Mini 1812 | Quolls | Endgame

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 2.01 Western Quoll

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Lynching

With 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to lynch.

A Simple Plan

(L-5): Shadow_Step

MURDERCAT

(L-5): The_Jester

Nachomamma8

(L-5): All In

Not Voting

(8):

All In,

A Simple Plan, Bellaphant, dwlee99, Killthestory, MURDERCAT, Nachomamma8, Raskolnikov,

Shadow_Step, The_Jester,

Vedith

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(expired on 2016-08-07 14:00:00)

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[MURDERCAT]

I need to reread hiplop but I can pretty much promise you he was on scum.

[All In]

So you think Nacho would normally night kill 1 person suspecting him?
Do you think that Hiplop was going to have enough of an impact today instead of yetserday to lynch Nacho?

I think hiplop is someone who doesn't let go when he thinks you're scum. So leaving him alive when he's on to you is the worst thing you can do.
Whether or not he would have enough impact is another story, but he surely has the capability to pull it off.

[All In]

I need to reread hiplop but I can pretty much promise you he was on scum.

this so much

[Shadow_step]

Or they suspected that he was a PR.(hiplop)

I prefer an ASP lynch today.

[Shadow_step]

Quickly skimmed through Hiplop's iso.
He was mainly scum reading Asp and Nacho.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: ASP

Taking the 'non-confrontational' spots on the KTS and now Dragon Wagons, coupled with this post here in which it's clearly specified that I would be the ideal lynch and does nothing else but offer hypotheticals; if I'm the top scumread, vote me.

Criticises wagon spot as opposed to the votes themselves and why/how this is scummy. Wagon position itself without context is shallow; in every wagon there are "non-confrontational spots' and on a basic level pointing this out without saying why/how it's bad isn't saying anything. No judgement on why my wagon position is bad vs people in the same "wagon spots" on other wagons; or why sheeping or even being "non-confrontational" is necessarily bad.

The implication is he's casting doubt on me for being non-confrontational with wagon positioning and not voting him.
But this ignores
1. ASP wagon's being tried but not taking off, half the playerbase opposed. On top of ASP's own inactivity and the game in general stalling the value of sticking there on a lost cause vs trying elsewhere.
2. Deadline, the scramble to actually get something going; voting ASP at that point is pure vanity (as it probably wasn't happening) and doesn't affect the day as opposed to consolidating on a lynch.
3. That there ever is a reason for anyone to vote lesser scumreads or even nulls.
In other words it's shallow thinking because it's ignoring obvious problems with why someone wouldn't always vote their top scumread for the entirety of a day. No reason to believe he considered the flipside or genuinely thought things through.
Maybe (2) or (3) aren't that obvious when coming in inactive but

as a lurker slot coming in 24h to deadline with people consolidating and saying "if I'm the top scumread, vote me" is disingenuous.

Keep in mind that the moment Nacho starts producing, Rask is off the wagon to serve as a sheep (457) to Murder, who curiously enough had also been the first vote on Nacho.

This is brought up to support the above but doesn't really follow since nacho exchange absolutely was "confrontational" (as was the asp wagon before he lurked through the entire day) and ASP doesn't say anything about how/why leaving the nacho wagon for KTS is a bad thing or scummy.
Like no comment on the stance or unvote itself being bad or good? If you scumread this shouldn't you be thinking "oh that's a fake read on nacho and fake unvote" but it's like the emphasis is purely on timing rather than looking at the read or interaction itself. I think this approach comes from someone picking me to scumread and working backwards; if you're actually reading that exchange naturally and going through the content your mind makes some conclusions there, it doesn't jump to the vc significance without in any way judging the content and at least making a basic statement on the read or the nacho wagon.

Faint suggestion of something bad being from joining murder's wagons (which are actually most of the wagons in the game) but nothing really said there.

Also worthy of note, Rask has been on every leading wagon (every one to at some point be the closest to a lynch via the VC) since it was Rask on Page 7.

If this was the original point and why he has a problem with me his case would make more sense (I don't like rask because he wagons everything) but this is like an afterthought thrown in. I mean this could have been a half decent argument if it was taken anywhere, but it's just left like this.
Now I think ASP brings this up because "hey being on all wagons looks bad and I can mention it" but hey I'll break down why this can be half-decent to begin with but why just leaving it here doesn't say anything.

