Open 633: Near Vanilla-GAME OVER

[Nosferatu]

I'll be staying on no lynch for the rest of the day, provided Ranger does not outright scumclaim or no one can hammer.

[Ollie]

Killthestory - seems to have changed from Ranger being a 'prophet' to voting for her just for a hammer, but I doubt that will ever be explained. His posting is too sparse & lacking in content to get a real handle. If I was gonna vote for him it would probably be out of frustration than anything solid but has been more scummy lately. But he felt town early on. So I don't know about him.

Why does an early KTS townread mean that you're null on him whereas for the Rach/Us reads recent scumminess was enough for you to move us to scumleans/scum?

It's not mainly because KTS felt town early. It's because his posting style is hard to read. Lack of content & not backing up what he says most of the time. I asked him to explain his change in attitude towards Ranger & he wouldn't. I thought Rach's vote was alot worse than KTS' as well. IMO if you're gonna bus someone you're gonna be more wary of your vote looking legit, & that vote Rach made woulda been pretty much what I'd look for. Using other people's opinions for your reasoning so they wouldn't find it strange etc. This is enough for a scum lean because my reads are centred around Ranger being scum atm, if she flips town I'll reassess. Not making her a scum read on it though as I don't look for scum teams til we get a scum flip.

& KTS has not done what you two have done (can you respond to what I said specifically about what you've done in earlier post pls). If people come at you with no reasoning they should be pressured, then you see if they actually came at you with the right intentions or any conviction at all. This is because of things like in this game where the Smurf You hydra tried to get me lynched all day 1 (specifically Thor), & as the day wore on he revealed more & more reasoning that looked off & was clearly not reassessing his read on me at all making it obvious they were scum... http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go . This is a scum tell I'm pretty damn happy with because even in my last game I played apart from this one, a player called Joga Bonito tried to get me lynched on day 1 by coming at me with a load of nonsense, he started with a naked vote which was actually a lame trap. I then put him under pressure & counter attacked him & he was basically a carbon copy of Thor in that other game (also scum) I wanted him lynched on day 1 & 2 of the game. His attempt to mislynch me started here & made up most of the posts on day 1... http://www.footballforums.net/threads/t ... 070/page-5 & in that game he came up with a fake claim that convinced the townie with the most town credit he was town, I still wanted him lynched. But I was NKed before I could get it done after going along with everyone else believing his fake claim. So also side note: I don't care if MoI is town reading you. I'm not going to sheep MoI's reads just because he has town credit. I'm forming my own opinions & if I'm wrong I'll learn from it. Hate losing cos I went along with someone else who was wrong though.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Imperium

-

Ocean / RachMarie ISO review –

Ocean’s early focus was on Lowell / Xisi’s slot / Nosferatu.

In re-reading 201 I’m still very much disliking his reaction to being called out for missing me on his reads list and his subsequent “It makes no sense for you to suspect me for Town-reading you”. There is no way he should have missed me as a read when his early attack on Lowell’s slot was based solely on Lowell reading me as Town. And he questioned me about my thoughts on Lowell’s read on me and why I didn’t follow-up with a question to Lowell.

Re-read the tone shift surround Acryon and me starting at 267 after I express suspicion of him. He goes from pushing on Acryon to being suddenly less suspicious of Acryon based on my and Acryon’s interactions.

403begins Ocean’s questioning on the Ranger slot (Jim at the time). Note that his first established read on Jim despite Jim’s mixing of myself and Lowell and other items was slight Town (411). He even defends Ranger’s slot at 469 regarding my pressure on Jim for mixing myself and Lowell in his reads list.

At 594 he is back to softly suspecting Jim based on inconsistencies (one of which he defended Jim on) and Jim flaking. I can easily see this as distancing given he previously light Town read Jim’s slot and the only thing that changed is that Jim was not posting.

743 is interesting – he specifically singles out the Ranger slot as wanting content from. Wanting a partner to pull their weight?

He puts Jim as the last in his scum reads (Town!Snarky, Titus slot, Town!Com and lastly Jim) at 819.

Ocean’s late Day 1 “Everyone don’t lynch CoM we need more input” reads as LAMIST style posting on a player they know isn’t flipping scum.

If you flip town, I'd go after SnarkySnowman and Bellaphant. Both of them are scumreads. Bellaphant has been pretty comfortable with her vote on you and Snarky's play around your wagon suggests ulterior motives to me. My third scumread would probably be Jim. I'd also need to review Lowell, MagnaOfIllusion and Ollie to make sure I'm not missing anything there.

Once again Jim is tucked away at the end of Ocean’s official scum reads list.

Read 987 in context of the above quote – Severa was nowhere near to be seen on the “CoM flips Town” reads yet he’s the Day 2 focus with the Ranger slot once again positioned just outside his direct focus.

Ranger by this point has replaced in and despite him being a so called strong scum-read he does little in probing Ranger. In fact 1175 is all to be seen in that range and there is no evidence he followed up on it. And this is followed up by a shallow Ranger-meta read at 1269.

At 1278 he begins a long string of questioning Ranger. Read that for yourself and decide if that is actual scum-hunting or just a floor show. I’m leaning the latter.

Here’s why I think it is a floor show – at 1356 he hops onto a Ranger wagon I am pushing for. Then at 1478 Ocean hops right back to Snarky with no interactions with Ranger in-between. And follows up with the pre-flip 1552 which I’ve said makes absolutely no sense from someone who supposedly was scum-reading Ranger and just saw Ranger help strongarm a wagon onto Snarky.

Ocean’s early Day 3 vote on Ranger looks like a weak bus to me given he spends the majority of the day arguing with Imperium and myself on why we are Town-reading each other. Read it for yourself.

But do read his jump onto Masq at 1748 and look at the context of why he jumps on that wagon.

Rach replaces in at 1822. She slots Ranger as ‘needing to review’. Said review never happens Day 3. And as noted earlier we have 1925 which I feel is trying to peel Imperium off the Ranger is scum wagon.

