Creature (2)- MagnaofIllusion, BlueBloodedToffee
drmyshottyizsik (2)-
Untrod Tripod (1)- SnarkySnowman
xyzzy (1)- Creature
Lowell (1)- drmyshottyizsik
^Interesting. First serious wagon and 3/4 confirmed town. Look for scum to jump on later, especially if UT is town and especially considering that Kat said he was claiming power role later on.
drmyshottyizsik (2)-
Untrod Tripod (1)- SnarkySnowman
Lowell (1)- drmyshottyizsik
There really shouldn't be any way that UT/BBT/Magna are all town. Hell, BBT/Magna probably shouldn't both be town here. However, BBT is town for the replace out. I need to consider the possibility UT and/or Magna being scum.
Hammer came from confirmed town and not much else changed so no point looking at the final Day 1 vote count.
Lowell (3)-
Creature (2)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390
^Hard to take too much from that until we see some consilidation and/or scum flips. The simple answer is that there is scum in UT/Drmy and that Lowell is town, but there are just too many holes and variables to say that with any real certainty.
Creature (2)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion
Lowell (1)- Untrod Tripod
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390
BlueBloodedToffee (1)- drmyshottyizsik
SnarkySnowman (1)-
Again, this is hard because there's no dead scum and 2/3 confirmed town aren't voting in this one but the thing that stands out is that the Lowell wagon died. However, confirmed town jumped off. Drmy switched to BBT alone. And UT stayed. So it's not like anything huge came from it. The day became Implosion vs Creature and no one on the Lowell wagon did anything to change it to that, so *shrug*. Maybe you can argue that because Implosion flipped town, it makes Creature more likely scum, but that feels like a stretch just based on these two votes. I remember him getting more though so maybe that will have some merit before I'm done here.
Creature (4)- Lowell, MagnaofIllusion, drmyshottyizsik,
SnarkySnowman (2)-
drmyshottyizsik (1)- Kmd4390
So. Three scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Creature is town. In this case, scum don't have any reason to worry unless Snark is scum. Let's do Snark town first. Scum are probably spread out among the three wagons. So one of Lowell/Magna/drmy, BBT, and UT. I'm not really finding this scenario likely.
Scenario 2 - Same as the first, but with Snark as scum. In this one, UT is probably town and Snark's buddies are on the Creature wagon (Lowell, Magna, Drmy). Because Drmy was on the earlier Lowell wagon, either he was bussing or Magna is scum. In this scenario, scum is likely to shift to the Implosion mislynch later.
Scenario 3 - Creature is scum. Watch for scum to jump all over the Implosion wagon in this case. UT and Snark look bad in this scenario for the simple fact of being off the Creature wagon. (Sorry, I know confirmation bias is showing on BBT but he belongs in this group too technically.
Creature (3)- Lowell, drmyshottyizsik,
SnarkySnowman (2)-
Ok let's make sense of what happened here. I joined the Implosion wagon and was immediately joined by Magna (who was voting Creature) and Creature (who voted out of self preservation regardless of his own alignment). So, again, Creature's flip is critical to a legitimate analysis, but let's try the scenario game again:
Scenario 1 - Creature is town. Magna is likely scum who jumped ship. Snark was likely scum already on the wagon and Lowell or drmy stayed put on Creature.
Scenario 2 - Creature is scum. Snark still looks bad tbh. And someone is bussing somewhere. Creature town looks more likely I think.
Creature (3)- Lowell,
drmyshottyizsik (1)-
And we end up here. Either Magna and Lowell are BOTH scum who managed to stay off the wagon or this lynch is absolutely loaded with scum. It could be as simple as 2-3 of Snark/UT/drmy with 0-1 of Lowell/Magna or I could be wrong about Creature which explains scum's interest in the Implosion lynch (Creature/Snark/drmy?). I do remember UT hanging on to his Snark vote and only voting implosion to avoid no lynch and unlike drmy, he feels consistent in saying that. So Snark and drmy look like scum if Creature is town and one of Lowell/Magna would be a partner.
Conclusion
So basically here's what has changed in my reads:
Lowell: I wasn't entirely sure where to put him before, but I'm confident he's town now.
UT: Same as Lowell, but not quite as strong.
Magna: I see a lot of scenarios where he is scum. I was shelving him for reasons I don't feel like getting into, but I remember his Kat vote being pretty bad and he seemed to not really care who we lynched between Creature and Implosion. I can see Magna as scum, but not with Creature. Also, I know it's lame but considering his reputation, the old "why is he alive on Day 3" is ringing in the back of my mind.
Snark: Again, he has a lot of scenarios where he fits as scum. I could see myself PoEing him as scum at the very least.
Creature: I'm not one for info lynches, but I see a lot depends on his flip just based on his Day 2 wagon. I mean other people's flips help sort him too so I'm not going to advocate lynching him just to get his flip. As for what has changed in my read on him though, I'm open to the idea that he was scum. I started to see it a little on Day 2, but there are definitely scenarios where he fits now. If he is town though, we've been pretty awful so far.
What hasn't changed in my reads:
Shea - Kage confirmed him as town
Drmy - Maybe I'm tunneling, but it's hard to see him being town.