Newbie 1909 | Scheme | Over
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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VOTE: Loopdan
I don’t know what happened back in your day, but according to Highlander there can be only one elephant avi, and I kinda think it goes to the guy whose username is irrelephant.
On that note, you should all get Avis - it is a courtesy form of “facial recognition” for posts. And you should also kindly answer these questions:
1. What is your experience at Mafia
2. How do you play as town
3. How do you play as scum
4. What do you think gives away a player as scum or town-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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1. RL years ago; appr 13 forum games in the last year.
2. I effort obv!town (but have a lot less time during the school year)
3. I effort obv!town (see above).
4. Motivations, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the motive behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it. Another key area of difference is in probabilities. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from the Wiki (link). I'll speak more on associations tomorrow if Im still kicking.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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this may just be the townread post of the game so far.
Also fair warning while I am not teaching this week I am drinking. Hard.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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I think this may have been the unannounced hammer.In post 57, EGL wrote:EBWOP: @Amzela. Sorry for getting the name wrong.
That said, since she removed her vote, I'll put Loop back to L-1 until he answers my question about dicideaq.
VOTE: Loopdan
@Loop, You said you voted yourself to prompt discussion aboutthisgame. Don't you think it would have been better to talk about what you perceived as a dicideaq scumslip rather than your self-voting?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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I think this may have been the unannounced hammer.In post 57, EGL wrote:EBWOP: @Amzela. Sorry for getting the name wrong.
That said, since she removed her vote, I'll put Loop back to L-1 until he answers my question about dicideaq.
VOTE: Loopdan
@Loop, You said you voted yourself to prompt discussion aboutthisgame. Don't you think it would have been better to talk about what you perceived as a dicideaq scumslip rather than your self-voting?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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But its far more likely to help town who may be in their first game. Like 75% more likely.In post 12, Loopdan wrote:I'd rather not give specific answers to this and help out scum who may be in their first game.-
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They arent required but it is strongly recommended/preferred. Again, its just a way to have a visual recognition rather than just your name by the post.In post 18, Amzela wrote:Also how important are avatars, @Teacher?-
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LoopDan is town for this consistency, and the motivations I know to be underlying it. But really, self-voting? Seems janky.In post 43, Loopdan wrote:
I promise I'll explain but I want everyone to check in first.In post 37, EGL wrote:Can I get an explanation first about dicide's alleged scumslip?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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No. Ive seen it end on page 1 and continue on page 10. Rough rule of thumb is (playernumber)*6 -- seems about rightIn post 53, Amzela wrote:Real question: Is there a way to tell when the game has moved out of RVS?-
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The scummy part of dicideaq's post related to the questions, which are still pending for other players. So Dan doesnt want to talk about the reasooning, because he wants to get the same information from the other slots once they confirm or replace-in. Its a really pro-town thing to do.In post 53, Amzela wrote:If Loopdan is voting dicideaq seriously, this would mean Loopdan would explain their voting and what is obvious about dicideaq's scumslip, no?
If they're not (which it seems like so) how does this start happening?-
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I think I have answered this in my other rash of posts, butIn post 58, EGL wrote:What do you think of the LoopDan situation?
Do you think dicideaq made a scumslip?
1. I really dislike the self-vote. I think it can be powerscum claiming a lack of defensiveness and knowing that the first D1 wagon normally falls apart, and that people have a subconscious block against coming back to a slot they have voted and moved away from. But.....
2. I do think dicideaq's answers were scummy, and I find LoopDan's position on the questions really pro-town. Enough to outweigh the self-vote, which could just be his contrarian personality response to my IC post saying it is normally a terrible play.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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What is your native? Francais?In post 105, Clemency wrote:english is a really tough language
I liked your interplay with LD quite a bit, so thank you for the effort even if it was frustrating.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Ive now completed my readthrough of the game. Oddly, Dan was playing differently than my suspicions. I do scumread Dicideaq's answers to the question ,and I thought Dan did too but didnt want to explain why until the other slots had posted. Instead, he *says* he was just trying to bait easy votes out of the experienced players. Interestingly, he says this in the midst of a 1v1 with an experienced player who did follow him.
