The Thing Mafia - Game over!

[Errantparabola]

Im in a board retreat right now. Give me until late night or tomorrow thanks

[Untrod Tripod]

you think me you and spiffeh are the town? w u t

I didn't say that. My point was that it only takes one wrong vote.

[Errantparabola]

I'm here, and currently in the process of tryharding, so watch the fuck out

[Errantparabola]

On why people believe UT to be scum, and why I disagree

First we address general game engagement, and why it has no relevance in this game.

General trend, especially with thinkers like Wraith, is to lynch people who don't have a "good track record of behavior" in this game which I think is flawed logic. That's why I was scumreading Wraith, but I want to look at that kind of thing with less weight seeing the townflip there. See: dreal, SpyreX, and now UT. Look at the logic, reasoning, and buildup of wagons on the scum this game and you see something different there-- actual reasons, intent, etc. I know the only extremely relevant data point is Andrius and that's only one wagon to look at. We've just been shedding the players that are playing "badly" and I think this is a mistake that town is making and scum is capitalizing on as a general trend this game.

Second we address the Spiffeh case, and why it's not particularly compelling to me. I understand that UT did an early hard bus in Defcon and that won him the game, but 1) how is that exhibitory of a scum-exclusive behavior from UT this game (so yes,

in this case, meta is trash

) and 2)

the information being here is not true.

And this is just blatant. There is no push like Defcon from UT that's strong, confident, consistent, and sustained. This is pretty obvious just from Ctrl-F. Toog got lynched for plan reasons and UT pointed that out, even at one point second guessing that (maybe Toog wouldn't do this, scum wouldn't rock the boat). Same goes for Andy there.

There are additional reasons for why UT is not scum, but I want to talk about those later. But there are no valid reasons to lynch UT here, and it's telling that

everyone else is saying that UT is most likely scum, that they're going to vote UT, but it's almost 100% based on similar lines of thought that have gotten town lynched multiple times this game.

[Errantparabola]

On why Spiffeh is my vote today, and why this makes sense from scum team

We address the dynamic that's happening in this list right now. Maria wants UT dead. Spiffeh pretty emphatically wants UT dead. Magna as well. The fact that UT hasn't been lynched already isn't town thinking to me, as a collective.

I think that two scum are in this three {MoI, Maria, Spiffeh}

. Yes. And I'm still townreading Maria and Magna and I don't know what to do, but yes,

I think Spiffeh is most likely scum in this group

. The reason I think that scum is in that three is because here's a glaring inconsistency between writing and action.

Everyone is saying that UT is scum and they intend to vote UT, and this has not happened yet.

As a collective, people are pretending like they're a LOT more confident than they feel right now. "Oh there's no way UT isn't scum." "Oh, I'm definitely voting UT." Again, as I said before, there's NO REASON to think this, and there's NO REASON to be as confident as these three are and have this much "dirt" (a word that I use from their rational perspective) and stall out the lynch this much.

Spiffeh's response to why he's stalling out the lynch is that he only thinks that one scum is in UT and I, and that he's paranoid that it might be Maria without making any actual conclusions.

He says he's made it "abundantly clear that he's paranoid about Maria" and this is bullshit.

I have an extremely hard time believe Spiffeh transitions from "refusing to believe Maria is scum" to "Maria might be scum" because of "not being present during LYLO" because that's basically an invalid reason to scumread someone weighing against multiple valid reasons to townread someone. I think that this interaction is contrived on at least one side.

Interactions between the three people who started this day "in the clear" and UT (and later, me), are in general an overall rehash of stuff that GETS TOWN LYNCHED and has GOTTEN TOWN LYNCHED THIS ENTIRE GAME. And I know that there is enough collective perception and strength in those three players (Maria, Spiffeh, Magna) to understand that the reasons that sparked the beginning of Andy suspicion are fundamentally different from "poor play."

I think that two of those three people are trying to coordinate a mislynch but are not confident that they can start it smoothly

, which is why people (namely and primarily Spiffeh, but also the others) seem like they are so confident that UT is scum but did very little about it this entire day.

More about the two castes of people in this game-- the three people that ended yesterday townreading each other, and the remainder. The general theme from all three of those people is that THEY ARE WRONG ON EXACTLY ONE PERSON. DOES THIS MAKE ANY LOGICAL SENSE? NO. It makes absolutely no sense that someone would believe that it is most likely that scum is in either me OR UT, but they are not confident that it is me AND UT, and they are not confident (this case being Magna most specifically) that is is NEITHER me NOR UT.

This genuinely makes no sense to me-- there is no basis for it being unlikely that it's both or neither me and UT.

This makes me think that scum right now are putting out feelers for who is the mislynch that wins them the game for sure

(see: Spiffeh, who pushed poor cases on both me and UT)

[Spiffeh]

Let's see how many people can conveniently forget that I had the strongest hand in both the Goatmeal and Andrius lynches. You can't try to make a push on me without addressing either of those.

