Newbie 1910: Aerial Photography [Game Over!]

[GrandWazoo]

Greetings all.

VOTE: moonythedwarf

Correct term is "little person."

[GrandWazoo]

Hell there, this is my third(?) game I think in this site

You don't say. I see like 10 games in your profile.

[GrandWazoo]

Hell there, this is my third(?) game I think in this site

You don't say. I see like 10 games in your profile.

Stalker alert, I did sign up for some games but I only got posts in 2 real mafia games and 1 from gmm

I just looked at your join date and wondered why you're still playing newbie games

[GrandWazoo]

Mod - can we have a vote count? I wanna see another purty picture

[GrandWazoo]

can you newbies get avatars to make it easier to recognize all of you?

Please

So we are only waiting for JoeyG177 here for the entire roster correct?

VOTE: JoeyG177 Bell ringing, are you in for the ride?

Looks like Joey hasn't signed in since the 24th - memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=32263 - what do you expect this vote to do?

Mod - can we have a vote count? I wanna see another purty picture

feeling 'hmm' on this, on one hand there really isn't much happening in this game to engage with yet but on the other I feel like asking for a VC at this time is posting just to post. Any thoughts on myself and the worst hopping along with your moony vote?

Frankly I'm bored. And I do like the aerial photos. No, I dont draw any inferences from your vote although I too would like moony and compfan to add avis.

[GrandWazoo]

about the logic behind that, people asking for mechanics rather than focusing on what's going on more often than not are scum gaining time

1) there was nothing "going on" at the time and 2) I like aerial photography. It appeals to my aesthetic sensibilities and I make no apologies for that. If you find that scummy, go ahead and vote me.

I don't know what you mean by "scum gaining time." Scum love inertia. Any discussion is better than no discussion at all from the town POV, even if you think it's weird.

[GrandWazoo]

I think I get it now Junko. You think I made a dummy post to avoid being prodded. I've explained my reasons behind that post, and the fear of getting prodded was definitely not among them. I was bored, and was trying to jump start a game and get it out of RVS (which you dislike anyway). Which is what happened.

I dislike inactive players as much as anyone, but modkilling rather replacing them is at best anti-town and at worst scumthink.

[GrandWazoo]

I'm gonna drop a readlist because I like readlists. They kinda help me calibrate and are a good point of reference for me when I have further thoughts on someone's slot (like if I thought "oh hey that post guiltylion made looks quite scummy", I like being able to swing back to a snippet of where my brain was at last time I thought through everything so I can check myself back - "no maybe he's just town", or "wow maybe he is scum!")

I appreciate the vote of confidence and all, but I try to resist reads this early in the game, esp. with several players having barely posted at all. In my experience at least this leads to confbias --> tunneling --> mislynches. Junko is a prime example of a player whose individual posts give a whiff of scum, but whose overall behavior to this point does not.

Which is not to say that readlists are bad at all, and if they help your thought process (and town's) then by all means do them. My approach is to withhold judgment until all players are accounted for, do a re-read of the game and then develop leads. That way I can gauge players' behavior in a macro way without getting overly invested in NAI details.

[GrandWazoo]

Ok so i guess my post didnt go through. Aww.

Can we get some more votes on this tool?

[GrandWazoo]

Easy...voted you in RVS and haven't seen any reason to unvote you. Your OMGUS vote did you no favors.

[GrandWazoo]

Easy...voted you in RVS and haven't seen any reason to unvote you. Your OMGUS vote did you no favors.

[GrandWazoo]

You could start by explaining what "self-conflicting card" you think we're playing.

[GrandWazoo]

I'm being wagonned by the two players who don't have avatars. Significant or nah?

[GrandWazoo]

Between 82 and 84 I still like ChanScum but I would be willing to switch to mooney

Do it, yellow. Dooo eeeeet.

[GrandWazoo]

OK here are my reasons for lynching moony:

Ok so i guess my post didnt go through. Aww.

This is annoying as fuck.

Voting for being a derp is rude.
Aaaanyways, why are you so insistent on voting me in the first place? Hmm?
VOTE: GrandWazoo

OMGUS

It wasnt really anything important, just a "bah i'm alive and have nothing to add" type post.

This is even worse than 66. Rather than come up with a valuable contribution, or even bothering to pull some weak rationalization out his ass, we get "Bah!"

Moony is either scum or totally useless town. Either way we are better off without him.

[GrandWazoo]

Honestly 92could be scum trying to get town lynched.

I guess there's only one way to find out. Better a mislynch than no-lynch which is where this day is headed.

[GrandWazoo]

How is this day headed towards a no lynch? :p

The way this game is going it wouldn't surprise me.

[GrandWazoo]

@the worst - you seem more interested in confirming me as town (I was the only "townread" in your 56 readslist) than in pushing moony as scum (whom you're still voting). Has your read on me changed? Is your moony vote a holdover from RVS or do you think he's the best lynch candidate? If not, then who is?

the worst, I want to townread but I get the sense he's

mostly sitting back and asking questions

- which is fine at this stage and may be a bit of IC playstyle as well? but overall feels a bit safe. 88 and 95 in particular stood out in this regard, like they're not bad questions on the whole but

aren't hard at all to toss out as scum

.

I confess this occurred to me as well. You might be innocently fulfilling your IC obligations here, but you could also be scum subtly directing noobtown. Shouldn't we keep both possibilities in mind?

Spoiler:

In my only other game here, I voted a player in RVS, then stuck with that vote as it became clear he was active lurker. The IC in that game jumped on me in defense of the lurker. The lurker was eventually lynched, flipped scum and his IC scumbuddy was lynched the following day.

[GrandWazoo]

Actually there's a 25% chance you're scum. I know I'm town, hence there are only 8 players with unknown alignments. As for your question, I'll answer it after you answer the questions I posed to you r.e. moony.

[GrandWazoo]

If I had to classify my playstyle it would be impatient and frustrated. This is generally a town trait though not necessarily AI. If I were scum I'd probably be sitting back and twirling my mustache while watching town spin its wheels.

