Mini 1785: Game Over!

[Heat]

I Am Innocent,

Town 2-shot Vigilante

, was killed Night 3

It is now Day 4. Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-23 12:00:00)

[Heat]

VC 4.00

Not Voting (6):

Mr Meeseeks, acryon, MURDERCAT, Maxous, Expedience, JarJarDrinks

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-23 12:00:00)

[Mr Meeseeks]

look anyone who knows my main knows im not really wanting to be in this site anymore

but dammit, im not replacing out of this game

and if i can make my last game onsite for a while the one where i break rcs perfect scum win record then ill be damn proud

so lets get this shit done

[Maxous]

Spoiler: Autti

FFS cant even post porperly, so tired.

Anyway. Did a re-read;

First up Fire Assassin, lurking, 167 i thought was strange at the time and could actually be a scumslip? Doubtful but its worth noting with his lurkiness, 367 no attempt at helping the wagons just joining them. I know i haven't made a huge effort so far so i can't really throw stones, but this is a scumlean slot for me.

Murdercat 345 i actually don't like, for this reason

I wasn't thinking anything about scum chat

scum has day chat when that should be obvious to everyone

, so you weren't thinking about it and yet its obvious to you at the same time? That doesn't make sense. 331 is null to me, he is just highlighting setup information, he isn't exactly tunneling setup discussion, thus to me its not indicative of anything, but your really trying to jump on it.

Garmr sees alright so far. Hes making a good effort.

Now we get to some interesting interactions and events.

Lapsa self votes in 374 bold strategy i'd say. For early Day1 this is scummy, not making an effort to hunt scum and residing to a IDGAF im town is weak.

More interestingly JarJar white knights him straight after in 375 (i'm calling this white knighting is because of the future posts).
Calls the case garbage, really doesn't elaborate on it much, then attacks 3! (acryon, RC, garmr) people for being on the Lapsa wagon. This is hard out white knighting.

Arcyon hits some good points on 380 and 434, provides an actual case for JarJar to disagree with.

Meeks is correct in 379

JarJar then attempts to start the counter wagon again in 399, sees that it wasn't going attention for a couple pages and then goes for it in 439

Strangely Kush has 420 where he "townreads lapsa i think" glad this was jumped on.

The whole Lapsa Kush JarJar interactions are incredibly strange. 1 of them has to be scum, if not more.

Jake has lurked from 370 so i'd like to see more from him.

RC is RC, i can never read him and i generally don't bother until day 2/3 when he gets active.

Lastly, Calvary appears hard town when he rocks up, but strangely Innocent straight up mis-reps him on 472, he never even hinted that it would be bad to lynch the "weak-link" scum, he is saying it because there could be scum on the wagon already.

Also hi to Meeks for 447

@JarJar could you please tell me your scum reads, and who on the lapsa wagon you think is scum.

Sorry for the wall of text post, i've got some more time to post daily now, i hate wall of text but was just collecting notes during lunchbreak lol.

Oh forgot the most important part:

VOTE: JarJar

Unfortunately, most of Autti's pushes were on town players.
The two quotes are the only ones I think are relevant.

I am the Fire Assasin slot, so you can make up your own mind but scum generally wouldn't call out their buddy for a "scumslip", because they know it would be real.

Autti has a light swipe at Muredercat but Autti never follows up on it so hard to give MC town points for that.

The person Autti pushes hardest is JarJar accusing him of white-knighting and being Lapsa-town's scumbuddy.
I would give JJD some town points from Autti, it doesn't seem like scum-scum here.

Autti brushes off Meeseeks and Arcyon much like he brushes off Radiant Cowbells.
doesn't even mention Jake from State Farm.

hard to read too much into Autti expect JJD looks a bit more town based on it.

Gimme a few and I'll do Postie next

[JarJarDrinks]

and if i can make my last game onsite for a while the one where i break rcs perfect scum win record then ill be damn proud

Huh? If RC had a perfect scum win record, I've already ended it.

[JarJarDrinks]

Gonna reread stuffs but right now I think I'm leaning towards acryon. Maybe MC or Max.


Meeks and Expe are townreads.