[Imperium]

In re-reading 201 I’m still very much disliking his reaction to being called out for missing me on his reads list and his subsequent “It makes no sense for you to suspect me for Town-reading you”. There is no way he should have missed me as a read when his early attack on Lowell’s slot was based solely on Lowell reading me as Town. And he questioned me about my thoughts on Lowell’s read on me and why I didn’t follow-up with a question to Lowell.

I understand why you find his response to him missing out on your reads list; it does feel like appeasement based on how lazy and shoddily thrown together the read is. However, I disagree that him missing the post in the first place as a scumtell; I think that it was something that probably happened genuinely regardless of alignment since I don't think there's motivation to miss a read as either alignment (or more reason that you would miss a read for one alignment or another unless partners are involved). I don't think that his interactions with you at that point were significant enough where forgetting you would be absolutely inexcusable; he asked a question that didn't end up factoring into his final read all that much, and he asked you what you thought of Lowell's townread on you.

Re-read the tone shift surround Acryon and me starting at 267 after I express suspicion of him. He goes from pushing on Acryon to being suddenly less suspicious of Acryon based on my and Acryon’s interactions.

I don't think that this is an unreasonable progression for someone to have; I think that Acryon started looking townier in general through his engagement with you (since the only thing that he was doing before was pushing the KainTepes policy lynch for really weird reasoning). I don't think that as scum, it makes sense for his short flare up of suspicion to be based on your suspicion of you; it started up when you started suspecting him, sure, but it died before you stopped suspecting him.

403begins Ocean’s questioning on the Ranger slot (Jim at the time). Note that his first established read on Jim despite Jim’s mixing of myself and Lowell and other items was slight Town (411). He even defends Ranger’s slot at 469 regarding my pressure on Jim for mixing myself and Lowell in his reads list.

At 594 he is back to softly suspecting Jim based on inconsistencies (one of which he defended Jim on) and Jim flaking. I can easily see this as distancing given he previously light Town read Jim’s slot and the only thing that changed is that Jim was not posting.

You're right that Ocean's read progression on Jim looks pretty weird, in particular the in depth questioning that ended in a slight town read (which wasn't something that he did before, most of his questioning was of suspects only). His later posting around Jim pretends like he was never townreading him ever.

743 is interesting – he specifically singles out the Ranger slot as wanting content from. Wanting a partner to pull their weight?

Eh, this makes more sense from an Ocean!town perspective; Jim was a top suspect of his who disappeared but wasn't an incredibly strong read (the other two suspects of his were Snarky, who had posted about two pages ago, and CoM, who was decently active). I'd imagine Ocean!scum wouldn't care about that so much as he would about getting the guaranteed mislynch in and moving onto the next one, since the CoM lynch was also pretty solidly set in stone by that point.

I acknowledge your point about Jim always ending up as the last scum read in readslist; this point isn't too compelling to me because I thought that Jim ending up as the weakest scumread in those particular points (end of Day 1 especially) made sense considering the okay but low volume to flaking out thing.

Read 987 in context of the above quote – Severa was nowhere near to be seen on the “CoM flips Town” reads yet he’s the Day 2 focus with the Ranger slot once again positioned just outside his direct focus.

I actually thought that the overnight read flip is a decent point in Ocean's favor; Bella and Snarky were both pretty easy targets (if Bella was town, but I don't think that he'd insert his partner into a scumlist when there are townies aplenty to push and he was already weakly distancing with Jim). For one, I think that it was a reasonable transition; we had a lot of problems with RC based on him saying that we were scum if Snarky was mafia and CoM was town right before CoM got lynched. I also think that it would be pretty weird for Oceanwind to push Severa pretty convincingly and then end up killing him at night after his 100% scumread turned out town since he was very obviously a VT thanks to the whole "lynch me" comments.

I don't disagree re: OW's interactions with Ranger. His Masq read is meh.

I don't agree with what you've pointed out in Rach's posts; failing to follow up isn't a particularly strong scumtell for Rach and I don't think that asking me to talk about my read is a particularly alignment relevant post.

[Imperium]

I'd swap out Kil for Nos in your position, but otherwise it's good to me.

I've not read one word from your slot about why you think I'm scum.

This is the post of yours that I ignored?
I didn't give any words on your slot about why I thought you were scum because I voted you on gut, decided I liked a Ranger vote better, then there was a quickhammer. I didn't follow up with that in the beginning of the day because I was more focused on the whole Ranger quickhammering thing. Why did you expect me to make a case on you?

Imperium - No alarm bells from this slot, came across pretty town. Then drops a vote on me which was so half hearted I didn't take it seriously as it had no reasoning & moved 30 minutes later. Then they later implied they were scum reading me. Now I don't remember ever being pushed or properly questioned by these 2. & when I pulled them up on their lack of reasoning it was just ignored. If they think I'm scum, why haven't they made a case against me? Scum lean/almost read.

This should be thoroughly answered by the above. If it isn't, let me know.

Why? & what would it look like if Ranger is scum?

At the time, my answer would have been Ranger/You/KTS. Now, I'm leaning more {Ranger, KTS} + one of {Titus, Ollie}. I thought that group because I felt stronger in other townreads.

I wouldn't say it was some obvious scum tell, as I said directly after what you've quoted...

I'm questioning the validity of the scumtell period. I don't understand your response in saying that it wasn't "some obvious scum tell" when that clearly wasn't my argument.

Do you think that wasn't strange? Explain it for me then.

Sure, it was strange. But I don't see him replacing out unless he was genuinely pissed off. I think emotions are pretty unpredictable since they are pretty heavily affected by outside factors. But weird =/= scum, and you seeming to miss that is the reason why I'm questioning your approach to it.

Not sure how to as I thought that was pretty clear, just tell me what you don't understand.

Do you think Titus is scum because she thought you were pushing you?
What's wrong with her expectation that she would be in your scumreads when she thought you were pushing you?
Why is Titus having you scum in two different scenarios scummy?
Where does the discredit thing come from?

