Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

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Post Post #4394 (isolation #600) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:19 pm

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Why were we even talking.
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Post Post #4397 (isolation #601) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:20 pm

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Okay but why aren't you death tunneling them?
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Post Post #4400 (isolation #602) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:23 pm

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It's not a surface glance.
They very likely did a closed loop murder.
It has its own name and everything.

Shit I am so slow.
It's so sad how long it took me to put this all together.

Oh my god.
Well at least if Kaguya is scum I'm cleared since there's basically no way I'd do this whole song and dance.

Well, maybe not. Eh.
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Post Post #4401 (isolation #603) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:25 pm

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In post 4399, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4397, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Okay but why aren't you death tunneling them?
Because for the scenario you're talking about to have happened I'd have need to put in significant work (Get Dai to target Clownpiece, figure out a cover story for why Dai decided to target Clownpiece) for negative scum gain (Bring the game to Odds, lose the ability to kill Aya before ELO)
I'm town tho, so them checking me does not result in you getting ahead by shooting Koishi or Aya and those two were the more obvious targets.
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Post Post #4402 (isolation #604) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:27 pm

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Like, to be clear you're pretty much dead anyway because if I die, you're dying immediately after.
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Post Post #4405 (isolation #605) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:32 pm

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1. Initial thought is good point and defense.
2. Second thought things go wrong, things don't work out. Cover your angles. What if clown piece is lying about what they're going to do? What if Dai is? What if the kill doesn't go through?
3. That's the beauty of the closed loop tho, your pattern of activity matches exactly that during the beginning of the day phase. You pretty much thought you got away with it.
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Post Post #4407 (isolation #606) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:35 pm

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In post 4405, Yuuka Kazami wrote: 1. Initial thought is good point and defense.
2. Second thought things go wrong, things don't work out. Cover your angles. What if clown piece is lying about what they're going to do? What if Dai is? What if the kill doesn't go through?
3. That's the beauty of the closed loop tho, your pattern of activity matches exactly that during the beginning of the day phase. You pretty much thought you got away with it.
What if they're in another hood? Etc.
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Post Post #4412 (isolation #607) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:47 pm

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1. Neighborhoods is the correct line of thought, there was no guarantee that clown did not have the ear of someone else.

It's paranoia to think in a game of deception that people might not be forthright with their ability or exact situation, making them more vulnerable to, pretty much what exactly just happened with players that are uncleared to each other?
Is it?

2. You were pretty clearly about to do *something* What that is and the narrative behind it is more work that I'd be glad to keep pestering about, you do seem sort of tired of me though.
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Post Post #4413 (isolation #608) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:50 pm

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In post 4410, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4408, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I was pretty clearly about to claim, why do you think I brought up PGO and then immediately shut up once I figured out what Marisa was talking about. Why do you think I asked for Marisa/Reisen to claim the passive disable
Actually, why do you think I didn't comment AT ALL about who Clownpiece could have been in a hood with
At the time, I had no idea because I didn't know what clown did or could do. You have a mystery on your hands as to what happened with Dai that makes it ambiguous about whether they're dead or not.
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Post Post #4415 (isolation #609) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:54 pm

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In post 4409, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4407, Yuuka Kazami wrote: What if they're in another hood? Etc.
Ah yes, a Neighborizer that targeted Clownpiece when exactly?
This is really disingenuous given there are two neighborhoods that came into the first day and you have a mafia that was pretty much informed there would be multiple neighborhoods and probably some town with the ability to close them out, unless specifically, Larvae was in them.
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Post Post #4419 (isolation #610) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:59 pm

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In post 4414, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4412, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Neighborhoods is the correct line of thought, there was no guarantee that clown did not have the ear of someone else.
This would be even more reason not to kill Clown
It's paranoia to think in a game of deception that people might not be forthright with their ability or exact situation, making them more vulnerable to, pretty much what exactly just happened with players that are uncleared to each other?
Is it?
Yep, the person claiming non-consec commuter who commuted n1 telling me to have Dai target them and also talking about who to cop and telling me to have Dai ready to fake a cop check is actually doing none of those things.
It is extremely hard to swallow the idea of 3 people, none of whom are confirmed to each other fully claiming all of their abilities truthfully given none of us in this game haven't been burned after trusting scum before.

Aside that sounds like an argument of complexity: If the argument is circuitous and complicated, it must be true because why make a complicated lie when a simple lie will do?

There are lies of omission, lies of convenience, blahblahblah I don't need to lecture about it. You know these things.
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Post Post #4420 (isolation #611) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 1:00 pm

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In post 4416, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town
Not to smarm, but I thought I was a PGO scum who smells blood in the water and is taking the opportunity presented to them.
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Post Post #4422 (isolation #612) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 1:02 pm

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In post 4416, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town
In post 4417, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Yuuka: what specifically do I gain from having Dai suicide into Clownpiece as maf?
In post 4418, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: and I mean better than keeping the game on Evens and killing both Aya and Koishi by ELO
I need to take a mafia break. I'll keep thinking on it.
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Post Post #4424 (isolation #613) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:23 pm

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In post 4417, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Yuuka: what specifically do I gain from having Dai suicide into Clownpiece as maf?
Did you suggest that Dai do this or did clown piece? I remember it being clownpiece.
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Post Post #4425 (isolation #614) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:24 pm

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In post 4416, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: You're tunneling on the idea that I'm scum for my D3 play while completely ignoring that my N2 play makes negative sense as scum and perfect sense as town
What about your day 2 play makes negative sense as scum?
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Post Post #4426 (isolation #615) » Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:43 pm

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I dislike me. But it is worthwhile to note that Kaguya really didn't need to entertain me this long, even though, presumably, if I didn't someone else would have. Likewise, they keep asking me questions about why or how could they have done the kill. but I mean, anyone can come up with plausible arguments, so it's a weird angle for scum to keep asking me to dig deeper into it.

A sticking point for me is their point of view on information security. Their credulity in general appears to be on the fritz.

I find it simply ambiguous what their delay in sharing information could be.
It could be as they said, they were watching and waiting and looking and asking some pointed questions to make sense of the situation as town.
Or they realized something went wrong given the message Dai's death was left ambiguous and were trying to come up with something to explain it away. So they were slow to reveal this information because they didn't want to be caught slipping up.
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Post Post #4433 (isolation #616) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:02 am

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They told you on page 2 that they were a cop and then 6 hours before deadline you both made another 50ish posts?

Oh 6 hours after the flip happened.
Not before the flip.

I’m confused how them claiming early makes it more believable. This would make it less likely for the excuse that you didn’t have time to communicate what they asked if there was a third listener.

I am processing the rest of your town case.
Going out to breakfast with friends. So I look forward to somebody else piping in.
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Post Post #4434 (isolation #617) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:07 am

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But not Koishi.
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Post Post #4439 (isolation #618) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:20 am

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Narrator: nobody else piped in.
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Post Post #4441 (isolation #619) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:53 am

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In post 4435, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I think this is the kind of gamestate where people get caught up in the latest events while spec chat goes "wow Kaguya's so obvtown I can't believe she's getting run up" so I'd appreciate people taking a step back and looking at the totality of my play instead of just what's in front of them
From my town pov, you basically sat around yesterday and mech spec’d.

And while it was interesting and somewhat unique.
It wasn’t exactly super townie to me.

Though yeah, everyone can be concisely summarized and made to look silly.

