Open 651: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[Sir Bastion]

Also I think this post puts me at the top of the next page and I want that at least once so whooooooooo!

[lilith2013]

Votecount 3.002

No change in VC.

Searching for a replacement for Hebee Inc.

Not Voting [8]

kyndy101, Lycanfire, superbowl9, Hebee Inc, Raskolnikov, shaddowez, ironstove, Sir Bastion

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2016-09-08 11:15:00)

pagetop count: Lilith 9| Vedith 4 | light_ganski 3 | ironstove 2 | shaddowez 2 | kyndy101 2 | HighHopes 2 | NJAC 2 | Sir Bastion 1 | Hebee Inc 1

[superbowl9]

If we shouldn't lunch him, who do you propose?

I literally made a list of who I would lynch and in what order
"Would lynch hebee>kyndy>stove>lycan today (kyndy over stove because she's been lurking)."


On a no lynch
If lycan is bodyguard and protects shaddow then they either confirm lycan or narrow lynch pool by night killing someone else.
If lycan is vig and uses his shot we'd risk losing anyways so why not just lynch (if we flip a scum then lycan can shoot and confirm(would scum kill prevent him from shooting?)).
If lycan doesn't shoot then scum can just kill shaddow and we get nothing
If lycan's scum then scum just kills shaddow and we get nothing

So bascially whether we nl or not depends on which role lycan has.
Right?

[superbowl9]

Even if Lycan is bodyguard and scum have JOAT, worst thign that happens is we lose shaddow so no reason not to nl

[ironstove]

I am pretty sure heebee is town and if we lynch him today, we are going to lose.

[kyndy101]

If we shouldn't lunch him, who do you propose?

I literally made a list of who I would lynch and in what order
"Would lynch hebee>kyndy>stove>lycan today (kyndy over stove because she's been lurking)."


On a no lynch
If lycan is bodyguard and protects shaddow then they either confirm lycan or narrow lynch pool by night killing someone else.
If lycan is vig and uses his shot we'd risk losing anyways so why not just lynch (if we flip a scum then lycan can shoot and confirm(would scum kill prevent him from shooting?)).
If lycan doesn't shoot then scum can just kill shaddow and we get nothing
If lycan's scum then scum just kills shaddow and we get nothing

So bascially whether we nl or not depends on which role lycan has.
Right?

Oh, sorry XD
I guess I missed it

As to the rest of your post, I guess? But why isn't Lycan claiming one or the other? The fact that he claimed a power role already got the scumteam's attention, assuming he isn't lying. But if Lycan is part of the scum team, he would know what role to take if he were to fake claim in order to not get a counter claim- unless scum doesn't know what the other role is yet.
The fact that he claimed a PR but won't tell us which really makes me doubt he is a PR at all, unless he is a scum PR.

[kyndy101]

At this point, his withholding of this information seems like cautious scum to me

[ironstove]

It was already mentioned, but we have no idea if we have another PR, but mafia would know this information so it's very easy to fake a claim.

We lost 3 PRs already (tracker, role cop, role blocker), so what are the chances we have a 4th? I'm not sure.

So it all boils down to whether or not to believe in lycan's claim regardless of what he claims because we have no way to verify this information, but with that said, if we do decide to believe in his claim and he is mafia, this pretty much assures we lose the game.

I want other people's thoughts on this.

[lilith2013]

Genji replaces Hebee Inc. Thank you!

[Genji]

Hello guys, Ill start doing catch up soon.

[Genji]

I am reading various things on the setup mechanics and all. It seems though three dead power roles means that we don't have anymore though.
Since every additional power role adds more power to the town, with assumed starting power of zero, any power role claims now are scum claims essentially.

@Mod The setup is a little vague I guess in terms of this, does town start with 0 power roles if scum do not take any power?

[Genji]

Ohh retract that question found the answer in the wiki page:

The

town has two roles to start

, resulting in a maximum of five town roles randomly selected from the following

Its likely possible that town has maybe 1-2 more though?

I have to do some digging and then ISOs of players.

[Genji]

So I accidentally revealed it in my last post so I might as well full claim it too:
I am a vanilla townie, no power role here.

Also since this MYLO i highly suggest we take our time on this one.
My quick skim tells me I need to highly examine Superbowl and Rask.

[ironstove]

Rask, sir basion, and superbowl, can you please give me a list of your reads on the players still in the game?

[ironstove]

Actually, just give me your scum reads.

[ironstove]

Fuck everything I just said actually. Let's just lynch superbowl

VOTE: superbowl

Let's do this boys.

[ironstove]

Before people freak out that I'm trying to lynch superbowl who I marked earlier as my strongest town read, the indication by verdeth and genji to re-examine super made me do another re-read of this thread, and after ISOing him, kyndy, bastion, and rask, I decided to change my mind about superbowl.