Gotta love gut reads, reads based on nothing. So you had this 'gut read', you coulda then asked me some questions, pushed me to gain further insight, I mean was I your top scum read at that point? But no you then moved off about half an hour later with not a single word about why you'd voted for me. & who did you move off me to? Someone you now seem to be town reading so who the hell are you pushing really, as I said, just looks like busy work, with no conviction to it...

I voted you before I caught up with recent pages because it felt like I hadn't seen like I saw anything from you for a while and my townread on you had been waning for a while. I caught up with recent pages, I found a scumread that I had reasoning for. Why would I question you when you were never a serious suspect of mine? Why would I explain my thought process behind my vote on you when, again, you were not a serious scumread?

Let me clear up that me having paranoia in a MyLo situation doesn't constitute a townread; saying "hmmm, this isn't what I expected, Ranger could be town" =/= "I'm townreading Ranger!".

Then you mention me being scum later, I asked you why & you ignore. You're admitting you ignored what I said, I have that right yes? Your reasoning is because you were floating in the ether? What on earth. Reminder; you posted after I asked you. Only now after I've pressed you into it are you even questioning me. & this is a crucial part of the game which neither of you have previously seemed bothered about until almost being replaced for your inactivity.

I didn't respond to you earlier because my time was limited and responding to you was not a priority of mine. My reasoning is that I almost got replaced for my activity; clearly I've been disengaged from the game for a little while and clearly the vote on you wasn't a vote that I put a large amount of thought into (and I don't understand why you're treating it as something different than it is). I'm questioning you now because I'm around in full; I wasn't around before. I don't understand the point you're bringing up about us almost getting replaced; is there a point here?

It's because his posting style is hard to read. Lack of content & not backing up what he says most of the time.

What did you townread from him early?

Using other people's opinions for your reasoning so they wouldn't find it strange etc. This is enough for a scum lean because my reads are centred around Ranger being scum atm, if she flips town I'll reassess. Not making her a scum read on it though as I don't look for scum teams til we get a scum flip.

The hammer post was a pretty reasonable thing to scumread. I don't understand why you think KTS went from town to scum on Ranger if not for the bus vote and especially don't understand why his lack of an explanation is somehow a plus for him; he pretty clearly doesn't care about looking classically protown regardless of alignment, so why do you think that he would suddenly care about it when bussing a partner?

I don't understand the comparisons you make against us and the other two games; both were attacks that happened early and were going on for a while and were going on for ridiculous reasons. This was a game where we voted you for not that long and voted someone else when we hadn't been around in a while and you're acting like we made a serious push at you and tried to mislynch you but haven't explained it at all.

[Imperium]

So also side note: I don't care if MoI is town reading you. I'm not going to sheep MoI's reads just because he has town credit. I'm forming my own opinions & if I'm wrong I'll learn from it. Hate losing cos I went along with someone else who was wrong though.

I also have no idea why you posted this.

[Ranger]

Serious question I want to ask to MagnaofIllusion and Imperium.
How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Killthestory today?
How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Titus today?

[Killthestory]

F A L S E P R O P H E T

RANGER'S READS TURNED US TO A MISLYNCH, SO HE MUST BE SCUM. HIS READS ARE WRONG, AND HIS READS ARE NEVER WRONG, SO HE MUST BE SCUM.

F A L S E P R O P H E T

[Ranger]

RANGER'S READS TURNED US TO A MISLYNCH, SO HE MUST BE SCUM. HIS READS ARE WRONG, AND HIS READS ARE NEVER WRONG, SO HE MUST BE SCUM.

^Btw, Killthestory already knows this isn't true.

He's also at this point intentionally misgendering me.

[Titus]

*blinks* So much to read.

Why do y'all post so much when I am modding?

[kelbris]

VC 4.06

Titus (0): none
Ranger (2) [L-3]: Killthestory, Titus
MagnaofIllusion (0): none
Imperium (0): none
Killthestory (0): none
Nosferatu (0): none
RachMarie (0): none
Ollie (0): none
No Lynch (1): Nosferatu
not voting: Ranger, Imperium, Ollie, RachMarie, MagnaofIllusion
With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
day 4 has begun, it will end in (expired on 2016-06-04 18:00:00)

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Imperium

-

Ollie ISO review –

Most of his early play revolved around a back and forth with Nosferatu and Oceanwind.
Not seeing a bunch I object to in his Day 1 play to 174. And I like that his read list there only omitted Seshat and KainTepes who has zero posts. Feels much more genuine to me than Ocean’s which missed me.

My only problem with the ISO by the time HA replaces in is that he didn’t even look at Jim’s posting until after the fact (1010). In fact this post to Ranger (1282) gives me some unease. If Jim was “scummy as fuck” why was there no ISO mention of it until after he replaced?

In this review I do see that Ollie was working on Lowell consistently Day 1 and 2 so I feel somewhat better about his Day 3 vote than I do Ocean’s.

Like and agree with assessment of Ranger’s “Oh, Xis is dead” post at 1320. For the record in another game that has recently finished Ranger completely undercuts his “If I was scum I would have looked at the QT to get information” argument as scum –

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66444

I knew karnos could do it. <3

I also knew I was gonna be nightkilled.

The most humorous part is...I actually did, at first, accidentally have a real scumread on karnos. I thought my scumbuddy was BTD6, thus why karnos changed between my first readslist and my second, as I checked the chat and was like, "...oops. This is awkward."

Also like Ollie’s take at 1322 about Ranger’s buddying to RC.

Another point in Ollie’s favor in a Town versus scum read for me is that he went to the Ranger wagon I started Day 2 and stuck with it. And he has what I see as pretty solid interaction with Ranger around that point )1450 as an example).

Starts Day 3 continuing that Ranger vote.

That brings us to today.

Frankly I don’t see Ollie as a good fit for Ranger partner. He’s actually engaged on scum-hunting Ranger and the point he makes about Ranger’s flip-flop Day 2 to Day 3 on Ollie is pretty spot on.