Actually since everyone "knows that they're town" 100% of players are of known.alignments.

I mean from each town players POV. I only know my own alignment. That leaves 8 unknowns. Scum obviously know who's town.

[GrandWazoo]

If I had to classify my playstyle it would be impatient and frustrated. This is generally a town trait though not necessarily AI. If I were scum I'd probably be sitting back and twirling my mustache while watching town spin its wheels.

Actually since everyone "knows that they're town" 100% of players are of known.alignments.

I mean from each town players POV. I only know my own alignment. That leaves 8 unknowns. Scum obviously know who's town.

My point is that everyone will say that they are town. You saying you are town says nothing and moves the game nowhere. And your assertation is incorrect and if anything, preys on new players unability to think critically.

Still missing my point but w/e. Why haven't you voted moony yet?

[GrandWazoo]

Sigh. OK yellow, every townie (assuming he's read his PM and isn't a total freaking idiot)

knows he is town

. So of the

unknown

player pool (8) he knows that 2 are scum and 6 are town.

I think you're being intentionally obtuse. I've made my case on moony, such as it is. You have indicated a willingness to vote him but haven't done so. Why not? Because I want you to?

[GrandWazoo]

Grandwazoo leaning scum I can't see Grandwazoo busing his teammate so I can't see him on the same team as moony sadly, his eagerness to finish someone who barely posted screams scum to me

By this logic we can only push players who actively play. Note to scum: keep quiet and Junko will totes townread you.

the worst null you've been asking a lot but I would like a more concrete vision of the game from an IC, I know it's still early but some words of wisdom from your continuos questioning would be nice

Questioning is kinda his thing, decisive action not so much.

I think that moony might be town and 1 mafia is on the wagon pushing for an easy day 1 lynch.

Moony has been at L-2 forever. If it were easy, it would've happened already. To say a player might be town because there's a wagon on him is ... special.

As for GW I ditto what JunkoChan said about him being too eager.

I'm pushing a player I think is scum. That's how I play mafia. If I seem too eager it's only because most other players aren't doing anything to actively catch scum. If you think I'm wrong about moony, show me where and I might change my mind. "I think he might be town" is not going to do it.

[GrandWazoo]

[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=10642449#p10642449]

By this logic we can only push players who actively play. Note to scum: keep quiet and Junko will totes townread you.

You see, this is the kind of poison scum would say.

1. the worst specifically asked me for "posting players" nad tbh I can't have an opinion for players who aren't even playing the game, I left a few questions for them but I guess they will be replaced before they can answer

2. Taking action is not the same thing you are doing, you are pushing a lynch and saying WE GOT NO TIME, when that's far from truth

Now I'm more inclined to lynch you

putting my votes where my mouth is from now on. VOTE: GrandWazoo

Good for you Junko
Your logic is still crap but at least you're doing something

[GrandWazoo]

GrandWazoo, sorry if this is a bit of a strange question. would you consider yourself more like, sassy/prickly than you normal are, this game? I'd be interested in heading why if so.

Again with the questions...
Nope, this is pretty much how I roll. Of course if the game were more active I might not be so provocative.
Do you think this passive Socratic-method style of yours is productive? Is there a point of diminishing returns?

[GrandWazoo]

Alright I'll talk you through what's on my mind. You're tied for 2nd highest poster at the time of writing so I feel like I should be feeling more comfortable about my read of you.

I had a cursory read of your last game and noticed a couple of differences, which made me curious.

firstly, you have less of a uhh approachable/flexible tone here. in your other game I got the feeling you engaged pretty well with the rest of the list, though I agree your playstyle is naturally inquisitive/somewhat prickly. some of your posts like this

Ok so i guess my post didnt go through. Aww.

Can we get some more votes on this tool?

here feel kind of faked-aggressive which pinged me to think about later.

Well that game was moving along much more briskly, plus we had a guy who replaced in who was doing the "heavy lifting" and was more aggressive in that game than I am in this one.

Yes, that was somewhat feigned reaction to moony but it (and his followup to you) was quite scummy to me.

Given your approach to YellowSnow in your last game, I'm slightly surprised to see you haven't made any comments on Junko's more recent posting which I think is pretty newbtown-indicative. Do you agree here?

Yes. My view on yellow evolved that game from newbscum to newbtown, which is why I didn't opportunistically jump on his wagon there and don't scumread Junko here.

From your ISO it felt as though you were casting kinda slight suspicions there, without doubling down wrt voting, and I was surprised to see you didn't reevaluate your own read on her after she started posting more.

Not sure what suspicion-casting you're referring to? If you mean my asking why she was still playing newbie games, I was curious and she answered satisfactorily.

I agree he's wolfy but unfortunately pushes like yours against Moony make you harder to read. there's a cliche that "scum push low hanging fruit", but I wholeheartedly disagree that this is a reliable tell. town push scummy low hanging fruit just as often as scum push unaligned low hanging fruit. if like, Moony is suddenly confirmed as town or something, I'd be really curious to see where you go next.

Now here's where that other game might be instructive. I tenaciously kept my vote on Flippynips even as micc chainsawed away. I didn't have a read on Flippy either way but the fact that micc alone was defending an obvious activelurker spoke volumes to me.

I really don't see moony getting confirmed town. My hope at this point is that he's replaced by a more engaged player.

having said that I don't think I'm actually convincing myself to scumread you. more like I'm seeing unexpected quirks in your play, and I'm curious to get inside your head a little bit more. it's intriguing to hear that you don't think this is all that different from your last game.

Again, every game is different, and I tend to adapt my playstyle to the occasion. In that game we had at least 3 players reach L-1 on the first day. Here we can't even get a proper wagon rolling. And you don't want to see what's inside my head brah. It's nasty in there.

[GrandWazoo]

I definitely think his push on Moony at the expense of pushing other slots has been a little vexing

If you're saying I'm tunneling a dry well, you maybe right. If there were more obvious lynch candidates I'd be pushing them. For now I'll stick with the player who is either scum or useless to town. That's still moony.

