Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Dunhallym]

Sorry I had a busier day than expected. I probably won't have time to do much before Tuesday evening.

[Tenshii]

@Anyone, Why is Jaack your townread?

I see how Tenshii misinterpreted it, and I'm interpreting it to mean that you scumread ssbm's abrupt change of opinion (which was later revealed to be a reaction test), which I'm pretty sure is what you meant.

What posts are you guys talking about?

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch. The odds are good and I think that SS's points in 322 are good enough that my townread there has faded. But I'm not locked in there.

SS doesn't even talk about Dunhall there.

[Dunhallym]

@Tenshii
Ssmart talked about me in 322. Il answer his points when I am on computer Tuesday most likely.
As for my town read on Jaack its mainly from the start of the game but I plan on a reread because there are a few things that start to bother me lately but again it will have to wait some.

[Something_Smart]

@Anyone, Why is Jaack your townread?

My reasoning in 210 still applies. It's really just that all of his posts seem to be transparently working for the benefit of the town, in a way that would be very difficult to fake.

I see how Tenshii misinterpreted it, and I'm interpreting it to mean that you scumread ssbm's abrupt change of opinion (which was later revealed to be a reaction test), which I'm pretty sure is what you meant.

What posts are you guys talking about?

I was referring to what I didn't like about Dunhallym's 297, which details why she thought ssbm's suggestion was scummy. She mentioned how you misinterpreted her post in 303-- you thought that Dunhallym was calling you scum, rather than ssbm-- and she wanted to be sure that I interpreted it correctly. (I did.)

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch. The odds are good and I think that SS's points in 322 are good enough that my townread there has faded. But I'm not locked in there.

SS doesn't even talk about Dunhall there.

The last paragraph of 322 was referring to 297.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack
What are your thoughts on SSmart ?

[Creature]

ZZZX has been prodded.

[Jaack]

I feel like most of his posts have been pretty town.

I also think his tenativeness (is that a word?) with the ssbm lynch is more likely to come from town than scum. He was the alternate option (or at least arcangel had been, and there really was no counterwagon).

[ProHawk]

So I see why this matrix makes it easy to overlook scum-hunting... lol

FMPOV, ZZZX, SS, and Dunhallym all have a good chance of being scum.

A re-read of ZZZX seems pretty light in terms of content posts. And

wait this is a nightless?

Seems forced.

Sorry this was a bit light on the overall, but I think I want to start here today and don't have a lot of time

VOTE: ZZZX

[Tenshii]

My reasoning in 210 still applies. It's really just that all of his posts seem to be transparently working for the benefit of the town, in a way that would be very difficult to fake.

I don't get it. Can you quote posts that show this?

[Something_Smart]

His first three posts (7, 21, 36) are already discussing how to make use of the setup in a way that benefits town. Given that as scum, he very likely would have discussed whether or not he would lie about his picks, I think that would have made him hesitant to take the lead on claiming and keeping track of picks.

His theory points in 92 are similar in the way that he just puts information out there, something I think scum would be self-conscious about, and also how he admits that he doesn't support plans that go beyond D1; scum already generally plan things out and this setup makes it even more likely that they'd be planning out their moves ahead of time.

I like how in 123 he didn't attack my slot for being confused. I also like how in 293 he admitted that he was widely townread but didn't try to use it to accomplish anything, instead rejecting a proposed townblock with him in it. (And one that he easily could have accepted as scum given that he was townreading me and Gamma.)

It's a bit hard to explain, but his posts just give off a sincere-town vibe that I've found almost always comes from town. (Except for Nahdia. ) The best other example that I can think of off the top of my head is Transcend in this game.

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. Like, yes, he changed his mind abruptly. Yes, it might have been desperate. But he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable and as scum he definitely would have realized that doing a 180 with his reads and pushing a completely new person would not have been a good way to avoid being lynched. (Scum try to avoid being conspicuous, so a better plan as scum would have been to take his strongest scumread and start pushing it really hard.) In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

There are 3 points I’d like to answer:
1) “It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. “
2) “he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable”
3) “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

1) I had expressed suspicions on Jin/ssbm for a long time already and had stated in a previous post my intent to vote him, so no that was not a justification, I was simply stating that ssbm’s post hadn’t changed my mind. I won’t go back to my reasons to suspect him, reading my posts should be enough.
2) When ssbm made his post and the Tenshii vote he was at l-2. I had made it clear that I meant to vote him, and Gamma also had said that Jin was the best lynch. There was no real alternative up there was no real case against Arc, and my wagon never really took up. Besides, I thought there was a connection between you and ssbm. I never said so in the thread because I didn’t have the time to make the case and thought it was pretty pointless anyway before we had a scum flip.
3) You are correct that I probably didn’t give it enough thoughts. Truth is that my suspicion level had reached the point where I was tunneling in spite of my efforts to keep an open mind. But for the second part, why would scum me need to “make this flailing townie look bad”? First, he already looked bad, and I don’t see how my post made him look worse. Second, scum me would have known that he would turn town so why stick my neck out and risk to look bad when I could just have sat back? Especially since lynching Tenshii would actually have been even better for scum me than lynching ssbm (it left the original pool of 3 and Tenshii can’t be my partner).

