Mini 1782 Game Over

[Dierfire]

Vote Count - Day 4 VC #5

Titus (2) - Froot, Rosh
Froot (0) -
Johnny (2) - Heur, Lowell
FA_Q2 (0) -
Heur (1) - Plain
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Titus
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (2) - Johnny, FA_Q2

Deadline

Day 4 will end on May 26 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-26 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Titus V/LA until Friday.

[Froot Loop]

@heuristically_alone

- can you clarify my question in 1715 please?

My point exactly. They wouldn't know until Rishar claimed. Voting Huntress disincentives claiming and makes Roshar obvtown. So bussing is the last thing scum would do until the claim happened.

I just tried to play a little game of 'Who's the PR?' at the beginning of D3. Here's my notes:
Garmr votes APF (1515)
Smith and I talk, nothing about Huntress (1518/1519, 1522)
Roshar posts case against Huntress (1523)
Titus asks Johnny about Huntress (1530,) Johnny is non-committal (1532)
APF mentions Huntress when discussing players who didn’t vote D1, concludes that FAQ is scummiest (1549)
Lowell town reads Huntress (1555)
FA_Q2 town reads Huntress (1567)
mhsmith shows an interest in Lowell and FA_Q2’s posts, nothing about Huntress (1570)
Garmr says Huntress is hard to read (1573)
I say I don't have a read of Huntress in 1584.

So, I think scum would have known almost 100% that Roshar was the PR by post 1573 but definitely by 1584.

I think 1. It has to deal with basically how scum should approach the game. Namely, determining if Roshar was stubborn town or if he had a PR result. The last person to suspect Huntress was lynched the day prior. Determining if Roshar had a PR and thus was likely unlynchable versus a lynchable VT is a very high priority.

You haven't answered my point about whether the claim was important to scum. My point is that scum would've known that Huntress was interfered with and would've been looking out for any signs of players coming after her (see above.)

But, let's say they didn't know for sure and they really wanted 100% confirmation through a claim - do you think Lowell's play is the best scum-tactic for drawing out the claim?

He accuses Roshar of fabricating a case discrediting Roshar but after the claim Lowell's concerns evaporated and hammer happens.

Roshar's case

was

fabricated, so Lowell's interpretation was correct. I don't know how he felt after Roshar's claim, I'll let him offer some insight about that.

Given Max was right on his reads and the current push on me for being too smart because I looked at vote patterns, it's highly likely I am right.

Can you clarify your point about Max? And can you quote your progression and comments on the VA throughout the game?

[Titus]

@Froot,

You just gathered a collection of posts and said scum had to know. That's besides the point anyway. My point is scum wanted to draw a claim to see Roshar's role. There's no way scum deduced his role in there and you trying to fit that read is absurd.

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

Town cases are not fabricated. Roshar just had evidence his case was right.

Max was lynched day 2. Look at who he voted and tunnelled...Huntress. Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

[Titus]

Va quotes in a moment.

[Titus]

Maxous, you're at L-1 with about 2 days until deadline. If you're town here, you need to claim.

This game has gotten awfully quiet. Maxous's alignment will tell a lot about the gamestate right here.

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.

I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

Kinda. I see the point on Lowell.

@Johnny, Talk to me about Huntress. I hate the reasons she's pushing out but Huntress was someone I considered pushing today. For instance, the wagoning for telling us we're stupid is bad since we have groupthink issues. Yet, Huntress slot did little D1.

[Lowell]

I owe this game some attention. I'll get to it.

In the meantime, there was a question (from titus, maybe?) about my behavior towards huntress. Look, there's no way to spin this other than I hammered her shitty-ass claim before it could do damage and cause anyone else to counter. You can call that bussing or WIFOM all you want, but there's no way you come out of that interaction with me, in any plausible sense, being scum. someone made this point already, but I'll make it for myself. I'd happily vote for Titus if this johnny wagon isn't going to take off. But now that I'm on it, i have to say I'm intrigued to see it move.

[Froot Loop]

I hope people aren't glazing over these walls! Sorry! I feel like I have a lot to say :/

@Froot,

You just gathered a collection of posts and said scum had to know. That's besides the point anyway. My point is scum wanted to draw a claim to see Roshar's role.

