Wake's Massive Role Madness - Game Over

[MathBlade]

I feel so bad that we've stopped scumhunting for most of the game.

VOTE: Thor665

Give him a chance to claim though k?

Lol wow. IMHO if Thor flips town or blue Cookie Bakers is buddying to the confirmed scum or SK so fucking hard. Like if DGB is SK they likely have a BP so a vig may not even work and instead you direct on someone who may not even be guilty. Wtf Titus.

[Elyse]

OK READING NOW

[RachMarie]

@ thor

what about my scenario that Egg blabbed to his red buddies and red shot at me with skybird taking the bullet?

[Thor665]

@ thor

what about my scenario that Egg blabbed to his red buddies and red shot at me with skybird taking the bullet?

I don't see what me buying into or opposing that theory would do to change any reads I have.
Could it have happened? Sure.
Did it? Dunno.
Does it matter? Not really.

[MathBlade]

@Shaziro,

Math and Lapsa seem like good options.

I am a horrible option. I already crumbed what I am many times. If people can't see it is their stupidity. I suggest no one visit me except scum. I have my supply of apples.

[Thor665]

Like, if we could mod confirm that happened right this second, it wouldn't point us at anything - so it doesn't matter.

[Cookie Bakers]

@Math, Why wouldn't Thor flip red? Or would a red flip not be buddying the SK?

@Thor, Redirector is impossible. I am waiting on Rachmarie to weigh in on your claim.

[Cookie Bakers]

@Shaziro,

Math and Lapsa seem like good options.

I am a horrible option. I already crumbed what I am many times. If people can't see it is their stupidity. I suggest no one visit me except scum. I have my supply of apples.

You seem to want to die. You don't want doctor heals or cops.

Do you have any useful feedback for us or are you AtEing?

[MathBlade]

Oh hey ... someone finally woke Wake. *grumbles about being up late waiting for the game to open*.

Why the hell wouldn't ninja scum shoot Drixx?

I mean we keep getting guilties and that's insane. Yet, zero effort to shoot Drixx...by either team? They could have blocked boem and shot Drixx?

And here comes the "Why isn't the doc dead?" speculation. I posit two probable reasons:

1.) I literally told a hood where I am sure at least one of them is scum that the best play is to leave me alive and let town paranoia result in a lynch on me when I don't turn up dead. Someone's playing straight out of my playbook.

2.) Doctors have to identify the most likely kill targets, and in this game I have only one apparent success, since people seem to believe Lapsa is town, for no strong reasons that I can see. If Lapsa ends up being scum, then I probably have two saves which literally makes my net contribution thus far like 1/2 of a mislynch at the steady 3-4 KPN. I need to get another save or two to actually have a role utility at all. Why kill me unless I start getting preternaturally good at predicting the deaths? Further, I now have really obvious save targets in Boem and CB, which leaves it pretty easy to shoot around my save unless I move off them.

For the record, I've been on Boem the last two nights and since all nights except one had 4 KPN, it seems somewhat reasonable to assume I saved him. Can't be sure till we see the post game mess of actions though.

Im beginning to have serious doubts about thor

Math I go back and forth on

Boem I think he is kosher

Heb really has not been active would be a good vig shot

I believe drixx's doc claim unless you can show me otherwise

I don't doubt their roles. I doubt why they have not been shot.

If they are scum, they are scum variants of roles.

Given MP's flip, Boem can really only be blue.

Titus is the master of getting towns to implode when they are in strong position ... and is now casting doubt on people she has been expressing trust about.

Titus is elsewhere complaining about having 3 caught scum, but feels the need to move Boem and/or myself out of probtown and into questionable territory because...?

Starting to make me paranoid Titus.

Most likely explanation is that DGB is SK after all and in that case we should lynch her in order to reduce anti-town killpower.

We should roleblock DGB. This would confirm a town blocker. Then vig them.

If we think DGB is the SK (and the crisscross of info seems to back up that premise), why not kill her today and ensure beyond any doubt that the KPN goes down by one? There are a myriad of modifiers she might have if she's II, given how big and complex this game is and how hard an SK wincon would be. SKs in games like this can be absurdly powerful, and even supposing we have a town roleblocker (who isn't speaking up) ... that might not stop her killing tonight.

