Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[goborage]

vote: camisade

because I don't want to scroll up and look at other names.

[goborage]

I was trying to figure out what a mass-roleclaim would accomplish day 1 and all I came up with is that it would make the lynch slightly easier, as it would narrow our choices to 1/7 opposed to 1/8, which isn't very much. It would still be a guessing game and unless we got the SK we'd have a dead FBI guaranteed day 2.

[goborage]

I'm gonna throw a second vote on avinashv for supporting JDodge.

Unvote

vote: avinashv

Fix'd - Andy.

[goborage]

Which is exactly why I pointed that out.

Keep in mind that you must assume based on the low player count that the FBI Agent essentially gets one chance to find the SK with an investigation - something which should be 1 in 6. With that, there is the chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent anyways - again, 1 in 6. And there's a further chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent's target if they get an innocent - 1 in 6.

I may be overlooking something but wouldn't the numbers be 1 in 7? We have 8 players and the FBI won't investigate himself and the SK won't kill himself so that means 8-1 = 7. I don't see why we should assume that the FBI will only get 1 chance to investigate. Day 2 will have 2 deaths so we'll be down to 6 players. The SK and FBI only have a 1 in 5 chance to get each other.

Now, if we massclaim, we not only find the SK, but we find the scum as well - if the FBI Agent claims truthfully and is not counterclaimed, we then have a 3/7 chance of lynching an anti-town role, and a 1 in 7 chance of getting the SK - this is actually better odds than if we weren't to massclaim, when we would have a 3/8 chance of anti-town and 1/8 chance of SK, not to mention the 1/8 chance of the FBI Agent being lynched.

I definitely need clarification here: If we massclaim how will we find SK? It's still a guessing game as far as I see. It's not as sure a plan as you make it sound. The 1/8 FBI being lynched isn't really an issue either as they would quickly claim.

The conclusion I've drawn from this post is that you're trying to scare the town into killing off its best asset. The FBI will likely make it to Day 3.

[goborage]

Forgive my newbness, I understand the 1/6 now. I forgot how the lynching process works. After DAY1 a person will die leaving us with 7 people. Then at NIGHT1 the SK and FBI will make their selections. They won't vote for themselves making it 1/6 that they will finger one another. SK will kill someone and on DAY2 we'll have 6 people. We'll lynch someone again leaving us with 5 at NIGHT2. Assuming the SK and FBI are still alive they'll have a 1/4 chance of fingering one another. DAY3 we'll be left with 4 people. 4 - 1 lynch = 3 folks left.

I can see JDodge's logic when he says we'd be screwed DAY3 if we don't get any correct lynches and the SK doesn't do us any favors. However I still don't think the FBI should claim right away. He should stay quiet until night and get a pm off. In the unlikely event that we do start piling votes on the FBI he'll claim out of fear and we can simply lynch the next most suspicious person. An early FBI claim will do no good.

[goborage]

Go back and look at my post one more time. I agreed with him that

the FBI agent has no need to false-claim

. I guess I should have split up his quote into two, as my second sentence was directed at the rest of what he wrote; and yes, I do stand by that in a mass claim situation the reactions would be useful. I never said that I would or wouldn't support a mass claim, though.

Hey if you can explain why the FBI wouldn't claim to be a townie I'll take my vote off.

[goborage]

Because then we have one confirmed townie. The math is already shown in earlier posts. One confirmed townie means a lynch has a better chance of hitting scum, from a purely statistical standpoint. Factor in human deduction, and you're on better standing. Add to that the FBI might have played a little strangely and could have trigger someone's scumdar.

I'm still not convinced that the minor advantage a claim would give the town is worth giving the SK a free town-kill.

The FBI being on someone's scumdar is a non-issue. The FBI will never be lynched day 1 because he'd claim and then we'd be in the situation you are pushing for.

Anywhoo I think we should let JDodge make a post before we lynch.

[goborage]

I was trying to delay a lynch, not make one. I didn't notice your unvote.

[goborage]

@ Dave: You have the lowest post count at this point. Are you normally so reserved? Why has it taken you so long to basically agree with what others have posted?

Yes.. I am reserved in most things i do, i tend to sit back not say much and think about what is going on. This is mafia, to win we have to analyse what other people say to try and find a scum tell, or something suspicious, so i pick my words carefully and dont rush into saying things that could get me lynched.

This isn't a very a good attitude. Discussion is key in mafia and staying quiet doesn't help anybody. This is a team game, and unless you're scum, the fear of getting lynched should not be a factor in your posting.

@ gob: You’re still voting avin for his support of JD. Mafia is a team game, what’s wrong with supporting someone you agree with? Why are you not suspicious of those who are supporting one another on the other side of the argument?

Why would I be suspicious of people just for not supporting an FBI claim? Assuming there was no other info other than whether you were pro-claim or anti-claim, I would lynch the pro-claimers. In my mind this hypothetical situation is pretty much the real one. At the risk of sounding newbish, I can't see anything I'd label as scummy.

avinashv is still # 1 on my list for supporting JD. JD has argued his position. Comparatively, avinashv just quietly agreed. If you were SK and someone (JD) was pushing for an FBI claim wouldn't you support him?

Tied for #2 would be JD and Dave for pushing FBI claim and for not being helpful to town respectively.

[goborage]

I don't share meta info. Personal policy.