[JarJarDrinks]

because right now your choice is between LITERALLY CONFSCUM TO YOU postie and THAT GUY WHAT RC THINKS IS SCUM mr meeseeks

and you chose the latter

The idea of letting both claimed-GS's live isn't horrible

, but it better be for the sake of lynching someone more likely to flip scum than Meseeks.

They know that a postie lynch today means the next 2 lynches are Ircher>RC.

Lynching Meeeks (who I'm sure is town) adds an extra day to that timeline.

I agree with this.

completely inconsistent.

What is inconsistent? Lynching Meeks seems like it would almost definitely just add another day to a timeline which already guarantees us scum in two shots.

So looking over things again, I see two major ideas we need to compare to determine which is more likely along with the context of each player. For one, I already thought Ircher was town and was unsure on Postie. Then we measure the likelihood of Ircher's agreement to not lynch postie being done as town versus the likelihood that there is a mafia RB and they happened to block Postie.

While what Ircher did does look pretty scummy

, 1) he ultimately wasn't the one to propose it and 2) I

can

see it coming from town.

Vote is staying where it is.

The 2 bolded quotes seem to contradict each other.

And I really have a hard time believing his reasoning for thinking postie was the guilty one. His reasoning is basically because he doesn't think it's likely that scum has a RBer.

VOTE: acryon

[acryon]

This is going to be very hard for town to lose. We can still miss one lynch and have one no-lynch before LyLo, and best to use the no-lynch second since using it today would leave the game the same minus one confirmed town.

I honestly don't have any great reads at this point, but my feelings go like this:

Town

Expedience
Meseeks
MURDERCAT
Maxous
JarJarDrinks

Scum

Top two I am very confident on. MC I am fairly confident on. Maxous and JJD I am not very confident on.

P.edit: Regarding those quotes, 1) I don't think they are actually contradictory and 2) they are 200 posts apart, so if you don't expect my feelings and reads to adjust as time goes on, I don't know what to tell you.

VOTE: JarJarDrinks

As I said, not very confident in this, but seems fine for now.

[JarJarDrinks]

Then we measure the likelihood of Ircher's agreement to not lynch postie being done as town versus the likelihood that there is a mafia RB and they happened to block Postie.

And what does he mean by "they happened to block Postie"? As if blocking the claimed gunsmith would be a coincidence or something. I feel like this is acryon trying justify a scumread that he should not have had.

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

[Mr Meeseeks]

and if i can make my last game onsite for a while the one where i break rcs perfect scum win record then ill be damn proud

Huh? If RC had a perfect scum win record, I've already ended it.

okay maybe its changed since but ive often see rc talk about a perfect scum win record or something

either way, i want my last game onsite to be one where i win against scum!rc because thats an achievement and a half

[Mr Meeseeks]

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

watch what youre saying

[Mr Meeseeks]

when i can be bothered im gonna look at the end of d1 because that is going to be a fucking

goldmine

for postie relational tells hopefully

[JarJarDrinks]

they are 200 posts apart, so if you don't expect my feelings and reads to adjust as time goes on, I don't know what to tell you.

Reads change sure. That wasn't a read. It's game theory.

- You're saying that lynching OUTSIDE of 2 claimed gunsmiths in favor of someone else is an ok play
- You then say Ircher looks scummy for suggesting it
- But you still vote postie (and don't give a very good reason for doing so)

[JarJarDrinks]

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

watch what youre saying

Sorry but how in the world can anyone think that scum claiming gunsmith in a game w/ an actual gunsmith can happen?

[acryon]

Then we measure the likelihood of Ircher's agreement to not lynch postie being done as town versus the likelihood that there is a mafia RB and they happened to block Postie.

And what does he mean by "they happened to block Postie"? As if blocking the claimed gunsmith would be a coincidence or something. I feel like this is acryon trying justify a scumread that he should not have had.

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

What? How was there no good reason? I already had suspicions of scum!Postie, whereas I felt the Calvary slot was town based on things earlier in the game. As I mentioned, Ircher also wasn't the one to propose it; he just agreed with someone else's idea, which made it look a lot less scummy for me. Plus there is the general circumstances. scum!Postie had a lot more scum motivation to claim when she did then theoretical scum!Ircher did.