In what universe does it make sense to put a roleblock on the person most likely to have some combination of abilities that could bypass that, given how SKs in large complex normals are given extra utility to have a better chance to make it through? There's a very small possible utility in that someone could confirm they can roleblock ... but that wouldn't hand us a townie presuming it works and DGB is indeed SK. We would simply know that person can roleblock.

There's a larger possibility space where that plan ends up with another dead townie tonight. Furthermore, it's almost a

GIVEN

that SK will have some level of kill protection, so a vig shot on them is probably a waste. They need to be lynched.

And Titus you are smart enough to realize these things, so why on EARTH are you advancing a bad plan?

I am tempted to just outright state my guilty given we're finding scum faster than we can kill them.

There was no point at all in being coy about someone who is actively posting elsewhere but not in this game.

@RM/Shaz/Klingon, Who should I check?

Also Math is almost practically confirmed not red.

Not that you asked me, but if you can get anything useful out of checking my neighborhood you should. I have no idea why anyone has given serrapaladin a town read, for example. And your paranoia of me earlier suggests perhaps you should check me. It will only tell you what is as obvious as the nose on my face: I'm a town doctor/neighbor. I'll come up with no gun because I have to carry a lot of medical equipment in my bag to save people. Believe me... if I could fit a gun in there, that would make life easy. Imagine a doctor who both saves the target and kills the culprit. Yeah ... that would be RAD!

GMTA Drixx. GMFTA. Here is an apple.

Pedit: Quit asking me questions while reading people will get there when I do.

[MathBlade]

Furthermore, YOU LOVE DELAYED GUILTIES FOR SCUMHUNTING. Why would you tell me there's no point in being coy about a guilty?

It depends on when they are delayed until. This looks like it is to save DGB:

[Cookie Bakers]

@Thor, Can you do a read list?

[MathBlade]

Ok, I will try a different approach.

You say DGB can get a kill off.
If she does, a townroleblocker claims and let's us reassess our premises.

Blocking DGB, vigging Hebi and lynching Thor is the only way I can see to contain all 3 scum.

Or we can lynch DGB roleblock Thor and vig heavy. However I don't see a claim for Thor yet you are advocating killing them over DGB because....

The guilty on DGB is a fuck ton stronger than Thor having a gun.

[MathBlade]

I am NOT down with lynching DGB given Drixx's shading of us since go.

Let me get this straight:

You oppose RBing Thor because Thor's buddy could do the kill.
Lynching Thor has the same problem.

Drixx's and my suspicion of you doesn't alter DGB's alignment.

[Drixx]

I think the same thing I've thought since I evaluated things. We should take out the very probable SK DGB who almost certainly has some form of BP protection and due to the investigative results we have we can be fairly certain has some investigation immunity of some sort too. That second bit reinforces the probability of her being scum. That's the optimal path for a town win. It takes away 1 KPN pressure from us permanently.

It's possible that all the crap you are speculating but have no actual evidence to support could all work out and if all of that speculation magically happened to be true, we could maybe edge out a slightly more optimal play ... but there are so many failure points that it's just laughable. Allow me to quote from a story written in the fanfiction world but intended to be a primer for rational thought. This quote is from

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

, which serves as a great primer for spending time on lesswrong.com working on recognizing and overcoming cognitive biases. This particular quote comes from hpmor.com/chapter/24

"

That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life.

Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two.

Draco couldn't even find words to describe the sheer gargantuan unworkability of Harry's master plan.

But it was just the sort of mistake you would make if you didn't have any mentors and thought you were clever and had learned about plotting by watching plays.

"

In short: your proposed course of action requires far too many things to "happen" to be right to pass the simplicity test. You need too many speculations to be correct and the risk of failing is that the SK gets one or two more kills in while neither scum team gets eliminated.

What I'm proposing is based solidly on what we actually know to be true and has a very high chance to permanently remove 1 KPN from our worries, but lacks a stronger upside. It also doesn't require nearly so many suppositions, nor suppositions that aren't really supported by anything or agreed upon by other town reads. Basically everyone agrees that an SK in a super large role madness game is going to have significant role utility. I believe the expectation of BP in some form is

universal

which means killing DGB any way other than lynch isn't going to work. That alone breaks your plan. Add to that the evidence we have that DGB possesses some form if II, and the only real thing that my argument needs to "happen" to be correct is DGB having some role utility ability to avoid being role blocked.

Meanwhile, I lost count of the number of things you need to "happen", but it's at least 5 or 6 things we don't have evidence for.