You are aware this is a team game, right? Does your policy stem from the fact that you don't want people to learn their own tells?

Not sharing meta info is standard policy isn't it? If we're adhering to the game's reality then we wouldn't have access to that info.

[goborage]

@gorborage -- I'm not convinced you were telling the truth about the #43 debacle. There's nothing you can do or say to change my mind about this, for pragmatic reasons, I just thought I would let you know. You asked me to explain my stance, mentioning you would unvote when I did. You seemed unconvinced; but where is my unvote? If you had already made up your mind, why ask me at all? Furthermore, you claimed I was SK because I agreed with JD. Why can JDodge not be SK for bringing up the entire thing to begin with?

Ya I guess I should have said "convince me and I'll unvote".

I'm still suspicious of JDodge for the roleclaim. I said he was #2 on my list earlier. He seems to be winning people over but I'd like to point out that his posts have led us into a discussion about meta-gaming and away from scum-hunting.

goborage* I'm getting fairly protown vibes; you haven't posted about much except JD & Avin and the claim thing. What is your opinion on the other players?

Well I was reading page 3 and I thought this was weird:

Dave isn’t lurking. He’s not being very original or wordy, but he’s commented on all relevant topics, defended against accusations, and answered questions quickly. I get the feeling that he is reading along and commenting when he deems it important, which is exactly what he said he was doing. So I find it suspicious that gob and avin have basically called him a lurker for answering honestly.

Anyone think it's strange that Ythill would come to Dave's defense even though Dave has no votes? I'll get some discussion going: Ythill and Dave are scum buddies, true or false?

[goborage]

@goborage --

Ya I guess I should have said "convince me and I'll unvote".

That's a supremely underwhelming answer to the many points I made. You've just bought a lot more attention on yourself. Care to give it another chance, this time addressing certain things? And again I find myself asking why you did not unvote me. Was the reasoning not satisfactory? Say so.

I'm going to quote myself seeing as how I feel I've already addressed your points.

avinashv is still # 1 on my list for supporting JD. JD has argued his position. Comparatively, avinashv just quietly agreed. If you were SK and someone (JD) was pushing for an FBI claim wouldn't you support him?

This is my reasoning. I raised a hypothetical question but it'd be nice if avinashv answered it.

Because then we have one confirmed townie. The math is already shown in earlier posts. One confirmed townie means a lynch has a better chance of hitting scum, from a purely statistical standpoint. Factor in human deduction, and you're on better standing. Add to that the FBI might have played a little strangely and could have trigger someone's scumdar.

I'm still not convinced that the minor advantage a claim would give the town is worth giving the SK a free town-kill.

The FBI being on someone's scumdar is a non-issue. The FBI will never be lynched day 1 because he'd claim and then we'd be in the situation you are pushing for.

Yes I found your reasoning unsatisfactory. And just so we don't have to repeat this circular debate:

@gorborage -- I'm not convinced you were telling the truth about the #43 debacle. There's nothing you can do or say to change my mind about this, for pragmatic reasons, I just thought I would let you know.

Replace "gorborage" and 43 with avinashv and massclaim respectively.

I'm a little amazed that thus far you haven't found anything else really to talk about (except for the Dave/Ythill thing) except for myself and JDodge and the claim debacle. I've seen plenty of scummy talk, but you seem real eager to have me lynched; case in point with the baiting of a potential unvote if I explained my stance.

Well I guess my scumdar isn't as sensitive as yours. Most of the preceding posts are either about meta-gaming or flaming.

[goborage]

Anyone think it's strange that Ythill would come to Dave's defense even though Dave has no votes? I'll get some discussion going: Ythill and Dave are scum buddies, true or false?

What does the number of votes have to do with anything?

The number of votes would be an indicator of how suspicious the town is of Dave. I'd understand your defending of Dave if he was under scrutiny, but he is drawing zero votes. Your running to his aid after the slightest of attacks looks suspicious to me.

Calling us out on pointing a finger at the weakest poster in the game is also suspicious.

Gob is the weakest poster in this game.

I take some offense to this. While I agree my posts may not be the most insightful or analytic, I don't see how Dave's are any better.

Look at this post:

Unvote for now

No explanation is offered. All of his posts have to be prompted by someone else and when he does post it's either a repeat of someone else's or completely lacking in content. Your defending of him just encourages more of this behaviour.

[goborage]

@avinashv: re the whole JD massclaim- avina abandoning an unpopular stance has definitely made him look scummy. He seems very defensive, now, and many of his recent posts have been attacking various players, as if he's trying to get the town's attention turned toward anyone but him.

I think this is a pretty good point. Although, I'm not really sure what else avinashv can do in his situation other than scumhunt.

Ythill seems town because the bulk of his posts are non-opinionized inquisitive posts designed to give the impression of scumhunting while not committing to any actual stance.

Haha. To be fair Ythill has voted for avinashv and has been making a case against him.

Other than defending yourself (which I think you did well), pseudo-flaming and meta-game talk I haven't seen you do anything I'd consider scumhunting. I'm guessing by your vote that you find Ythill suspicious. Anybody else making your scum-sense tingle?

[goborage]

Sethaniel is.

Care to elaborate?

[goborage]

I think the conversation is starting to stagnate. How about everyone name their second scummiest (and in Dave's and Seth's case, their first) player?

My #2:

Not really.

