Newbie 1143 - Game Over

[Lunitawolf]

Hi, all! I look forward to playing with all of you. I just finished my first game in Newbie 1140 (although the game itself is still ongoing).

I will go read over things and post soon, and hopefully we can put some life back into this game!

[Lunitawolf]

Ok, I've caught up. Here are my preliminary thoughts:

My top suspects are Effortless, Lizk, and Hazard.

Daybid is in fourth. Way too long a list, I need to work on narrowing it down.

I would bet at least one of the above is scum.

The final votes on Thomith, now proven town, were from: Hazard, Lizk, my predecessor, Gen, and Effortless.

I would also bet that at least one scum was riding the Thomith bandwagon.

Three of my suspects are on that train.

Effortless

* Although he admits that posting what you think is pro-town, http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1&start=64]he does not do the same [/url]when he voted for Lizk and says we don't know exactly why he voted for her but can only have a vague idea. Why not tell us so we can evaluate it properly?

* Effortless' reasons for voting people, such as Lizk above, seem to be based on faulty logic. He accused her of being scummy for a behavior that he later admits he did himself. His explanations for that weren't satisfactory.

* Effortless spends a lot of time saying that scum are likely to be active lurkers, and he admits to inflating his own post count... why? Is this because later in the game he thinks he can just point to the Activity Overview at the bottom of the page that will show he has high numbers and argue he can't be scum, he's active? And that people will forget his admitted inflation? I won't forget... Active lurking is definitely something to watch out for and be suspicious, but scum can be extremely active too. Felt like he was trying to set himself up for town points later. [Though I agree the thread has been too quiet and would like to see everyone posting more often.]

* Effortless says that

if

someone is town, he's the third best lynch... huh? If he's town he's not a good lynch candidate at all! He then says that Travis [my predecessor] is a "safe lynch" That seems odd too... just because Travis was lurking doesn't make him safe to lynch. I can understand the impulse to get rid of players that aren't actively contributing, but it's a mistake to confuse the desire to have active players around with the thought that it's safe to get rid of those who aren't ... he could be a power role, you just don't know.

Lizk

* She agreed to be lynched today (if Thomith was town, which he was) so long as we lynched Thomith yesterday. If she was really town, she wouldn't say "Works for me" and agree to something against her win condition.
* Also, she was powerhunting at the start of the day, again an anti-town thing to do at this stage.
* Lizk strongly defends Hazard's action at the start of the day, and says "that is in no way a scum slip." ... I think it *was* a scumslip for the reasons explained below.

Hazard

* Faking being town... 'Yay! One scum down!'... 'Drat, we got lynch wrong!' [His 'Shit' wasn't to no kill Night 1, it was to Tomith flipping town, as today was the first opportunity to talk about what happened with that lynch. He admits that in Post 393.] So, he makes at least 3 posts to seem town, but doesn't advance the ball in any of them. Looks like he is replacing out though, so I guess we'll have to wait to hear from the replacement instead.

Daybid

* Uses Appeal to Emotion to say, lynch me and town loses!
* Powerhunting on Day 1...
* Making a 'placeholder' vote ... RVS long over, no placeholders needed. And he immediately says he'll switch his vote once any attention at all was called to it.


In homage to our fallen townie,
VOTE: Lizk

[Lunitawolf]

Wolf: I was really only pushing Hazard and Thomith. I think there were good reasons for both although in retrospect I should have realized that I was annoyed with Thomith and was trying to rationalize lynching him.

No... you also pushed on Lizk and Travis.... You said Travis was a 'safe' lynch and Lizk you pushed for quite a few posts.

Effortless gives the impression of being scum who was looking for a place to hang his hat ('anyone but me'), but wants to rewrite history now and think we'll forget, so he doesn't come off as so obvious.

Push on Lizk:

I still encourage everyone to vote for lizk.

We should vote for lizk because her play is suspicious.

I'm accusing lizk because I feel like she might actually be a good candidate to lynch, depending on her answers.

In the end it comes down to this: Is lizk trying to avoid attention, while trying to look somewhat active at the same time?
I think she does, and I think that's a good reason to vote for her.

[Lunitawolf]

I'd like to know everyone's read on Gen_Wolf because something doesn't quite sit right with him.

I'll go back and look now. Nothing in particular struck me when I did my initial readthrough. That may be though because he hasn't posted much.

[Lunitawolf]

Gen seems town to me...asking probing questions, trying to get people's thoughts, giving his own...

He was strongly pushing the case on Thomith, but it didn't come across as scummy to me.

Anything more concrete you can point to that is bothering you?

