(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[Psyche]

you gave no sign that you were even going to use that time to think

[HighPrincessErinys]

christ

[Doctor Drew]

christ

I think you were on the verge of actually scum casing me, I am glad that worst and I could wrap this up right here

[HighPrincessErinys]

we might've had a chance if anyone but gypyx ever fucking believed me on pc

[HighPrincessErinys]

all of my games lately just turn into miserable slogs and then into losses its so fun

[Doctor Drew]

we might've had a chance if anyone but gypyx ever fucking believed me on pc

Lol, I literally would have bussed him if he was pushed

[the worst]

I do think gypyx was a bit lost and HPE was like, solving this game in a different way but potentially had a very different rate of finalising a satisfying final solve to what you had. Ausuka had already shown her slot as one which is quite capable of competing with an active gamestate. I think hopefully I'm okay at doing that too. I do think it was pretty hard for town to find each other here.

[Psyche]

ughhh actually the reason i didnt wait for hpe was because i was so sure of my ausuka read and my rejection of a gypyx/pc pair

[Doctor Drew]

ughhh actually the reason i didnt wait for hpe was because i was so sure of my ausuka read and my rejection of a gypyx/pc pair

Just curious if you actually went through my posts forgetting about your town read on Ausuka

[Psyche]

i never forgot the townread. but i revisited it after practically every third post you put out.

[Doctor Drew]

i never forgot the townread. but i revisited it after practically every third post you put out.

I will admit, I was kinda testing the limit on how much you were town locking me lol

[Doctor Drew]

I also kinda hoped I'd wake up and the scumteam would have said

sorry

and resigned

Drew had better townread me my heart is on my sleeve rn

Sorry

, but not really lol

You have seemed towny since your repp in, but I have seen that song and dance before

Psyche

HPE

Worst
Gyp(though you could flip flop these two)

Still feel confident this is it

Snow, do you actually have any real input on your voters? Anything you'd like to share with the class? A claim, perhaps?

And no, I won't claim.

Honey, we're 7 hours to deadline and you're E-1, idk if you have a

choice

on that one.

This one is prettttttttty confident in Snow flipping scum here. As weird and perhaps towntell-y as not claiming and just trying to shrug off the wagon is, Snow is pretty new and hasn't been around all that much this game, it's possible he's just been floundering and didn't have anything to challenge or redirect the wagon with.

Think tomorrow we need to hit T3 with a baseball bat until he shows up again. Or maybe get PC to talk instead of nakedvote. We're really just working on the info of like 3 or 4 players now.

Sorry

was of few posts basically right in a row at EOD yesterDay.

This just seems like someone who is not informed, yes you could say they wanted them to claim as a rolefish....but they were basically gonna be the lim either way.

And the last quote about T3, I dunno seemed a bit more odd when I remembered it after the T3 NK(but quoting it anyways since I just mentioned it)

Also, I do jump at the chance to open wolf haha

[Psyche]

I had an approach to mafia ive been testing these last several games that has before now been reasonably successful. It focused on looking for decisions to do the pro-town thing under conditions where doing the scummy thing was strongly incentivized — both in terms of concrete wincon advancement, and also in terms of reputational advancement.

By the logic of this strategy, declining to support — and instead opposing — a mislim in a situation when no one in the town would have faulted you for backing the mislim is substantially town-telling.

but i guess i forgot how easy it is as scum to look at an easy winning decision in the eye and then to not do that — just in case. i certainly do that all the time as scum. maybe there's something to the approach, but not followed as rigidly as i did.

and besides, i think the mindset tends to give me more townreads than i can handle. apparent unforced anti-scum behavior has seemed relatively common in my games where i've been searching for them. it's created scenarios where i'm trying to figure out which in a pool of townreads is wrong.

best explanation is probably that scum besides ausuka very readily add noise to their play even when they can get away with not doing so, and i only feel good about my strategy because it searches for town, who are—statistically speaking—always readily found. In theory I should be able to more consistently test my approach by tracking how often the people at the bottom of my reads lists turn out to be scum, though...