The new story earns Dan less town points than I had been awarding. EGL is now my hardest town for the consistent desire for information and using the vote to pressure well.
@Clem what are your thoughts on Amzela?
Hopefully less of the demon rum today...-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Look up top of this, to the right of where it says Post 144. There is a link that says ISO. That link ISOLATES the post author, so you can see my (and just my) posts in the thread all at once. On the absolute bottom of the page, you can also set up double or triple ISOs. A good way to read people's trajectories over the course of longer games/multiple days.In post 143, EGL wrote:ISO'd?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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who is the him I bolded here.In post 141, Amzela wrote:I wanna day Dici because I haven’t ISO’d Clem and gut feelings are scumreadinghim-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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gifs. Thanks for the third game info. What have you learned in terms of how to hunt scum?In post 136, Emperor flippyNips wrote:completly forgot what they’re called-
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Just because Im an IC, I will repeat these same thoughts -- they are right in my view, and how I would have answered the question. Again, there is no hard and fast rule and I have seen it done, but I strongly discourage it and think it detracts from the sorting, because the conversation becomes fairly mechanical and theoretical rather than sorting.In post 129, Loopdan wrote:
I won't make you wait for Teacher to reply to get your answer. The answer is no, you shouldn't self-vote for shits and giggles. It's almost always anti-town.In post 124, Amzela wrote:@Teacher, is it kosher to vote yourself in RVS for shits and giggles or is that still really scummy?
Obviously I thought it would help me sort players, and it was still an RVS wagon, so I didn't think it would be harmful. I gave it some thought. For example, I wouldn't have put myself at L-1 if Teacher wasn't already on the wagon, because he had already said he was drinking heavily, and if he was scum he might have been able to get away with a "drunk-hammer." Yes, I've seen that happen.
One last note then I'm moving on from this... I would not have done it if I was the IC, because it really isn't something we should be encouraging newer players to emulate. Clem and I were once in a game where Hark (who was a newer player and was town) scum-claimed in his first post and it destroyed any hope of town finding each other day1.
I wanted to add a bit on the "drunk-hammer" topic as well. Yes, I have seen scum lol-hammer. Ive even done it. But Ive seen it more often from vapid town OR town PRs looking to hide from a nightkill because of the suspicion they know it will cause. In other words, if only scum did scummy things, then mafia would be a heck of a lot easier game to play.
Finally, Im liking Dan's lampshady-ness about the scum aspect of the play and the thought process.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Im pushing back on this concept a bit. He only made two votes, and both were fairly early in terms of both the game -- by post 31. I think Clem may perhaps believe more in RWS than RVS --> my own acronym for random wagoning stage, where you hop around a bit to get actual reactions to pressure. I dont think hopping around on the first three pages is >rand scum behavior.In post 128, EGL wrote:yes his wagon jumping early on makes him look opportunistic to me (speaking of Clemency).
Im not moved either way out of rand on Clem yet. I get where he is coming from on Dan, but think its missing the forest for one tree. Im trying to get a better sense of his reads outside of the tunnel.
Fair enough, EGL?In post 139, Clemency wrote:Amzela seems like an innocent new player, I'm not v good at reading those-
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Flippy - since you quoted the thing two above this, I know you saw the question. Please answer this and Dans pending questions as well.In post 146, teacher wrote:
gifs. Thanks for the third game info. What have you learned in terms of how to hunt scum?In post 136, Emperor flippyNips wrote:completly forgot what they’re called-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Clem on you.In post 149, EGL wrote:@teacher are you asking my opinion on amzela or Clem his opinion on me?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Had you been following? This seems might fast to have seen that Dan was TTTT?In post 162, Child wrote:hi TTTT and flippy, hi everyone else. will be making catchup post later-
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How fast would you say you normally form reads?In post 164, Clemency wrote:
i don't think he's posted enough for me to give a clear read or anything yetIn post 160, teacher wrote:
Clem on you.In post 149, EGL wrote:@teacher are you asking my opinion on amzela or Clem his opinion on me?
but i like him-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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i think slightly town but I enjoy both. Newb 1882 and mini normal 2016 are good examples t and s respectively.In post 174, Loopdan wrote:@Teacher - I don't think I've read any of your games. Are you a better town or scum player?-
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i was having a mind meld w you on the initial reaction, but 186 didn’t swing it back to me. 169 (sorry no links from the airport) felt to me almost like someone who saw the disconnect between the skim claim and the reactions post too late after posting, so immediately said it didn’t work.