[Lunitawolf]

Thanks for the welcome. And, hi, Thor! Great to see you again... and you were right about me in your intro post... I'm town!

@Thor When I did my first read-through, there was nothing that really seemed majorly off about Gen as I did my first read-through. I agree with you that his posts at the end of Day 1 were not "good scumhunting." But, earlier he was probing people and not afraid to apply pressure. He actually gained town points in my eyes because he probed Travis, as it felt genuine and he has no way of knowing my alignment ... it didn't feel like 'let's see what sticks.'

What do you think I misrepresenting about effortless?

[Lunitawolf]

I haven't been able to read it all yet, but Lizk nailed it dead on above, as for Thor, mate you can lynch me today but when i turn up town, and I will turn up town it might be a short day 3 for you!

A request to town please... if you are town, please do not just accept a lynch to prove yourself, etc. Fight it. I'm not saying you're doing that here, Gen, but I am overly weary at the moment of it.

(Scum, on the other hand, feel free to just give up!)

[Lunitawolf]

[quote=effortless]
Well, third best after the two scum My point is that getting to late game with a few passive townies would be a disaster. [/quote]

I can definitely empathize with wanting people to actively post, but just because they don't post a lot day one doesn't mean that they're a safe lynch... they could be a power role trying to stay out of the line of fire until they have information that would be of use to town.

[Lunitawolf]

@Lunita - sheeping onto Lizk via a dead man is one of the most terrible things since the last time I shaved off my beard.

I needed to chose among one of the four to vote... She won out. And, even if it could be called sheeping, sheeping a proven townie's suspicion isn't that terrible... why should we ignore the opinions of the dead? It's the last thing they have to offer, and there were the other reasons Lizk was suspicious as well, like I mentioned.

One of my points was that she was defending your predecessor's scumtell. And now you in essence are defending her by making only addressing my one point (Tomith suspected her) and ignoring the rest.

@Everyone, what do you think about Thor/Lizk interaction?

[Lunitawolf]

Also, wow, one entire Day and it's Lunita and me.

Hey, Lunita, wanna sheep me a bit and be promoted to obv. town just for participating?

Yay, I love promotions!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gen_Wolf

Now that I'm confirmed town everyone should follow me from here on out.

I'll go back through the thread too to give you more thoughts on Gen and address effortless/Lizk.

[Lunitawolf]

@Lunita - lizk is such obvious town it hurts. What newbie town comes out to another town with "yeah, if you're not scum feel free to lynch me next!" Seriously now, that's a giant flaming wall of town tell right there.

Starting with Lizk...

Maybe that read is right, but the alternate read I'd love to have you pick apart is...

She is scum. She saw that the Tomith was close to being lynched, and she wanted to seal the deal before focus shifted elsewhere to prevent her or her scum buddy from being the chosen target of the day. So she took an all-knowing stance and said, "I know I'm right, I bet my life on it!" because she wanted anyone who was on the fence to be attracted to the certainty and vote with her. It worked and he got lynched.

Isn't it possible newbie scum would be so excited at being close to a lynch that they would make the error of stating more knowledge than they can possibly have as town (because at Day 1 no town knows anything other than that they themselves are town)?

Also, it was a pretty empty promise as it turns out as no one but me even held her feet to the fire for it, and I'm currently humoring you, so not even me... So maybe at best it's a null read not flaming town sign because if town can get away with that statement, so can scum, so the statement loses meaning...

@Thor If you would also answer please: What do you think about her first post of Day 2?

Well in the mean time, I'm glad no one else got killed last night! That means we definitely either have a doctor or a jail keeper, right?

[Lunitawolf]

Could you expand on your current read of Wolf? I feel like you were easing off the townread somewhat already. Maybe you could quote me some of the good scumhunting he did? Because he has, by far, the most opportunistic vote record of anyone in this game - and that's saying something with how the votes were flying Day 1.

Okay, after reading through again I've changed Gen back to a null read. Thanks for challenging my thinking, Thor, I do have a habit of getting anchored, which is dangerous here...

My Initial Reasoning

The post that caused me to first think he was town is a bit odd to explain because it was based on his reaction to something weird my predecessor's posted:

After confirmations were done, Effortless voted Saldyn and Gen_wolf voted Effortless.

Travis made his first post saying (?!?):

vote

:saldyn

I see early signs of collusion with saldyn and Gen_Wolf. With little explanation, Gen_Wolf came to the protection of saldyn from Effortless' vote. I'm curious to see how these two act in the future. For now, my vote is for saldyn. I urge everyone to join me in this effort. If saldyn is guilty, I propose to hang Gen_Wolf next, in that he is also a mafia member. If saldyn is innocent, I propose we do not hang Gen_Wolf in the next day phase.

