Newbie 1454: Mafia Plain and Simple - Game Over

[ObsessedWithCats]

Just squeezing in a prod-dodge since the site was down last night. I'll have a more careful look at the thread when I'm more awake.

can we get.some lists?

I think that Xayzeck and pisskop are almost certainly town (pisskop's townslip, the general way Xayzeck's been playing the game), Geraint kinda town (I can't believe scum would draw so much attention as to bicker with pisskop as he did) and therefore two of IV, TSO and Rach are probably be scum. I'd be inclined to think it's IV and Rach, but I'll admit there's no real reason for that beyond gut.

[geraintm]

When you said our scumblocs and townblocs were opposite, I presumed you meant everything.

Apart from the hammer, why do you think pisskop? Articulate 3 bullet points.

Site was down and was Wednesday.

Think it unfair you want me to go into details when your 306 contains nothing.

[geraintm]

I like how you all think I am town because of how badly I am arguing btw

[pisskop]

OWC
IV, Rach, TSO

TSO
OWC, IV, Rach, Geraintm

Rach
OWC, pisskop, TSO
please update

IV
OWC, Xay, TSO

pisskop
OCW, IV, Geraintm

Xayzeck
IV, ?
please update

Geraintm
pisskop, everyone else but Xay
please update

is the above about right? I tried to include recent posts, null and left, err scumier.

IV = 4
Rach = 2
TSO = 3
OWC = 4
pisskop = 2
geraintm = 2
Xayzeck = 1

[pisskop]

@Xay

OWC makes my list because he has brief posts, I concerned about the night kil, and lately his absence. In a nutshell

[havingfitz]

Vote Count 2.05

With 7 alive it's 4 votes to lynch.

Voting for:

*

ObsessedWithCats - innocentvillager, RachMarie [2]

*geraintm -
*pisskop - geraintm [1]
*RachMarie -
*innocentvillager - Xayzeck [1]
*T S O -
*Xayzeck -

Not voting: ObsessedWithCats, pisskop, T S O [3]

Day 2 ends Dec 28, 2013 7:00 pm a.k.a. (expired on 2013-12-28 19:00:00) from now

.

[innocentvillager]

IV = 4
Rach = 2
TSO = 3
OWC = 4
pisskop = 2
geraintm = 2
Xayzeck = 1

I'm an idiot explain this please

I like how you all think I am town because of how badly I am arguing btw

No

the general way Xayzeck's been playing the game

Elaborate please

IV, I thought were reading me as newbscum, why am I null now? o_O

I never read you as newbscum. I just had my suspicions. I still do, but you're a lot more null to me than scum at this point. I'm willing to get OWC lynched first. The only reason it might have seemed like I was gunning for you as newbscum is because every single other person seemed to think you were like 100% town and no one explained it and I didn't really agree so yeah

Also like half of you think OWC is scum, could someone explain to me why that is? I'm aware of the probable 1on1off wagon thing that's happening, but why pick OWC from the off wagon list?

Actually for some reason the way you phrase this question gives me a newbtown vibe. Meh

Personally my fos on OWC has nothing to do with on or off the wagon. I agree with Rach that it is very likely that it is 1 off 1 on. I have a few other reasons for thinking OWC is scum, if you're interested:

-Scumvibes from his posts, his general attitude of trying to detract attention and maintain neutrality. Posts seem almost fabricated, too logical, and more for other people than himself.
-PoE
-342 raised alarms for me like I said in one of my posts, I was literally just saying he was scum but for some reason he got really annoyed by it
-I'm still a bit annoyed on his intro post. Coming in attacking everyone with the very first post is not a town mindset that I've generally observed; in fact, more often than not scum do this. I'm not sure if my psychological explanation is a valid justification for what I've experienced, but whatever the case my empirical data is the same.

Hey um

Does anyone want to tell me why they think I'm scum

Because to me I'm pretty fucking obvtown idk how you guys don't see this

Like I'm not just being hindsight biased or anything like literally this game more than any other I feel like I should be fairly distinctive town

OH I JUST REALIZED

I don't actually think pisskop's "townslip" was much of a townslip. I think he's town for probable other reasons (347), but the reason I don't think it's necessarily a townslip is that it could solely be due to terminology. Obviously he knows that this is called mafia; this whole site is called mafia and the title of this game is called mafia and people have been saying mafia this whole game so if he was in the habit of calling scum "wolves" then would one look at his role PM really change that habit necessarily? While it may be a marginal tell I don't think this alone is a true town-indicative comment. I wanted to pitch in my two cents to those of you who are fixated on the idea that pisskop is town for that one "townslip". Feel free to argue with me if you want.

