Mini 1800 - Game Over

[qubixes]

What is the point of tying you and Karnos together if Karnos is town? He said that you and Karnos probably share the same alignment, so after Karnos supposedly (according to you) flips town, he wouldn't go after you? I just don't see the point from a scum perspective.

I think that the amount of care to figure the game out is for a large part a personality thing. But I still think scum is more worried about getting flak for saying something stupid (like mixing up your argument) than town.

If you don't think Mathblade was confused, then let's call it sloppy instead?

[MechaGoomba]

If Karnos flips town, I think you or Masquerade would make good partners for somehow knowing he is town.

So if they're scum if Karnos is scum and also if Karnos is town, wouldn't that just make them scum?
I get what you're going for; the whole "let's oppose the inevitable wagon to get towncred when they flip town" thing is rather common.
However, I'd be more inclined to look in other places (not going to say it right now to avoid tipping people off, expect me to return to this during twilight or D2).

[karnos]

Karnos can you post some updated reads?
I have thoughts but no time so will talk about them later today.

Looks like it might be a slow day at work, so I should have plenty of time.

But now I have a bit of a dilemma.

I agree with most of your post and I'm happy Karnos finally makes it to L-1. Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC..

At this point I'm not willing to compromise, and I don't think there's much that will change my willingness.

It sounds like a decision has already been made.

[karnos]

Please don't quick hammer. Actually has anyone posted intent to hammer? I just don't want to claim unless it's absolutely necessary, it's really better for my role to remain unknown.

[qubixes]

If Karnos flips town, I think you or Masquerade would make good partners for somehow knowing he is town.

So if they're scum if Karnos is scum and also if Karnos is town, wouldn't that just make them scum?
I get what you're going for; the whole "let's oppose the inevitable wagon to get towncred when they flip town" thing is rather common.
However, I'd be more inclined to look in other places (not going to say it right now to avoid tipping people off, expect me to return to this during twilight or D2).

It's imo not only the towncred. Getting lynch on another townie now, makes the path tomorrow much easier (get Karnos lynched). Anyway, I don't feel particularly strong about that connection, and I don't think Karnos will flip town, so it's rather futile to think about it now. Better save it for tomorrow. In case Karnos flips scum, I don't think both of them are scum. One of them maybe (leaning towards Masq then).

@Karnos: If you're town here there's no dilemma. If you're scum though the dilemma is pretty real indeed. I have seen no intent to hammer.

[karnos]

The dilemma is that I am wondering if there might be a town power role in this game that, by nature of how it is played I thought it was scummy, but really the player was just taking advantage of the role.

I might have said too much already, but you are pushing me into a corner. I don't want to out a town power role.

[Saru]

I have to say, I agree with Wingback when he says that it feels like MathBlade is trying to push an agenda by trying to tie anyone who defends Karnos to him as a scum partner. That just seems too simplistic. The agenda itself doesn't feel scummy, mostly misguided. For what it's worth, I don't have any intent to hammer. After my meta analysis on Karnos, I was feeling pretty strong about him flipping scum, but those who came to his defense(mainly Wingback) have put up some good points. Not great, but good enough to prevent me from voting.

Essentially, I'm more or less neutral with Karnos at this point. Both sides seem to be making decent arguments to support their agendas. That being said, I might need to go back and reread the past couple of pages to truly understand the issue at hand and then make an informed decision.

[Kappy]

I don't really have anything to add right now. I can reiterate- I will claim if we get to L-1 with intent to hammer, but I'd rather not have to claim for obvious reasons.

I would expect you to wait till L-1 with intent.

[Kappy]

@Kappy

Your read on Sickofit1138 in 181 sounded much stronger than the evidence that you presented in 235. In particular, you had cited his 134 and 152 when you first changed your read, but when you finally made the longer post your objections seemed to be that 134 was "an excuse" and that 152 is nonsensical. Are you able to further elaborate on why those things made you swing your read so strongly?

I called 134 an excuse in both posts. To clarify, I had said 152 bothered me, and I meant it bothered me for the reason I stated in 235, he seemed to be trying for an extra town lynch. Oh, and also that he mispelled tomorrow.[/quote]
This one isn't quite an answer to my question. My point is that your stated reasons in 235 do not match the strength of your stated suspicion in 181. Are you able to further elaborate on why those reasons are stronger than I think, or why your read was weaker than I think?[/quote]
I don't think 181's reasons were paticularly strong. Yes, Sick was a strong scumread, but I thought 235 was sufficient explanation.