I'll add that I don't consider it my obligation to look town as hell here, it's to win the game. If being an aggro prick helps me reach my wincon, great. If that means being more passive and letting other players work it out, that's fine too. If I'm lynched or NKd and that provides valuable intel to town, I have no problem with that either.

[GrandWazoo]

You think too much of me kid - I ain't that clever.

[GrandWazoo]

Welcome Brass, I like the cut of your jib.

[GrandWazoo]

Actually, while I'm thinking of it, GrandWazoo, can I get your thoughts on the game so far?

You know, reads, feelings, confessions to being a cold blooded murderer if that's the case.

The game so far has until very recently been a frustrating grind, low signal-to-noise ratio, lots of psycho-meta stuff, not much analysis. This is my 2d newbie game and I gather this is to be expected. I'm delighted to see CJ's slot actually contributing and I'm hoping moony's replacement is as engaged as Brass.

You're right about the RVS wagon - for me that was almost by default since what little we got from that slot was hot garbage and I didn't see a great alternative.

The murder charge was dropped. I plead guilty on the lesser included offense of being prickly and provocative.

VOTE: Unvote

[GrandWazoo]

Imma wait til Yottacat shows up and redeems that slot. Or not.

Not feeling the GLscum vibe. Nineja seemed the better choice.

[GrandWazoo]

Is this some radical new therapy? Your voting pattern is making me dizzy.

[GrandWazoo]

All I got in this world is my balls and my vote. And I don't break 'em for no one.

[GrandWazoo]

My best argument for the case is on 131, you see, opposite to nineja's logic against me, the post I quoted from him has an emotional tone, a frustrating tone in fact, and then he twisted my words to post what should never be posted in any mafia game: "this person will townread you if you afk"

I can elaborate more on this if you need to but I think I would just be repeating myself

For context, here is what I was responding to Junko: "Grandwazoo leaning scum I can't see Grandwazoo busing his teammate so I can't see him on the same team as moony sadly, his eagerness to finish someone who barely posted screams scum to me"

My response may have been overly flippant, but the above statement translates to: the guy who's barely posted can't be scum, therefore GrandWazoo must be. Aside from using "leaning scum" and "screams scum" in the same sentence, you're assuming moony is town because he's barely posted. This doesn't make any sense to me.

I get that you don't like me, or my playstyle, but your reaction is 100% emotion and 0% logic.

[GrandWazoo]

Yeah, I'm not feeling any better about this slot. It's not like this game is Infinite Jest ffs...

VOTE: Yotta

[GrandWazoo]

I stated my reasons for lynching moony, several times. I was hoping Yotta would be an improvement. A very low bar that she still can't clear.

Stop with the socratic method crap TW. What scummier stuff have you seen? What associations have you found? Why is GL the scummiest?

If Yotta flips green then we'll still have gotten more information that we've gotten from that slot all game. Not optimal but better than nothing.

[GrandWazoo]

Sounds like a compelling case on Nineja. I could easily get behind that wagon. You were on it for about 2 seconds then voted GL because Brass was pissed he was still riding his RVS vote... wait you're voting Nineja again!

This isn't reflected in the latest VC.

I'm not a fan of lynching inactive players or policy lynches in general, but I'm even less a fan of active lurkers, and even less a fan of those like Nineja who assume lurkers can't be scum (and players who go after them must be). If I see some content from Yotta then I'll reconsider.

I'm not surprised you're not being engaged with. Folks eventually tire of answering rhetorical questions and tune them out. This is the "diminishing returns" I was talking about.

[GrandWazoo]

Fuck it can't afford to wait for Yotta.

VOTE: Nineja

@Yellow, don't expect anything from compfan.

[GrandWazoo]

Pretty sure I've received more scrutiny, criticism, analysis and even psychoanalysis than all other players combined. And I've been completely transparent in my motives and actions. Just ask yourself: "Does scum ever act this way?" Maybe really stupid scum, but I don't think that describes my play this game. Snarky, aggressive, occasionally combative, definitely. But not stupid.

[GrandWazoo]

What's more scummy Brass, active lurking or pushing active lurkers?

[GrandWazoo]

It's pushing them. They're easy "scum reads"

They're also anti-town. If no one pushed them scum would lurk indefinitely.

[GrandWazoo]

I'm just going to say I'm town.
So I wil VOTE: GW

So this is the catch-up post we were promised? I miss moony already.

[GrandWazoo]

Get with the program TW - the more active in this game you are, the scummier you look.

[GrandWazoo]

Now you know how I've felt this entire game.

[GrandWazoo]

Not that it'll help, since town has played terribly and is being openly taunted by scum.

[GrandWazoo]

Whoa. I need to go to the beach more often. Need to eat & process all that's happened.

[GrandWazoo]

Yeah I'm fine where my vote is. Junk is all noise no signal.

[GrandWazoo]

Help me to understand why LAL is a scum play on Friday and a town play on Sunday? Is compfan really scummier than moony/Yotta? They're all equally lurkish and useless to town. Also: are we just buying Junk's doc claim on spec? IME it's the go-to FC for cornered scum and in this setup the safest to make. TW recently made a compelling case on Nineja; now despite Junk's over-the-top play he is dispensing strategic advice as if the doc claim is 100% legit and his Nineja case never happened.

[GrandWazoo]

I mean that slot has produced some 100 posts since I cased it. his initial posting was pinging me but I think the second onslaught was really very towny. I also have no interest in lynching a claimed TPR day one who I'm no longer hard scumreading (for the record: if I was still heavily scumreading him, I would be handling this pretty differently).

Sure, and like 3/4 of those posts have been of the go-fuck-yourself variety. Not that I relish the thought of lynching a possible doc, but it's a relatively safe FC, easy to retrofit by claiming to have protected players who weren't NKd, and a known ploy to out actual PRs. And I'm still wondering why wagoning one lurker was scummy 2 days ago but wagoning another lurker is fine now.

