Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think both of you are just too invested and should back off a bit, its easier to see interactions when youre outside tunnels and whatnot, alisea 2nd to last post was explicitiy scumtelling imo

alisea is bascially saying that shes flip flopping because of tywin and that is just lold

Alisae is not scum here, especially if we ever see scum!Tywin flip. Cloud's iso as a whole points me to [Tywin, Sonia, Transcend, Gamma] for scum in order of descending suspicion. Alisae definitely not scum, Cloud was hanging onto that mislynch as long as he could and when Alisae finally calmed down he immediately backed off and went for the next easiest mislynch in the lurker Lapsa

Titus who do you see me being paired scum with?

Don't know. Not enough data, but why would you care?

Because I wanna help you scumhunt?

That's not helping scumhunt. That's pushing me down a path, which unfortunately is a different theory all together.

Also, why are you voting me if convinced I am hunting?

VOTE: Tywin
Not anymore.

For those that don't understand, I freaked out when

I was under the pressure Tywin gave me. And cause I was in that state of mind, I reacted to shit out of desperation. However, Tywin knows I react this way when I'm under a ton of fucking pressure. I think he does anyways. I think his first step to fighting Titus was to pressure me and be like "If she flips scum you're fucked." Tywin knew the buttons to push with me, so he manipulated me and pushed them. But I think he knew that he should start pushing them.

Tywin, you seem so desperate, I'm calling your bluff.

Imo that textbook mafia overexplaning their vote prior to the flip, also being proactive about being called out on it since the vote in itself is bad from her priors votes, alisea has be tuning her titus/tywin vote depending on the town swing for a good 10 ish pages now

This is Cloud pushing a

mislynch

.

yo if im wrong on tywin im wrong, i want trans read on that tho, i bet my macaroni he will agree with me

Preempting a scum!Tywin flip by saying "if I'm wrong I'm wrong" and is maybe trying to tempt scum!transcend into defending his partner. Could also be Cloud trying to buddy town!Transcend though so that's part of why he's lower on my list of suspects from the cloud iso.

Also woops i forgot i did quote, im sad transcend boi is subbing out, i really wanted to play with him and sonia, one of the reason why i joined the game, lapsa also said he wouldnt be part of tywin lynch but eventally did vote them, also aj you are right its not AI per se, but you have to read in to nd tywin's imo was genuine, much more than titus's iso she has posted as proof

VOTE: lapsa

This is where he gets onto Lapsa and his reasoning has to do with Lapsa voting Tywin. We've seen cloud and Lapsa's flips, I think this points to scum!Tywin

@ssbm get your vote in there, i see no reason why you would back off to go back on town

Cloud has already switched off Alisae (or was it Pine at this point?) onto Lapsa once he sees me start to push him. "go back on town" in this post refers to Tywin.

Lots of words

I'm sort of confused as to why you think AJ is naive for having lots of townreads he won't lynch when you basically hand your vote to two townreads

Though since I apparently have your vote please vote Titus with me kthx

Titus is town though, and neither of you have my vote. Titus and I have basically the same scumpool, but I think notable differences in our reads are at Nero and Aj. Voting with my townreads at an early stage before I develop strong SRs is not naive as you're implying though.

im fairly confident tywin is town though but i like you even if i think ure half wrong

Again, calling Tywin town. This was probably his most consistent stance all of D1, was that Tywin is town

Sonia is having the very same read that i have on tywin and we are competent enough to read into it, titus is just biased

Points to Sonia and Tywin for scum

Titus is town, tywin is town, aj looks town, sonia is gut town with pro reads that are just like mine. Sbm might be playing a great scumgame btw, elbirn looks town enough, gamma with the mason comment looks ridiculously town

This is the first and only time I see him mention Gamma which is why Gamma is the lowest on my suspect list but he repeats that Sonia has reads just like his again, maybe trying to hint that he has the same info she does?

And yea also

traitor claim

, if theres actually a traitor or not, its really great because mefia doesnt know if hes real or not and probably wont lynch him, just lynching a

traitor claim

is so good for reading interactions, mafia will find every reasons possble to not jump on it

i didnt read too mucn into your traitor crumd, im talking about the

traitor claim

Yeah, I'm still not interested in a Lypsawhateverthefuckhisnameis lynch

Pedit: whats this about lying about tywin?

Just going to mark this as fake looking and associatives with lapsa, this is the exact behavior im looking for by pushong on

traitor claim

He literally says "traitor claim" 4 times in a span of 6 posts if you read his ISO. The last time he says it he even draws attention to it with a , and the first time he says it he says "

and yea also traitor claim

, [redacted]"

[Alisae]

btw Kyouko you missed a scum claim that just about everyone overlooked including me at the time.

AHAHAHA look at that signature

its even funnier cause i was mefia

[ssbm_Kyouko]

sonia titus elbirn pine are all looking bad atm, i like uzi, lap and another guy i forgot

Well we got double town flip out of this.