[qubixes]

Well, then don't out them if you think it is a town power role? I'm not seeing the problem here. You're also not required to give a full read list. Just start somewhere, where you think your effort is best used. Also, I'm not pushing you in a corner to get you to out a town power role, that is a silly allegation.

[MathBlade]

Have to go to work now so this is a quick phone post. Back late this evening.

@quibixes -- Thanks for pointing out the error. Was reading a lot of pages and I see where I crisscrossed one of the replacements. Will need to reread the Sick/Persivul discussion again because Wingback's response sketches me out and feels like OMGUS. But at the same time that fight felt so TvT.

@Saru -- Really? How the hell do you explain some of Karnos's posts coming from a townie? The defenses seem like stretches to say the least. I am going to reread after work and see if the Wingback part was sleep deprivation but Karnos's post. Explain to me how a townie has some of the posts I have cited. Pretty much anyone not voting Karnos I want an explanation from because that shit doesn't fly. It is the entire context of Karnos's posts that are bad.

If you have questions for me to respond when I get back please @Mathblade me.

[karnos]

Well, then don't out them if you think it is a town power role? I'm not seeing the problem here.

Well yeah you don't see the problem, you aren't the one being lynched. As much as I hate to do it, I'd rather share my theory and possibly out a PR than see myself get lynched for no gain.

Anyway, it can be tough to give unbiased reads when I am in the spotlight like this, I'll try:

Dierfire - I don't like you, but I am not thinking you are scum exactly. I like that you are doing your own homework at least.

The Bulge (replaces Chumba) - MIA? I thought Chumba seemed pretty town, but since being replaced the bulge has not been very talkative. Literally only one post in the last 5 days. busy? hiding?

species - Totally MIA. If I were to follow my instincts, I'd say here is the scum right here, hiding in plain sight... but the meta here seems to be that MIA players are null/town, and focus on the hiders is apparently a HUGE scum tell. If he needs a replace, he needs a replace. If not, it's extremely suspicious to me that he has been hiding so long.

JohnnyFarrar (replaces ShadyHood) - I like what I have read so far. Not afraid to push, but not easily manipulated either. And I am not just saying that because he could hammer me if he wanted. Please catch-up and offer your input.

Kappy - Early on, I took kappy for a null/town who could be easily miss-lynched due to an immature play style. Since than inconsistencies pushed that read down, but I still don't think he is obvious scum. Maybe I am just hanging on to hope, because I sense that defending him is part of what brought a wagon to myself, I don't want to find out I was defending a scum.

Persivul - I've read him as town most of the game. I'd love to see his take on whats going on, not just on me.

Saved these for last, because they are sort of a special read IMO:

Mathblade (replaces Snork)- Here is a scenario. replaces into a scum slot, seeing a big wagon on town, hit the jackpot! He just had to hammer a few nails into my coffin, and he has a free town lynch without the nasty scummy look from pushing a wagon from scratch. Based on my thinking now, this is the most likely scum on my wagon. Also: 562 : LAMIST.

Wingback (replaces Sickofit1138)- I read sickofit a lot like I read kappy- a bit of an immature town player. With the replace in, and change of posting, I am reading this slot very differently. If mathblade is the scum on my wagon, this is the scum going for towncred by opposing the wagon. Of course, by saying this I might just push him to quickhammer me. I honestly hope I am wrong, I hope an actual town player is on my side here, but knowing I might get lynched in the near future I'd rather out this theory now rather than wait.

[Saru]

@Saru -- Really? How the hell do you explain some of Karnos's posts coming from a townie? The defenses seem like stretches to say the least. I am going to reread after work and see if the Wingback part was sleep deprivation but Karnos's post. Explain to me how a townie has some of the posts I have cited. Pretty much anyone not voting Karnos I want an explanation from because that shit doesn't fly. It is the entire context of Karnos's posts that are bad.