[GrandWazoo]

Not saying you buy the low-hanging-fruit argument yourself, my question is why the 180 on policy-lynches in general and why compfan is the better candidate now than moony was then. As for Junk a quick scan of his iso gave me a headache. All over the place, aggro as hell. I'll give it another try after some sleep and a gallon of coffee.

[GrandWazoo]

So what exactly does V/LA mean when you're still posting? These all appeared

after

Yyotta supposedly went V/LA.

Also the reason I'm V/LA is I'm trying to read the entirety of The Bee Movie script for no reason

So

should I just be inactive and wait at hell or should I be active

I hope I get better luck this time (last time I replaced I was immediately lynched)

10% of idea of what the fuck is going on

So GW is saying some scum is desperately making us thinking GW is scum

I mean this horseshit is bad enough under normal circumstances, but to do it when you're supposedly out of commission is like active lurking on steroids.

[GrandWazoo]

Vacation Limited Access generally means less posting.

As a side note, I generally just make the prod timer 1.5x the normal when someone is V/LA and I am modding, some people may be more forgiving than I am. I do not recall how the newbie game rules handle VLA, but it absolutely does not mean you should never post, nor does it excuse you from posting all together.

OK but what's to keep a player from using it as a Get Out Of Jail Free card or just to avoid scrutiny? Especially when said player posts more

after

going V/LA than before.

[GrandWazoo]

Yep, that's 5. We just lynched a lurker. Yay?

[GrandWazoo]

Look at the table on P1 yellow. With Junk Doc, this has to be A3 with scum roleblocker.

Yyotta's V/LA should be up by now. She needs to start playing this fucking game.

Need to read some ISOs later and figure out what to do...

[GrandWazoo]

OK I'll be honest - I can talk myself into believing almost every player here is scum.

moony/Yyotta - total black hole of lurkmatter. Moony's was bad, Yyotta if anything has been worse.

brass - railed against the moonywagon as RVS, which wasn't random anymore by the time he replaced in. Said lynching lurkers was worse than lurking itself, and joined my wagon expressly because I was pushing a lurker. Later joined the lynch of compfan, the lurkiest slot of the bunch.

Junk - TW (IC and now-dead Cop) presented a strong case on Nineja. Junk replaced in and proceeded to add like 15 pages in a couple hours, mostly confrontational and distracting hot takes. D2 he's already voted twice.

GL - has been irrationally supportive of me so far, this always gives me the uncomfortable feeling of being pocketed.

The two players I can't see pushing atm

Yellow - The only one I've played with before, once, when we were both town. His playstyle is forthright but at times annoyingly obtuse, as we have also seen this game. I don't see much difference in his play between the two games.

Junko - She's been hard-tunneling me from the jump, yet her overall game has been town as hell. Can be reasoned out of a position she wasn't reasoned into, a trait rarely seen from scum.

Of course I can make town cases for most of y'all too. Junk of course has the virtue of un-cc'd Doc, and his recent play has been less aggro and ad hom. Brass and GL are experienced and appear to be scumhunting in earnest. The exception here is the moony/Yyotta slot. The only town argument I could make is the old standby "but scum couldn't be this overtly bad could they?" In a newbie game, sure they could.

VOTE: Yyotta

[GrandWazoo]

GW also worth another look, 580 is a bad post with the green compufan flip and 630 is kind of a shotgun of shade towards every slot (including Junk) with no real direction behind it. GW can you quote where you think I'm being "irrationally" supportive of you? I feel like the only thing I remember was answering the worst's questions about why I was townreading you.

My post r.e. you is mostly a reflection of past experience - more than once I've been suckered by flattering scum, only to learn that I'd been manipulated into defending them against my better judgment. It's not a fun feeling and I've been hypersensitive to the possibility ever since.

The post was less intended to "throw shade" and more a reflection of the fact that no slot strikes me as overtly scummy. We can all talk ourselves into bad scumreads.

yyotta's a possibility but I mislynched them in my last game after they were lurky most of the game and making semi-unreadable worthless posts.

then again, still could have been a WK

GrandWazoo can you give reasons from this game only why you think YellowSnow is town and not worth pushing? "not seeing a difference" between this and his last town game doesn't really cut it for me and I wouldn't describe him being "obtuse" as why he's been scumread

This is regarding several reactions to yellow's failure to comprehend the 9 setups, which was definitely an obtuse oversight but not scummy imo. Junko expressed surprise that such a "cold minded" and "smart" player as yellow would commit such a faux pas (Junk agreed). That exchange between me and yellow about scum vs. town probabilities alone should render both Junko's adjectives non-operational. OTOH it's not the kind of inane argument I'd expect scum to actively engage in the first place. I get why you're scumreading yellow, but if you look at that other game (1906) you'll see the same kind of behavior.

pedit: I see Yyotta's being replaced. Jesus that slot is cursed.

[GrandWazoo]

@GrandWazoo I don't like metagaming individual players, there's merit in looking for player's past games to try to catch how they play as scum or town, but playstyles may change with experience, for instance I believe I change my approach to mafia games every other game, you get new ideas from each game.

on topic, if Yellow wasn't acting like he is right now I would remove my vote, but more often than not, noob scums crack like this to pressure

Of course one prior game doesn't give me a "meta" on yellow, it just happens to be one more game than I've played vs. anyone else here. I'm mainly pushing back on the notion that he's crafty scum. He could be scum, but my limited experience in both games suggests he's more guileless than crafty.

[GrandWazoo]

GW defending Yellow (who is scum) is bad look for GW.

I am not defending him, only pointing out that yellow isn't the criminal mastermind you seem to think he is.

GW, if you're town, you have had completely wrong reads the entire game so far, lol.

I am town and you have had town and scum reads on every literally player in this game. Not to mention lolhammering compfan. Bad look bruh.

[GrandWazoo]

VOTE: Unvote

Please be good vesper7.