There needs to be more to the process beyond simply downweighting how much I tr certain kinds of plays.
A feasible alternative is to build a better insight into what makes a behavior convincing or not — a sense of whether an action was disingenuous or particularly sincere-seeming, independently of the action's connection hypothetical win cons.
I have had success lately with this too, but not in this game. Drew was detected as scum D1 in one of those more successful games. I found NAS-scum D1 in another.

It seems possible to do this in a way that doesn't just come down to gut, and it would have detected drew this game too, as well as potentially upweighted how much I valued some discrepancies I found in ausuka's D2 play. But it seems easy to get hung up on certain town this way too — like cakez's case on deus that in retrospect was probably so flawed bc of motivated reasoning / animus against deus as a player. Maybe just keeping awareness of these other potential motives for disingenuous behavior can pump up success rates along this path too.

But whatever, am tired of ruminating now.

[Gypyx]

Drew, Gypyx and HPE what actually are your team solves? I can help y'all if you want a creative thinking exercise or something

pedit: actually you're kinda right

HPE + idk

[Gypyx]

oh we lost

[the worst]

It seems possible to do this in a way that doesn't just come down to gut, and it would have detected drew this game too, as well as potentially upweighted how much I valued some discrepancies I found in ausuka's D2 play. But it seems easy to get hung up on certain town this way too — like cakez's case on deus that in retrospect was probably so flawed bc of motivated reasoning / animus against deus as a player. Maybe just keeping awareness of these other potential motives for disingenuous behavior can pump up success rates along this path too.

i think no matter how one approaches scumhunting, there's always false positives. there's a lot of merit in that more logical method (what actually makes a scum?) and there's always interesting anecdotes like the activity tells that were really popular a few years ago. i also think activity & scum habits tend to shift with site meta as much as individual meta so sometimes looking for objective signs of scumminess can also be a bit of a fast moving target

i also don't think your method has much to do with seeking objectively scummy tells so much as a logical approach to forming a basis which you apply more flexibly. i'm also ruminating a bit i suppose.

as much as i tend to say my reads are just like, based on a vibe or the energy of a particular state of the game or something like that, i think there's a lot of brain-thoughts which inform a lot of those gut reads as well.

[Gypyx]

was the setup really N2 Watcher and that's it?

[schadd_]

no

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[HighPrincessErinys]

funny gimmick that DID NOT come into play. fucked up

[Gypyx]

Yeah

idk i just didn't get a feel for that game

sorry schadd that was a really neat looking setup, ty for modding through the hardship

[the worst]

This set-up is so cool. Thank you schadd. I'd totally play this same thing but w 8 scum vs 2 town

[Ausuka]

Hi. Sorry for replacing out. I had deadlines like every day and I'm actually really not good at academic stuff so it was a big struggle, and I knew it was going to continue for a little while. I probably should have planned ahead more to prevent this from happening.

Me not posting as much definitely wasn't a strategy - if I was actually here on d2 I think the outcome of the game would have been much more assured. I do think I am like, generally capable of creating the kind of content that would have gotten me townread at that time? I was just lacking in time and energy.

Re: psyche - I do think playing town is generally really hard. Scum players always have the initiative and can do whatever they want - in most situations scum have a lot of flexibility. I could have voted Deus on day 1, I chose not to for a similar reason I wouldn't usually push limbait on day 1. Like, it's possible I would have gotten away with it, but my feeling at the time was that I would come off as townier by pushing elsewhere and generating more individual thoughts / content, especially in a way that I think sort of aligns with most people's idea of good townplay, and that doing so would also create more options for 'limmable townies' later in case something happened with deus, like a claim or whatever.

Congrats to drew and worst for their win! Worst did very well for the time he was here, and thanks to drew for taking on my slot.

[Psyche]

yeah your explanation is intuitive. i misguessed the likelihood that you’d think to do that! something my more data-driven research has found is that scum are kind of cautious around joining landing on mislim wagons, to the extent that it even helps distinguish their voting patterns from town. i should have weighed scum’s tendency to play conservatively more strongly. but i’ll need to check first to see if it’s really a consistent bias across contexts/players, or just a possibility to hedge bets over.

[Gypyx]

just realized the "Mafia may not give their teamates vengeful" rule was like, useless? lol

[Gypyx]

that's because it was not that, i am smart