be scum," as in "it isn't possible for him not to be scum," but the only way you could possibly know that is if the other scum is you. And later you unvote him, what's up with that?
Because a townie couldn't possibly know whether or not you are town. Vaxkiller said he knows you are scum, and if Vaxkiller is town, how could he possibly know that for sure?
Because a townie couldn't possibly know whether or not you are town. Vaxkiller said he knows you are scum, and if Vaxkiller is town, how could he possibly know that for sure?
He doesn't. He is just very confident, but he lost confidence soon after later posts.
In post 127, Vaxkiller wrote:Just skimmed through and re-reading but I have to post my first impressions of RyanK. I wonder if RyanK could feel the cold chill spread across his bones as I read through his posts knowing that someone re-reading everything all at once would find out....
Ryan's post count is just through the roof, and he seems to be nitpicking really early... that is how I play scum, just trying to sew dissension in the ranks. He has to be scum.
In post 227, RyanK wrote:He doesn't. He is just very confident, but he lost confidence soon after later posts.
Read the post you just quoted yourself. Notice the "
has to
be scum" bit at the end? He clearly stated that he know you are scum.
He is saying that it coinsides so much with me that he believes I'm a scum for sure, but he doesn't know because I'm a townie.
But for him to believe that you are scum for sure, he would have to have some sort of evidence that eliminates every single possibility of you being town. The only piece of evidence that could possibly fit that bill, would be a pm from host telling him exactly who is town and who is scum.
It is something like saying "it has to be him" and point to a really naughty boy when one sees a scribble on a wall. The accuser doesn't know the school boy did it, but still says "it has to be him".
In post 231, RyanK wrote:That statement is also used by people who are over confident, so often, I don't find it strange.
That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by town, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
In post 227, RyanK wrote:He doesn't. He is just very confident, but he lost confidence soon after later posts.
Read the post you just quoted yourself. Notice the "
has to
be scum" bit at the end? He clearly stated that he know you are scum.
He is saying that it coinsides so much with me that he believes I'm a scum for sure, but he doesn't know because I'm a townie.
But for him to believe that you are scum for sure, he would have to have some sort of evidence that eliminates every single possibility of you being town. The only piece of evidence that could possibly fit that bill, would be a pm from host telling him exactly who is town and who is scum.
Well, he says he believes I'm scum for sure simply because that is exactly like his scum play. Anyway, even if he really does know, why is he debunked later?
In post 231, RyanK wrote:That statement is also used by people who are over confident, so often, I don't find it strange.
That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by town, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
I'm not saying that this is often used by town. I'm saying that most people would use that phrase when he's overconfident. Have you never heard people use it before?
In post 233, RyanK wrote:The accuser doesn't know the school boy did it, but still says "it has to be him".
This example can easily be adequately explained by the accuser in this example just being a trigger-happy moron jumping to conclusions. Vaxkiller hasn't really been acting all that moronic in this game, so that explanation is a lot harder to apply to him than it is to the example accuser, making this a false equivalence.
In post 231, RyanK wrote:That statement is also used by people who are over confident, so often, I don't find it strange.
That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by town, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
I'm not saying that this is often used by town. I'm saying that most people would use that phrase when he's overconfident. Have you never heard people use it before?
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
In post 231, RyanK wrote:That statement is also used by people who are over confident, so often, I don't find it strange.
That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by town, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
I'm not saying that this is often used by town. I'm saying that most people would use that phrase when he's overconfident. Have you never heard people use it before?
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by scum, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
In post 239, RyanK wrote:That's just absurd. Presenting what should be nothing but an educated guess as if it were a fact is not something town would ever do. It is something that scum does from time to time, hoverer, as they actually have some facts available from the start. You're stating that this is something that is said often by scum, but do you have any statistics to back up that claim?
I fail to see your point here. Could you explain in your own words instead of copy-pasting something I wrote?
In post 239, RyanK wrote:...
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
How is this supposed to be true? It had already been such a long time since the game began that he would have had some facts by then. It's not even the begining of the game.
In post 239, RyanK wrote:...
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
How is this supposed to be true? It had already been such a long time since the game began that he would have had some facts by then. It's not even the begining of the game.
Which would mean that the scum isn't the only one who knows, but the townies can guess. Guesses aren't always accurate, however.
In post 239, RyanK wrote:...
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
How is this supposed to be true? It had already been such a long time since the game began that he would have had some facts by then. It's not even the begining of the game.
In Matrix6, from the perspective of a townie, the probability of any other player being scum is 25%, and probability of being scum is 75%. While these numbers fluctuate for different players as the game goes on, they usually don't increase or decrease by more than 15% for any player on the first day, as unless that player does something incredibly stupid, there is very little to go by. His reads at that point couldn't possibly make you seem more likely to be scum than town, and yet he let it slip that you are 100% likely to be scum from his point of view.
In post 239, RyanK wrote:...
Yes, and being too confident in a vote is a very strong scumtell, as the mafia would always know the alignment of those they vote for.
How is this supposed to be true? It had already been such a long time since the game began that he would have had some facts by then. It's not even the begining of the game.
In Matrix6, from the perspective of a townie, the probability of any other player being scum is 25%, and probability of being scum is 75%. While these numbers fluctuate for different players as the game goes on, they usually don't increase or decrease by more than 15% for any player on the first day, as unless that player does something incredibly stupid, there is very little to go by. His reads at that point couldn't possibly make you seem more likely to be scum than town, and yet he let it slip that you are 100% likely to be scum from his point of view.
In post 243, RyanK wrote:Which would mean that the scum isn't the only one who knows, but the townies can guess. Guesses aren't always accurate, however.
Guesses are indeed not always accurate. In fact, they are so inaccurate that mafia doesn't get lynched all that much more often d1 than they would if a completely random player was lynched. Vaxkiller, however, isn't even guessing, as he states that you "
In post 245, RyanK wrote:And how is one suppose to determine a slip?
If one has information that could not have possibly be obtained if they were town, such as stating that they have any idea about who is town and who is mafia on the first day beyond a somewhat educated guess, then that's an obvious slip.
In post 246, 0x40 wrote:...
Guesses are indeed not always accurate. In fact, they are so inaccurate that mafia doesn't get lynched all that much more often d1 than they would if a completely random player was lynched. Vaxkiller, however, isn't even guessing, as he states that you "
In post 246, 0x40 wrote:...
Guesses are indeed not always accurate. In fact, they are so inaccurate that mafia doesn't get lynched all that much more often d1 than they would if a completely random player was lynched. Vaxkiller, however, isn't even guessing, as he states that you "
have to
be scum."
Is that considered a slip?
Stating that you have information that you couldn't possibly have obtained as town, like "x person is alignment y" is very much a slip, yes.