[Lycanfire]

Did that read "I'd lynch Vedith" to you?

Did you want me to explain why three people were voting someone else?

sure does you scumread him. who else would you want to lynch if not for your scumreads? the magical scum faery?

shouldn't sora have been part of your case if your two scumreads are voting him? if you do, it looks like a defense., but that's only bad if the people you are pressing are town i couldn't help but notice the omission of something that would have fallen perfectly into your case.

When he asks what the interaction is but references it two lines earlier
It's almost like he wants to paint me as scum but doesn't even bother reading his own posts

i wanted you to make it clear that that was the post you were talking about, not some interaction outside hebee's post. i really hated hebee's interactions with sora, as well as yours with hebee because it felt like both of you were trying to be judgmental without doing anything to get in the way of the wagon. in fact hebee immediately decides to vote by double post (7 minutes delay), perhaps realizing he took too strong a stance to begin with. there seems to be a conflict here and there can only be conflict if the posts were falsified

Is the /votes highhopes part supposed to contradict something else here?

highhopes wanted hebee dead. why did you say you were okay with a wagon on his scumread but then vote highhopes at the end of the post? isn't that a contradiction?

VCA is a great way to go, as we can clearly see here kyndy is on both wagons AND put both to L-1 and is therefore 1000% scum, shaddow's not voting on anything therefore he's scum, and Bastion's on both so there's the third. Wow it was that easy to nail down the scumteam.

either you think im a scumfucker and case me (which you aren't) or you work with me. discrediting my VCA and doing in its place, nothing, simply shows that you don't want to do shit for the town

hebee>kyndy>stove>lycan today (kyndy over stove because she's been lurking)

i would bus harder. you know it's a competition between you and ironstove as to who can look the most town right? you have one day to decide.

Ironstove, why should we believe you are vig / bodyguard? Have you hinted at this prior to today and I just haven't noticed?

he skipped responding to my enquiry about night 1.

either i did not shoot someone, i did shoot someone and they were BP or i protected someone and they weren't killed. in only one scenario is it worthwhile to hardclaim- with scum taking 3 powers we can conclude at this point that there was no BP for me to shoot simply because bulletproof/rolecop are trash modifications. neither worth giving town a PR. therefore there was no traitor BP to shoot as they were surely recruited.

I am pretty sure heebee is town and if we lynch him today, we are going to lose.

yeah with an iso like that who could blame you

are you even trying?

At this point, his withholding of this information seems like cautious scum to me

there's no argument i can give you that can't be cooked down into WIFOM. you can't know i'm telling the truth because i haven't done anything to prove it.

if it makes you feel better, i prodded light about PR in my post 266 with the silly question that scum may have taken no power at all, and accepting vedith's claim as second PR (shadow conf #1) was silly for her, when she could have been second PR. fmpov i was PR #4 which meant scum had to have taken two powers or someone (light, in my mind) was lying. true someone as third PR may not think it's strange at all for scum to take a power. ask yourself how the fourth PR would feel.

if we do decide to believe in his claim and he is mafia, this pretty much assures we lose the game.

you seem more concerned with my alignment than your ability to lynch scum today. if we were to lynch a partner of scum!lycan today, i would be given on a platter. that's not at all losing the game.

i wasn't joking around in 651/when i said "tell me what your sweet scumteam is "

you're free to include me in it, but it's troublesome that you've ignored me and have continued to make this show all about me. i'm actually really shy, you know?

My quick skim tells me I need to highly examine Superbowl and Rask.

keep in mind there is no bad answer: what order are you reading the thread in?

Fuck everything I just said actually. Let's just lynch superbowl

VOTE: superbowl

Let's do this boys.

take notes superbowl, this guy isn't fucking around.

[Sir Bastion]

It was already mentioned, but we have no idea if we have another PR, but mafia would know this information so it's very easy to fake a claim.

We lost 3 PRs already (tracker, role cop, role blocker), so what are the chances we have a 4th? I'm not sure.

So it all boils down to whether or not to believe in lycan's claim regardless of what he claims because we have no way to verify this information, but with that said, if we do decide to believe in his claim and he is mafia, this pretty much assures we lose the game.

I want other people's thoughts on this.

he's pretty much spelt out the shameful story in his most recent post (I think we are at the point that everyone should be able put it together easily from just that post alone), I believe he's town because scum would have opted for sympathy by crying how they made incredibly stupid mistakes or they would have worked out some way to fake it so it wasn't a mistake. Whats oozing from lycan right now is pure unfiltered embarrassment, he's softclaiming because if he outright told the truth he'd be at risk of being quicklynched due to his incredibly poor judgement and misuse of his powers.

Actually, just give me your scum reads.