[MURDERCAT]

V/LA until tomorrow

[Mr Meeseeks]

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

watch what youre saying

Sorry but how in the world can anyone think that scum claiming gunsmith in a game w/ an actual gunsmith can happen?

1 sheer dumb luck
2 one of the scums roles strongly hints at it

also keep in mind at the end of d1 at least there was no counterclaim

also ive always been a strong purveyor of "reads over roles unless it is something concrete" - ie, dont count someone clear on something like that

[acryon]

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

watch what youre saying

Sorry but how in the world can anyone think that scum claiming gunsmith in a game w/ an actual gunsmith can happen?

As has already been discussed, if the scum-team has a doctor, then it would seem fairly likely that there is an actual gunsmith.

they are 200 posts apart, so if you don't expect my feelings and reads to adjust as time goes on, I don't know what to tell you.

Reads change sure. That wasn't a read. It's game theory.

- You're saying that lynching OUTSIDE of 2 claimed gunsmiths in favor of someone else is an ok play
- You then say Ircher looks scummy for suggesting it
- But you still vote postie (and don't give a very good reason for doing so)

Ircher looked scummy for suggesting it since it

would

theoretically add an extra day to the timeline in favor of scum, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a horrendous townplay. It

is

possible that a play can have benefits for both town and scum.

[Mr Meeseeks]

they are 200 posts apart, so if you don't expect my feelings and reads to adjust as time goes on, I don't know what to tell you.

Reads change sure. That wasn't a read. It's game theory.

- You're saying that lynching OUTSIDE of 2 claimed gunsmiths in favor of someone else is an ok play
- You then say Ircher looks scummy for suggesting it

disagree with the contradiction

1 - didnt suggest it. he said it was "not horrible". that to me says hes going "im thinking about it and it could go okay if we do it right"
2 - as he said, 200 posts difference. people change there minds.

theres also the factor that ircher was pushing

me

who was high on acryons townread list, plus since ircher claimed to be gunsmith he **knew** that postie was scum from his pov, and theres a difference between ircher suggesting it in that situation and acryon (who didnt **know** which was scum and thus it could seem like a valid idea) suggesting it

[Maxous]

So far I have a pretty strong townread on Mr Meeseeks. His general frustration in posts like 279 comes across as super genuine to me.

Someone talk to me about MURDERCAT. I have no idea what to think of him.

her first read..doesn't seem fake. Looks decent for meeseeks.

Okay Jake's slot is basically conftown from that replace out.

this is interesting.
Would Postie have the guts to call a buddy 'basically conftown'? I'm leaning no and I would give Expedience town-points here.

Spoiler:

id probably be looking closest at... expedience i think, maybe garmr

If you think scum!Expedience makes sense after this...

I don't know why I didn't do this as soon as I found out fire assassin was fire bringer but I can't play with a known game thrower.

request replacement.

Fire is on my blacklist

... you're insane.

id probably be looking closest at... expedience i think, maybe garmr

If you think scum!Expedience makes sense after this...

I don't know why I didn't do this as soon as I found out fire assassin was fire bringer but I can't play with a known game thrower.

request replacement.

Fire is on my blacklist

... you're insane.

Postie, I don't see why you'd see replacing as alignment indicative.

[snip]

Not sure I'm following. Are you using "hard defending" to mean defending

well

here? Because I get that JJD's logic wasn't great in places. I'm not townreading JJD for the contents of his defence; I'm townreading him just for putting so much effort into defending lynchbait.

Postie, I don't see why you'd see replacing as alignment indicative.

Not sure how you're not seeing it?
He said he didn't want to play with Fire because something something game throwing. If he were Mafia, that's not something that he would have needed to be worried about.

he clearly has an issue with the slot that tends towards the emotional
I think we both know that such issues transcend alignment?

I mean I replaced from a game with Titus while claiming it was because I hated her when in reality it was beacuse I didn't want to see her getting beat upo n fo her play in our preiovus game.

like fuck it you should know better than this seethatt.

