Newbie 1901 (Game Over!)

[Flicker]

VOTE: Alonzo for replacing CheekyTeeky, who I was excited to play with again.

Also, if Flicker is a German word, that's news to me.

[Flicker]

VOTE: Vorkuta

Why?

[Flicker]

muh and flavor are among the people I want to lynch today already. VOTE: flavor

Is your issue with muh still just his RVS reasoning?

Why Flavor Leaf?

[Flicker]

@2ndStoryWindow
@Emperor flippyNips
@Guten tag

How much experience do you have playing mafia?

[Flicker]

@Bulbazoor

Is your issue with muh still just his RVS reasoning?

What about the answer to this question?

I'll also second muh in asking, what did you not like about his RVS reason?

[Flicker]

Flicker what are your intentions in asking about experience?

Mostly I'm just trying to get people talking, and I noticed those three are all fresh MS accounts. I recognize it's not a stellar scum hunting question or anything, but I figure some talking is better than nothing.

[Flicker]

VOTE: Guten tag for not confirming yet

Voting someone for not confirming seems like setting up for a later push on them solely for not confirming early. Guten sounds pretty genuine so far to me. And look at how Flavor tried to vote me for me voting him. It wasn't a forced and weak push. It was an attempt to gouge your reactions and so far you aren't reacting well. Rapidly anger-voting me when I call you out is not a good thing to do. You got defensive as soon as I started attempting to pressure you.

These stances are

such

reaches, but they strike me as slightly towny, given the game state. I think scum are more likely to be sitting back now, and you stuck your neck out, so alright.

As to why I think those are reaches:

• - Guten literally has 5 words and a vote so far, and two of those words are apologies to the moderator. I don't think you can read genuineness or non-genuiness from those, but even then those seem pretty NAI.
  - Have you considered the possibility that Flavor Leaf's vote on you was also a reaction test? It didn't come across as angry or defensive to me at all.

Pedit: Bulbazoor town read strengthened slightly. (I'm multitasking - poorly - right now, that's why this pedit/post is so delayed.)

[Flicker]

Flicker why are you mad that I tr guten and wouldn't want him today?

I'm not mad, I just think it's a borderline nonsensical read.

Also, you upgrading/clarifying your position to "wouldn't want him today" is a little worrisome.

Well someone has to unvote at some point because it makes no sense to lynch this quickly.

Personally I don't think L-2 is that dangerous, but hopefully they'll unvote when they see my cool new wagon.

As town, I would gladly accept the D-1 lynch as a necessary sacrifice and hope town can build a solid case based on any evidence that I've left behind while alive

VOTE: Vorkuta because this post pings my scum radar.

[Flicker]

Unfortunately the probability (22%) of randomly catching scum on the first day is more than that (20%) of randomly guessing based on the bandwagon after someone flips green.

I'm not sure what this means, can you elaborate?

I like my odds, and bulbasaur is responding quite selfishly and anti-towny. Almost even contrary to the town's win condition....

Are you suggesting Bulbazoor is a policy lynch more than a scum read?

[Flicker]

Been working on a little wall post, which I'm gonna break into two for better readability.

protown to allow yourself to get lynched as town

For a worthy cause it is. Like if we have a solid and foolproof contingency plan that guarantees us scum the next day for what happens when you flip green.

Solid and foolproof contingency plan, in a mafia game? Seems unlikely.

Say we all collectively randomly picked someone to lynch on D-1. Odds that we hit scum are 2/9 = 22%.
Now let's assume they flip townie, obviously we have to analyze the wagon. I have faith in town (unlike Bulba) and believe that they will not lynch unless there is scum intervention- this is just my interpretation of game theory and what not. There is 1 scum out of 5 people who voted to lynch = 20%.

Simple statistics tells me that without any additional information I'd rather be the one to pick someone at random to lynch, than analyze a wagon that I wasn't on.

points

of interest

There are 3 ways to approach this:
-the mysterious IC will use jedi-mind tricks to manipulate us and win the game as scum (chance of happening- 2/9)
-the wise and illustrious IC will use their infinite wisdom to bless us newbies with insight and town leadership (chance of happening- 7/9)
-the IC doesn't do their duty and lurks/disappears/gets banned (chance of happening- 0 because this is FL )

Probability is all well and good, but we're not in a probable chance, we're in an actuality. What little experience I have as scum offsite leads me to side eye your reliance on statistics in these two posts, given that a more theoretical approach is easier to take as scum.

Towny

Myself
Flavor Leaf
Alonzo
Flicker

No Read

Guten Tag
Emperor

Scummy

Bulbazoor
Vorkuta

Can you explain your Flavor Leaf and Alonzo reads?

[Flicker]

Is everyone else asleep? Been a while since I did one of these readlists.

Emperor flippyNips
Vorkuta
2ndStoryWindow
muh316
Guten tag

I am here so far in terms of people I'd be happy with lynching. Guten needs to speak up. 2ndstory, so do you. I want to hear all of what you guys have to say.

Is this list in any particular order?

Similarly (but also not similar), I do not have a read on Flicker. Most of his posts have been questions, and I acknowledge the fact that he was trying to get conversation started, but still. They just don't seem town or scummy at the moment.

*She/her, thanks.

---

In terms of a reads list, this is where I am:

Emperor flippyNips - Jury's out for now.
Vorkuta - Scummiest so far. Not a strong scum vibe, but still.
2ndStoryWindow - Town lean for post 105. I also feel like his vote on Flavour Leaf might be a little IC-related paranioa, which is extremely relatable and more likely to be town IMO.
muh316 - Tentative, somewhat conflicted town lean. Kind of feels like his stances are too safe, like he's trying not to rock the boat or stand out, which feels vaguely scummy. But, I don't know if that's just paranoia because we agree on a lot.
Guten tag - Jury's out for now.
Alonzo - Don't like how he called out/shaded Vorkuta without voting there, but it's one little thing, and from following along with other games Alonzo's been in, he has a style I find hard to read. Null.
Bulbazoor - Towniest so far, for reasons I've already talked about.
Flavor Leaf - The last time I was worried someone was buddying/pocketing me, they turned out to be town. On the other hand, I think a little IC paranoia can be healthy. So, null?

Pedit: Okay, Flavor Leaf can be a scum lean for now. Something about his responses to 2ndStoryWindow feel off.