This is an incredibly unhelpful post. You must be aware that your behaviour seems scummy yet you do it anyways. Don't you think that this is detrimental to town?

[goborage]

JDodge and Ythill have brought up the fact that hunting for scum and SK are different. Until now I've been treating the word scum as an all-encompassing term for town threats. I'm curious if anyone else has been playing under the same assumptions. More importantly:

what role does everyone think their most suspicious players are playing as?

I think that avinashv is an SK, not mafia. Right now all I have going is the FBI claim.

It's interesting that JDodge is dichotomizing mafia-hunting and SK-hunting. Maybe I'm just a newb but aren't they nearly the same thing? Hunting either bad guy is just a matter of asking questions and pointing fingers. Can't we hunt both of these bad guys at the same time?

[goborage]

goborage: you seem to be admittedly not going on much on your claim that I am SK--is there no-one scummier here in your opinion?

Nope, that's why you get the vote.

[goborage]

Dave: are you voting for me because I am active?

No, I am voting for you because I think you are scum.

You haven't voted yet. Both you and Seth seem hesitant to throw your votes out even though you've both claimed avinashv as your #1 suspect. How come?

[goborage]

I made a mistake.

You’ve made 17 posts, most of them less than 50 words. In that space you have only placed one vote and it was random. Furthermore, you say, “i pick my words carefully and dont rush into saying things.” I find it hard to believe that this was an honest mistake.

I dont think that he should be lynched yet because this is my first game...

The n00b card comes out. Yet… (1) Your opinion on mass claims demonstrates at least a basic understanding of the game. (2) You cite your playstyle several times in defense. Can you explain how someone making the fourth post of his first game would know what his playstyle was? (3) You’ve got the Futurama avatar, which demonstrates knowledge of site trends. Yes, I see your post count; the account is probably an alt.

I’m noting that you didn’t answer the last question I posted in #208. Why aren’t you proactively seeking the information you’d need to reach that crucial 80% surety?

Unvote; vote Dave.

Ythill's vote on Dave has got to be the weakest case I have ever seen against a person.

I'm not entirely clear on your logic for your first point. You point out that Dave is a low-content poster, but if anything, this strengthens Dave's case of forgetting the vote count. If he's not active in this thread then it makes sense that he would not know or remember what he has done in it.

You then quote Dave: “i pick my words carefully and dont rush into saying things.” There's an obvious irony in this post in that it is full of typos. I'd take what Dave is saying with a grain of salt.

From what I gather you're saying that Dave is too competent to make a mistake.

I disagree and your 3 points arguing his competence contain flawed logic. (1) Dave's thoughts on the mass-claim came way after everyone else - it was pretty much parrot-talk. (2) Anyone can adopt a playstyle before they play a game. From what I gather Dave has chosen to be a quiet observer. (3) It's been a month since the game has started. I started playing at the same time as Dave and I've also noticed the Nibbler avatars. Seeing as how anyone can have one, these avatars are not indicative of experience at all. You then accuse Dave of being on an alt with absolutely no proof.

It's clear as day that Dave is a newb. If Dave didn't make an honest mistake then what did he do? He made a conscious decision to pretend-vote? Why would anybody do that?

I'm not sure of what to make of your attack, Ythill. From what I've seen of your earlier posts, you are insightful and methodical. Your attack on Dave is really the complete opposite. From my standpoint you are either:
a) trying to distance yourself from Dave (scumbuddies?)
b) trying to distance yourself from the avinashv lynch (to avoid future scrutiny because you're scum?)
c) lost your mind and think you have a good case against Dave

In any case you're a lot more suspicious in my eyes.

[goborage]

a) trying to distance yourself from Dave (scumbuddies?)

So I defended Dave out of the blue and now I'm distancing without provocation? Seems counter-productive to me. What would be the purpose?

Speaking hypothetically: now that Dave has announced a possible vote for avinashv, his scumpartner would probably want to get off the bandwagon and vote elsewhere, or else both scum would be under scrutiny D2.

b) trying to distance yourself from the avinashv lynch (to avoid future scrutiny because you're scum?)

Lol. Put avinas @ L-1 to see if this theory is plausible.

Sorry don't get this part. Are you saying you'd hammer avinashv if he was at L-1?

c) lost your mind and think you have a good case against Dave

I wouldn't call it a "good case" but then I'm not exactly calling for a hammer here. Dave's "mistake" struck me as scummy. His "assumption" that Avin also made a mistake further piqued my interest, and his n00b card defense seemed less than truthful. There's nothing wrong with a little inquisition. Nor is there anything anti-town about voting someone as a part of that inquisition.

Why wouldn't you simply FOS Dave? If we look back at your post history for this game, you were very big on directing questions at people's suspicious behaviour. You were also very slow to vote as avinashv pointed out. However this recent attack is the complete opposite of what you were doing earlier. I'm not sure what to make of this. One possible explanation is that you freaked out when avinashv hit L-1.

Besides, there are other reasons for my actions that have nothing to do with Dave. Think about it.

I'm too dense. Spell it out for me.

[goborage]

L-1. Don't hammer until we get a role claim.

Side note: I think we've peer-pressured Dave into voting. How could Dave be any more certain of avinashv's guilt now than he was before?

[goborage]

L-1. Don't hammer until we get a role claim.

Side note: I think we've peer-pressured Dave into voting. How could Dave be any more certain of avinashv's guilt now than he was before?