When I was going through my first read and taking notes, I started to comment on this and realized it was from my own role. All I can guess is that Travis was trying to dive right in and get things moving. Though it's crazy that he already wanted to chain lynch Saldyn-Genwolf together if Saldyn flipped scum. I would have called Travis out on this post if I had been playing with him, so Genwolf gained town points for doing so and for keeping his vote on him waiting for an answer.

When I did my first read for him he also gained points because he solicited opinions from people who had been quiet: Saldyn (#113), Daybid (#207), Travis (see #206 where he says now that Travis is contributing he will reserve judgment and see how he plays game out) ... generating discussion is pro-town. Especially as he wasn't pushing a specific agenda.

Also, although he started voicing suspicions on Thomith as early as August 6 he cautioned not just looking at Thomith and had been suspicious of effortless for thinking Thomith potential scum:

Lizk, i'm not to sure on, I get the impression Thomith is dragging you into some petty battle about contradictions and all that... So i think if you focus on other people and re read what others had to say you could give some reads on them rather than focusing all your time on Thomith for now

@Effortless: Seems like your trying to get a little bit of a bandwagon going on Thomith... a little scummy???

Opposite

I had a professor in school who, when someone had a strong view on something, would force him to argue the opposite side. Good mental practice. So doing that here:

* Genwold does vote/cast suspicion on a lot of people.

- Although he had his vote on Travis, he started accusing Thomith on August 6.

As for Thomith, i've been watching you closely since the beginning! You've been very active but your very quick to accuse people for the smallest things, your also very quick to change votes and jump from one person to the next! You've also been asking all the questions and attacking everyone which is very scum like i feel...

- Although he never mentions any suspicion of Hazard (Thor), he votes Hazard (Thor) on August 10 and puts him at L-1 "to get the game going" and switches back to Travis when questioned on placing someone at L-1
[*Though I don't think this is a scumtell in this case]

- Votes Daybid Aug. 14, next day unvotes saying though Daybid was "very suspicious" but now thinks he's town. Says he suspicious of effortless and questions why effortless thinks Thomith isn't town.

- On August 18 he says (see above) that effortless is scummy for trying to start a bandwagon on Thomith and says Lizk should focus on other people, but the next day August 19, he votes Thomith putting Thomith at L-1 saying time was running out. [#349]

That was the end of his contribution through Day 1.

@Genwolf - Why did you change your vote so often Day 1?

* He did make a point to go out of his way to say Effortless wasn't defending him ... why? Possible scumslip?

@Everyone

What do people think about a possible effortless/gen team?

I know you are all going to think im defending him because he defended me, as was pointed out earlier by someone

Why was this necessary to state? Guilty conscience?

Necessary because if I hadn't stated it someone would of been like "Effortless defending Wolf, Wolf defending effortless... I think scum" where as i stated it because I don't mind answering questions about it, so rather than beat around the bush, just be honest and to the point...

However, Effortless wasn't protecting me, he was just stating his opinion which someone thought it was him defending me

For me, the above doesn't make him scum per se, even if not great scumhunting yet.

Does this line up with your view, Thor?

[Lunitawolf]

To your second point; this just doesn't make sense to me. Hypothetically, if I was scum, me calling tomith, a townie, scum would not be an error of stating more knowledge than I would have had if I was town. Sorry, that sentence doesn't sound very coherent, but I don't really know how else to put it.

@Lizk Scum have absolute knowledge on who is scum and who is town. Unlike town who only know that they are town and have no clue what alignment the other people are. As a result, scum are operating from a position of certainty and knowledge, and town are operating from a position of odds/hunches/feels.

So when I questioned your saying, "Thomith is definitely scum," my point was that your post was speaking from a place of certainty -- that's what I was keying in on... not on the lie itself. My thought is that town at this point would not make so certain a declaration but rather a "I really, really think Thomith is scum." Make sense now?

[Lunitawolf]

In hind sight I should of left that vote on and waited for Hazard to respond, however also in hindsight, scum might of dropped the hammer on him to get a lynch so still not sure if that was good or bad?

Well, I think it depends on the situation. L-1 isn't bad if you have a legitimate reason to think the person is scummy, but it's not worth the risk of a hammer if you have no basis at all, like you didn't have here. And maybe a quick hammer would have led us to catching scum if he had flipped town, but we also could have risked losing two townies in the process: the one hammered and the overly-excited townie who recklessly hammered who gets lynched the next day.

