Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Accountant]

Hi, I’m Accountant, your friendly neighbourhood Inexperience-Challenged player, or IC. This means that I have a few games under my belt, so I know the ins and outs of mafia and can show you the ropes. For those of you who hate reading long rants, or have read a similar post already, check out the link:
A Beginner’s Guide to Being Awesome At Mafia
Anyway, as the IC, it’s my job to teach you theory concepts, which means I will never lie about theory questions. Ever.
Before we start the game proper, I’d like to cover a few key concepts.

Hammering, Lynching and L-1

When the number of votes on a player exceeds half the number of players for that game, that player is lynched

instantly

and the Day ends. For example, we have 9 players. If that means the hammer is 5, so if there were to be 5 votes on someone, that player would be lynched. Do not recklessly hammer, especially early in the game, or you’ll risk accidentally lynching town members and cutting short discussion time.
The concept of L-X is used to indicate how many votes a player is to hammer. L-1 means 1 vote to hammer, L-2 means 2 votes to hammer and so forth. So for this game, if someone were to get 4 votes, they would be at L-1. When you place the vote that puts someone at L-1(for example, if someone has 3 votes and you’re putting the 4th vote down, with a hammer of 5), you should usually announce it with a statement like “He’s at L-1”, so people don’t accidentally hammer. Even more importantly, it means that mafia can’t hammer a town member and then claim ignorance the next day.
If someone is at L-1 and you want to hammer him, you should usually state “intent to hammer”, which means “I want to lynch you”. When you do this, you can also ask for a role claim. That way, if the player is a power role being mislynched, he can claim before you place the hammering vote, and thus save himself.

LyLo

LyLo is the shortened form of a phrase which means “lynch or lose”. The simplest form of LyLo is 3 players, 2 of whom are vanilla townies and the last being a mafia goon. Then, it’s easy to see that if they do not lynch, the mafia goon will kill one of them at night, stalemating the lynch the next day, and killing the last town member on Night 2 – although the mod will usually recognize this and end the game early instead of dragging it out.
When town is in LyLo, it’s important not to carelessly vote like you would on any other day, because of the potential for a mafia coordinated hammer(a “quickhammer”, happening before anyone else can react). Let’s say we have LyLo with 3 Vanilla Townies and 2 Mafia Goons. One of the vanilla townie carelessly puts his vote on another VT. This allows the two mafia goons to instantly rush in and simultaneously vote that VT, bringing his vote count to 3 in a game of 5 players, which is a hammer and loss for the town.
It’s good practice to try to recognize LyLo situations when you see them, but in Newbie games a more experienced player will usually point out that it’s LyLo and caution people from recklessly voting. Learning how to deal with LyLo is a very important part of playing mafia, and it comes up more often than you might think.

RVS

We are currently in the RVS, or Random Voting Stage. As none of us has any idea who is mafia(well, except the mafia members themselves, but they’re hardly going to admit it), we’re mostly poking around and slinging votes like hot curry at a food fight, trying to provoke reactions, start a discussion and basically probe around to try and determine player’s alignments.
As it is the

Random

Voting Stage, it’s common for players to vote for very silly reasons, such as “your avatar is ugly” or “your username has too many numbers in it”. Don’t worry, they don’t have a grudge against you or anything. It’s just part of RVS. Without RVS, it would be a lot harder to get the game moving.

Conclusion

Thank you for joining this newbie game, and I hope that all of us will have fun playing, win or lose. If you have any questions at all, feel free to ask me. I’m an IC, so it’s my job to be active and respond to questions from newer players. I live in Singapore, which makes my timezone GMT+8, so don’t be surprised if I answer in the middle of the night or appear to be inactive at high noon(I’m probably sleeping).

Have fun and good luck!

- Accountant

[Accountant]

VOTE: Morning Tweet

Down with Twitter! All hail Instagram!

[Accountant]

How did you go an entire game without getting voted? o.o

[Accountant]

How did you go an entire game without getting voted? o.o

First I was lucky, then I was townread, then the three remaining townies wanted each other's heads, making me the only mutual townread.

Any prior experience with mafia other than that one game? Also: were you scum that game? The way you phrased it ("three remaining townies") made it seem like you were.

[Accountant]

Good to know. I get so used to assuming that all newbies are actually new at mafia that when I see an obvtown newbie I often forget to consider the possibility that I'm being played.

[Accountant]

iirc, they got nominated for a scummy by titus b/c they played so well

Transcend, what was the intention or point you were trying to made when you wrote this post?

@WeCanSimplyBeOurselves: What do you think about Morning Tweet? Is she someone to be extra paranoid about because she's apparently a really good scum player who got nominated for a scummy on her first game? Or do you think we should treat her like any other player?

[Accountant]

While it's true that spamming walls of text or feeding in random factoids every other post would indeed be pretty anti-town, I do not think Morning Tweet's information had been that overwhelming. Do you find their information confusing? What part don't you understand?

[Accountant]

As good a vote as any at this stage. I do think overthinking anyone at this stage is more likely to do harm than good. Best to keep our minds open to everyone.

I like this.

[Accountant]

Nah I'm not confused about anything they said per say... it's mainly more that I dunno why they mentioned about their last game... like, as a general rule I think it's best to not talk about past games without a good reason.

Mafia is a game about understanding and analyzing people. The aim of the game is to look at someone's posting and reverse-engineer it to figure out what sort of person they are like. From there, we can decide if they would be more likely to act like this as town or scum.

One good source of information about a person is their past games, so it makes sense to look at someone's previous play to get a better understanding of them as a person, with the knowledge of what their alignment was that game. While we should be careful to avoid slavishly relying on only that information, there's no doubt that it can be a very useful scumhunting tool if used appropriately.

@Transcend: By getting reads "really quickly", do you mean that im the sense of "on page 2" or "in just a quick skim, without the need for deeper analysis"?

[Accountant]

What makes you think Char is probably scum? He's only made two posts, both in the RVS. He has a questionable grasp on evolution, but other than that, he hasn't been any more off-topic or diversionary than anyone else.

This post makes two assumptions:

1) That an RVS post can't be indicative of scumminess.

2) That Transcend's reason for scumreading Charloux is due to Charloux being off-topic or diversionary.

Is it possible to explain why you made these assumptions, and the reasoning behind them?

[Accountant]

@norska gut

@acc latter

I have an issue with this. You are presumably scumreading Charloux off the basis of her two posts(and I think I have an inkling about why). However, you posted after them without any mention of Charloux at all. This signals to me that you read the posts but didn't find them significant. In fact, you didn't mention any reads at all.

However, after a short break in posting, you came back and told us that so-and-so were town, and Charloux were scum. This signals to me that you did

not

pick this up as a gut read on a skim, but rather on a re-read.

Can you explain this discrepancy?

[Accountant]

I see.

[Accountant]

I agree that looking at someone's previous play is a good way to do that... but when it's coming directly from the player themselves and all we have is their word to go by then we can only really trust them if they already happen to be town--which kind of makes it redundantly NAI.

But it's not! We can go to Morning Tweet's game and examine her scumplay for ourselves, for instance.

[Accountant]

This is more personality indicative rather than alignment indicative. From this i can say that his scum-play is something like:
1)Trying to forget he is scum
2)Playing like he is town.

This isn't exactly a startling revelation - in fact, it's one of the most common things people do as scum, to the point of blinding obviousness.

[Accountant]

What was the point of post 51, then?

[Accountant]

Why do you think that wanting to seem town is a bad thing? After all, town members don't want to get lynched, since that helps the scum win, so they'd want to seem as town as possible, right?

[Accountant]

60 is unashamedly fluff, and it's from someone who likes to fluff. I didn't get that impression of you; more importantly, I think post 51 looks like you're doing analysis but doesn't mean anything.

[Accountant]

How does post 10 lead you to make those conclusions about Morning Tweet's scum play?