Pedit2:

Potential ScumFlicker or ScumMuh would benefit greatly from moving to my wagon. Let’s see what happens with them.

Not sure why you said this. You basically just ruined any chance of seeing our actual reactions.

[Flicker]

Yes this is my first time playing this game online and I find the dynamic of it to be rather interesting for the moment it’s hard to read anyone as scum for me besides flavor who’s seems to be digging himself into a scummy hole, but my vote remains the same it still is a rvs anyways

Do you have any town reads? Those can be helpful, too, in terms of process of elimination.

[Flicker]

So far
bulba: is a little suspect to me
vorkuta: is also slightly suspect but I feel like that could be a miss read
Tag: hasn’t said enough for me to really gain an opinion on them so by them just sitting idle could be scum could be busy
Flicker: I’m getting townie vibes from
same for: muh, Alanzo
And as for flavor he has scum written all over him

I think you missed 2ndStoryWindow; what's your read on him?

Now that you're starting to make reads, why are you still holding on to your RVS vote?

[Flicker]

VOTE: Guten tag

Wasn't initially up for this, but I'm okay here now.

[Flicker]

UNVOTE:

@Emperor

: Please vote for an actual scum read, then, or at the very least unvote?

[Flicker]

I am pretty certain muh is not a towny. I don't buy the suspicion he puts into the claim. Just doesn't come across as genuine

Agreed. The more I read, something about muh's tone just feels off to me (both with the claim and overall).

VOTE: muh316

Town lean Flicker

The feeling's mutual. I like all your posts on today/on this page, they feel towny.

[Flicker]

Some of my issues with muh's tone/posts, spoilered for readability:

Spoiler: TL;DR - weak stances, fluff/IIoA

I agree with Flicker, this seems like you're reaching too hard but I like it because you helped get us out of RVS. I guess you're suggesting that I would use this to push for a policy lynch. I personally think it's better to drag out the first day because it gives you more info on possible scum teams and voting patterns come D2. It seems like you're really pushing for a quick lynch which I don't agree with.

I also find it funny how you think Guten sounds genuine when he's only written 5 words since the game started

This is mostly what I said, just with added words about day length and etc. which feel like fluff to boost his post or try and make his answer seem different from mine.

Is your Vorkuta townread serious or sarcastic? Speaking of read lists, I'll post what I have so far

Towny

Myself
Flavor Leaf
Alonzo
Flicker

No Read

Guten Tag
Emperor

Scummy

Bulbazoor
Vorkuta

Bulbazoor and Vorkuta's conversation on mafia theory of sacrifice vs not-sacrificing for the good of the town gave me scum vibes. I'm not saying they're both the scum team but there's definitely something in that conversation that set off the feeling that one could be scum.

I'm interested in other players putting their current read lists out there as well.

This last line, "I'm interested in ..." feels a little weak and artificial. Like, if you want reads, you can just ask or push for them, instead of this more passive approach.

Can you explain your Flavor Leaf and Alonzo reads?

Sure. At that time I felt like Alonzo and Flavor Leaf had contributed to the conversation. I didn't get scum vibes so I put them on my towny list. If you're not scum, then you're town so I felt like they belong there. The list was in no particular order.The "No read" list was for people who hadn't contributed enough for me to place them anywhere.

Overly explaining the reads in general (especially since I only asked for the two), but weakly explaining the town reads for Alonzo and Flavor Leaf. Feels like a lot of fluff, especially the two redundant lines about "If you're not scum, you're town."

Now that he's at L-2, I hope we get something.

Feels like he's saying something just to say something, and again it's sort of weak/fluffy. The more I look at this, the more it sets off my scum radar.

I'm still not 100% convinced Guten Tag is the doctor. We have no guarantee of knowing whether or not there is a doctor in this setup to counterclaim. This could either be a big gamble for the mafia team, or a noob move. I'm still not sure which way to lean.

But why would you cast doubt on a claim made by someone I assume to be new to the game?

His account is new to Mafiascum, it doesn't necessarily mean he's new to the game. I don't want to give GT the benefit of the doubt just because this is his first game and that's why I'm not going to blindly accept his claim.

I'll still stand by what I said. I don't necessarily think that he could be telling the truth. For all we know, we might be in a format where there is no Doctor. There's a 55% chance there is no doctor in this game. That could be why there hasn't been a counterclaim. He could have just thrown the doc claim out there randomly.

These all feel more theoretical or IIoA, and something about "I'm not going to blindly accept his claim," which implies that the three of us who unvoted had, rubs me the wrong way.

I don't know if I explained that super-well, but I'm trying to keep this short because I have a lot of work to do.

muh what do you think of the votes on you RN? justified?

Vorkuta's vote on me was OMGUS so I didn't read too much into it. Bulbazoor has been voting me on and off so that one was no surprise.
I was surprised at Flicker because it came out of nowhere because she had given me an initial townlean on her read list. I've clarified my reasoning and "tone" in the last few posts so I hope that I get unvoted.

I guess you missed the part of my read where I was conflicted because you seemed to be playing it safe, then. The tone issue was more of a slow realization that crystallized with Bulbazoor's comment, and it's here in this post, too - "I hope I get unvoted" just feels like a weird thing to say or weird way to phrase it.

[Flicker]

Hey, no fair prodding me while I'm asleep!

So, Guten claims doc and Emperor claims VT, both of which I'm inclined to believe for now (Guten just for the possible utility, Emperor based on my read of him as fairly genuine and not scummy). I think maybe we can afford one more claim? After that, I feel like we should just lynch in the claims for sure.

I kind of want to restart the Vorkuta wagon, but I'll stay where I am given the holiday and time constraints.

[Flicker]

@Emperor
@Flavor

Please vote, thanks.

[Flicker]

I'm not asking for a claim from anyone (yet); I'm saying that we could probably afford push one more person to L-1 and get their claim, if we wanted, but no more. Otherwise, I think we'd just have to lynch between Guten and Emperor (which I'd prefer not to do), or I guess lynch without asking for a claim (which seems like even worse form than claiming early, IMO).

(I'll come back and address the other stuff in your post later, I have holidaying to do.)

[Flicker]

Why is lynching without a claim worse? Why do you expect someone to claim at L-1?

