Newbie 1728: Training Your Dragon Mafia [Game Over]

[reso]

PhantomCobalt, please make a statement in (expired on 2016-07-29 19:34:31) or I'll quickhammer you.

A quickhammer is when you hammer without stating your intent to do so. You've expressed your intent to hammer, and even given a time frame as well. Your just doing a regular hammer.

[RyanK]

PhantomCobalt, please make a statement in (expired on 2016-07-29 19:34:31) or I'll quickhammer you.

A quickhammer is when you hammer without stating your intent to do so. You've expressed your intent to hammer, and even given a time frame as well. Your just doing a regular hammer.

Oh, got the definition wrong. I thought a quickhammer is a hammer without the player making a defence first.

[RyanK]

PhantomCobalt, please make a statement in (expired on 2016-07-29 19:34:31) or I'll quickhammer you.

A quickhammer is when you hammer without stating your intent to do so. You've expressed your intent to hammer, and even given a time frame as well. Your just doing a regular hammer.

Oh, got the definition wrong. I thought a quickhammer is a hammer without the player making a defence first.

Just noticed that even with this definition, he had already made some defences, well, I'm just going to give him some grace wait till this countdown expires then I would hammer him on the head. Let's see what he has to say.

[RyanK]

If my own VC is correct IV is at L-2 right now

Unfortunately...... IV was at L-0 for 3 minutes after Rusty's vote.

LIKE, what the actual fuck, Rusty. SERIOUSLY WHAT THE FUCK.

Isn't there regulations about words in the English language that can mean anything?
It's my opinion that this post is what made rusty quit.

[0x40]

It's my opinion that this post is what made rusty quit.

Getting Rusty to quit was no doubt a good thing. It basically upgraded a VI to a non-VI.

[RyanK]

Spoiler:

So, I still don't have much, if anything, to post about Vedith. So, I'll just start by posting his thoughts about me.

reso

- I feel the reaction to the L1 was over exaggerated. What I didn't like though, was

the voting before hand

and putting RyanK and IV as his suspects with the impression that he doesn't care who is lynched from them.

First of all, I don't quite understand the wording of the bold. Because in my Post #64/Iso #5, I explain my reasoning and vote afterwards, and not before. There are follow up inquiries about my reason and answer them as them. But that shouldn't be counted as my reasoning after my vote.

And I did show care for who I'd rather see lynched first, and a secondary reason why. I don't know what you are looking at exactly.

The reasoning was bad as well, because he used him in an example. I didn't feel that he was trying to pressure with his vote, so I'm not sure what he was hoping for by voting other than looking town.

I agree that my reasoning is bad here. I feel like to try and get out of RVS, someone has to go out of their own way to attack someone in a weird way, so I decided to go out on a limb and attack something that I felt was a possible scum slip. Before this post, the game was stuck in a state of RVS/RQS and theory-questioning. And afterwards, discussion about the actual game at hand started to flow. I may have gotten a bit aggressive, but you are right in that I was not trying to pressure anyone with this vote.

His stops voting IV (keeping in mind he barley mentions him, even though his vote is still on IV) and turns to Maverick briefly.

My vote on Maverick.... was serious, but admittedly dumber-than-dumb. IN MY DEFENSE, everyone else beforehand referred to innocentvillager as IV, and at the other forum that I play at, innocents are referred to as 'inno'. I was just being a dumb.

Giving a 3 strike policy lynch rule is terrible and anti town. Policy lynches are always anti town imo (Go on, challenge me with that comment!).

I agree with you that Policy Lynches are always anti-town, but only so in the statistical sense, that there will always be more town than there are scum. I don't lynch by policy for the sake for the sake of the town. I do so for the sake of the game. If a player does some bad in general game-wise, I will call them out on it, but if said player continues their bad general play and/or behavior, then I will happily vote to get rid of them.

Example: one of my most recent finished games was a 45-man literal-day period chocolate game. There were many lurkers and the mods could not find enough subs. Mass mod-killing would have broken the game, so we instead opted to regularly policy lynch the lurkers and inactives. It also allowed for extending discussion time. While the majority of those that were PL'd were town, there were some scum that were PL'd as well.

I use policy lynches for the sake of the game, not for the sake of the town.

If he was that angry, he would gave pressured instead of giving out a warning.

I chose to give a warning instead of extreme pressuring because this is a NEWBIE GAME. A game where newbies come to learn to play the game. Looking at Rusty's previous posts, it was evident that he was a bonafide newbie.

I did not want to scare him away like what happened in my own first game, so I gave him a warning instead of further pressuring.

Spoiler:

Hammering so soon in the day is a strong scum tell generally(I don't believe that he realised it was a hammer).