Votes Daybid Aug. 14, next day unvotes saying though Daybid was "very suspicious" but now thinks he's town. Says he suspicious of effortless and questions why effortless thinks Thomith isn't town.

And I don't see how this is a bad thing? I questioned effortless as to why he thought a player was non town and guess what, that player was town. Secondly, I still think effortless is scum as i did at that time?

@GenWolf

Can you explain to me what was "very suspicious" about Daybid on August 14 and what he did on August 15 that made you 180 and place him as town?

Yes, I voted a lot, but I voted when I thought something of a person, Thor makes it sound worse than it is! I voted days apart after I had a reason to vote! Lunita, I feel you don't believe i'm scum but have been talked into it by Thor as a lot of you will most likely be!

I don't have you placed in the likely scum camp at the point, no. But I no longer have you in the squarely town camp now either. Thor got me to go back and read with a more discerning eye -- which is a good thing, regardless of what his alignment may end up being -- and I realized I should do more probing before deciding where to place you.

And like I said before, it's not that me that will lose out it is the town.

Um... if you're town, how do you not lose out if town loses out?

[Lunitawolf]

@Gen I know Thor doesn't need anyone to stand up for him, but I feel the need to say something because it feels to me like you're attacking him personally -- not just his arguments. I think he's a great player and mentor, and I was excited to see he joined this game. I feel like I learn something from reading his posts and that it will improve my own play in the future.

Don't you think you're overreacting? After all, how can we figure out who to trust without fully examining them?

And that includes examining Thor too, of course.

@Effortless

What was it that made you suspicious of Hazard before? And what is it about Thor that is making you think he is town?

[Lunitawolf]

Post tomorrow. For now, sleep.

Welcome, Quilford!

I hope you got a good night sleep and look forward to hearing what you have to say.

[Lunitawolf]

@Lizk

If Gen is sticking out the most to you right now, why aren't you voting him?

@Effortless

Who is your top suspect?

[Lunitawolf]

I'd like everyone to name the player they consider the scummiest (apart from Gen_Wolf).

At this point Daybid, though that won't really take us anywhere unfortunately until we get a replacement for him.

[Lunitawolf]

I think everyone has made some pretty damn good reasons for lynching Gen. I'm ready to hammer, so how about sunday (my sunday, here it's friday afternoon). That gives time for any huge complaints or final words.

@Lizk, any questions you want him to answer and/or other information you want before you feel comfortable hammering him? He doesn't look like he's putting up much of a defense, so you'll likely need to ask for what you need.

[Lunitawolf]

Alright, I guess the hammer is about to drop so here is my farewell to all! Make it quick, not painful

I am infact, A

Vanilla Townie

, so Townie's out there, please look into Effortless and Haylen when I am gone, especially Effortless, he is scum as they come! However, seeing as you voted me you know best so I will leave you too it

But seriously, look into Effortless... Anyways was a good first game I enjoyed

If you are town, don't go down without a fight. Seriously. Even if you end up getting lynched, you can help spur more conversation now before the hammer which would help us have information to analyze after you're gone. And maybe the information we learn will convince us you're likely town and you won't end up lynched at all.

I see two methods of persuasion you can take (or both): explain to us why you're town and how the evidence shows that (and how the evidence shows that you're not scum) or explain to us with support who is scummy in your view and why.

For example, you state above that we should look into Effortless and Haylen. Why should we look into those two?
Tell us again (without just quoting any prior arguments) why those two are scummy. Now, show us the quotes/posts that support that.

[Lunitawolf]

Who is your top suspect?

Apart from Gen it has to be you and Thor.
You because of the forced reasoning against me and because you seem to be defending Gen indirectly (who is much more likely than average to be scum).
[/quote]

@effortless

What's scummy about the suspicions I had about you?
It would be one thing if I called you scummy but didn't provide any evidence for it. But I clearly laid out exactly what I was thinking and linked to the posts that generated those thoughts, so others could easily go back for themselves and check the original source to see if they agreed or thought there were holes in my thinking.

Why is Gen much more likely than average to be scum?

What makes you feel that I am indirectly defending Gen and are you calling that scummy? Is it because I provided advice on what he should do if he's close to be lynched? That may save him, or it may not. But it would definitely assist us.

[Lunitawolf]

EBWOP:

Who is your top suspect?

Apart from Gen it has to be you and Thor.
You because of the forced reasoning against me and because you seem to be defending Gen indirectly (who is much more likely than average to be scum).

@effortless

What's scummy about the suspicions I had about you?
It would be one thing if I called you scummy but didn't provide any evidence for it. But I clearly laid out exactly what I was thinking and linked to the posts that generated those thoughts, so others could easily go back for themselves and check the original source to see if they agreed or thought there were holes in my thinking.