I agree with the first sentence, but I suggest you read the post in which I voted avin. I voted him because I wanted to know why he has not been posting since he was put at lynch-1 by Sethanial in post 209.

I think an FoS would suffice. Instead you put him in mortal danger.

[goborage]

Instead you put him in mortal danger.

This is indeed the case. I fully intend to hammer, but I will not stand for whining about it being out of the blue. You have a few hours to pull your vote if you are uncomfortable with an Avinas lynch. Avinas has a few hours to claim.

I don't like the time constraint and pressure that you're giving to avinashv and the rest of the bandwagon. There is no rush. I'm willing to wait for a roleclaim.

[goborage]

It's not quite as bad as lylo. Even if we screw up and hit town, the SK can simply choose not to NK and we'll move to Day 3. Or if his hunches are good he'll hit scum, which would be even better.

Anyhoo, I'm not quite sure who to vote for atm.

[goborage]

Neutral readings on camisade and seth - mostly because they don't post much.

Neutral leaning scum on everyone else.

Dave is someone who looks suspicious even without posting much. I hate his reasoning behind voting for avinashv and I don't like the fact that he didn't reply to this: "I think an FoS would suffice. Instead you put him in mortal danger."

I dislike two of Ythill's moves. I don't like the rush-lynch on avinashv and I don't like the Dave vote. You're saying that your vote on Dave was made to pressure Dave into voting? What a crazy plan.

I'm still hung up on JDodge's claim idea. Maybe JDodge earnestly thought his idea was good. Or maybe he's scum purposely putting forth a bad idea. If it goes through, he wins. If it fails, he can always fall back on "Would an SK really bring so much attention to himself?" and make himself look innocent. With JDodge's arguably anti-town behaviour, I can't help but get all WIFOMy. There's also the Jenter NK which could be read as beneficial to JD.

Anyways, I'm not going to vote until camisade and seth start posting.

@camisade and seth: What do you think of these three?

[goborage]

Re SK: The Role PM at the beginning of the thread says "You may PM me the name of a player." It doesn't appear to be the case that the SK must NK.

Right now, I'd have to say I'm rather suspicious of gob.

Even if we screw up and hit town, the SK can simply choose not to NK and we'll move to Day 3. Or if his hunches are good he'll hit scum, which would be even better.

It's interesting how he's positive the SK can choose to no kill. And how he says it'll be okay if we mislynch today.

Like you, I read the PM.

Gob says I applied a time constraint but I’ve done no such thing. Any one of those three could have unvoted but they did not. I could have simply hammered in #244 but I did not. What I applied was a time extension before hanging the player who has been my explicit #1 suspect for most of the day.

I honestly would have unvoted, not that it means much now, and I never got a chance. -Would it really hurt to wait a little longer for avina? A "time extension" doesn't really do much when that person has no chance to check the thread and see it. You basically said "you have a few hours to post or you're dead" which IS blackmail. That really looks to me just as a way to justify your hammer.

In every single game I've played in, any time a townie is lynched

someone

says "I would have unvoted, but you didn't give me enough time."

Everyone agrees that it's bad play to hammer without warning, but no one agrees on how much time is enough. At the time he was hammered, Avin hadn't posted in seven days - Sunday to Sunday. He says he was on self imposed internet ban for finals week, but he really should have let us know he was V/LA. Also, Avin was at L-1 for over 24 hours.

I dislike two of Ythill's moves. I don't like the rush-lynch on avinashv

Why is gob trying to put the blame on Ythill for avin's lynch? He posted after Avin was put on L-1 and Ythill had announced his intent to hammer. Gob could have unvoted, if he was concerned about the supposed speed of the lynch.

Sorry this is a little disjointed, I don't have much time today. For now, FoS goborage.

I don't have a problem with the lynch itself. I have a problem with the actions people took while lynching. As I've pointed out earlier it seems OOC for Ythill to rush-lynch.

So from what I gather you think I'm suspicious but not Dave, Ythill, or JD? Why not?

[goborage]

Because there's no rush. Isn't the general consensus that more discussion = good? If it is then I could make the case that you're doing something anti-town.

[goborage]

@ Seth "So from what I gather you think I'm suspicious but not Dave, Ythill, or JD? Why not?"

[goborage]

@Seth - Ya I guess we're a three man mafia team. What do you think of Dave?

@ JD - What would you think of an FBI-claim today?

[goborage]

Here's what I thought out:

Right now we have 3 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK (50/50 shot). If FBI were to claim and give us his search result it'd be 3 town (but 1 is confirmed), 2 mafia, 1 SK (3 scum out of 5 = 60% shot at hitting scum) plus the info on a person who isn't SK (but may be mafia).

3 FBI-claim possibilities:

a) hit mafia - SK will kill finder and Day 3 will be 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK - lylo: if town doesn't hit SK they lose.

b) Best case (in the FBI claim scenario): hit SK - Day 3 will be 3 town (1 confirmed), 2 mafia - lylo

c) Worse case scenario is we hit town and are left with 2 town (1 is a FBI), 2 mafia, 1 SK on Night 2. The SK cannot kill the FBI or he'll lose. So he has to either gamble on a 2/3 chance of hitting mafia or not NK. The FBI also gets another search chance.

Day 3: If the SK bags a mafia then we have 2 town (1 is confirmed), 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Lylo: if town doesn't hit SK it loses.

