snark's buddies are on the Creature wagon (Lowell, Magna, Drmy). Because Drmy was on the earlier Lowell wagon, either he was bussing or Magna is scum. In this scenario, scum is likely to shift to the Implosion mislynch later.
Scenario 3 - Creature is scum. Watch for scum to jump all over the Implosion wagon in this case. UT and Snark look bad in this scenario for the simple fact of being off the Creature wagon. (Sorry, I know confirmation bias is showing on BBT but he belongs in this group too technically.

implosion

(5)- SnarkySnowman, BlueBloodedToffee, Kmd4390, MagnaofIllusion,Creature (L-1)
Creature (3)- Lowell, drmyshottyizsik,

Thestatusquo

SnarkySnowman (2)-

implosion

, Untrod Tripod

Ok let's make sense of what happened here. I joined the Implosion wagon and was immediately joined by Magna (who was voting Creature) and Creature (who voted out of self preservation regardless of his own alignment). So, again, Creature's flip is critical to a legitimate analysis, but let's try the scenario game again:
Scenario 1 - Creature is town. Magna is likely scum who jumped ship. Snark was likely scum already on the wagon and Lowell or drmy stayed put on Creature.
Scenario 2 - Creature is scum. Snark still looks bad tbh. And someone is bussing somewhere. Creature town looks more likely I think.

implosion

(6)- SnarkySnowman, Kmd4390, Creature, Aristophanes, Untrod Tripod, drmyshottyizsik (LYNCH)
Creature (3)- Lowell,

Thestatusquo, I Am Innocent

drmyshottyizsik (1)-

implosion

And we end up here. Either Magna and Lowell are BOTH scum who managed to stay off the wagon or this lynch is absolutely loaded with scum. It could be as simple as 2-3 of Snark/UT/drmy with 0-1 of Lowell/Magna or I could be wrong about Creature which explains scum's interest in the Implosion lynch (Creature/Snark/drmy?). I do remember UT hanging on to his Snark vote and only voting implosion to avoid no lynch and unlike drmy, he feels consistent in saying that. So Snark and drmy look like scum if Creature is town and one of Lowell/Magna would be a partner.

Conclusion
So basically here's what has changed in my reads:
Lowell: I wasn't entirely sure where to put him before, but I'm confident he's town now.
UT: Same as Lowell, but not quite as strong.

Magna: I see a lot of scenarios where he is scum. I was shelving him for reasons I don't feel like getting into, but I remember his Kat vote being pretty bad and he seemed to not really care who we lynched between Creature and Implosion. I can see Magna as scum, but not with Creature. Also, I know it's lame but considering his reputation, the old "why is he alive on Day 3" is ringing in the back of my mind.
Snark: Again, he has a lot of scenarios where he fits as scum. I could see myself PoEing him as scum at the very least.

Creature: I'm not one for info lynches, but I see a lot depends on his flip just based on his Day 2 wagon. I mean other people's flips help sort him too so I'm not going to advocate lynching him just to get his flip. As for what has changed in my read on him though, I'm open to the idea that he was scum. I started to see it a little on Day 2, but there are definitely scenarios where he fits now. If he is town though, we've been pretty awful so far.

What hasn't changed in my reads:

BBT

Aris - He's town. The replace out. He just is.
Shea - Kage confirmed him as town
Drmy - Maybe I'm tunneling, but it's hard to see him being town.

[SnarkySnowman]

I think I feel strongest on UT as scum. Rethinking my read on Aristo since I though BBT was likely scum but that's still null to scumlean for me.

[Kmd4390]

Shit, BBT has a lot of games. Well, I'll get around to that another time.

Vote drmy

[drmyshottyizsik]

Shit, BBT has a lot of games. Well, I'll get around to that another time.

Vote drmy

So from your wall post it seems like you have a stronger read on snarky and magna why the vote on me. especially since you even admitted you may be tunneling?

[Lowell]

I'll be mostly out this weekend. Try not to screw it up.

Skimming kmd's textwall is ugh. I hate these kind of posts, scum always know this type of thing is coming and can usually spin it however they want. The interaction between shotty and creature looks hilariously fake, and I could easily see it as a "oh shit this guy is screwed, if he's going to go down let's bus hard" situation. between what looks like bussing today and the convenient counterwagon yesterday, creature looks more scum than shotty. but i could do either, I guess.