And before the "you bussed in DEFCON!!!!!", DEFCON was a COMPLETELY different style of game entirely, as MoI should be able to confirm. In a game where it only took one player to suspect you for you to get shot, it was essential to bus the scumbuddies that weren't going to make it far and thrive off of that town cred. If you look at my normal scum games such as PYP and A Song of Ice and Fire, I am actually more likely to either ignore my scumbuddies or hardcore defend them (in the case of GreyICE in PYP and TSO in A Song of Ice and Fire). I am happy to link these games if anyone wants to indulge.

I'll respond to specific things in EP's posts now.

[Spiffeh]

Like as much as people (probably the scum) will want to write off "why would I hardcore advocate for the lynches of all three flipped scum" as WIFOM, it's really fucking stupid to not STRONGLY consider that I am probably the player most responsible for the Goatmeal and Andrius lynches and had a pretty big hand in the Toogeloo lynch as well.

I don't care if this sounds like ego stroking, it's the truth.

[Spiffeh]

We address the dynamic that's happening in this list right now. Maria wants UT dead. Spiffeh pretty emphatically wants UT dead. Magna as well. The fact that UT hasn't been lynched already isn't town thinking to me, as a collective. I think that two scum are in this three {MoI, Maria, Spiffeh}. Yes. And I'm still townreading Maria and Magna and I don't know what to do, but yes, I think Spiffeh is most likely scum in this group. The reason I think that scum is in that three is because here's a glaring inconsistency between writing and action. Everyone is saying that UT is scum and they intend to vote UT, and this has not happened yet.

You're not stupid enough to pass this off as believable. First of all, I'm pretty sure MoI listed you as his preference for a lynch today. So you're wrong when you say that all three of us have collectively decided that UT is the lynch today. You're literally takubg issue with the fact that WE HAVEN'T RUSHED THINGS IN LYLO and passing it off as a means to clear UT. There is obviously still discussion going on. MoI is currently V/LA and Maria seems to want to talk to him. I can't believe you would actually find it sketchy on the behalf of the three of us that a UT lynch hasn't happened yet.

[Spiffeh]

Spiffeh's response to why he's stalling out the lynch is that he only thinks that one scum is in UT and I, and that he's paranoid that it might be Maria without making any actual conclusions. He says he's made it "abundantly clear that he's paranoid about Maria" and this is bullshit. I have an extremely hard time believe Spiffeh transitions from "refusing to believe Maria is scum" to "Maria might be scum" because of "not being present during LYLO" because that's basically an invalid reason to scumread someone weighing against multiple valid reasons to townread someone. I think that this interaction is contrived on at least one side.

Unsurprisingly, this is also bullshit coming from you. You say you find my transition from town reading Maria to being paranoid is invalid.

Please consider the following quotes from your ISO:

Spiffeh
I am really glad that you are on this game and town
I dont onow if i have ever told you but you are a fucking mafia god
I thin kim going to nominate you for the prodigy acummy or something
I dont remember what its called?
Paragon? Something atarting with a p

1) Spiffeh and Wraith, who were already strong townreads, look town.

Spiffeh- town, for reasons i've detailed on multiple occasions i think

spiffeh wagon is seriously whack, its a 180 based on no sound reasoning at all

You state multiple times that you are certain I am town, similarly to how I've discussed Maria in the past. So why is it completely unacceptable for me to be paranoid of Maria today for her absence despite my reasons to town read her, but you're allowed to feel the same way about me? I'll give you a hint: Because it's LYLO. Because we don't have anymore mislynches and have to explore all options to make sure we hit scum today. You calling me into question is fine and expected. But acting like my paranoia is a point against me in this instance is bullshit. You had even more confidence that I was town than I did for Maria, but your 180 in your opinion of me is ok and me being a little paranoid of Maria is somehow scummy.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 9.1 (unchanged)

Can go through walls...and it's like it's all over the place.....

-Nauls

Not voting (5) - Spiffeh, MagnaOfIllusion, Untrod Tripod, Errantparabola, MariaR

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2017-02-01 20:55:00) remain until day end

[Spiffeh]

The rest is basically rehashing what you said previously. There's a lot of emphasis on the fact that lynching UT is doing the same thing as lynching FA and SpyreX which resulted in mislynches.

This day is pretty much nothing like the previous days. It's not like we're all saying "oh well UT is next in line let's just settle for him". You fail to consider the fact that I have elaborated significantly on why I find it unlikely that MoI and to a lesser extent Maria are scum. Why don't you address the reasons I gave for feeling better about them than about you or UT? You obviously know this is a PoE game at this point so it's weird that you can't see this is how I'm handling it. Your characterization of this day being like previous days where we mislynched holds no water.

