Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[lane0168]

@mod, after this hand concludes id like to rebuy-in please, thank you. As payment I'll be hated

[The MM]

Even scum wouldn't give away monies at random, the only way that it makes any amount of sense is scum trying to give away their monies to a scumpartner with a good hand, to get this perk out ASAP.

I called to break that, as I am quite confident in my hand.

But here's the kicker: for any townie, doing that is betting blind.[...]

I don't understand the bolded part. If you thought scum might do that, then why not wait until the partner shows up and calls? (And take both of their money.) [...]

I agree that it was a little bit early, but I miscalculated and thought that simply eating one guy's monies would hand me enough to hit a Governor or Vengeful. And frankly, this doubles as a message in retrospect, since I announced my confidence in our hand, it's asking everyone to just go ahead and spare their monies and avoid some humiliation.

@the mm. How long do you wait to go full gung-ho with your reads? Why are you concerned about how we will act of you go full gung-ho with your reads?
This could be a case of tunneling on my part, but I really don't like the mm. Unless everything they say is just fitting my preconceived notion. Will consider that
There was too much stuff in rvs that was weird to even comment on infinities read list. Two self votes. Moi changing rvs to bandwagon. Infinity having self at bottom. Wasn't going to get to decipher anything from any of that.

- How long do I wait..? Eternity. Going gung-ho is a bad idea. Who is going to follow if I just say "X is scum"? Noone. So I never follow just gut feeling, or just reason; so usually by a bunch of pages I have reads, but I try to be as soft as possible on them during RVS and immediately after.
- "everything

they

say" I'm a he, thank you. Thought it was clear.

@The MM
- I don't think the problem with the readlist is the number of null reads (at least to me). But why put them out that early?
- I tried to find out by looking through your earlier games. I only found one, where you replaced in. That is correct?

The clearer my reads are to the rest of the town, the better they understand me.
I only participated in one earlier game, in which I replaced in, you're right. Entered pre-game, was replaced out on day 4 due to RL stuff.

Was NAI, he seemed to read too much into it

Can I ask what NAI means? The wiki points me to a random player. (Is it "Not An Issue" or whatever?)

[Something_Smart]

NAI = non-alignment-indicative

[The MM]

NAI = non-alignment-indicative

Tanks.
Well, I'm gonna take a while to get that one down.

---

Back to quoting and answering.

RE: lane's 78
I can see the thought process here more clearly than I can see the scumlane argument.
The scumlane conclusion argues that lane knowingly went all in in an attempt to consolidate funds to the scum team. Reasonable, but it requires that lane came up with a devious and clever strategy to act on immediately. He would necessarily have gotten attention for this bet, which the scumteam had to know. Were they betting (heh) that we would ultimately ignore it? I just think it sounds too complex. It's reasonable, but I don't think it's likely.
Now, lane proposes an interesting counterargument. The MM suggested that the above scumlane argument holds water. He wasn't the original one to propose it, but he is a follower. There's a caveat though. MM called lane's bet. Ergo, what The MM is criticizing lane for he just did himself.
Then again, perhaps MM is that sure that lane is scum that he's willing to gamble all his money in an effort to stop lane from winning. On the other hand, if his hand is weak, he's giving the scum a sizable pot now...
The question everyone has to ask themselves, if you were townMM, would you have called scumlane? If so, why didn't you? If not, why would townMM do this?
---

I'll be coming up with a readslist as well as I can, but keep in mind that didn't help me much in my first game so don't be surprised if I only dig myself deeper and you end up lynching me.

Playing the newbie card is unnecessary and will detract from your status in my eyes, not improve it.
---

I'm undecided between thinking this was a scummy move to pass money to scum, or really just a mindless bluff, but I'd think lane's better than that.

Why would you assume the former if you don't know him, however?
I also get a sense that you are trying to have it both ways. These two statements appear to contradict somewhat:

I'd think lane's better than [making a mindless bluff].

I'm convinced [lane] plays dumb

---

It shouldn't matter for today. If Lane loses as he says he will, then it would be the winner we would want to lynch. I'm kind of kicking myself for mentioning the possibility when I did. It might have been more informative to let the hand play out before saying anything.

Yeah, you are definitely my top townread right now.
VOTE: The MM, L-2.