[Imperium]

My biggest reason for townreading OceanWind is based on not only how constantly he reevaluated reads, but how much effort and how many reads he had based on the town versus town Snarky/CoM wagons D1. In the scumgames of his that I reviewed (Micro 550, Micro 539, Blitz 1), he never came close to or suggested stalling a wagon for towncred or doing anything other than accepting a lynch when it came, and I don't really see why this game would be the sole exception; the point Day 1 when he constantly said that he wanted the day to go longer and needed more time to reanalyze lines up far heavier with his town game (just like the one that Rach quoted). He's put an obscene amount of effort into doing things that it doesn't make any sense for scum to do (Snarky push, his push on us). He didn't really buddy up to anyone throughout the entire game which would be extraordinarily weird for scum who thrives off having town friends. I think that his reaming out Snarky for shitty play is also genuine and something that seems to occur far more often in town games than scum games.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eh ... perhaps I'm confirmed biased on Ocean but his end of Day 2 pre-flip post I am having huge trouble getting past as anything that comes from a realistic semblence of Town mindset.

And I'm not sold that it has to be either Rach or Ollie in the third slot. Titus's play is so disconnected that I could see diving that slot again. And I've already staked out my thoughts on Nos.

[Imperium]

With regards to his Snarky/CoM reaction, the argument could be made that he was setting up for the CoM lynch and trying to solidify the Snarky mislynch the next day, but that seems pretty unlikely to me considering how mislynchable Snarky was and how hard RC was pushing Snarky the day before. And again, this is the sheer effort that Ocean put into his last-minute push on snarky:

Yeah, that case by SnarkySnowman was baloney. The part about "derailing the more thorough cases against Bellaphant" was a huge stretch. I'm actually leaning towards Bellaphant and SnarkySnowman being mafia together. Considering he has Bellaphant as a "townlean," it is odd the way he is trying to tie Bellaphant and Severa together and accusing Severa of shutting down discussion on Bellaphant. I'd rather lynch SnarkySnowman today. Do we have the time and the numbers to switch?

UNVOTE: ChurchOfMercy
VOTE: SnarkySnowman

Based on his response to SnarkySnowman's case, yeah. I know you think Severa is mafia but look at SnarkySnowman's case on him and how he positioned himself to "compromise" on you. The case is complete nonsense. His not taking a position on you probably means he thinks your lynch is achievable without his support. So, the following day, he can look like he has his hands clean and continue pushing Severa. The "association" is crap as well. Once you flip town, he'll simply go back to "oh, it was Severa all along, not ChurchOfMercy."

Yeah, I don't feel that strongly that ChurchOfMercy is town but enough to want SnarkySnowman first, and then rethink. But I think if SnarkySnowman and ChurchOfMercy were mafia together, Snarky probably wouldn't hesitate to vote a doomed partner and instead vote a player he knows he has no chance of lynching.

The fact that we’ve had such trouble getting Church to L-1 in the first place combined with this sudden very, very late day counter-wagon building makes me feel even better about the CoM lynch.

We had no trouble getting ChurchOfMercy up to L-1. People kept unvoting because they didn't want them in hammer range but for the vast majority of the day, ChurchOfMercy was the default lynch option. It's only now that another option emerged. What trouble are you talking about?

You replaced a flaked slot with no posts. You hop on the leading wagon with no reasoning other than “CoM is scum” and have done NO scum-hunting despite there being a thread full of content to discuss. Not hard to see your slot as a strong scum candidate – I certainly do.

Are you saying Severa is mafia with ChurchOfMercy or that he's mafia in the event ChurchOfMercy flips town? If the former, do you think he was bussing?

My townread on him comes from how he reacted to the case on him. The sudden aggression looked like town that thought they finally found something strong to push on. Severa wasn't in any real danger of being lynched so I don't know why he as mafia would panic at SnarkySnowman catching him and push back hard rather than stay on the bus/mislynch of ChurchOfMercy and put off Snarky for the following day.

I'm also interested in your thoughts about Snarky's actual case. Specifically, the notion that KillTheStory's case on Bellaphant was good and that Severa was derailing a legitimate line of enquiry. I found KillTheStory's case mediocre and attitude unproductive so it wasn't unreasonable for Severa to make that "god's gift to scumhunting" quip.

---

My initial impression is that derailing the CoM wagon to lynch Snarky is stupid; I've had decently strong scum reads on both slots for a while now, they are now shaping up as counter wagons and are still not cross voting (instead, they are both pushing a third target).

Why is it stupid to lynch Snarky if you have a decent scumread on the slot? What do you think of Snarky's case on Severa?

3. Ok, I didn't explain this well: reading through the game as a whole I found myself not agreeing with magna's points, but when I looked at them in iso I saw a tonne of thought progression and engagement - a lot of the time I look at whether I can see a sustained thought process, rather than if I directly agree with it. The frustration with acron seemed real, 162 was good, they pushed me for follow up about kt

I liked this post from Bella - this is a fairly insightful post from her on Magna and I think it's probably indicative of a town approach; no, it's nothing huge or really significant and I'm having trouble forming the right words, but I think that the reasons she's town reading Magna for are good ones and I think that it's less likely she would come to the right conclusion if she was scum.

While I didn't find that bit particularly scummy, it is vague to the point I'm not really sure what she's talking about. Decent players can fake thought progressions even as mafia and stay fairly engaged with the game, be frustrated at people and so on.

More than that though, I don't find her approach to the argument between MagnaOfIllusion and Acryon to be original. She's just going along with Magna's points using similar wording ("weaseling"), and just parroting what Magna said. I didn't get the feeling that she felt strongly one way or another or even understood the specifics of their argument. She just told me vague stuff like "

I just feel there's a lot of distancing between what was said between one time and the next around the same core idea

" which seems evasive and a way to just address my suspicion so I'd get off of her rather than positively asserting that Acryon is mafia for such and such reasons and that I should see it.