So yeah EP is scum. Their push on me is bullshit and they're obviously more concerned with making me look bad than actually finding scum.

EP has come into the day with the intent of pushing me as a mislynch instead of looking at the whole game and trying to figure things out. There is no paranoia or second guessing I'd expect from a town player in LYLO. The posts are manufactured to push an agenda and don't reflect a player who's genuinely trying to game solve.

I look forward to hearing Maria's and MoI's thoughts on these posts.

And UT if he actually decides we're worthy of his effort.

[Spiffeh]

I'd also like EP to elaborate on why he thinks UT is town other than him being a "universal scum read". And why these reasons are more compelling then the reasons you've been town reading myself, Maria, and MoI ALL GAME.

This is the issue with EP. The confidence in their opinions today don't at all line up how they've treated me throughout the game. Had they attempted to interact with me/anyone else, had visible paranoia and hesitance because of LYLO, or gave consideration to how they were feeling FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE REST OF THE GAME in their recent posts, the resulting push would be more believable.

But given that they just come out with these unprecedented opinions without visibly trying to work it all out makes it really obvious this push isn't genuine.

[Untrod Tripod]

it's still scummy as shit that you've been trying to hang me out as mislynch bait all game and saying "oh, we'll do it later"

[Untrod Tripod]

And UT if he actually decides we're worthy of his effort.

[Spiffeh]

Not my fault scummier people presented themselves. If that's what I've been doing why don't you try to refute the reasons I have for scum reading you? Clearly they're not genuine in your eyes!!!

Also that's pretty bullshit. MoI can attest that I've been presenting you as a lynch in the neighborhood since like Day 2-3 and was pretty much shot down by everyone. Similar things took place in the thread.

UT once again has to piggy back off someone else voicing suspicion of me without acknowledging my actual posts and content.

That is literally the only card you have, keep playing it.

[Untrod Tripod]

THAT BEING SAID it's pretty clear that EP wrote that post with "HEY, UT, VOTE SPIFFEH WITH ME" in mind

that's my thought on it

also the colors are distracting

[Spiffeh]

MoI when you return please state your preference between lynching EP or UT.

[Untrod Tripod]

Not my fault scummier people presented themselves. If that's what I've been doing why don't you try to refute the reasons I have for scum reading you? Clearly they're not genuine in your eyes!!!

Also that's pretty bullshit. MoI can attest that I've been presenting you as a lynch in the neighborhood since like Day 2-3 and was pretty much shot down by everyone. Similar things took place in the thread.

UT once again has to piggy back off someone else voicing suspicion of me without acknowledging my actual posts and content.

That is literally the only card you have, keep playing it.

I don't understand, you were presenting me as a lynch in the neighborhood but people shot it down so you didn't go for it? why not? why is it important to you if your neighborhood buddies are totally on board with your wagons?

[Untrod Tripod]

additionally, how did the neighborhood react to you wanting to lynch Goatmeal and Andrius? did you not go through with that unless you had their blessings? if so, why are you trying to take credit for those wagons when you would only pursue them in earnest with the support of a bunch of people with unconfirmed alignments?

[Spiffeh]

Ok UT Let's take a stroll down memory lane.

Days 1-2: Scum are lynched. I decide that my reads are looking pretty decent and decide to continue lynching down my list of scum reads (which included Gen X and McMenno at the time iirc). You were null at this point.
Day 3: Gen X is lynched. McMenno is already dead. I am at a loss and need to reevaluate.
Day 4: drealmerz was lynched and I was literally absent for like the whole day.
Day 5: I vote you right out the gate and make this post:

Paraphrasing from neighborhood:

UT is the one I want to lynch today. He's the only person itg that hasn't given me any town vibes throughout the whole game.

His reaction to me trying to push him was to discredit me and his defending himself against that push came across 10 times more passionate than anything he's said all game
I even urge people to look at what I said about you here:

Wraith did you read what I said about UT?

I ultimately swap from you to
The only real place I remember him pushing something with some semblance of "caring' was when he went after Toog for planning to go against the plan. If you'll remember, it is very likely scum WANTED Toog to take the fall for Goatmeal so they could get their shot off. that level of commitment to get rid of Toog doesn't really jive with the rest of his apathetic ISO and makes sense as scum trying to save the buddy with the vig shot while simultaneously getting credit for Toog's scum flip

On top of that, he pushes a town counter wagon to Goatmeal (Double Trouble) all of Day 1.

I know he'll continue to say shit like:

VOTE: UT

Bring it on queerbait

and you'll all be like "aw we love UT he's such a jokester" but please realize that he has done similar shit like this all game to diffuse pressure anyone tries to put on him.

