Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[Alchemist21]

Titus and Something_Smart forfeit their hands. Infinity wins the pot. New hands coming soon.

UPDATE: All hands have been dealt. The current pot is $35.

[Something_Smart]

Fold

[farside22]

I'll have something together for this game on Thursday.

[MathBlade]

Check

Off to work I go.

[Titus]

Mod: Can we have notice before autofold? Like a timer? I didn't know which way I wanted to go.

I check on this hand.

Math, any reason you didn't fold?

[Infinity 324]

We can just wait out these hands cause if someone wins I don't get BP

[Fire Assassin]

Raise to 200

I am getting rid of all my money this round.

[Fire Assassin]

Mod: Can we have notice before autofold? Like a timer? I didn't know which way I wanted to go.

I check on this hand.

Math, any reason you didn't fold?

Lane said he didn't have any money left, so I think you auto were going to fold regardless.

[Fire Assassin]

I am discussing my thoughts towards the authenticity of both Fire and Infinity's claims.

To me it does not make sense to leave three power roles alive. Anyone not voting in me/Infinity/Fire has to explain that. Granted I know I am town but from an outside POV I am still an option to be lynched.

A confirmed town is less valuable a shot because we were already shooting ourselves in the foot with these mislynches.

We need to get our shit together now.

You are not a power role. You bought a 1 shot Tracker, its not the same thing.
And you tracked someone completely worthless. Who likely was going to get NK because he was townread by all and cleared by a player.

You trying to PoE this game through claims to me is ridiculous since theres only two real power role claims. Yours doesn't count.

[Fire Assassin]

@Fire -- How is it relevant how often something happens? That is gambler's fallacy. What needs to be determined is what happened here.

I don't know what your talking about here.
I think your talking about how often a player does something? Or I referred to situations in which a player is more often/likely to do X. That isn't gamblers fallacy. Gamblers fallacy relates to when events are in a completely random scenario and you are betting on odds because of past historical events. Players are not random, so they don't pertain to the gamblers fallacy.

If I said "Math, you are scum because the last several games you have been town, so you are due for a scum game" that would be gamblers fallacy.

[Fire Assassin]

1) you could have shot night 1
So this excuse just looks like crap.

Why would I shot night 1 when reads are the weakest, I subbed in when we were half way through day 1 and you think I would be confident enough to shoot then? I am a 1-shot. Why would I waste my shot so early when my reads were just forming.

Because you said you would.

I never said I would shoot someone Night 1.
Way to mislead with false info.

[Alchemist21]

Mod: Can we have notice before autofold? Like a timer? I didn't know which way I wanted to go.

I check on this hand.

Math, any reason you didn't fold?

All players who must act have 48 hours from the last action (counting folds) to submit an action, and actions are listed in the betting history tab in each votecount. I can start putting a notice when 24 hours have passed since the last action though.

[Alchemist21]

♠ ♡ DAY 3 VOTECOUNT ♢ ♣

Fire Assassin(2):

Infinity, mathblade

something_smart(2):

farside, Titus

mathblade:

fire assassin

farside:

something_smart

Not Voting(2): Something_Smart, Shadow_Step

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

The current pot is $235

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:
Ante
Mathblade checks
Titus checks
Fure Assassin bets $200
Something smart folds

Day ends in (expired on 2016-08-13 12:30:00)

[MathBlade]

Mod: Can we have notice before autofold? Like a timer? I didn't know which way I wanted to go.

I check on this hand.

Math, any reason you didn't fold?

Because another hand started and trying to keep money away from scum. And in poker rules you can check once you have ante'd.

Fire -- Any reason you raised?
Titus -- Why did you check?

More likely to do X or Y happens because of a predisposed supposition based on prior events. Asking what is more likely based on past games is gamblers fallacy.

If it is what is more likely without that context I agree. However in order to answer the question one must reflect on prior games thus introducing it to a lesser degree. And players are more random than one may think.

The question is not what is likely. The question is what is going on?

[MathBlade]

Assuming no other bets have been made*

[Titus]

Can I queue an action? If so, I call Fire effective 1 minute before folding would otherwise be required.

Math, I am not voting Fire. Letscum sort out the PRs. Infinity being bp is good.