[pisskop]

its tge number of times one appears on a scumlist. Its not complete, and some people (i.e. rach, xay) never made a formal list, at least not publicly.

[RachMarie]

ugggh site has been down again and again.

Plus have been getting things sorted for our trip.

We will have our laptops and kindles with us, and there is internet there. However most of tomorrow (Friday) NS and I will be tied up with getting to TN (including flying there). So V/LA for tomorrow and on Dec 30th (for flying back home), but other than that should be able to be active.

[T S O]

Guys I'm trying to phone post and I can't quote. I promise tonight I will wall the thread and sort this game the fuck out.

[T S O]

When you said our scumblocs and townblocs were opposite, I presumed you meant everything.

Apart from the hammer, why do you think pisskop? Articulate 3 bullet points.

Think it unfair you want me to go into details when your 306 contains nothing.

I don't think it's unfair at all that you're pushing a lynch barely anyone agrees with and when asked for a reason, you don't give any. Sorry about that.

IV, I thought were reading me as newbscum, why am I null now? o_O

I never read you as newbscum.

I just had my suspicions. I still do, but you're a lot more null to me than scum at this point.

I'm willing to get OWC lynched first. The only reason it might have seemed like I was gunning for you as newbscum is because every single other person seemed to think you were like 100% town and no one explained it and I didn't really agree so yeah

The bolded reads to me like you're setting up a mislynch today and then tomorrow.

Aside from that, I was and am considered very strong Town, as was bbMolla, as is pisskop. Why out of all of us did you choose Xayzeck? More to the point, if everyone thinks someone's Town, wouldn't that mean it's a more reliable read?

Also like half of you think OWC is scum, could someone explain to me why that is? I'm aware of the probable 1on1off wagon thing that's happening, but why pick OWC from the off wagon list?

Actually for some reason the way you phrase this question gives me a newbtown vibe. Meh

I'm going to address this "1 on/1 off" theory in a while, but I don't sense newbtown off that response. If anything, it's a very experienced remark.

Personally my fos on OWC has nothing to do with on or off the wagon. I agree with Rach that it is very likely that it is 1 off 1 on. I have a few other reasons for thinking OWC is scum, if you're interested:

-Scumvibes from his posts, his general attitude of trying to detract attention and maintain neutrality. Posts seem almost fabricated, too logical, and more for other people than himself.
-PoE
-342 raised alarms for me like I said in one of my posts, I was literally just saying he was scum but for some reason he got really annoyed by it
-I'm still a bit annoyed on his intro post. Coming in attacking everyone with the very first post is not a town mindset that I've generally observed; in fact, more often than not scum do this. I'm not sure if my psychological explanation is a valid justification for what I've experienced, but whatever the case my empirical data is the same.

I'm not doing casework but I promise you I'm looking into OWC.

I don't actually think pisskop's "townslip" was much of a townslip. I think he's town for probable other reasons (347), but the reason I don't think it's necessarily a townslip is that it could solely be due to terminology.

Obviously he knows that this is called mafia; this whole site is called mafia and the title of this game is called mafia and people have been saying mafia this whole game so if he was in the habit of calling scum "wolves" then would one look at his role PM really change that habit necessarily?

While it may be a marginal tell I don't think this alone is a true town-indicative comment. I wanted to pitch in my two cents to those of you who are fixated on the idea that pisskop is town for that one "townslip". Feel free to argue with me if you want.

If you were sent a message and the role you received was "Alien Goon", do you think you would call it "Alien Goon" or "Wolf Goon" in the thread?

Likewise, if the role you received was "Mafia Goon", do you think you would call it "Mafia Goon" or "Wolf Goon" in the thread?

This is a mindslip on a subconscious level and you cannot fake these things.

I agree with you pisskop is also Town on play but I'm a very strong believer in RVS tells, subconscious tells, etc.

You should also look at the bolded, as it strengthens my assertion, not yours.