[Accountant]

Why does post 10 lead you to conclude Morning Tweet is honest? Does your conclusions apply to everyone else in the game who has made friendly and honest posts?

he might also be trying to set up an alter ego for this game by acting differently from his personality.

Why would Morning Tweet do this?

[Accountant]

What do you make of it?

[Accountant]

I'm examining your mindset and getting a sense of how you approach the game. This serves two purposes:

1) It helps me understand you as a person, which in turn makes it easy for me to discern your alignment.

2) It allows me to uncover possible discrepancies in your mindset that you might have made as scum. It's far harder to fake a consistent townie mindset than it is to make townie seeming posts. Thought processes... well, they DO lie, but far less.

[Accountant]

VOTE: Charloux

I like this wagon.

[Accountant]

A lot of posts that really don't accomplish anything but remind everyone that they are actively participating in the discussion.

This looks like more playstyle than alignment.

As for being a leader, well, I generally try to lead the town as IC, regardless of my alignment. I could show you some games where this happened, if you wish.

[Accountant]

Also just to be clear - Accountant - are you saying you will still honestly help town if you are on maf side?

Yes. As an IC, I have to follow these rules strictly.

[Accountant]

Why do you think that you would be responsible for him getting quicklynched when you're only putting him at L-2, with Transcend already having publicly warned against quicklynching?

[Accountant]

Maybe I'm using the wrong terminology. But if Char is town, and I put him at L-2, couldn't the two scum players both jump on him and get him lynched? It wouldn't be smart, since it would make them seem suspicious, but I've already made mistakes in this game so I can't rule it out.

If that happens, the person who quickhammered would almost certainly get lynched, and the scum who L-1'd him would be placed under massive suspicion. It would be great for town if that were to happen!

[Accountant]

I've already made mistakes in this game

What do you mean by this?

[Accountant]

It won't make them seem suspicious if they do it the proper way, with intent to hammer, asking for claims, and so on. For something like quickhammering, that would indeed be suspicious.

would a mafia member really unvote their teammate like that?

What do you mean by this?

[Accountant]

That's not true. People lynch on Day 1 all the time. In fact, lynching on Day 1 is strictly optimal, and there's no telling when you holding your vote on a partner might turn into a real wagon that gains steam. Of course, some scum intentionally do this to look good when their partner flips scum

[Accountant]

Charloux, why are you still on your RVS vote? Do you not have any scumreads?

[Accountant]

Post 114 implies that you do have a good feeling about

someone

. Is it so weak that you think your RVS vote is stronger than your good feeling?

Why were my questions bad, and why were the flaws that Morning Tweet identified in your answers a function of the questions rather than the way you answered them?

[Accountant]

Gut feelings don't spring from thin air. Shouldn't you be looking into what makes you have that gut feeling and see whether they're worth voting?

[Accountant]

What's your gut feeling?

[Accountant]

What's the difference between asking someone questions when he knows why he is being asked and when he doesn't?

Don't deflect. Having a "gut feeling" and not explaining it is a classic scum tactic. You could turn around later and use it to push a mislynch on anyone, claiming your gut was scunreading them all along. Or you could plod along refusing to give any real reads(which might make you look bad or incriminate your scumbuddies) while pretending you have some because

gut

. Take responsibility for your own words and lay your "gut feeling" out for town to see. Only scum hates transparency, and only scum hates it when they get a spotlight put on their actions - which explains your disgust towards my questions.

[Accountant]

I'm off to bed guys. Just saying so you know why I'll be gone for multiple hours. It's 2.AM here now. My bedtime.

I'll be interested to see how this has developed in the morning. Ni night.

What's your read on Charloux? You've said before that you don't think we're both scum together. Any other thoughts, or are we both null?

[Accountant]

@Accountant: I refuse to play your game anymore. Being one-sidedly asked a series of questions isn't what a normal person would call discussion.
In 119 you asked me why i don't look into my gut read, and i hinted that i am in 120. THEN you asked what my gut read is, and i asked the question in 122, hinting you the reason why i can't answer that. Instead of silence i get you accusing me of deflecting questions and even having scum motivation.
I either overestimated your ability to see into text deeply or you have a reason for sabotaging me on purpose. I doubt the end result would change for my gut feeling, but who knows?

If this "gut read" is something you can't share - why bring it up at all?

I have a vote on you, so isn't it natural that I'd pepper you with questions and pressure you? Why are you acting like this is some sort of farce or I'm bullying you in some way?

[Accountant]

You're not being cooperative at all. You're stonewalling perfectly reasonable questions and hiding your thought processes - something which should never be done as town.

In post 128, you tell me that you can't any questions about your gut feeling:

hinting you the reason why i can't answer that

Okay, fair enough. I can see why you might want to do that. But, if the gut feeling is secret, why did you write this in post 114?

And i definitely won't vote until i have more than a good feeling.

If the feeling you had is so secret, you could have written it as "I definitely won't vote until I have a more concrete grasp of the game and have a good lead". In this case, the gut feeling you can't talk about wouldn't be brought up at all. So when you write this, I think there's one main scenario in which this pattern of behavior makes sense.

Namely - you don't have a real gut feeling at all. You're scum who's trying to placate me by giving a vague answer then being tight-lipped about the specifics when I press you about it. This is supported by the difference in response between post 131 and post 117. In post 117, you quoted my 116 and wrote

But i can see how my statement is misleading now that i read it. Well, there could be something in Norska's vote and quick unvote earlier...

This implies that you think my question is reasonable and coming from a position where I'm merely misunderstanding your stance. You also show a willingness to talk about your gut feeling, hinting that it has something to do with Norska.

But later on, in 131, you wrote this:

I tried being cooperative, and now you are using it as a scumtell. Really smart move Accountant!

In other words, you think I'm being distinctly

un

reasonable in 116, which doesn't match up with your initial reaction in 117. You imply that I'm witchhunting you, but in 117 you thought it was just a misunderstanding. Which is it?

[Accountant]

I think we need to pressure the more inactive players.

Perhaps you should start by voting one of them, then.

[Accountant]

What concerns me about Charloux's joking isn't that he's joking or being off-topic, but that he's not contributing any content other than joking. Either he intends to slack off the entire game or he genuinely has no ideas to present to us.

[Accountant]

For the record, I'm considering Charloux's refusal to answer my questions about his inconsistent behavior in #134 to be an admission of guilt.

[Accountant]

u do realize

that the inactive players may not even be aware this game is a thing right now

just wait for them to get replaced, tunneling inactives is a very bad and useless idea.

Yes I'm aware that the inactive players may not even be aware this game is a thing right now. Yes tunnelling inactives is a bad idea if they're not aware it's a thing and they're going to get replaced.

You are assuming, however, that they're not lurking intentionally. Pressure voting the less active players so they actually post so we can read them is a good way for town to defend itself against scum lurkers.

You say you want to apply pressure against the active lurkers, but other than generic calls to lynch the lurkers and planting your vote on Norska you haven't actually pushed any wagons or done anything to get people on board and exert more pressure. Are you just applying pressure for the sake of wanting to apply pressure, or do you actually care about making them feel fear?

[Accountant]

Transcend is a townlean for me at the moment, so you'll need to provide reasoning if you want me to get on board.

[Accountant]

It's pointless for me to pressure vote someone by myself. That's not pressure.

You can pressure someone by yourself. Calling out logical inconsistencies, putting them under the microscope and making sure they can't get away with anything - the same thing I did with Charloux, basically. If you're really interested in pressuring Norska, shouldn't you have questioned them, interrogated them to make them incriminate themselves or try to convince others that they're active lurking and should be lynched? Heck, I didn't even see you bring up active lurking until recently.

[Accountant]

Why is Charloux a townread, WCS?

[Accountant]

WCS, here is a question for you.

