Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Gamma Emerald]

I brlieve I've already explained, but Pro's immense desire to lynch me doesn't feel scum-motivated. I get it can be, but I just don't think it is.

[ProHawk]

Sorry, been a busy weekend! Will catch up and see what we got.

[Dunhallym]

@ Tenshii, Prohawk
Could you both explain which points in your interaction with the other is leading to you having a townread on him?

[Creature]

Searching Tenshii replacement.

[Tenshii]

Wait so am I replaced?

[Tenshii]

Fuck my bad though for my activity.

[Tenshii]

Uh long story short, when he replied back to me with my scum case on him, it felt as if he was really confident in the idea he was town. And his replies had the implication that my case didn't make logical sense, which tbf fmpov I initially thought it did.

[ProHawk]

@ Tenshii, Prohawk
Could you both explain which points in your interaction with the other is leading to you having a townread on him?

It was after the back and forth and him changing his read on me based on actually reading and understanding my posts. If he were scum pushing a mis-lynch, I would think he would have been a little less flexible in his read and would have kept up his push.

[ProHawk]

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

According to the matrix, she has a good chance of flipping scum. According to play, I don't think she will be flipping scum. So no, not voting there... whats your case there? Why not ZZZZX? Why do you have a town read there?

[ProHawk]

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"

[ProHawk]

We're not lynching ZZZX because he's probably town

This is a false statement.

[ProHawk]

Wait, is ZZZX getting replaced?

[Gamma Emerald]

ZZZX hasn't posted for quite a while.
I want thoughts on the current lynch options when he returns.

[Dunhallym]

ZZZX hasn't posted for quite a while.
I want thoughts on the current lynch options when he returns.

What are your reads Gamma?
Not just on the "lynch options" (which are?) but on everyone.
And for that matter, can everyone give his reads? Not taking into account matrix or possible pairings or probabilities, just reads? Bonus points if they go with some explanations.

One more question: do you think it benefits scum to name their partner in his picks or not and why?

[ProHawk]

Are you asking for individual reads? Or if I can tell you what Gamma's reads are?

[Jaack]

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"

I think that the pair of you and Tenshii is the most likely pair, and I believe I have already explained this.

Tenshii's only other possible scumpartner is Gamma, which isn't a pair that makes much sense to me.

You could be paired with SS or Dunhallym. Neither of these stick out to me as notably more likely than the average pair, but neither looks paticularly impossible.

PEdit for Dunhallym-

Independent of the chart my town to scum list would look something like
Something_Smart
Gamma
Dunhallym
ZZZX
ProHawk
Tenshii

I'm not sure if the last question is an everyone question or a gamma only question, but I'll answer it anyway.

Naming your partner in a scumpair is a relatively riskier move than not naming them. It probably makes them less likely to get lynched but should they get lynched, you'll have unintentionally confirmed someone as town. I think the net result is that it doesn't end up mattering much, but I can see scum taking a first look and assuming its beneficial.

[Dunhallym]

Are you asking for individual reads? Or if I can tell you what Gamma's reads are?

individual reads.

[Dunhallym]

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"

I think that the pair of you and Tenshii is the most likely pair, and I believe I have already explained this.

Tenshii's only other possible scumpartner is Gamma, which isn't a pair that makes much sense to me.

You could be paired with SS or Dunhallym. Neither of these stick out to me as notably more likely than the average pair, but neither looks paticularly impossible.

PEdit for Dunhallym-

Independent of the chart my town to scum list would look something like
Something_Smart
Gamma
Dunhallym
ZZZX
ProHawk
Tenshii

I'm not sure if the last question is an everyone question or a gamma only question, but I'll answer it anyway.

Naming your partner in a scumpair is a relatively riskier move than not naming them. It probably makes them less likely to get lynched but should they get lynched, you'll have unintentionally confirmed someone as town. I think the net result is that it doesn't end up mattering much, but I can see scum taking a first look and assuming its beneficial.

You said at the beginning of the day that "you didn't scumread Prohawk". Has this read changed (and if so why) or does it mean that you consider all above Prohawk as leaning town?

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: You said at the beginning of the day that you "didn't scumread Prohawk".
"" in a wrong position.

[ProHawk]

I am not scumreading ProHawk. Just doing some due diligence.

As for Tenshii, I guess it probably makes more sense to lynch ProHawk if Tenshii seems like the best lynch simply because ProHawk is in more scumteams, but my primary interest in lynching them is because I think that they make solid sense as a pair.

So I say again, you are wanting to lynch me because you think that Tenshii is the best lynch, but if he is the best lynch the only pair that you seem to feel is plausible is a ProHawk-Tenshii, so you want to lynch me because I have a higher probability of being scum based on "math". Even though that "math" led you to believe that Dunhallym is simply the best lynch...

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch.

[Jaack]

EBWOP: You said at the beginning of the day that you "didn't scumread Prohawk".
"" in a wrong position.

I believe that was 317 you were referring to?

Well it's true I wasn't scumreading ProHawk at that time, but by that point I was plenty aware of the Tenshii-ProHawk connection and wanted to get a bit more evidence before heading in that direction. I didn't want to put them on alert before I was ready so I worded my ProHawk read as friendly as possible.

Of course they, like pretty much everyone else, were too absent for me to get much from observing.

So I say again, you are wanting to lynch me because you think that Tenshii is the best lynch, but if he is the best lynch the only pair that you seem to feel is plausible is a ProHawk-Tenshii, so you want to lynch me because I have a higher probability of being scum based on "math". Even though that "math" led you to believe that Dunhallym is simply the best lynch...