[GrandWazoo]

This is regarding several reactions to yellow's failure to comprehend the 9 setups, which was definitely an obtuse oversight but not scummy imo. Junko expressed surprise that such a "cold minded" and "smart" player as yellow would commit such a faux pas (Junk agreed). That exchange between me and yellow about scum vs. town probabilities alone should render both Junko's adjectives non-operational. OTOH it's not the kind of inane argument I'd expect scum to actively engage in the first place. I get why you're scumreading yellow, but if you look at that other game (1906) you'll see the same kind of behavior.

I got the sense he was faking that slip to try to come off as newbie town - I don't see how it relates to the exchange you had about scum v town probabilities. The only thing I see out of Yellow is attempts to make other players look bad and plays at self-defense. Especially considering his D1 commentary on you, I still can't grok your townread on him here.

Lemme put it this way: Yellow isn't the kind to fake slips. He just slips. When he attacks, he does so on specious or downright unintelligible grounds. When he gets defensive, he flails. This isn't fake newb to me, but plain old newb. My initial read on him in that previous game (I know, it was only one game, but it's consistent with his play in this one) was like yours, newbscum. But I and others came to the conclusion that he was just confused.

and you kinda dodged my question about your callout of me being irrationally supportive. Where in this game did you get the sense that I was doing that? Like I was townreading you when you were the main wagon of the day, but I don't believe I fought all that hard against your wagon

also why the unvote in 663?

In 39 and 103 and again in 138 you seemed a bit overeager to townread me, then in 140 and 143 you seized on yellow's responses to me regarding theory, an exchange I found annoying but more yellowderpy than scummy. I'm probably the irrational one, paranoid about being pocketed based on painful prior experience. Not a big deal.

I unvoted because Yyotta's replacement was announced. Call it a gesture of hope that the new guy will finally help sort that slot. I'm verrrrry interested in what this latest replacement has to say.

[GrandWazoo]

If I had the time, patience, and fucks to give, I'd ISO Junk to see how many players he's scumread, along with the alleged scumteams. Since I don't, I'll just say Junk has successfully gone through every possible permutation.

Junk is like a tweaked out chimpanzee with a TEC-9, spraying lead everywhere and claiming he's hit a scumbag with every round.

pedit: the Stalin line was pretty good though.

[GrandWazoo]

Junko, I'm not saying yellow isn't scum. As I've explained several times now, I haven't seen sufficient evidence that he is. All I've seen is a continuation of the same kind of goofball behavior I saw in the previous game where he was town. Since we really have to get today's lynch right, we need more than GL's case - which is compelling but not conclusive imo - and Junk's argument by relentless repetition.

Also, what the hell happened at the end of your sentence?

[GrandWazoo]

I refer you to the setup template:

	A	B	C
Mafia	Mafia Roleblocker	Mafia Rolecop	Mafia Goon
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Neapolitan	Town Cop and Town Tracker	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor	Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker	Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Row 3	Town Cop and Town Doctor	Town Neapolitan and Town Doctor	Town Tracker and Town Doctor

From the

town perspective

, there are nine possible setups. But from the

scum perspective

there are only three - A, B and C. If one scum is RB then A, if rolecop then B, if both are goons it's C. Now let's say you're a cornered scum at L-1, and being forced to fakeclaim. Which do you pick? Doctor seems a bit risky since from town's perspective there are 4 scenarios (A2, A3, B3, C3) in which you could be CC'd and strung up. But scum know there are only 3 scenarios at play, either A1-3, B1-3 or C1-3. Thus the Doc claim is twice as likely to be CC'd in scenario A than in B or C. Specifically if one of you is a RB (A) then Doc is the last PR you'd claim. Only if one of you is rolecop (b) or both of you are goons (C) is Doc the percentage play.

[GrandWazoo]

@Junko (and everyone else): I meant to hit "save draft" but apparently hit "submit" instead. I was planning to expand on why Junk is

not

confirmed as we are assuming.

For example, say Junk is one of two mafia goons, as in column C. To claim Doc he does not have the

44.4%

chance (4 out of 9) of being CC'd, but just a

16.7%

chance (1 in 6). Only the actual Doc could CC. The same holds true if one of the scum is mafia rolecop (column B). Note that there is a Cop (i.e. the worst, the only 100% definite role) in all 3 columns, but only in column A are there 2 possible Docs. That means if Junk were to FC Doc, the one column he would

not

pick from is A - the one with the mafia roleblocker. Yet column A is the one Junk wants us to think we're in, since he claims he was roleblocked. In short, it's the highest-percentage FC available to Junk, which is why I suspect he calculated it well ahead of having to claim.

But think about the likelihood of a) one scum targeting TW for the NK; b) town!Junk targeting TW for protection; and c) the other scum roleblocking town!Junk. This highly improbable scenario is exactly what he wants us to believe! Compare that to the likelihood of scum!Junk successfully FC (83.3%). And even if Junk is CC'd by the actual Doc, he probably thinks he can bury that claim in verbiage and hostility, as he has done to town all game.

TL;DR



VOTE: Junk

[GrandWazoo]

but even then, Junk claimed doc before the cop flip, from scum!Junk point of view in the situation you are presenting he would have a 33% chance to hit composition 3C, you could argue that in his position L-1 a gamble would be better than nothing tho, but still hard to pull of and easier to do by claiming vanilla townie, but vanilla townie is a misslynchable role.

As much as I would like to believe that Junk is scum I don't think he is.

Just ask yourself which is more likely: the sequence of events that Junk wants us to believe, or the scenario I described? The first is highly unlikely. The second is not only far more likely, but the optimal play for cornered scum.

[GrandWazoo]

waaait wait wait

i get it now

if we're playing in setup C-1

there is only town cop, and no other town or scum power roles

so i can be scum if we're playing in setup C-1

apologies, i didnt rly read all of that

okay then thats valid i guess

still, ur just trying to be a hero by giong against the consensus

i havent been scummy, you WANT me to be scum, so u can be a hero, GW

Not trying to be a hero, just trying to win the damn game. Which we will not do unless we lynch a scumbag now.