1- I may have done what I criticized lane for, but I'm sure I got this pot in the bag. Securing the money away from the scum's the name of the game, since even one scum purchasing a vengeful or governor day is time lost for town. I'm not sure baiting the scum was even possible, but right now I agree that this move makes me look scummy -- that is, if I'm lane's partner but other accusations don't hold water as far as bets go.
2- Your pick. If you're offensive to newbies though, you'll be hated.
3- "playing dumb" can also mean "making dumb plays", mixed messages and far-fetched interpretations hurrah! Basically if lane wins over my hand I just don't wanna sleep on lane by underestimating him, but I still think that was a bad play.
4- Are you lynching me for winning at poker, man?

---

Posting for my benefit for later reference – FA and Pers have both made “13 player oops” slips.

That struck me.

The bad part of MM’s full readslist is not that it is not strong. I don’t expect that on Page 4. Why it may be an example of scum play is it appeared right after MM had drawn a couple votes (Infinity and Lane) and has the feel of “Have to post content to look Town before a wagon develops”.

That was the plan in a shellnut, though you put it to parody levels. But wanting to look as Town as possible is not limited to scum.

Otherwise it could just be someone who tried to bluff and got called. You guys obviously know nothing about poker. People bluff. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. I think it's obvious you guys know nothing about poker to think that there would obviously be a call on all in first hand. You're trying to make it scummy when it isn't.

I think Lane’s response to the pressure has been Null/Reasonable but this post pushes my gut.
Lane made what is the equivalent of Newb101 Poker Bad Play. Going effectively All-In the first hand with what he is claiming is a bad hand is the kind of thing you see from complete novice players. And yet his response is to basically ridicule everyone who suspects him as not understanding poker.

I need to push this point as I do not understand this attitude of lane towards callouts. This bluff was hasty.

What idea? The chip-dumping theory? Just because I'm confident in my hand doesn't mean I'm scum, otherwise that would mean I was just collecting lane's monies. Besides, lane claimed to have done that with no coordination, so what do you think are the odds of the guy with the nuts be town? Just down to luck, out of the 10 remaning, odds are 2 or 3 are scum, making it like 75% chance I'm town.

For someone who decried players taking things at face value there is an awful lot you are expecting everyone to just take at face value in this response for it to be reasonable.

I agree this is arrogant of me to say that, but when you take things at face value, I decided that if that was how you played then perhaps I should lay it down in terms that speak to you.

It is also possible that MM has a good 5 card draw hand and he pre-empted scum’s plan as Town.

Actually MM would look a lot better if he had simply said he has a great hand and so he called. Claiming he was pre-empting scum's plan is bad. As has been already noted, if here were really thinking at that level, he would have waited for scum to call before going in himself.

I agree that I jumped in a bit too early, which drew all sorts of non-benefices.

Hope I've cleared some smoke.

[lane0168]

How did you miscalculate to think that taking my money only would give you enough? What were your calculations?

[The MM]

I just made the mistake of thinking the most expensive abilities were prized at 1000 (instead of 1250) and thus I'd only need to eat your monies to get the best abilities in the game. Does that answer your question?

[Alchemist21]

Still waitin' for a good hand.

♠ ♡ DAY 1 VOTECOUNT ♢ ♣

MM(3):

lane, Persivul, Red Coyote

Something Smart(2):

Something Smart, BBT

Red Coytoe(2):

Infinity, Magna

BBT:

qubixes

lane:

The MM

Not Voting(2):

Kappy, FA_Q2

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

The current pot is $1170

The amount to call is $495

Still in the hand: Kappy, lane, MM

Kappy must submit an action.

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:
Ante
Magna bets $25
MM raises to $50
qubixes folds
something smart folds
Infinity raises to $100
persivul folds
lane raises to $495
BBT folds
MM calls
Magna folds
RC folds
Infinity folds
FA folds

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-05 12:30:00)

Kappy still has not confirmed or posted in this thread. After checking his posts it seems he is on V/LA from the 20th - 24th. I will not prod or force replace him before the 24th, however if he fails to act by tomorrow at 8:27 PM EST I will force a forfeit of his hand.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: MM

[Something_Smart]

Oh yeah lol I keep forgetting to get rid of that self vote.
UNVOTE:

[lane0168]

I just made the mistake of thinking the most expensive abilities were prized at 1000 (instead of 1250) and thus I'd only need to eat your monies to get the best abilities in the game. Does that answer your question?

Yes, but it feels like you're just trying to come up with reasons for why you didn't wait for my partner to call if that's what you were really thinking when you called me. You wanted to put a stop to it, and you thought 1000 would be enough for the most expensive abilities. Where did you come up with 1000 being the most expensive abilities? Did you never actually look at the abilities in the first place? Because if not, I'm having trouble figuring out why you'd think 1000 was for the most expensive ones. And if you had looked at them, I'm having trouble figuring out why you'd think 1000 was the most expensive ones?