Can this also be said for newbies?

Isn't it the very thing he said he didn't want to do.

[Vaxkiller]

VOTE: Vedith
I'm 100% sure that was a scum flake

@0x40 Who is your next in line scum read?

After you and PhantomCobalt, hiplop takes third place due to being unusually lurky despite being an IC. Rusty (now Vedith) is still scummy in my opinion, but I'll wait until he gives his thoughts on the game before I place him anywhere on my list. I also didn't like how Maverick1102 wanted to cut the day short before hearing from the Rusty replacement. I think it was fairly obvious at that point that Rusty was gonna be replaced, so he's fourth on my list due to that minor scumread. I'd like to hear his explanation on that.

What are your thoughts on everyone?

@0x40 You railed on my about my wording that I was sure RyanK was scum, then Cobalt (who you already believe is scum) says he is 100% sure Vedith is scum and you still haven't mentioned it at all.


Here we have Hiplop asking mav about me:

If anyone scumreads 0x40 over Phantom then you need to walk away, give your head a wobble then return and rethink your reads.

Thoughts on vaxkiller?

RyanK replies and his response:

Don't find him too mysterious. How about you, hiplop?

Really think hes scum. And it is paining me that I can't find the words as to why

To me, this smells like a setup for Day 2 or just trying to plant a seed for someone to run with, just casually mentioning they think someone is scum but cant say why... hoping someone else will run with it so they don't seem scummy.

THEN Cobalt agrees with him...

Yes ready vax's posts seem a bit irky in my gut

I don't know what to think about this, here are the thought running through my head.

When it comes down to it there are only 4 configurations that work here:

Cobalt Scum and Hiplop Scum

- I would really think scum would want to distance themselves at this point, but maybe it was thought to be such a small unnoticeable thought (Hiplop and cobalt don't give any reasons) that it would be mostly ignored, but they still point the "thought" out there, to see if someone else would take it and run with it. You will also notice hiplop did not ask cobalt for his opinion, he asked RyanK. But cobalt knowing he was likely to go down tried to start something by agreeing with his scum-buddy, doing everything in his power to survive, including incriminating his scum buddy!

Cobalt Scum and Hiplop Town

- Possible, but a little lazy of hiplop. Hiplop has to have some reason to suspect me, but can't say why, and he is one of the more experience players in this game, so he should be able to...

I do not think cobalt is town but listed these here as a configuration so I could write my thoughts out.

Cobalt Town and Hiplop Scum

- Cobalt town configuration seems unlikely because it would be some really bad playing of town and he is a somewhat experienced player according to the first post. Hiplop could still be scum in this configuration, trying to setup for day 2, or just hoping someone would run with the thought later, but I would think it is less likely.

Cobalt Town and Hiplop Town

- Again, we have 2 unlikely events coming together, 2 experienced players not playing their best in a newbie game... This seems like the most unlikely.


A few other unaddressed thoughts - Mav never answers Hiplop, he seems way to busy tunneled on cobalt (can't argue with that, but he should be looking elsewhere as well) I wanted to point this out for future reference, If your scumbuddy asks you a direct question, I would say you are likely to answer it thinking they have some sort of plan, but MAV ignores him. If Hiplop flips scum in the future, I think this makes Mav more than likely town.


Holy wall of text, sorry...

[0x40]

@0x40 You railed on my about my wording that I was sure RyanK was scum, then Cobalt (who you already believe is scum) says he is 100% sure Vedith is scum and you still haven't mentioned it at all.

There's a pretty big difference between a VI spouting nonsense while desperately trying not to get lynched, and a far less idiotic but still somewhat VI-ish person claiming that someone "has to be scum" at the beginning of d1.

[hiplop]

Some interesting things in here. Previously, you were voting for Maverick for... well... the reasons you stated in this post. But at what point did the inactivity of hiplop become so great and noticeable that he became more scummy that Maverick. Hiplop has been inactive in general for the entirety of the game to this point, so I'm not really seeing a 'when'. Second, your lynch suspects for the day are 0x40 and hiplop. Why is 0x40 in there over Maverick? If they both have weak/terrible logic, wouldn't you want the person that is 'actively scumhunting' alive over the one that 'doesn't read and just skims then makes accusations'?

I do have reasons. I hope I haven't been too absent, but it is partly intentional. I am trying to keep my reads fairly transparent, anyway.

[hiplop]

His stops voting IV (keeping in mind he barley mentions him, even though his vote is still on IV) and turns to Maverick briefly.

Yeah, this isn't good reasoning IMO. The guy was confused. That is a townie thing more than anything to me?

[hiplop]

Disclaimer: I *do* have a scumread on phantom. I think mavericks case is pretty airtight.