Yeah but you're you and not Jake from State Farm. I see no reason not to take his claim at face value.

k w/e

who do you think is scum

again, very interesting posts regarding Jake/Expedience.
Postie looks to be buddying here instead of defending a scum-partner.
While Radiant Cowbells is trying to argue to keep the lynch-options open instead of shutting it down.
Even afterwards she defends, defends and defends Jake, which again looks like buddying.
To me, this looks pretty good for Expedience

Spoiler: Read Lists

How about Calvary?

Done with ISOs, so you can have my full reads now. My first impressions are:

Expedience

Fire Assassin

Mr Meeseeks

I Am Innocent

nnn_thekushmountains

JarJarDrinks

Lapsa

Calvary

Garmr

acryon

MURDERCAT

fuck it.

what are your reads Postie?

Not for lynching ever: Expedience / Fire / Mr Meeseeks / I Am Innocent / nnn_thekushmountains
Idk anymore: JarJarDrinks / Lapsa / Garmr
Probably scum: MURDERCAT / Calvary / acryon

twice, she calls Murdercat and Acryon scum but never follows up on either of them. She sure followed up on Calvary though.
wouldn't be shocked if one of them was a buddy. that looks like distancing without pushing the lynch (which she kinda did with Radiant Cowbells)

-

That's what I've picked out from her Day 1 play.
I didn't quote all her interactions with Meeseeks but he comes out decent from Postie interactions.
Expedience/Jake is likely town based on her ISO.

next up is her wagon I guess

[JarJarDrinks]

What? How was there no good reason? I already had suspicions of scum!Postie, whereas I felt the Calvary slot was town based on things earlier in the game.

Yeah I had my suspicions too. In fact I still wanted to lynch postie on day one and YOU were one of the people arguing against it.

But all that changes once Ircher claims. Especially after he wanted to delay the lynch. I don't get how u can think postie is scum anymore @ that point. Just too much of a coincidence IMO.

[JarJarDrinks]

Good analysis's from Max. I agree w/ pretty much all of it. I think if I'm wrong about acryon, then it's MC.

[acryon]

What? How was there no good reason? I already had suspicions of scum!Postie, whereas I felt the Calvary slot was town based on things earlier in the game.

Yeah I had my suspicions too. In fact I still wanted to lynch postie on day one and YOU were one of the people arguing against it.

But all that changes once Ircher claims. Especially after he wanted to delay the lynch. I don't get how u can think postie is scum anymore @ that point. Just too much of a coincidence IMO.

Of course, because we don't lynch an un-CC'd PR the day they claim. I'm never going to do that. And if the issue standing in my way of lynching Postie was that she was an un-CC'd PR, why would you not expect my view on her as scum to revert when we had a CC?

Good analysis's from Max.

I agree with this.

[Maxous]

starting from #1264

OK just ISO'd Postie and she's kinda scummier than I thought. I might compromise on her.

not much reasoning and "compromise on her"
bit weak.

Spoiler:

We've got 3 hours to deadline.

Is someone gonna be around to hammer around then because if not we should just lynch her now.

Didn't we get an extension?

Also

L-1

I think.

RC asks for the hammer and JJD brings makes sure to bring attention to the fact that there is more time and that she's L-1.
Could be subtly trying to help her here by making sure nobody hammers.

im fine with hammering postie, shes bugged me in the short time shes here so im not gonna be upset by her loss (sorry post youre nice but seriously)

on a gut level this doesn't quite feel like a post about hammering a scum-partner.

Spoiler:

Claim sounds fake. I'll let her catchup and posts stuffs but I say we hang her regardless.

why

Why do I think it sounds fake? First off, mafia is more likely to claim PR IMO. I find it convenient that she's not just a VT.

Also I don't like how she was all "dissect the wagon" as if to imply that her claiming means we auto-move our votes.