Why is Gen much more likely than average to be scum?

What makes you feel that I am indirectly defending Gen and are you calling that scummy? Is it because I provided advice on what he should do if he's close to be lynched? That may save him, or it may not. But it would definitely assist us.

[Lunitawolf]

I will post substantive comment later today but am quickly posting now before I forget:

@Mod and all: I will be V/LA this coming Thursday-Tuesday.

I hope to not be completely MIA during that time, but I have an intense travel schedule, so I am letting people know in case I'm not able to.

[Lunitawolf]

@Effortless

Will you please address quote and Thor's questions laid out in post 525, question by question. It would help me (and others) analyze the situation. Just saying, "lol no, you're lying" doesn't help.

Specifically, these questions:

I agree he explained the vote on Thomith as far as that goes.
But his issues with you and liz totally or partially evaporated in that post (question: do you see/agree with that?)
THEN - at the start of the next day he was suddenly back voting you, a player you're saying he never had a strong issue with (do you see/agree with that?)
THEN - he only does it off of sheeping others (again, do you see that?)
THEN - he never got around to clearly defining his case on you (see that?)
And also, note that when he was about lynching you yesterday you were getting a lot of heat, and Thomith wasn't, and he didn't mention Thomith. Then when he comes back Thomith has heat and you don't, and suddenly his vote magically switches. Then when he comes back the next day you have heat, and guess where his suspicions are again (DO YOU SEE THIS!?!)

[Lunitawolf]

@Racerman

What makes Haylen one of your top two? Or Thor for that matter? I found your predecessor suspect, and your lack of support for your suspicions doesn't help the slot much. You say that Haylen is inconsistent... which part? Are you agreeing with every point Quilford made? Or only some of them, and if only some, which?

Re: Thor/Effortless back and forth

- The back and forth starts off because Thor wants to lynch Gen, and Effortless, although suspicious of Gen, is also suspicious of Thor.
- Effortless becomes slightly less suspicious of Gen here because Gen voted for Thor as an "OMGUS fueled with indignation" ...

or perhaps Effortless is more sympathetic to Gen because Gen's joining his desired bandwagon

- Thor defends himself against Effortless' reasons for suspicions, which were initially based on what happened Day 1, and argument ensues. To me, Thor satisfactorily addressed Effortless' original comments, but Effortless kept pressing ... not sure why.

Discussing some of the points raised:

Point: Effortless finds Hazard's Lynch All Liars policy scummy.
Counterpoint: Thor challenges Effortless' thinking that only scum would have that policy.
My view:

This doesn't make HazardThor suspicious to me. I'm town, and I would have likely gone after someone if caught in a lie. In a game where town are at a disadvantage because we lack information, and scum have information, additional gambits that obfuscate what's going on are harmful. I've read the wiki articles on scum tells trying to learn how to effectively play here, which has definitely shaped my views. I'm slowly learning that it's an imperfect guide that requires more experience to know when to apply.

Point: Effortless says Thor is "misreading or misrepresenting some of the stuff that happened on Day 1." The only example provided in Effortless' initial post on it, however, was's Thor's running commentary he posted when he replaced in which says "Meh...methinks I can guess how Thomith eventually gets lynched." Effortless takes issue with this because Thor didn't post what that thinking was.
Counterpoint: Thor says there's nothing there that's misrepresenting/misleading. He then explains what he was thinking then (Thomith got lynched because of his standoffish attitude)
My view:

I agree with Thor that there is nothing misreading/misrepresenting about the example.

Point: Effortless appears to concede that the example didn't show that Thor misread/misrepresenting anything, as he shifts his argument to say that it's besides the point, the Thomith lynch was an important event and Thor should have wanted to state what his guess was without being asked and that it is an example of ignoring something that's significant.
Counterpoint:

Point: Effortless brings up Hazard's comment right after Day 2 began as a scumtell.
Counterpoint: Thor agrees it can be a scumtell when paired with other tells, but that it can is a newbietell.
Point: Effortless says "there's no reason to point this out" because he has other tells on Thor
My view:

Until I saw Effortless' follow up post, I wasn't even going to comment on this point because Thor said it could be a tell and there didn't seem to be a debate. But I find it odd that Effortless would question why Thor would "point this out" ... he's being attacked, of course he'd defend. To me it read like Effortless was arguing just to argue.

- After that exchange is when Effortless casts his vote on Thor.

I just don't see it. Thor is reading very town to me.