He's at the VERY LEAST should be a PoE suspect for everyone and shouldn't be allowed to live any longer

I even ask someone to weigh in on what I said about you:

Wraith did you read what I said about UT?

I ultimately end up hopping off your wagon and pushing the Andrius lynch that day. You've claimed that I have been grooming you for a mislynch for LYLO. So you're suggesting that I stop going after you in favor of bussing my universally town read buddy to the ground all so I can keep you as a future mislynch.
Days 6-7: FA and SpyreX were on the counter wagon to flipped scum and needed to die (note I wasn't even present for SpyreX's lynch).
Day 8: NL occurred before I had a chance to post.

So this whole "Spiffeh is setting me up as a mislynch" fabrication you're trying to push is complete bullshit. There were always candidates more worthy of rope than you in my eyes. For this story to be true, I would have had to have keeping you as mislynch bait higher on my priority list than allowing my universally town read scumbuddy to live. I shouldn't have to tell everyone why that doesn't make any sense.

[Untrod Tripod]

I ultimately end up hopping off your wagon and pushing the Andrius lynch that day. You've claimed that I have been grooming you for a mislynch for LYLO. So you're suggesting that I stop going after you in favor of bussing my universally town read buddy to the ground all so I can keep you as a future mislynch.

and this is a major factor to why I'm not voting you

budddddddddddddddddddddddy

[Errantparabola]

Response

"I lynched scum"

Yeah, actually I can conveniently ignore that fact, considering that you are fully aware that I know you bussed in defcon (judging from how you preemptively referred to it). Because PSST PSST self-meta judging on whether or not you like to bus or not is less than useless. That has no bearing on whether or not you're scum. I'm not using the fact that you pushed scum against you because that doesn't make sense (unlike you)

"EP thinks that taking time in LYLO is scummy"

Hmm. not really, and I might have been a little unclear on this. You passed yourself off as a lot more confident in UT being scum than you actually acted to be. I'm not "taking issue with the fact that you didn't rush in LYLO." I'm taking issue with the fact that you have repeatedly said "there is no way I'm not voting UT today" and "yeah, I don't see a world where UT isn't scum" and I take issue with the fact that it is very strongly giving off the impression that everyone expects UT to die today and yet people were pretending like maybe they were considering were other lines of play.

"Because EP 180'd on Spiffeh, that means that I can be paranoid on Maria without being called out on it"

Except you can't, because your reasoning on that is "Maria isn't participating in LYLO, and also I kinda see a world where Maria and EP are partners but I'm not gonna elaborate on that" and both of those are bad reasons.

"EP is scum because agenda-pushing"

1. This actually only works if you refute my points. Blanket statements about me sounding manufactured don't fly here so don't pass them off as line-by-line
2. Hell yeah I'm pushing an agenda. Hell yeah I obviously want UT to vote Spiffeh with me. I think you're scum and I think UT is town. This is like the same arg as "ooh survivalist play is scummy" because no, it's not. the game is on the fucking line.

"EP is not paranoid enough"

Eh. I suppose. I don't know how you would have expected me to act here. Moan a little bit about not knowing for sure who it is? Like, do you think that I should be more paranoid because somehow casing you is going to immediately get you lynched? Not really-- I'm casing you to open channels of discussion..

Most importantly

"EP isn't doing anything to actually say why UT shouldn't be lynched, just talking about how this lynch is the same as SpyreX etc."

Except yeah, the lynch is the same as that logic. It's the same shitty logic. The same bad logic and bad case that got SpyreX, the same bad case that I called you out on, the same bad case that you didn't refute. Spiffeh wants to give off the impression that he's refuting line-by-line, but in reality doesn't. He's picking and choosing the arguments that he feels like he can refute because he doesn't want to highlight the weakest and scummiest arguments that he's made. (Hey, it's exactly the thing that I called Andrius out on.)

I have a little bit more to say, I've been mulling a bit, but I really have to eat.

[MariaR]

HOLY WALL POSTS
I'LL READ ALL THIS AFTER MY SHOWER

[Spiffeh]

@Maria and MoI

It should be throwing a tremendous amount of red flags that EP and UT are both scum reading me for bullshit reasons. I have dismantled their arguments and proven that they don't hold any water. I find it really hard to believe that both of them could be this wrong and this stupid as town, especially when I have a pantheon of evidence in being town this game that they refuse to consider. This should be very indicative of an EP/UT scum team, and it is where I am currently leaning.

Very early on this day I stated my reasons for town reading Maria and MoI. I think it's very likely that a scum team of UT and EP identified that it would be hard for them to convince me to lynch either of you, so they decided that they're best bet at winning this LYLO was to convince you guys to go after me. That would explain EP's sudden and forced scum read of me and UT fabricating an agenda that clearly was not present.

[Spiffeh]

EP I take solace in the fact that you were shaking in your boots as you typed that response