There's also her repeated dodging of my request to post links to games of Ollie's that she read. If she really did read them, posting the evidence shouldn't take so long. But on the 12th, when she first got to my question, she said she'll post the following day. Yesterday the 14th, when she came back, she modified that and said that I should give her a reason for asking and if she can get behind that, then she'd post the links. That makes me suspect that she didn't actually do the reading.

lowell continues to not impress.

And, oddly enough, I agree with this. Lowell was a town read of mine early game, but since then he's faded into the deep dark nothingness and is starting to play exactly like I expected his scum game to look like. I like this observation as well!

I've been in the same place (townreading Lowell mid-D1 and then wondering if I'm wrong), but it's the little things he does like popping up to say that Severa was town at a time when others were pushing him that re-inforce my townread. It's more that Lowell seeing what I'm seeing is relatable.

I thought Bellaphant's read on Lowell was rather shallow. She's voting for ChurchOfMercy, yet Lowell was the first person to bring up that are likely mafia which was the turning point for my read. Bellaphant doesn't seem to have given it a second glance.

I think the scumteam is comprised of SnarkySnowman, Bellaphant, and one of Jim or ChurchOfMercy. The first two actually make a decent amount of sense as a team. Snarky trying to tie Severa to Bellaphant despite having her as a townread is one such indication. What actually made me second-guess the most on ChurchOfMercy though is that Snarky is happy to sit on the sidelines and let the lynch go through without committing to it. That reads like he things we can lynch them without his support. You are scumreading both ChurchOfMercy and SnarkySnowman. Can you elaborate on what you think of Snarky's attitude towards ChurchOfMercy?

Have you done any research into Snowman's meta? Machina Mafia was likely the townies game he has ever played, and it wasn't very dissimilar from this game.

I remember vaguely reading the game towards the end where Titus and DiamondSentinel handed mafia the win. But I don't remember SnarkySnowman. Maybe I'll go look if I have time.

What?
You think that Snarky as scum saw a perfectly viable mislynch and instead of just cashing in on it (because everyone agreed with it), he instead decided to make a push on Severa, who a majority of town players were town reading?

Where do you get that the majority of players were townreading Severa? I had him as my second scumread and most people just seemed disappointed with how Severa is not posting much content. But we agree that Severa wasn't likely to be lynched today. So, if Snarky is mafia, why does he ignore the wagon on his buddy and place his vote on an unlikely lynch? On the other hand, if ChurchOfMercy is town that is the default lynch of the day, you don't think mafia would consider the idea of keeping their hands clean knowing that they'll get the mislynch anyways?

Why wouldn't he just vote on the Church wagon though, especially as he's stated that he's not town reading them? His hands wouldn't be dirty anyway as he's not the main pusher of that wagon. He could very easily follow along with the crowd today and not look bad.

Because his vote is not needed to achieve the mislynch. And the "talking like they are town" thing, I'm conflicted on Church.

So, here's Snarky's first content post in the game:

Here's a readlist.

Town {MagnaofIllusion, Oceanwind, Ollie}
Townlean {Bellephant, Jim, acryon, Killthestory}
Scumlean {Lowell, Imperium, Nosferatu, ChurchofMercy}
Scum {Severa}

ChurchofMercy is interesting, because I see a lot of associatives with them (and a lot of info to be gained from that lynch), but I don't necessarily think they're scum, so I'd like to consider. Let me read that one a little more thoroughly.

Severa, on the other hand, has done almost nothing and I feel like that's a particularly worthy lynch, if we run up against it. Also, UNVOTE:

a. The only reason he has for Severa being mafia is "doing almost nothing" which is pretty weak for twenty pages of content read.
b. Doesn't vote Severa here (wants others to make the first move).
c. Sees a lot of "associatives" with ChurchOfMercy. Doesn't explain what these are. Doesn't explain any of his reads despite being asked twice. Claims he wants to read "more thoroughly" but don't necessarily think they are scum. This is the hedging that I'm talking about. ChurchOfMercy is all but a default lynch for the day and he's refusing to take a stance and commit to a position. By the way, he never followed up on the "more thorough read." His wording here (info-lynch) also suggests that he doesn't want responsibility for the townflip. Mafia don't call their partners lynches "info-lynches." Especially not newbie-type mafia like Snarky-Snowman.

VOTE: Severa

A lot of people call him out for his lack of vote so he puts a vote on Severa. By the way, this doesn't make sense with his earlier stance that he'd vote Severa if a wagon forms since only one vote was on Severa. It looks more like he buckled under pressure and cast a vote.

Why do you talk like you think you're god's gift to scumhunting?
I'll give you a little hint: you're not.
I will not be unvoting CoM today unless something big happens.

This, directed at Kts, feels like it's meant to be de-railing to one of the most thorough cases (against Bella) that I've seen Kts make.

Killthestory basically said "we're lynching Bellaphant today" here. She didn't make a "case" much less a thorough one. This is bullshit.

I don't really understand the need to end the day right away. We don't have much to lose from Jim or his replacement (a slot that I think has a good chance of flipping mafia) committing to positions on ChurchOfMercy and SnarkySnowman. My top suspects are those three and Bellaphant so the more I see them all interacting, the better it is for later. Jim or his replacement catching up during the night doesn't solve that. Besides I'd rather we don't decide lynches based on high-volume last minute posting.

1. Snarky did say that he'd vote Severa "if we run up against it." That's not a narrative I'm creating.

2. You keep implying that if there's a near guaranteed mislynch, mafia would definitely hop on rather than hesitate to join the wagon or create counterwagons so that they can push the following day. A mafia player's dream ending to day one is two town counterwagons because the next day, the people who didn't get their lynch will push that wagon. You are acting like their only option is to hop onto that certain mislynch and I don't agree with that even remotely.

3. If he pushes Severa and somehow manages to swing the votes, chances are people are going to go back to ChurchOfMercy the following day. An unexpected lynch usually results in the previous days suspicions being continued. But if he pushes Severa and fails, a) people will likely look at the ChurchOfMercy mislynch wagon (assuming they are town) for mafia letting him evade suspicion. b) He can simply continue the push the following day. I think if he made a late hop onto the Church wagon, people would likely find it scummy and he's self-conscious about that.