Claim sounds fake. I'll let her catchup and posts stuffs but I say we hang her regardless.

interesting that JJD immediately cuts the legs off the Postie claim.
Not even Radiant Cowbells did that, who was throwing Postie under the hard-bus.
I would lean this is town not because he called out the fake claim but because he called it out before anybody had a real chance to react.
I feel that as a Postie partner, you would at least want to wait and see how the town deals with the claim.
for example look at RC's #1310 and #1312 below.
the exchange with RC makes JJD look fairly good here, yeah

Claim sounds fake. I'll let her catchup and posts stuffs but I say we hang her regardless.

You are terrible go home.

A bit spiteful from postie here which is interesting.
doesn't seem like a reaction to her buddy, seems more likely she is mad about her fake-claim being exposed.
not a strong point though

I really hate how people have wagoned me without even really giving reasons.

are you trying to say i have no reasons to scumread you

because thats a hilarious thing to say

Not really, I just don't understand them at all.

vote is staying

sorry rc, i understand your logic, but this is nasty

this is the second time i feel postie has acted like something didnt exist and then when questioned backpedaled a little and gone "i, uh, actually meant i didnt agree" and i cant let it slip

fairly good point which expressing which is expressing a scum-read but not in a way that looks like milking town-ced for it ( compare this with how RC was pushing her )

Spoiler:

vote is staying

sorry rc, i understand your logic, but this is nasty

this is the second time i feel postie has acted like something didnt exist and then when questioned backpedaled a little and gone "i, uh, actually meant i didnt agree" and i cant let it slip

We are not lynching a claimed PR D1. If she is scum, we can figure that out as time goes on. If she is town, she's most likely dead tonight.

Still no way we lynch a claimed PR.

look

i can tell you exactly what is going to happen

we dont lynch postie today and instead rush, unthinkingly wagoning someone else
postie probably fails to get any significant result and isnt killed
we lynch postie tomorrow

and that is entirely regardless of alignment

Even if this is a 90% chance, it's not worth the 10% chance that leaves us horrifically lynching a claimed PR on D1.

Postie hasn't actually been CCed then has she?
But fuck she's so scummy.

If she was town here she'd be jumping my ass and nailing me to the cross. The way she's rolling over in response to pressure just feels so bad.
Like I've seen her sort of fold inward in response to pressure but this doesn't feel like that and I feel like she's deliberately trying to emulate that right now?

Ok but then lynch her tomorrow if you feel that scummy on her. Because if she is town and she gets lynched today, then there is zero chance of any information from the PR. If she survives until tomorrow, she can at least provide a result that will mean something when she does flip.

hmmm
theoretically correct but you can hide behind it regarding a buddy.
but i understand why someone as town would take this stance. In fact, it's the stance I probably would of taken.

[Maxous]

split my original post up because it was too long and I wanted to give Murdercat his own post

I'm potentially willing to compromise on Postie.

baaah.
Another weak reaction about compromising.

Why do I think it sounds fake? First off, mafia is more likely to claim PR IMO. I find it convenient that she's not just a VT.

This is silly reasoning that will have us end up with all our PRs lynched.

I'll agree that I'm still suspicious but we can't lynch Postie today.

well...this certainly comes across as a scum-buddy.

Spoiler:

I've been asleep.

postie

what on earth have you been doing sleeping between 3 pm and 8 pm in the afternoon/evening

And like, how much time does she need to catch up on the 3 pages she missed?

Now give me some time to catch up properly please and dissect the wagon on me please.

I feel like the other scummies were all like "Dude claim". And she just showed up to drop a claim and then peaced out.

JJD I wonder if you want to lynch so bad because you know you could be next.

chainsaw attack??
Murdercat, you ain't lookin good pal.

Yeah Postie isn't dying tonight lol.

Still no way we lynch a claimed PR.

yeah this continues to look really bad.

I agree that we probably don't have cop and gunsmith. And if we do have both then at least if we kill one we have the other!

VOTE: Postie

I don't see a crumb from Autti also.

this is after garmr claimed cop.
and he finally votes Postie...maybe he thought she was a sinking ship because a real investigative claimed.
for the record: Murdercat was also scum-reading both garmr and postie at this point but instantly believed garmr's claim.

-

this is until the end of day 1.
I'll re-read Day 2 tomorrow but Murdercat easily came off the worst around the Postie Day 1 wagon.