You have two people that you'd like to lynch: Transcend and Norska. For Transcend, the reasoning is due to your gut. For Norska, it's because they're active lurking. Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to vote Norska than Transcend here? After all, you have actual reasoning for your Norska lynch so it's way more likely that people will follow you onto it. If you moved off Norska because you felt people wouldn't join you, then it makes no sense to move

onto

Transcend, who is even worse in terms of "will people join you on this wagon", since he's townread by a few people and you have no reasoning except gut. Not only that, you're saying that you trust your gut more than your reasoning regarding Norska. Is that true?

[Accountant]

I disagree. I think WCS flipping scum would indicate town!Charloux. That's because I have a hard time believing that scum!WCS trying to defend his partner by deflecting the wagon off him would

ever

admit it and say that he was trying to deflect the wagon and claim to have a townread on him. I would expect WCS to deny and justify it in some other way if that was the case. I think that scum!WCS defending an incredibly scummy town!Charloux in an unconvincing manner makes perfect sense - he wants us to brush him off, lynch Charloux, wait for her to flip town and then go "see, guys? I told you, but you didn't listen!" which makes him look really good after the flip while also getting his mislynch to happen - a mislynch that would not be associated with him in any way.

[Accountant]

But even if you dismiss that possibility you can't deny that there are reasons for scum!WCS to defend town!Char, right? So if WCS flips scum you shouldn't instalynch Char.

[Accountant]

Although I just realized that I've fallen into the trap of thinking about who's scum/town if X flips scum/town. This is called pre-flip association, and we should probably avoid engaging in it because it tends to be a house of cards, as well as a waste of time. For example, if I spend too much time talking about Charloux in the event that WCS flips scum, that's worthless if WCS flips town. It would be far better to wait until WCS actually flips, and then talk about who's scum or town based on that.

Instead, let's refocus on Charloux. WCS, you've stated a gut town read on Charloux. Do you think your gut town read outweighs the scummy activity that the rest of us have pointed out?

[Accountant]

Here's the concern I have. If WCS just has a bad read, it'd have to be a pretty hard bad read. Like, he's so certain Char is town that he's willing to ignore all the evidence against Char. I really want to know why he has such a hard read if, as he says, it's all based on

gut

. I know players who have faith in their gut, but WCS doesn't strike me as that kind of person, and even those players wouldn't take it to this extent.

[Accountant]

Do you scumlean everyone other than me, Transcend and WCS, or do you scumlean everyone on your wagon other than me and Transcend(ie. Morning Tweet)?

[Accountant]

Why do you scumlean Tweet? Is it simply because she's voting you?

[Accountant]

To be honest, I'm not certain on anyone, and seeing where I stand at the moment, I really can't afford to dig myself any deeper into this hole I'm in.

What do you mean hole? There isn't any major pressure applied to you, nor are you being considered as a lynch candidate for today. What's with the self-consciousness? Shouldn't townies be focused on telling the truth about their reads and catching scum rather than worrying about how town they look?

However, with you shifting your vote onto WCSBO, I'm feeling a little better.

Why does Transcend voting WCS make you feel better? Transcend wasn't shifting his vote off you, nor was he justifying your own vote(because you're voting Char and he's voting WCS).

Him scumreading Transcend and townreading Charloux is pretty much the exact opposite of what I've got, so he's slipped a little further down the rankings in my mind.

Why do you think that people with different or opposite reads from you are more likely to be scum?

[Accountant]

I'm uncomfortable with your mindset. It feels to me like you are thinking "how can I make sure that I look as good as possible" rather than "how can I discern Charloux's alignment", which is a very scummy mindset. I could see some of this being due to your newness to the game, but there are limits to how much that can be used as an excuse.

You said earlier that WCS looked slightly scummy because his reads were the opposite of yours, but now it's due to the fact that you don't buy his gut explanation. Which is it?

[Accountant]

I'm starting to think maybe WCS or Norska would be better lynches than Charloux today. Their flips tell us more about Char than Char's flip tells us about them. Not only that, Charloux had made some good posts lately, like 204, while their posting has gotten worse and worse.

[Accountant]

UNVOTE:

[Accountant]

Information lynching isn't that good of an idea. I respect you a lot, but I think it's best to collectively decide who's the biggest scumfuck and hang them.

However, I do want Charloux to talk more about how WCSBO defended him and if he thinks he deserved said defense, and I also want WCSBO to elaborate himself a little bit more than he has.

It's not a pure information lynch - I would never go for something as shoddy as that. I'm saying that Charloux has become less of a scumfuck lately, and WCS and Norska have become more - so it makes sense to lynch them under your criteria.

[Accountant]

@WCS: You claim that I made a mistake by engaging in bad logic and am trying to cover it up. This makes three big assumptions.

1) That town!Accountant would never engage in bad logic.
2) That town!Accountant would never cover up their bad logic.
3) That what I did(stating that preflip associations were a bad idea and asking town to refocus on Charloux) was me attempting to cover up my mistake.

Can you please explain these assumptions?

[Accountant]

Any chance however remote of someone getting on board my slight scumlean of transcend is better than the zero chance of getting on board with Norska.

What makes you think that people have a higher chance of getting on board with your gut Transcend lynch than they have of getting on board with your active lurker Norska lynch?

[Accountant]

Am I correct in surmising that your read on me can be said to be mostly gut, then?

Well, here's a question for you. What am I wriggling out of?

[Accountant]

Any chance however remote of someone getting on board my slight scumlean of transcend is better than the zero chance of getting on board with Norska.

What makes you think that people have a higher chance of getting on board with your gut Transcend lynch than they have of getting on board with your active lurker Norska lynch?

I was explicitly told that my reason for Norska was unconvincing.

And you think your reason for Transcend is not?

[Accountant]

Which slot doesn't deserve any towncred? Charloux or WCS?

[Accountant]

But I think it's something you would say as either alignment.

And I think when you said you "just realized" that seemed not genuine.

I don't understand. If I would say that as either alignment, what motive would I have for covering it up as scum?

[Accountant]

Surprisingly enough, it's a townlean. I think newb!Scum would try to buddy the IC rather than hard tunnelling them and claiming gut. That sort of behavior comes more often from frustrated town or someone who has a really strong instinct but can't explain why - in fact, I can't think of any reason why scum!WCS would want to do this.

[Accountant]

You think WCS is white-knighting Charloux but pushing a lynch he knows won't go through to get her lynched while washing his hands of it?

Well, that's a possibility I've both considered and mentioned. I could definitely see it with Transcend. But I feel as though his rants about how scummy I am are genuine.

[Accountant]

you've done nothing to deflect the forming wagon on WCSBO

This is a good point raised by Transcend, though; he's not just throwing random accusations at you. Do you have a response to this?

[Accountant]

Yo Doug, shut up and allow me to skip the next 2/3 days of torture, i have had enough. I claim Town Doctor.

I buy this. Don't lynch. I repeat, do not lynch this.

[Accountant]

Transcend, I looked into his ISO to check for softs, and I see some stuff that I think points to Charloux being a PR. I do not think it's the sort of thing Charloux would fake as scum, especially as they didn't draw any attention to it during the claim.

[Accountant]

UNVOTE:

[Accountant]

During the fight with me, Charloux emanated giant waves of "get the fuck off my back, don't ask why". At the time I thought it was defensiveness at best, scum panicking after getting caught at worst. But it also makes sense if he's a PR.

[Accountant]

I don't know. It's really hard to fake as scum. I mean, here's what I think we should do. Everyone after this post, if you are not a jailkeeper or 1-shot bulletproof, say "I am not a JK or BP". If anyone claims JK or BP, we kill Charloux immediately. If nobody claims it, I'm not willing to lynch Charloux.

For Charloux to be scum, they'd have to be bad enough to slip up early game, good enough to fake a very hard to fake PR tell, subtle enough to not draw attention to it when pressed about softs, clever enough to predict that I'd see the soft and say that he's town, and lucky enough to win the 50/50 coinflip in fakeclaims. I think that probability is low enough that I don't want to lynch him, especially given the consequences if we're wrong.