There's no way scum deduced his role in there and you trying to fit that read is absurd.

(my bold)

Is it? If it is and others confirm, then maybe I'm reaching but Roshar's already said that she thinks it's possible as well. I think it's likely that scum would've thought Roshar is a roleblocker. To have a player come out strongly against a scum player whose kill didn't go through is a pretty strong indication for me. That, alongside no one else in the game showing any interest. It's true that if there's a BP or protection ability, the town player wouldn't know the source of the prevented kill, but I think Roshar's play was an indication.

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

Ok, so Lowell did attack Roshar. Does that mean he's not scum?

I'm wondering if attacking Roshar and townreading Huntress is likely scum play. That's different to just not voting for Huntress.

Town cases are not fabricated. Roshar just had evidence his case was right.

The case was weak and didn't match Roshar's convictions before she claimed.

Max was lynched day 2. Look at who he voted and tunnelled...Huntress. Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

So, do you now think that scum were pushing the lynch on Max? I thought you thought scum were letting mislynches go through.

Do you think this push on you is because you correctly identified Huntress' play? In that case, do you think Johnny is scum, as he's the other player you identified? Can you explain that thought process?

[heuristically_alone]

Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

Why haven't they try to lynch you then?

[heuristically_alone]

@Froot her is a post I liked from Roshar. It just feels like a deeper analysis based on real time facts in the game instead of just the psychological bogus most people try to use to scumhunt. I like posts like this and it's very pro town for me.

With regards to the first part, I'll explain a little later.

Huntress replaces in mid-day 1 and has a lot of catching up to do. When she does, she doesn't engage with any of her scum reads. Keeps promising she'll do better. Keeps promising she'll re-read her slots and clarify. Keeps promising she'll provide reasons. But then she disappears. She comes in every 2 days or so. Let's break it down.

-She replaces in on the 9th of April.
-Catches up by the 13th. Throws three empty scum reads
-Rechecks some stuff' on the 16th where she explains only one scum read (in one sentence) and her second scum read, Froot, she couldn't remember why (she still can't remember why until today). It's like she picks the two players she knows aren't going to get lynched. Her scum read on Clumsy is retracted. When he's at L-5.
-Pops back on the 18th, because I started questioning her.

A serious case of active lurking.

In all of her 9 content posts in D1, she mentioned Clumsy and Max scummy at some points. She withdrew her Clumsy scum read when he was at L-5 because of his wagon. She shows preference in lynching Maxous as she didn't find his posts town like his predecessor (when choosing between lynches). Yet she doesn't vote him, with less than 24 hrs left in the day. Until I start cornering her about it. In which case she reluctantly votes, reminding us time and time again that she really doesn't want to do this. She's so adverse to lynching Max, that she's willing to have a flash lynch on....Lowell. With less than 24 hrs left. When more than half the players at that time were either replacing out (shaddow and mav) or inactive. That would have been impossible. And she knew that. She knew there was no way in hell that the lynch could be diverted. She was just trying to look like she didn't want the Max lynch.


All of this active lurking and now, she's promising to stay for the entirety of the last day (D1). If she wanted to actually make a difference in the lynch pattern, she would have attempted to pursue her scum reads in the 10 days that she had in the game. Not post once every 2-3 days. And now she's trying to pretend like she gonna try her best to help with like 20 hrs left in the day.

[FA_Q2]

I can see titus case against lowell but I still get strong scum vibes from titus. This is simply not titus's town game from my experience with her.

VOTE: titus

L-2

[JohnnyFarrar]

What's different?

[FA_Q2]

What's different?

Every time I have played with town titus she has not only been very aggressive but rather crass about it all around.

Here she just seems more mellowed out and more 'appeasy' in general tone. Last time I seen this it was from scum titus.

[a plain farmer]

There's one thing that's keeping me from from being super confident in heur being scum right now, and it's from back when Garmr answered my question about FAQ. Huntress also answered about FAQ. Here are the responses:

FAQ:

I like his play so far. He's made some good points..