Math independently makes Dunhallym the best lynch. My reads independently make Tenshii the best lynch.

Combining both makes you the best lynch.

If I'm scumreading Tenshii, I have to be aware that his only possible partners are you and Gamma.

I don't think Gamma+Tenshii makes much sense based on Gamma's behavoir.

Which leads me to the conclusion that if Tenshii is scum, you are almost certainly scum as well. However, there is a possibility that you are scum outside of being Tenshii's partner, which makes you the better lynch.

To put it another way, here are the possible four scenarios:
1. ScumProHawk and ScumTenshii
2. ScumProHawk and TownTenshii
3. TownProHawk and ScumTenshii
4. TownProHawk and TownTenshii

I think scenario 1 is most likely. In that case, lynch order doesn't matter.
I think scenario 3 is close to impossible, but if it were true it would be best to lynch Tenshii first

In scenario 2, your lynch is obviously better to come first.

In scenario 4, it is also better to lynch you first because it eliminates more possible pairings.

[ProHawk]

So when I flip town, are you going to lynch Tenshii next and claim the game is won? Or are you going to flip Gamma before Tenshii?

[Something_Smart]

We should probably stop this back-and-forth soon, and I agree with you that I want to hear what other people think of it.

@SSmart
OK for the Tenshii case and thanks for the Gamma points. About the first part of your post, just one thing I want to answer: maybe you're right on you being obviously town but this is my second game here and I've never played with any of you. So meta is not going to help me. I've tried to have a look at previous town or scum for a few of you but honestly I don't have the time or energy to do it seriously enough to get a real feel.
Other points I want to answer to:

It's not always the responsibility of town to convince others to vote with him. And it's weird that you say this when you scumread ssbm but didn't vote him until Tenshii "reminded" you that you ought to vote?

If you reread my ISO completely and are being honest, you'll see why I hadn't yet voted ssbm: I didn't want to put him at l-1 yet in the post where I said to consider my vote on him, then someone else (Tenshii IIRC) put him at l-1 and I didn't want to hammer yet either. I only voted after ssbm was back at l-2.

That's a reasonable explanation, although I think hesitance to put someone at L-1 in a micro (especially in this setup) is somewhat uncalled for, especially for someone who believes that one should always be voting on one's reads.

You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".

This is either a massive reading comprehension failure or a flat-out lie.

I've quoted your three posts. You also talked about the "town block" idea, but I don't see anything that indicates you had guessed ssbm's true intents and not taken his post at face value (that's what I meant but didn't chose my words well). If I'm dumb or suck at English comprehension then so be it.

Oh, that makes more sense. So what you're saying is that I thought that ssbm meant what he said and didn't realize he was doing a reaction test. Which is definitely true. But you obviously didn't realize it either; in fact, you took his read flip-flop as another argument against him.

Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

I mean, that basically is what it is. You do have a high probability of being scum, and you made a bad post, and I'm pressuring you because of it.

You miss my point here: I don't have a problem with you pressuring a post you think is bad. I have a problem because I think you are not using this pressure to evaluate me but rather that you found a pretext to suspect me and are using it.

Now, I'd like to hear what others think of our exchange because I have too many scumreads right now.
More to come

I have been using the pressure to evaluate you. I just haven't been doing it publicly. I've been taking the stuff you're saying into account and honestly it's leaving me conflicted. Some of the things you say sound genuine and others sound like you're intentionally twisting facts to support your argument. So I'm still working through my read on you.

I brlieve I've already explained, but Pro's immense desire to lynch me doesn't feel scum-motivated. I get it can be, but I just don't think it is.

Where did he show an intense desire to lynch you? It seems right now that he has an intense desire to lynch ZZZX.

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

According to the matrix, she has a good chance of flipping scum. According to play, I don't think she will be flipping scum. So no, not voting there... whats your case there? Why not ZZZZX? Why do you have a town read there?

Uhh... either she does have a good chance of flipping scum or she doesn't. In 332 you put her in the same tier as ZZZX, and now you want to lynch ZZZX.
And regarding my townreads, his play has been low effort, but it doesn't look like busy scum just posting to keep afloat. And I also think his "wait this is a nightless? " was genuine.

We're not lynching ZZZX because he's probably town

This is a false statement.

Even if you disagree, his only likely partner is Dunhallym. It's the same reason we're not lynching Tenshii today. If you scumread ZZZX, vote Dunhallym.

Wait, is ZZZX getting replaced?

He was on V/LA until today.

[Gamma Emerald]

ZZZX hasn't posted for quite a while.
I want thoughts on the current lynch options when he returns.

What are your reads Gamma?
Not just on the "lynch options" (which are?) but on everyone.
And for that matter, can everyone give his reads? Not taking into account matrix or possible pairings or probabilities, just reads? Bonus points if they go with some explanations.

One more question: do you think it benefits scum to name their partner in his picks or not and why?

From town to scum
Dunhallym
Prohawk
Tenshii
Jaack
ZZZX
Something_Smart
I don't think in this case scum would give their buddy as a fake pair, but it would serve the purpose of falsely PoE clearing them.

[Jaack]

So when I flip town, are you going to lynch Tenshii next and claim the game is won? Or are you going to flip Gamma before Tenshii?

Neither because, as I've said multiple times, I don't think Tenshii and Gamma is a likely pair at all.

That being said, this leading question stuff is making me more confident in who's the scumteam