[T S O]

[quote="In post 356, RachMarie"]
Since generally scum have one on and one off the wagon, let us start with the smaller pool, those off the wagon./quote]

This theory seems to have polarised the game, yet I disagree strongly with it. If I was scum in this game with a partner pushing a mislynch I would either get my hands dirty with my partner, or keep them clean with my partner, preferably the latter. This sets me up d2 to attack people who mislynched d1, getting them mislynched and bringing the game to LyLo.

This isn't a particularly groundbreaking idea in Newbies. It's pretty common. So I can't understand where your theory of 1/1 is coming from and I strongly disagree with it.

[T S O]

FUCKING QUOTE/

[T S O]

Was away all weekend, back and rereading. Catch-up promised.

Rach please don't flake

Not sure I like geraint's backing off from pisskop.

Terrible comeback post.

Not only is this short but it's vague. Asking Rach not to flake and then disappointingly coming up with your own lacking comeback post? Also you've commented like nothing on what's happened in the last few pages and just made generalizations about the last couple posts since then. Is geraint backing off from pisskop inherently scummy, or is there something else about the way he did? If you can't explain it, at least tell us that it's instinct/vibes and not leave us guessing.

You couldn't have known I was phoneposting, so I'll ignore that but I dislike how you pass off my most recent posts as generalizations. They're not. Short and sweet is what they are. You could do worse than read them.

I'll get to geraintm in a bit.

Also can you answer my question about Baezu in that game you stated with her? You never clarified what you were talking about.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32198

The power of RVS tells.

Last time: soft accusations help no-one.

If you think Xayzeck is scum...

Please tell me what this post means.

geraint said our reads were the opposite. Xayzeck is a strong Town read, so I asked geraint what his read of Xay was.

If I get night killed, follow that and you'll win. No ducking out of it.

Xcept you aren't

What are you implying here?

When you said our scumblocs and townblocs were opposite, I presumed you meant everything.

Apart from the hammer, why do you think pisskop? Articulate 3 bullet points.

Explain to me the concept of a scumbloc please?

It's a bloc (block) of people in the game who I am reading as scum.

IV, can we get.some lists?

Did I not already tell you who I thought was scum?

But I'll do it again because that list has revised:

Town: geraint, pisskop, Rach
Null: Xay, TSO
Scum: OWC

In that order exactly.

Remind me why you think geraint is Town.

[geraintm]

Quick reply to 403.

Rach is second on my list.
Xay is last.

Off to see Father Christmas today, will be back in about 12 hours

[T S O]

Well I lost a big post on my reads.

Fuck it I'll re-do it.

[ObsessedWithCats]

I'll be without internet for the majority of tomorrow but after that with the site seemingly being back to normal (having said that this is my second attempt at the post) I should be able to post more.

I can vaguely see why 1 on 1 off might often apply to D1 mislynches (with my usual complaint that if that's the accepted norm scum might benefit from intentionally deviating from it) but the lynching of an unclaimed and IMO not particularly scummy looking (relatively speaking) cop with plenty of time to go is hardly a typical lynch.

Point taken on pisskop's 'townslip' - I myself have to actively refrain from referring to the werewolves as 'scum' (it's just not a word we use) or 'mafia' over on the other site I play on, even in games where my role PM tells me I'm a werewolf.

My read on Xayzeck is mostly from D1 - as a very new player he was asking the right kinds of questions and I didn't notice anything suspicious, so either all of that was genuine or he picked up the game really really fast and is a very good actor. I feel the later's probably very rare so it was

reasonably

safe to assume he was being honest.

IV I always sound kind of stiff and over-logical. My first post was my try at scumhunting, maybe I was a bit too aggressive about it but it served it's purpose as far as getting my questions answered to understand whether posts I thought problematic actually were or not. Yes I'm getting a bit miffed at your read on me; I can't understand where it's coming from. Though I recognise you're doing better than me in that you've got a decisive scumread at all.

Pisskop you said part of your read on me relates to the nightkill - how exactly?

TSO is looking more and more town with every post, though beyond the apparent dedication to analysing every aspect of everything I couldn't say why beyond gut.

[pisskop]

bday nod to rach. happy 48th.

[innocentvillager]

Yes I'm getting a bit miffed at your read on me; I can't understand where it's coming from.