I sat around yesterday and wasted my time misreading Sanae and failing at finding reliable associatives from Larvae.
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Post Post #4499 (isolation #620) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:11 pm

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In post 4485, Koishi Komeiji wrote: Is everyone really reading Yuuka as scum that strongly? Am I completely off base in thinking that Yuuka is town?
Nah, you’re correct. But you can’t know that until later unfortunately.
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Post Post #4500 (isolation #621) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:18 pm

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I’m not going to lay it all out on the table but I will pull back the curtain somewhat and say I wanna know what daiyousei’s deal is. I’m just not sure it’s actually a good idea to force the issue.
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Post Post #4501 (isolation #622) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:21 pm

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I also almost want a mass claim.

Reisen is unique in that they haven’t revealed any information about their role except the first part which makes me wonder if they’re just scared to talk about it because, as Koushi says, they’re frozen scum. Albeit, that’s not quite the feeling I get. But they’re a bit too tight with revealing their thinking which makes me thinks they’re insecure because they’re scum.
They haven’t really done much and have implied that they’ve been extra unproductive down the power role avenue. But that’s it.
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Post Post #4505 (isolation #623) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:29 pm

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Huh? Oh no it’s just because I don’t really want to talk about my doubts or insecurities about Kaguya scum or whether Kagerou claimed scum to tenshi because that would be embarrassing or go off on a tangent about how I’m not scum with kagerou.
I’m also not scum, but also, I dunno why the kagerou Yuuka pairing is a thing.

I don’t want to ask aya directly to use their ability to sift through kaguya’s neighborhoods.

I also kind of don’t believe they have that ability.
But I also Don’t care because they’re probably town.

It’s just I have all the cards. I just can’t put them together in any semblance of order.

Like I’ve been watching and waiting to see what Dai does about their actions and whether it makes sense from an ego perspective for them to keep pushing Kaguya or not as a justification for them reviving basically there’s a temptation to try to make your actions meaningful or productive.

But because I just said it now they’re an electron and I dunno what they’ll do.

It’s like how I spoke about Kaguya subduing their emotions and then they start talking about mentioning that they’re mad before going into the argument that they wouldn’t try to kill 2 town’s people because it doesn’t help them.
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Post Post #4506 (isolation #624) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:40 pm

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It's small beans stuff,
but I am largely frustrated in this regard because of inactivity.


I also don't have a solid list of people I want to kill, it's just a general weakness of my "I'm only confident that you're scum if you're dead and flipped red" mindset.

I could talk about how Kagerou said they'd come back and then have not, even use that to try and pressure them with an artificial scum read but I feel it's in poor taste.
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Post Post #4507 (isolation #625) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:41 pm

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If you want me to full claim, I'm happy to, albeit I'm not sure if you want that, or want me to go first there.
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Post Post #4510 (isolation #626) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:43 pm

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VOTE: Kagerou
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Post Post #4511 (isolation #627) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:44 pm

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In post 4508, Koishi Komeiji wrote:
In post 4506, Yuuka Kazami wrote:but I am largely frustrated in this regard because of inactivity.
This is what I'm trying to fix. We need to hold lurking accountable. Post and be heard, or die.
This isn't something I do on day 3. I only really activity whip on day 1 because I can afford to.
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Post Post #4517 (isolation #628) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:50 pm

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Well I’m here to full claim whenever.
It’s not going to be revelatory though.
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Post Post #4519 (isolation #629) » Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:01 pm

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Yeah, I was just thinking that but uh.
Do I seem like I’m being dragged down by Reisen here?
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Post Post #4549 (isolation #630) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:20 am

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In post 4533, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4528, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: Yeah ok sorry Kaguya but i really don't get your proof by contradiction
It's simple: do you think stopping a scum kill on Aya/Koishi while in a hood with Clown would get me in the towncore? If yes then the numbers work out so that one person in the towncore survives til 3p ELO/4p MELO regardless of the results of Clownpiece's cop check
Simple?
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Post Post #4550 (isolation #631) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:25 am

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Aya-Koishi.

I can’t work out a list below that, that isn’t made up. Reads are in constant flux. Based on the moon, my mood, who is currently scum reading me, etc etc.
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Post Post #4551 (isolation #632) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:29 am

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In post 4520, Daiyousei wrote: UNVOTE: Kaguya Houraisan

I've caught up and don't like this anymore. I can tell my strongest argument for it at this point is that I want it to be true really badly.
In post 4469, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Daiyousei -
Daiyousei
  • [Spellcard] Come back to life after dying
  • [Spellcard] Unknown
  • [Active/Night] Redirect all actions targeting her to her target, if her target dies she dies
  • [Active/Day] Unknown, used it to check Yuuka/Aya/Reisen/Koishi d1
  • Misty Lake Resident [Passive] In a Hood with Kaguya Houraisan
Since the details of what's passive and active and spellcards are important, I'll rearrange this a bit:

Daiyousei -
Daiyousei
  • [Spellcard] Unknown, used it to check
    Yuuka/Reisen/Koishi
    d1 [Fairy Ed. Note: Despite mentioning her in listing the various obfuscation claims, I never actually checked Aya, because her claim was not something I could check)
  • [Spellcard] Unknown
  • [Active/Night] Redirect all actions targeting her to her target, if her target dies she dies
  • [Passive] Come back to life after dying
  • Misty Lake Resident [Passive] In a Hood with Kaguya Houraisan
Despite bed calling me over an hour ago, I'll do a Misty Lake summary next.
You see, now I don’t know if it’s what I said or it’s because they genuinely feel that way. I also don’t know if they gave up early, and just aren’t willing to put in the effort. I also don’t know what the consequences of their revive is, if they’d revive is scum, if they’re even actually dead or this is a game etc etc.

I actually do think they probably resolve themselves tomorrow in my mind at least, but it’s hard to know. It’s just a guess.
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Post Post #4552 (isolation #633) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:33 am

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Question to Kaguya,
Why did you ask Clown to check you if you’re invisible to active investigatives?
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Post Post #4556 (isolation #634) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:37 am

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Remind me what gambit Marisa did that makes you think they’re town again Kage?
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Post Post #4557 (isolation #635) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:38 am

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In post 4554, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I'm invisible to Action investigatives, not Active investigatives
My brain
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Post Post #4560 (isolation #636) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:41 am

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In post 4558, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: The Fruit thing with Larva
:3

I just dunno what to say to that. It’s such a low risk thing to claim. It’s not a zero risk thing to claim, but it’s a pretty low stakes gambit.
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Post Post #4561 (isolation #637) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:48 am

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In post 4554, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I'm invisible to Action investigatives, not Active investigatives
So, you’re a ninja.
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Post Post #4564 (isolation #638) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:54 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

An alternate town narrative is that Larvae had some alibi cooking in the books. Along with suspicion there.

I also think based on Marisa’s positioning at the end of day 1 that I’d be pretty curious what their role was given how they approached the game.
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Post Post #4565 (isolation #639) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:55 am

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If that’s the correct one it makes the Aya as scum redirect less likely, but it’s already so unlikely. That it’s overkill. :3
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Post Post #4566 (isolation #640) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:32 am

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I just don’t know. How much I should be reading into the clown piece NK.
There are too many scenarios from a closed loop murder where someone knew pretty much all there was to know about the situation to scum was like “eh, they’re probably a one shot and will die if we try to kill them”

I forgot if clown said they could commute in thread or not.
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Post Post #4568 (isolation #641) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:44 am

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You see it totally could have been me and my partner and I are both checked out and we just shot clown piece and ignored you and Aya.