Faq
null but I do agree with him on some point.

My feeling is that if Garmr were scum, he'd be hyper-aware of what his scumbuddy was saying, and wouldn't phrase his own answer so similarly. Is this something scum actually does, or am I just getting too caught up in a minor detail?

[JohnnyFarrar]

I mean I'm not hyper aware of my partner as scum, which is all I can say confidently

[JohnnyFarrar]

So this is boring me. I'm not a stranger to finding Titus intimidating a town but I can't ignore that most of the wagon on her (fack excluded) is the same corps of people pushing me.

@heur you not even gobs insult my pathetic response to your case on me?

@Lowell What exactly is your case against me? I'd call it OMGUS in jest but I'm not even scumreading you so you just salty that you haven't made an impact?

Froot is actually making me nervous, let the record show.

[JohnnyFarrar]

So this is boring me. I'm not a stranger to finding Titus intimidating

as

town but I can't ignore that most of the wagon on her (fack excluded) is (

are

?) the same corps of people pushing me.

@heur you not even

gonna

insult my pathetic response to your case on me?

@Lowell What exactly is your case against me? I'd call it OMGUS in jest but I'm not even scumreading you so you just salty that you haven't made an impact?

Froot is actually making me nervous, let the record show.

Did a grammar I think

[Froot Loop]

@Johnny

- I can feel myself leaning towards tunnelly on Titus so I'll try and control that. What do you think about her response today? It's made me think she's more scummy than before - she's been posting pretty random things which don't make sense (her point about scum not attacking Roshar while voting for Lowell; the previous lynch on Max and whether that was driven by scum.) I don't believe her explanation that Roshar's post without quotes made her case easier to understand. I think that was all fake.

If you're including me in the group of people pushing you: I thought about two scummy ways of playing in D2 (letting the Max lynch go through) and D3 (not questioning Roshar's case and voting early for Huntress) and you did both of those things. Do you think there's something questionable in that?

@Everyone

- Do you think scum would've known that Roshar was a roleblocker? Not dragging you into the conversation between Titus and I, but the likelihood of that is a pretty compelling part of my thinking. A yes or no answer would be enough for me to see if it's a reasonable idea.

@HA

- how do you feel about that post considering the quote below? I'll be honest and say that your original comment in 1706 seems like empty content to support a pretty-certain town player.

Everyone else didn't buy my case. And I can see why as I was working backwards. I was actively looking at everything she posted from scum perspective, so I'm not surprised people thought I was tunneling or suffered confbias.

[Ircher]

Prodding Roshar (2d 12h; Weekends are half)

[heuristically_alone]

What's different?

Every time I have played with town titus she has not only been very aggressive but rather crass about it all around.

Here she just seems more mellowed out and more 'appeasy' in general tone. Last time I seen this it was from scum titus.

Makes sense, though I really hate making a vote purely on meta. I like to have in game evidence. Seasoned players know how to change their meta. Is there anything in Titus's "mellpwed out and appeasy tone" that makes it scummy?

[heuristically_alone]

I mean I'm not hyper aware of my partner as scum, which is all I can say confidently

What partner are you talking about?

[heuristically_alone]

@heur you not even gonna insult my pathetic response to your case on me?

I don't insult people's responses. I read and take in what they say, and store it for later.

[a plain farmer]

So, people not voting the heur/Garmr/shaddow slot, are you townreading him, or scumreading him but only at #2 scum, or what?

[Roshar]

Scum reading him,

Will explain properly tonight

[Roshar]

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

I disagree here. One thing that happened is that I clearly hinted that I was going to "explain later", I.e claim. The only players that would have understood this would be scum. After knowing my intentions, I would expect scum to agree with me and vote Huntress in an attempt to distance themselves and cut their losses. Either that or maintain a neutral read on her. I would not expect scum to town read Huntress and scum read me in an attempt to get me to claim. Otherwise they'd have to consider the scrutiny they'd place themselves under when Huntress gets lynched.

[Roshar]

Max was lynched day 2. Look at who he voted and tunnelled...Huntress. Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

I think scum are lynching whoever they can get lynched and whichever town wagon takes.