[Accountant]

Why would he sacrifice himself to fish at this point?

I mean if we assume Charloux was scum from the start then claiming Doctor makes sense, because if you're going to go down you might as well go down drawing out a PR by counterclaim. Here's the thing though, I'd expect scum Charloux to claim BP so he has a reason why he survived the night.

[Accountant]

It's pointless debating whether Charloux is town or scum at this point. Let everyone weigh in, check for counterclaims and by the end of it we'll know if he's town or scum. If nobody counterclaims, he's almost certainly town. If there's a CC, he's definitely scum.

I am not a jailkeeper or bulletproof, obviously.

[Accountant]

Meanwhile Transcend I want to talk to you about your town read on Manuel. I don't get it. Why? I haven't seen anything super town from him.

[Accountant]

I think it's because we had similar reads. It is actually dissipating a little bit as i find a wcsbo/char team impossible.

I mean, I got pegged as all-but-confirmed town in Nahdia's Mini just by faking the same reads as the innocent child/predicting how they'd read a certain situation and jumping in to post that read first. So you can see why I'm skeptical of this kind of tell.

[Accountant]

If Charloux ends up being unccd, I'll probably put a massive fos on Manuel as Charloux wasn't actually confirmed town at the time, and he seemed to trust him too much too quickly.

I broadly agree with this. I can see town Manuel giving trust to Charloux, since by the time he posted I'd already explained my analysis of the soft and why Charloux was likely town.

[Accountant]

Like yeah he's conf town if he's not cc'd. No shit there

Are you even reading his posts?

[Accountant]

That was directed at Manuel's 316.

[Accountant]

275 was made before the claim and before my post about why Charloux is all but conftown if nobody counterclaims. Why are you trying to present it as Transcend's view after the claim, when the post I quoted was far more recent and would therefore match his current views better?

Or do you just throw shade? Like asking him what he thinks about me after the claim so you can defend me later.

This is a

very

strange post. Here, you make two assertions:

1) That I am throwing shade.
2) That I am defending you.

I do not think either assertion is true. To throw shade means to imply someone is scummy for bad reasons or no reasons. I do not think I have done this to you, and I invite you to present evidence to the contrary.

Secondly, I don't think I am defending you at all. I started off by asking why Transcend has a townread on you, and saying that I don't see "it"(it being the reason he's townreading you). Then, after Transcend said that you were his biggest FoS if Charloux doesn't get CCed, I said I broadly agree with this, even though I could see you being confident in Charloux's alignment as town. Finally, I questioned whether you were paying attention to this game. I don't think any of these posts can be construed as defense, much less the white-knighting you are implying. Can you show me where I have defended you?

[Accountant]

Manuel, why are you so eager to repeatedly explain why Charloux is town if there's no CC, despite the fact that at last check all three of us agreed on it and despite the fact that the reasoning is already clearly established? Are you just trying to make it seem like you are analyzing things without contributing anything new?

[Accountant]

His current view has nothing to do with this. I asked him how he cant believe the claim and wants to lynch Chaloux without a cc.
Him changing his mind now is questionable in itself.

Why is Transcend changing his mind questionable? Do you think he would be more stubborn as town?

So why did you feel the need to do that?

Because it's a dumb line of questioning? What do you hope to achieve by questioning Transcend about it? Do you think Transcend is more likely to have a different opinion about game theory if he was scum?

[Accountant]

@WCS: I feel as though I should remind you that scum are not allowed to talk to each other during the day(newbie games have no daychat). So it's impossible for Transcend to have plotted anything out with Charloux.

Seeing as scum would know this, I wonder if this is an actual townslip by WCS.

[Accountant]

I'll assume that anyone who posted and hasn't CCed isn't going to do so. That means we're waiting on Norska and Morning Tweet.

[Accountant]

@WCS: I feel as though I should remind you that scum are not allowed to talk to each other during the day(newbie games have no daychat). So it's impossible for Transcend to have plotted anything out with Charloux.

Seeing as scum would know this, I wonder if this is an actual townslip by WCS.

Isn't there pre-game chat when the role PMs have been sent out but the day hasn't started yet?

I find it difficult to believe that Transcend and Charloux managed to come up with a plan this convoluted in the couple of days that pre-game lasted for.

[Accountant]

I'm not a tracker

Then you're a VT or scum.

STOP.

You're only helping scum narrow down the list of targets who might be PR if you repeatedly force this kind of claim from people.

[Accountant]

Feels like WCSBO just rolefished...

Why aren't you voting him, then?

[Accountant]

@Misa: Okay, my bad, you are voting WCS. But I don't see much wagon pressure on someone you've been voting from the beginning. You seem content to lie back and let others push WCS for you.

[Accountant]

Char isn't confirmed town. We could be in a setup without a doctor and it could be a fake claim. If we're in a setup with a doctor someone would have counterclaimed him. But we could be in a setup without a doctor. But if we are in a setup without a doctor then I know what setup we're in.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

4.AM here now and I'm exhausted, goodnight folks.

If we're in a setup without a doctor, then the JK or BP would have claimed, because that would prove we're in such a setup, which means Charloux claim would have to be false. Since no claims have appeared, I believe Charloux's claim.

[Accountant]

Transcend you might want to consider a thread re-read at this point with the knowledge that Charloux is town. Like, if you can't get it out of your head that Charloux is a scumfuck, you'll start confbiasing and getting tunnel vision. It's what I usually do if I find myself tunnelling.

[Accountant]

as if not considering the fact that Char could be rolefishing

What do you mean by this?

In terms of reads, Norska, Manuel and Misa are all in the same place for me. I'm eliminating Charloux, Transcend and Morning Tweet from my lynch list because I currently have townleans on the last two and Charloux is confirmed. I think Norska is slightly scummier than the other two, not sure why Transcend townreads him, so an explanation for that would be appreciated.

[Accountant]

I think with conftown and a few obvtowns around, PoE is the best way to determine the lynch for today, especially as I don't see any blatant baddies.

Also: forgot to mention WCS in my last post. I'm treating him as a townread for now, for reasons already stated.

[Accountant]

I don't know. It's really hard to fake as scum. I mean, here's what I think we should do. Everyone after this post, if you are not a jailkeeper or 1-shot bulletproof, say "I am not a JK or BP". If anyone claims JK or BP, we kill Charloux immediately. If nobody claims it, I'm not willing to lynch Charloux.

For Charloux to be scum, they'd have to be bad enough to slip up early game, good enough to fake a very hard to fake PR tell, subtle enough to not draw attention to it when pressed about softs, clever enough to predict that I'd see the soft and say that he's town, and lucky enough to win the 50/50 coinflip in fakeclaims. I think that probability is low enough that I don't want to lynch him, especially given the consequences if we're wrong.

This post explains why, and Manuel posted after I posted this.

[Accountant]

Yeah, and that's why I believe Char's claim.

I'd like to be open though.

You said that Manuel's "not considering that Charloux could be rolefishing" posts are bad. That seems inconsistent with you doing the same - you've more or less bought into the idea that Charloux's claim is legitimate from the start. How do you explain this discrepancy?

[Accountant]

The key word is "could be". That purpose is to keep certain worlds open; I dislike townreading people just because they agree with me.

Why do you think that scum!Manuel would not keep those worlds open but town!Manuel would?

[Accountant]

Ahem. Power roles don't reveal their identity for a reason. If they let too much slip, scum may figure out what sort of power roles there are, and who holds those roles. I'd recommend that we keep talk about what sort of power roles there might be to a minimum in order to avoid letting things slip to scum, unless you can show me clearly how town benefits from discussing the setup.