Spoiler:

Why wagon over-flexibility a scummy thing in the firstplace
Being too open to wagoning or lynching anything suggests someone is okay with everyone being expendable; and the likelihood of the person forming their own separate real evaluations of these wagons and being in favour every time AS OPPOSED TO them not having real stances and being fine with settling for anything IS low. If someone does this on top of not going into or conflicting with townreads (i.e. throwing away townreads opportunistically) the conclusion is they probably don't actually have townreads. If done especially with someone not pushing anything on their own it suggests they don't actually have a real lynch preference or desire to influence the game beyond survival.
Considerations
As solid as this sounds it doesn't take into account "pressure" and how people approach more null or inactive slots, how wagons have almost stages where it ramps up and gets more serious, basically the finer details.
It also has to be considered that wagons can be influenced by gamestate reasons and how a dead game can lower one's standards in order to get anything going.
Like anything it needs nuance and context to function. How bad is each individual wagon and votee vs the vote onto them?

Standalone there's no problem saying this fact, but not saying how or why it's worthy of note leaves it a weak statement.

I will not be around between now and day's end, but I see some merit to the Dragon wagon. I like Rask right now for top scum, but based upon this wagon and Rask's place on it, I could see them as partners.

This sounds pretty certain of a dragon scumflip considering ASP inactivity.
I just don't buy that townASP comes in and scumreads me, sees "some merit" to dragon and confidently suggests that partner association (that convinced on dragon too?), all without once saying anything about murdercat or KTS wagons which were going on at the time. I think its unlikely someone naturally comes in with this stance after lurking day 1 and it just reads to me he actually knows what happens next WRT the flip.

Spoiler:

Also in my mind, in terms of probability
-scum ASP 100% says this
-town ASP doesn't necessarily; with potential to read dragon differently or seeing a negative association
which is a suggestion rather than a rule but townASP just happening to overall play in a way that would be optimal for scumASP is less likely imo than him just being scum

Overall I assume he looked at me because I scumread him (like vedith earlier) and decided to make this from skimming VCs; I don't see consideration. Probably didn't read the game or most of my ISO and didn't go into my reads or anything I said (other than that I would ideally lynch him). Basically pointing out things but not taking them to conclusions, and the way he comments (stating facts instead of making judgements) vs the feeling I get from it I don't think it's a real read. It isn't immediately obvious but specifically talking on wagon positioning and timing instead of once going into CONTENT is a wtf approach but especially at d1 before any flips the vc analysis I don't get it. Same with his weirdness earliergame, I really can't follow this train of thought as town.

The vote itself (how it was a vanity/for-show vote) on revisit isn't bad since as town one would also legit want to vote vanity if they did genuinely scumread dragon (as opposed to unannounced hammer or no-vote), but with the reason being to leave your other scumread there and explained for people in case you died. But him not saying anything to that effect and approaching this as he did I have no reason to believe that VS him just wanting to tie association with his partner. Scum ASP at that point can't really counterwagon if their partner is l-1 and also wouldn't want to unannounced-hammer so supporting the lynch while talking about something else makes sense.

[Raskolnikov]

I want to make a distinction though. ASP isn't scum because his arguments are bad, he's probably scum because he's not thinking about the game in a way I see as beyond puddle-deep or genuine.
Obviously given his activity it doesn't make sense to expect anything in-depth, but given that I'd expect a lower level of confidence 'expressed'(what I feel he gives off) from him, furthermore I think he misses basic obvious considerations and doesn't focus on things which make sense.
His approach reads to me like someone who decided to scumread me and skim for justification afterwards.

[Killthestory]

Hey man I'll do stuff Ina bit

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: A Simple Plan

I think this should be the lynch for the day.

If you think hiplop was killed because he was on scum, I was pretty much his suspect. MURDERCAT, why didn't you two follow up your thought with a push/doubts on me?

[Nachomamma8]

VOTE: Nacho

Let's start here.

Okay, why?