Uh.
Because.
Hmm.

Yeah I don’t know.
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Post Post #4569 (isolation #642) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:45 am

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Commute or not, not a good idea unless you know as much as Kaguya and Aya knows.

But empirical mind block on Aya that will never change. They win if they’re scum. I’m cool with it.
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Post Post #4571 (isolation #643) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:07 am

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Yeah, I didn’t notice that tho.
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Post Post #4572 (isolation #644) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:09 am

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I also had no reason to say who I visited N1 if I were scum. I’ve been extra forth coming with information precisely to avoid that kind of misunderstanding.
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Post Post #4573 (isolation #645) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:13 am

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In post 4571, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Yeah, I didn’t notice that tho.
I spent a significant amount of time that day with a dead tenshi *not*noticing that.
You also helped me figure out the difference between actives and spell cards this day phase.

So now I’ve just been playing dumb the whole game?
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Post Post #4574 (isolation #646) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:14 am

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I usually try to appear smarter than I am when I’m scum.
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Post Post #4575 (isolation #647) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:16 am

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I think I even mentioned this day phase that I only realized what happened. 4323 is me putting the pieces together about what happened the previous day phase.
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Post Post #4576 (isolation #648) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:17 am

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The only missing piece of the puzzle is Sanae, which we know scum blocked because nobody claimed it.

Uh.
I think.
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Post Post #4577 (isolation #649) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:19 am

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Which means part of their plan yesterday was explicitly to kill Sanae during the day.
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Post Post #4579 (isolation #650) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:25 am

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Uh. They might also know what that’s going to look like tomorrow and not do that.
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Post Post #4580 (isolation #651) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:27 am

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I would look for weird stuff, but not necessarily lazy stuff. I actually thought Dai’s opinion was less suspicious because they wouldn’t want to discredit themselves by calling Sanae obvious scum only to immediately be proven wrong.
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Post Post #4582 (isolation #652) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:35 am

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Then again, I’ve been burned by that before.
But I think that, that guy was kind of unique.

I’m still not actually sure if Dai died. But I find the conspiracy theory with Dai and Kaguya both being scum to be a bit.

Well it would be a bit much.
It would essentially be:
1. they got a neighborhood even though they already have one. By being scum.
2. Clown tells Kaguya.
3. Kaguya tells Dai to use their ability to exit the game for a day which is loud. Then come back out. Lie about that they died for a “price” and hope nobody calls them out for it.
4. ???????bring loads of attention on themselves for a relatively weak and probably temporary bump in standing.
5. Probably not.
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Post Post #4583 (isolation #653) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:40 am

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This does solve for Kaguya’s argument but it’s so dumb that I’m pretty sure I’d earn an F grade for turning it in.
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Post Post #4584 (isolation #654) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:53 am

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Well either that, the scum team has another role finder, one of you is scum, Yukari doesn’t need to come up with unique roles for everyone okay!?

Unlikely that they came up with a nuanced role passive like that themselves. That doesn’t really provide a tangible benefit to claim.

That I can see. But I mean, that’s not saying much.
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Post Post #4586 (isolation #655) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 5:57 am

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Hey, respond to my response Kaguya.
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Post Post #4588 (isolation #656) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:00 am

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I think the most pertinent part is the part where you’re assuming I’m more aware of the mechanics and what’s going on than is demonstrably true in thread based on my posts and time stamps.
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Post Post #4592 (isolation #657) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:22 am

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In post 4590, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I feel like the Yuuka/Marisa/Reisen sort's gonna be the hardest part of this game

Yuuka what do you think about killing Kagerou here?
I lack enthusiasm for any lim since none of them are slam dunks. This isn’t me obfuscating associatives it’s just how I actually feel.
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Post Post #4593 (isolation #658) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:23 am

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Kaguya, why as scum would I say any of these things.
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Post Post #4594 (isolation #659) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:30 am

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I could just lie about tenshi visiting me.
And say nothing about my failed action.

Now, I have total flexibility and deniability.
For whatever scenario I need.
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Post Post #4599 (isolation #660) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:50 am

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1. You can be scum for clown piece kill.
2. Dai can be scum for clown piece kill and didn’t actually die.
3. I can be scum because maybe I’m just honest to a fault or something. It’s poor play, but whatever.
4. Reisen is in a neighborhood? They can be scum it’s something to note.
5. Marisa can lie about the Dango.
6. Might as well just say Aya is definitely scum because the mod wouldn’t create the same passive twice given the standards you’re using. *_*
7. Kagerou cannot be scum because they claimed vig.

It’s a pet peave of mine when people create scenarios where each of them is equal when obviously they are very different and you and I know this, which just makes me wonder why you said it at all. But you know, people say things.
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Post Post #4601 (isolation #661) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:55 am

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Okay. So you’re saying that this one point, not my play in composite isn’t enough to make you doubt yourself.

And this is your current best theory, whatever technically fits the best is what you’re going with.
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Post Post #4603 (isolation #662) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 6:57 am

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Rather you’re focused on clown piece kill and how scum knew.

You aren’t interested in why I would claim targets early because, doesn’t matter what matters is that I believe them, they probably did visit clown piece and therefore they would know that clown commuted that day. Rather they would figure it out. Eventually.
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Post Post #4607 (isolation #663) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:06 am

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In post 4605, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: This is also the reason I'm voting Kagerou here instead of any of you
I dunno why that would be the case when you have a mech argument on me and no argument on Kagerou.
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Post Post #4614 (isolation #664) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:15 am

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I’m sorry I suck.

Did you mention that you were in a hood with larvae day 2?
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Post Post #4617 (isolation #665) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:16 am

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In post 4614, Yuuka Kazami wrote: I’m sorry I suck.

Did you mention that you were in a hood with larvae day 2?

Found it. Holy shit, I missed this did anyone even ask you what you two talked about?
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Post Post #4621 (isolation #666) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:22 am

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Sigh
Ah well. This game has been an interesting comedy of errors in some ways and brilliant plays in others so.

It’s on theme at least.
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Post Post #4645 (isolation #667) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:07 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4630, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Okay in that case I need a Yuuka claim with N1 actions and a Reisen claim with n1 actions.
I’m a contagious watcher. This isn’t the word but it’s what it means.
Whoever visits who I watch gets a flower and then the next night they get watched Too They’re informed about the flower but not what it does.

My spell card was wasted. Because clown dodged. Other than that I can self watch non-consecutively.

