In post 624, reso wrote:...
I think my vote will be on RyanK this day as well. Looking at his patterns, it's clear that he lacks conviction with most of his votes because he's so wishy-washy wtih where he places them. The one post with conviction, the Cobalt hammer, was done so without taking into consideration the requests put forth by the IC (though I realize that RyanK had initially used a timer for a deadline of the hammer). It seems to me that he was also aware of me thinking the Cobalt case was blown out of proportion, as he reflects to his #581. I get the feeling he choose to play the vote-precautionary-safe townie whenever he can, and then not when it better suits the situation. It was the same for today as well. Hiplop got to L-1. Everyone here knows better than to quickhammer, and even then he pulls his vote off of hiplop. Can also be perceived as an unwilling to trust the general populace.
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Yes, I've hardly got any conviction on anyone because anything someone does can always have a reason, we just have got to wait for the player to say what it is (unless the player has posted a lot no purpose, but doesn't defend himself). I had a conviction on PhantomCobalt because it seemed as though counting Rusty's vote doesn't at all make any sense, but even with such a strong scumread, PhantomCobalt flipped town! Don't blame me for hammering, it's not like you didn't contribute to Maverick1102's tunneling before saying the case is out of proportion, (post 457) in effect, adding on to my suspicion of PhantomCobalt.
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Also, couldn't hiplop have unvoted PhantomCobalt to prevent the hammer if he really wanted to delay the hammer? The fact that he didn't retract his hammer when he stated he would prefer no hammer already suggest otherwise.
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What's the problem of me unvoting hiplop to prevent a quickhammer?
In post 624, reso wrote:...
2) In your #588, you mentioned that RyanK gave Phantom a chance to look town, and Phantom didn't take it. I'm disagree and am inclined to think that Phantom simply gave up. My reasoning for this is 0x40's #449:
In post 447, PhantomCobalt wrote:So you're going to hammer me even though you think I'll flip town? The fuck
Yeah. A d1 40% scum lynch is pretty good in my opinion. Does anyone know what the average for d1 scum lynches here on MS is?
People were going to lynch him even if some/one of them thought there was a better chance of him flipping town. If I were going to be lynched for that same sort of reason, I'd just give up as well.
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Your hypothesis that PhantomCobalt is correct, but your hypothesis that it was because 0x40's post is wrong. PhantomCobalt stated in post 453 that he's giving up and the reason was Maverick1102 was tunneling him. I thought it was a scum admitting defeat, and is part of the reason I placed an intent to hammer.
In my opinion, PhantomCobalt did try his best to look town after I stated an intent for hammering, it's just that, he didn't do it enough so the earlier things that seemed scummy because of Maverick1102's tunneling would be overlooked. It's not his fault thoug
For now, I'm waiting for innocentvillager's response to my question in post 598, hiplop's response to post 609, and Vaxkiller's response to my question above.
Correction: I accidentally asked Vaxkiller for a response to my question, which I found to be invalid later and removed it, but I forgot to remove that last part.
In post 627, Maverick1102 wrote:Letting yourself always get swayed by arguments is a bad way to play. If you have no conviction in your reads then scum can walk all over you.
In post 627, Maverick1102 wrote:Letting yourself always get swayed by arguments is a bad way to play. If you have no conviction in your reads then scum can walk all over you.
I mean despite it's a better way to play as I wouldn't be persuaded by scum, what if the theories were from a scum? It's a recipe for disaster in that situation.
In post 631, RyanK wrote:I mean despite it's a better way to play as I wouldn't be persuaded by scum, what if the theories were from a scum? It's a recipe for disaster in that situation.
BUT that's the THING about conviction. We don't know who is scum nor who is town, so we have to go with what we think is right given the reasonings that we have. You could be listening to the perfectly helpful person only to find out at the end of the game that you've been backstabbed by that same person who was actually scum (The Too Townie Fallacy). The only thing you know for sure is what alignment you are of. I understand the desire for balance, but without this conviction, not only are you going to walked over by scum but town as well.
You have mentioned that hiplop and IV are your scumspects. Of them, who do you think is the more scummiest, and why?
In post 631, RyanK wrote:I mean despite it's a better way to play as I wouldn't be persuaded by scum, what if the theories were from a scum? It's a recipe for disaster in that situation.
