Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

Alisae · Post Post #2300 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:03 pm

If Tywin flips scum, Sonia is town to me.

The reason why I said it felt forced was that he immediately jumped on Sonia about the NK.
I bought it at the time, but I took more time to think about it before I came to the conclusion that it felt forced.
Not to mention Tywin continued to push Sonia when Sonia wasn't responding well to the pressure.
So I could see why you think I'm all over the place with that.

Pine · Post Post #2301 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:04 pm

In post 2290, Alisae wrote:Pine do you think Cloud incriminated Kyouko?

Entirely inconclusive. CK was pretty neutral on them, but seemed to be buddying up in some posts. The buddying could be construed as trying to foster a Town ally, or it could be supporting a scum comrade, or any number of other things. So like I said, inconclusive.

Is there something in particular you'd like to point to that you think indicates otherwise? (genuine curiosity)

PEdit: I just went through Cloudkicker's ISO looking for references to Sonia, and concluded that she's not scum with CK. CK started out aggressive and attacking with her, then ended up giving her a blanket TR and supporting her in a couple of places. That reads to me like someone who is looking to push an attack, seeing it not working, then shifting gears to turn them into an ally. Given that Cloudkicker knew scums' identities, it rules her out too.

Personally, this gives me solid TRs on Gamma, Alisae (with the caveat that she is either Vig or SK), Nero, and Sonia, in addition to TRs on Titus and Cabd.

Primary scumread is Tywin, based mostly off of Cloudkicker's ISO, need to drill down on some more. Honestly, though, with so many quality Townreads, it makes PoE a lot easier.

Titus · Post Post #2302 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:06 pm

Interesting. Why isn't that post flagging down SSM?

Which post in Cloudkicker'S ISO have you scumreading Tywin?

Alisae · Post Post #2303 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:07 pm

@Pine

In post 1872, CloudKicker wrote:Kyouko youre really underestimating what a traitor would to to indicates hes the traitor to their scumteam

Cabd · Post Post #2304 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:08 pm

Hey titus; since syr isn't around i'm gonna throw some setup spec at you given flips+claims on the board.

Elbirn · Post Post #2305 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:08 pm

In post 2300, Alisae wrote:If Tywin flips scum, Sonia is town to me.

The reason why I said it felt forced was that he immediately jumped on Sonia about the NK.
I bought it at the time, but I took more time to think about it before I came to the conclusion that it felt forced.
Not to mention Tywin continued to push Sonia when Sonia wasn't responding well to the pressure.
So I could see why you think I'm all over the place with that.

Do you think it's scummy to push someone cracking under pressure, or..?

Pine · Post Post #2306 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:12 pm

In post 2302, Titus wrote:Interesting. Why isn't that post flagging down SSM?

Which post in Cloudkicker'S ISO have you scumreading Tywin?

Any of a dozen or so where he's hard defending Tywin. If he's not CK's teammate, I could see him putting up a token defense for the "I was right" Towncred, but not going to the effort of actually derailing the wagon on him. Cloudkicker went to the mat for Tywin.

In post 2303, Alisae wrote:@Pine
In post 1872, CloudKicker wrote:Kyouko youre really underestimating what a traitor would to to indicates hes the traitor to their scumteam

Ehhh, not really. That's a general crumb to anyone's listening, SSBM just happened to be the one he was engaging at the time. In context of a larger conversation about Traitors which he (if memory serves) did not initiate, it's entirely NAI.

Cabd · Post Post #2307 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:16 pm

In post 0, Cephrir wrote:Lapsa, Townie, lynched Day 1.
Lil Uzi Vert, Town Vanilla Cop, killed Night 1.
CloudKicker, Mafia Loved Traitor, killed Night 1.

Along with claims on the board means what we know of the setup right now is...

Town:
Vanilla Cop
1-shot Gunsmith
Vig
???

Scum:
???
Loved Traitor

OR

Town: Vanilla Cop
1-shot gunsmith
???
Some sort of protective role that blocked a kill last night

Scum:
???
Mafia Traitor

Third Party:
SK

With me so far?

Alisae · Post Post #2308 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:17 pm

I like the first one.

Cabd · Post Post #2309 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:19 pm

Because given that I'm a oneshot; there's already three "misleading" results: The "has a gun" on the vanilla cop; the "has a gun" on the town vig (or the "does not have a gun" on the third party SK with a knife) and the "does not have a gun" on the mafia traitor. What normal review board lets any more misleading results than that though on what is effectively a shitty weak PR. (My assumption is the setup was called town-sided and my role was thrown in at the last second as a "meh it'll make town have better odds" shit)

Titus · Post Post #2310 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:20 pm

In post 2307, Cabd wrote:
In post 0, Cephrir wrote:Lapsa, Townie, lynched Day 1.
Lil Uzi Vert, Town Vanilla Cop, killed Night 1.
CloudKicker, Mafia Loved Traitor, killed Night 1.

Along with claims on the board means what we know of the setup right now is...

Town:
Vanilla Cop
1-shot Gunsmith
Vig
???