By scumbag I mean Junk. He's trying to look town by sheer volume of posts, but in actuality he's just trying to distract town.

[GrandWazoo]

Junk-chan-kawaii-desu

There is this thing called distancing

Where two scum buddies want to fool the town

That they aren't scum buddies

By doing stuff that, for example, baka-chans like you would read as not mafia/mafia, such as, for example, voting each other

There is also this thing called bussing. Which is what you are trying to do with yellow.

p-edit so scum!yellowsnow is sacrificing Grandwazoo while being on the spotlight himself? to get town credit? MAYBE but if we keep going like this I'm get drunk with all this wine

Girl

YellowSnow is 100% the lynch today

His vote really doesn't matter

Nobody will follow him

He's not "sacrificing" GrandWazoo...

Maybe GW could be town after all. But not because of scum!YellowSnow voting him

The fact that yellow is voting me and not you speaks volumes, not about me but about him and you.

[GrandWazoo]

Maybe you should sit one out yellow.
You're out of your element.

[GrandWazoo]

There is also this thing called bussing. Which is what you are trying to do with yellow.

He wasn't scumreading Yellow before

this is TMI that Yellow is scum

ISO GW yourselves, and see that he never called him scum before this post

I said I never said yellow wasn't scum.

Lying scum lies.

[GrandWazoo]

Junk 24 hours ago:

Alright GW is town.

He isn't the droid we're looking for.

It's just YellowSnow + YottaCat, I guess.

Junk now:

@GW your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum your scum

Since the Pat-Bolts is a blowout, Imma take some time and ISO Junk for all the flipflopping he's done this game.

It's gonna be HILARIOUS

[GrandWazoo]

Junk ISO is like the internal dialogue of a schizophrenic. I need some lithium.

[GrandWazoo]

A lynch has been achieved!

VC 1.FINAL

votes

[5] computerfan0

:

YellowSnow 160, the worst 444, GuiltyLion 471, brassherald 540, Junk 575

[2] GrandWazoo

:

computerfan0 87, YyottaCat 256

[1] Junk

:

GrandWazoo 216

[1] Not Voting

:

JunkoChan 574

Which of the mislynch voters is scum? Yellow's vote was basically an early "get with the program" frustration vote rather than push. TW we know was town. Brass is consensus townread. GL suddenly and inexplicably switched to compfan after a lengthy fracas with Junk, who hammered without getting a claim from compfan (which was unlikely in any event).

At least one of these players is scum.

Theory 1: Junk is scum bussing yellow.
Theory 2: Junk is scum trawling for the easiest mislynch he can obtain.
Theory 3: Junk and GL are scumbuddies staging an elaborate distancing drama.
Theory 4: GL is scum.
Theory 5: ?????

Since we are nearing EoD and we will again get fuck-all from the moonyyottavesper7 slot, I'd reluctantly settle with a yellow lynch. But remember: Junk can always claim he was RB'd till hell freezes over. If he's town he's no better than VT.

[GrandWazoo]

Holy shit we have action!

I take that to mean that you still think it would have been brave of scum!gw, but that other factors overshadow any weight that might have. Is that reasonable?

yeah that's basically it. especially considering the way he continued to push on the slot when the general thread vibe moved elsewhere and opening with it again on D2, it stops being "that guy is aggressively pushing a lynch with little resistance at this point" (which I consider relatively brave scumplay) and starts looking more like "that guy is tunneling the weakest slot he's pushed all game and avoiding the more controversial ones" (which looks more like scumplay). that, plus him reaching to write up a case against Junk just feels like he's looking for excuses to vote and push elsewhere outside of YS

Which "general thread vibe" are we talking about? The one where y'all lynched the townie? The slot I was pushing was formerly occupied by Nineja which (again, saying this not for the first time) was persuasively scumread by TW - the only player we know was town - and inherited by Junk.

Seriously GL, I feel like you ask the same questions even after I've answered them, and raise the same issues even after I've resolved them.

A lynch has been achieved!

VC 1.FINAL

votes

[5] computerfan0

:

YellowSnow 160, the worst 444, GuiltyLion 471, brassherald 540, Junk 575

[2] GrandWazoo

:

computerfan0 87, YyottaCat 256

[1] Junk

:

GrandWazoo 216

[1] Not Voting

:

JunkoChan 574

Which of the mislynch voters is scum? Yellow's vote was basically an early "get with the program" frustration vote rather than push. TW we know was town. Brass is consensus townread. GL suddenly and inexplicably switched to compfan after a lengthy fracas with Junk, who hammered without getting a claim from compfan (which was unlikely in any event).

At least one of these players is scum.

Theory 1: Junk is scum bussing yellow.
Theory 2: Junk is scum trawling for the easiest mislynch he can obtain.
Theory 3: Junk and GL are scumbuddies staging an elaborate distancing drama.
Theory 4: GL is scum.
Theory 5: ?????

Since we are nearing EoD and we will again get fuck-all from the moonyyottavesper7 slot, I'd reluctantly settle with a yellow lynch. But remember: Junk can always claim he was RB'd till hell freezes over. If he's town he's no better than VT.

also this post is bad - again he just writes off the idea of scum!YellowSnow.

WTF man? Theory #1 has Junk bussing yellow, meaning

both

are scum. I even state my willingness to lynch yellow if worse comes to worst. At no point do I ever declare yellow town, or "write off the idea of scum!YellowSnow", and it's highly disingenuous of you to persist in saying I have.

p-edit: it's not a contradiction so much as it is that Junk is unCC'd doctor at that point and therefore no townie should/would be scumreading him. YellowSnow called him scum immediately after Junk pointed a finger at YS, and then when called out on

that

, Yellow tried to play semantics games to defend himself by saying that he didn't vote Junk.

Because that's what yellow does. As I told you several times now, yellow just does shit like that and it's NAI.

I'll look through 1906 but I really don't believe in using one game for meta. the worst said something similar, but if you haven't seen Yellow's scumgame then there's never a safe reason to assume this is his town game based on old town games.