VOTE: creature

[Kmd4390]

Shit, BBT has a lot of games. Well, I'll get around to that another time.

Vote drmy

So from your wall post it seems like you have a stronger read on snarky and magna why the vote on me. especially since you even admitted you may be tunneling?

Snark is scummy in the context of a VCA, but most of that is for voteparking Implosion which is meh at best. That's why I said in my conclusion section that I could POE him as scum at some point. Not exactly a strong read. Magna would be strong town if Creature is scum. Probably if you are scum too.

Lowell, can you give me an example of someone voting a specific way just to avoid looking bad in a VCA?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Shit, BBT has a lot of games. Well, I'll get around to that another time.

Vote drmy

So from your wall post it seems like you have a stronger read on snarky and magna why the vote on me. especially since you even admitted you may be tunneling?

Snark is scummy in the context of a VCA, but most of that is for voteparking Implosion which is meh at best. That's why I said in my conclusion section that I could POE him as scum at some point. Not exactly a strong read. Magna would be strong town if Creature is scum. Probably if you are scum too.

Lowell, can you give me an example of someone voting a specific way just to avoid looking bad in a VCA?

So join the creature wagon and when he is scum let us look at MoI

[Kmd4390]

I'd rather keep voting a scum read.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I'd rather keep voting a scum read.

That's fair.

[Something_Smart]

Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.

VC 3.2

drmyshottyizsik (3)- MagnaofIllusion, Creature, Kmd4390
Creature (2)- drmyshottyizsik, Lowell
SnarkySnowman (1)- Untrod Tripod

Not voting (3)- Aristophanes, SnarkySnowman, Thestatusquo

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2016-05-19 14:00:00)

Mod notes: MagnaofIllusion is V/LA until Monday.

[Untrod Tripod]

I think I feel strongest on UT as scum. Rethinking my read on Aristo since I though BBT was likely scum but that's still null to scumlean for me.

Your top scumread is the person who is most strongly pushing for your lynch. Color me unsurprised!

[Creature]

Kmd4390

If Magna and I were town, how would you see everyone else?

[Kmd4390]

Kmd4390

If Magna and I were town, how would you see everyone else?

I'd be left with drmy and Snark as likely scum then I'd have to reconsider my town reads on UT or Lowell. Probably Lowell unless UT and Snark appear to be cross bussing when I reread them.

[Lowell]

Shit, BBT has a lot of games. Well, I'll get around to that another time.

Vote drmy

So from your wall post it seems like you have a stronger read on snarky and magna why the vote on me. especially since you even admitted you may be tunneling?

Snark is scummy in the context of a VCA, but most of that is for voteparking Implosion which is meh at best. That's why I said in my conclusion section that I could POE him as scum at some point. Not exactly a strong read. Magna would be strong town if Creature is scum. Probably if you are scum too.

Lowell, can you give me an example of someone voting a specific way just to avoid looking bad in a VCA?

Not offhand, and I don't feel like looking it up. But pretty much every scumteam I've ever seen (or been on) makes it a point to at least minimally spread votes around.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Kmd4390

If Magna and I were town, how would you see everyone else?

I'd be left with drmy and Snark as likely scum then I'd have to reconsider my town reads on UT or Lowell. Probably Lowell unless UT and Snark appear to be cross bussing when I reread them.

Why all the WIFOM?

[SnarkySnowman]

What's the wifom there shotty?

[Kmd4390]

Was about to ask the same thing

[Something_Smart]

Phoneprodding TSQ and Ari (technically it's a bit too soon so it won't count as a prod if he responds in 2 hours).

[Creature]

Can we like do something? I feel pretty confident I narrowed scum correctly.

[SnarkySnowman]

VOTE: UT

[drmyshottyizsik]

What's the wifom there shotty?

He set himself up to win in both situation. He successfully was about to poison a well and leave room for him to flip flop with an excuse. He is looking way to into the future, and seems to be planning this out as if h knows more than he should.

[Kmd4390]

Why would I need an excuse for my reads to change as more information becomes availible?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Why would I need an excuse for my reads to change as more information becomes availible?

This is a question you should be answering not me. I'm not accusing you of anything, I'm just observing

[Kmd4390]

*shrug*

[Aristophanes]

Can we like do something? I feel pretty confident I narrowed scum correctly.

Sure.
Who do you want me to vote?