[Lunitawolf]

Re: I'm currently null on Haylen. The active lurking thing would bother me more if it wasn't for her work schedule. I don't think she's using work as a ploy to be able to active lurk. I didn't find the comments on Haylen's random questions or initial vote to be convincing, seemed more like a stretch.

[Lunitawolf]

@Effortless

Part of my problem with your attack on Thor is that the basis keeps changing, and, as I explained earlier today, I didn't buy into your suspicions that you originally laid out that led to you casting your vote for him. You two didn't discuss what Gen said/didn't say until

after

you had cast your vote on Thor.

Why are you pushing so hard on Thor? Is it because he pushing so hard for Gen's lynch? It's really making me suspect that you and Gen are the scum team, like I considered earlier:

@Everyone

What do people think about a possible effortless/gen team?

@Everyone

Can people please weigh in on this?

As to the latest points you raised, here's my analysis:

His first lie was saying that Gen said he would reread and then just voted Thomith in his very next post.
It's lie because Gen's next post was about why he found Thomith suspicious. He voted him in the post after that.

Thor never lied. His notes said:

If you’re ever curious who has the most suspicion on them all you have to do is look for whoever Gen_Wolf is voting for – he’s always there.

Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:09 am “Ya, sorry ive confused myself,let me reread and then repost” (this is after being called on attacking effortless for starting a bandwagon on Thomith…which lizk pointed out she was doing, not effortless)
Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:16 am – his next post, no rephrase…just a vote for…effortless…no, wait, that would make sense, instead he votes Thomith! Obv. Scum is obvious.
^^^ I’m still waiting for him to become the obv. Town I understand he apparently is – when does that happen?

Thor never said anything about whether Gen gave a reason for his Thomith vote (hence, it's not a lie). Based on my reading, especially considering the bolded part, Thor is saying that Gen moves around a lot. He said that he was suspicious of you for thinking that Thomith wasn't town:

I'm a little suspicous of Effortless, why are you thinking that Thomith is no longer town?

He also says that he isn't sure about Lizk and that she could be scum.

Yet, he then turns on Thomith, who you and Lizk are voting for, and votes for him, without addressing whether that means he no longer seems suspicious. It's like he was just fake scumhunting and that's why he doesn't address his changing opinions of people - only makes new accusations.

His second lie was claiming that Gen said lizk was his top suspect when he voted Thomith.

I wasn't just saying he's lying, I gave an example. He lied about Gen saying he found both liz and Thomith suspicious. Gen said he

used to think

that

one of them

was scum and after reading through their conversation decided it was probably Thomith.

Eh... I'm not reading Gen's words as him saying that he no longer thought Lizk was possible scum. Gen said:

I also thought that either Thomith or Lizk was scummy but didn't know which one! After re-reading

i'm starting to suspect you

Thomith and depending on how many votes you have I will be voting for you (Just need to check quickly)

He leaves wiggle room that it's not Thomith afterall. Given Gen's lack of clarity, at worst Thor misunderstood what Gen meant -- though any after-the-fact explanation from Gen would be rightfully suspect as opportunistic recasting of history.

In summary

: I don't see evidence that Thor is scum.


This post also makes me suspicious of a Gen/Effortless team:

I know you are all going to think im defending him because he defended me, as was pointed out earlier by someone

Why was this necessary to state? Guilty conscience?

Necessary because if I hadn't stated it someone would of been like "Effortless defending Wolf, Wolf defending effortless... I think scum" where as i stated it because I don't mind answering questions about it, so rather than beat around the bush, just be honest and to the point...

However, Effortless wasn't protecting me, he was just stating his opinion which someone thought it was him defending me

Doth protest too much?

[Lunitawolf]

Eh, if Gen was my scum buddy I would have just bussed him.

Especially with Thor having me as confirmed townie and Gen refusing to defend himself the best play would be to just cut him loose.

Good point.

His first lie was saying that Gen said he would reread and then just voted Thomith in his very next post.
It's lie because Gen's next post was about why he found Thomith suspicious. He voted him in the post after that.

Thor never lied.

Thor said Gen's next post was just a vote. Gen's next post wasn't a vote. Therefore Thor was lying.

Two points (well three, really, although this first one is more just a feeling). It seems like you're clinging really tightly to this notion that Thor is scum even though your arguments aren't as strong as you seem to be thinking. Why is that? And if Thor is scum, who is his buddy?

