Open 657: JK9++ (Game over)

[Creature]

Though, I think it's better to have PRs to coordinate right now.

Killing two town PRs would leave town without control tonight. Killing VT could let town earn info tonight.

[Tiger moth]

That is an absolutely terrible plan. We literally have a guaranteed scumkill if we lynch Charlie. Why are you opposing it?

How is it guaranteed? It's only a 66.6% chance, and I don't think he is scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

If I am scum, it's 2:1:1 -> I kill a villager claim with 1/3 chance to hit scum, scum kills me, 2/3 villager scum wins, 1/3 town wins, I don't win.

If I am town, I have a pretty good chance to win by lynching Charlie.

[MiniDeathStar]

That is an absolutely terrible plan. We literally have a guaranteed scumkill if we lynch Charlie. Why are you opposing it?

How is it guaranteed? It's only a 66.6% chance, and I don't think he is scum.

66.7% is better than 33.3%.

[MiniDeathStar]

If I am scum, it's 2:1:1 -> I kill a villager claim with 1/3 chance to hit scum, scum kills me, 2/3 villager scum wins, 1/3 town wins, I don't win.

If I am town, I have a pretty good chance to win by lynching Charlie.

And like, even if you think I'm a bulletproof SK, it would go like:

2:1:1 ->
I hit scum, scum hits me -> 2:1 -> town lynch me, town wins
I hit villager, scum hits me -> 1:1:1 -> could go either way

[MiniDeathStar]

(and by either way I mean 50% town win 50% scum win 0% SK!Mini win)

[MiniDeathStar]

So. Now that we've established I literally can't win as scum by following the plan I suggested, but have a pretty good chance to win as town, can we start trusting me again?

[Charloux]

Testing 123

[Charloux]

Thank god... There is a crazy guy in the same building as me who decided to insult feminists online. And since the building uses the same IP address for some reason, i got blocked from posting for the last 3 days!

[Charloux]

The reason Kop was killed, was likely to reduce the number of VT's to make them look like better targets, while keeping the PR number high enough to hide in.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh god I totally hate those dudebros. Glad to have you back Charlie!

Yes, I am also a feminist.

---

Charlie, you scum or town? If you're town, what do you think about vengekilling Creature the scum?

[Charloux]

I don't really see Scum!Creature killing Lane. 1)Less people to hide in 2)The group with less people with scum would be targeted today. He should know that the VT-scum would target the PR's as well, shrinking them in size. And today's menu among the PR's would consist of him and me. He get's lynched=Game over. I get lynched, i kill him=Game over. If i had died last night, then there would be no debate at all.

[MiniDeathStar]

Scum!Creature had to kill lane, because we agreed yesterday that if bang flips scum he 100% "vigs" lane. If he hadn't killed lane, he'd have been lynched 100% today.

Anyway Charlie, if you're town, you should just get yourself lynched and vengekill scum!Creature (or die if you're scum yourself), and tomorrow it'll be 2 villagers vs the last scum. I think it's the best shot town has right now.

(and before you suggest I could be scum, I've explained how as scum I lose with this strategy 100% of the time)

[Charloux]

Not really, it all depends on who the last town likes more when it's 1V1V1.

Well, i'm living on borrowed time as it is, so i don't mind dying. But i think you should first give reads on who the VT!Scum is before we end the day.

[Secret Agent Jin]

I dont know who the scum i that is within the PRs but i do believe Charl is town.

@Moth What is your opinion on the possibility of Scum!MDS?

[MiniDeathStar]

Right now I think it's Tiger moth. 70% confident. But no worries, we have time. No need to rush and lynch *now*. I just want to 100% lynch you today because that guarantees the PR scum loses.

I'll explain it again. Assume I'm scum and you vengekill Creature. I'll be the only PR claim left and confirmed scum.

Night 3 starts as 2:1:1. Fake villager shoots me, I shoot a villager claim, this is 1/3 town win, 2/3 win for the villager scum so they should definitely shoot me.

If I'm 1-shot BP SK, town has even *better* odds.
2:1:1 ->
I kill a villager (67%), mafia hits my vest -> 1:1:1 -> no lynch -> mafia knows me, I don't know them. They kill me, I shoot randomly and kill either town (mafia wins) or mafia (town wins). I don't win.
2:1:1 ->
I kill mafia (33%), mafia hits my vest -> 2:1 -> I'm confirmed scum and town lynch me -> town wins

In either case, other scum has the best odds at victory (up to 67%) by shooting me.

In either case, as scum I'll lose 100% of the time. If I am suggesting this, I can't be scum. I just can't.

But if you kill the scum (Creature), town may win it tomorrow if we discover who's the most likely mafia out of the 3 villagers. If you decide to get cute and kill me, town's chances drop significantly. So like, please don't do that or I'll be incredibly salty.

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, I can't comprehend why town would still not trust me after everything I did and after I signed my victory away by advocating a Charlie lynch.

I'm disappointed.

[Charloux]

Oh yeah, people here are too greedy to help mafia lynch SK(Or vise versa) when it's 1v1v1.

[MiniDeathStar]

That's just silly. If we get there and I'm scum, both town and mafia would literally win 50% of the time if they no lynch, so they WILL no lynch and claim their best odds.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also, all of that was under the assumption I'm scum. But I'm not scum.

As town I know that either Charlie or Creature is the PR scum, and I know the PR scum (regardless which one) always loses to a Charlie lynch. So today that can be taken care of, and meanwhile we can collectively determine which one of the villagers is the most likely scum to help tomorrow's decision.

[Creature]

Wished we had some sort of coordination.

[MiniDeathStar]

That would have been easy if town just kept their trust in me. Idk how many more times I have to prove that literally everything I've been doing all game has come from a town mindset and utterly destructive to scum!me. Jfc it's super stressful to have to reassert myself over and over and over.

[Secret Agent Jin]

No one place a vote in case of a flash hammer.

@Moth and Deers: Is there interest for a MDS lynch?

[MiniDeathStar]

Can we please focus on the villager scum today?

[MiniDeathStar]

And before you scums get ideas when I say villager (looking at you Creature), we are *not* lynching in the villagers today. We lynch Charlie, he pops Creature and we go into 2:1 LYLO tomorrow with a suspect we'll have already discussed.