The issue is that I have personal experience seeing phantom get lynched as town a lot for good reasons. I'm doing some research on my own to see parallels. I would prefer no hammer for a little while.

[Vedith]

The issue is that I have personal experience seeing phantom get lynched as town a lot for good reasons. I'm doing some research on my own to see parallels. I would prefer no hammer for a little while.

Can you share these situations in games?
As you have played with him before, when he's up for the lynch normally does he just give up or argue his case?

[Maverick1102]

People can be aware of and change their own meta.

[Vedith]

People can be aware of and change their own meta.

Given, Yes... however I'd like to see how he has acted. I can see his play changing but it's the minor detail to look for.
Here he hasn't really argued his case to a proper level and us just insisting a self vote. As an SE I struggle to believe that he wants to self vote and find it a standard play from scum to either look town or not to risk outting a scum buddy.
That said, if he does scummy things as town, that changes a lot on the view here. I'm not at my PC right now but I'll need to check further soon as well.
My other concern is that there is no counter wagon going and everyone seems happy with the lynch here.

[reso]

Some interesting things in here. Previously, you were voting for Maverick for... well... the reasons you stated in this post. But at what point did the inactivity of hiplop become so great and noticeable that he became more scummy that Maverick. Hiplop has been inactive in general for the entirety of the game to this point, so I'm not really seeing a 'when'. Second, your lynch suspects for the day are 0x40 and hiplop. Why is 0x40 in there over Maverick? If they both have weak/terrible logic, wouldn't you want the person that is 'actively scumhunting' alive over the one that 'doesn't read and just skims then makes accusations'?

I do have reasons. I hope I haven't been too absent, but it is partly intentional. I am trying to keep my reads fairly transparent, anyway.

I don't quite understand what you are doing by answering to my analysis of PhantomCobalt in this quote and my Maverick analysis in the next post.

[reso]

Oh wait, no. That second post was from Vedith's post, and the way you quoted it, it made it look like I was the one quoting it.

[Firebringer]

Dragon Training Tip #12. Dragon Opera. Go to it. You will get some dragon culture in it, and don't listen to frogs that tell you its a bad idea or that they don't want to go. Make them go to, threaten them with dragon fury if they don't go. Dragon Opera is great.

Vote Count 1.13

Reso (L-5):
0x40 (L-4): Vaxkiller,
Vedith (L-4): PhantomCobalt,
Vaxkiller(L-5):
RyanK (L-4): Reso
innocentvillager (L-5):
PhantomCobalt (L-1): Maverick1102, innocentvillager, hiplop, Vedith,
Maverick1102 (L-4): RyanK,
hiplop (L-5):

Not Voting (1): 0x40,

With 9 Alive, It Takes 5 to Lynch
Day 1 Ends In (expired on 2016-08-01 20:00:00)

Mod Notes: None.

[innocentvillager]

Hi guys, really sorry I haven't checked in yet/posted real content. I promise content tomorrow, or I definitely replace out. It might not be comprehensive bc I have a lot of RL stress, but I'll at least read through the thread and formulate some reads and you guys can ask me if you want me to look at more specific stuff.

[RyanK]

I didn't put a time frame for my hammer for no reason, I am trying to buy ourselves some time to look for the other scumbuddy. But I feel as though things have slowed down.

[reso]

Well, the end of the night is drawing near and since I've done what I can with my reads, I'll post my scumdar list (or lack of, I suppose):

hiplop, innocentvillager, Vaxkiller, and Vedith are all nullreads, just purely on the fact that they haven't done enough posting for me to look at. Hiplop has mentioned that while he does have a scumread on Phantom, he'd like us to hold off on the hammer because he's doing research first, and so I'm hoping he will post his results from that. We're still waiting for IV to pull through with his thoughts of what has transpired during his absence. Vedith gets a bye for having just recently joined the game.

But Vaxkiller has no excuse. I saw his post about Phantom's 'TvT' post and WIFOM analysis, but there wasn't much I could apply to the person that is Vaxkiller. On a reread of his ISO, his #362/Iso #14 did pop up at me because he considered some possibilities that could have happened if PhantomCobalt was scum, but no possibilities of Phantom being town. Some level of tunneling exists there.

___

I don't have a scum list per say, but I do have list of offenses. Maverick is present on the chopping block for being uncooperative with town and blowing up the PhantomCobalt case out of proportion, where RyanK and PhantomCobalt are also on the block for inconsistent reasoning and actions.

