Open 670: Near Vanilla (Over)

[Toto]

I really really dont want sesq at lylo and we only have one ml left. Id rather we use it on him. Hawk is an easy ML and leaving sesq after him makes me paranoid about people pushing for hawk first.

Hikari you have been pushing Sesq all game why change now?

The only concern I have is that Magna was defending sesq so hard on d1 and d2 it makes trading himself with nebula a dubious play given the obvious associations. Effectively it would make his play a 2x1 trade which seems silly, specially since elena was still a viable counter wagon.

[Music Box]

@Toto and MB

If part of the reason you think Sesq is mafia is an association with Riley, shouldn't you guys be voting Riley?

My scumread on Sesq isn't based on the association with Riley.

[Creature]

Votecount 4.1

Votecount 4.1

[0] hapahauli
[0] Hiraki
[0] Riley Cake
[0] Toto
[1] Sesq - Music Box
[0] Music Box
[0] Elena Fisher
[3] Hawk - hapahauli, Hiraki, Riley Cake

[L-2]

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Sesq, Elena Fisher, Hawk, Toto

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-03-07 19:15:00)

[Hawk]

Hey guys I'll catch up in a second. I'm town don't throw our ML away on me because you guys will be in a world of hurt tomorrow if you do that.

Hapa I understand my logic was very poor and my reasoning wasn't solid. Unfortunately as town I have a very bad habit of second guessing myself mid post and so my analysis comes off very lack luster. Just check here in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=69733. I have similar problems d2 when I have a good feeling about scum bussing and then second guess myself and end up leading town down a mislynch. It doesn't help things compound later that led us to a f3 where me, one other town read player and a confirmed townie are stuck and we lose because of sloppy play on my part.

Honestly I'm not sure where scum are and need to revalue. I was fairly certain Nebula was scum d2 but I was trying to be open minded that maybe Sesq and Nebbie were both town because it wouldn't have been the first time I was fooled by TvT.

[Music Box]

@ Hiraki: I'm trying to work out why you switched to scumreading Hawk, from your links in 1558, and as far as I can make out it was because of his switch to calling to calling Nebula town in 1334. Is that right?

[Music Box]

MUSIC BOX AND TOTO!!! Dontcha think it's wayyyy to early to say I'm scum because i'm partners with Sesq when Sesqy hasn't even flipped yet?? THAT'S JUST SILLY!!! You'll find yourself barking up the wrong three!!!!

See 1532. My read on you wasn't based on a link with Sesq.

[Elena Fisher]

VOTE: Music box
Hap/Toto/Hiraki I never see myself lynching and that leaves very few people to choose from and this would be my pick right now

[Hiraki]

Hikari you have been pushing Sesq all game why change now?

Because a Sesq lynch isn't happening today but a Hawk one will.

[Toto]

Hi Elena, why Music Box?

@Hiraki. What makes you say Sesq's lynch isn't happening? Seems like an obvious choice to me.

[Hiraki]

@ Hiraki: I'm trying to work out why you switched to scumreading Hawk, from your links in 1558, and as far as I can make out it was because of his switch to calling to calling Nebula town in 1334. Is that right?

Correct - also note that ISO 63 is Hawk flipflopping for strange reasons onto the Nebulla wagon during D1. With the Nebula flip, it doesn't look pretty.

@Toto - Hap already wants Hawk to flip before Sesq. I am very sure that both are scum - if it makes you more comfortable to lynch one more than the other than this is something we should collectively discuss.

[Toto]

Yeah. So my point is that a Hawk ML doesn't really tell me anything, while a Sesq ML tells me Neb and Sesq were TvT and tells me a lot of what was going on D1.

So if it is just between Sesq and Hawk, I'd rather lynch Sesq today. That said, I think it is important we take it easy today and try to let everyone participate a little bit. We have 12 long days ahead before we need to make a choice.

[Hawk]

Why won't we lynch Sesq today? Riley I also don't like.
I'm okay with Riley or Sesq at this point.