Not sure what you mean by me explaining how Karnos' posts come from a townie. I never said at any point that Karnos was a townie. I'm not voting for Karnos because I'm too unsure at the moment(that and because it's now L-1), not because I think he's town. Not sure how you came up with that. On top of that, my issue with you was mainly with you tying people to Karnos as scum if they ended up defending him. I see their defense as more cautionary than anything else. I don't look at it as they're defending their scum partner, but simply that they want to stop what they feel is a mislynch. Especially given that it's only D1, and that just seems too convenient that both scum are defending their scum partner. You can argue that their defense of Karnos is a stretch, sure, but I feel that those accusing Karnos are also kind of stretching because they seem to be going off of pure meta analysis. Or at-least that's how this started.

And I know what you might say, that it's not about meta analysis anymore, it's more about his recent play. And has Karnos' recent play been scummy? Sure. Especially with that really shitty push onto Mecha after the reads list. I even pointed this out. But I also feel that it's a side effect of him scrambling up a defense as fast as he can. I'd be damned if I didn't admit that I've had moments where I was town trying to hastily defend myself from a lynch and freaking out and not thinking about what I'm really trying to say, only causing me to dig a deeper hole for myself, just like it looks like Karnos is doing. On the other hand, I might be giving Karnos the benefit of the doubt.

At this point, I might just wait for a Karnos claim before I choose to do anything further.

P-edit: I have to agree with Karnos here that if Karnos is town, scum are on both sides of the argument here. I've been thinking about that for a while now.

[qubixes]

Kappy - Early on, I took kappy for a null/town who could be easily miss-lynched due to an immature play style. Since than inconsistencies pushed that read down, but I still don't think he is obvious scum. Maybe I am just hanging on to hope, because I sense that defending him is part of what brought a wagon to myself, I don't want to find out I was defending a scum.

Not going into all of your reads, but this one caught my eye. If I read your ISO I get a the following progression of your read:

1-239: slightly scummy
239-359: slightly townie
359-now: slightly scummy

Am I wrong? Also, I don't see you defending kappy really anywhere? I saw you were discussing with Mecha about Kappy, but I didn't figure it was a defense..

@Saru: If you want a Karnos claim, you'll have to state intent to hammer it looks like or wait for someone else to state intent.

[Saru]

I might state intent dependent on what The Bulge and species' replacement have to say about all this. If they choose to view Karnos as town, I will state intent. If they don't, I expect one of them to do it.

[karnos]

Kappy - Early on, I took kappy for a null/town who could be easily miss-lynched due to an immature play style. Since than inconsistencies pushed that read down, but I still don't think he is obvious scum. Maybe I am just hanging on to hope, because I sense that defending him is part of what brought a wagon to myself, I don't want to find out I was defending a scum.

Not going into all of your reads, but this one caught my eye. If I read your ISO I get a the following progression of your read:

1-239: slightly scummy
239-359: slightly townie
359-now: slightly scummy

Am I wrong?

@Saru: If you want a Karnos claim, you'll have to state intent to hammer it looks like or wait for someone else to state intent.

171 "Since my vote isn't doing anything as far as pressure thanks to Mizzy, and I don't expect to see another post from dierfire for awhile, I'll just try this.

VOTE: Kappy

We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?"

I wasn't reading him as scum, or "slightly scummy", I was voting him because of one specific action. This is where MechaGoomba comes out and calls me scum again, because town would *never* vote unless they think they caught a real scum. When kappy returned and changed vote I figured that settled things.

>Also, I don't see you defending kappy really anywhere? I saw you were discussing with Mecha about Kappy, but I didn't figure it was a defense..

I don't know what it was, TBH. Mecha was attacking me for my read of kappy, which was null/town. I figured Mecha thought kappy was scum and wanted me to support his view, and he got upset when I stuck to my points. I don't know anymore. Was it just a pointless filler exchange?

[qubixes]

171 "Since my vote isn't doing anything as far as pressure thanks to Mizzy, and I don't expect to see another post from dierfire for awhile, I'll just try this.

VOTE: Kappy

We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?"

I wasn't reading him as scum, or "slightly scummy", I was voting him because of one specific action. This is where MechaGoomba comes out and calls me scum again, because town would *never* vote unless they think they caught a real scum. When kappy returned and changed vote I figured that settled things.

>Also, I don't see you defending kappy really anywhere? I saw you were discussing with Mecha about Kappy, but I didn't figure it was a defense..

I don't know what it was, TBH. Mecha was attacking me for my read of kappy, which was null/town. I figured Mecha thought kappy was scum and wanted me to support his view, and he got upset when I stuck to my points. I don't know anymore. Was it just a pointless filler exchange?