It's strong site meta, and generally a good idea, to ask for a claim before you place a hammer vote, in case you've run up a PR. The only time you maybe wouldn't ask for a claim is if there are no PRs (either because it's an all vanilla game or they're already dead) or if there's a specific setup reason that makes claiming useless (example: Watchmen Wanted).

I expect town to claim truthfully because it helps the other townies (especially the one who wants to hammer) figure out if they still want to lynch them and lying is generally bad for town.

Here’s the reason why it’s bad: let’s assume two things, that there is a doctor in this game and Guten tag is not it. (This is hypothetical for the purpose of an example.) Let’s say I was the doc, and I was put at L-1 and expected to claim. I’m now put into an unfavorable position for the entire town. Either claim doc and run the risk of getting NKed tonight, or lie that I’m a townie and - while I may save myself as a doc - I can no longer counterclaim late game if need be, and/or I’ve lost a bit of credibility if it comes out I lied. Yeah, lying seems not that big of a deal if played well, but I’d rather not be put in, nor put someone else in, that position.

If there was a non-Guten doc out there, I'd expect them to have already counterclaimed, because 1) trading a PR for scum is a pretty good deal and 2) doctor's not the strongest PR (relies on being able to guess who scum will kill, which to some extent relies on knowing who scum are). Also, FYI doctors can't target themselves at night (assuming that's what you mean by "while I may save myself as a doc").

For reference, my comment about getting one more claim stems from this comment by the IC of my last Newbie game:

Yeah, I was thinking about this earlier, and was like, I really don't want to push in too many more places today because I don't want to risk outing a PR, but um, that's not a real reason not to just lynch someone because they claimed VT. You lynch who you think has the highest chance of flipping mafia. Generally speaking you don't want to sacrifice dayplay for night play.

There's a limit to this, like if you run 3 people up near the end of a dayphase and don't like how the lynch felt on any of them, and they all claimed, you probably want to be super super super certain that someone out those 3 is mafia, or super super certain that all 3 of them are town, before you push another person to claim. At that point it's probably optimal to just lynch inside the slots that have claimed.

[Flicker]

R.I.P. this game, killed by Thanksgiving.

Since I won't have much chance to post tomorrow, I'll just say that I'm not as opposed to lynching between Guten and Emperor as I was yesterday. Hopefully we get a replacement for Guten who does something, and Emperor can do something more than just asking about abbreviations (hint: voting), and we can get a lynch today and get back on track D2.

[Flicker]

Since I won't have much chance to post tomorrow, I'll just say that I'm not as opposed to lynching between Guten and Emperor as I was the day before yesterday.

EBWOP

(RIP my sense of time while we're at it...)

[Flicker]

My knee-jerk reaction is to vote 2nd for his terrible hammer, but I'd like to reread the thread, which I haven't had time to do, and likely won't have time for until tomorrow. I'd be comfortable sheeping Alonzo and Bulbazoor at this point; everyone else is suspect to one degree or another.

[Flicker]

Ok guys. Why wasn't doc claim killed?

WIFOM or scum, I think. WIFOM, because it was a near-useless slot that claimed in a possibly suspicious way. Scum, because it's a fake claim.

At the moment, I'm tempted to lynch Emperor for being kind of useless, especially as the day progressed. But, like I said, I want to reread the thread, and see if I can find any associatives between pairs.

[Flicker]

So, here are the notes from my reread (which was actually just ISOs, so I might have missed a little):

Spoiler: This is a mess, sorry

Alonzo - gonna go with my townread for now, also Denzel is cool
Bulbazoor - gonna go with my townread for now, also Bulbasaur's too cute to be a killer
Emperor - mentions or interacts with everyone a little, nobody really stands out as someone he's avoiding or interacting with a lot; could be scum with anyone
Flavor - kind of 1v1s Bulbazoor and 2nd; interacts a lot with Emperor for mostly NAI reasons (friendship and ICing); interacts with everyone else at a pretty consistent level; can't tell if he actually feels like town or if I just want him to be town, but I doubt he's scum with 2nd or Bulbazoor
2nd - pushes Flavor (and now Bulbazoor), interacts with others pretty consistently relative to their activity (like, guten was basically non-existent, vs Vorkuta who was more present); super-high level scum or just town (mostly based on the hammer), probably town
Guten - basically no interactions, only really saved by doc claim yesterday; could be scum with anybody

VCA - one scum on lynch wagon, one off usually a good assumption
On wagon - Bulbazoor, Guten/replacement, Flavor, 2nd
Off-wagon - Alonzo, Emperor

Most likely on wagon: Guten
Most likely off wagon: Emperor

Is the scum team just Emperor/Guten's slot? It feels like too easy a solve, but my last game was a large (Overkill 1) where the easy solve was also the correct one, so IDK.

I'm a little more comfortable voting Emperor for now, just to give Guten's replacement a chance to post and hedge against the chance the doc claim is real.

VOTE: Emperor flippyNips

[Flicker]

@residentcalleddean

: Claim your N1 target in your first post, please and thank you.

[Flicker]

We’re down to 5v2. We basically cannot afford a mislynch today, given our chances to win go way down. Unlike yesterday, I’m up for a no-lynch today if we can’t come to a consensus.

Not sure I agree with this. I know 3/2 LYLO is tight (not that we're guaranteed it with a possible doctor), but another lynch still gives us more information and helps narrow down the pool of suspects.

Flicker why does/did this [Bulbazoor's post 37] seem towny?

It's like I already said - it was too awkward and reachy and unnecessary a post to make if Bulbazoor was scum. It was also the first longer, more explanation-filled post of the game, which stands out and seems like bad play for scum. Given that Bulbazoor's an SE, I think he would know better than to post that as scum, especially with how experienced he seems to be (based on join date and post count).

You weren’t opposed to lynching Guten but hope his replacement says something. How will he/she do that if Guten gets lynched?

1) "Lynching between Guten and Emperor" isn't the same as wanting to lynch Guten (I was leaning more towards Emperor, a feeling I have obviously carried into today).
2) I hoped we'd get a replacement sooner and have more time to see what they said (but somebody hammered two days early ).

Why would you lynch Emperor for being useless? I mentioned this above; we can’t afford a mislynch or our chances of winning drop considerably.

Sometimes, people are useless because they're scum. In the absence of any other scum reads, that's all I've got.

(Also, this repeated insistence that "we can't afford a mislynch or our chances of winning go down" - especially with the maybe scumread on me (so is it really

our

chances of winning?) - smell a little LAMIST. Maybe I'm overthinking it and your hammer is actually scummy...)

