Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

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Post Post #1875 (ISO) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:13 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 1869, Davsto wrote:
In post 1801, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.
My I ask precisely where you got this from?
I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question
Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%
Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!

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Post Post #1876 (ISO) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:22 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

On [Eddie, Marquis, NSG] team, I want to mention that Marquis's #24 is weird and feels like he voted North to distance.
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Post Post #1877 (ISO) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:35 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

I think tier list shitposts should be left to the person that has Ranger on their team.
In post 1876, Ranmaru wrote:On [Eddie, Marquis, NSG] team, I want to mention that Marquis's #24 is weird and feels like he voted North to distance.
What does this have to do with Eddie?
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Post Post #1878 (ISO) » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:42 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

I think that is the team, and when I say that, I'm saying 'related to this team'. It's more of an interaction between Marquis and North, and if Eddie flips scum I want people to keep that post in mind so it helps their reads tomorrow. I've already explained why I think NSG may be scum with him.
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Post Post #1879 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:56 am

Post by MathBlade »

MOD NotesProdding northsidegal and Marquis.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1880 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:03 am

Post by MathBlade »

Votecount 2.12


Marquis(2)
~ ,
LicketyQuickety(2)
~ ,
northsidegal(1)
~
Dunnstral(1)
~


Not Voting (1): northsidegal

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1881 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:26 am

Post by ActionDan »

Will post tonight. Haven't had much time lately
I'll give you a moment to let that sink in
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Post Post #1882 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:43 am

Post by Dunnstral »

What is the hesitation here?
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Post Post #1883 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:44 am

Post by Dunnstral »

Actually

VOTE: Marquis
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Post Post #1884 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:02 am

Post by Ranmaru »

Just waiting for Marquis, NSG, and ActionDan. I am ready to end the day after that. [All who have been prodded, one is not voting]
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Post Post #1885 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:30 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Eddie Deep Dive:

post 136
Eddies first post in the game, and I don't love this post. We have a bunch of hand wave-y bullshit here including "I wouldn't pick scum in this game" which is a meaningless argument along with "mastina is amazing and therefore ... " which also doesn't mean anything. Additionally, this post has one of my favorite, which is an overall struggle to find players to scum read, while throwing out town tells like candy. In this post on page 6 he declares llamarble town and action town with little to no justification, and his attack on lycan is nonsense. He came in and voted? How is that a scum tell. He ignores me and NSG completely.

post 192

This is the post that caused NSG to town read eddie, and to be fair I see their point. BUT as I mentioned at the time this is something I often do myself as scum, find a little something to post fluff about that doesn't actually effect the focus of the day and doesn't ruffle any feathers and doesn't put pressure anywhere.

post 208

Mastina is referenced several times at the beginning of his iso, but in a very superficial and name-droppy way. We get one further read list from mastina, (here in post 1343) despite the fact that she's been around and people (like postie) ask Eddie to talk about their thoughts on the game. This reads like there was an initial plan to make it seem like teammates were involved in the game and then it sort of faded away. I would be much more inclined to expect team mates to be helping with town games rather than scum games, with some exceptions. As it turns out, eddie mentions mastina a whole bunch of times and only mentions a single other teammate once. Is there a reason that he thought that none of his teammates besides the one who prides herself on her (admittedly terrible) scum play would be reading this game?

He also has a weird buddy buddy vibe going on with me
post 370 is an example of this. This is not typically how I would expect town players to interact with other town players.

Perhaps the biggest problem with Eddie from the perspective of this game is that he doesn't seem to have done anything. And I don't mean that he hasn't made posts, but rather that he posts huge gigantic walls that don't really seem to accomplish anything.

post 943 is a good example.

It literally takes me 4 mouse wheel scrolls to go through it, so you would expect it to be filled with tons of opinions on the game or maybe a case against a scum read or what not.

No. It contains the following:
1) My schedule is hectic.
2) Answer to the question "should I answer cases against me?" by LQ.
3) I think you are null LQ.
4) Don't be AtE LQ.
5) anger at llamarbles attempt to game solve.
6) Reiteration of mastinas read which was stated in post 1, which was like 30 posts earlier.
7) Calling llamarble correct for saying he was town.
8) "I'm always scummy"
9) Reiteration that he doesn't like how llamarbles reads shift.
10) "I know I'm going to flip town"
11) "Fuck you I'm not voting"
12) 8 gifs/images.