And when I’m visited a player receives a message that I’m an incident causer.
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Post Post #4649 (isolation #668) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am

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I think the ninjas are in part a counter to my ability. I’m not sure how it interacts with ascetics and now, I never have to ask because it’s gone. Rip.
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Post Post #4651 (isolation #669) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:12 am

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They would totally do that. No joke.
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Post Post #4659 (isolation #670) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:17 am

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In post 4653, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Right but what you said is also weird because I am able to self watch without restriction.
Sure. But I’m not scum
And you’re very unlikely to be scum, so.
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Post Post #4660 (isolation #671) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:18 am

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I think my claim is pretty safe. Comparatively to Kaguyas. Though they had a lot more to juggle.
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Post Post #4662 (isolation #672) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:20 am

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Does Reisen count as a ninja? I never really figured out how aesthetic works beyond that nothing non-faction direct target works on them unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Would they have been seen visiting?
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Post Post #4665 (isolation #673) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:25 am

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Okay so they would have been watched. Their claim was confirmed too, so that helps some. Or something like it anyway.
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Post Post #4667 (isolation #674) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:27 am

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Reisen are you reisen or are you another flavor?
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Post Post #4669 (isolation #675) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:28 am

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Let me get the exact wording. Or rather let me get the exact meaning one sec.
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Post Post #4671 (isolation #676) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:32 am

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The flower is next to the player. The flower blooms if they are visited by another player and then that visitor gets a flower that will also bloom if they are visited. Each flower can only bloom once per player.
I think Reisen, commuter, hider and role blocker for spell cards would make it fail. There are probably some other roles that would mess with it too.
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Post Post #4702 (isolation #677) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:48 am

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In post 4672, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: That seems... really strong? Like solve the game by yourself tier strong

It can be if enough people visit my target.
In exchange it’s pretty insidious sounding so the target is warned. So they know to be extra careful.
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Post Post #4708 (isolation #678) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:52 am

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In post 4706, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Now I kinda really wanna lim Marisa here just off the claim, someone talk me out of it
You should say this thing after you have more information, not before. :< all you do is put your target on guard.
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Post Post #4732 (isolation #679) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:01 am

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In post 4702, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
In post 4672, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: That seems... really strong? Like solve the game by yourself tier strong

It can be if enough people visit my target.
In exchange it’s pretty insidious sounding so the target is warned. So they know to be extra careful.
In addition it pretty much points straight to the flower manipulator. You can choose what type of flower it is but it defaults to a sunflower. Which is in my signature. So yeah, if you’re paying attention it can paralyze the whole game if you’re lucky but I might not even get to share the results.
Given they’ll want to nk me. Or worse, I could have gotten slapped with a third party label and gotten limmed that way.
There’d have been lots of questions.
And a strong man.

Put being. >.> even if successful, I’m not really sure how awesome it would have been. It would’ve been fun though.
Pedit: sure! You can be insane. Or you can trust all that experience you’ve piled up and try to articulate it. But, that would be effort and also
, soft data.
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Post Post #4735 (isolation #680) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:03 am

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In post 4720, Aya Shameimaru wrote:
In post 4718, Koishi Komeiji wrote: My issue here is as other players go up, I'm left staring at my Yuuka read wondering why it's still so town and if I'm just insane.
I am still wondering if I was right about S/T Yuuka Sanae
In my notes PT I wrote that I was caught for the wrong reasons as a joke nobody will ever see.
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Post Post #4776 (isolation #681) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:12 pm

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Dunno.
I don’t expect amateurish play from Marisa.

Reisen as a role blocker makes sense. That’s why I wanna know if their theme is their actual role.
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Post Post #4777 (isolation #682) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:13 pm

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I dunno what to do with Daiyousei.
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Post Post #4778 (isolation #683) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:17 pm

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Larvae was drawing associatives. Notice they threw soft ball questions at Sanae too and how he took pains to cover their tracks.

I know it was my response that bugged you, but see it from my perspective. I think they’re town, I’m not interested in showing off or overcomplicating my reads or feelings to them.
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Post Post #4780 (isolation #684) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:17 pm

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*I think Larvae is town.
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Post Post #4781 (isolation #685) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:21 pm

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I just don’t know if this kind of closed offness is townie.

There are some players that take a very hard line there, where it’s almost a giveaway that they’re town if they say no in this kind of situation. But I don’t really think it’s that cohort that’s hanging out here.

All you guys can tell is that I did my homework and was clearly ready to claim, I don’t want to piss you off, yes I’m community minded and think others should solve along with me so I’m usually pretty quick to share (even though I don’t *really listen* I attempt to and process their ideas) but you guys don’t know that.

I think conventionally I’m the scummier one.
Albeit, there’s at least a line from point A to point B. In terms of inputs and outcomes. But not a great one. Or one that you can’t falsify.
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Post Post #4782 (isolation #686) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:22 pm

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Yes, I am casing myself.
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Post Post #4783 (isolation #687) » Tue Apr 02, 2024 2:28 pm

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Does an ascetic role blocker make sense.
It sounds nice and powerful.
But not broken.
Albeit I think their ascetic fits in decently with two watchers one with a contagion. Depending on the game state it can be wasted, but only a really bad town player wouldn’t claim ascetic out the gate and only a really bad scum player would stay silent with the number of roles flying around. Who would immediately find it suspicious if they didn’t claim it and they wasted their action.
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Post Post #4788 (isolation #688) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:37 am

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Did marisa claim flavor?
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Post Post #4790 (isolation #689) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:42 am

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So they’re flandre?
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Post Post #4792 (isolation #690) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:44 am

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Flandre’s not much of a role blocker.
Oh, I don’t know why I thought remilia was taken.
I guess they could behave as a role blocker in a classical vampire sense.

But I don’t really. Hmm. I’m not super familiar with remilia’s powers.
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Post Post #4793 (isolation #691) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:45 am

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To google!
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Post Post #4794 (isolation #692) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:46 am

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Yeah okay, remilia is probably drowning in abilities like Sanae was.
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Post Post #4796 (isolation #693) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:49 am

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I genuinely don’t think Flandre has a role block.

I want reisen and Marisa to flavor claim.
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Post Post #4799 (isolation #694) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:01 am

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Oh.

You have a point.
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Post Post #4800 (isolation #695) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:55 am

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Kaguya how would you feel about shooting your shot here and then not hating me forever if I try to kill you next day phase if you’re wrong again?
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Post Post #4807 (isolation #696) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:14 am

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Yes, I think there’s a chance they’re both town.
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Post Post #4810 (isolation #697) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:17 am

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Walk me through why Kagerou+Kaguya can’t be a team.

I hate team hunting. It never works out for me.
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Post Post #4811 (isolation #698) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:18 am

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They’ve had like a month to fake claim and you’ve even helpfully laid out a guide for how to navigate all this confusion.

I don’t think a lack of a claim here is as scummy as you’re making it out to be. Especially because I don’t know. What their abilities are.
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Post Post #4812 (isolation #699) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:19 am

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In post 4809, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 4807, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Yes, I think there’s a chance they’re both town.
See, even Yuuka agrees with your Yuuka/Kagerou solve, Kaguya.
*pokes*
Are you a lame duck?
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Post Post #4814 (isolation #700) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:24 am

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I genuinely don’t know if I buy that given you revived and pointed the finger at Kaguya fairly hard.
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Post Post #4815 (isolation #701) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:24 am

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Are you a lame duck or do I have to convince you you’re read of me is wrong Dai.
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Post Post #4816 (isolation #702) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:25 am

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*your.

*shudder* I’ve made the most grevious of sins
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Post Post #4818 (isolation #703) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:28 am

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I’m not sure how much FF would be piping in. I’m not familiar with the mod dynamic between the two.
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Post Post #4819 (isolation #704) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:29 am

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Do you have reasoning or general experience with the pair in terms of decision making on game design?
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Post Post #4821 (isolation #705) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:30 am

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It’s funny how if I had just read the first two lines first I could have saved myself time.
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Post Post #4825 (isolation #706) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:34 am

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I’m outright and-I apologize if it is a genuine slip -allergic to those kinds of “derp I didn’t format it right!” Let’s kill them! Arguments

Not to mention they could have just said or come up with something to explain it away instead they just said that’s how it is. It’s not like the roles themselves are easy to interpret or put together.