[Flicker]

I might be lean scumming Flicker because he did the opposite of 2nd and looks like a try hard scum mode activated.

I feel Emperor was the easy way out with that reads list, and sat on the fence for most of the reads.

If you're talking about just my notes today, that wasn't a reads list, it was a possible associatives/teams list. I didn't make that clear in the post, but in the last post of mine before that I said:

But, like I said, I want to reread the thread, and see if I can find any associatives between pairs.

Pedit:

The “gonna go with town for now” is why I said they all seem to be fence sitting.

Eh, mostly that's just me being lazy. Sue me.

[Flicker]

residentcalleddean has been prodded.

99.9% sure this slot's getting replaced again, BTW. And since this is someone who had to pm to take the slot (per the Newbie queue), all things being equal, it seems a little scummy to me they never posted. Not saying they couldn't have had a sudden emergency/changed their mind about playing, but I would think if they got Town Doctor that, barring something awful happening, they'd want to play.

(In before Flavor accuses me of going after another easy target.)

[Flicker]

Hello

Hi. Kindly vote, please and thank you.

[Flicker]

@Trekkie99

: Claim your N1 target in your first post, please and thank you.

[Flicker]

Hello? Hi everyone! Complete noob here. What is my N1 target?

The initial player in your slot claimed doctor, so your N1 (night 1) target is whoever he chose to protect last night.

[Flicker]

Okay, interesting...

If you could read through the thread and give your impressions ASAP, that would help us all out a lot.

[Flicker]

Oh, and if you voted, that would be great, too.

[Flicker]

As for who I'm gong to vote for...

Vote: Flavor Leaf

For being rather quiet and halfhearted.

Can you explain what you mean by this?

Also, can you give reads (opinions) on the rest of us?

[Flicker]

Skimmed Flicker, on balance Flickers Push on Muh followed by her more indecisive start to today feels off.

Went in pretty hard on Muh and laid the case for the push based off 'tone'.

Feeling alot less confident of my read there now.

I mean, of course I'm less certain today, after I cased and helped mislynch someone. Wouldn't it be more suspicious if I hadn't changed my play at all today?

Yeah I’m starting to lean more towards flicker being scummy over flavor right at this moment

This post rubs me the wrong way. Jumping on a bandwagon much?

My thoughts exactly. You can go back to being a town lean, 2nd.

[Flicker]

Day 2 Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-06 19:00:00)

Putting this in my ISO for reference/posting it as a reminder for everyone.

@Bulbazoor
@Emperor

Please vote so we can get a better idea of wagons and possible intent/claims.

@2nd

If neither of the above votes in a timely fashion, could you just go ahead and vote Emperor so we can have a better chance at a lynch today? Unless you're still thinking about a no-lynch, which we can keep talking out.

[Flicker]

If Emperor and I were the scum team, there was absolutely zero reasoning for Vorkuta death, as that would have been a great asset to have.

Yeah, unless the night kill was some master WIFOM, I don't think a team with Flavor would have killed Vorkura. I also don't think a Flavor/Emperor team (or possibly a Flavor/Trekkie's slot team) would have Emperor being this inactive/bad. I mean, if I was Flavor, I'd be coaching my partner in the scum chat 1000%, and I just don't get that sense from Emperor's play. Not that scum teams can't say, "Hey, let's not get interact privately, to keep our game thread interactions pure," but I think that kind of play works better when they're both experienced.

Also, I'm too impatient to wait any more for Trekkie's reply to my last questions, so I'll say this: take a look at the time stamps between my and Trekkie's posts when I asked him to read the thread and vote. If he really did read the whole thread, is that suspiciously fast (roughly 30-40 minutes, depending on which posts you compare)? It's not definitive evidence he's fake-claiming scum (there's a few other plausible explanations I don't have time to lay out right now), but I found it odd and I want to know what everyone else thinks, especially

@2nd

b/c it seems like you have the most WIM.

[Flicker]

I've been thinking some more about Trekkie's slot, and I think I've just been derptunneled on him, sorry. Claiming TPR at L-2 is bad town play, but it seems like it would be worse scum play (bad timing vs bad timing + fake claim).

Unfortunately, I can't afford to budget any time to go back over the thread before EoD, and Emperor's still the closest thing I have to a scum read - plus I don't think another lynch is gonna come together - so my vote's staying there. For tomorrow, I will do my best to actually, fully read back over the thread and figure out what's happening, especially if I'm wrong about Emperor, too.

(I feel like this is gonna be my worst game on the site by far; school is definitely melting my brain.)

[Flicker]

Please state intent to hammer so I can claim, thank you. (Although, with the way this game has gone, I almost feel like I should claim now anyway.)

[Flicker]

Okay, then...

I'm the Town Jailkeeper.

Bulbazoor was my N1 target. That's why I said the thing about him being too cute to be a killer in my D2 notes on D1, because I assumed that if Guten's slot was actually the doctor, then they didn't roleblock me (since presumably we're in A2). At some point D1 I panicked and felt like I had to scum it up to avoid the night kill (after Guten claimed? IDK), which explains some of my "bad" play (not all, though; like I said, college is melting my brain).

If I'm not getting lynched and we are in A2, I assume I'm dying tonight now, unless I can successfully target the roleblocker. So, it's been fun, y'all. If you're town, trust no one and question everything in LYLO tomorrow.

[Flicker]

These were the reads notes I made for myself earlier today:

Doctor - Trekkie

Townier
2ndstorywindow
Flavor (based on NK as much as posting?)
Bulbazoor (posting seems to have dropped D2) & Alonzo (???)
Emperor
Scummier

At this point, I'm really not sure about any of them. 2nd being towny is the only thing that feels good, but feeling good doesn't always equal being right.

[Flicker]

I'm up for compromising on basically any wagon that isn't me at this point (2nd would be more of a worst-case scenario compromise lynch), but I still like my vote on Emperor more than I don't. I'll scan for vote tags in these last few hours of D1, see which way the wind's blowing and if it would be better to move my vote, but otherwise I'm out for the day/game.

Pedit: Yeah, it's my first time rolling TPR and I didn't do a great job, huh?

[Flicker]

Unvote: Flavor Leaf

Vote: Emperor

I think this is hammer. Not sure how I feel about this, TBH...