To me 112, 117, 198 read like you're scum reading him. Wrong?

Ehh. In your reads list you call kappy null/scum. So I thought you were on the opposite sides...

[karnos]

To me 112, 117, 198 read like you're scum reading him. Wrong?

Ehh. In your reads list you call kappy null/scum. So I thought you were on the opposite sides...

No, you are right about my reads list in 359 . Which makes Mecha's comments on my kappy read even more mind boggling to me, as I really felt like he was trying to push me to read kappy as more scummy. But before my reads list, I specifically posted a read of kappy as null/town.

112 - This was a post of mine explaining my unvote. If I thought kappy was obvious scum, I wouldn't have unvoted. Put 1&1 together and you can see that even back then I thought kappy was null at worst.

117 - what? Acting a bit silly and scummy doesn't mean scum. It just meant I didn't have any good leads. Kappy and Sickofit each had a bit of a wagon, and while they might have been deserving of that based on behavior, from experience in open 640 I figured it was a player play style issue, not necessarily indicative of a scum slot.

198 - Personal bias can be real. I was previously giving kappy benefit of the doubt, because I figured his odd voting and posting patterns could be explained by immature play style. When he actually voted me, it came across a lot more scummy, even though in retrospect it fit his previous pattern pretty closely. That carried over into my thinking when I did his full iso in 359, but since then I have adjusted my read of him.

[Masquerade]

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town

EXACTLY MY POINT!

I think we can reasonably assume that voting someone means that you think they're scum!
What's next, "I only said they were acting scummy, not that I thought they were scum; I actually believed they were town acting scummy the whole time"?
"I said I wanted them to be lynched, but I never said that I actually scumread them; I just didn't want them in the game"?

This is blatant semantics and I will have no part of it. TOWN DO NOT VOTE THEIR TOWNREADS. End of discussion.

I agree with you. BUT if I were scum and Karnos was town I would push the exact same thing you are pushing now. Sometimes townies, and especially newer ones, do silly things. They saw something work in another game and want to try it but they have not enough experience to know what they should be looking for.
Now I am starting to change my mind on Karnos because he parroted my post where I defended him without giving me credit and for me that looks like scum saw a good excuse for his thing and uses it for himself, after saying he actually had nothing to add.
Now maybe I would have listened to you earlier if you actually replied to MY post and explained to me how I was seeing things wrong (in your opinion then) but you seem to be stuck in a tunnel rn that is just saying: 'town does not vote other town'
Karnos explained he was townreading Pers in another game, but he flipped scum there. About an hour later he posted his vote for Pers in this game. He got paranoid of his townread because he saw him flip scum while townreading him in another game. The only reason that it sounds bad is because Karnos himself said his vote was fake. Now I don't know why Karnos called his vote fake, because if his story is true, it really wasn't a fake vote.
I will reread Karnos because I'm suddenly starting to doubt things.

@Dierfire: What exactly in my post are you not agreeing with?

@Mathblade: I've seen scum hard-defend their buddies 3 times since I started playing here. I was scum all those 3 times hard-defending my buddies (1 recent, 2 on my main) What I'm saying is: scum generally do not hard-defend. And you have Wingback as Karnos' buddy and me as a potential buddy. No.

(the bit about calling Persivul vs Sickofit TvT doesn't make sense either since Sickofit is my slot).

Btw, I think scum are less likely to get confused about who is who, and who is scum/town. Just some food for thought.

Ye sure but scum can also use that for wifom. So no. Also, I'm a messyhead regardless of my alignment
And I'm with Wingback on this one, it's really weird Mathblade calls Sickofit town and then Wingback scum in the very same post with actually
I need to quote it

qubixes -- Strong Town lean -- Post 175 -- I think qubixes is spot on with the Persuval v Sick discussion. That feels like TvT ripping each other apart. I don't really understand how that got started anyway. I plan on rereading this tonight and seeing how that got started. The first person on the Karnos list according to VC.
*****
Wingback (replaces Sickofit1138) -- I think they are probably scum with Karnos for the reasons above.

That's not confusement, that's not paying attention to your reads because you're faking them.

