Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

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VOTE: BBT

Still unhappy you got me lynched last time!

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1- Even scum wouldn't give away monies at random, the only way that it makes any amount of sense is scum trying to give away their monies to a scumpartner with a good hand, to get this perk out ASAP.

I called to break that, as I am quite confident in my hand.

But here's the kicker: for any townie, doing that is betting blind. It's like how I play poker at home, all-in first hand and get ready to lol. I didn't win an online tour for my stepfather by all-ining, I did it by eating a few dumb all-ins with good hands. Luck played its part.
2- That's certainly a scummy move, though my scumread on you is soft at best. I've been pushing it for several other reasons though.
3 - Scum wouldn't, unless they're trying to bank on town being unwilling to risk too much to move the money to one scum so they can get those juicy 1250$ abilities.
PS - Bluffing is useless if you don't have any semblance of cred (like a hand won or two).

And to all of you who say I'm playing bad, that's normal: this is my second game here, and it's months after my first due to a quite tense situation I got into IRL. As for being hasty, I was: one of the primal needs of the human body is sleep, and I was in lack of it. I'll be coming up with a readslist as well as I can, but keep in mind that didn't help me much in my first game so don't be surprised if I only dig myself deeper and you end up lynching me.

I don't understand the bolded part. If you thought scum might do that, then why not wait until the partner shows up and calls? (And take both of their money.)

There will be a showdown, right? That might give us some clues as to what happened. If one of the two shows a very premium hand, it's at least unlikely that they are a team.

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MM has decent analysis, but nothing that can't be faked by scum, and he doesn't actually use it to take very many stances. (By the way, my page 1 reads list was random gut reads and to see how people would react.)

Did you get any reads from it?

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@The MM

I don't think the problem with the readlist is the number of null reads (at least to me). But why put them out that early?

I tried to find out by looking through your earlier games. I only found one, where you replaced in. That is correct?

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@infinity: I would like him to answer my questions first. Haven't looked too deeply into anyone else yet.

Well, MM responded to your list in his read list. What did you think about the response?

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There will be a showdown, right? That might give us some clues as to what happened. If one of the two shows a very premium hand, it's at least unlikely that they are a team.

How do you come to this conclusion – frankly it is the opposite that makes more sense given Pre-Game talk possibilities.

I would think they would try to get more money in the pot. An all-in like Lane did achieves the opposite.

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Even scum wouldn't give away monies at random, the only way that it makes any amount of sense is scum trying to give away their monies to a scumpartner with a good hand, to get this perk out ASAP.

I called to break that, as I am quite confident in my hand.

But here's the kicker: for any townie, doing that is betting blind.[...]

I don't understand the bolded part. If you thought scum might do that, then why not wait until the partner shows up and calls? (And take both of their money.) [...]

I agree that it was a little bit early, but I miscalculated and thought that simply eating one guy's monies would hand me enough to hit a Governor or Vengeful. And frankly, this doubles as a message in retrospect, since I announced my confidence in our hand, it's asking everyone to just go ahead and spare their monies and avoid some humiliation.

I do agree with lane here that it feels like you are making up excuses. One of the underlying reasons I asked about the sentence specifically, is because it suggests that you were trying to prevent a scum plan. That could have been true. But now instead you claim that you were actually thinking about getting enough money to get the most expensive item in the shop. Did you consider that it is quite bad for a townie to have a lot of money/abilities compared to the others? Because scum don't have that particular problem.

This sounds like such, but my bet was short-sighted and I recognize it. I was kinda between "oh look some guy's all-in'ing and I'm sure to eat him let's f*ckin do this" and "some dumbnut's bluffing is killing the gimmick, let's stop this rite now" in my head.
I was sure to only need to take one guy's money because of my own habits when I create such game systems, which is basically me screwing myself over, but whatever. I sure hope Kappy folds, at least this entire thing will have harmed the least people possible and I still get 1k$ until some people decide it's a great idea to lynch me.

UNVOTE: lane, by the way, that's useless to keep it there.

Why was it short-sighted according to you? Because you didn't wait for the potential scum partner to show up? Or because you miscalculated the shop prizes? Or both?

Also, why is it useless to keep your vote there? He is the only NULL (+scum) read in you read list. Did it change?

I will wait for the hands to be revealed, but I feel like you are playing from a scum perspective. The admissions of trying to look town, being rash with your bets don't make me feel better either.