[Flicker]

C'mon, Trekkie, talk to us. Why'd you come in and just switch votes like that?

[Flicker]

Okay, I have a few thoughts and I'm not sure they're entirely coherent:

1) My immediate instinct is to turbo Trekkie here, since the doctor claim is obviously fake (granted, the other two of you townies have to trust I'm telling the truth), and townies shouldn't have any reason to lie like that.

2) Did they know Bulbazoor was the tracker? If so, why kill him,? B/c doing so reveals the fake claim. (Unless two townies in a row decided to lie about being doctor? Seems

pretty

unlikely.)

2) Since we're in B2 and not A2, so all scum has is a rolecop, I wonder why they didn't kill me? Unless there's some kind of weird WIFOM game they're playing... (Pedit: Oh yeah, clearly this is a game of "who should be believed?")

Also, I did jail Flavor Leaf last night.

Pedit: Wouldn't be surprised if Trekkie's the rolecop, because it makes the lie easier to peddle.

[Flicker]

Also, if Trekkie is scum, why kill someone who went to bat so hard for his fake claim being genuine? That's either the the most ridiculous or genius WIFOM move to try and pin it on me...

[Flicker]

Maybe, with the scummy hammer yesterday, Trekkie's the sacrifice play today and his partner thinks he has a good shot at tomorrow's LYLO?

[Flicker]

I have other thoughts, but I'm gonna take a break and not flood the thread. I'll be around for about the next 10 hours to talk if anyone wants, though.

Spoiler: Countdown of my open availability, b/c countdowns are fun

(expired on 2018-12-08 21:11:31)

[Flicker]

@Rob14

or to anyone else who can answer: (this is completely theoretical) If a jailkeeper targets a mafia member, the mafia team can still kill, correct?

It depends. The mafia team has to designate one of them to perform the kill, so if the jailkeeper targets the designated killer, there wouldn't be a kill. If the JK targets the non-killing mafia, the kill goes through.

Pedit: Please unvote. If Flavor's town, the mafia could coordinate a quickhammer and win now.

[Flicker]

You’re not. You can easily be scum with Trekkie. You’re experienced, you know what’s up. Tell Guten to claim doc and Trekkie do the same, they’re in the clear for awhile. There’s risk of a CC, but you’ve said you’re up for a risk sometimes. I find Flicker’s jailkeeper claim to be more genuine at the moment since we lost the possibility of there being a roleblocker (RB could easily fakeclaim JK). You said Emperor would flip town, cool, and I read it as a cop subtleclaim. You could easily be the rolecop and that was free brownie points for you.

If you think my claim is genuine and Trekkie is scum, then why not vote for Trekkie? Pedit: Day 3 LYLO is a day to reexamine all your reads, not to trust yourself - there's a reason I gave that "trust no one" advice before day end yesterday, and it goes back to my first Newbie game, where the winning scum team included a universally townread player.

I’m not actively seeking a turbo nor do I think there will be one because I’ve got my heart set on you being scum. Flicker explicitly advocating for a turbo should not have been said, however. Before you say my vote carries more weight than his words, reread the first sentence of this paragraph.

I wasn't advocating for a turbo, especially given my lack of voting, I was saying it was my immediate reaction.

Also, "your heart set on someone being scum" is a very strange turn of phrase. He's scum or he's not scum, your heart doesn't enter into it.

(Unless maybe you're trying to set him up as scum, aka you're actually scum?)

I’m willing to risk my towniness by placing a pressure vote on you right now, and it’s definitely working.

But you're not risking your towniness, you're potentially risking the game for not just you but the other two of us.

[Flicker]

I don’t know why you keep pushing this false narrative that I just disappeared. I don’t think i’ve Even been prodded.

Actually, the only player left without a prod this game is Alonzo, which I would consider to be slightly towny. But also, people say activity is NAI (even though I've seen a few "sort by post; scum's at the bottom" games), and even if it was AI, I don't think it's strongly AI.

Pedit: I did look at your pairings post, Flavor. It seems pretty good, but I want to go back and reread the thread, too, and do my own pairings analysis from my perspective, just to be sure. I've never been in LYLO in a game I started in, so I want to do my best to get it right.

Also, I think you missed Alonzo/2nd in your analysis?

Pedit2: 2nd, this is a team game, so if you're town, could you please put aside your reasons and unvote, for me and our other teammate?

Pedit3: FMPOV, today we have to lynch Trekkie b/c of the fakeclaim, and deal with his partner tomorrow. But I don't want to rush it.

(Sheesh, I'm having a real hard time keeping up with the thread right now... )

[Flicker]

I didn’t miss Alonzo/2nd. It physically can’t be the team because of the claiming between you two.

Oh, right, haha, of course.

Without even reevaluating even though i’m the only one who was trying to not have Emperor lynched.

Alright, lol.

@Flicker - you want Trekkie or 2nd today?

Yeah you said that for free town points. You knew he'd get lynched, he was at L-1 for awhile. Again, it keeps you out of the spotlight.

Being the only person advocating against a lynch in no way keeps someone out of the spotlight.

Pedit:

I'm not unvoting. Lynch me for it

Don't think I'm not tempted. If you're town, I'm gonna be so pissed.

[Flicker]

Pedit @ Flavor: If 2nd's scum, why not just bus Trekkie? Seems like the easier scum play IMO.

Pedit2 @ 2nd:

Prepare to be pissed. I already am

What are you mad about?

[Flicker]

I feel like scum!2nd had pretty decent odds in 3p LYLO before his posting today, though. Going after this gambit instead seems... well, suicidal.

[Flicker]

I would literally never expect to win in an 1v1 with an IC, though, especially in my first Newbie game. Whichever way this shakes out, 2nd today has just been odd.

[Flicker]

If we lynch Trekkie, he flips red,

Flicker, you can jail me.

If someone dies, I’m conf town.

If nobody dies, there could be a no kill gambit to frame me, BUT we all 4 make it to Lylo, and I kind of like that.

This play basically just makes it so there’s no way that I would be able to make a kill if scum.

2nd would have to either kill Flicker or Alonzo, which would confirm me as town anyways.

To stop the confirmation from happening, 2nd has to no kill.

I'm mulling over this plan. Right now I'm leaning towards jailing 2nd, though, but I can see the merits in this.

I'll definitely announce who I'm going to jail when I vote, though.