[Accountant]

I keep re-reading the cases and going back and forth in my mind about Morning Tweet's alignment. I do think Manuel looks better now though - he has that "dog on a bone stubbornness" that looks a lot like a townie who found what they feel is a smoking gun and don't want to let go. Scum like to go for lynches that look good and are easy to push; I'm not convinced the sudden aggression on Tweet fulfils either of those criteria.

I want thatsit and Misa to post more! I actually forgot thatsit even exists, which is kinda making me nervous that he's scum slipping by.

[Accountant]

I didn't notice anyone else doing the same thing. Why are these people doing this? I think it's very anti-town to do all this. Who started it? I thought it was only you and I joined in because I thought the mistake had already been made but I may as well learn something from the information provided.

It doesn't give scum extra information. The existence of a BP or JK proves Char to be scum, so if there was one they'd definitely claim and get Char lynched. So anyone who doesn't counterclaim is alteady known to not be BP or JK - saying it explicitly is just to make sure there's no counterclaims that might prove Charloux to be scum.

[Accountant]

@Morning Tweet: Sorry, I skimmed over your post and forgot about it. Here's the thing - scum doesn't care who town lynches, as long as it's not a mafia member. If there's anyone they really really want dead, they'll get rid of them at night, not risk themselves pushing a mislynch during the day. And I think scum!Manuel would be more than happy sitting on thatsit or Misa and basically slipping by rather than intentionally putting himself at the center of attention by pushing a lynch on you. Voting thatsit or Misa would allow him to fade from attention, and at the same time it's easy to justify voting lurkers.

[Accountant]

Transcend, if you want to make a case by PoE, you have to carefully justify every townie you're eliminating from the list, or else the whole exercise is pointless. In this case, I don't see why you feel thatsit is town.

[Accountant]

I think a Misa lynch is better than a Tweet lynch today. I do agree that Manuel and Tweet can't be scum together.

[Accountant]

I didn't notice anyone else doing the same thing. Why are these people doing this? I think it's very anti-town to do all this. Who started it? I thought it was only you and I joined in because I thought the mistake had already been made but I may as well learn something from the information provided.

It doesn't give scum extra information. The existence of a BP or JK proves Char to be scum, so if there was one they'd definitely claim and get Char lynched. So anyone who doesn't counterclaim is alteady known to not be BP or JK - saying it explicitly is just to make sure there's no counterclaims that might prove Charloux to be scum.

Oh. Claiming all the roles that you're not doesn't give scum any extra info? None at all? Really? So scum don't know which roles a townie isn't when they say what roles they're not? How does that work?

No, claiming that you aren't a BP or JK doesn't give scum any extra info, because if you were, you'd have claimed already.

[Accountant]

Because if they claim, we immediately know Charloux is scum(since she can't be doctor if there's a BP or JK), and it's worth telling scum who the BP or JK is in exchange for a scum member dying. So if there were, they'd definitely claim to kill Charloux. Since nobody has, that proves that nobody is BP or JK, so we're not letting anything new slip.

[Accountant]

Because if they claim, we immediately know Charloux is scum(since she can't be doctor if there's a BP or JK), and it's worth telling scum who the BP or JK is in exchange for a scum member dying. So if there were, they'd definitely claim to kill Charloux. Since nobody has, that proves that nobody is BP or JK, so we're not letting anything new slip.

So besides BP and JK should no other power roles be claimed?

Yes.

[Accountant]

Accountant, you say you prefer a Misa lynch to a Tweet lynch but you also say that you don't think both Tweet and Manuel are scum. Do you think neither of them are scum or do you think Manuel is scum?

I think there's a significant chance they are both town. I suspect real scum is sitting on the sidelines or lurking in the shadows pointing and laughing.

Perhaps you are giving information without analysis?

I don't think this is an accurate characterization. Haven't I clearly explained all my reads and reasons?

[Accountant]

@Transcend: You still haven't explained that read on thatsit despite you saying you were getting around to it.

[Accountant]

I understand if you think thatsit is not playing the newbie card. But I do not see why he is town in the first place. Please explain this clearly. I've been burned before by letting people get away with unexplained reads.

[Accountant]

tunnelling Transcend

How am I tunneling Transcend? To "tunnel" someone implies you're going to vote them and only look at them and not look at anything else; the term itself derives from "tunnel" vision. Do you think I've been interacting solely with Transcend, or that I've been scumreading him to an excessive degree?

[Accountant]

Accountant why have you been so neutral recently?

Who do you think is scum?

I don't know. I will say I think Manuel and Tweet is a TvT right now, with Manuel being stronger town than Tweet. I have a townlean on you as well, so let's PoE you, Manuel, Tweet, WCS and Charloux out.

That leaves 2 scum in {Misa, Norska, thatsit}, so I'm fine with a lynch from any of these slots today. It's difficult for me to determine who in that pile is scum exactly, because they're all either lurkers who are hard to interrogate or kinda unreadable(like thatsit), or both. It's frustrating in a way, but I have confidence that

at least

one scum is in those three.

[Accountant]

All I meant was that you were pushing Transcend recently.

By pushing, do you mean I was trying to get him lynched?

[Accountant]

The process of elimination, a powerful scumhunting tool and the main one I am using right now, is not subject to interpretation. The strong townreads that form the basis of the elimination are, but I've clearly laid out my reasons for them and nobody has interpreted them differently, so I feel safe in saying that there's no problem there.

[Accountant]

No. You were either testing him as a townie to see if he was lynchworthy...

Not quite. Town benefits from transparency, so I wanted to make sure that me and Transcend were on the same page regarding reads. Even better, if he has a good reason for townreading thatsit, he might be able to convince me of the same, and then I can tighten my PoE net even further.

At the same time, this transparency also makes it hard for Transcend to get away with things in the event he is scum. Instead of saying "I am questioning people to see if they're scum", it would be more accurate to say "I am questioning people to create a hostile atmosphere for scum that leaves them no rock to hide under".

[Accountant]

Whoever's scum is Pretty Damn Good™.

Should I take this to imply that you have no scum reads? If so, do you have any town reads, or are you drawing a complete blank?

[Accountant]

But doesn't this make town reads more important than scum reads because scum reads will take care of themselves once we decide who is and isn't town?

It depends on the situation, but having strong townreads you can work with and trust greatly is as important as having a good idea of whose lynch to push.

[Accountant]

Whoever's scum is Pretty Damn Good™.

Should I take this to imply that you have no scum reads? If so, do you have any town reads, or are you drawing a complete blank?

It's more like that I don't really understand this situation's PoE. Like people are townreading other people in 19 pages where, going through their iso, I can find one town post, and people are scumreading people just because they're lurking.

I think I have adequately explained all my townreads. Which ones do you think are thinly justified(like having only one town post)?

I would appreciate it if you gave us a reads list right about now. Like, sort players into categories(townlean, scumlean, townread, scumread, null) based on how you see them.

[Accountant]

Manuel v. Tweet is TvT.

Manuel is town because I think scum!Manuel would sit on a lurker rather than push you. You're town for the same reasons Transcend is - you've been making consistently solid posts and your thought process is clear and I think oriented towards trying to identify and lynch scum. While it's not to say that scum can't make solid posts, I think it's much harder for scum to fake that kind of mindset. Scum trying to look town usually make posts that look good on the surface but that don't contribute much to actual scumhunting, but I didn't get the impression at your posts are shallow.

Furthermore, the easy way in which everyone else seems to be letting you two fight or focusing on your fight seems to me to be a sign of either apathy or scum who is more than happy to let two town members go at each other tooth and nail. In particular I think townies would try to push their own scumreads rather than try to make the decision into a false dichotomy of Manuel vs Tweet. This is why Misa's lack of scumreads is very concerning to me - I think she doesn't have any so she can go "well, I don't have anyone to push, so I'll just pick between Manuel and Tweet".

[Accountant]

This is the only thing keeping me from voting Misa right now. I'd expect scum to read the thread more closely than that.