The thing is, I don't think CK plays a lot of OMGUS into his scum game. He constantly made a case for Alisae not being scum, points double town out of our flips etc etc. I'm wanting to lynch through his scumreads and see what pops up.

I'm about to say he was buddying Sonia to let her know he was the traitor and that he DID know (I've never seen a traitor that doesn't). In fact, some of his posts (Sonia townleading?!?! emote emote) seems sarcastic and really unneeded ambiguity that wasn't even that true in the context. (His post 668 for context).


I don't know if I'm good enough to see what triggered his death. He SRs SSBM, Seems to flip to SR Alisae, interacts weirdly with Sonia (buddying), is actually interested in Nero. Flips Lapsa once traitor is noted, which in THEORY should be when we find his crumb.

And... here it is:

Kyouko youre really underestimating what a traitor would to to indicates hes the traitor to their scumteam

VOTE: Kyouko

I think CK was hinting through him and maybe Sonia, but more sure of him.

P;edit: I'm cooking so my responses are disjointed and late.

I don't understand how anyone besides town!Tywin or town!Sonia could read that Cloud ISO and seriously think cloud was hinting more to me than Sonia

Cabd, why did you do your thingy on Titus?

This, although I'm more curious as to why you

didn't

check Alisae.

VOTE: Kyouko. L-4 now I believe

I still wanna hear from Syryana on that vigi claim that came right before Alisae countered. I believe her over him.

Sheep. You'll start shit by pointing out the post in which you think CK is trying to crumb to me but won't vote me until you see my wagon gain traction. Could say the same of Titus here tbh, putting a bit of a shake in my read on her. Maybe understandable given how she feels about scrapping her reads after the cloud flip though.

[Elbirn]

This is coming from the guy who tried to push titus as sk a few posts ago, pls stop shade throwing conftown tia

She's not. Cabd and Titus could be scum together, she could be a mafia doc. She could be a sk. Why ignore those possibilities?

I find it wholly unlikely that cabd is scum. Same with Titus as much as I've been passively squinty eyed at her for a few things.

Why would two scum who are mostly townread fake an innocent on each other, in a game that may have a SK no less where they could wind up getting flipped even without getting lynched. It doesn't make sense.

As for the other possibilities I'm pretty sure if there's an sk then it has to be alisae, unless there was a 3rd kill that was blocked, and I've never even seen a mafia doctor in my career and don't know what that is

[Cabd]

Damn nevermind. Thought ssbm was softing mason. Theory canceled. Woulda put us at 5.5 confirmed on day two. With a vig slash leashed SK.

[Cabd]

lol masonry

You weren't supposed to say anything

[Elbirn]

Damn nevermind. Thought ssbm was softing mason. Theory canceled. Woulda put us at 5.5 confirmed on day two. With a vig slash leashed SK.

*counts on fingers and toes*

I know i'm not the sharpest bulb in the mangled analogy but would this not give us 4? (Cabd the gunsmith, Titus the all-but-confirmed, SSBM mason, ??? Mason)

Where's the other 1.5?

[Titus]

The stubborn VCAist in me wants Tywin.
The stubborn wordsmith in me wants SSM.

Detailed thoughts please Nero?

[Pine]

@Titus - You have my attention. Make (or link to) the case on SSM?

[Cabd]

Damn nevermind. Thought ssbm was softing mason. Theory canceled. Woulda put us at 5.5 confirmed on day two. With a vig slash leashed SK.

*counts on fingers and toes*

I know i'm not the sharpest bulb in the mangled analogy but would this not give us 4? (Cabd the gunsmith, Titus the all-but-confirmed, SSBM mason, ??? Mason)

Where's the other 1.5?

4.5; sorry.

The Vig/leashed SK as the .5

[xSoniaNevermindx]

This feels like deathnote mafia where someone outted 1 sr on my slot out of no where and ten it turned into a bw of "oh yeah Sonia be scum!"
zzzzz
I really don't understand the scumreads on me feels just like people trying to go for whatever they can bite.
Nero having little to no reaction at the Titus clear is ehhhhh at best
I'll re read a bit because I don't really have any scumreads I can vote and say "yeah pretty sure you'll flip scum"

[Pine]

If you didn't I'm not sure why you'd CC. Like I know that you are arguing that there could be two vigs (I don't even think Sry claim was legit anyways) but if that's what you believed at the time then why CC? And if thats not what you believed at the time why wouldn't you think she is scum?

This is not "little to no reaction," Sonia. He's contesting the validity of the inno.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

If you didn't I'm not sure why you'd CC. Like I know that you are arguing that there could be two vigs (I don't even think Sry claim was legit anyways) but if that's what you believed at the time then why CC? And if thats not what you believed at the time why wouldn't you think she is scum?

This is not "little to no reaction," Sonia. He's contesting the validity of the inno.

I was expecting much more then that the way Nero plays lol

[Cabd]

I keep going away for an hour or two hoping to come back to the players who have yet to check in. But lolnope.jpg

Guess the holiday season is more important to some people than lynching the shit out of mafia.


Fiiiiiiine.