Either you didn't look at them, and in that case you would have no idea or reason to believe abilities are different prices, so that's not the case.

Or you did look at them, and would then see the prices. And see they are different prices for different abilities. Which must be the case. So how do you come up with 1000 being the most expensive abilities?

Are you just making up excuses now?

[Infinity 324]

Then you would just hammer if people refused to switch, you wouldn't really lose anything.

S_S says that we should force the scummy players off of a wagon. The only way to "force" players off would be to vote them. Therefore, it's your contention that you could dismantle the entire wagon on one player and move it to another player? You don't think there would be any issues in doing that?

This is just me being dumb, I thought if someone stated intent to hammer on the person about to the lynched then somehow that would motivate the scummier players to get off the wagon and let townier players on. Though, some may agree if it meant their top scumread(s) got off the wagon as well.

Infinity, is there something I'm supposed to respond to in 101? You voting me in that post seems random.

At first I voted you because you were my most active null read and I wanted to see your response, but this comes off as quite forced, as scum often want specific reason they are being scumread so they can defend themselves. I like my vote where it is.

What did you think about RC's post in terms of his alignment?

You can read below but this bring up two questions –

1. Why did you specifically ask me?
2. You post before this seems to not be drawing the same read I am. Why is that? I see your later vote but that vote is basically naked and nothing in your ISO says “I suspect RC” to my eyes.

1. No particular reason, was just to get discussion going and I wanted another opinion on the post
2. See above, the only thing that read town to me about his posts was the comment on lane that I agreed with, but I definitely agree that his posts have gotten scummier since then.

Not many people responded to my random reads list, but s_s responded in a towny way.

Please elaborate on what exactly was his Townie reaction.

It felt like a natural response, that's it

I like MoI's push on RC, it might be a little confirmation biased but I have a growing gut scumread on RC and MoI is doing a good job of putting a finger on why that is. RC seems too careful, and I didn't like how in his first post the analysis I liked seemed to imply lane-town but when MoI questions him on it RC says "lane could be town, but he could also be scum". It might be him backtracking when MoI called out his original defense of lane, and it also could be leaving open the possibility of pushing a lane lynch in the future.

@RC, do you have a read on lane now?

s_s - town: He seems to be genuinely trying to figure stuff out.

I would like elaboration on this, it sounds rather generic.

I liked your theory in 16. Theory discussion can be used as an excuse to avoid read discussion, but it didn't really feel like you were doing that given your scumhunt-y 45. You can call it a gut read, I guess.

The analysis in 120 also seems pretty hard to fake, so you're a pretty solid townread atm.

MM continues to look like newbtown.

[The MM]

I just made the mistake of thinking the most expensive abilities were prized at 1000 (instead of 1250) and thus I'd only need to eat your monies to get the best abilities in the game. Does that answer your question?

Yes, but it feels like you're just trying to come up with reasons for why you didn't wait for my partner to call if that's what you were really thinking when you called me. You wanted to put a stop to it, and you thought 1000 would be enough for the most expensive abilities. Where did you come up with 1000 being the most expensive abilities? Did you never actually look at the abilities in the first place? Because if not, I'm having trouble figuring out why you'd think 1000 was for the most expensive ones. And if you had looked at them, I'm having trouble figuring out why you'd think 1000 was the most expensive ones?

Either you didn't look at them, and in that case you would have no idea or reason to believe abilities are different prices, so that's not the case.

Or you did look at them, and would then see the prices. And see they are different prices for different abilities. Which must be the case. So how do you come up with 1000 being the most expensive abilities?

Are you just making up excuses now?

This sounds like such, but my bet was short-sighted and I recognize it. I was kinda between "oh look some guy's all-in'ing and I'm sure to eat him let's f*ckin do this" and "some dumbnut's bluffing is killing the gimmick, let's stop this rite now" in my head.
I was sure to only need to take one guy's money because of my own habits when I create such game systems, which is basically me screwing myself over, but whatever. I sure hope Kappy folds, at least this entire thing will have harmed the least people possible and I still get 1k$ until some people decide it's a great idea to lynch me.

UNVOTE: lane, by the way, that's useless to keep it there.

[Persivul]

Red Coytoe(2)

mod: if you're going to screw up his name, I suggest making it Red Cameltoe

[RedCoyote]

Yet no movement to actually vote me. Or anyone since Red specifically avoided voting in his first post.

I'm already voting, actually. Did you see the Vote Count?