I strongly disagree. Inattentiveness or apathy is more due to the sort of player Misa is in general than due to her role PM influencing her behavior.

[Accountant]

@Accountant: Do you think my case on Tweet has no valid points?
What is your townread on Tweet based on?
If you ignore me pressuring her what exactly makes her different from Misa or Norsak?

No, I think it has some valid points, specifically your pointing out that Tweet seems to care about whether or not other people want to lynch WCS because she's worried she'll lok bad if she hammers. I just don't think that's enough to make her scum. I explained why I townread her in the last page, which also explains why she's different from Misa and Norska.

[Accountant]

Are you ready to make a vote? I'm surprised you don't have a vote up yet.

I am too! I thought I had a vote on Misa, but apparently not!

VOTE: Misa

[Accountant]

That's L-1. Remember to state intent and wait for claim.

[Accountant]

Transcend, chill a bit. Not the first impression we want to give to newbies.

[Accountant]

@Charloux: Are you set on Norska, or do you have intent to move over and hammer? You didn't seem to be dead set on Norska.

[Accountant]

Someone explain why Misa is town - I don't see it. Acting jokey and casual does not make you town. Transcend, I think it's pretty clear that me not voting Misa was due to me not realizing I hadn't voted yet, rather than due to any real attempt to dodge the Misa wagon - my posts before were, I think, fairly obviously a prelude to a Misa vote, especially the one where I talk about my PoE reasoning.

@Manuel: It's weird to me that you've been hard scumreading Tweet for the last few pages, but immediately sheep her onto a wagon she doesn't even strongly believe in("who will go here?"). Please explain this discrepancy.

[Accountant]

chimed in about Accountant

I'd note that most of the remarks "chimed in" about me are not reasoning about why I am scum, but rather comments that my being an IC does not make me town - which is absolutely true, but equally it does not make me scum.

There are two pieces of actual reasoning about my scumminess, given by Transcend and Misa. The first is that he felt I was coasting to a mislynch on Charloux, but had to change my plans when Charloux was outed as a doctor. This is true. I was indeed coasting to a lynch on Charloux, because Charloux was the scummiest player in this game. After the claim, I had to re-evaluate my reads and work based on PoE, since my old case was no longer valid. Don't you think that's natural for town to do as well as scum?

The second was that Misa felt I was directing people how to feel. This is an assuredly scummy trait; the only problem is that I'm not sure

where

she felt I was manipulating people. For that reason, I'd like Misa to give me some examples of where I was directing people's feelings.

[Accountant]

Whose feelings were I directing in post 28, and how?

[Accountant]

Shouldn't it be an NAI post then, by your own logic? You'd be thinking "I can't tell if Accountant is just being an IC or trying to further their win condition, so I guess this post is useless for determining their alignment". In that case, isn't it weird to bring this post up as a reason to scumread me?

[Accountant]

@Manuel: It's weird to me that you've been hard scumreading Tweet for the last few pages, but immediately sheep her onto a wagon she doesn't even strongly believe in("who will go here?"). Please explain this discrepancy.

I dont see a discrepancy. I am scumreading you as well and how she acts when you get pressured is something i am very interested in.
Looking at the last votecount its clear that my vote wasnt achieving anything.

Do you think me and Tweet are both scum?

[Accountant]

Why has a no-resistance wagon on me blitzed to L-1 in 5 pages without anyone explaining why I'm scum or why Misa is town? I mean, everyone seems to be going off gut here, which is frustrating. I think scum is one of the people coasting to a mislynch against me pretending to "gut read" me as scum; because they know they won't have to provide any reasoning.

More importantly, why is Misa town?! Transcend, WCS, anyone? I don't need an elegant soliloquy on his obtownness, just something other than "idk he seems really town".

[Accountant]

Why would scum!Tweet bus scum!Accountant there? If we were the scumteam, she could have easily piled onto Misa.

[Accountant]

Accountant... what do you make of Transcend unvoting Misa when she was close to being lynched and then changed his mind shortly afterwards? To me that behavior only makes sense if Transcend is town.

It's not indicative of alignment in my eyes. I think Transcend is savvy enough to pretend to waver in his read to look more town; that said, he's still town for unrelated reasons.

[Accountant]

If Misa flips scum, I might take a good hard look at Manuel. His eagerness to jump on the branch Tweet offered looks like he was scurrying to find a counterwagon for Misa. I don't think Tweet would be scummy in that case; voting the IC then going "will anyone back me on this?" doesn't feel like scum pushing a counterwagon.

[Accountant]

Like, I can buy one person following their gut and switching votes from Misa to me, but 3-4 in a row, in rapid succession? I think at that point there's something not right going on there.

@WCS: Yes. I've stated my reasons for reading her as town and that hasn't changed.

[Accountant]

you're unclear on whether you're reading Tweet as town.

You asked me if I was reading Tweet as town. I said "yes". I'm not sure how you can be more clear than that.

[Accountant]

Charloux: Given as you've outed yourself as doctor and docs can't protect themselves, you're very likely dead tonight. If you want to make any last words, do it quickly. D

[Accountant]

Hey all, I feel pretty physically awful today. Terrible coughing fits and headaches, so don't expext text walls from me today. I still have faith in Charloux, more or less - like I said, I'd expect scum to claim BP so they have an explanation why they survived the night, and Charloux hasn't been coasting along on the trust offered to him after his claim.

@Morning Tweet: I explained my reasoning in the very paragraph you quoted. Charloux is a claimed doc, which means there's no way to stop scum from killing her. WCS was the other kill option, but obviously I wasn't going to outright say it in case mafia was genuinely clueless enough to miss that WCS was a PR.

[Accountant]

@Morning Tweet: Why did you ask me why I thought Charloux was an obvious kill. Were you confused by how she was an obvious kill?

@Transcend: I'm very uncomfortable with your continued townread on thatsit. I searched your ISO and found two instances of you explaining why you townread him(feel free to correct me if I missed a post):

He hasn't done exactly anything to wow me but I think him asking if you would play to the advantage of town if you were scum was really towny imo.

and

thatsit just screams mislynch bait to me

I think these are two good reasons why you'd read thatsit as town. I don't think these are good enough reasons for you to have as strong a read on thatsit as you currently do. For the first reason, it's definitely pretty towny, but it's also easily faked by scum. I can't imagine that you would townread him so hard and never even consider changing your read on him - to the point that you even use him as confirmed town in a PoE post - to that extent.

As for the second, I don't buy that you think "mislynch bait" players are always town. Surely you've seen some scum who were "mislynch bait" players(though obviously it wouldn't be a mislynch bait then) - iraonvp was one in Nahdia's Mini, and I know you spectated that game. Being easily lynchable is due to a player's playing style, which doesn't change no matter what role PM they have. Finally, if you really thought that way, you wouldn't have wagoned Charloux before the claim.

Please clarify your thoughts and explain these discrepancies.

[Accountant]

He means that he wants to try to lynch the Mafia Roleblocker in order to prove that a doctor exists(since any setup with Roleblocker and Cop has a Doctor), thus clearing Charloux.

@thatsit: Why Manuel in particular?

@Norska: Who are your scumreads and why?

[Accountant]

@thatsit: Why Manuel in particular?

Please answer the question.

[Accountant]

Do you then believe that Manuel and Transcend are the scum team?

[Accountant]

not sure. possible.

You have hard scumreads on Manuel and Transcend and seemingly nobody else. Why are you so unsure?

[Accountant]

Transcend, I'm still waiting on your response. Please get back to this game soon.

[Accountant]

I'm starting to like Manuel more and more.

[Accountant]

I don't know of any specific technique for lynching the roleblocker; you'll have to ask Transcend about that.

Norska, do you have no scumreads at all?

[Accountant]

VOTE: Transcend

This vote stays until Transcend gets back from his mysterious and conveniently timed AWOL.