Regarding the vote, yes, technically there was a post between the "I need to re-read" and the vote actually being cast. However:
- Gen's post saying he needed to re-read was written on Thursday at 8:09 am. His next two posts were written only three minutes apart the next day on Friday at 6:16am and 6:19am.
- And, importantly, in the first of those Friday posts, Gen expresses his plan to vote for Thomith after checking the vote count, and he does vote after so checking:

After re-reading i'm starting to suspect you Thomith and

depending on how many votes you have I will be voting for you (Just need to check quickly)

So... yes, technically you're right, but substantively you're wrong. This doesn't show that Thor was "lying" in his notes.

My other point that you have still failed to address, which I would like you to, is that the question of whether Gen immediately voted after saying he needed to re-read wasn't raised by you until

after

you had voted Thor. Why? Why did you continue to go after Thor when the original points of suspicion were shown to be wrong?

And, let's assume for a moment that Thor intentionally left off mention of Gen's middle post during his note-taking, which came 3 minutes before the vote and which expressed the intent to vote for Thomith after doing a quick vote check, do you think that's enough of a basis to think Thor is scum?

[Lunitawolf]

Welcome, Porochaz!

Our lynch deadline is 3 days from now on Saturday, so hopefully you can get up to speed and let us know your thoughts before the weekend.

[Lunitawolf]

Welcome, Porochaz!

Our lynch deadline is 3 days from now on Saturday, so hopefully you can get up to speed and let us know your thoughts before the weekend.

Hello there, Thank you for volunteering yourself, you can help me by telling me from your point of view, what the biggest things that have happened in the game so far and your opinion on them. I should point out that at this moment in time, I'm asking you and don't want to hear from anyone else. So no pressure.

Here's a link to my original thoughts when I replaced in at the start of Day 2.

My thoughts have changed a lot since then. Right now my top two suspects are Gen and Racerman, so would welcome your thoughts on both.

One of the debates I'm having with myself over Gen is whether his train hopping is because he's opportunistic scum or because he's just a really indecisive town and easily swayed.

There have been some people on the Haylen bandwagon, though I haven't seen a convincing case on her yet.

Effortless went after Thor, but I did a thorough read of the backposts they were referring to, and I don't see a Thor case. Thor is reading town to me.

That's it in a nutshell! I'm on V/LA through Tuesday, though hopefully will not be completely checked out during that time.

[Lunitawolf]

tl;dr: thor (who replaced hazard by the way) convinced me my cases weren't terribly strong/good.

- I sheeped Thor on Gen vote while I went to lay out a case why Gen was obvtown. Realized that I couldn't do that and that there were some strange vote patterns/flipflops going on with him that didn't make sense from town. left vote on to get more info on Gen.
- In the meantime I took a hard look at the Haylen/Thor cases that came up but neither swayed me. Analyzing Thor's posts also helped me conclude he is town, which in turn makes me trust his read on Gen more as well.

I couldn't go and gather more info on my Daybid(Racerman) case because Daybid went inactive and never posted again after my initial post I linked to you where I laid out my suspicions of him and it took awhile to find a replacement for him. My suspicions are based on Daybid's posts as Racerman just recently replaced in and is currently V/LA.

[Lunitawolf]

Ok, so my question is: So you trust Thor's read on me as scum, what happens when the flip comes and I turn out to be town? Does that mean Thor is no longer town or he just made a mistake? You see, you've all accused me of sheeping Ozzie, however you have sheeped Thor quite a lot through this second day! What would your response to that statement be?

Eh.. I haven't "sheeped Thor quite a lot through this second day." I only sheeped Thor by placing a vote on you. But, I immediately did my own review of the original posts and conducted my own analysisof you.

My thoughts on whether Haylen or Thor is scum are MY thoughts. I'm not parroting anyone. When I analyzed the debate between Thor and Effortless, I didn't read their posts and decide what I thought. I painstakingly went back to the original sources to make sure each side was accurately portraying the past and reached my own conclusions, as I posted in detail. Haylen, same thing.

So, no...

If you end up getting lynched and flip town, it doesn't mean that Thor is automatically scum as wrong == scum. But of course I would go and look carefully at past interactions based on that information and try to figure out if scum was on the wagon and, if so, who.

[Lunitawolf]

I want to probe Racerman's slot as potential scum.

[Lunitawolf]

Hey, all. Still on V/LA through tomorrow when crazy travel schedule finally ends, but wanted to post some thoughts.

Thanks, Poro, for sharing your thoughts. I find it helpful!

I still don't see what you're seeing about Thor. The one "superficial" example you gave was Thor's agreeing with my statement that there is probably one scum in the group of 5 ... I didn't think my point was superficial. It helps to look at a smaller subset for scum rather than taking everyone on at once. Why wouldn't you want to look at the train more carefully that resulted in a townie being lynched?