Ok, fully caught up now and I see I made kind of a huge post.. After I take a break I'll reread Karnos, I'm not ready to have him lynched, give me a few hours to look into this really carefully. I'm also going to read Qubixes, I think I saw something but I need to make sure if it fits. I'll let you know either way.

Btw, Karnos, you don't have me in your readslist.

[GreyICE]

MagnaofIllusion replaces species. Thank you Magna! And with that it looks like we're full up again.

Note: Magna is on weekend VLA, so the prod timer won't start ticking for him until Monday.

[karnos]

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town

EXACTLY MY POINT!

I think we can reasonably assume that voting someone means that you think they're scum!
What's next, "I only said they were acting scummy, not that I thought they were scum; I actually believed they were town acting scummy the whole time"?
"I said I wanted them to be lynched, but I never said that I actually scumread them; I just didn't want them in the game"?

This is blatant semantics and I will have no part of it. TOWN DO NOT VOTE THEIR TOWNREADS. End of discussion.

I agree with you.

...

Btw, Karnos, you don't have me in your readslist.

Readlist: I know, it was intentional. I don't have a strong read on you. Your slot was absent for a long time before you replaced in, so I don't have a strong read for it prior to you either. However, see my read of wingback - the same logic *could* apply here, but you have been more subtle and less confident so I don't think it's nearly as likely that you could be a scum going for town cred.

The above quote from MechaGoomba reminded me strongly of this:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7950694

Oh I see, it was a clever ruse to get me to incriminate myself

You were just lying. Mmmm. Lots of lying, I see.

So Karnos, lets talk about more of your lying. You say I have not scumhunted anyone besides you. You stand behind that?

And also note:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7958364

" "if I think you are scum and I want to see if you do more scummy stuff, I might even lie to you in the thread" Note the words if and might, I wasn't saying that I had lied, and I wasn't even saying I will lie. Depending on how the game goes it might not be a useful tool, as it happens I may never have a reason to post a lie.

I said then, and still feel the same today, is that there are certainly times where lying as town is a great thing to do. Basically I could see exactly where GreyICE's argument was going, and rather than let it drag out and bog down the whole thread, I thought I could just save everyone some time by refuting his final point, which seemed to be that a lying player is a scum player. (That idea certainly didn't work out, but that is beside the point.)"

I hate the out of game meta arguments, but they have been used against me so much and upon reading your response to Mecha's post, I realized just how familiar it all sounded.

Yellow quote was from GreyICE, as scum. Orange quote was from me, town.

Of course if someone wants to argue that meta-game analysis is stupid and meaningless, I'd welcome that. The brunt of the attack on me is stupid meta-game analysis.

[JohnnyFarrar]

People who replace in are so cool. And sexy.

The moderator confirms this man speaks the truth

[Wingback]

What is the point of tying you and Karnos together if Karnos is town? He said that you and Karnos probably share the same alignment, so after Karnos supposedly (according to you) flips town, he wouldn't go after you? I just don't see the point from a scum perspective.

I think Mathblade wanted to present a scumteam theory that appeals to the crowd. Tying me, Karnos, and Masquerade together accomplishes that and places Mathblade squarely in the anti-Karnos camp with plenty of allies. That and if the Karnos mislynch fails or he claims a PR, Mathblade could always pull a "well, let's lynch his buddy Wingback" move.

Wingback (replaces Sickofit1138)- I read sickofit a lot like I read kappy- a bit of an immature town player. With the replace in, and change of posting, I am reading this slot very differently. If mathblade is the scum on my wagon, this is the scum going for towncred by opposing the wagon. Of course, by saying this I might just push him to quickhammer me. I honestly hope I am wrong, I hope an actual town player is on my side here, but knowing I might get lynched in the near future I'd rather out this theory now rather than wait.

Any town player still scumreading Karnos after this is knee-deep in confirmation bias and should re-think their views.

Scum rarely push back against one of the only people defending them when almost everyone else is against them. They'd be ecstatic about having an ally. The fact that Karnos thought my predecessor was town means he doesn't even have to do anything to keep townreading me. But he actively changes his read despite his fear that I may hammer because he's worried that he's going to get lynched and wants it out there that he suspects me.

Do you know why else this makes a ton of sense? In Open 640, Persivul defended a town-Karnos and was scum. I think Karnos is worried of the same thing happening here which is why he scumreads me.

[GreyICE]

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[GreyICE]

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