You don't think it's worth seeing his town game? OK I'll save you the trouble of reading that other game. He plays the same derpy way in that one.

as for why you should be townreading me, I don't really believe in towncasing myself? It should be evident I'm not working with anyone and I'm trying to solve the game. If you're not able to see that and you have specific issues/questions about my play then I can try to show you, but you're also not really vocalizing why you think I'm scum so I don't have a starting point to work with.

There you go again. I have never said you're scum. I'm leaving open the possibility. There's a difference which is why I'm not voting you.

And, I guess a town cop and two goon setup is legit, in my inability to read simple charts I missed that cop can be alone. And, if there were two goons, doctor would be an even safer claim by someone who is clearly experienced. I think that my Junk lock town needs to be revoked because it's just not true.

Praise the lord, someone gets it. The fact that Junk was not CC'd is

not proof

that he is what he says he is. I jumped to the same conclusion myself before looking at the chart and went "now wait just a goddam minute..."

[GrandWazoo]

But think about the likelihood of a) one scum targeting TW for the NK; b) town!Junk targeting TW for protection; and c) the other scum roleblocking town!Junk. This highly improbable scenario is exactly what he wants us to believe! Compare that to the likelihood of scum!Junk successfully FC (83.3%). And even if Junk is CC'd by the actual Doc, he probably thinks he can bury that claim in verbiage and hostility, as he has done to town all game.

I feel your paranoia

but is it really so low probability?

if junk is the doctor, then the rb for sure role blocks him

so then it's just a question of whether both scum and junk decide to target TW, and that doesn't seem too unlikely. 25-50% shot of happening considering the gamestate

The question is what's more likely, the complex sequence of actions supporting Junk claims, or the fairly simple one where Junk crafts a fakeclaim and retrofits subsequent events? I find the latter more likely by a considerable margin.

well, he claimed D1

and the presumption is usually that town won't lie about their role.

so in this world from scum perspective, he was almost certainly doctor.

That's the presumption, yes, the kind that can lose games. And as I said previously, Junk can continue to say he was roleblocked, especially now that our other PR is dead. Awfully convenient, isn't it?

[GrandWazoo]

Ahh, OK. Missed the context there.

[GrandWazoo]

Ragequitting. LAMISS.

[GrandWazoo]

but is it really so low probability?

if junk is the doctor, then the rb for sure role blocks him

so then it's just a question of whether both scum and junk decide to target TW, and that doesn't seem too unlikely. 25-50% shot of happening considering the gamestate

I can't put a definite number on it, but you first have to believe that scum townread both TW and Junk, then NK'd TW and RB'd Junk. As opposed to vice versa. Since Junk was considerably more aggro than TW, I think he'd be the NK but I'm just speculating. Or maybe TW's scumread on Nineja had something to do with it. I can't find evidence of TW crumbing his Cop role, nor anything suggesting Junk is Doc, maybe it was a lucky guess, or one or both scum had a meta Cop read on TW.

Then there's the likelihood that Junk began plotting his FC the minute he read his PM, studied the setup and figured (correctly at first) that nobody else would.

Whatever percentage you put on it Junk's scenario seems awfully convenient, and his only response so far has been "I wasn't CC'd so GFY".

[GrandWazoo]

but you first have to believe that scum townread both TW and Junk,

could you clarify this please

Bad word choice, by townread I meant "most threatening to scum."

[GrandWazoo]

IOW scum would have to believe Junk had a PR worth blocking. I think they NK'd TW because he was IC and was scumreading Junk's predecessor already.

[GrandWazoo]

Yes. But then why not NK him? Unless they had a strong Cop vibe on TW, which I don't believe they did, or feared TW would continue to push that slot after Junk replaced.

[GrandWazoo]

because in the world that junk is the doctor, we're in the first setup column. Scum wouldn't have known if there was a cop or a jail keeper, so they wouldn't risk having the jailkeeper save the claimed doctor.

Ok, you've got a good point there. But this just gets back to the other issue: If town!Junk he will be useless to us since he'll be RB'd every night. If scum!Junk he'll claim RB every night. Until he gets dead we'll never know which.

[GrandWazoo]

But his PR would be. Town!Junk is effectively VT from here on out.

[GrandWazoo]

Correct-a-mundo.

[GrandWazoo]

@brass: Some quick points.

1. Last I checked Yellow is voting Junk now, not me.

2. Yellow is doing Yellow things. Making sense and applying logic aren't among them.

3. Junk ragequit. That's scumspeak for "I'm busted."

[GrandWazoo]

3. Junk ragequit. That's scumspeak for "I'm busted."

I disagree, I constantly rage out of threads, and more often as town because I actually like being town.

OK, that's something I don't do unless I'm so bored I can't justify wasting another minute on the game, which isn't the case here, but have seen it more often from scum.

Anyway, does your case on yellow go much beyond his admittedly (and typically) inchoate scumread on me? Is it more persuasive than my take on Junk? You seemed to be coming around to my POV there, and you put Nineja at L-1 earlier.

[GrandWazoo]

If we can't lynch Junk - and I think I grok Junko's reasoning - then GL is the play.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[GrandWazoo]

Junko, your vote was only L-2 if I'm not mistaken

[GrandWazoo]

Then I was mistaken lol forgot about urap2

[GrandWazoo]

I guess I'm still getting used to actually getting contribution from that slot. Now that we are I'm feeling a lot better about our chances.

[GrandWazoo]

So to recap here are the votes for the two mislynches (town in green):

[5] computerfan0 :

YellowSnow

160,

the worst

444,

GuiltyLion

471,

brassherald

540,

Junk

575
[4] YellowSnow :

Junk

594,

brassherald

842,

GuiltyLion

951,

u r a person 2

960

I have no doubt that Junk will say he was RB'd again. Maybe he was, though I continue to doubt it and we won't know till he dies. I also have no doubt that GuiltyLion will continue to misrep me and try to get me lynched, even though he was driving the yellow wagon and I was arguing against it. Finally, I have no doubt that town will lose unless we lynch GL today.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[GrandWazoo]

Dude you repeatedly called me out for not wanting to lynch yellow. Now yellow flips town and you're still shading me. That tells me you're either scum or really, really bad at reading players. So consider it a compliment that I'm calling you scum.