At the same time Marisa is kind of the middle of that and so my positioning here isn’t the greatest thing to talk about. Because they could still slip up further.

But I do want to be clear.

It’s not like most of my watching and waiting has paid off anyway.
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Post Post #4827 (isolation #707) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:35 am

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For example: “oh silly me, actually it *was* formatted like that, sorry!” -Marisa.
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Post Post #4829 (isolation #708) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:38 am

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I do not, sorry.
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Post Post #4830 (isolation #709) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:41 am

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There is a reality where it’s amateur hour and Reisen and Marisa are both severe procrastinators. Slightly demotivated by deep wolf death.
Had some sort of ability to interfere with Sanae and figure out that clown piece was vulnerable, or just didn’t think about it.

And are the two least active question marks remaining. Because bad scum are slightly more inactive than the other.

Albeit Kagerou also falls in that pile.

I don’t know how I feel about that brush though.
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Post Post #4831 (isolation #710) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:42 am

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It’s the easiest explanation. But not the best one.
It’s not even the easiest really.

I guess it depends if one of them visited clown N1 or had a day ability. Or maybe just called a bluff I missed.
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Post Post #4832 (isolation #711) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:43 am

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On the other hand, as someone who has made some very very bad night kills, We really don’t always think that hard about them.
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Post Post #4834 (isolation #712) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:47 am

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You’ve done all the homework, everyone’s actions went through except mine and Sanae. Were everyone else’s actions spell cards that day phase?
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Post Post #4836 (isolation #713) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:49 am

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It seems doubtful that everyone else’s actions went through that day phase because of some unique characteristics they all had plus only spell card usage.
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Post Post #4837 (isolation #714) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:51 am

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I think Tenshi just didn’t use their ability and correctly identified that using that ability day 1 is anti-town.
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Post Post #4841 (isolation #715) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:14 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4833, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4831, Yuuka Kazami wrote: It’s the easiest explanation. But not the best one.
It’s not even the easiest really.

I guess it depends if one of them visited clown N1 or had a day ability. Or maybe just called a bluff I missed.
If one of them got blocked by Tenshi they'd be able to tell your Spellcard failed cause of the commute instead of Tenshi
One of them did not get blocked by Tenshi,
Fairly sure but not certain. But it sounds like you should be certain given fish thing.
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Post Post #4843 (isolation #716) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:17 am

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No, I was targeted by Tenshi. I mentioned this.
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Post Post #4845 (isolation #717) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:19 am

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I received the buff.
I did not self watch that day, I watched clown.
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Post Post #4847 (isolation #718) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:25 am

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Drizzle.
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Post Post #4850 (isolation #719) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:29 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4848, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4847, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Drizzle.
Dang, self watching twice in the same night is really useful :lol:
Yeah, gif made a joke about it.
It was an option.
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Post Post #4852 (isolation #720) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:30 am

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Yes because they said they wanted to check if their claim was true.
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Post Post #4854 (isolation #721) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:31 am

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Two people claimed to have checked it but I understand it because, well, someone has to and you can’t claim it in thread. That you’re checking there, you could crumb tho.
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Post Post #4856 (isolation #722) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:33 am

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I’m not sure why but I find it less likely that Reisen and Kagerou are scum together.

Even though it doesn’t make logical sense.
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Post Post #4857 (isolation #723) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:33 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4855, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 4854, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Two people claimed to have checked it but I understand it because, well, someone has to and you can’t claim it in thread. That you’re checking there, you could crumb tho.
Who's the 2nd? I only remember Dai checking
Kagerou
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Post Post #4862 (isolation #724) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:35 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4859, Marisa Kirisame wrote:
In post 4772, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 4718, Koishi Komeiji wrote: My issue here is as other players go up, I'm left staring at my Yuuka read wondering why it's still so town and if I'm just insane.
In post 4521, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 4451, Koishi Komeiji wrote: Dai, please come solve with us, I KNOW there's a player in there who really wants to dig into this game and be heard by the herd, I saw it on day one well now's your chance.
While I gather up the hood, I invite you to mull over the middle section of , as a starting point if nothing else.
Not a bad case.
If you’re going to be like that I want you to claim.
:neutral:

I also want your flavor.
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Post Post #4863 (isolation #725) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:35 am

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If you won’t claim ,I want your flavor.
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Post Post #4866 (isolation #726) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:38 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

K, if your goal is to find scum tomorrow through your abilities with a bet on scum today so it’s not air in elo you’re currently heading in the wrong direction.
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Post Post #4870 (isolation #727) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:38 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4865, Marisa Kirisame wrote:
In post 4862, Yuuka Kazami wrote: If you’re going to be like that I want you to claim.
Like what?
I’m a natural omguser.
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Post Post #4874 (isolation #728) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:42 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4859, Marisa Kirisame wrote:
In post 4772, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 4718, Koishi Komeiji wrote: My issue here is as other players go up, I'm left staring at my Yuuka read wondering why it's still so town and if I'm just insane.
In post 4521, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 4451, Koishi Komeiji wrote: Dai, please come solve with us, I KNOW there's a player in there who really wants to dig into this game and be heard by the herd, I saw it on day one well now's your chance.
While I gather up the hood, I invite you to mull over the middle section of , as a starting point if nothing else.
Not a bad case.
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Post Post #4885 (isolation #729) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:55 am

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Death to people that even imply I might be scum. :mad:

Hmph.
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Post Post #4889 (isolation #730) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:59 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4881, Koishi Komeiji wrote:
In post 4880, Koishi Komeiji wrote: Not but really, is this day just coming down to a 1v1 of Marisa v Kaguya?
While Reisen continues to lurk, mind you.

That was not the 1v1 I was envisioning. I’m not even sure there will be a 1v1 given the pool is like 4 people. I’m not even sure we’re reaching a consensus.
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Post Post #4892 (isolation #731) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:01 am

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I’m not trying to make noise.
I just feel bad that we’re heading into elo and I don’t have a solve.
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Post Post #4897 (isolation #732) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:02 am

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In post 4894, Koishi Komeiji wrote: Shut up and get in the green haired cheerleader squad car, Yuuka.

Koishi, Dai, Sanae-shroom, we need you. Larva-shroom can be honorary sorta-kinda with us.
Sure.
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Post Post #4907 (isolation #733) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:08 am

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Reisen is the easiest elimination, that does not mean she’s the right one.
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Post Post #4911 (isolation #734) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:12 am

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That’s raising the bar past the skill level of 99% of mafia players.
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Post Post #4916 (isolation #735) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:18 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

In post 4911, Yuuka Kazami wrote: That’s raising the bar past the skill level of 99% of mafia players.
This is in reference to the idea that you need to have a team solve before pushing someone as scum. That doesn’t even make any sense because most scum hunting works fine just identifying liars or behavioral quirks unique to their alignments rather than associatives.

Not to mention Marisa has not had a wealth of player to player interactions I’m not sure how you’d even figure out if they had a scum partner or not given their approach to this game.
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Post Post #4917 (isolation #736) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:19 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

Flandre does not seem the type to have an ability that would clear somebody. \:
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Post Post #4928 (isolation #737) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:56 am

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I thought Marisa was being vague but that in effect they were implying some ability that could result in a clear.