Day 3: If the SK chooses not to NK we have 2 town (1 is confirmed), 2 mafia and 1 SK. Lylo: if town doesn't hit mafia it loses.

Non-claim Scenarios

If we don't have our FBI claim, we're at 50/50 for hitting scum.

The scenario for b) is pretty much the same except it would be less likely that we actually hit the SK. (KIND OF BAD compared to FBI claim b))

scenario c) makes NKing mafia harder for the SK because it adds the possibility of the SK hitting the FBI. (BAD compared to FBI-claim c))

scenario a) will change a lot. W/o the FBI claim the lynch will be harder. But if we lynch mafia we'll have 3 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK night 2. Day 3 can either be 2 town (there's a possibility that FBI is alive), 1 mafia, 1 SK - lylo OR 3 town (an FBI in there somewhere) and 1 SK (which is the very best possible scenario and only possible without an FBI claim, unfortunately it is unlikely to happen). (GOOD compared to FBI-claim a))

I apologize if this is hard to follow - my head is feeling kind of fuzzy. My conclusion is that an FBI claim may be a good idea right now. It's the most conservative plan but it does have its downsides. Everyone please read over what I wrote and point out any problems with it. There may be a scenario that I've neglected.

[goborage]

cop-claim scenario c) Day 3 where the SK chooses not to NK is auto loss for town. My new conclusion is that if you are certain you can hit scum then the FBI claim is bad. If you are uncertain then an FBI claim may be good.

[goborage]

Based on the events of yesterday, my current views are as follows. Dave and Cam are the most likely mafia. Either Gob or Seth are the SK. JD is town.

I’m not opposed to a D2 FBI claim but I’m also not sure about gob’s projections. I think the chances for town might be even better than he’s claiming.

How'd you connect Dave and Cam as mafia? I don't see how you can be so sure that Seth or I are SK either.

If there's something wrong with my projections can you address them directly? Don't just give it a quick glance and dismiss it - what exactly is wrong with them?

@JD - just to be clear, you think Ythill is SK?

[goborage]

No atm. If discussion starts to stagnate or we can't make a consensus vote then yes.

[goborage]

I was hoping JD was going to post his case against Seth.

Anyways I'm in agreement that Ythill's "poll" could be a gambit. Based on people's reactions to the plan the SK could probably pick out who is or isn't the FBI.

[goborage]

Why are you guys claiming right now? Ythill you just said that the FBI shouldn't claim if he investigated Jenter. What if the FBI did investigate Jenter? By claiming you guys are making it easier for SK to find FBI.

[goborage]

I'm ok with doing Ythill's idea: not lynching the FBI and the investigated. If everyone agrees then the potential lynch candidates are myself, Dave, Ythill, and Sethaniel.

I'm leaning towards Dave being the SK but TBH I don't have a lot to go on.

[goborage]

Dave's playstyle would be counter-productive to SK.

Explain please.

Since cam is town and I still believe JD is town, it comes down to which of the SK suspects I think is acting more like mafia and my pick would have to be Seth. Which means gob is the SK. Interesting little preemptive defense in #319, huh?

vote: goborage

What constitutes "more like mafia"? Your read on 319 is pure WIFOM - it could just as easily have been a pro-town move. The fact that you even put that out there makes me suspicious of you.

[goborage]

Explain please.

Already have. SK must hunt until one scum is dead. Dave is not hunting. Dave is mafia and therefore not the SK.

I don't agree with this. Just because Dave isn't hunting doesn't mean he's not SK. In fact it would be a huge inconsistency for him to start when he's been silent for so long. Besides your theory assumes that the SK is making logical plays. I think we've come to the conclusion that Dave is a noob.

Another thing that is not WIFOM: you were the one person to explicitly stall the claim other than the FBI, and you did so by advocating a straight scum lynch when it is clearly in the town's best interests to hang the SK today.

I never advocated a mafia lynch. I completely agree that an SK lynch would be best. Besides if I was SK I wouldn't stall. I'd love to know who the FBI is (Dave agreed pretty fast even though he did not contribute to the meta-discussion at all).

[goborage]

@ Dave: You've never voted Avinas. Why did you say you had?

I made a mistake. I have not voted him. Yet my name is on the Voute Count.

Dave's "mistake" was made

before

the incorrect Vote Count was posted, so that's not a valid reason.

I want to hear from Dave and avin on this issue.

I don't think Seth and Dave are scumbuddies partly because of this.

Seth is the only one who posted support for the case and he didn't question my motives at all.

I don't see how this connects Seth with Dave. If anything it connects you and Seth.

You then withdrew your support from the claiming idea shortly after it was shown to be an effective method for hunting the SK alone.

I never withdrew anything. Right from the start I was on the fence with the claim plan. But since you asked everyone to vote and people started claiming, I realized at that point the SK could probably pick out the FBI. I figured we might as well all claim at this point. Anyways just to make it clear, I support the Cam-JD protection idea.

[goborage]

No. In order for me to withdraw support for something, I would have had to have supported it in the first place. As I said I have been on the fence the entire time. And why is it so impossible for Dave to be SK? I think your views on what an SK can and can't do are too narrow. BTW about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him? I think his level of experience will come up pretty clear once you do.

[goborage]

Back to the game:

about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him?

If this is his first game, how would that help?

You know people can sign up for more than one game even when they're newbs. How about you actually check his posts?