The problem isn't the one post, its that he has posted almost exclusively this and one liner questions which he doesn't follow up on.

He hasn't really "pushed" anyone the whole game. Sure, he's voted, but I don't get the impression he has any desire to push the days lynches to where he thinks they should go.

Tl;dr version:

1) I think hes playing this game by posting massively sized posts to distract from the fact that hes doing NOTHING.

2) I think the fact that mastina specifically is the one teammated he consistently references is telling.

3) I think his interactions with me feel off, and he's interacting with people in a way that does not look designed to find scum.

4) I think postie's meta case is good.
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Post Post #1886 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:30 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

I'm happy with this lynch.
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Post Post #1887 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:38 am

Post by Davsto »

I hate to delay the GE ISO again but a crisis with one of my friends occurred and I'm a little drained and it's semi-late and I don't really want to rush it

To be honest his ISO is massive, about 200 posts, so I'll probably do it over the game night because I don't want to be rushing it because of arbitrary deadlines I set. I'll see if I can get it done beforehand (I'd like to) but over the game night is my final aim to have it done (especially since I'm busy tomorrow night and wednesday).
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Post Post #1888 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:42 am

Post by Davsto »

In post 1875, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 1869, Davsto wrote:
In post 1801, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.
My I ask precisely where you got this from?
I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question
Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%
Huh, that's a cool way of doing things. It also pretty much answers my planned followup question of "how is 55% scum that great of a chance", as seeing it relatively and in context helps it make more sense.
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Post Post #1889 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:47 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 1875, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 1869, Davsto wrote:
In post 1801, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.
My I ask precisely where you got this from?
I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question
Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%
How has this never come up in any of the games I've played with you before?

Has this came up before ever?

Can you point me to other times you've talked about this method.
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Post Post #1890 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:52 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Ranmaru


I remember you asking me a question but I can't seem to find it here as I catch up. Can you shoot it my way again (if I'm remembering correctly.)

Can you tell me why you have [ad nsg] ahead of [dunn]? I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.
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Post Post #1891 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:04 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 1875, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 1869, Davsto wrote:
In post 1801, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.
My I ask precisely where you got this from?
I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question
Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%
Explain your method.. otherwise it just looks like you are making up numbers.
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Post Post #1892 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:12 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?
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Post Post #1893 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:13 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Like you're literally quoting the post where he's explaining his method and telling you that part of it involves making up some numbers and you're responding "EXPLAIN YOUR METHOD! OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE MAKING UP NUMBERS!"
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Post Post #1894 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:17 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 1892, Thestatusquo wrote:a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?
A) He did not explain his method, he literally said he was making up numbers and then arbitralily manipulating them. Seriously? What constitutes a number being what it is? That was more my question. What are these numbers based on?

B) Tell me what the numbers are based on if he explained him method.
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Post Post #1895 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:21 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

a) he said it was a bit arbitrary. The fact that you don't like the method does not mean he didn't explain it.

b) I'll just quote you: "he literally said he was making up numbers and then ... manipulating them"

If you think his method is bad feel free to attack it, but suggesting that he hasn't explained it when literally in your point a you say what he does because he explained it is a bad look.

And I edited out the arbitrarily in your sentence, because while its clear that some amount of the process is guess work, it doesn't look to me like anything he said about it suggests its at random.
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Post Post #1896 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:22 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

key word is "bit." he says the initial numbers are basically guesses.

how is that any different from posting that someone is a "town lean"

how is it different in any way besides the fact that hes trying to quantify his reads differently than you are?
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Post Post #1897 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:45 am

Post by Lycanfire »

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Post Post #1898 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:57 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

@Shea, what do the numbers actually stand for? That's what he hasn't answered and that is what I think is the most important thing in his whole numbers thing.
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Post Post #1899 (ISO) » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:04 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1890, Thestatusquo wrote:I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.
Let's hear it

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