Is Smart town? What are your reads?

[farside22]

okay I need a quick look at this. I feel certain that Smart is scum. I know I said that about RC and FAQ.
But seriously the dude has no cases, no scum reads other then me and the engagement most of the game is lack luster at best.

I'm not loving the WIFOM about night kills, scum kill or don't kill for reason's.
I want to reevalute, Fire, Math and Shadow.
I was thinking about Lane but I know if I read him I will just feel that hatreded I felt earlier so I'm just going to say HI Titus, how is your read coming along? Whom besides Smart are you scum reading currently?

[farside22]

Infinity my questions are for you.
You are town reading Mathblade but I'm a bit unsure can you explain why these things read town to you?

@mod: can abilities be used in the same night that they are bought ?

No. I tried.

Really? Why didn't they no kill then? How do you know scum aren't afraid of a tracker? And why isn't it smart for town to use a tracker?
What did the mm do last night?

Scum didn't no-kill because no-killing is useless in nearly all circumstances. Killing BBT was always going to be more efficient than no one.
I bought the Tracker and tried to use it, but I was denied by technicalities.
Also, getting the Tracker earlier on allows me to have maximum chances of tracking a kill rather than a bought ability. And if you track nothing, you get refunded, so no loss.

He can't afford it... So what about it?

I could afford it. It cost 1000$, I had 1160 or something. So yes, I bought it.

Here's the deal, if we don't get to use the items the night we buy them, we can't afford not to get all the powers.
If the mm bought the tracker, that's 4500 dollars left out there?
We need to get 2 people 1250. They can both get vengeful. This is the least we should try for.
2000 left. We get 2 people around 750. They can get jail keeper.
We'll go for who we think is Towniest?
That way we have the maximum abilities might 3?

Getting town vengefuls - known vengefuls - is ASKING for scum to go around and kill them later on. That has some bad points because welp, everybody knows this is who they're going after. But it has some good points in that a vengeful who survives is likely scum - but at this point killing them costs us a townie.

Already outed as tracker here.

Yes I tried to use it on Wingback. Got refunded so I will have another shot tonight.

Thought the push of money from Lane was weird at the start of the game so I tried figuring out who Lane's partner likely is. Also think it is weird they are dropping a shit ton of money today.

I have no hand/money today therefore I take no actions

Because I didn't believe the cop claim. Wingback specifically said the odd night cop claim was a good thing for scum to claim especially on a universally townread player. This meant one of two things to me:

1) Either Wingback was scum
Or
2) They had good instincts.

If Wingback was scum that would have also meant the cop claim was invalid. They wouldn't risk the cop claim being tracked so I tracked Wingback so I would start with either two townfirms or the scum team figured out.

Not enough troll posts. The Firebringer head of the hydra doesn't play like you are as town.

Ohhh fuck no you didn't

VOTE: Mathblade

I did. Firebringer buddies as town and trolls. Look at 1800. That is what I expect of town Firebringer.

Lane + FA = scum team

Look at that voting history.

It is lane and Fire

1) Using a tracker because of one comment from Wing?
2) Associative with Lane but the only thing he said about lane was the bet and lanes explosive nature towards me. I see no trying to talk to Lane or Titus in regards to his scum read of the slot or present more reasons.
3) Pushing more in regards to Fire's claim then anything else.

I'm noting the voting as something I'm going to check into myself next.

[farside22]

VC analysis:

♠ ♡ VOTECOUNT 1.20 ♢ ♣

FA_Q2 (6):

Wingback, farside22

, Something_Smart,

RedCoyote

, Fire Assassin, lane0168

[

LYNCH!

]

Fire Assassin (4):

The MM,

FA_Q2,

BlueBloodedToffee,

Infinity 324

[

L-2!

]

Not Voting (1):

qubixes

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

The current pot is $80
The amount to call is $20
Still in the hand:

Red Coyote, Wingback

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:
Ante
RedCoyote bets $10
BlueBloodedToffee folds
Fire Assassin folds
Infinity324 folds
qubixes folds
Something_Smart folds
FA_Q2 folds
The MM folds
Wingback raises to $20

Infinity 324 is V/LA the 10th-16th of July.