But that could be anything from a doc/jail keeper to a cop investigation.

It’s only interesting to me in that I wonder if they’ll claim a guilty on me tomorrow, but those are easy to win. Or it least it makes the world very simple.
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Post Post #4937 (isolation #738) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 8:32 am

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Marisa’s off the table then?
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Post Post #4986 (isolation #739) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:32 am

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In post 4938, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Either she provides a result or we murder her, cause anyone who RBs her is gonna show up on me radar.

Which, fyi, brings me to an issue.

Yuuka you are a claimed slot who could have known Clownpiece commuted N1 and someone who I am counter claiming for all that is worth. I just.... I'm struggling not to kill you, especially with my Sanae/Yuuka S/T read still in the back of me head.

I'm gonna try and focus more on reads for a bit, so... talk to me? Break shit down to me from your PoV. What's your solve?

I’ve been brain dumping all over the thread but I can put it all in one spot.

Kagerou: vig out me off them as scum. They red texted that they were scum when pushed by, I think Dai or Tenshi and then didn’t say anything about it. To me, this is a case where I don’t think their thinking feels like scum on a look. For example their observation that Kaguya is using a crowbar to get themselves out of a situation, their general lack of direction or seeming focus. There is a genuine problem with their activity and lack of a stance even if that stance is aggressively uncertain. They did provide a read’s list that was concise and to the point and I’m not sure if that was bad or not. I don’t think them being a vig makes them town. I don’t think a general perspective on the game being similar to mine makes them town. I don’t think I know their alignment and I want to and I need to push them but I haven’t.

Kaguya: they are entirely dedicated to mech spec. This grounds certain aspects that could make it easier to read them. I find how they’re pushing out only slightly townie. I find their familiarity with the mechanics slightly townie but their objective way of playing may or may not be used toward a scum win condition. They were stuck on Sanae’s mech. Now, while they’re not on me exactly, they are also on my mech. Now it’s Marisa and Reisen. I don’t know what their alignment is, it’s difficult to know their general observation can be accurate that these two, having the most hidden could be a sign of scum because I’m a hell of a lot more closed down when I’m scum to the point where it’s pretty much impossible to tell the first thing about my role or what I do. So it’s entirely possible those two are dealing with those things as well albeit, Marisa clearly has their hands on a plan now.

The jet lag thing was not awesome and Kaguya is punishing them for it. And I don’t think that’s wrong, but it is biting at a vulnerable hand. When the opportunity presents itself. Albeit I find their attack on Marisa’s, strange.

Albeit I also find Marisa’s defense strange because they’re arguing numbers and misrepresentations with strawman arguments while trying to paint them as manipulative in their approach when, on the front page, it’s not really. It’s a pretty clear cut pattern break. Noting it is fine,
Killing Marisa for it, I don’t think I agree.

Daiyousei is leaving it ambiguous whether they’re a lame duck or not. I think their play has been fairly original and while I might expect Gif to be this attention grabbing and gambity/schemey they’re the mod so I tend to just think “they’re too crazy to be scum”

Their read of me is really bad for the end game though. Like, I’m not sure they’re the type I can convince. I also think strictly speaking there’s nothing to indicate that they’re dead or that they revived or that they paid a penalty or what that penalty is.

They’ve dodged me asking about it.
Which is a major sign that they may be a non issue but they aren’t giving out like a major reads list: peace everyone. List either. Which makes me wonder if they are sticking around and then it becomes are they really sticking around?

Reissn is hard for me, they’re trivially easy to kill here. But I don’t know if it’s the right thing to do
There is a narrative of someone being left behind by the pace of the game as scum and not knowing what to claim so keeping generally quiet, unlike miller claims acetic claims are not more frequently town. They claimed it right though.

Ah, back to work. I’ll finish up later.
On phone.
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Post Post #4987 (isolation #740) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:46 am

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Notice, there is a lack of a definitive: this is who I want to kill, this is who is more likely scum than not.

I just don't want to break empiricism so I just refuse to go that far out of the box by arguing that Aya is scum and I was right all along. It's just not a thing. It's not even distracting me and I usually tunnel pretty hard.
Which just leaves Kaguya knowing, Dai knowing, and one of Marisa or Reisen knowing through an action.
Koishi does not count. It would be too silly if Larvae tried to vig Koishi as a scum buddy for credit and then it got reflected.
Also, there's less reason to do that in a world with Kagerou. Since it's a harder sell.
Actually the whole thing doesn't work from that angle. If kagerou is scum they won't want to create this bizarre, double vig scenario.
and if they're not scum with them then they now have an argument with a vig on their hands.
One that pretty much claimed out the gate in the first place.
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Post Post #4988 (isolation #741) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:51 am

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So are we going to force Reisen to full claim Koushi.
Did you want me there?

If we're going to do it, I want to accelerate it so we have more time to respond and think about it.
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Post Post #4989 (isolation #742) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:56 am

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I read once that people that claim unprompted are more likely to be town than those that don't, thus the scum team is exactly Dai and Kaguya.
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Post Post #4990 (isolation #743) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:58 am

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Kagerou claimed day 1, and Reisen claimed Ascetic day 1.
Though, I'm not sure how much that counts on the ascetic part.
Probably not very much.

This is a very slight joke. It does tilt me a little though. But Mostly in terms of Kagerou and less on Reisen, but it bothers me.
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Post Post #4991 (isolation #744) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:58 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

Oh, Sorry, I meant Marisa and Kaguya.
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Post Post #4992 (isolation #745) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:59 am

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Those two are totally scum partners doing theater,
I read it in a book once.
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Post Post #4993 (isolation #746) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:02 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

Do town vigs normally shoot day 1.
That thought just occurred to me, but I'm pretty sure they do. Rather the curve probably isn't significant like a significant incline.
I always do it day 2 or 3. Unless the set up forces the issue in some way.
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Post Post #4995 (isolation #747) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:06 am

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I would like the reasoning for the D1 vig, not about why you shot Tenshi, I read that, but just why you felt shooting day 1. Is the right play.
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Post Post #4996 (isolation #748) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:09 am

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I was town reading Tenshi and the feeling was mutual, so it sucked. But like.
It happens, so I didn't feel like I needed to go after Kagerou for it. Rather, it wasn't or didn't feel like a huge red flag, I also dislike the blame game. So I'm allergic to an approach that even whiffs of it.
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Post Post #4997 (isolation #749) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:15 am

Post by Yuuka Kazami »

I think there is an argument for the acceleration of reads in the game. As a reason to shoot Tenshi early.
On the other hand you're more likely to hit town and you have a greater number of protown roles with abilities to influence the game state.

And they weren't a community forwarding shot, like a shot on Sanae or Koushi(whoops!) would have been given it skips a day forward.

It does hit that sweet spot where people don't get up in arms but they were a low key town read for a lot of players, so it's a good shot for scum to make without that push back.

That's more political analysis than alignment analysis, unfortunately.
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Post Post #4998 (isolation #750) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:19 am

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Kagerou has been the most hands off when it comes to suspicion of me.
I don't know what to make of that.
they've kind of been that way for everyone but Kaguya though.
But that leaves one more scum and I don't know if it's strange they don't have an idea of it or not. Given, well.
I obviously don't have an idea of who the scum team is.