Well, it's very interesting that hiplop was killed, being of the wagon on scum.
He basically has been shouting Nacho is scum the entire time.
ASP was also someone on hiplop's radar.

hiplop is very good at scumhunting, so I think at least one of these 2 must be scum or they would not have killed him. Especially considering the low amount of content hiplop produced.

Simple as that.

Although to address this piece of reasoning, I don't kill lurkers who suspect me. Hiplop didn't have clout. Hiplop didn't have reasoning. The only reasoning for scum to kill him last night is because people had suspicions of him having a power role; a competent scumteam doesn't shoot there for any other reason.

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[MURDERCAT]

MURDERCAT, why didn't you two follow up your thought with a push/doubts on me?

What are you referring to?

I think we should lynch asp and then insta lynch nacho if asp is town.

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: asp

[Raskolnikov]

Murder can you go into your reads again?

[MURDERCAT]

Lucky for you I'm about to do a reread!

[MURDERCAT]

Spoiler: reread

Ok so hiplop is conf town and dragon is conf scum. Those will be my guides for this reread. Paying special attention to ASP too.

he is quoting my sig lol

I know. Im not THAT dumb. He was criticizing your deviance from that plan.

Feeling dwlee town for this stuff, by the way.

108 is a nothing post by ASP.

simple plans entrance is bad

Important.

I'm conftown

VOTE: simpleplan

hes not

VOTE: ASP

Eeeehh. It looked worse on first impression than now but there's nothing better?

Hmm why Hip and not rask? I feel like ASP is scum and hip was killed because of a PR read or something like that but we are lucky and right about him being scum.

Jester wagon is REAL BAD

VOTE: Dragon of the West

Worst iso, imo.

Shoulda stuck on that.

Show just ended but phone is at 1% Don't see much so far besides a bunch of NAI shitposting

All fluff from him and 5 pages in he has no reads. I don't think I love the ASP wagon, tbh.

Hmm should I trust past self?

I don't have a problem with ASP agreeing with a read the person he had his vote on made.

Important.

As was specified, I thought I would be able to do a catchup post, and I wasn't. I'm sorry.

I've sorta skim read everything, and I'm pleased that Nacho is picking up the pace a little bit.
I still like what I said about Shadow's vote on Vedith. He's produced nothing worthwhile, aside from some bs about I have to be scum because I agree with something said by the guy I'm voting for. That's... Bad.

VOTE: Vedith

Last note for now, this isn't the Bella I'm used to, but I agree that I don't really quite get this Nacho thing. I'll have to reread that.

I do know that the next few days are going to be stupid busy for me, though.

Plot:

Putting myself on V/LA until further notice. If I do not post in the next 84 hours (3 days 12 hours, equating to late Sunday my time) please replace me regardless of this message.

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I think I can lynch him for this post.

Reading over things, I've come to the decision that i might be wrong about Vedith in terms of him being scum. Rereading his ISO for Open 606 and Micro 547 (I'll link to them later, I'm late for a dinner date ATM) the only major difference I can see in his playstyle is activity, which is decisively in my book not alignment indicative. He was town both of the aforementioned games. For now...

UNVOTE:

We are lynching this.

473 makes me think nacho is town

Id prefer asp death to kts

Important.

519 Nacho is town friends.

The dragon wagon sucks, lynch murdercat.

lol dwlee

532 more dwlee is town evidence

I'm guessing we can't swing an ASP lynch last minute?

Why aren't you dead.

KTS town for the hammer.

All in is town for his slot by the way.

Ugh Rask maybe I'll read that wall later, I agree ASP is scum though.

[Dwlee99]

are u using meta to town read me. eh whatever leads u to a right conclusion

[MURDERCAT]

nope

[MURDERCAT]

There's like 3 different points I said to myself dwlee is pretty much for sure town on day 1.

[Dwlee99]

I was assuming you were saying my scum meta is hard bussing and therefore me not joining the dragon wagon means I'm town. What are you saying then? lol

[MURDERCAT]

Oh, I just don't think scum does that to a buddy that's about to be lynched at deadline.

[Dwlee99]

as long as you're right that's all that matters, fam

[MURDERCAT]

vote asp so KTS can hammer scum again.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: asp

[MURDERCAT]

claim