I hope coming at it from another angle helps. We want the same thing, except you want to try and hit a grand slam and hope all your speculation turns out correct, while I'm happy to hit a single RBI and take the significant win probability increase rather than gamble with so many variables unaccountable.


P-Edit: What does GMTA and GMTFA stand for?

[boring]

Really, truly, I don't get why we're not lynching someone who is absolutely confirmed to be killing us off over someone who may or may not be faking a reasonable claim to be gun-wielding.

[MathBlade]

Work break super short today. Way too many posts to catch up on. Computer is at home so can't update chart yet guys.

Looks like my Valhalla crumbing blue theory was off based on flips. Like Skelda as scum. If DGB scum they are opposite alignments based on D2 VCA.

Haven't read anything in thread today but since Valhalla is town Skelda likely blue for hopping on CC's wagon off to DGB then back onto CC towards end.

Suspect Titus + DGB as red.

VOTE: Skelda

Titus outed Map Wolf as guilty and he flipped red scum. You're not making any sense.

Choo choo all aboard the Titus bus train. Titus rarely busses as scum but when she does she does it effectively. Are you seriously expecting me to believe Titus has 4 "guilties " in a row? A shit ton of people have flipped JoAT.

[MathBlade]

Math doesn't appear to be reading anymore, just looking at votes.

I do read. When I have time I do VCA. Titus knows this.

[Cookie Bakers]

I hope coming at it from another angle helps. We want the same thing, except you want to try and hit a grand slam and hope all your speculation turns out correct, while I'm happy to hit a single RBI and take the significant win probability increase rather than gamble with so many variables unaccountable.

I agree on the risk aversion sentiment.

The points of failure I disagree on. If you're town, we define failure VERY differently. I will also comment more on why I played this the way I did post decision on lynch.

With the understanding that if you are town you prefer DGB, can you comment on Thor's claim and it's likelihood of being town?

[Cookie Bakers]

Math doesn't appear to be reading anymore, just looking at votes.

I do read. When I have time I do VCA. Titus knows this.

VCA is shit with guilties. We've been playing follow the cops.

[MathBlade]

Math doesn't appear to be reading anymore, just looking at votes.

Not even that... I think she's just all whatever Cookie Bakers is for, I'm against.

Still if Math keeps doing things like ignoring two guilties, that's like policy lynch level.

I said I hadn't fucking read! That was meant for the Shaziro PT and in a hurry I put it in here.

VOTE: Dipping Goofball

Trying to get your thoughts out with day starting while at work is not a policy lynch offense. Do I want to die? Yes. Do I want to die via policy? Not really. If you think I am scum then make a damn case.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Dripping Goofball

[MathBlade]

Hi I never got to post yesterday and have class and a shitton of work to do so I probably won't be able to tonight either

BUT

I will definitely be able to catch up by Friday

Elyse, we're debating between which guilty to lynch anyway.

DGB as SK

or Thor has a gun.

This shouldn't be a debate. The latter is a maybe and the first is absolute.

[Cookie Bakers]

Work break super short today. Way too many posts to catch up on. Computer is at home so can't update chart yet guys.

Looks like my Valhalla crumbing blue theory was off based on flips. Like Skelda as scum. If DGB scum they are opposite alignments based on D2 VCA.

Haven't read anything in thread today but since Valhalla is town Skelda likely blue for hopping on CC's wagon off to DGB then back onto CC towards end.

Suspect Titus + DGB as red.

VOTE: Skelda

Titus outed Map Wolf as guilty and he flipped red scum. You're not making any sense.

Choo choo all aboard the Titus bus train. Titus rarely busses as scum but when she does she does it effectively. Are you seriously expecting me to believe Titus has 4 "guilties " in a row? A shit ton of people have flipped JoAT.

So you're arguing that I am red scum that eliminated my neighbor for shits and giggles?

Plus my results have been

Guilty - CCC
Inno - Transcend
Guilty - Map
Guilty - Thor

That's not 4 guilties in a row.

[Shaziro]

CB I'm gonna stick to sheepin' you. When we get the flip today, I can sit back and do the math that night to figure out what the flip means, but right now I can't do much.

[MathBlade]

Nah, it should be roleblock DGB. We know she CAN be roleblocked.

We don't know if Thor can be.

Lol every normal role can be roleblocked. Strong willed is a variant.