I still think gob is most likely SK.
In his post #21, he puts avinas at L-1 and asks that the hammer be held until avinas has a chance to claim, and again in his #23 he says "there is no rush, I'm willing to wait for a roleclaim." The only claim that can be made in this game is FBI, and at that point in the game, only the SK would have had an interest in outing the FBI.

Asking for a roleclaim is a null-tell. Dave agreed to my request as well, does that make him the second SK?

[goborage]

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

This leaves camisade/Ythill/Dave. If gob =/= town then gob = SK.

I'm going to vote for whichever of these three gets a vote first, and no one else.

Really? You would vote for camisade if I did it first?

[goborage]

Sorry don't have much to say.

Vote: Dave.

He's my pick for SK because of all of us, he has the least connections to other players.

[goborage]

JD, you said you'd vote for whoever got voted first. Are you not suspicious of Dave?

[goborage]

Mod: The vote count is off. Ythill and Seth have their votes on me and I have a vote on TSQ.

[goborage]

I didn’t need to hear more from A, and I explained why. Obviously neither Dave nor gob needed to hear more from him either, but they tried to pretend that they did which is far scummier than anything you’ve posted about me.

How is waiting for the potential lynchee to make a final post scummy?

[goborage]

On the hammer: No, thats not how it works. Considering a large % of the town had called for a claim, if you were a townie, it is still in your best interest to let the player claim even if you did not personally need it, because it is good for the town. Keeping the pressure of a player on l-1 is not the same thing as hammering prematurely when pretty much all of the town have expressed a desire to wait. The way you're going about it now makes it seem like you hammered when you did BECAUSE it could be blamed on two other people as well.

I completely agree. I honestly assumed that you wouldn't hammer after I requested you not to. I may have asked this earlier: what was your rush Ythill?

[goborage]

Lol I'm pretty sure everyone except for Seth has called you out on your play (scumpair?). Just curious, would you make the same play again in the future?

[goborage]

Unvote, Vote: Ythill

In my eyes, better you than me.

[goborage]

Unvote, Vote: Ythill

In my eyes, better you than me.

WHat do you think of the case on ythill?

Do you believe he is scum? If so, why did you not vote for him earlier? If not, don't you think it would be more rational to vote for a player who you DO think is scum, and attempt to steer the town that way?

If you had to name 1 player sk and 2 mafia, who would you choose?

My old model was TSQ = SK. It didn't fly. Both mafia and town are looking for the SK and are presumably voting for him. Since there's not too much danger of vote manipulation, I'm willing to support a lynch that a majority thinks is right.

Anyways I can see a line of logic behind Ythill being SK. Based on his antagonistic interactions with JD and TSQ, I doubt he'd be in cahoots with either. I suppose a Seth/Ythill link is possible but it seems too obvious. So therefore Ythill is either SK or town. Here's hoping he's SK.

[goborage]

Ya that was the hammer. Now we play the waiting game.

@ Seth: If Ythill is mafia and I'm the SK then who is his partner? Grimmy is confirmed town so Ythill's "partner" must be voting for Ythill.

[goborage]

Lol OK. So what you're saying is that you don't know who Ythill's scum-partner is. How could you put so little thought into your vote and why are you voting for someone you think is mafia? Is this something a townie would do? Na, I think your vote leans towards the SK side.

[goborage]

You know what? Seth's vote doesn't count because he didn't unvote.

Unvote, Vote: Seth

[goborage]

431 and 434 set off alarms.

Seth really doesn't seem to care who gets lynched, nor does he have any thought on the scum setup. I can only attribute this behaviour to an SK.

Anyways from the votes we can see that Ythill does not have a scum partner. I think it's pretty clear he is either town or SK. Atm I'm not certain enough to lynch him so let's have some more discussion!

True or False: Seth = SK.

[goborage]

After re-reading again, Im off the fence now.

Vote: Goborage

My reasons for suspecting Ythil apply even more to you. You had MORE than enough time to lift your vote off of avin, and made a few coments about how much danger he was in, all the while you were holding your vote on him anyway. Now when you brought up Ythil's possible lynch, stating that Seth did not unvote first, YOU LIFTED YOUR VOTE TO SAVE YTHIL.

You, sir, are now at L-1

May Grimm have mercy on your soul.

Grimmy

I'm having trouble following your train of thought. You're somehow equating my Seth vote to my not unvoting avinas? Exactly how does either action make me scummy? And if not unvoting avinas = scummy then do you suspect Dave/TSQ?

[goborage]

I never said that TSQ and Seth aren't scum buddies.

Me asking you for your reasoning behind your vote isn't scummy. Fishing for info? What info do you have?

I don't think you understand. There are several possible scenarios running in my head. Picking an SK is a crapshoot. Depending on who it is, certain mafia pairings become impossible. Again, I'd like to point out the lack of thought Seth has put into this game.

Why are you talking in third person? Is this some ridiculous attempt to buddy up with the confirmed town?

[goborage]

O you got me. Dave = TSQ. In the event that Ythill is SK I suppose Dave + JD or Seth + JD are most likely.

[goborage]

@ Seth: Nice dirty trick. All you would have gotten was "bah, go town" or something of the sort, but I like your style.

Seth really doesn't seem to care who gets lynched, nor does he have any thought on the scum setup. I can only attribute this behaviour to an SK.