Maverick has 3 counts of making personal attacks on people for not thinking the way he does and not voting for the same person as he is. He also is a master of double standards with him calling out 0x40 for his tunneling, telling him to stop because it's distracting, and then later proceeding to proclaim that he is tunneling PhantomCobalt. His blatant tunneling and overreaction to the 'reaction' of his 'call for an intent to hammer and claim' blows up the greatness of PhantomCobalt's faults despite a relatively quiet wagon (with the exception of Maverick, of course). Either he is not reading the same game I am looking at right now, or he is intentionally doing this. Also, I was looking at this post again:

Cobalt quickly backtracks (having no conviction in his vote-SCUM) and looks to earn townpoints by

looking about for ways to not have the hammer apply (eventually settling on the same rule quote I do)

and somehow succeeds.

And I just want to ask. "Why is 'settling on the same rule quote that you did' is a circumstance that makes PhantomCobalt look scummy?" Because if I recall, the only rule quote at that point in time was our Dragon God GM Firekiller's Post #99. It didn't matter if PhantomCobalt was Town or Scum. The GM's word is law. And so I ask again, why is 'settling on the same rule quote that you did' is a circumstance that makes PhantomCobalt look scummy?

As for the choice between RyanK and PhantomCobalt, I would choose to vote for RyanK over PhantomCobalt. I feel like RyanK has been more inconsistent and considerably more unpredictable than PhantomCobalt has been. However, despite their inconsistencies, I feel like neither of them will flip scum.

UNVOTE: RyanK
VOTE: Maverick1102

---

0x40 has been my only read leaning town so far. I'd like to look at 0x40's case on Vaxkiller the way hiplop looked at my very first vote on Maverick on the usage of the word 'Inno' to refer to IV. 0x40 just looks like a super excited player. Just take the excitement level from that initial Maverick1102 post, and stretch it on top of 0x40's 'has to be scum' discussion. Also..... could you explain to me how exactly you are putting on a quantitative quality on how certain you are that someone is going to turn up scum or town? Because that is incredibly beyond me.

[Maverick1102]

I'll shorten Reso's argument for you all:

I don't like Ox40 tunnelling on people who I thought at that point were town, but I'd be more than happy if they were to tunnel on my scumread. I'm strong in how I approach my case about my scumread, I push hard and apparently I'm unco-operative with town? I hardly agree.

But the reasoning behind the quote is such a bad misrepresentation. The point was that Cobalt had no conviction in his vote, and worried that he'd be accused of scumhood for allowing a quickhammer to happen (townpoints for IV for this btw) quickly backtracked to look like he'd valiantly tried to save the day. That they settled on the same rule that I did is a moot point, I was simply recalling the events for people. (You know, that whole co-operating with town thing).

That is such a forced vote and the fact that you give yourself a disclaimer at the start of that 'this isn't a scum list' reeks.

Genuinely considering changing my vote.

[Maverick1102]

'Maverick's been pushing hard on his scumread and it might just work, better vote him quick'

Massive drop in townpoints for Reso there.

[Vedith]

'Maverick's been pushing hard on his scumread and it might just work, better vote him quick'

Massive drop in townpoints for Reso there.

At least you can see why he's also on my scummy list.
I'm not sure how to look at this though. Yesterday I would have said he wouldn't be trying to save his buddy, surely... However, after HipLop re checking, after my comments and the lynch actually having hope of not happening, I can see it as an opportunity to move others away from his partner here.

The problem with lynching Reso first is

IF

Reso flips town, it changes little opinion on the Phantom votes.
However, the other way around
1 - Phantom flips scum, Reso would be a probably partner (Or a good place to start)
2 - Phantom flips town, Reso would be a probably town

At this point, there is no need to try and get town credit by calling town, town. Phantom has put no additional effort in, and with an oppornity to lynch else
where, it wouldn't give him any town credit.

[Vedith]

Oh great Mod above... I have once again forsaken your trust! Please give me the strengh and correct the error in my ways (Above tag)

[0x40]

Also..... could you explain to me how exactly you are putting on a quantitative quality on how certain you are that someone is going to turn up scum or town? Because that is incredibly beyond me.

It's simple. I know that I'm town, and there are 8 other players, which means that from my point of view, there has to be 2 scum among those 8 players.
Probability of any of those players being scum = 8 / 2 = 0.25, or 25%. When someone does something scummy/towny, it increases the probability of that person being scum/town by an amount based mostly on statistics and educated guesses, and slightly decreases everyone else's probability of being scum/town because that's how math and probability works. I think giving actual numbers, even if they are far from perfectly accurate, is much better than being needlessly vague with wording like "likely scum," "very likely scum," or "somewhat likely scum." For example, when Marverick1102 said that he'd be surprised if PhantomCobalt flipped town, does that mean he thinks it's about 20% likely he'll flip town, or 1% likely he'll flip town? His wording could easily be stretched to mean either, but one of those numbers is twenty times larger than the other.