[Flicker]

Mad that I'm always the one who gets pinned endgame. Wonder how many of those times I've been scum? Almost never. When I'm scum I die early

This sounds like you have more experience than you let on initially ("some experience, but it’s been awhile"). Have you played FM before? If so, where? Can you pin down exactly how long "awhile" ago was?

[Flicker]

@2nd

More times than not when I've checked to see who's online over this last hour or two, I've noticed Alonzo's name there. Wouldn't it benefit scum!Alonzo to sit back and watch two townies 1v1 while he twiddles his thumbs and waits for his scum partner to come back and coordinate a quickhammer?

Can you

please

consider the possibility that you could be wrong long enough to unvote?

[Flicker]

UNVOTE:

Thank you. That really puts my mind at ease.

[Flicker]

Flavor - He opened up the game for scum by saying their best play is to not kill tonight. If he was town, he should have kept those comments to himself so scum possibly kills and makes it almost obvious who they are, assuming Flicker really does jailkeep Flavor tonight. That leaves him and me, or him and Trekkie in a 1v1 tomorrow, both of those he feels confident to win. Also, him asking to be jailed seems suspicious. If he was town, he should be asking Flicker to jailkeep whoever he thinks scum is, not attempting to “confirm himself as town.” Let your play do that

I don't think scum really no-kills if given the chance, though, because in 4p MYLO two of us can choose to no lynch, I get another chance to jail someone, and it might lead to a weird game of chicken where we run the risk of invoking rule #7:

7. If five consecutive day or night phases go by with no deaths, the game will end in a loss for all factions.

Him asking to be jailed also made some sense. Plus, it would be a stupid scum move, with your partner outed as fakeclaiming, to ask to be jailed - I know, I read his signature, but still. I feel like this is more of a playstyle difference than a scummy thing.

[Flicker]

FTR, I'm currently leaning towards jailkeeping Alonzo tonight, given that he's a bit of a question mark for me at this point and I think town would benefit the most from having him be conftowned (if applicable). I'm having a hard time seeing either of you two as scum, and I kind of don't trust either of you to correctly read the other right now.

I mean, if we're lynching Trekkie today (why wouldn't we?) and I'm wrong about who's scum, these would be LYLO the scenarios:

Lynch Trekkie -> Jail Alonzo -> Alonzo's not scum, I die -> Flavor vs. 2nd with Alonzo conftowned
Lynch Trekkie -> Jail Flavor -> Flavor's not scum, I die -> Alonzo vs. 2nd with Flavor conftowned
Lynch Trekkie -> Jail 2nd -> 2nd's not scum, I die -> Alonzo vs. Flavor with 2nd conftowned

As much as I wouldn't enjoy reading Flavor vs. 2nd round two from the dead thread, that seems like the most advantageous scenario. Thoughts?

[Flicker]

@2nd

:

Pedit3: FMPOV, today we have to lynch Trekkie b/c of the fakeclaim, and deal with his partner tomorrow. But I don't want to rush it.

[Flicker]

Definitely leaning Flicker.

Don't see why. She has every reason to be suspicious of me considering I'm not dead after all this time. Of course unless she is a scum trying to reinforce a already existing suspicion that everyone probably has of me.

Wow, you really don't understand the 2d3 setup in Newbie games, do you? (Or you're just pretending, I guess.)

Bulbazoor flipped Town Tracker, which means we can't both be telling the truth about our roles (there's no setup with more than two town power roles). If you were telling the truth, we'd be in C3; but since you're lying (and I think that's pretty obvious to the other townies), we're in B2.

Since there's no logical (or conceivable, TBH) scenario where a vanilla townie fakeclaims doctor, gets replaced twice, the first replacement doesn't post and the second repeats the lie that they're the doctor, you're caught scum.

I guess I appreciate the effort, but it's okay to give up now.

(I mean, the only other possible scenario is moderator error, but I would hope that had been caught early on and we'd have re-rolled or something.)

[Flicker]

Just reread the thread, and my inclination is to jail either 2nd or Alonzo - 2nd b/c he seems like the most likely scum (weird inconsistencies, some odd behavior re: Trekkie's slot, setup spec that seemed designed to get me to trust the doctor claim, aggro in a way I've seen scum be before) or Alonzo as middle-of-the-road and a better strategic town clear ("sort by post count" scum, if I'm wrong he has more material to work off to sort between the other of you two and I trust him more to win the game (sorry, 2nd)).

@Flavor

: What do you think? Which one would you jail, in my shoes?

[Flicker]

I realize that's banking on Flavor being town, which is risky, so...

@Alonzo
@2nd

Which of the other two would you jail, given the choice?

[Flicker]

I’m declaring

V/LA until this Friday

, because this is exam week in uni. I’ll still be able to post, but I don’t want to be prodded if I go absent for 2 days.

I'm in the same boat until Thursday. I should be able to post once a day, so I'm not gonna go V/LA, but just in case anyone's wondering why I've gone quieter.

[Flicker]

“It’s ok to give up now,” idk man, I know what you’re trying to say but that’s against his wincon no matter what faction he’s aligned with. Why should he give up?

Caught scum give up constantly on MS from what I've seen. I'm not gonna spell out why, because I'm not gonna give advice to scum during a game, but I don't think its anti-wincon to accept that you got caught out in a fakeclaim and you're gonna be the day's lynch.

If I changed my mind and linked some of my previous games where I was just as aggro as town, would you reconsider your read on me?

My wacky play is less uncommon from me than you might think.

From someone who said "It's just a game. I've gotten far too involved in the past (in a highly negative way, such as flaming) to over-worry about it," this offer (which I'm assuming is hypothetical, but still) seems strange to me. And I don't know if it would change my mind, especially given the time gap.

Also, I gotta call myself out. These three posts contradict each other. I'm gonna go back and read Flavor's posts from yesterday to help solidify my thoughts.

I don't know if this is end of semester brain melting or LYLO induced confusion, but either way you have my sympathies. This also leans me away from jailing you more now.

[Flicker]

Does a no-lynch end the game?

It's extremely risky, but I don't actually think we're in LYLO.

If we no-lynch, we enter the night with 3 town and 2 scum. There's a 1/4 chance Flicker targets the correct mafia member and prevents the kill, which would still leave us in a 3:2 T:S ratio.