MB and Elena are still ? marks for me but I need to go over things from before and make my case against them.

VOTE: Sesq

I'll post again soon.

I promise you guys if you lynch me it will bring you guys no closer to finding scum. I am town.

[Elena Fisher]

Hawk is 100% not scum look at how Magna acted around Hawk
I refuse to believe Hawk is scum

[Elena Fisher]

VOTE: Sesq
The hard defend from Magna makes Sesq look like scum

The scum team is in sesq/music/riley for me

[Elena Fisher]

Looks like I was right on BBT softing pr but he was town that's really not the smartest thing to do

[Toto]

K, that sounds reasonable. Can you guys unvote for now though?. Let's have a nice chat first.

I'm also leaning Riley or Sesq for today.

[Elena Fisher]

UNVOTE:

What you wanna chat on buddy?

[Toto]

Elena, whats your case on MB?

[Elena Fisher]

Don't have one.
Riley seems less likely to kill LUV
Hawk is town given interactions
So that lleaves Sesq and MB

[Toto]

LUV was probably a PR kill. He was acting cagey for his meta. Scum Riley would see that as a necessary evil even if LUV was buddying her.

Also, why did you vote MB before and not Sesq?

[Elena Fisher]

I didn't read Magna's iso before voting Sesq.
Then I did

[Toto]

Sesq (6) –

LUV

, Music Box, Hiraki,

Nebula

,

Lowell

,

BBT

If I had the mystic power to kill myself and every player on a wagon I'd use it in an instant here.

Nebula

,

Lowell

and Hiraki are all scummy as hell.

LUV

is low key sliding by and would be a secondary pick for me (along with Elena) if I was wrong about any of the first three.
Music Box and

BBT

would most likely be collateral damage based on my reads right now.

But I'm confident at least 2/3 scum are here and I'd make a 2-5 trade any day of the week leaving Town in a 6 on 1 advantage if I didn't net all three scum with my move.

This is an interesting post.

If Sesq is scum, no one bussed?

If Sesq is town, was this a 100% town wagon?

[hapahauli]

@ Elena

What in particular about the MoI/Hawk interaction has to be SvT? I've read MoI's filter - while he pushes suspicion on Hawk, Hawk is never in danger of being lynched. Also, Hawk is very clearly a secondary suspect to Nebula/Hiraki. Scum bus all the time.

@ Toto

Hap whats your read on Mb?

I think some of MB's posting today is pretty townie. For example, him pointing out Sesq's contradiction about Riley...

It was posts like 306, 310, 884 that made me think they weren't partners when I originally read them and it was those rather than the later posts that I was thinking of when I wrote that. But there's other posts like 885 that could be either coaching or buddying so they could just have been distancing.


But while going through their ISO's to check that I spotted this:

Riley Cake - acts in a way that's kind of... well, an act. Probably someone's alt, I don't really care.

She's a friend on Discord, me and a few others told her about this place. I don't want to say anymore as I don't want game stuff ending up there at all.

In the first quote Sesq is trying to disassociate herself from Riley. In the second she admits knowing her. I don't see any reason for her to do the first unless they are both scum.

... probably doesn't make Sesq scum, but is requires a lot of very careful reading to pick out. Stuff like this makes me think he's actually looking through filters carefully rather than just forcing suspicion on a player.

MB is also hard to pair with a scumbuddy. MB/Riley is the only team that I can piece together with MB in it, and I really don't have evidence to call Riley scum. I think Sesq/Hawk is much more likely.

[hapahauli]

@ Hawk

Hey guys I'll catch up in a second. I'm town don't throw our ML away on me because you guys will be in a world of hurt tomorrow if you do that.

