Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[Andycyca]

Vote Count:

JDodge- 3 (Dave, Jenter Brolincani, Sethaniel)
avinashv- 2 (camisade, goborage)
Jenter Brolincani- 2 (avinashv, JDodge)

Not voting (1): Ythill

5 to lynch.

[Ythill]

Noting that avin and JDodge have made the scummy FBI-should-claim argument and are both still random voting Jenter, who has a a reputation as an easy mislynch.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The full scenario, let's put these stats to rest at last.

Thanks to Simetrical on TWCenter for his help on this;

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Shit. I did make a mistake and it is 4/6 not 2/7. Apologies for this. The 7/7 is the fact that With a massclaim the SK will KNOW who the agent is and will so have a 7/7 chance of hitting town.

Taking into account all possibilites, an actual model is;

JDODGE;
4/7 hitting town today. 1/7 hits SK, 2/7 hits scum.
Hit scum, 2/7 SK hits town, 1/1
Hit town, 4/7, Sk hits town, 1/1
Hit SK, 1/7, ..., 0/1

1/7 SK down
4/7 2 town down
2/7 1 scum, 1 town down.

NORMAL LYNCH

Two scum die: first the town must hit a scum (2/8), then the serial killer must (1/6). Total probability: 2/48.

Two town die: first the town must hit a town (5/8), then the serial killer must (4/6). Total probability: 20/48.

Serial killer dies: easy, 1/8 (= 6/48).

One town and one scum: two possibilities. Either the town hits a town (5/8) and the SK hits a scum (2/6) = 10/48; or the town hits a scum (2/8) and the SK hits a town (5/6) = 10/48. Total probability is 20/48.

2 scum; 1/24
1 scum 1 town; 10/24
2 town; 10/24
SK; 3/24

Right, make those equivalent;

Normal;

2 scum; 1/24
1:1; 10/24
2 town; 10/24
SK; 3/24

Jdodge;
2 scum; No chance
1:1; 8/24
2 town; 16/24
SK; 4/24

So with Jdodge's plan;
That's a vast increase in the chance of losing 2 townies before d2, over 50%. Our chances of losing ANY scum before d2 go down to 12/24 compared to 14/24 normally, or chances of losing 2 scum decrease to nothing.

[Ythill]

Okay, I had to read it three times but I get what you're saying and it looks correct. I think I'd have had an easier time with it if the odds had been reduced (i.e. 3/24 = 1/8) but good job anyway.

I'm not sure getting help from outside the thread is appropriate. So goodbye if you are modkilled.

I think this math chat might be losing some of the players (or boring them to death) and we should end it soon, though JDodge should get a chance to respond first.

Above and beyond the statistics, I think it's going to be important for us to keep the FBI alive as long as possible. Please realize that it behooves the SK to scumhunt, because being stuck in a 2s:1t:1 situation on D3 will be very problematic for him. Furthermore, because he has no buddies there will be no interaction clues. So long as he is careful with his NKs, the SK will be

very

difficult to catch. The chance of the FBI catching him might be slim, but it also might be crucial to winning this game.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I assumed that it would be fine if it was just maths help... It doesn't say anything in the rules against it.

I agree woith our last paragraph totally, though; and that's what makes me dislike JDodge's plan even more, it's rolefishing.

[Sethaniel]

I think this math chat might be losing some of the players (or boring them to death) and we should end it soon, though JDodge should get a chance to respond first

qft

[Andycyca]

I'm not sure getting help from outside the thread is appropriate. So goodbye if you are modkilled.

Math is an exact science, so theoretically he could've gotten those same results without external help. I won't count it. Remember our Backup-mod's words:

2. We work on the honor system -- honestly, if you feel the need to cheat here, we might as well call you StallingChamp.

[avinashv]

I don't think JDodge is a strong lynch candidate based on the reasons presented here---I don't particularly have a read one way or another on him, and these stats are just that...stats. It doesn't make him lynch-worthy at all.

@goborage re #43: Last line really caught my eye--Ythill unvoted, yet you seem very eager to lynch JDodge for what I think are poor reasons.

@dave: I'm agreeing with JDodge so we're automatically scum-buddies? What if we are two townies in agreement? What if he is scum and we are in agreement on the matter? Hell, what if *I* am scum and we are in agreement? Weak, weak argument.

[Sethaniel]

regarding the whole goborage post #43 issue-- isn't it possible he just didn't read carefully and didn't notice that Ythill had unvoted?

I'm inclined to (cautiously) agree that it would be a little obvious for avina and jd to be scumbuddies. They're the only two holding to the unpopular massclaim argument, and why would the scum single themselves out like that? I'd be more likely to cast one of them as the SK.

