Mini 1782 Game Over

[Lowell]

I believe Roshar's claim because it doesn't make sense for her to come out like that as scum, and if she was faking it to get the lynch on me she would have claimed cop or something similar. It also explains why I got no result last night.

Claim: Watcher

Night 1, I watched Johnny and was told he wasn't visited by anyone.
Night 2, I watched FAQ and was told I had no result.

This defies all reason. VOTE: huntress

[Titus]

Lowell, why did you hammer?

[Lowell]

Did I?

Well, there was no kill, so her claim is BS. Or rosh's is. Either way, one of them is lying.

[Lowell]

And I believe the "even/odd night" aspect of rosh's more than the huntress "here's a convenient claim that doesn't dispute rosh but exonerates me" claim.

Meh, no guts no glory. Let's have some fun and kill some chumps.

[Lowell]

Also in case I'm NKed (LOLOLOLOLOL), if huntress flips scum titus is her partner. Wanted more time to rolefish, is my guess.

[mhsmith0]

Also in case I'm NKed (LOLOLOLOLOL), if huntress flips scum titus is her partner. Wanted more time to rolefish, is my guess.

I guess I could see Titus as Huntress partner (I could also plausibly see Lowell and Titus as being the two partners FWIW). It would actually be pretty funny though if the day 1 Clumsy wagon had only one mafia on it, and that one being early.

[Lowell]

So you agree the huntress claim is garbage, then, right?

[mhsmith0]

So you agree the huntress claim is garbage, then, right?

I would be kinda surprised if it was true. Town Tracker AND town Watcher seems like an odd combo in a mini game (though I'll admit to not being anything close to expert at this stuff), and it still doesn't explain the lack of NK on N2 (or why FAQ2 would be the N2 target of a watch). I mean, I suppose she could be a mafia watcher though, I guess that might make sense. But yeah, I'm struggling to see the town watcher claim as legit.

[mhsmith0]

Updated for day 3:

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress
Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny, Rosh
Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2
Huntress (1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

Day 3 (I think)
Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (1) - Froot
Huntress (6) - Rosh, Titus, Johnny, mhsmith0, Garmr, Lowell
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Plain (1) - Garmr
Lowell (1) - Mhsmith
Rosh (1) - Huntress

[mhsmith0]

Presuming Huntress flips mafia and Roshar's claim is both true and town (neither is certain but it does seem likely at this stage)...

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy,

Huntress

Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny,

Rosh

Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2

Huntress

(1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny,

Huntress

, Froot,

Rosh

, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2

Rosh

(1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

Day 3 (edited from above - removed me and Garmr from prior votes)
Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (1) - Froot

Huntress

(6) -

Rosh

, Titus, Johnny, mhsmith0, Garmr, Lowell
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain

Rosh

(1) - Huntress

Probably Titus's move onto Huntress after Roshar's push deserves the most scrutiny, given the claimed NK block and the plausible outcome that Huntress had been caught by a PR. Will mull that over more tonight, but that's my initial thought about where focus should be. Also suspect Lowell for a few reasons; not sure the hammer is meaningfully positive or negative, so I don't know that I'll dwell on that particular issue too much while re-reading tonight.

[a plain farmer]

If Huntress flips scum, Garmr will likely become my top scumread. Titus would improve a little bit (look at the D1 Max wagon: Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress. I'm not sure there'd be two scum there). I'll have to look more closely at the purported Huntress/Lowell connections.

[mhsmith0]

If Huntress flips scum, Garmr will likely become my top scumread. Titus would improve a little bit (look at the D1 Max wagon: Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress. I'm not sure there'd be two scum there). I'll have to look more closely at the purported Huntress/Lowell connections.

Can you walk through Garmr being Huntress partner? That's not one that had particularly jumped out at me; what ties the two of them together?

[mhsmith0]

I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if the Clumsy wagon was basically all town; he looked really bad (IMO), and the mafia could basically let town screw it up all on its own, while setting up Max for the D2 lynch. I mean, I definitely don't know that it's right to think that way, but if town is pushing on a mislynch for a player who genuinely looks suspicious, that sort of thing gives the mafia all sorts of options on what to do with their vote.