Hapa I understand my logic was very poor and my reasoning wasn't solid. Unfortunately as town I have a very bad habit of second guessing myself mid post and so my analysis comes off very lack luster. Just check here in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=69733. I have similar problems d2 when I have a good feeling about scum bussing and then second guess myself and end up leading town down a mislynch. It doesn't help things compound later that led us to a f3 where me, one other town read player and a confirmed townie are stuck and we lose because of sloppy play on my part.

Honestly I'm not sure where scum are and need to revalue. I was fairly certain Nebula was scum d2 but I was trying to be open minded that maybe Sesq and Nebbie were both town because it wouldn't have been the first time I was fooled by TvT.

Can you walk me through the post of yours I analyzed (about the Neb/Sesq wagon being SvT). As straightforward as possible. I want to know what you were thinking specifically, because the post is just very jumbled, poorly edited, and hard for me to really grasp.

[Sesq]

Also, even if this is a good point on her, how does that make me scum?

It doesn't necessarily. That part was more about Riley than you.

What else would "I don't feel comfortable with this, everyone should move over to nebula" mean? If I were scum, what reason would I have not to go on Lowell's wagon?

Maybe you thought it would look town? Or were still hoping for a Nebula lynch? I don't know what was in your mind there but to me it looked like you were nudging the wagon along.

At the end, I was very much against a hammer on him. I still leaned scum on him, but I wasn't that confident. Also, I don't really care about self-image as much as I do about finding the people who are murderers.

Hey guys I'll catch up in a second. I'm town don't throw our ML away on me because you guys will be in a world of hurt tomorrow if you do that.

Hapa I understand my logic was very poor and my reasoning wasn't solid. Unfortunately as town I have a very bad habit of second guessing myself mid post and so my analysis comes off very lack luster. Just check here in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=69733. I have similar problems d2 when I have a good feeling about scum bussing and then second guess myself and end up leading town down a mislynch. It doesn't help things compound later that led us to a f3 where me, one other town read player and a confirmed townie are stuck and we lose because of sloppy play on my part.

Honestly I'm not sure where scum are and need to revalue. I was fairly certain Nebula was scum d2 but I was trying to be open minded that maybe Sesq and Nebbie were both town because it wouldn't have been the first time I was fooled by TvT.

I can't tell if this is terrible defense from town or scum. It almost feels TOO terrible to be coming from scum...

Hikari you have been pushing Sesq all game why change now?

Because a Sesq lynch isn't happening today but a Hawk one will.

This feels really scummy, but Hawk does too... hmm.

VOTE: Sesq
The hard defend from Magna makes Sesq look like scum

The scum team is in sesq/music/riley for me

Or he wanted to get a quick lynch on nebula (whom he knew was town, and must have thought was easier to ML) by hard-defending me, because if you had more people going after me, there would be less people going after him. Also, in the case that he died, he could have planted that in order to guarantee me a lynch. He planted down that apparent doctor claim, after all.

Yeah. So my point is that a Hawk ML doesn't really tell me anything, while a Sesq ML tells me Neb and Sesq were TvT and tells me a lot of what was going on D1.

So if it is just between Sesq and Hawk, I'd rather lynch Sesq today. That said, I think it is important we take it easy today and try to let everyone participate a little bit. We have 12 long days ahead before we need to make a choice.

Well, I already know for a fact that was TvT happening D1, and as for how it's impacted my reads, it made me realize that scum... well, I don't know. Were they all going against nebula or some against me? While Nebula's play was ultimately worse, I think there are a few good points about me, but those are almost always derived from me being not very good at this game.

... probably doesn't make Sesq scum, but is requires a lot of very careful reading to pick out. Stuff like this makes me think he's actually looking through filters carefully rather than just forcing suspicion on a player.

MB is also hard to pair with a scumbuddy. MB/Riley is the only team that I can piece together with MB in it, and I really don't have evidence to call Riley scum. I think Sesq/Hawk is much more likely.

I don't think picking stuff out necessarily makes you townconf, Magna felt like he was delving pretty deep into the logic of things. Also, mislynches look more appealing if you have "evidence" to back it up.