[Dave]

Fos avinashv because he was agreeing with Jdodge. Which makes him look "scummy" because i believe Jdodge to be anti town, they could possibly be "scum buddys".

@avinashv: Read what I wrote again, i said, you could

possibly

be scum buddys. I never stated i believe you are scum buddys, i said it is a possibility

[avinashv]

...ok. My argument doesn't change.

[JDodge]

I do not dispute the numbers.

I stand by my claim that massclaim wins games, that is a personal game philosophy of mine as adopted from Pie_is_good.

I stand by my call for massclaim by laughing in the face of stats. Ha ha ha ha ha.

I don't care if I am interpreted as scummy for suggesting massclaim. Deal with it.

[Ythill]

I like JDodge's defense here. It's in character and it dodges the easy route of changing one's views, instead finding a subtler, riskier way of standing up for those beliefs in the face of indisputable argument. I wouldn't say it looks pro-town but it certainly addresses my concerns.

Of the two

, I'd pick avin as scum and I'm really not sure I'd buy them as buddies.

Once I get some time I'll do my first reread and post some questions for everyone. Sorry I've been busy: just started a new job.

[avinashv]

Of the two, I'd pick avin as scum

How about you do me a favor and post your current scummiest player?

[Ythill]

Don't really have one yet. I suppose it would be you, technically, but I wouldn’t bet much on that being accurate. I believe you are scummier than Jdodge because you followed the meat of his opinion that was most beneficial to the SK while failing to support it with arguments.

The thread is gathering info. Rest assured: I will reread, ask some questions, and have a more reasonable suspect list soon. You will know my top suspect because I will be voting for him.

But, in the meanwhile, congratulations on not falling into the over-defensiveness trap.

[Ythill]

As promised:

@ JD: Thanks for taking the brunt of the opening assault. We’re finally getting some information into the thread. How much of your argument was meant to trap overzealous scum? Based on reactions, whom do you suspect?

@ gob: You’re still voting avin for his support of JD. Mafia is a team game, what’s wrong with supporting someone you agree with? Why are you not suspicious of those who are supporting one another on the other side of the argument?

@ Dave: You have the lowest post count at this point. Are you normally so reserved? Why has it taken you so long to basically agree with what others have posted?

@ cam: You don’t like Seth putting JD @ L-1, but you don’t say anything about Seth’s alignment. Why haven’t you questioned the person who undertook and stood by an action you think is bad for the town?

@ Seth: You limit your choice to JD or avinas because you say that voting anyone else would be a waste of time. Why is wasting time bad in this situation? What’s anti-town about exploring other options?

@ avinas: You agree with JD, citing the math which has now been questioned to the point that JD has changed his stance. Yet you are sticking to your guns without qualification. Why?

@ Jenter: I’m glad the math help didn’t get you in trouble. Anyway… you seem very focused on JD. Do you believe scum would enter the thread with such an obvious ploy? What do you think of the reactions to JD?

[JDodge]

Vote: Ythill

Commending me for sticking to my guns then asserting an alterior motive.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I don't personally like Jdodge's response. He's come into the thread, posted some (BS) math to support his rolefishing, and when a proper ciounter-argument (finally, sorry my first try was rubbish) comes up just says he doesn't think stats are important anyway, despite that being the lynchpin of his original argument in favour of the ploy and his arguing the contrary with Ythill.

Ythill; I'm currently focused on Jdodge because I really don't like his arguing and I think that;

a) Actually, most people couldn't have been bothered to do the math to prove him wrong (luckily for me I had Simetrical who probably did it in half a minute with no calculator).
b) It's a good gambit for SK to pull, if it works he's in the good times, if not (as has theoretically happened) sticking to his guns afterwards is a good way of not getting the traditional scumtell of wavering and changing your arguments to suit other people (altohugh actually in this case I'd have been far happier if he straight up admitted he was wrong).

I'll do a player-by-player analysis in the next few days, just got in from a loooong journey.

[JDodge]

So Jenter, for point B, it's essentially "damned if I do, damned if I don't", correct? Wouldn't that be an indicator that my actions are henceforth a null-tell considering the fact that any particular response would in some way be interpreted as scummy?

It can't be a scumtell unless there is a similar action that could be taken that would be a town-tell. Same for town-tells.

And were stats the lynchpin of my argument? No, the lynchpin of my argument was that massclaim wins games - something you have failed to disprove. You have disproven my means of arguing my point, not the point itself.

[Dave]

@ Dave: You have the lowest post count at this point. Are you normally so reserved? Why has it taken you so long to basically agree with what others have posted?