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I would think they would try to get more money in the pot. An all-in like Lane did achieves the opposite.

I disagree. Consolidating two (or more, but that doesn’t look like it is happening) players full starting $500 plus the remaining antes plus any other stray bets is most likely to get the most money into one player’s hands after a single round.

Right now the pot is $1,170. It could even rise to over $1,500 if kappy calls.

To get more money into the post than the $1,170 with the initial $55 in ante requires every player to bet at at a minimum just over $101 per hand. Given the voting pattern we know happened (Quib and Something Smart both folded to a simply $50 bet and Pers folded to a $100 bet) it is very unlikely a non-All-in play generates more money than what happened with Lane’s All-in.

This being said – does this change your opinion?

They could just keep raising (small), right? So 50, 100, 150, 200, etc. Then all-in when almost everyone is out of the pot. Though to be fair, it would look rather suspicious. I could see going all-in quickly to get it over with as a possible scum plan. It also depends on what the scum team deems suspicious. If the scum team didn't care at all what is suspicious, they could raise to 490 and not show their hands that way... But obviously that would be way too suspicious.

At the moment I don't think lane and MM are team mates with their interaction outside the poker mini-game. And if they're not, I think lane is more likely than not town (if he has the bad hand he says he has), because I don't think scum would take that big of a risk with a bad hand, unless they have a partner with a very strong hand to back it up.

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VOTE: MM

Care to explain?

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Fold

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@lane: Yes, I agree with the fact that his quick call isn't scummy, but his productivity in creating reasons is.

I don't agree with Infity's assessment that he is noobtown, because he isn't trying to avoid engagements. I mean, he hasn't avoided them, but on the other hand it was also hard to avoid given the amount of pressure that was exerted on him, i.e. it's mainly defense (even his read list).

I think it's possible he is nervous noobtown, but I'm not convinced yet. Either way, I feel like I have drilled the point enough, and I should start rereading (him and others).

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Your votes for me basically say I'm transparent scum, guys; which would mean I'm bad. I'm not.

I am [a noobie]. This is my second game with people who actually know how to play. What makes you say I'm not?

Choose? Why draw the newbie card, when you consider yourself at least not bad?

VOTE: The MM

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@MoI: Ref: 203

Why do you think MM is less likely to be scum here given the hand? He would have a no-brainer regardless of his alignment? You also said that a strong hand by MM would make it more likely that lane and MM are a team. Why did you (seemingly) abandon this line of thinking?

Also, I think you underrepresented the arguments against MM, so it looks weaker than it is. Did you do that on purpose? What is your read on MM?

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If I was scum and had day talk... And I planned a scum money dump, how do you think that would actually go? What would be the actual plan?

First of all I wouldn't do the plan if we didn't have better than a pair. And I would've been aware of jokers so a pair doesn't mean much. You can figure this out by saying I have a bad, meh, good, very good, probably unbeatable hand.

2 options to start. Either the one with the good hand goes all in, and the shit hand calls. Or the bad hand goes all in and the good hand calls.

To me, it makes sense for the good hand to go all in first. Then if town calls and there's a chance they have a better hand, the bad hand can save its money. That obviously didn't happen.

So now if the bad hand goes all in, and even if a town calls, the good hand would still go all in, because it would've been decided its a very good hand that probably wouldn't get beat.

Considering there was only one call, the only option here is me and mm.

That's no way we would do that plan unless we were very confident we wouldn't be throwing money away. Cause that'd be dumber than town going all in on a bluff.

I think there is one big problem with a good hand going all-in first. The hands are shown and calling all-in with a bad hand is very suspicious.

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@Magna:

In my opinion these are the most important points of the MM case. Why do you think my hop was suspect?

[Plan about scum giving each other money.] I called

to

break that [..]

Here he basically tells us that he tried to do something good for town by calling, through breaking scum's plan. The word "to" is the important bit, if he said "I called and I broke that" for example, it would be a different thing. His response wasn't very convincing, giving all sorts of reasons why he called, and saying that I/we are reading too much into it. It just seems to me he tried to look like a white knight fighting for the good of town.

The bad part of MM’s full readslist is not that it is not strong. I don’t expect that on Page 4. Why it may be an example of scum play is it appeared right after MM had drawn a couple votes (Infinity and Lane) and has the feel of “Have to post content to look Town before a wagon develops”.