Actually, the role least likely to care who gets lynched (so long as it is not them) at this point is mafia.

There are several possible scenarios running in my head. Picking an SK is a crapshoot. Depending on who it is, certain mafia pairings become impossible.

We talked about this D1, it's not that difficult. First we identify the FBI and his confirmed non-SK, then we pick out the mafia, then we know who the SK is. It's not the other way around, because one mafia must die for the SK to win and the SK will therefore be harder to catch.

I'm noting that, with me making a strong defense, gob has now taken the "OMG anyone but me!" approach to voting.

I'm also noting that, when questioned, Seth has conveniently forgotten that he

did

name my supposed buddy: TSQ. Maybe he's decided he doesn't want to bus anymore?

Strong defense? Don't give yourself so much credit. Your reading of D1 is ridiculous and only Seth (and maybe cam's replacement) agree with you. I'm tired of arguing.

Anyways I disagree with mafia not caring about the lynch. If I were them I would definitely be hunting and voting for the SK. The SK may or may not care about bagging a mafia. Why? Because by N2, worse case he'll have a 2/3 chance of picking one off.

[goborage]

If I was SK why would I care what you think? Fishing for what? You obviously could not answer my question.

"Um, only if he forgot how the game works. If the SK doesn't get rid of mafia, he might get endgamed."

Did you even read my entire post?

@ Seth: What is Ythill's role?

@ Ythill, Seth, Cam Jr: What is your case for me being SK? The fact that I didn't unvote avinas but asked to wait for a claim? Is that all?

[goborage]

2/3? I like those odds. I did suggest earlier that if Ythill was SK, a combo involving JD and someone else would be my best guess.

Page 12:

Vote: Sethaniel

Case forthcoming when I have the time.

Mind making that post?

I dismissed Dave/TSQ + Seth in 335 which was based off of post 215. What does everyone else think about that judgment?

[goborage]

Wow. I'm really bad at this game. I did not think Ythill was the SK.

Still think gob is scummy, though.

anyone else have any thoughts?

Link me with a partner please.

[goborage]

JDodge make you case against Seth please. We've been waiting for a quite a while.

[goborage]

@ Seth: Who is my partner? What do you think of Dave/TSQ?

[goborage]

How so? If people are truly scum-hunting, they should really be putting more thought into the game. Frankly Seth is not. He seems to think I'm scummy based on Ythill's reasonings, which as we now know, were largely constructed to save himself from a lynch.

@ Seth: Why am I scummy?

But it's not just Seth. Everyone here seems to be lurking/not playing. Maybe they want a DL to come up to make parking votes and lynching easier. Maybe they want to avoid bussing their partners.

Don't you think there's a possibility that scum are actively trying not to post too much about other people to avoid links? I've asked JD and Seth Qs about other people which they have avoided doing so far. TSQ seems to have seen my Qs coming towards him and preemptively made a post justifying this play-style.

What really bugs me is our confirmed player has done absolutely zero scum-hunting.

[goborage]

You still haven't posted the case against Seth, even though you promised it several weeks ago. You actually said you found Seth scummy D1 so I don't see how you can say that your read on him is purely associative.

And if we are scum-partners what precisely links us together?

Anyways I've dismissed a Seth/JD pairing. Seth placed an L-1 vote yesterday on JD which I seriously doubt he'd do if he were his partner. TSQ I imagine would be more savvy as scum and I believe that he is distancing himself from JD by pretending to vote for him.

That leaves JD/TSQ and Seth/TSQ.

I'm leaning towards JD/TSQ seeing as how I doubt Seth would bus if he were scum. There were some antagonistic posts between Seth and Dave D1 that seemed genuine to me.

So I'm planning on voting for TSQ.

I am going to assume that gob will likely vote and/or FoS me as soon as he gets on, so let me save you the time by asking what links me to Sethaniel and/or Shea before you lose this game for us.

Does this quote sound as if JD knows info about me that he shouldn't? "before you lose the game for us" sounds like "before you make a mistake". If I were scum how could I make a mistake? I think that JD knows I'm town (because he's scum) and is trying to make me second-guess myself.

I have decided that gob is likely town and Seth is almost certainly town.

Haha so what happened between then and now? D1 Seth was scummy, D2 he's town, D3 he's scum again.

Dave is a little tougher to nail. He hardly posted D1 and TSQ is refusing to post anything more than the bare minimum.

As to linking JD with Dave - I noticed that there was very little interaction between the two D1. Dave put a random vote on JD. When asked about their scum-rankings both place each other somewhere in the middle (Posts 140 & 175). What I find interesting is that pretty much everyone except for JD (and Jenter for obv reasons) calls Dave out for lurking or some other anti-town move. JD is silent about matters revolving Dave. Why is that? It's the lack of interaction between the two that I find suspicious.

[goborage]

I'm talking about today.

[goborage]

OK fine, then there's nothing stopping you now. Any particular reason why you think JD and/or I are scum?

[goborage]

If Shea's only posting the bare minimum, then Grimmy's and Seth's activity levels are completely unacceptable. Why aren't you on their cases about that?

I am. Read the posts on the previous page.

I think that I'm trying to save myself the hassle of dealing with this bullshit today, and I think that anyone on the pro-town level would realize that the game essentially would end if we lynched a townie yesterday.