Yes.. I am reserved in most things i do, i tend to sit back not say much and think about what is going on. This is mafia, to win we have to analyse what other people say to try and find a scum tell, or something suspicious, so i pick my words carefully and dont rush into saying things that could get me lynched.

[camisade]

I stand by my claim that massclaim wins games, that is a personal game philosophy of mine as adopted from Pie_is_good.

So if you were FBI, you would claim right now??

@ JD: Thanks for taking the brunt of the opening assault. We’re finally getting some information into the thread. How much of your argument was meant to trap overzealous scum? Based on reactions, whom do you suspect?

What made you think his argument was mean to "trap overzealous scum" at all?

@ cam: You don’t like Seth putting JD @ L-1, but you don’t say anything about Seth’s alignment. Why haven’t you questioned the person who undertook and stood by an action you think is bad for the town?

I thought it was implied in my post, but looking back it wasn't really. I don't think it was really scummy though, more newb-y.

[JDodge]

If I were FBI, I would not claim unless I knew there would be a massclaim. Stop fishing.

FoS: camisade

[camisade]

If I were FBI, I would not claim unless I knew there would be a massclaim. Stop fishing.

FoS: camisade

I'm not fishing, I was wondering if you would practice what you preach. And I hate how your refuse to back down from your stupid argument, mass claim would really do basically nothing for us.

[goborage]

@ Dave: You have the lowest post count at this point. Are you normally so reserved? Why has it taken you so long to basically agree with what others have posted?

Yes.. I am reserved in most things i do, i tend to sit back not say much and think about what is going on. This is mafia, to win we have to analyse what other people say to try and find a scum tell, or something suspicious, so i pick my words carefully and dont rush into saying things that could get me lynched.

This isn't a very a good attitude. Discussion is key in mafia and staying quiet doesn't help anybody. This is a team game, and unless you're scum, the fear of getting lynched should not be a factor in your posting.

@ gob: You’re still voting avin for his support of JD. Mafia is a team game, what’s wrong with supporting someone you agree with? Why are you not suspicious of those who are supporting one another on the other side of the argument?

Why would I be suspicious of people just for not supporting an FBI claim? Assuming there was no other info other than whether you were pro-claim or anti-claim, I would lynch the pro-claimers. In my mind this hypothetical situation is pretty much the real one. At the risk of sounding newbish, I can't see anything I'd label as scummy.

avinashv is still # 1 on my list for supporting JD. JD has argued his position. Comparatively, avinashv just quietly agreed. If you were SK and someone (JD) was pushing for an FBI claim wouldn't you support him?

Tied for #2 would be JD and Dave for pushing FBI claim and for not being helpful to town respectively.

[avinashv]

I've played with JDodge before, and his play-style is...interesting . I never have a good read on him, because it seems that he's always a little scummy.

I've outlined already why I think a massclaim is a good idea (not what I was agreeing with in the first place, but I can't expect people to actually read my posts) and what I was *actually* agreeing to.

My PBPA:

@Ythill -- again, I only agree with

his reasoning

to the point where an FBI agent has no reason to false-claim.

@Dave -- lurkers are bad enough, but one who seems to think it is alright is even worse. As a pro-town play, that was a huge no-no, and as a scum play that seemed to be a tell.

FoS: Dave

.

@JDodge -- that Ythill vote was a bit random--I don't like the way you voted for him because it seemed that he attacked your integrity. For the moment I am putting this down to playstyle. Do you have a more...robust reason?

@camisade -- #72 was a big deal for me. You're essentially attacking him for having (and sticking) to an opinion. In #70 I most definitely agree with JDodge that you were fishing. Furthermore, JDodge is no longer at L-1, so you could happily vote for him, but you haven't done so yet. You just made my number 1 suspect.

Unvote, vote: camisade

.

@Senthaniel -- you seemed a bit jumpy when saying that JDodge and myself were the only candidates worth considering for a lynch--this is because we happen to agree on something. Trigger happy, much?

@gorborage -- I'm not convinced you were telling the truth about the #43 debacle. There's nothing you can do or say to change my mind about this, for pragmatic reasons, I just thought I would let you know. You asked me to explain my stance, mentioning you would unvote when I did. You seemed unconvinced; but where is my unvote? If you had already made up your mind, why ask me at all? Furthermore, you claimed I was SK because I agreed with JD. Why can JDodge not be SK for bringing up the entire thing to begin with?

@Jenter -- I'm interested in your PBPA. I am having the toughest time reading you right now. Your biggest contribution turned out to not actually be yours--you've really only made three posts with any significant analysis (correct or incorrect). Gun to my head I'd say you were town--but only because I've got bigger suspects. So yeah, PBPA!

Mod: thanks for making an active effort to have a vote-count on each page. That's

awesome

. I hope you keep it up.