Yeah, no, we're not doing this. I can't tell if this is town ridiculousness or a scum gambit, but I highly doubt you could get any two other people on MS to bite on this plan, much less two other people in this game.

1) Not lynching scum when you have the chance is extremely ridiculous.
2) Risky is an understatement. I'm not confident I'd win that game of WIFOM, having modded a game where the PR had one chance to get things right a night and batted nothing (no shade to Nauci if she's reading this, I doubt most of us would have done better). Even if I knew with confidence who Trekkie's partner was, that's still a 50/50 chance, plus if scum wins the guessing game ("who would Flicker target?" vs "who would they think I wouldn't target?") then it

is

LYLO after all.

Why? The first person Flavor is coming after tomorrow (if there is one) is me. I directed it at you because you're the jailer and ultimately your thoughts matter

now

, while his matter

tomorrow

. He can still read whatever I link and come to his own conclusion.

I mean, if you want to link it for Flavor's sake, go ahead, but don't do it on my account. It just seemed to contradict your "I'm not worrying about this game too much" stance.

[Flicker]

VOTE: Trekkie99

I'm jailing Alonzo. If I'm wrong, good luck tomorrow.

[Flicker]

If scum don't kill, then I think we should no lynch tomorrow, and force them to either kill or have a sad ever after.

[Flicker]

VOTE: Trekkie

You already voted (609); Flavor was the hammer.

[Flicker]

I know

Then why vote again?

[Flicker]

Flicker, can you remind me why you voted muh Day 1?

232 was my stated case on muh; the actual case was based more on a meta-read from a then-ongoing game (Newbie 1899), where he generally seemed more strongly town at a glance IMO, or at the very least different than this game.

[Flicker]

Emphasis

Okay, then. I thought it might be you trying to convince me not to jail you.

[Flicker]

VOTE: No Lynch

I can't tell if Alonzo's the last scum or if scum no-killed, but I'd rather have a few more no-kill nights and the threat of sad ever after to motivate the last scum if they aren't Alonzo, or to feel confident Alonzo is the last scum otherwise.

[Flicker]

I'm leaning towards Alonzo too (I mean, that's why I jailed him), but I wish I felt more confident (like, 100% sure).

I've made some notes of posts mentioning Trekkie's slot for partner-hunting, but given the slot's low activity, it's a pretty thin case. I have to get going for the night, so I'll post it tomorrow.

(Sorry, this is basically just a glorified prodge.)

[Flicker]

To be honest, it’s just kind of circular logic at that point. I don’t think it’s every not a no kill.

Agreed. Even if we did play that game, what happens on the final night if you accidentally jailkeep scum or their intended target? It's not in our interest as town to no-lynch.

I'd only ever jail Alonzo from this point forward, otherwise it doesn't do any good, like you said. I'm also gonna ask the mod to clarify the sad-ever-after rule to see how it would work if we did go with the no lynch plan.

@Mod: Can you clarify rule #7 in Miscellaneous/Mechanics? Do you mean five day/night cycles, or five days and nights back to back (so 3 days, 2 nights or vice versa), or five days in a row or five nights in a row (even with a death in between)? Or something else?

As for Trekkie partner hunting, these are the posts I pulled out:

• 172, Flavor - This one feels like a little bit of an anti-associative. Like, if I had a scum chat with someone, I'd post that there, not in the main thread.
  
• 419, Alonzo - But this is also something I might post in scum chat? IDK, this post is a little weird to me.
  
• 446, 2ndstorywindow - "I'm not lynching a claimed doc D2" strikes me as a little bit of an odd stance. I think it made sense day 1, but I don't think you should be so hard line D2.
  
• 461, 2ndstorywindow - This post implies there's a roleblocker, which, if it's scum!2nd, implies that scum know there's a JK, so they already knew it was me. But is that too much of a stretch?
  
• 482, Alonzo - Possible scum coaching?
  
• 487, Alonzo - Draws attention to Trekkie's hammer in a way that's awkward and therefore scummy?

Like I said, not a lot. I might also check the vote counts, to see who voted with who, because in general it seems like scum are reluctant to vote together.

[Flicker]

I feel like I have a pretty open and shut case on 2sw after the last day and a half.

Would you care to post it?

Hows the case on the Trekkie/Alonzo scum!team coming along?

should be a great read...

This just doesn't feel like a very towny thing to say.

[Flicker]

Day 1 votes:

Spoiler:

Vote Count #1.1:

Bulbazoor

:

2ndStoryWindow, Flavor Leaf,

Vorkuta

(3)

Flavor Leaf:

Alonzo,

Bulbazoor

(2)

Guten tag

:

muh316

(1)

muh316

:

Guten tag

(1)

Alonzo:

Flicker

(1)

2ndStoryWindow:

Emperor flippyNips

(1)

Vote Count #1.2:

Vorkuta

:

Flicker

,

muh316

(2)

Flavor Leaf:

Alonzo, 2ndStoryWindow (2)

Bulbazoor

:

Vorkuta

(1)

muh316

:

Guten tag

(1)

2ndStoryWindow:

Emperor flippyNips

(1)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf,

Bulbazoor

Vote Count #1.3:

Vorkuta

:

Flicker

,

muh316

(2)

Flavor Leaf:

Alonzo, 2ndStoryWindow (2)

muh316

:

Guten tag

,

Vorkuta

(2)

2ndStoryWindow:

Emperor flippyNips

(1)

Not Voting:

Bulbazoor

, Flavor Leaf

Vote Count #1.4:

Guten tag

:

Bulbazoor

, Alonzo,

Flicker

(3)

Vorkuta

:

muh316

(1)

Flavor Leaf:

2ndStoryWindow (1)

muh316

:

Vorkuta

(1)

2ndStoryWindow:

Emperor flippyNips

(1)

Alonzo:

Guten tag

(1)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf

Vote Count #1.5:

Vorkuta

:

muh316

(1)

Flavor Leaf:

2ndStoryWindow (1)

muh316

:

Vorkuta

(1)

Alonzo:

Guten tag

(1)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf, Alonzo,

Bulbazoor

,

Flicker

,

Emperor flippyNips

Vote Count #1.5:

muh316

:

Vorkuta

,

Bulbazoor

,

Flicker

(3)

Flavor Leaf:

2ndStoryWindow, Alonzo (2)

Vorkuta

:

muh316

(1)