I’m missing Amzela - I think that slot needs some real time talk. Next time you come on, can you let me know a time to plan to meet you and just live chat? Like it’s now Saturday - let me know any time Monday that works for you and I can shake free for a bit.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Why these three people only? Why them in particular?
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Never mind saw 182. Trouble with phones
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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They are, and no worries at all. What I am about to say is just a general point that I have thought about saying once before this game, and this reminded me. I honestly don’t care here.In post 198, EGL wrote:Lol sorry one of those situations again where I was replying when you were posting. My bad. Smartphones are wonderful things, no?
The general/IC teaching point is that it is considered poor form to answer a question directed to someone else - the questioner may be seeking a specific response from a specific person. For example, sometimes I have seen people repeat questions pages apart to see if the answers stay the same or evolve. In that circumstance, though it may be tempting to be “helpful” and link back to the old answers, try not to. Likewise, I might have been aware of 182 and seeing if UR2 would point to that after his roadtrip or offer a different story (I wasn’t, but I could have been)
Again here no harm no foul at all because it was pure error. But a good opportunity to make a worthwhile general point.-
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Sorry just landed. I thought your explanation of hammer covered what was needed at the time, though I’m happy someone invited as I think it’s a bit early in the day and want to give time for dicing return and all. But thank you for emphasizing the intent point - I like that you even used the same bold I remembered from 1906. Now waiting on my wife for customsIn post 210, Loopdan wrote:Teacher, why are you IC-posting instead of commenting on the dici's L-1?-
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What should I have said that Dan didn’t say when he voted? I normally do add in there but he said it.In post 223, EGL wrote:Loop has a point. Teach should have commented on dici L-1.-
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For what it is worth, questions like this are why you have a PM button, as simply asking them can convey the same information. And to be clear, I am talking about PMing the mod, not me or any other player.In post 240, EGL wrote:Is it okay for us to say when someone last logged in?
But to answer the question, yes. I actually asked my mod, and the list-mod, the same question in essence during my newb game. Their answer was that non-substantive details like "was online" or "posted" was fine. See the discussions about activity section of the ongoing game rule, and on matters like this, dont hesitate to PM rather than post about it.-
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Perfect, see you Monday morning-ish your time. Thank you.In post 237, Amzela wrote:2 hours behind you if you’re in Bethesda, MD.-
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EGL talk to me about this. Can you show me anything in your history marrying the 1:1 position? Because I STRONGLY agree with it (and can provide several links) so am just curious, as I hadnt seen anybody else be this explicit about it before.In post 229, EGL wrote:@dicideaq when you get back who is one player on your wagon and one off you think is scummate? Why?-
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Again, what should I have said. The question was for you. I had nothing to say about Dici L-1 at the time. You clearly thought I *should* have had something to say. So what *should* I have had to say?In post 233, EGL wrote:@teacher loopdan doesn't know your thoughts-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Here are my thoughts: I was entirely comfortable/happy with the wagon in real time, but less so on reflection.In post 227, Loopdan wrote:You were the first vote on him after all, so I'm curious how that wagon forming up on an absent player works for you.
I think the major change from this afternoon to now is a realization of how much my rhythm of the game clock got screwed up by the holidays/vacation/rum/etc- I was taking long breaks away from the game and then spate posting two or three times a day when I normally do one. Basically it felt like several days had transpired since I began the wagon when it really had been only one -- and one weekend vacation day for everybody at that. So it does seem almost too fast, and certainly too fast for a hammer to be warranted.