That was the plan in a shellnut, though you put it to parody levels. But wanting to look as Town as possible is not limited to scum.

Admitting to try and look town because of pressure. Admitting it doesn't really make it better in my opinion.

And to all of you who say I'm playing bad, that's normal: this is my second game here, and it's months after my first due to a quite tense situation I got into IRL. As for being hasty, I was: one of the primal needs of the human body is sleep, and I was in lack of it. I'll be coming up with a readslist as well as I can, but keep in mind that didn't help me much in my first game so don't be surprised if I only dig myself deeper and you end up lynching me.

Your votes for me basically say I'm transparent scum, guys; which would mean I'm bad. I'm not.
My reads are null with very soft leans in case you can read and spot them.

In the first quote he tells people to keep in mind that he might be playing bad, because it is only his second game etc. So, he is pre-emptively defending himself with the newbie/being bad card. Then in the second quote he says that he wouldn't be so bad and transparent as scum. I think he's using both sides of the argument here. Below I have added the response to my poking:

Because I am a newbie. But you're confusing "newbie" with "bad. I'm bad only relatively to you, maybe, because I'm not good at reading people.

@MM: I can't really follow the logic. [Mafia scum Pro's ---- you ------ Mafia scum newbies ------ everyone else] Like that from good to bad?

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@Persivul: I already folded

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This is in my opinion you stretching to classify something as scummy. The whole notion of “to” being a huge difference maker between scum and Town motivation is pretty poorly thought out given that written English can convey the same notion in many different ways. I’d classify the whole point as nitpicking looking for reasons as opposed to actually looking for scum intent.

Since the last bit of your post is basically a LAMIST attack – what do you think of Red Coyote’s similar “I don’t make mistakes so you should see me as Town” posting?

I'm not a native English speaker, so I could be wrong there. It seemed others had the same interpretation as well though. Either way, if he had just cleared it up at that point that would be fine in my opinion. But it kind of swerved all over the place for reasons why he called.

The bit you quote is about looking up the prices of the abilities, right? I agree that it looks a bit weird, i.e. could be scummy. I thought your argument at the start was stretching it quite a bit, and RC's defenses looked sound to me. The part about the meta between you was really weird and I don't know what to make of it. I haven't caught up yet though.

Admitting to try and look town because of pressure. Admitting it doesn't really make it better in my opinion.

Also very weak as Town also try to look Town also. You are taking something that is at worst a Null statement and only prescribing scum intent to it. Note that I commented on his initial post and this is his response which I thought was pretty reasonable Town.

Not sure what you mean with "at worst Null"? You think it's either towny or null? In my opinion scum are more motivated to put out a readlist like that to look like town. Town look town by trying to scumhunt. Scum don't want to do that (obviously), so they have to resort to things that look towny but don't further the town's goals. I mean, he wasn't in immediate danger of getting lynched at all. If I remember correctly you were also suspicious initially because of the readlist, so it looks like you also didn't like it either. You liked his response, I didn't.

Bad and scummy are not synonymous. Frankly I can point to at least one other player in this thread whose shtick is to play purposefully bad for whatever reason. That doesn’t mean they are always scum. Which is unfortunate because I want to lynch said player every time for being a worthless pile of junk. As to your “he’s wanting both sides of the coin” – meh … I don’t find that compelling. If he was trying for Newbie shield while simultaneously attacking someone else for trying to claim Newbie status I would find that suspect. This … not so much.

Not sure why you're saying bad != scummy? I never claimed it to be. I'm not saying MM is playing badly.

So if these are the tentpoles of your case I can’t say that I find it vote-worthy.

If you think MM is scum who is his partner? Is Lane also scum?

So you don't find the case compelling. That's fine. And yes, he could be town and say these things. You are right about that. Still think you undersold the case though. At the moment I don't think Lane is partnered with MM. I also think it would be a little bold of you to defend a scum buddy like that, but not impossible. Not really looking for buddies at the moment. I think it's a little too early for that.

I should probably catch up, and then cast my vote again (or not).

UNVOTE: The MM

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fold

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Unfortunately, I don't have enough time for this game. Sorry .

@mod: requesting replacement

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GG.

@infinity: Sorry for replacing out, but it looks like you had good fun with my replacement.

Bussing/distancing seems like a real thing on this site. I haven't been in a game yet where scum weren't trying to throw each other under the bus...

Bit sad to see the town players not really having a great time.