Snarky gets mislynched/immediately vigged a lot.

I looked through the first few links you gave and skimmed Snarky's ISO briefly. He does seem to just post naked reads lists and have low activity relative to the rest of the game so I'll grant that maybe he's just lynchbait. I still want to see him post a lot more and not just rush the lynch today. Your point on Albert Rampage is noted. There were a couple of games I read of his where he had a lot of passion for the game which he isn't showing here.

This is not a good move to do regardless of alignment; I don't understand why you say that newb-scum wouldn't say that their partner's lynch had information (if he said he was lynching CoM for information, that would be an abnormal bus and thus would be an unlikely interaction. Saying nothing alignment indicative about your partner is new-scum 101).

He said a ChurchOfMercy lynch would yield information. That looks like he's setting up to "compromise" on them if it is needed. That would also be the reason why he has them as a leaning scumread as opposed to a townread. He wants to leave open the option to vote them if it comes down to it.

---

Anyways, it seems I'm outnumbered and there just aren't enough people who want to lynch SnarkySnowman. I'll roll with a ChurchOfMercy lynch but I want the full day utilized and no hammer before Jim's replacement has a chance to post.

ChurchOfMercy is at L-2 with KillTheStory claiming intent to hammer so effective L-1. No one else vote since I really would prefer we don't end this day early.

My primary pool of mafia is still SnarkySnowman, Bellaphant, ChurchOfMercy, and Jim in that order.

I'm less sure about townreads on Lowell and Imperium. Lowell because of his post defending Snarky and some of his later posts not making sense. I do think he's town if ChurchOfMercy is mafia though. I don't buy that he's bussing them. Imperium because a lot of their reasoning doesn't make internal sense. The Lowell-bussing-Church argument is one. Their townread on Bellaphant is shallow and the intense frustration over the SnarkySnowman wagon doesn't make sense when the latter was their second scumread. I also don't like the overly aggressive posturing and it seems a lot different from the game I played with Nachomamma8 where he was a lot more diplomatic and had a "positive energy" for lack of a better word. Specifically the parts where they accused me of "creating a narrative" around Snarky, and the latest posts (807, 814). If Bellaphant and Snarky are mafia like I think, Imperium needs to be looked at.

My read on Ollie is a lot weaker now considering he hasn't done much of anything lately. But the things I townread him for early are pretty strong towntells so he's still leaning town. KillTheStory, MagnaOfIllusion, Nosferatu, Acryon, Xisiqomelir, and Severa are all town.

There is no way in hell that I would even consider putting this much effort into setting up a mislynch on Snarky of all people (who was very very likely getting mislynched the next day) when I had already secured my spot on the current mislynch wagon and said mislynch wagon was literally seconds in going through. If Ocean is scum, there had to be something more complicated that was driving him other than pursuit of towncred, but I have no idea what it could be. If Ocean is town, motivation is clear; he was getting paranoid, he was reevaluating, he was trying to push elsewhere.

[Imperium]

Eh ... perhaps I'm confirmed biased on Ocean but his end of Day 2 pre-flip post I am having huge trouble getting past as anything that comes from a realistic semblence of Town mindset.

Because he flipped so hard on someone he was pretty strongly scumreading or because he bought Snarky claiming town in twilight so quickly?
If it's the second reason, I think that people are more gullible than you think - I tend to claim town in twilight as scum mainly because people's scramble to reassess reads with me!town are usually entertaining to see, especially if they've been pushing me pretty hard previously. If it's the first part, then I don't think his Snarky read was that strong; his read showed signs of breaking earlier and there were a good number of posts like this:

So, I don't trust anyone at this point. Mostly, I'm frustrated that no one really cares about the game except you, Ranger, and killthestory. Anyone could be mafia for all I know, except maybe kill, Nosferatu, and Acryon's empty seat.

that made it seem like he was feeling pretty lost in the game in general, so his willingness to believe that he mislynched again doesn't actually seem all that outlandish to me.

[Ranger]

For the record in another game that has recently finished Ranger completely undercuts his “If I was scum I would have looked at the QT to get information” argument as scum –

Wrong again!

That game, I checked the PT first.

Then I came to the thread, and had already forgotten my scumbuddy.
But then, a new post happened in the scum thread, which made me check it again.
And

then

I remembered karnos was my scumbuddy.
Karons as my scumbuddy was

in my role PM

. Since the game's over, I can quote it too.

Welcome, Ranger. You are a Mafia Goon (AKA Enemies),

along with your partners, Karnos.

Abilities:
Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partners here http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=66451.
Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Win condition:
You win when all members of the town have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Please reply with your role to confirm.

The order of events here was, I read my role PM. I confirmed. I went to the scum thread. I posted 1. At that point, prior to karnos posting, day one started. The topic was, therefore, supposed to be locked. Somehow, in spite of it being in my role PM,

and

listed in the first post in there, I forgot karnos was my scumbuddy. I posted my first readslist in the game. karnos, meanwhile, during D1, posted in the scum thread. Kuroi then locked the scum thread, posting 3 in the process. At that stage, I checked my private topics again and saw there were new posts in the thread. When rereading the thread, with karnos having actually posted in there and seeing karnos's name listed in the OP, I was confused, until I realized I had misremembered it as BTD6. I then made the appropriate changes in my readslist.

So. Once again. My point holds.

Also,

Serious question I want to ask to

MagnaofIllusion and Imperium

.
How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Killthestory today?
How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Titus today?

[Imperium]

How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Killthestory today?
How receptive are you to the idea of lynching Titus today?

I'd feel more receptive to these things if I felt townier about you.
What do you think of our exchange on OceanWind/Rach? What do you think about Ollie?

[Ranger]

What do you think of our exchange on OceanWind/Rach? What do you think about Ollie?

Well it comes down at least partially to your analysis versus MagnaofIllusions, and bluntly...your analysis is done independently of my alignment, whereas MagnaofIllusion's relies heavily on a premise which is inherently false. So given that? I'd buy OceanWind/RachMarie as town and Ollie as scum.