EGL is my hardest townread, and Dan the second. They were on the wagon, so I thought the wagon was fairly strongly town. It also felt organic, like I could grok when people came onto it and why. Ordinarily, the lack of a counterwagon would have thrown me a bit. But here it didnt because the two most active players - Dan and EGL - are also my two townreads. So I perceived this as a situation where scum dont really have a push. The one exception to this sense and my overall happiness with the wagon this afternoon was UR2's Vote - that vote raised questions for me that would have been a possible clem defense if Dici flipped green.
Basically this afternoon I was happy with a Dici flip for a reason that seems callous -- if red, which I think is >rand, great. IF green, still not bad. I do believe in the 1:1 on and off wagon, so a green flip would have told me to reexamine my townreads. But given that Dici has not contributed any scumhunting OR (and the OR is in fact important here) claimed VLA to return at a date certain, even a green flip would have also removed a liability. This a lesson I learned a little later in my time on MS, but it makes sense to me. D1 and D2, you should of course try to scum hunt. But you should also get rid of town liabilities -- nullish folk that scum wont kill. Town liabilities should not make it to lylo because (1) they are an easy mislynch for scum to push and win the game, and (2) they havent been invested enough to have game-saving reads themselves. A discussion of this theory is here.
But the fact is that Dici still has time to come back, and I was not properly acknowledging the limited real life time that has passed.-
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So the 1:1 rule is statistically valid, as in meaningfully more likely than 2-on-the-wagon, which in turn is meaningfully more likely than 2-off, in a 7:2 game. So yes, I really really do incorporate such data into my reads post-flip (this was going to be part of the 'associations' point I made D2 in response to my own game-start questions)In post 250, EGL wrote:That and there was something about where scum typically appear on wagons, but I can't remember the vote numbers. Is voting analysis in that regard still a thing?
As for position, I believe the third slot is considered scummiest -- "Rule of three" -- but I dont put as much stock in that. It is slightly +rand scum, but not enough to be a valid difference.-
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For whatever its worth, when gambling, play the odds. If something is true a majority of the time, then at least factor it into your decision-making.In post 255, Loopdan wrote:For whatever it's worth I'm not a big fan of "one on, one off." Yes, it's probably true the majority of the time on day1 in Newbie Q games, but there are exceptions and I'd advise not gambling a lynch on it being true, especially with lurkers who aren't voting.
(and I say this after having just won a lylo by lynching the second OFF D-1 wagon player, which only occurs in >10% of games -- Bottom line, take wagon position into account, but only as one piece of data to be weighed like the rest of it).-
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Dan's question was in 153 asking for you to post reactions to the game live.In post 292, Emperor flippyNips wrote:In post 159, teacher wrote:
Flippy - since you quoted the thing two above this, I know you saw the question. Please answer this and Dans pending questions as well.In post 146, teacher wrote:
gifs. Thanks for the third game info. What have you learned in terms of how to hunt scum?In post 136, Emperor flippyNips wrote:completly forgot what they’re called
Well the only thing I can think of is just process of elimination like I said I have a very genuine town read on you right now and loop I have a tr on cos of the self vote & his back & forth with Clem. I don’t believe I saw another question, I thought I answered everything else
Your answer - "process" of elimination - also didnt answer my question -- "how to hunt". My question is HOW you eliminate scum - why you have a TR on me, or any other reads at all that you provide after answering Dan's request for reactions.-
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Then why did you follow him onto that wagon rather than push him? I just find it odd youd join a wagon with your biggest SR without saying there has been an evolution.In post 287, Child wrote:
not really. none of his posts are that amazing to change my mind, still a scumread. it seems that he is doing some sort of play but i dont really understand it at all.In post 268, teacher wrote:@child - have your views on Clem evolved? Where/why?-
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All conversation should be in thread. IF youve developed a relationship with someone to the point you have discords, etc, just make sure ANYTHING game relevant stays in there.In post 285, EGL wrote:That's supposed to happen in the thread, right?-
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Since this is the second time this has come up (EGL was the first, I think, with Dici being 50.50), I just wanted to note the actual statistics.In post 281, Clemency wrote:i just think she's 51% town
For a random town player in this game, any other slot is 75% likely to be town. Thus, calling someone 50/50 scum or town is actually a fairly strong scumread. I know you all dont mean your phrasing this way, at least I dont think you do, but wanted to point out the gap between statistics and the expressions in use.-
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So, general advice, if youre town (which I actually think you are) --> Dont care about the hole youve dug. Ask questions, interact with slots, share your honest reactions (including not only defenses but suspicions -- OK, you think Dici may be scared town, who do you think was pushing them with a motive rather than genuine suspicion?) and try to advance the game as best you can. Town will kill town. That is inherent in the design. Town starts with more time, scum starts with more information. The key is who wins the time v. information trade.In post 269, Amzela wrote:TIL don’t defend anyone.