I just have suspicions.
Everywhere. all at once. But which ones are more fucking likely than the others to be from scum?
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Post Post #4999 (isolation #751) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:22 am

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I guess Kagerou+ Marisa + Reisen. Has the sort of vague approach to scum that's relatively innocuous.
Kaguya: Is more activity-based activity shot up after Dai came back from the grave. But that's a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Invalid. No. Not a good reason.
But their approach is based in deception and the only reason they're not in the above is because of their intentional quirk to be focused on mechanics. Which forces them to take stances based on those mechanics. Because it's a formula they're using and not approach, but they aren't really turning it off.

I also, don't have much of an actual issue with it, besides that they may be using that approach for evil.
But I don't know.
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Post Post #5000 (isolation #752) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 11:25 am

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Not to mention my activity shot up and my activity is not divorced from my sense of vulnerability, I post a lot more when I'm under a microscope and a lot less when I can afford to watch and wait. So it would be a bit hypocritcal to point at Kaguya and say, "They're more active now, therefore they were active lurking earlier!" It's just not a valid point.
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Post Post #5010 (isolation #753) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:17 pm

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Oh. Okay.
So you’re not going to change your mind then if you’re town.

Good to know.
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Post Post #5011 (isolation #754) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:19 pm

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A lame duck is a political term. It pretty much means that you aren’t capable of exerting much if any influence on the game. Due to circumstances. Such as that the penalty makes it so you can’t vote, or you’re going to go back into the grave after the day ends.
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Post Post #5012 (isolation #755) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:33 pm

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VOTE: Reisen

Eh, it’s simply not my style to stay in the background. Biting my nails and hoping I make it is against my personal feelings.

I’d rather get as much information as I can out of this day phase. If we’re not going to force Marisa to claim I want to force Reisen to claim since I find them probably the most likely to be a role blocker just from thematic stand point.

It sucks, but Marisa, Kagerou and Reisen are background and it’s just not easy to figure out which one (I assume at least one of them is) scum

And if I die, great, I don’t have to panic solve in melo and it’s not my responsibility.

If I don’t I get to play my favorite albeit most stressful part of mafia.
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Post Post #5015 (isolation #756) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:39 pm

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In terms of Dai, if they’re alive tomorrow in some capacity. I’d be sure to check if there is a penalty for balance reasons. I still don’t think a gambit with Kaguya and Dai both is out of the question. It somewhat neatly albeit complexly solves the issues without Kaguya needing to make the game evens. Because Dai just loud warped out of the game, they kill Clown piece and voila now the game is on evens. Only upsides for that team in particular.

But honestly I think Kaguya’s just influencing the type of thinking I’m doing.
I really do think the scum team pro—well okay no.
They really could have just blasted them. It’s just not out of the question. They don’t need to know it’s a lot more nk analysis then I’m used to seeing
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Post Post #5017 (isolation #757) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:45 pm

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I don’t think how Dai approached Kaguya was particularly scummy though.

Even though they had time to.

1. Get the lay of the land. Before coming back.
2. Waited to see what the general sentiment was like before pushing more. It was pressure, but it died pretty fast.
3. Don’t think that Kaguya’s general silence at the beginning of the day phase wouldn’t be a sticking point. If I was in their position I would be a whole lot more fixated on whether it makes actual sense for them to be quiet at first. I would expect them to come back at it a lot.
4. Instead they made one post and pretty much moved on.
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Post Post #5018 (isolation #758) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:45 pm

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In post 5016, Daiyousei wrote: Well, if you're going to get that hung up on it, the price was sacrificing a spell card.
That’s not even a price yo.
That’s like, an ability.
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Post Post #5020 (isolation #759) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:48 pm

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When I used my spell card I also suffered a penalty: using up my spell card
*psyduck*
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Post Post #5021 (isolation #760) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:50 pm

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That doesn’t feel honest. Was it even described as a penalty?

Was it just because the other spell card you could have used would have been beneficial toward finding scum? What was the point of even hiding it if you can no longer use the spell card at all.
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Post Post #5022 (isolation #761) » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:56 pm

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In post 5019, Daiyousei wrote: I don't entirely disagree, but on a functional level, it was the cost of being able to return, and
I wanted to be honest about the mechanics.
I think the worst part is that I believe this.
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Post Post #5035 (isolation #762) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:37 am

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Why am I now your strongest town read of the remaining eliminations you’re willing to entertain?

Why doesn’t it bother you that Dai essentially claimed a penaltyless self resurrection that they claimed had a penalty?
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Post Post #5037 (isolation #763) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:43 am

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In post 5023, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 5021, Yuuka Kazami wrote: That doesn’t feel honest. Was it even described as a penalty?
You'll forgive me for not answering a question that sounds like the only way to meaningfully answer is to quote my role PM.
In post 5021, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Was it just because the other spell card you could have used would have been beneficial toward finding scum? What was the point of even hiding it if you can no longer use the spell card at all.
There's a fair amount I don't want to talk about in response to this until/unless I find myself in 3-way ELO for paranoia-level infosec reasons. It's not you specifically, it's general excessive caution. But I will at least say I didn't go into detail about this until now because I didn't feel like publicizing it when there was no tangible benefit to doing so, while I could let Mafia stew on the mystery for a while by keeping quiet about it instead.
I don’t actually think it would be difficult to paraphrase here and the bar you’re worried about isn’t an issue with some thought and slight effort.

I’ve pretty much never seen someone conscious of verbatim quoting get banned or suspended because they weren’t careful enough. You really don’t have to direct quote almost anything the English language has a large number of variations and replacement words to convey the same meaning.

But you know what’s weird? I still believe you even though I don’t know why I should. I guess it’s because you admitted to it.

Even though *that* doesn’t make sense either because those questions are going to come at you hard and fast tomorrow. And would be worse for you if you claimed then than now.

Weird world
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Post Post #5038 (isolation #764) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:44 am

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In post 5036, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 5035, Yuuka Kazami wrote: they claimed had a penalty?
Where did this happen? I have only ever used the words "price" and "cost". (Yes, there is a difference.)

Also, to be clear, "sacrifice a spell card" means "sacrifice an
unused
spell card".
Thanks for being clear, I got that you sacrificed a different ability though.
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Post Post #5039 (isolation #765) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:50 am

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Then again you could just lie about a different penalty tomorrow.

I guess this is just a bad lie if it is one.

Penalty, sacrifice. Tomato toe-mah-toe.
They’re close enough.
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Post Post #5043 (isolation #766) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:56 am

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It doesn’t make them scum, it’s just that it’s entirely possible they mislead on the circumstances of their revive.

Where did I come to conclusions faster than you?
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Post Post #5044 (isolation #767) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:58 am

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I just find the sacrifice pretty toothless.
So it bothers me and is worth looking into.
For example perhaps it’s a scum counter to Kagerou.

Or the opposite.

Albeit it just sounds like an inbuilt self-balancer for their other ability that can cause them to die.

Well it doesn’t have to be just one thing.
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Post Post #5045 (isolation #768) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:58 am

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In post 5042, Daiyousei wrote:
In post 5039, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Then again you could just lie about a different penalty tomorrow.
If I die and revive again, the price for doing so will have been sacrificing an unused spell card and not anything else. You may hold me to this declaration for the rest of the game.
Thank you.
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Post Post #5046 (isolation #769) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:01 am

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In post 5043, Yuuka Kazami wrote: It doesn’t make them scum, it’s just that it’s entirely possible they mislead on the circumstances of their revive.