[Accountant]

Given that most Day 1s end in a town lynch, are you claiming that you lose motivation D2 like clockwork every time you draw town? I dob't really buy that; heck, you seemed eager enough to advocate for a lynch(on me or Tweet) earlier in the day.

[Accountant]

Do you think that I would have less impact on the game if I drew scum?

[Accountant]

Guys, I can catch scum, but I can't lynch them until you guys get back on and post. I'm firmly convinced there's at least 1 scum hiding in the inactive players and faking apathy to take advantage of this. Don't let him or her do that.

[Accountant]

What would you say is convenient about it?

He goes AWOL just after I asked him about his read on thatsit.

Speaking of which, Morning Tweet, you also seem to have a town read on thatsit. Mind explaining?

[Accountant]

It is less "overly cautious", and more "extremely self preserving". Lines up with my townread on him. Apologetic when he thinks he's done something wrong, very concerned about staying alive. I realize that sounds scummy, but he's outright telling us he'd cowardly go along with any lynch to keep himself alive for another day. Really reminded me of someone who I used to play mafia with on his first game.

Why do you think town Norska would do this but scum Norska would not?

[Accountant]

@Accountant: When you said "at least one scum is among the lurkers" who were you talking about?

{thatsit, Transcend, Norska}

I think there's

at least

one scum here, quite possibly two.

[Accountant]

Then you shouldn't have a problem explaining it clearly.

[Accountant]

@Manuel: Chiefly because of that his narrative starts falling apart. He tells me he has reasons X and Y for strongly townreading thatsit, but when pressed he flakes, comes back with another unsupoorted assertion about thatsit. He claims to have little motivation after the Misa lynch but seemed fairly normal when talking about lynching either me or Tweet. He claims to hate having to maybe be wrong and accidentally push a mislynch, and that he can't decide between me and Tweet, but puts a random naked vote onto me and then disappears again.

For the record, I think Transcend scum would indicate thatsit town. This is either him buddying a newbie or trying to make us think thatsit is his scumbuddy. I don't buy that this is him hard defending a scumbuddy.

@Charloux: As a claimed doctor, you command respect and attention. Shouldn't a town you be using this to try to lead the scumhunting or do something other than slack off?

[Accountant]

Hey Loopdan. Take your time to catch up and give us your thoughts?

[Accountant]

That's an interesting question that has no real answer, and can sometimes be up to personal preference. I think that if you have a very strong read on the original slot, keep it; if the replacement is unreadable, it's fine to keep your original read as well. But flexibility is important. If the replacement redeems the slot(or tarnishes a townread slot) don't be afraid to change your views.

For my personal approach, I prefer to engage with the replacement without any preconceived notions or reads to get a clear idea of how I read the replacement, then I combine that with my read on the slot's alignment to get a rough idea of my new read. Typically if I have strong conflicting views both ways I default to town. Statistically speaking most players are town, and it's far easier for a town player to look scum than a scum player to look town.

[Accountant]

I really don't like how nobody said anything to shut up WCSBO from babbling about roles until it was too late. There were several posts earlier where WCSBO was softing and everyone just let it ride.

I was asleep for a lot of the time he was babbling on, and by that time it was better to let him continue on and 99% get exposed rather than scold him and 100% get exposed.

Do you still have a townread on thatsit?

[Accountant]

I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.

Why does Tweet's prior game make her suspicious? I don't understand?

[Accountant]

It's weird that you highlight my lack of tunnelling as a possible area of concern(presumably treating it as a meta scumtell) but townread me for being more diverse in my scumbunting D2 - ie. townreading me for lack of tunnelling. Can you explain this discrepancy?

[Accountant]

Right, but that doesn't necessarily lead to Tweet being scum. If she can seem as scum, then she'll definitely seem town as town. It therefore follows that Tweet would seem town regardless of alignment - so a shallow observation like "Tweet seems town" tells you nothing. That doesn't lead to an increased likelihood of Tweet scum here.

[Accountant]

So when you say "suspicious", what did you mean to imply about her alignment? I interpreted that as saying she was scummy.

[Accountant]

Talk to me about Manuel. You've been largely ignoring him.

[Accountant]

Welcome Jae!

[Accountant]

I led the D1 lynch on Misa, who was town.
Loopdan's case is mostly due to his predecessor, Transcend, being very shaky/inconsistent about thatsit then naked voting me, making excuses and subbing out after I pressed him on it.
Loopdan made a Norska case in 751.
I personally think the biggest piece of evidence against thatsit is the people who are magically townreading him and won't explain why.

No, I'm not scum.

[Accountant]

Transcend(Loopdan's slot) and I think Tweet also expressed a townread on him.

[Accountant]

I don't buy Norska/thatsit scum. Both are kinda newbies who haven't been paying much attention to the game, so I'd expect them to go for the Doctor claim over WCS.

[Accountant]

Why do you interpret thatsit's D2 posts as him being my scumbuddy as opposed to him simply having a townread on me or trying to buddy me? That makes no sense. You're arranging facts to fit a pre-arranged conclusion.

[Accountant]

You don't buy

either

of them being scum?

Sorry, didn't see this. I don't buy them being scum together. I can buy one of them being scum with a stronger player(Transcend/Tweet, maybe Manuel) who told them who to shank.

[Accountant]

@Manuel: How strong is your scumread on thatsit?

Is your townread on Transcend due solely to demotivation and Loopdan's reads echoing yours? I wouldn't call having similar reads a towntell, especially since it's so easy to fake having similar reads.

[Accountant]

VOTE: thatsit

Let's do this, then. I'm not quite as sure about Loopdan, but it's not an overwhelming scumread.

[Accountant]

(where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

What's your read on me after thatsit's flip? I was definitely heavily involved in the wagon and questioning process, so you should have some kind of opinion on that.

[Accountant]

@Loopdan:

Spoiler:

Page 4 - Norska votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play

Yeah, fair enough. It was a terrible play on my part, and I've given all the justification that I can on it before.

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

I apologise a lot. I still stand by my read on Acc. Why don't you like my TR on Transcend? Aren't you Transcend?

207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him

This is my first game and I wanted to make a strong impression. Yeah, stupid, I know. Ended up doing the complete opposite.

212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)

Surely 260 explains 212? If my best post so far makes you think I'm scum then I clearly have a lot to learn.

564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!

Tbh, my activity level didn't really change during my v/la. If I wanted to remain low-key I wouldn't have said anything.

661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk

Whats scummy about that post?

680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!

As I said, however I got scumreads on day one was clearly flawed, so I wanted to reexamine my posts and try to see where I went wrong. Are townies supposed to memorize all of their earlier posts off by heart? And I said I'm not confident because I'm not confident. After how my earlier reads played out, I don't think its an unreasonable attitude.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Correct. Whats your point?

We still have about 3 days until the deadline, correct? thatsit is still my top scumread, but I don't really feel comfortable lynching someone who can't defend themselves.

Do you have a strong expectation that your top scumread will suddenly change if thatsit gets back and responds?

I don't mean to imply that we should rush the lynch - obviously people should still give intent before hammer(I think thatsit is L-1 right now), but it's weird that you're trying to stall a lynch on your top scumread.

[Accountant]

@thatsit: You are at L-1, and Loopdan wants to hammer you. Please claim and give us your final reads list so we have something to go on tomorrow if you happen to be town.

[Accountant]

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).

And if he flips town?

[Accountant]

I think the point on Transcend makes sense, but even if his dodging questioning is considered NAI, the fact does remain that I was questioning them for a reason. I understand that Loopdan can't be expected to account for Transcend's actions, but having an unexplained hard town read in a game where you've shown indecisiveness and paranoia is scummy as fuck and

reeks

of buddying.

[Accountant]

@Mod: thatsit is on indefinite V/LA. What's your policy for if he just flakes and never comes back? I don't mean to imply he will, but flaking is common in newbies, and we can't sit around forever.