You or kyndy, which is depressing because these are the same scum reads I had for the most of day 1 (sora instead of you, but same slot) which really shows how little progress has been made.

Both Rask and Soupbowl have had posts *today* that feel like genuine town thinking to me, they've both said things that scum wouldnt want on towns mind today. Which is a problem because Genji is a big unknown and there is at least 1 scum among them. if I had to be pushed I guess soupbowl but that's only a fraction based on one quote being cut which looked misleading but honestly might have been trying to save space.

Reality is I'd need to see how Genji comes into this game to weigh up those 3.

But in the meantime I'd love to talk more about people who do rustle my jimmies

like you

Before people freak out that I'm trying to lynch superbowl who I marked earlier as my strongest town read, the indication by verdeth and genji to re-examine super made me do another re-read of this thread, and after ISOing him, kyndy, bastion, and rask, I decided to change my mind about superbowl.

what about a case?

you re-read him but didnt think to jot down what it is in the re-read that set you off or looked scummy?

Did you read him in iso on his own or in combination with other players?

[ironstove]

Bastion confirmed as second mafia.

[ironstove]

Superbowl, bastion, and not sure about the last....

Kyndy looks so easy, but there is some friction between her and superbowl, I understand mafia also had day chat so it could have been planned out. Not sure who the third would be if it isn't kyndy, could be rask, but I haven't been able to read him as scum.

[superbowl9]

sure does you scumread him. who else would you want to lynch if not for your scumreads? the magical scum faery?

shouldn't sora have been part of your case if your two scumreads are voting him? if you do, it looks like a defense., but that's only bad if the people you are pressing are town i couldn't help but notice the omission of something that would have fallen perfectly into your case.

"I'm way too conflicted"

"I need him to post more"

"My gut says believe the claim"

I think what might be throwing you off on the understanding here is this line:
"I still think we should lynch NJAC more than Vedith"
This does not mean that I think we should still lynch vedith, kinda more phrasing here. Basically Vedith was a null read at that point.

As for your other point that post was meant to be solely about vedith, not a reads list. Discussing anything else would have made the post even longer than it already was anyways.

highhopes wanted hebee dead. why did you say you were okay with a wagon on his scumread but then vote highhopes at the end of the post? isn't that a contradiction?

Bussing exists. Also I was scumreading both of them at the time.

either you think im a scumfucker and case me (which you aren't) or you work with me. discrediting my VCA and doing in its place, nothing, simply shows that you don't want to do shit for the town

So if I think you're town what you want me to do is agree with your case on me? Discrediting your case on me/showing how VCA is flawed so that other people don't follow flawed reasoning sounds like the better option to me.

I'm not sure if you're scum or not. Pretty much been null reading you the whole game, at this point just waiting to see what happens with your claim tonight. At this point it would not be pro-town to try to lynch you unless I was 100% sure you were scum because of your claim. You seem to realize this too:

you seem more concerned with my alignment than your ability to lynch scum today. if we were to lynch a partner of scum!lycan today, i would be given on a platter. that's not at all losing the game.

i would bus harder. you know it's a competition between you and ironstove as to who can look the most town right? you have one day to decide.

take notes superbowl, this guy isn't fucking around.

Oh great so now if I scumread stove I must be scum right
(why is there no "framed" smiley)

Naw fuck that new lynch order is genji>stove>kyndy>lycan

Case on stove is what bastion said plus no explanation omgus in 719, and having someone who just says fuck it and votes for no reason isnt someone I want in lylo.

[ironstove]

Hmm, normally I'd say GFY, but sure I'll entertain my scum reads and see how they respond. Only posting on super for now, I'll collect my bastion case later.

lol, @ superbowl moving me up his lynch list immediately as a response to my vote on him in order to prepare for his justification of putting a lynch on me later.

The guy thought he had me pocketed.

Case 1: 177

@NJAC: Can you please give reads of some sort? I'd love to see who you consider to be the prime suspect now, if you don't mind.

Yep, I was going to give my reads after commenting on some recent posts.

A bit of patience please

.

Leaning scum: Sora, superbowl.
Null: light, kindy, Lycan, everyone else
Leaning town: Bastian, Vedith, shadow

This is why I don't just use my vote to wagon. By placing my vote on you (combined with some other people beginning to scumread you) you provide this reaction, which I can only see as a jumpy/nervous reaction lash-out against sora, along with a naked reads list.

Take a guess as to where the people who pushed/scumread NJAC go in his reads list. Very OMGUS-like, once again indicating nervousness. Maybe if you had some reasoning as to why you're reading people this way I would be able to dismiss this initial impression, but you haven't provided me with anything to say otherwise.

@NJAC are you still nullreading kyndy?