I mostly asked about Killthestory and Titus though, because regardless of which in {RachMarie, Ollie} is scum, both Titus and Killthestory are scum, and thus, safer lynches to make.

[Titus]

Eh ... perhaps I'm confirmed biased on Ocean but his end of Day 2 pre-flip post I am having huge trouble getting past as anything that comes from a realistic semblence of Town mindset.

And I'm not sold that it has to be either Rach or Ollie in the third slot. Titus's play is so disconnected that I could see diving that slot again. And I've already staked out my thoughts on Nos.

I am disconnected. I am royally confused. Imperium's continued life in this game with no kills being blocked and no PRs flipping makes about as much sense as wings on an ant. Zero.I cannot figure out why that is.

Now's play makes no sense.

Ollie seems to be acting inconsistent with any sort of rational thought.

I feel better about RachMarie but my conftown read doesn't and I don't get why.

I am trying to find people I feel 100% in townreading and I cannot.

It makes me feel disconnected and that the best move is to flip obvscum Ranger and wait for the best move.

[Imperium]

And I like that his read list there only omitted Seshat and KainTepes who has zero posts. Feels much more genuine to me than Ocean’s which missed me.

I don't think that a player being capable of making a complete readslist is particularly alignment indicative.
This is probably confirmation bias from my end, but I still think that Ollie townreading Church for "supporting him" is stupid and fake; I originally thought that it was because they were partners (for a brief moment), but I think it makes more sense if he was trying to find a reason to white-knight him. This is also the second reference to the Dingus game that's used in order to support a weird read, which I don't like; it feels like he knows that the read is abnormal, but is trying to use past experience to explain why. Like, okay. He got attacked by a Mafia player a couple of times. Why does that mean that he townreads people who defend him and scumreads people that attack him?

I think posting another reads list in 265 and calling it more "solid" is awkward; he made it apparently because he realized he was townreading people too easily who were townreading him and this reads list was fixing it, but I think that it's more along the lines of him readjusting after his read on CoM started getting him in trouble.

I think that the way that he interacted with the Snarky/CoM wagons (voting for the second mislynch while calling the push on the first one bad but not calling it town) is more along the lines of how I expected scum to approach the first day; in particular, I'd like to highlight this post:

Severa (2): ChurchofMercy, SnarkySnowman

I see Severa as town, reckless posting from the time she got started to now. She's very emotional & I find that easy to read. She's almost one of my 3 proper town reads but I'd like to see a town & a scum game from them before I go that far. Should be a pretty easy player to read just by reading past games.

With the extension of the day we have enough time to make a decision between these two...

ChurchOfMercy (6) [L-2]: Lowell, Imperium, Bellaphant, MagnaofIllusion, acryon, Killthestory

I have sympathy for a hydra that comes under fire because it can be hard to allay people's suspicions about you once the ball is rolling. I had a hydra game where we were pestered constantly, & with two people you can end up pissing off almost everybody. But they are a very confusing slot now so I can't get a read either way. It would be the safe move to lynch Church as they look like being a VT & we do get alot of info. & they could be annoying to sort if they survive. But when I think about those as reasons for voting for Church, they seem like bullshit reasons.

SnarkySnowman (3): Severa, OceanWind, Xisiqomelir

Initially I saw Snarky's reads list 528 as a positive because he had me, OW & MoI as town & we were finally getting something to read from that slot. From reassessing my own reads from my 1st reads list to my 2nd I've realized how much I've been wanting to town read people who are town reading me so I got rid of those kinds of reads in my 2nd list. Snarky wasn't in the game when I made my 2nd list so he's slipped through my net. I wouldn't say I was town reading him but I deffo gave him a pass. Looking at that list again, his 3 town reads were pretty safe & could have been pre-emptive placatory reads so he could have an easy life, because the 3 of us were the ones going after people. & no reasoning for his reads despite being perfectly happy to sort everyone into sections. I found plenty of content to fuel my reads for my 2nd list, & this was before Snarky's list so I would expect him to be able to do that as well. He wouldn't quite be in my scum list, but he's lower down my totem poll than Church.

Today hasn't ended up great in terms of helping me sort people; with none of my top scum reads on the table for the lynch. & none of them are very involved in any of the wagons. But when I think back to a week ago when I wanted to try & get something else going instead of a Church wagon, people were stubbornly sticking to voting for him. Even now after all this late in the day madness, he's the clear vote leader. I think at least some people are going for Church because they became the easy option. & kinda related to that, looking at the wagons... Lowell & Bella on Church's wagon isn't exactly filling me with confidence about them being scum & OW & Severa are on Snarky's. So my vote goes here. VOTE: SnarkySnowman

Snarky can you flesh out this reads list with reasoning please 528 & talk me through any changes in your reads since you made it.

I dislike how he doesn't so much as make an attempt to sort out CoM's alignment; he says that they're confusing but doesn't so much as comment on any of the reasons that people are scumreading them, nor actually looks into any of their posts. I also don't understand where the "I think that CoM is VT and annoying and we get a lot of info but those are bullshit reasons so I won't vote there" thing comes from; those weren't reasons that anyone else were talking so why did he bring them up?

His piece on Snarky is garbage; I don't like that the "I was okay with Snarky because he was townreading me! Oops!" bit came up again, and the case Ollie posts on him is no more complicated than "I think Snarky could have posted more content".

He justifies the weakness of this post by talking about how he couldn't get anything done because of the CoM wagon but that's just not true; the only thing that he tried to get going was a Nosferatu wagon, but it's not like he actually pushed for one; the only interactions he had with her after her vote were questions and then saying that she looked townier. He also talks about how his top scum reads (which were Nosferatu, Lowell, Bella) weren't very involved in the wagons, but that's also inaccurate; Lowell and Bella were both voting Snarky, and the only reaction Ollie has to that is a throwaway mention of it at the very end of the case whereas if Ollie was town I would expect two of his scumreads voting a major wagon that he's not that sure about in the first place to be more of a sticking point.