Where did I come to conclusions faster than you?
I’ve been playing catch up this day phase and last day phase. It’s almost comical.
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Post Post #5048 (isolation #770) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:03 am

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That’s like, one thing.
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Post Post #5049 (isolation #771) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:03 am

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Just through sheer post count I’m going to hit a town/tone/whatever mind set.

Monkeys computers etc. /:
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Post Post #5050 (isolation #772) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:04 am

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Mine!
Mine!
All mine!
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Post Post #5052 (isolation #773) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:18 am

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You said conclusions, not conclusion.
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Post Post #5054 (isolation #774) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 5:24 am

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In post 5053, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
In post 5052, Yuuka Kazami wrote: You said conclusions, not conclusion.
I used the wrong word then? Like this is just something I noticed incidentally when rereading Marisa, I haven't actually reread your ISO yet
Okay. :?
so basically you reserve the right as you have always had the right to change your read whenever you want.
My scumdar is going to look at flimsy reads. I guess it could be political based on supposition of where my reads are at. It could also be vibes I guess. You're running out of time for that read this day phase though.
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Post Post #5055 (isolation #775) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 5:35 am

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I think of the remaining players still in the pool, Dai is my strongest town read.
I can't bet the game on them though.
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Post Post #5056 (isolation #776) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 5:42 am

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Reasoning remains the same, tonally not scum.
While their role seems a little OP there's a lot of OP here.
I don't think their sacrifice/penalty thing is scummy, if anything it feels townie. It's clumsy, it's somewhat manipulative but it wasn't. Sigh. It isn't manipulative enough? I think.
Their reads have been aggressively wrong the whole game in a way that doesn't, though I already know this isn't good reasoning but I just cannot drop this reasoning, seem like how scum would be aggressively wrong, their approach to scum reads discredits them.
Where scum might feign anger to justify the misread or harp more on their mistakes afterword. I'm also still sitting at too crazy to be scum, albeit I know that the pool was so narrow that gambits/escapes here are a valuable tool, Kaguya in particular has pointed this out when it comes to just claiming a block on doctor and trying to escape the pool.
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Post Post #5057 (isolation #777) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 6:08 am

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Have reisen, Kagerou, and Marisa given reads on Dai?
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Post Post #5058 (isolation #778) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 6:11 am

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The Dai/Kaguya scum team is my favorite conspiracy theory though.

It just explains so much, even though it's complicated and unlikely as shit.
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Post Post #5063 (isolation #779) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:30 am

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Certainly a novel strategy to scum read the two most active players rn.
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Post Post #5064 (isolation #780) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:32 am

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I do agree with the positional on Kaguya FWIW. It's crossed my mind a few times.
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Post Post #5065 (isolation #781) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:32 am

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...Why is Dai on the outside for you?
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Post Post #5067 (isolation #782) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:47 am

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It means they're scum reading and town reading who they think they need to, to win rather than because that's what they think.
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Post Post #5070 (isolation #783) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:53 am

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Political expediency is another way of thinking about it.
I would consider it pretty common. For both alignments.
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Post Post #5071 (isolation #784) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:17 am

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How do you read this game and not end up with an opinion on Dai?

I don't find their post bad, but if they were going to make a funeral post I wished they full claimed so we'd have more to work with.
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Post Post #5072 (isolation #785) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:22 am

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Their trajectory is appreciated, but I think they should have probably full claimed. I really want to get the Reisen mystery correct.
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Post Post #5073 (isolation #786) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:22 am

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Oh, short term memory fail.
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Post Post #5075 (isolation #787) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:53 am

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I’m not really sure that reading Reisen as town does much other than prove them right if they flip town though. It’s a minuscule town read bump, when being ambivalent or hostile gets you a dead town member and arguably zero push back given Reisen’s play z ambivalence especially is a pretty good position to take if you can do it right.

Their Reissn read does not feel natural though.

I’m probably going back to Kagerou and going to be wrong there instead.

VOTE: Kagerou

Please note that positionally it probably makes less sense for me to move my vote to lager out than to keep it on Reisen that announced they are not going to fight back and made a post that isn’t going to blow people’s neutral-scum reads away.

I just am not feeling it.
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Post Post #5076 (isolation #788) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:56 am

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To be clear, I’m voting Kagerou because their play has been subjectively the worst this day phase.

I am not married to it. But I think it has slightly better chances of landing on scum.

On the other hand, resolving Kaguya here would be illuminating and might make it easier to solve the game next phase.
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Post Post #5078 (isolation #789) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:57 am

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As always the likely conf town may just take the wheel at any time and I won’t object unless it’s directly me they want to kill. But it’s in their best interests for me to fight them off.

I dunno if I actually can tho.
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Post Post #5079 (isolation #790) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:58 am

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In post 5077, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I flip town, what's the illumination?
Dai’s town.

Marisa+ Reisen + Kagerou has the scum team.
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Post Post #5081 (isolation #791) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:59 am

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Well, yeah. From your perspective it’s a lot easier than from my perspective isn’t it?
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Post Post #5083 (isolation #792) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:06 am

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In post 5082, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Just skip the hassle and join me on the correct solve
Always a temping proposition when I just really really want things to be simple when it’s staring me in the face. I never know tho.
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Post Post #5084 (isolation #793) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:14 am

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That’s the first step though. Thank you for reaching out your hand, metaphorically.

It’s something to weigh.
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Post Post #5085 (isolation #794) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:18 am

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Is town about to find each other or am I going to get fucked here.

With a scum team that is more active and hard working or one that less active and on the side lines even though they just landed a kill on clown piece which appears to have been a small victory.
And should have provided a bump.
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Post Post #5091 (isolation #795) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:40 am

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I was voting Reisen, their post about not being back by deadline scared me away. Because I've seen posts like that before.

Kagerou's play is just, in my view bad, this and last day phase. It's largely unreadable and he should have been put into a position where he had to give more information a while ago. But he hasn't. Beyond the minimum of revealing what he's been up to at night.
Which, while appreciated just isn't enough. I need more and I needed more yesterday.
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Post Post #5092 (isolation #796) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:44 am

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In post 5090, Marisa Kirisame wrote: Not why are you scumreading Kagerou, but why are you voting someone that's not one of Kaguya/Reisen (or me, if you agree with Kaguya)
Aya said not to and I don't have the context Kaguya has.
I'm fine just interpreting what you results are tomorrow and then trying my best to see if it's bullshit or not.
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Post Post #5093 (isolation #797) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:46 am

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If you feel like doing me a solid, if you could lie about your result on me if you're scum so I have an objective scum read, I'd very much appreciate it. Arguing is lot easier than trying to figure out who the scum are.
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Post Post #5094 (isolation #798) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:54 am

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It also neatly gives me more information about which way I should lean on the Kaguya/Dai
Marisa/Kagerou dichotomy.
If kagerou flips scum I just need to survive to win.

I'd say Reisen was the designated miselim today, but let's be real.
Either Kaguya is scum and in control of the thread and direction or scum doesn't have any control over this thread almost at all.
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Post Post #5096 (isolation #799) » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:59 am

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Conspiracy theory: Dai loud commuted/exited the game, you shot clown piece.
Puzzle solved.
it's just terribly unlikely but it solves the game using your own sort of reasoning so it has a special place in my heart.
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