This rubs me the wrong way. He calls out NJAC for saying a thorough post of reads is coming up and to give him time, but never calls out kyndy for making the same type of posts ever in this entire game... This to me indicates that he's not really consistent in how he is scum reading the two. Why not?

I would have overlooked this, but the guy actually HIGHLIGHTED NJAC saying he's making a post as his reason for a scum read, why the contradiction with another player in the game doing the exact same thing?

Alright, long post incoming including responses and reads

I'm making a post, but also have to work so I'll post later

(Will provide lengthy reasoning tomorrow)

He reads through all of her posts and writes this:

I'm nulltown on kyndy after looking at her early game interactions.

I also like lycan but want him to post more.

I'd lynch either hydra rn, assuming the next hebi post is non-defense/bad defense.
So for now VOTE: HighHopes
Idk if I've said my case on the hydras before but I'm too tired rn.

And she continues on....

ACH sorry guys gotta catch up it was a really stressful day today

BLUH

I guess I'll try to post something more thoughtful than that in the morning XD Apparently I can't get names right tonight

I can understand overlooking this if she's a strong town read, but she's not. And on top of that, he applies 0 pressure onto her for behavior he was calling out as scummy.

Case 2:

If you really examine his scum reads on people, he's actually not saying anything factual. Everything is opinion, wifom, and generally could be said about anyone. Saying he feels someone is nervous, angry, salty, etc... etc... These are all opinions, they're not facts, giving opinions like this is usually what mafia do when trying to project something, some sort of agenda to make other people FOS the player.

I felt that vedith was

a little too jumpy around 64, and at first I thought that his confidence, which kind of contrasts the (imo) nervousness

shown in that area, was also a sign of scum (makes sense to me since townies have less info and thus are less likely to be decisive). Bastion's post has made me want to lynch vedith less because his argument about the posting volume makes sense (vedith has the most posts so far), but still leaves me with vedith as my prime scumspect (

although I think NJAC is the best lynch option atm im not sure about his alignment

).

Add onto that our hero lycanfire who came in and messed with vedith a bit and wagoned him for all of 2 seconds.

At first I didn't really see much of worth from this interaction, but then vedith posted150, which screamed salty at me when I first looked at it.

Vedith can't resist taking a jab at lycan because he's thoroughly spooked by him (

which I would read as nervous scum poking at something that's provided really nothing content-wise (seriously))

.

This is why I don't just use my vote to wagon. By placing my vote on you (combined with some other people beginning to scumread you) you provide this reaction,

which I can only see as a jumpy/nervous reaction lash-out against sora, along with a naked reads list.

Take a guess as to where the people who pushed/scumread NJAC go in his reads list. Very OMGUS-like,

once again indicating nervousness

. Maybe if you had some reasoning as to why you're reading people this way I would be able to dismiss this initial impression, but you haven't provided me with anything to say otherwise.

This one I find funny that he would call someone's read list as naked

Case 3: [post]391[/[post]

The interesting switch to heebee, the guy went from fos'ing two PRs (verdeth, highhopes) doesn't really how any indication that he's hard scum reading heebee... Then out of the blue the guy flips over to heebee once highhopes and verdeth are confirmed PRs, if you ISO his posts, he never quotes or directly interrogates heebee ONCE. LOL OK. And suddenly this guy transformed into your top scum read? WTF?

I wasn't really questioning this until genji joined, his entrance seems really towny so far, and I honestly was reading heebee when I first came into this game as null to bad town, so it really surprised me that he would be someone's top scum read.

Finally:

Even if Lycan is bodyguard and scum have JOAT,

worst thign that happens is we lose shaddow so no reason not to nl

This guy is scum, the end.

[ironstove]

Guys, I'm gonna go do some stuff somewhere at sometime, I'll make a post saying nothing later.

[ironstove]

Alright, I'll redact the last post about the no lynch being scummy, HOWEVER:

I think JOAT in this situation does not grant mafia a double kill.

It's very interesting that superbowl knew this mechanic and didn't clarify the situation when rask was asking about it earlier.

JOAT for 1-shot strongman/ninja means you can either overcome the bodyguard or not be followed by the tracker.

Mod, is this correct? Does having JOAT as a role still limit them to one night kill?

If that's the case, I'm not sure JOAT would have been drafted. It's not nearly as strong as I initially thought.

If lycan is a PR, he's a 5th PR because we already have (IC, role block, role cop, and tracker)..

Mafia definitely picked up daytalk and recruit, but that leaves JOAT, BP, and role cop in the pool. I think BP is not that strong, but I can maybe see role cop/JOAT but the cons of giving town another PR would outweigh having it IMO.

If that's the case, it kind of sus lycan again.

I find it really, REALLY interesting now that superbowl knew this is how the mechanic works and STILL didn't correct rask or call out lycan on this