[Imperium]

My only problem with the ISO by the time HA replaces in is that he didn’t even look at Jim’s posting until after the fact (1010). In fact this post to Ranger (1282) gives me some unease. If Jim was “scummy as fuck” why was there no ISO mention of it until after he replaced?

Actually, I think this post is a bit of a smoking gun if Ranger flips scum - 1010 comes immediately after HA replaced into the game and made his opening posts (which were ridiculous), when before that there wasn't a single mention of Jim. I can see scum!Ollie seeing that his partner's posts are terrible and deciding to bus, but I can't really imagine town!Ollie seeing that Jim was very obviously scum and not saying anything about it until after they are replaced and someone else starts posting. In my opinion, this also hurts the towncred he got from pushing at Ranger quite a bit - it looks like he planned a bus and I don't think that he'd go from ignoring to bussing to ignoring again after the groundwork he laid down from when HA replaced in.

[Titus]

*waves* Anyone help me?

[Ollie]

@Imperium

are you town reading Ranger atm? Can you answer that in as much detail as possible please.

Not sure how to as I thought that was pretty clear, just tell me what you don't understand.

Do you think Titus is scum because she thought you were pushing you?
What's wrong with her expectation that she would be in your scumreads when she thought you were pushing you?
Why is Titus having you scum in two different scenarios scummy?
Where does the discredit thing come from?

I take it you mean she thought I was pushing her in those first two questions... No I think coming up with only 2 possible scenarios where I'm scum in both is scummy, I mean just for questioning her. I will pressure who I want & I don't expect to be scum read just for doing that. Yet she fired back to my questioning with those two scenarios & then said I was obvious scum. & then what a major reach saying the person I want to lynch has coached me on her. She looks like she's throwing loads of shit to see what sticks to discredit me & try & prevent me from taking a good look at her. Our interactions never progressed beyond that post if you notice. All indirect statements about me but no further interaction from her side. She just shut it down & she's now retreated from the game.

Then you mention me being scum later, I asked you why & you ignore. You're admitting you ignored what I said, I have that right yes? Your reasoning is because you were floating in the ether? What on earth. Reminder; you posted after I asked you. Only now after I've pressed you into it are you even questioning me. & this is a crucial part of the game which neither of you have previously seemed bothered about until almost being replaced for your inactivity.

I didn't respond to you earlier because my time was limited and responding to you was not a priority of mine. My reasoning is that I almost got replaced for my activity; clearly I've been disengaged from the game for a little while and clearly the vote on you wasn't a vote that I put a large amount of thought into (and I don't understand why you're treating it as something different than it is). I'm questioning you now because I'm around in full; I wasn't around before. I don't understand the point you're bringing up about us almost getting replaced; is there a point here?

Why weren't you engaged in the game?

It's because his posting style is hard to read. Lack of content & not backing up what he says most of the time.

What did you townread from him early?

It's ages ago now but I picked out this post in my 2nd reads list. Just blatantly going after someone with that kind of arrogance. So tone but not just that, but the tone was directed towards...

dude im literally too good.

church youre getting lynched today you scumlords

...Also I remember that I liked that he was scum reading the Bellaphant slot. She was a scum leans of mine at the time. & he also tried to get a different wagon going than the ones people seemed rooted to which I didn't like. & also his interactions with me.

Using other people's opinions for your reasoning so they wouldn't find it strange etc. This is enough for a scum lean because my reads are centred around Ranger being scum atm, if she flips town I'll reassess. Not making her a scum read on it though as I don't look for scum teams til we get a scum flip.

The hammer post was a pretty reasonable thing to scumread. I don't understand why you think KTS went from town to scum on Ranger if not for the bus vote and especially don't understand why his lack of an explanation is somehow a plus for him; he pretty clearly doesn't care about looking classically protown regardless of alignment, so why do you think that he would suddenly care about it when bussing a partner?

I don't understand the comparisons you make against us and the other two games; both were attacks that happened early and were going on for a while and were going on for ridiculous reasons. This was a game where we voted you for not that long and voted someone else when we hadn't been around in a while and you're acting like we made a serious push at you and tried to mislynch you but haven't explained it at all.

Voting for somebody just cos 2 other people are scum reading them is weak justification.

Kill and Imp are both in favor of a Ranger lynch, and that hammer post of oops I might be lynched at only L3 with masq at L1 umm no, just no.

VOTE: Ranger

...The lack of explanation is not a plus for KTS, it means it's hard for me to get a handle on him. But that's a good point actually: he probably wouldn't care, again his attitude, his style, all that shit makes him hard to read & I can't get a handle on him. But still, Rach did justify her vote, & the justification was very weak.

You've came at me sneakily with no conviction. Don't just boil it down to voting for me briefly then moving your vote off. You also said you thought I was scum in later interaction with I think it was Nos? which is when I wanted clarification on it as then it pinged me as the same kind of thing I've experienced from scum before (I gave a couple of examples of when). Then when you ignored it you made my scum pile. You see the process there? The day, timing or how overt the attack is has no relevance. I'm showing why it's a scum tell I will ride with.

[Imperium]

I am disconnected. I am royally confused. Imperium's continued life in this game with no kills being blocked and no PRs flipping makes about as much sense as wings on an ant. Zero.I cannot figure out why that is.

http://ant.edb.miyakyo-u.ac.jp/BE/Kingd ... 1617e.html

I'm not sure how I can help you re: my slot.
I don't think either of our pushes on CoM or Snarky were particularly unreasonable, or how you expected us to deal with the Masquerade lynch.
I don't see how these kills are anything but garbage; Xisiq wouldn't be a threat to us, RC was obviously a VT thanks to his "lynch me" post, and I can't wrap my head around the massive kill at all.
We've also been inactive for a decent chunk of the game (remember when we were almost replaced?), which is probably a small part of the explanation for why we aren't dead but the bigger picture is that the kills are garbage.