Reminds me a bit of my mislynch of Ircher on D2 from our newbie game together. There were legit reasons for the lynch, but the lynch was all town (literally all four other townies were on him IIRC). Again, it's not certain, but I wouldn't be shocked if the mafia mainly stayed away from that one. Why bother pushing it when the town will do it instead?

[a plain farmer]

It's not so much that they're tied together (although scum will often deliberately ignore their buddies, so in a sense that does tie them together). Rather, in looking at the vote counts, I can separate the remaining players into lists in which there is likely exactly one scum:

Max's D1 wagon: {Froot, Titus, Huntress} (probably one 1 scum here)
Those who were off Max's D2 wagon: {FA_Q2, Lowell, mhsmith} (Higher chance of >1 scum, but still probably only 1. I'm not including myself, but you guys can put me in this one.)
Those not in either of the above groups: {Johnny, Rosh, Garmr}

If Rosh isn't faking it, then it seems like either Johnny or Garmr is scum, and Garmr seems scummier than Johnny atm.

[a plain farmer]

Yes, I don't think mafia really needed to do anything on the Clumsy lynch. But statistically there's still probably at least 1 on that wagon.

[mhsmith0]

That's very plausibly true. But I wonder if the wolves were more actively pushing on the Max wagon. I could see two of them on the D1 Max wagon, basically thinking that Clumsy would get the axe regardless and then it's a lot easier to push the D2 mislynch. I need to re-read to be sure, but my gut says that two wolves on Max D1 is very possible. I just feel like the Clumsy wagon gave them a lot of options on what to do with their votes, and they probably took a bit of advantage to avoid falling into the easy distancing paradigm.

It's just a theory I'm playing with at this point, but that's my current gut.

ninjad: yes, statistically there's very probably at least one there. But I think that there was likely ONLY one there. If they didn't have to really work to lynch him, then they could use their votes to avoid scrutiny (off Clumsy AND Max) and/or set up the D2 Max mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, I'm feeling increasingly confident that Huntress was mafia given that she's not here in twilight. One down, two to go!

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 3 VC #7 - LYNCH

Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (1) - Froot

Huntress (6) (LYNCH) - Rosh, Titus, Johnny, Mhsmith, Garmr, Lowell
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Garmr (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (1) - Huntress
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (0) -

Deadline

Day 3 will end on May 13 8:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-13 20:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Huntress was lynched.
Nudging FA_Q2 (2d 19h); FA_Q2 must respond within 12 hours, or I'll send a prod.

[Ircher]

Huntress,

Mafia Odd-Night Ninja

, was lynched Day 3.

It is now Night 3.

All night actions should be submitted to BOTH me AND Dierfire. I will not accept any actions that aren't submitted to both of us. If you change your mind, simply submit a new pm with the new action you wish to take,

FA_Q2 will have 12h to respond to the nudge. Then, he will have 24h to respond to the prod before I'll start searching for a replacement.

Received 4:10 PM EST May 10.

Night 2 ends in (expired on 2016-05-11 17:30:00)

[Ircher]

Night 3 extended 48 hours. New deadline is (expired on 2016-05-13 17:30:00).

Reason: Searching for replacement for Garmr.

[Ircher]

Heuristically_Alone replaces Garmr! Thanks!

Deadline still the same unless everyone wishes to end early. If you already expressed such a desire, you do not need to reconfirm.

Mod will be gone most of Thursday.

[Ircher]

Mhsmith0,

Town Odd-Night Jailkeeper

, was killed N3.

Day 4 Begins!

Vote Count - Day 4 VC #1

Titus (0) -
Froot (0) -
Johnny (0) -
FA_Q2 (0) -
Heur (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (8) - Heur, Froot, Titus, Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Johnny, Rosh

Deadline

Day 4 will end on May 23 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-23 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Mod Notes

None right now.

[Titus]

V/LA until Wednesday

Would be voting Lowell but IRL being afk makes that not smart.

[Lowell]

Let's tangle, scum.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Throw me your Titus case Lowell