[Cephrir]

FYI, there will not be any prods today or tomorrow.

[Cabd]

While we wait let's talk about how super scummy painbringer is. Only one post in the entire thread.

[Elbirn]

Cabd is Kyouko town or did your theory blowing up remove evidence of that and the kyouko train is a-go?

Cuz I'm looking at either kyouko, sonia, or nos "18 posts of nothing and then my wagon got derailed onto a townie instead" feratu. Admittedly I need to evaluate more closely but this is where my heads at today. I'm still unhappy with nos being not-dead.

[Cabd]

I thought it was a literal mason claim/crumb. Obviously that's not the case so eh

[Tywin Lannister]

I keep seeing 'If Tywin flips scum, Player X is town'. Well what happens when I flip town? Do you gain any info on my lynch at all? I feel like those that are stuck with me in their scum list aren't evaluating everything or everyone. It's stale. There never was a legitimate case on me. There wasn't even one for Lapsa either, aside from a general 'feel' on him. Nobody looks to be giving genuine evaluations of things outside of bad theories that don't hold up with flips.

Here's my point: what did we learn from the Lapsa flip? I learned that there's at least one scum on his wagon. It was pushed and pushed (like mine was) without reason. Nobody even questioned it. Nobody said 'wait, why is this going through so easily and without pushback?' What was even learned from it? Anything? We were down a townie and for no reason.

Then we have Alisae NK Uzi for no reason. She killed our cop. What did his flip tell us? Anything? If not, then why TF was Uzi chosen over original intended targets like nos? Nos' wagon was derailed fast. Scum didn't want it to happen IMO. Alisae was told not to shoot him by Syryana as well. She followed his prodding like a sheep. It got our cop killed. This is ignoring that a vigi shooting N1 is almost always a terrible decision. She's new so I ignore that, but for future reference: vigi's STOP shooting N1 unless it's an obvious scum kill. You'll almost always hit town, and since we HAD a cop, we lose at least one confirmed investigation. Alisae, you did scum's work for them. Why shoot Uzi? You said nos was your target originally. Why change? Why not shoot me? My flip would've given more info and not had wasted another town mislynch. Did you think about it before shooting Uzi? Or did you just listen to whatever Syryana told you with his vigi claim (which you didn't question at all???).

I feel like this game is full of people making suboptimal decisions and not thinking about the pros/cons of them. If you aren't sure whose scum and are after blood, why not go for the lynch/vigi kill that gives actual info to town to work with? Nobody seems to question this stuff and it's pretty annoying from my viewpoint.

Some flips that give info IMO: Sonia/Kyouko/me/Syryana

There's probably more, but start there if you're not going to think things through and try to use information from flips to find scum. Just lyching/vigi killing without thought is the worst idea possible. THINK before you act.

All that being said, I have another 20 something pages to catch up with now. This damn thread is annoying. I hope one of you has something new to add in the last 20 pages, because if not, I'll be even more annoyed that I wasted my time reading it. Stop posting useless crap if you've got nothing to add. I'd prefer wall posts from everyone right now over 97 pages. At least walls need general thought to create, rather than dumb one sentence posts saying nothing useful.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Age old question is would Cloud be that blatantly obv about his traitor crumb

[xSoniaNevermindx]

How does my flip give you any info what so ever I wasn't on the Lap wagon
If I flip scum okay I flip scum gj
If I flip town it's like "welp try again"
Please explain how I give info if you say the Cloud nk you're a moron

[xSoniaNevermindx]

It turned into just gamma scumreading me turning into a sudden snowball
does no one see the issue in this

[Tywin Lannister]

I thought it was a literal mason claim/crumb. Obviously that's not the case so eh

Why would Mason's even give that crumb? It's not necessary unless Kyouko or his partner were at L1 with intent to hammer given. Then he'd say it. It's useless right now to give that info out. There's not enough sure-fire TRs after the recent flips to create a town bloc, and it's not optimal Mason play to tell anyone with so many unconfirmed and nowhere near Lylo. Mason's shouldn't crumb yet, and so why are you looking for it? To create a theory? Why not find scum one player at a time? We need an actual scum flip before theories are even close to useful right now. Please try to remember that.

[mozamis]

OK time for another catch up. While I was thinking about the game today, in a calmer state of mind, I put Cabd back to a town read. Sure, his vote wasn't how I would have played it, but some people like reaction testing, and people play differently etc
Bottom line is: he's just so bloody town. Constantly posting, constantly thinking, speculating. You can tell he is living and breathing this game. I can see scum Cabd being good. But this good? Can't see it.
Plus, I just skimmed and like Elbrins point about why would he fake claim gun and clear Titus, thus chaining themselves together, and fucking their scum team over if one of them gets killed. Seems an uncessary gambit.
Which I guess means Titus does not have a gun.
She could be the Sk though.
To the catch up!

[xSoniaNevermindx]

This is absolutely annoying because you all just want the simple answer to be the right one

Well guess what you wagoned lap and that didn't end well
The wagons you're suggesting won't end well either wake up