BUT that's the THING about conviction. We don't know who is scum nor who is town, so we have to go with what we think is right given the reasonings that we have. You could be listening to the perfectly helpful person only to find out at the end of the game that you've been backstabbed by that same person who was actually scum (The Too Townie Fallacy). The only thing you know for sure is what alignment you are of. I understand the desire for balance, but without this conviction, not only are you going to walked over by scum but town as well.
You have mentioned that hiplop and IV are your scumspects. Of them, who do you think is the more scummiest, and why?
Hiplop as he lied about how often he's posting. Also, his post before the PhantomCobalt lynch seemed to be suggesting he would prefer a lynch. Thanks for helping out.
innocentvillager has only a very minor accusation, so it's less likely.
In post 406, reso wrote:I am of the understanding that the mafia is typically composed one experienced player and one newer player so the experienced player can more or less guide/teach the newbie on mafia play. I think it's also worth pointing out that, with the exception of his vote on me in Post #180/Iso #42 (because I more or less goaded him into it) and Vaxkiller in Post #124/Iso #26 (for the sake of a reaction????), all of his votes and actual suspicions up to this point were for either the IC or the SE's. If I were the mafia, the easy way to win a newbie game would be to first slow down the amount of useful information getting into the thread, and the easiest way to do that would be to get rid of those with the experience. Also worth noting, it took a 12 post period of time for him to voice who he thought was scum and actually voting for said scum suspects.
Want to get this out quick: this is not how newbie games work. Alignments are 100 percent random and have no tie to experience level
In post 609, RyanK wrote:Why did you claim you'll post a few times a day, but you didn't do so. You should definitely know better you don't post at that rate
I mean, i would argue that ive been doing exactly as i said. Perhaps a tad muted, but still, i tend to be posting about once a day.
Not going to lie, part of the muted posting has been a sort of fesr of getting nightkilled. Happens a lot recently and its no fun :+
In post 406, reso wrote:I am of the understanding that the mafia is typically composed one experienced player and one newer player so the experienced player can more or less guide/teach the newbie on mafia play. I think it's also worth pointing out that, with the exception of his vote on me in Post #180/Iso #42 (because I more or less goaded him into it) and Vaxkiller in Post #124/Iso #26 (for the sake of a reaction????), all of his votes and actual suspicions up to this point were for either the IC or the SE's. If I were the mafia, the easy way to win a newbie game would be to first slow down the amount of useful information getting into the thread, and the easiest way to do that would be to get rid of those with the experience. Also worth noting, it took a 12 post period of time for him to voice who he thought was scum and actually voting for said scum suspects.
Want to get this out quick: this is not how newbie games work. Alignments are 100 percent random and have no tie to experience level
HUGE thank you for this, it will stop me from thinking a specific way.
In post 613, Maverick1102 wrote:Ninja'd: I'd have to go through more analysis of X40's posts and reads but that's a wiiiiide road of WIFOM. I think the best way to approach it is look at it as a random kill. I'm awful at NKA and would rather do without it than become entrenched in a WIFOM-y back-and-forth.
Yea, nka can be very dangerous. Wise to avoid it until you really hage a grasp on things. Im assuming the scum thought x40 was a power role.
In post 627, Maverick1102 wrote:Letting yourself always get swayed by arguments is a bad way to play. If you have no conviction in your reads then scum can walk all over you.
Who do you think is scum?
Ont he other hand, listening and trying o understand viewpoints of other townies is super strong. I personally try to find town before i find scum.
In post 625, RyanK wrote:Also, couldn't hiplop have unvoted PhantomCobalt to prevent the hammer if he really wanted to delay the hammer? The fact that he didn't retract his hammer when he stated he would prefer no hammer already suggest otherwise.
Honestly. Yea. I probably should have. Foresight is mighty, however. I hoenstly dont think i would have pushed it away from phantom. I was having a hard time seeing others as well, scum. He kinda fit in the puzzle i was building in my head
If what your saying doesn't add up, and it will become apparent soon if that is the case, then that brings us right back to hiplop/innocentvillager as scum
Otherwise I still have Vedith pegged as scum, but that means the next most likely scum partner for him would be RyanK... I'm not sure if that makes sense. I will have to look more into their interactions...