Scum:
???
Loved Traitor

OR

Town: Vanilla Cop
1-shot gunsmith
???
Some sort of protective role that blocked a kill last night

Scum:
???
Mafia Traitor

Third Party:
SK

With me so far?

No

We have

A) Scum killed Cloud with Vig here
B) Scum killed Cloud with SK here
C) Protective heals ???? With Vig + SK here

All have vanilla cop and 1 shot gs

Aj The Epic · Post Post #2311 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:21 pm

Alisae wrote:I like the first one.

Can't fathom why.

Alisae · Post Post #2312 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:21 pm

In post 2305, Elbirn wrote:
In post 2300, Alisae wrote:If Tywin flips scum, Sonia is town to me.

The reason why I said it felt forced was that he immediately jumped on Sonia about the NK.
I bought it at the time, but I took more time to think about it before I came to the conclusion that it felt forced.
Not to mention Tywin continued to push Sonia when Sonia wasn't responding well to the pressure.
So I could see why you think I'm all over the place with that.
Do you think it's scummy to push someone cracking under pressure, or..?

Eh, it depends if they're being provacative or not.

But Tywin easily knew that Sonia could not respond well under pressure. She voted me up when I said she was overeacting, and she and Gamma got into some kind of fight.

xSoniaNevermindx · Post Post #2313 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:22 pm

I don't crack under pressure tyvm
I didn't crack under pressure when I was scum with a cop guilty on me
I wouldn't crack under a push

Aj The Epic · Post Post #2314 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:22 pm

In post 2313, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:I didn't crack under pressure when I was scum with a cop guilty on me

That's not pressure. That's the "Whelp" moment.

Alisae · Post Post #2315 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:23 pm

In post 2311, Aj The Epic wrote:
Alisae wrote:I like the first one.
Can't fathom why.

Cloud fliped Loved Traitor.

xSoniaNevermindx · Post Post #2316 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:24 pm

In post 2314, Aj The Epic wrote:
In post 2313, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:I didn't crack under pressure when I was scum with a cop guilty on me
That's not pressure. That's the "Whelp" moment.

I DON'T CRACK OKAY YOU BLOCK THING

Cabd · Post Post #2317 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:24 pm

Right titus I'm saying my role means vig+sk is too many false results for a gunsmith. Even MORE so if mafia doctor or town jailkeeper; that's like a third of all potential results N1

Alisae · Post Post #2318 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:25 pm

Actually newbie question, but humor me.

Whats the difference between a normal traitor and a loved traitor?

Titus · Post Post #2319 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:26 pm

In post 2317, Cabd wrote:Right titus I'm saying my role means vig+sk is too many false results for a gunsmith. Even MORE so if mafia doctor or town jailkeeper; that's like a third of all potential results N1

Not so sure. Gunsmith as negative utility is an interesting idea.

Cabd · Post Post #2320 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:26 pm

"loved" is a modifier that takes one extra vote to be lynched. I made a transcription error; both scenarios should have had the word loved next to traitor.

Titus · Post Post #2321 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:26 pm

In post 2318, Alisae wrote:Actually newbie question, but humor me.

Whats the difference between a normal traitor and a loved traitor?

Loved means he needs an extra vote to lynch.

Cabd · Post Post #2322 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:27 pm

Also once SSBM gets in here I think if I read day one right we're about to get another bombshell.

Elbirn · Post Post #2323 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:27 pm

In post 2306, Pine wrote:
In post 2302, Titus wrote:Interesting. Why isn't that post flagging down SSM?

Which post in Cloudkicker'S ISO have you scumreading Tywin?
Any of a dozen or so where he's hard defending Tywin. If he's not CK's teammate, I could see him putting up a token defense for the "I was right" Towncred, but not going to the effort of actually derailing the wagon on him. Cloudkicker went to the mat for Tywin.

I like your thoughts and all, but respectfully disagree again. I don't think a tywin wagon had any chance of going through, especially with a few voices sticking up for him the same way that cloud was (cabd was pretty vocal in Tywin's defense, I was an echo of the same sentiment, etc.)

So there was nothing to really lose by being so vocal in his defense, there wasn't going to be a lynch there. If Tywin is town then there was no possible mislynch to lose out on.

Aj The Epic · Post Post #2324 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:27 pm

Alisae wrote:
In post 2311, Aj The Epic wrote:
Alisae wrote:I like the first one.
Can't fathom why.
Cloud fliped Loved Traitor.

I'll remember to work on my sarcasm, or my sarcasm detection.

Cabd wrote:Right titus I'm saying my role means vig+sk is too many false results for a gunsmith. Even MORE so if mafia doctor or town jailkeeper; that's like a third of all potential results N1

I mean, I agree. Scum can't be stacked enough to balance out town 2x investigation types, 1 full shot vig, an SK and some protection. It's far too much for the overall gamestate.

Unless you're going REALLY far south and saying the protect came from a scum jail keeper. But I think 3 possible night kills in a normal sized game is too swingy to pass