A quote taken out of context used by me to help keep the town from mislynching

The post was made at the start of Day 3 - AFTER Ythill's lynch. The fact that you don't know the context of the post makes me uneasy. I guess scum don't need to keep up with the game; they already know everything there is to know right?

Your post was a preemptive strike against me because I already discussed my pairing scenarios D2. If your intention really was to "help keep the town from mislynching" then why is the quote directed at me? And why does it sound like you're identifying me as town?

Me changing my mind over the span of 3 days.

Sounds like scum trying to justify throwing out accusations whenever it's convenient. What would help convince me is a reference to specific posts where Seth's alignment changes from town to scum and vice-versa

Yes. I found Dave middling and unreadable. Therefore, I admit that I have pretty much ignored Dave.

Me ignoring someone whom I had no opinion on and did not plan on creating an opinion on.

Do not like. Why didn't you direct any questions towards him?

After finding Ythill your attention to this game has really dropped. I'd say you were on the ball D1 and D2 but D3 it seems like you've stopped trying. I can only speculate that this is because you already have all the info.

So what's your case against me and Seth?

[goborage]

Attempt # 2 - @ TSQ: Any particular reason why you think JD and/or I are scum?

[goborage]

If Shea's only posting the bare minimum, then Grimmy's and Seth's activity levels are completely unacceptable. Why aren't you on their cases about that?

I am. Read the posts on the previous page.

Then why is this enough to condemn Shea and not Seth?

I'm condemning both equally. TSQ just happens to be around so I threw it in his face again so he'd reply. Once Seth starts posting again he'll get it too.

Your post was a preemptive strike against me because I already discussed my pairing scenarios D2. If your intention really was to "help keep the town from mislynching" then why is the quote directed at me? And why does it sound like you're identifying me as town?

My post was saving us the trouble of playing screw-around for the next 5 days as we post about meaningless and useless trumped-up bullshit whilst you spend your time continuing to go on a one-man crusade to completely and utterly paint me as scum while not actually voting. So now I'm calling you on it - if you're so convinced, vote on it. Stop pussy-footing around and do it. Granted it makes no sense considering

both the scenarios you mentioned earlier contain Shea as a common denominator

, but whatever floats your boat.

While you may not like posting, I do, and I'm sure the other townies do as well. These posts aren't meaningless, why would you suggest they are? Sounds like scum trying to hush up town. Less conversation = good for you right?

I actually was planning on voting TSQ although you are pressuring me to do it sooner than I'd like. I was leaning towards you being TSQ's partner earlier and I'm not any less convinced.

Vote: TSQ

Expect a vote from me D4.

Me changing my mind over the span of 3 days.

Sounds like scum trying to justify throwing out accusations whenever it's convenient. What would help convince me is a reference to specific posts where Seth's alignment changes from town to scum and vice-versa

I could, but that would require me remembering what my exact frame of mind was betwixt each post that I made regarding Seth. Note also (and I will add this) that my opinion of Seth changed back to scum

after a reread searching for connections

. I believe I noted that, but you may have ever-so-conveniently left it out way back when.

So essentially you are suspicious of Seth, but are unable (I think unwilling is more likely) to explain exactly why. Again this is far too convenient. I'm trying to measure the level of honesty behind your actions but you are giving me and town very little to work with.

Yes. I found Dave middling and unreadable. Therefore, I admit that I have pretty much ignored Dave.

Me ignoring someone whom I had no opinion on and did not plan on creating an opinion on.

Do not like. Why didn't you direct any questions towards him?

Because I wanted Ythill lynched and didn't want to distract from that.

I'm talking about D1.

So what's your case against me and Seth?

My case against Seth is that I can connect him to you. My case against you is that you can be connected to Seth and now your half-assed offensive (which I can tell Shea is loving from the sidelines; gob-Shea connection possible), which makes me have no regrets as I

vote: goborage

. Please die post-haste.

If anybody's case is half-assed it yours. It's incredibly vague and has no meat behind it beyond "you're scummy 'cause I said so."

Again I ask you where is this connection between me and Dave? A specific post would be nice.

[goborage]

Just covering my bases. I could very well be wrong about JD but I've convinced myself that I can't be wrong about you. And as long as I hit a scum today, town can't lose. Tomorrow, I lynch either JD or Seth. If one turns up town the other is scum.

My decision is based on the theory that Seth wouldn't L-1 his partner, therefore no Seth + JD combo. From there it's simple elimination.

What do you think? Do you think Seth would L-1 his partner?

[goborage]

From the start? D1? Even if you can't link me to a partner what precisely makes me scum? Because you agree with Ythill? At least post a case (if you have one), you're not just throwing a vote out, you're trying to convince Grimmy.

@ TSQ: I've explained. It's based on Seth not being partners with JD. That leaves TSQ + JD or TSQ + Seth. You're the common element. If you want to argue against me, you'd have to convince me that Seth could be JD's partner.

[goborage]

OK you've won me over TSQ. The fact that you didn't end the game right there convinces me that you're town. It's JD & Seth.

Unvote, Vote: JD

[goborage]

If you think JD is scum please put the vote on him. Then we'll let Grimmy decide.

[goborage]

If he was scum with you he'd vote me and end the game.

[goborage]

If TSQ was scum with Seth, he'd vote me and end the game. So TSQ is either town with me, or scum with me. Your choice, Grimmy.

Mod: Prod Grimmy please. He's posting in other games but ignoring this one.