Any advice on how to defend myself and get myself out of this hole I’ve dug? From anyone.
TL/DR - Dont defend yourself. Dont care about the hole. Just play - including sharing your own thoughts and reactions. The more people know you, the better they can make judgments.-
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Too Long Didnt Read (an attempt to summarize, often as long as the thing summarized in my case )In post 300, EGL wrote:What is TL/DR?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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But you had earlier said your scumreads were Dici and Clem, with a lean on Dan. You unvoted Dici and immediately jumped to a wagon that had momentum, but was not even on your past radar. So youd have to have gotten over the Clem read, be willing to join a wagon with him on it, AND gotten over the Dan read, all without commenting on either your Clem or Dan evolution.In post 303, Child wrote:
i don't find it weird at all. i have two scumreads, i am gonna vote on either one, even if one is voting on another.In post 296, teacher wrote:
Then why did you follow him onto that wagon rather than push him? I just find it odd youd join a wagon with your biggest SR without saying there has been an evolution.In post 287, Child wrote:
not really. none of his posts are that amazing to change my mind, still a scumread. it seems that he is doing some sort of play but i dont really understand it at all.In post 268, teacher wrote:@child - have your views on Clem evolved? Where/why?-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Sorry, we now have two threads going. I actually dont mind this so much (the treating Am/Clem as separate reads) so much as what appeared to be an opportunistic wagon jump that was entirely inconsistent with your top 3 scumreads from just a few pages earlier. If that many people are on your scumscope, you might want to get it checked since htere are only 2 in the game, meaning you should target at most 3 reads....In post 305, Child wrote:i am reading them as separate people and isolating them-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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Whole Board Reads (in order from 0)
Spoiler: Child
Spoiler: URAP2
Spoiler: Flippy
Spoiler: dici
Spoiler: EGL
Im still tired from the travel and dont want to do Amzela until after we talk in the morning anyways, so I will wrap it up tomorrow. Short version:
Teacher
EGL
Dan
URAP2
_____________Sort Zone
Clem
Amzela
Flippy
____________ Scum Zone
Child
Dici-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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@Clem?In post 170, teacher wrote:
How fast would you say you normally form reads?In post 164, Clemency wrote:
i don't think he's posted enough for me to give a clear read or anything yetIn post 160, teacher wrote:
Clem on you.In post 149, EGL wrote:@teacher are you asking my opinion on amzela or Clem his opinion on me?
but i like him-
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Might be right -- the new system is 36 rather than 48, but its half time on weekends so I didnt know how it was running -- full time Friday and half for the weekend (would be when I asked). Either way, figured it couldnt hurt to mention, and Plot would handle it as the great mod he is - accurately.In post 315, EGL wrote:I expected his prod to come at 9am tomorrow.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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WIM - Want it More. An expression used slightly more commonly on other sites than here. It originally comes from the desire towns normally have more than scum to actually find information and solve the game, whereas scum already have it solved and are just trying to hide. But it also has a connotation of I (slot 1) want slot 2 to continue posting more, because they are helping me and the game state.In post 316, EGL wrote:What are WIM and WIME, respectively?
WIME - my bad pun/joke.-
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teacher Jack of All Trades
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EH, do keep in minds that the odds of correctly calling a team are like 4%, and I have yet to do it (though I regularly try).
I do want to talk with you after I talk with Amzela though. After I went through the ISO I have a lot less suspicions than I had before, so we should hash my points out with yours after the fact.-
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