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?
- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?
- You said in your catch up that “I feel like there is exactly one scum in ProHawk/Jin.” What are your actual thoughts on Prohawk.

I'm currently making readings. I'm really tired this week so I will try to do a bit every night and then give full thoughts this week-end.
Gamma and ZZZX really need to contribute.

[Creature]

Searching ZZZX replacement.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 2.0

Votecount 2.1

[0] Jaack
[0] Something_Smart
[0] Gamma Emerald
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[0] Dunhallym
[1] ZZZX - ProHawk

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Jaack, Something_Smart, Gamma Emerald, Tenshii, Dunhallym, ZZZX

7 players are alive and 4 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-16 15:00:00)

[Gamma Emerald]

Looking back I don't like how Something Smart sheeped ssbm on that idea of lynching Tenshii
VOTE: SSmart

[Something_Smart]

@SSmart

It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. Like, yes, he changed his mind abruptly. Yes, it might have been desperate. But he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable and as scum he definitely would have realized that doing a 180 with his reads and pushing a completely new person would not have been a good way to avoid being lynched. (Scum try to avoid being conspicuous, so a better plan as scum would have been to take his strongest scumread and start pushing it really hard.) In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

There are 3 points I’d like to answer:
1) “It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. “
2) “he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable”
3) “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

1) I had expressed suspicions on Jin/ssbm for a long time already and had stated in a previous post my intent to vote him, so no that was not a justification, I was simply stating that ssbm’s post hadn’t changed my mind. I won’t go back to my reasons to suspect him, reading my posts should be enough.

It wasn't necessary to post that if your whole point was that it didn't change your mind. You did, at the very least, use that post as an additional reason to suspect him, and a shallow reason at that.

2) When ssbm made his post and the Tenshii vote he was at l-2. I had made it clear that I meant to vote him, and Gamma also had said that Jin was the best lynch. There was no real alternative up there was no real case against Arc, and my wagon never really took up. Besides, I thought there was a connection between you and ssbm. I never said so in the thread because I didn’t have the time to make the case and thought it was pretty pointless anyway before we had a scum flip.

It was definitely looking likely that he would be lynched, but that doesn't mean that he had no shot at changing the lynch onto someone else. Your point was predicated on his action being something that scum would do as a desperate bid to avoid being lynched, which I suppose I understand how someone could think that but to me it seems like the exact opposite of what desperate scum would do.

3) You are correct that I probably didn’t give it enough thoughts. Truth is that my suspicion level had reached the point where I was tunneling in spite of my efforts to keep an open mind. But for the second part, why would scum me need to “make this flailing townie look bad”?

The most obvious reason that comes to mind is to make sure that your mislynch doesn't slip through your fingers. If you could drive home the idea of his reaction test being scum just completely losing it, then that would be the last nail in his coffin and it would likely destroy his credibility.

First, he already looked bad, and I don’t see how my post made him look worse. Second, scum me would have known that he would turn town so why stick my neck out and risk to look bad when I could just have sat back?

You don't see how you made him look worse? You accused him of being incoherent scum. And like I said, when momentum on scum's planned mislynch seems to be stalling, scum will often assume a much more active role out of fear that the wagon will disappear or switch.

Especially since lynching Tenshii would actually have been even better for scum me than lynching ssbm (it left the original pool of 3 and Tenshii can’t be my partner).

This is a fair point. But just because it would be better in a vacuum doesn't mean it would be the better strategy; there are a lot of other factors to consider.

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

- You said in your catch up that “I feel like there is exactly one scum in ProHawk/Jin.” What are your actual thoughts on Prohawk.