[qubixes]

Even scum wouldn't give away monies at random, the only way that it makes any amount of sense is scum trying to give away their monies to a scumpartner with a good hand, to get this perk out ASAP.

I called to break that, as I am quite confident in my hand.

But here's the kicker: for any townie, doing that is betting blind.[...]

I don't understand the bolded part. If you thought scum might do that, then why not wait until the partner shows up and calls? (And take both of their money.) [...]

I agree that it was a little bit early, but I miscalculated and thought that simply eating one guy's monies would hand me enough to hit a Governor or Vengeful. And frankly, this doubles as a message in retrospect, since I announced my confidence in our hand, it's asking everyone to just go ahead and spare their monies and avoid some humiliation.

I do agree with lane here that it feels like you are making up excuses. One of the underlying reasons I asked about the sentence specifically, is because it suggests that you were trying to prevent a scum plan. That could have been true. But now instead you claim that you were actually thinking about getting enough money to get the most expensive item in the shop. Did you consider that it is quite bad for a townie to have a lot of money/abilities compared to the others? Because scum don't have that particular problem.

This sounds like such, but my bet was short-sighted and I recognize it. I was kinda between "oh look some guy's all-in'ing and I'm sure to eat him let's f*ckin do this" and "some dumbnut's bluffing is killing the gimmick, let's stop this rite now" in my head.
I was sure to only need to take one guy's money because of my own habits when I create such game systems, which is basically me screwing myself over, but whatever. I sure hope Kappy folds, at least this entire thing will have harmed the least people possible and I still get 1k$ until some people decide it's a great idea to lynch me.

UNVOTE: lane, by the way, that's useless to keep it there.

Why was it short-sighted according to you? Because you didn't wait for the potential scum partner to show up? Or because you miscalculated the shop prizes? Or both?

Also, why is it useless to keep your vote there? He is the only NULL (+scum) read in you read list. Did it change?

I will wait for the hands to be revealed, but I feel like you are playing from a scum perspective. The admissions of trying to look town, being rash with your bets don't make me feel better either.

[qubixes]

I would think they would try to get more money in the pot. An all-in like Lane did achieves the opposite.

I disagree. Consolidating two (or more, but that doesn’t look like it is happening) players full starting $500 plus the remaining antes plus any other stray bets is most likely to get the most money into one player’s hands after a single round.

Right now the pot is $1,170. It could even rise to over $1,500 if kappy calls.

To get more money into the post than the $1,170 with the initial $55 in ante requires every player to bet at at a minimum just over $101 per hand. Given the voting pattern we know happened (Quib and Something Smart both folded to a simply $50 bet and Pers folded to a $100 bet) it is very unlikely a non-All-in play generates more money than what happened with Lane’s All-in.

This being said – does this change your opinion?

They could just keep raising (small), right? So 50, 100, 150, 200, etc. Then all-in when almost everyone is out of the pot. Though to be fair, it would look rather suspicious. I could see going all-in quickly to get it over with as a possible scum plan. It also depends on what the scum team deems suspicious. If the scum team didn't care at all what is suspicious, they could raise to 490 and not show their hands that way... But obviously that would be way too suspicious.

At the moment I don't think lane and MM are team mates with their interaction outside the poker mini-game. And if they're not, I think lane is more likely than not town (if he has the bad hand he says he has), because I don't think scum would take that big of a risk with a bad hand, unless they have a partner with a very strong hand to back it up.

[qubixes]

VOTE: MM

Care to explain?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Nope

[lane0168]

Nope

Why not?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Nothing to explain.

[lane0168]

Well I don't know if you've read the game or not, but we're out of rvs at this point.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Indeed we are.

[lane0168]

Oh so you know. Now you're just confusing me. If you knew that you must have reason for the vote. And yet you said there's nothing to explain. So which is it? Do you have reasons? Cause that would be what needs explaining. Or do you not have reasons, in that case, like I said, we are out of rvs

[Persivul]

Lol no draw?! And no claiming cards?!

Raise $500

VOTE: rc

mod: it's been 48 hours since the all in. Does this mean hands of people who haven't acted are automatically folded?

Per the rules:

-Any player who has not chosen an action by deadline or within 48 hours after the last action was made will forfeit their hand.

While this is a little vague I think my interpretation is probably what was meant, and it's best for the game. Otherwise people could space out folds so that there's never a second hand.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Oh so you know. Now you're just confusing me. If you knew that you must have reason for the vote. And yet you said there's nothing to explain. So which is it? Do you have reasons? Cause that would be what needs explaining. Or do you not have reasons, in that case, like I said, we are out of rvs

It's not hard to confuse you is it?