You're not spinning your way out this time.

[GrandWazoo]

i think GL is scum though and i will vote him eventually, i think

i just read his post and it was pretty damn scummy

man, screw you the worst, for townreading GL so much and messing with my head XD

we should have lynched GL day 1 instead of computerfan0, who was spewed town from GL being scum . . .

(now GW will call me an insane ape who is spreading lead everywhere LMAO)

:goodposting:

[GrandWazoo]

Junko is town.

I am town.

GL is scum.

We can sort the other two after we lynch GL.

[GrandWazoo]

Yes, that's a very exciting vision of the future Junk. But for the present we need to lynch GL.

[GrandWazoo]

the person with korean avatar was scumreading GL, right?

so him dying looks scummy on GL

if GW was scum, the night kill would have been brass or junko, right?

Yes, urap2, Junko and I were all scumreading GL. Then some fuckery happened, Junko unvoted and urap2 inexplicably hammered yellow a day and a half before DL. If I was scum I'd have wanted a malleable player like urap2 around as long as possible.

The urap2 NK is puzzling but beside the point now. The point now is to lynch GL.

[GrandWazoo]

Junk for the love of god (or whatever animistic/pagan entity you pray to) focus! GL is the lynch today. We can worry about his scumpartner tomorrow.

pedit: GL spoke the scum!yellow reality into existence yesterday. Alas, it worked and now we're at Lylo.

[GrandWazoo]

Dude stahp. You tried pocketing me D1 and it didn't work. You spent D2 pushing a mislynch and shading me for not supporting your bullshit argument.

pedit: I am 100 percent certain you are scum. I am less certain of Junk and brass. Ergo, you're the lynch today.

[GrandWazoo]

There you go again. I cited numerous examples. You just ignored them and now you're continuing to misrep me as predicted.

[GrandWazoo]

Oh that was fun. Now do "GW is scum for defending yellow".

[GrandWazoo]

It must be very frustrating for you.

[GrandWazoo]

I'm sure it will be a big, beautiful wall.

[GrandWazoo]

Did you all know that there is 100% scum in GW/GL now that we have all posted and the game is not over?

Because I sure noticed that.

Allow me to expand a bit: If GW is town voting GL town, Junko and Junk would have coordinated to pile two more votes on by now and just win the damn game.

But, the fact is, either scum does not have 2 free votes, or scum does not want this lynch to occur.

I am not voting outside of GW or GL today.

Scum doesn't want the lynch to occur because GL is scum.

Junko and urap2 were ready to lynch GL yesterday. Junko is still scumreading GL but for some reason isn't voting him. As I have no clue what Junk is going to do, it's up to you and Junko to keep this game alive.

[GrandWazoo]

Junk you magnificent bastard I take back all those mean things I said.

VOTE: BH

[GrandWazoo]

If Junko is scum she deserves to win. In fact it would be the best scum performance I've ever seen.

But she isn't. You are. So voting you out of the gate is a wonderful idea.

[GrandWazoo]

LMAO your jib is still awesome man.

[GrandWazoo]

Well you can always self-hammer and we can get to postgame analysis right away. Or Junko can do the honors. Either works for me.

[GrandWazoo]

Great fucking movie!

My favorite line is Little Bill. "Innocent? Innocent of WHAT?!"

[GrandWazoo]

Well the Scofield Kid was the motivating force in the picture, but he wasn't exactly heroic. I think that was the point. There are no heroes. Ned of course was the conscience of the movie and look what happened to him.

[GrandWazoo]

Actually it occurs to me that Unforgiven would make for a fantastic theme game.

[GrandWazoo]

It would be a lot of work, but the characters (even the minor ones like Beauchamp) are so complex it would be fun to design such a game.

[GrandWazoo]

OMG Junko. Godlike game!

[GrandWazoo]

If I weren't so certain Junko was town I would've been more circumspect. She snowed everyone. Not even mad, just in awe.

Thanks for modding northsidegal. Really enjoyed it.

[GrandWazoo]

Gee, what a shock almost as if maybe reevaluating your reads and thinking for 5 fucking minutes was the actual right move rather than handing away a win. I wish someone had said to do this for a full page so that town could have won, but, GOLLY! Who could do that?

Maybe some more experienced player who explained to you that you don't get to LYLO by having good reads. If only that happened in this game.

C'mon man. It's not like you even bothered to make a case on Junko or even really defend yourself.

[GrandWazoo]

Guys if you want to blame me for the loss, fine, I deserve it. But it shouldn't take away from Junko's performance.

[GrandWazoo]

@Duck of Death: Would you have been more assertive had you not been IC? I felt you were pulling your punches at times, asking questions more than aggressively pushing reads. Maybe it's just a playstyle thing, or you felt an obligation to be instructive? Anyway I did enjoy engaging with you and hope to play with all of y'all again.

[GrandWazoo]

@Junko, you did do some things that pinged me, like tunneling me basically the whole game and unvoting GL, but by that time you had me in your reality distortion field and I just wrote that off as derpnewb rather than evil genius scum. Now I know better.

[GrandWazoo]

I'll swing it this way: it's not your fault we lost. but if you'd turned around at the last moment and decided to give brass the benefit of the doubt, it could've been your fault SCUM lost!

yes, this 100% is what I was trying to convey. I hope my comments weren't seen as throwing you the blame. (I think you'll see where I put the blame if you look in the dead thread =P )

TBH I doubt there's anything brass could've said at that point. Junko was so locktown in my fervid brain that whatever brass said would've read scum to me. Even the Unforgiven discussion gave me the feeling of scum tapping out. Confirmation bias is a helluva drug!