Sure same here but I don't go around asking anyone that scumreads me first thing to tell me why when they mention it like once and they don't even back it up.

Also how do you STILL not understand my read? Just because you can make up a counter to every single one of my points against you doesn't mean you "don't understand" why I scumread you. You should at least "understand" where I'm getting my ideas from, even if you think it's flawed.

It's pretty common. So I can't understand where your theory of 1/1 is coming from and I strongly disagree with it.

This is where the disconnect is. Rach and I have empirically seen a lot more 1 on 1 off than not, while you, thinking that you would do something very different, use a rationale explanation to counter this. Yes, the 1v1 thing has polarized this game to an extent, but I think this is an important discussion (not necessarily implying you don't think it is).

but I dislike how you pass off my most recent posts as generalizations. They're not. Short and sweet is what they are.

Like I said, short and vague (not sweet). I wouldn't care if it was just a normal post because I obviously do that too, but that was literally your "catch-up" post that you promised a post earlier. Which didn't fulfill the whole purpose of a catch-up. On the other hand, your recent posts are much more content-based and would suffice as catch-up posts.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32198

The power of RVS tells.

All I see is you "catching" Baezu from a first-post scumslip that was barely a scum slip at all. Which has nothing to do with my opinion that Xay plays like newbscum-Baezu did in 1376 specifically, which was my original point. Can you provide a counter to my original point or not? If not idc.

Point taken on pisskop's 'townslip' - I myself have to actively refrain from referring to the werewolves as 'scum' (it's just not a word we use) or 'mafia' over on the other site I play on, even in games where my role PM tells me I'm a werewolf.

THANK YOU, YOU UNDERSTAND AND I'M NOT GOING CRAZY

@TSO I'm really not sure what you're talking about when you're countering my point; I was talking about habit. Obviously he has a habit of calling scum/mafia wolves. Imagine if you went to another site that used wolves; even if you got a "Wolf" PM, that wouldn't stop you from automatically typing "scum" or "mafia".

I think I was going to say other stuff but I forgot so I'll just post this for now

[T S O]

It's pretty common. So I can't understand where your theory of 1/1 is coming from and I strongly disagree with it.

This is where the disconnect is. Rach and I have empirically seen a lot more 1 on 1 off than not, while you, thinking that you would do something very different, use a rationale explanation to counter this. Yes, the 1v1 thing has polarized this game to an extent, but I think this is an important discussion (not necessarily implying you don't think it is).

I haven't seen you in many games recently at all, while I'm pretty damn active. I've played over 15 Newbies and I cannot remember seeing 1/1 often. Regardless of what

I do as scum

, I commonly see

a) awkward bussing
b) buddying of partner with weak reasoning ("he seems town looking", for example)
c) a complete lack of interaction

Hyperbuddying by one partner to another is a terrible tactic in Newbie games which always gets a scum team caught, so is never seen.

Can you explain what makes 1v1 more likely in this game than the above? I want you to go through each one, since I'm pretty adamant on this.

but I dislike how you pass off my most recent posts as generalizations. They're not. Short and sweet is what they are.

Like I said, short and vague (not sweet). I wouldn't care if it was just a normal post because I obviously do that too, but that was literally your "catch-up" post that you promised a post earlier. Which didn't fulfill the whole purpose of a catch-up. On the other hand, your recent posts are much more content-based and would suffice as catch-up posts.

Let's take a look back in time.

If I get night killed, follow that and you'll win. No ducking out of it.

This is a guide to win the game.

When you said our scumblocs and townblocs were opposite, I presumed you meant everything.

Apart from the hammer, why do you think pisskop? Articulate 3 bullet points.

This is me sorting out an incorrect scumread.

I hardly think they're weak posts.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32198

The power of RVS tells.

All I see is you "catching" Baezu from a first-post scumslip that was barely a scum slip at all. Which has nothing to do with my opinion that Xay plays like newbscum-Baezu did in 1376 specifically, which was my original point. Can you provide a counter to my original point or not? If not idc.

Remind me what we were talking about again? I've completely forgotten.

Point taken on pisskop's 'townslip' - I myself have to actively refrain from referring to the werewolves as 'scum' (it's just not a word we use) or 'mafia' over on the other site I play on, even in games where my role PM tells me I'm a werewolf.