♠ ♡ DAY 2 VOTECOUNT ♢ ♣

redcoyote(LYNCH):

farside, shadow step, infinity, wingback, something smart

shadow step(4):

lane, something smart, red coyote, fire assassin

Fire Assassin:

Mathblace

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

There is no current pot.

No current hand.

Nobody must act.

Spoiler: Betting History

Bet orders:

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-27 01:22:00)

RedCoyote has been lynched! Everyone on his wagon received $120.

Spoiler: Role PM

Poker Mafia Role

Hello, RedCoyote. You are

Two-tone Tex.

They call you Two-tone Tex 'cause no matter what ya do you're always wearin' that suit. You done all your killin' in that suit and folks swear up 'n' down you're gonna be buried in that suit.

Abilities:

None (barring Shop Items)

Win Condition:

You are Town and win when all threats to the Town are eliminated.

Night Phase ends in (expired on 2016-07-30 01:03:00)

Okay I'm confused how Math has Fire and Lane as scum based on voting anaylsis here.
I don't know how something thinks both scum would be voting FAQ but neither would vote for RC.
I noted Smart and myself on both wagon's
Shadow/quix is either not voting anyone or voting on the wagon.


Usually I would need a flip with this conclusion but if there is 2 scum in this game they typically distance themselves with voting. And I would need to see the purpose of each of these votes with more then just a few dead.
I like 12 player games more for that reason.
I just put in green those that flipped and myself to assess it and about i'd say 95% there is typically at least 1 scum on a town wagon.
Smart followed me, Lane followed me (from what I recall) and fire voted mostly because it was him or FAQ.
Both votes from Smart follow me. The first time he did it he said he would look into me because I pushed the case (that never happened) and again with RC.
Again ready to blame me for pushing a case.
Wingback, Infinity and myself all discussed RC and went round and round and round some about RC. Shadow voted because again it was RC or him.

My view vote analysis is showing for sure Smart in both circumstances doing the scummy thing but just sheeping votes and blaming me for the lynch going wrong.
With Fire and Shadow voting just not to be lynched.

[Something_Smart]

Don't color yourself green in a VCA.

[Shadow_step]

Can we lynch Math already. zzzzzzzzz

[Shadow_step]

fold

[MathBlade]

1) The VCA -- VCA is a tool and without context the results are not helpful. I think fire and lane or infinity and shadow_step were on the same side of that lynch for one reason.

Because of something smart.

By both being on the lynch it would have helped create drama. That would be drama NOT at them. Scum don't always have to be on separate wagons. In fact with the way this game is going and no one suspecting them .

Furthermore the FA_Q2 hammer makes sense because the counter is Fire Assassin. For that first VC I don't think scum had a choice.

2) Absolutely. Infinity observed a game where I was scum with Karnos. We then made neo!Karnos look so damn good that the Mason Recruiter recruited him. Them claiming odd night cop and then both something smart and infinity's minor spat today feels like a repeat of this so fucking hard. Then Shadowstep posts today asking no more questions of infinity and just goes can we lynch me already.

@Titus - Except I am a PR now dammit. My one shot fucking refunds. Look at the first post.

Scum want me gone because I can literally confirm or deny what someone is claiming in thread.

And if odd night cop with a vig made it past the review board I will seriously wonder about that review board's decision here.

@Farside22 -- No. It is not ONLY because of Fire's claim. Fire's claim should be plenty though.

It doesn't make fucking sense that a vig hasn't shot yet. None. Zero. I can understand people thinking I am an idiot. Hell if that is what causes town to lose I am sorry. But what I do not understand is if we mislynch today and it is not me and Fire Assassin is town we lose.

Furthermore Fire Assassin has pretty much said they will only vote me making me in essence goddamn hated.

[MathBlade]

@Fire -- Would you call your hand the best thing since sliced bread?

[MathBlade]

Can I queue an action? If so, I call Fire effective 1 minute before folding would otherwise be required.

Math, I am not voting Fire. Letscum sort out the PRs. Infinity being bp is good.

Is Smart town? What are your reads?

Why the fuck are you not answering my question about why you checked?

Why are you asking me a question I have stated before many times?

Like what about Titus's ISO is town? Someone tell me because Titus as a town shouts for the moon. This feels like prod dodging.