Alonzo:

Guten tag

(1)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf,

Emperor flippyNips

Vote Count #1.6:

muh316

:

Bulbazoor

,

Flicker

,

Guten tag

(3)

Flavor Leaf:

2ndStoryWindow, Alonzo (2)

Emperor flippyNips

:

muh316

,

Vorkuta

(2)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf,

Emperor flippyNips

Vote Count #1.7:

muh316

:

Bulbazoor

,

Flicker

,

Guten tag

(3)

Vorkuta

:

Alonzo,

muh316

(2)

Flavor Leaf:

2ndStoryWindow (1)

Emperor flippyNips

:

Vorkuta

(1)

Not Voting:

Flavor Leaf,

Emperor flippyNips

Vote Count #1.8 (FINAL):

muh316

:

Bulbazoor,

Flicker

,

residentcalleddean

, Flavor Leaf, 2ndStoryWindow (5)

Vorkuta

:

Alonzo,

muh316

(2)

Emperor flippyNips

:

Vorkuta

(1)

Not Voting:

Emperor flippyNips

Day 2 votes:

Spoiler:

Vote Count #2.2:

Emperor flippyNips

:

Flicker

, Alonzo (2)

Bulbazoor

:

2ndStoryWindow (1)

Flicker

:

Flavor Leaf (1)

Flavor Leaf:

Trekkie99

(1)

Not Voting:

Emperor flippyNips

,

Bulbazoor

Vote Count #2.3:

Emperor flippyNips

:

Flicker

, Alonzo, 2ndStoryWindow (3)

Flicker

:

Flavor Leaf (1)

Flavor Leaf:

Trekkie99

(1)

Not Voting:

Emperor flippyNips

,

Bulbazoor

Vote Count #2.4 (FINAL):

Emperor flippyNips

:

Flicker

, Alonzo, 2ndStoryWindow,

Trekkie99

(4)

Flicker

:

Flavor Leaf,

Emperor flippyNips

(2)

Not Voting:

Bulbazoor

The main question I have after doing this is: was Guten bussing Alonzo D1, or was Trekkie bussing Flavor D2, or neither? Alonzo was a safe D1 bus, given no one else went after him once RVS was over; Flavor doesn't seem like as safe a bus, given IC paranoia and the votes against him D1.

Did Alonzo bus Guten back on D1? I would also think that's a bit risky, but maybe they came up with the fake claim by that point, so Alonzo would have an easy excuse to jump off and stay off.

Also, the "one scum on, one scum off wagon" theory doesn't hold, b/c Guten's holdover vote was with Flavor and 2nd, and Alonzo, 2nd, and Trekkie voted together at the end of D2. It does seem a little unlikely that the scum team would vote together both days, though, so that might clear 2nd.

[Flicker]

@Mod: Can you clarify rule #7 in Miscellaneous/Mechanics? Do you mean five day/night cycles, or five days and nights back to back (so 3 days, 2 nights or vice versa), or five days in a row or five nights in a row (even with a death in between)? Or something else?

It means five consecutive phases, where either a day or a night counts as a phase. e.g. If there were no kills for the rest of the game, everyone would lose after Night 5.

Okay, thanks.

@Flavor

- I also agree you've been pretty towny this game, but then you go and self-evaluate, and IDK why, it feels a tiny bit scummy. In fairness, I don't like self-meta that much, either from others or myself, and this feels similar to self-meta.

[Flicker]

Oops, forgot to actually address the rule clarification and what it would mean for my no lynch plan.

So, we no lynch --> I jail Alonzo --> no kill --> no lynch --> I jail Alonzo again --> he's scum, we lose.
Or, no lynch --> I jail Alonzo --> no kill --> no lynch --> I jail Alonzo again --> he's not scum, whoever is scum is forced to kill or lose.

That plan feels like too big a risk at this point. (It would have been less risky if the last phase of the no-kill cycle was during the day.) I think I'm (finally) ready to end the game today, one way or another.

If everyone else would like to vote or state vote intention, I'd appreciate it.

P.S. Putting today's deadline in my ISO:

Spoiler:

(expired on 2018-12-20 19:20:00)

Pedit: Yeah, okay, but I feel like your actions speak for themselves, you don't have to keep bringing them up, that's all.

[Flicker]

My preference at this point is (still) to lynch Alonzo, and if that didn't end the game, hmm... I guess I'd lean toward jailing Flavor, but I need to think about it some more.

[Flicker]

Town

Flavor
2nd
Alonzo

Scum

That's my reads list. I'd prefer to lynch Alonzo, but I guess I'd lynch 2nd if an Alonzo lynch doesn't come together in time. I really don't see myself lynching Flavor today, especially because if Flavor flips town, I wouldn't have as much confidence jailing between 2nd and Alonzo.

If we lynch Alonzo --> Alonzo's town --> I jail 2nd
If we lynch 2nd ---> 2nd's town --> I jail Alonzo

If I'm wrong and it's Flavor, good game, you deserve the win.

[Flicker]

Can't you see he's kissing your butt SO hard on this page? Him repeatedly saying "I'm town!" doesn't make him town.

I can't make heads or tails of almost

anything

the three of you have done today, so I'm basically just ignoring it. Otherwise, I'm lost, because y'all look scummy for different reasons.

If town loses, it's on me. Now, the only way you're lynching Flavor today is if you can get him to self-vote, so either persuade him to do so or consider voting Alonzo instead.

[Flicker]

I'm around for ~10 more minutes, if you can get two votes on either Alonzo or 2nd I'll hammer, otherwise I'll come back tomorrow, I guess. This game is really starting to do a number on me.

[Flicker]

I think Flavor's still voting you, and I'm on no lynch, so no, assuming that's what you mean by game.

[Flicker]

Then vote?

[Flicker]

VOTE: 2ndStoryWindow

[Flicker]

Okay, I jailed Alonzo like I said I would, so it's just Alonzo. I don't see any point in waiting to vote, so...

VOTE: Alonzo

[Flicker]

[Flicker]

Good game, y'all. Sorry to town for the mislynches - I think I need to work on my Day 1 play especially. The only mislynch I'm maybe not sorry for is the 2nd lynch, because it didn't seem like he was gonna come around to seeing Flavor as town, and by the end of this game I was totally burned out (and still am) and just wanted it to end.

Thanks to Rob14 for modding, too!