THANK YOU, YOU UNDERSTAND AND I'M NOT GOING CRAZY

@TSO I'm really not sure what you're talking about when you're countering my point; I was talking about habit. Obviously he has a habit of calling scum/mafia wolves. Imagine if you went to another site that used wolves; even if you got a "Wolf" PM, that wouldn't stop you from automatically typing "scum" or "mafia".

I think I was going to say other stuff but I forgot so I'll just post this for now

That's where we disagree - being inexperienced on this site, I think pisskop would remember,

If you got a role PM calling you "Town Vanilla-Flavoured Blueberry-Topped Villager" would you call yourself a Vanilla?

Right that's a terrible example, but take what I'm trying to explain out of it.

[innocentvillager]

a) awkward bussing
b) buddying of partner with weak reasoning ("he seems town looking", for example)
c) a complete lack of interaction

I see all of these too, but none of this has ANYTHING to do with 1 scum on 1 scum off on a townie wagon. I don't see where you're going with this. Also I've played more than 15 newbies.

I can't explain why this game specifically is, I'm just saying in general from the games I've played when a townie is lynched d1 scum are usually 1 off 1 on, and I think that is likely this case here. Nothing else. I'm not discounting other possibilities which I think Rach is doing incorrectly.

Also just because you haven't seen me in games doesn't mean I'm not active.

I'm not saying you're wrong with this empirics thing, obviously each of our sample sizes are too small to determine whether it is "1-on 1-off" or not, but just saying.

Let's take a look back in time.

You misunderstand me. I like some of your short posts, don't get me wrong. It was that one post after you said "I'll catch up in my next post" or whatever, that was a really sad comeback post. Nevertheless I don't think it's a big tell so I'm not too concerned.

Remind me what we were talking about again? I've completely forgotten.

BTW it seems like in general people townread Xay, anyone wanna fill me in on that? I don't see newbtown from his ISO. Easily could see newbscum. In fact kinda reminds me of Baezu from Newbie 1376 if anyone cares to read that.

This was my initial introduction of this issue -- that Xay, who everyone saw as newbtown, plays similarily (in my opinion) to Baezu in specifically 1376 who flipped newbscum.

IV, try Baezu-scum in Newbie 1443.

Nailed.

You said this, which I don't think countered my original point. Then there was back and forth confusion posts, etc.

That's where we disagree - being inexperienced on this site, I think pisskop would remember,

If you got a role PM calling you "Town Vanilla-Flavoured Blueberry-Topped Villager" would you call yourself a Vanilla?

Right that's a terrible example, but take what I'm trying to explain out of it.

I still think you're ignoring the one thing here: habit. I'll try to answer your question first, then I want you to answer my previous question (as well as respond to my response), otherwise we're just going to stubbornly throw questions back and forth at each other with a shitton of bias and not get anywhere.

I'm not sure what you're implying here, but I'd instinctively call myself whatever I'm used to calling that alignment. So no. I wouldn't call myself a "Vanilla", especially if I'm not used to calling myself one. Personally I'm used to calling myself VT (specifically VT, not Vanilla or Vanilla Townie) because that's what I'm used to, regardless of what my role says. Also "Vanilla" is only part of the whole thing so I really don't get what you're saying? I really think that "wolf" is slip of habit, no matter how you think about it.

[innocentvillager]

I'm not saying you're wrong with this empirics thing, obviously each of our sample sizes are too small to determine whether it is "1-on 1-off" or not,

but just saying

.

Sorry, I couldn't think of how to end that sentence at the time, but I meant: so we can each reference our own experiences and have our own opinions from those experiences, without trying to shove them down everyone's throat. I just think it's likely; you can't prove me wrong, and I'm not trying to prove you wrong. Our opinions are what they are.

[T S O]

Okay, I don't think I have a counter for your point on Xay, but I still think he's Town.

Also I can now see where you're coming from with your habit approach. I still think I'm right, but I definitely get where you're coming from.

...dammit now I have to re-analyse pisskop to be sure I'm not missing something

PEdit: Understood.

[havingfitz]

No change in votes.

Xayzeck has been prodded a second time.

If anyone needs v/LAs over the holidays please do so rather than risk replacement.

[innocentvillager]

Bleh people should post