[Accountant]

I don't put that much stock in meta, but I can buy your characterization of Transcend, I suppose.

[Accountant]

@MT: And Norska?

[Accountant]

Oh, you said you believed he was town regardless. I'm not sure why. Sure, if thatsit flips scum Norska is cleared, but why is he town if thatsit flips town?

[Accountant]

Why do you think Norska is town? I've seen some okay looking posts, but I'm not a fan of his fencesitting, no matter how much he lampshades it.

[Accountant]

Also not a fan of Morning Tweet kinda buddying up to me in 809.

LOL Jae did you get paranoid about people with similar reads/thought processes to you after Nahdia's Mini

[Accountant]

Welcome, ThinkBig! Though unless something drastic happens, you're probably going to get hammered.

[Accountant]

V/LA for today

Celebrating birthday with family.

[Accountant]

Naw, the birthday's next week, but I've got a tournament then, so we're celebrating early.

[Accountant]

What's the reasoning behind your FoS?

[Accountant]

Leading the town as a mafia member is not only not playing against your wincon, it's one of the best positions you can be in as a mafia member. As a town leader, you can sway the town into mislynches and deflect suspicion of your buddy(ies). What Jae said in 849 is essentially correct.

When you said that you didn't like that post, do you mean you personally didn't like it, or that you thought it was scummy?

[Accountant]

I know conftown tends to slack off, which is why I was prodding Charloux to get off their ass. Conftown

shouldn't

be slacking off, IMO, especially not in a game as small as this one.

[Accountant]

It was more like a passive-aggressive jab than anything.

[Accountant]

It's LyLo. Please do not recklessly vote or the mafia might be able to quickhammer.

The night kill is extremely surprising to me. I'd have easily put down money that JaeReed lasted the night no matter what happened. Either they're scum, and will not die at night, or they're town, in which case scum has a roleblocker(since that's the only setup where cop and doctor both exist). In that case, scum has no reason to kill them, because they can simply roleblock Jae every night to prevent them from healing people, and keeping them alive gives mafia an easy target to push during LyLo, since many people will be suspicious of them.

The only reason, therefore, that I can think of for mafia to have killed JaeReed is that they were afraid JaeReed was onto them and would get them lynched in LyLo. I'm going to go check their ISO.

[Accountant]

^That explanation is unnecessary and looks like an attempt at selling a narrative. Now you can come back and tell us who is scum based on who JaeReed was scum-reading. But you could have easily just done that in the same post instead of setting the stage. It's fake.

Accountant is alive in LyLo when no PR hunting needed to be done last night = Accountant is scum

You are saying that I am attempting to sell a narrative of JaeReed being killed for reads. That's absolutely true. What I do not understand is how this links to me being scum. Do you think that I would not come to this conclusion as town? Do you think that I would post the names of who Jae was scumreading in the same post as town, but not as scum?

(For the record! I made the last post when lying in bed with my phone, and then decided it was way too late to try combing through ISOs on a mobile device, and went to sleep instead. So that's the reason )

[Accountant]

Manuel and Morning Tweet are Jae's two biggest scumreads. They've been kinda lowkey suspecting Manuel, specifically in 816 where they said they agreed with two reads list that both have Manuel near the bottom. In 784 and 798 they specifically say Manuel is an FoS if thatsit/ThinkBig flips town. In 781 they're pretty sure Manuel is town, but also mention they've only read up to page 13 and later say Manuel could be scum by PoE, so I assume they've changed their read on this.

Morning Tweet: This is a bit weirder. They've been saying MT is town, especially in 804, but in 862 - right before the lynch - they say they want to lynch Tweet. I could see Tweet panicking here and making the kill on JaeReed.

[Accountant]

@Tweet: Well, even if we buy that line of argument, it still makes sense to look into JaeReed's reads, because they're now flipped town and we know all their posts were coming from a town perspective. I'm not advocating that we should blindly sheep them and pick between you and Manuel to be lynched(and if anyone does, be very very wary of them). But their reads have an incredibly strong weight in my mind, because I know they're a strong player and I know they're town and I think there's a significance chance they were killed for their reads.

[Accountant]

I didn't realize Jae was that experienced. I can see your point.

But you saw their skill level for your own eyes, right?

[Accountant]

@Manuel: Under that chain of logic, Norska has to be confirmed scum to you. Am I right to say that you're advocating for a Norska lynch today?

[Accountant]

Who do you personally scumread, Norska? Disregard Jae for a moment.

[Accountant]

I find it hard to believe that you came to the exact same conclusions as JaeReed about the identity of the scumteam. It's not impossible, but I find it very difficult to believe.

[Accountant]

@Accountant, why is it hard to believe Norska has the same reads as Jae?

Well, Norska scumreading you and Manuel isn't unbelievable. It's just that it looked to me like he was merely parroting JaeReed without having any real opinion(something he has been doing all game IMO) and so his reads being the same as Jae's would of course make me raise an eyebrow.

[Accountant]

VLA 36 hours. I absolutely hate to ghost you guys during LyLo, especially as the IC, but I have an important debate tournament.

[Accountant]

Loopdan, why am I scum? You said you suspected me for not dying. Is that the extent of your reasoning, or do you have more?

[Accountant]

Regarding 333, I felt that what WCS did was already letting the cat out of the bag. Either the mafia is competent enough to pick up on it, and there's no point telling him to stop talking, or they're not, in which case it's better not to draw attention to it. I felt that the possibility of the latter was strong enough to refrain from commenting, especially since this is a newbie. Furthermore, I don't have any extra motivation to do this as scum. If I want to point it out for towncred, then I'd definitely do it ASAP. But if I want to not say anything and silently kill WCS at night, there's no reason for me to give a delayed stop in 379.

What do you mean convenient? In 358, both were fairly obvious town to me. Do you think that having obvious reads is scummy behavior?

492 - How is this scummy? Given that I've been pushing Misa pretty hard in the lead up to that, it can't be that I was scum who was keeping their options open and not making a committed push.

509 - Expand! Heebie jeebies don't come from nowhere. I'm more than happy to engage with you on this, but a flat "they're giving me heebie jeebies" is very difficult to talk about.

571 - Because at that point Misa had done nothing that was town in my eyes.

596 - What is SCFWR?

622 - Yes, I am. Would you prefer I come out and say "hey guys, WCS is a PR. I guess we know who's going to die at night, winly face"? Especially with the doctor outed?

I've also not seen Accountant tunneling here, which I've seen before from town!Accountant.

Firstly this is a bad way of using meta; you can't seriously believe I tunnel like clockwork when I'm town and don't tunnel when I'm scum. Secondly, I pushed Charloux pretty hard D1.

[Accountant]

Well, a Manuel/Tweet is the obvious interpretation. What I really find myself going back and forth about is Loopdan. At times he seems very townie - at others he seems clueless, or even scummy. I'm very interested as to why he seems to be universally townread.

@Manuel: What do you have to say about my addressing why I don't think 492 was scummy?

[Accountant]

The main reason why i was scumreading Accountant though was how hard he pushed Misa when his only reasoning for her being scum was PoE.

You make it sound like PoE is a very weak reasoning. Personally I think that PoE is a very powerful tool and an extremely strong method of catching scum. Since it's easier for town to look scum than for scum to look town, it's far easier to identify people you're confident are townies than people you're confident are scum. Therefore, we can see how PoE is a very useful tool, and it's only natural for me to apply it in that situation.

[Accountant]

SCFWR is "scum caught for wrong reason." But that's a tell I've seen backfire, so I'm not giving it much weight. Keep in mind those are my notes on Accountant's posts, not an attempt at presenting an airtight case.

I mean, sure, scum caught for wrong reason is a legitimate tell in many circumstances. In that case I'd like to know why you interpreted my post as scum caught for wrong reasons rather than town getting wagoned for wrong reasons.

[Accountant]

What are your other reads Loop?