Hmm, I'm gonna quickly go look at the interactions that prompted me to say that.
~~~
Okay, so 119 and 129 look pretty nasty knowing that Jin is town. I haven't got any super icky feelings from his recent posts (though I do have a question for him about 332, see below), so he's a moderate scum lean. I could see him being paired with either you or Tenshii.

Looking back I don't like how Something Smart sheeped ssbm on that idea of lynching Tenshii
VOTE: SSmart

Except I didn't do that?

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

[Dunhallym]

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

[Dunhallym]

Sorry wrong manipulation I didn't mean to post
@mod can you please edit those two posts?

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

1) I had expressed suspicions on Jin/ssbm for a long time already and had stated in a previous post my intent to vote him, so no that was not a justification, I was simply stating that ssbm’s post hadn’t changed my mind. I won’t go back to my reasons to suspect him, reading my posts should be enough.

It wasn't necessary to post that if your whole point was that it didn't change your mind. You did, at the very least, use that post as an additional reason to suspect him, and a shallow reason at that.

Take a broader look. I had made a rather long post in which I expressed my intent to vote ssbm. Then I made a quick one asking Prohawk his thoughts on Tenshii. This could be seen as me expressing that I was considering switching to Tenshii. I actually thought that it was what had prompted ssbm to switch to Tenshii, because several people had expressed suspicions on Tenshii who looked lynchable. So I made this post to clarify what my position was.

2) When ssbm made his post and the Tenshii vote he was at l-2. I had made it clear that I meant to vote him, and Gamma also had said that Jin was the best lynch. There was no real alternative up there was no real case against Arc, and my wagon never really took up. Besides, I thought there was a connection between you and ssbm. I never said so in the thread because I didn’t have the time to make the case and thought it was pretty pointless anyway before we had a scum flip.

It was definitely looking likely that he would be lynched, but that doesn't mean that he had no shot at changing the lynch onto someone else. Your point was predicated on his action being something that scum would do as a desperate bid to avoid being lynched, which I suppose I understand how someone could think that but to me it seems like the exact opposite of what desperate scum would do.

You forget that there were two things in ssbm’s post: the push on Tenshii but most of all the whole “I see that my lynch is the best for town I’ll self-vote but let me make my big post beforehand…”. That’s what I called the “desperate gambit”.

3) You are correct that I probably didn’t give it enough thoughts. Truth is that my suspicion level had reached the point where I was tunneling in spite of my efforts to keep an open mind. But for the second part, why would scum me need to “make this flailing townie look bad”?

The most obvious reason that comes to mind is to make sure that your mislynch doesn't slip through your fingers. If you could drive home the idea of his reaction test being scum just completely losing it, then that would be the last nail in his coffin and it would likely destroy his credibility.

First, he already looked bad, and I don’t see how my post made him look worse. Second, scum me would have known that he would turn town so why stick my neck out and risk to look bad when I could just have sat back?

You don't see how you made him look worse? You accused him of being incoherent scum. And like I said, when momentum on scum's planned mislynch seems to be stalling, scum will often assume a much more active role out of fear that the wagon will disappear or switch.

He had already been incoherent when he voted me and I had already said so: he had said he thought me town in a prior post, then he came back, said there was no reason to vote Arc/you because Arc had done nothing suspicious (Arc hadn’t done much would be closer to the truth) which to me means null and voted me because he was suspicious of Prohawk and found possible links between us. This reversal is one of the things that made me suspect a link between you and ssbm.
Now, I don’t know for you but as scum I generally don’t have a “planned mislynch”. Sure I will push one or several people because I pick on things they say or do that look scummy but if another mislynch happens at the end of the day, why should I care? I can then complain on how everyone should have listened to me and that there’s surely scum on the mislynch that happened.

Especially since lynching Tenshii would actually have been even better for scum me than lynching ssbm (it left the original pool of 3 and Tenshii can’t be my partner).

This is a fair point. But just because it would be better in a vacuum doesn't mean it would be the better strategy; there are a lot of other factors to consider.

OK. What other factors are you thinking of in this particular situation?
I’ll cut my post to answer other points or it will be awfully long.

[Dunhallym]

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack, two questions for you:
what are your current thoughts on ZZZX? I agree that his absence makes it hard to gauge for relationships but you don't give an opinion on the player?
Since you think that Gamma/Tenshii is unlikely, why do you put Tenshii on the same level as Prohawk and me for today's lynch?

[Jaack]

@Jaack, two questions for you:
what are your current thoughts on ZZZX? I agree that his absence makes it hard to gauge for relationships but you don't give an opinion on the player?
Since you think that Gamma/Tenshii is unlikely, why do you put Tenshii on the same level as Prohawk and me for today's lynch?

ZZZX? His early thoughts were meh. His later posts were vacant of content. I don't really have a stong opinion there.

As for Tenshii, I guess it probably makes more sense to lynch ProHawk if Tenshii seems like the best lynch simply because ProHawk is in more scumteams, but my primary interest in lynching them is because I think that they make solid sense as a pair.

[ZZZX]

Ugh forgot to mention i am vla until 13th of this month. When i finish my last final.

[ProHawk]

.... I may need to do some re-evaluating...

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

This wagon can't be ALL town can it?

[ProHawk]

Just kinda paranoid he shifted from a scumread to a townread on me after I townread him but other than that I feel okay on townreading him.

It was more of the way you interacted with me and questioned me.

@Anyone, Why is Jaack your townread?

His posts have a decent trajectory of trying to figure out where scum is hiding. What is your read there?

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

[Dunhallym]

.... I may need to do some re-evaluating...

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

This wagon can't be ALL town can it?

You are right that it's unlikely but it happens. It did in my first game.