The one potential scumtell for me re: Thor is that he hasn't been actively posting here for a few days, and I read in a QT from a finished game of his where he said that not posting can be a scum technique to foster town fatigue. But there are other factors here with lots of replacements, etc., so without more that wouldn't be enough to sway me.

@Quilford I would be willing to consider the Daybid/Racerman slot for a vote.

Here were my original thoughts on Daybid:

Daybid
* Uses Appeal to Emotion to say, lynch me and town loses!
* Powerhunting on Day 1...
* Making a 'placeholder' vote ... RVS long over, no placeholders needed. And he immediately says he'll switch his vote once any attention at all was called to it.

Then Racerman comes in and doesn't scumhunt either, votes Haylen with little reason given and names Thor as a suspect with no reason given.

The wrench in all this for me though is that Daybid went inactive and now Racerman is too. So I don't know how to judge the active lurking/lack of participation.

[Lunitawolf]

@Poro, Effortless, JetX: do you support a Gen wagon?

At this point my vote will only either stay on Gen or go to JetX. I'm not up for lynching either Thor or Haylen today.

@JetX Welcome! Sorry to say you're replacing into a spot that already seems scummy to me. Once you get settled, will you please tell us your thoughts on the other players so far .. and specifically on Gen, please. Thanks.

[Lunitawolf]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JetX

[Lunitawolf]

I kinda feel bad for saying it but Lunita gives off an impressionable vibe and you took advantage.

No offense taken. I admit I have a bit of a soft spot for Thor from my first game here, but I'd like to think it doesn't cloud my judgment. That said, I'm not sure if you're saying I'm impressionable from just the 'yay promotion!' comment or from a larger overall read?

To explain in case it's the first, we had been posting that afternoon, and I was still actively reading the thread and analyzing when he posted the promotion comment. No one else had been active that afternoon, and I was still actively in the thread and not going anywhere for awhile, so I thought for fun, 'why not?' and voted while I continued with my analysis (which was subsequently posted). It came time to more thoroughly analyze Gen, for my town case for him, and I found it wasn't as strong as I had originally thought (as I also posted). So I then kept my vote on because I wanted to get more information on Gen.

[Lunitawolf]

@Haylen why did you vote no lynch before coming forward about Thor?

[Lunitawolf]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Lunitawolf]

I plan to vote no lynch because I'm not 100% convinced you're town. But first, if you can give us any updated reads on other people in case you are killed tonight that we can evaluate tomorrow, that would be helpful.

UNVOTE:

I don't want scum to cut off our communication before we're ready.

[Lunitawolf]

I think a no lynch is out of the question now, if Haylen is telling the truth then all that will happen is we will no lynch and Haylen or Poro will be lynched meaning we are in the same predicament tomorrow?

If we no lynch today, we'll be in LYLO tomorrow but we'd have more information. So unless someone is a confirmed town (and I'm not 100% sold on Haylen as town cop), then we're better off, in my opinion, no lynching as it will increase our chance of getting scum tomorrow.

[Lunitawolf]

I agree with Poro.

@Haylen why did you investigate Lizk/Poro night 1 and Thor night 2?

[Lunitawolf]

@Quilford why don't you want to no lynch?

Haylen isn't confirmed cop. I don't like the timing she declared it after she had already made several other posts including voting no lynch. Plus, she says she doesn't breadcrumb but she also said she was afraid she was outed yesterday as cop (@haylen why?). Yet she debt die last night. Even if I'm 90% sure she was cop still not worth the risk today.

If she's scum and we lynch Thor today we lose.

If she's town and we lynch Thor we live another day.

If she's scum and we no lynch we live another day.

If she's town and we no lynch we live another day.

So better to no lynch.

Plus We can get more info with another sure night. If she's cop and scum kill her we know to lynch Thor. If scum don't kill her we get te benefit of another night of investigations and the result. And can decide if she's truthful cop or scum then.

[Lunitawolf]

I still want to hear from Haylen why she choose each target each night and why she thought she was outed yesterday.

[Lunitawolf]

If scum don't kill her we get te benefit of another night of investigations and the result.

Logically, this doesn't make sense. Why would you want the benefit of another investigation when my lack of being dead will instantly make you suspect me?

We have no way of 100% confirming you as town cop, so we are going to have to make a decision on your credibility at some point unless you die tonight. I'd rather make the decision with more information, rather than less, especially since one wrong move at this point costs us the game.

We're just postponing the inevitable, and we don't get to take confirmed innocent Porochaz to 4p MYLO.

Come. On.

@Quilford Why do you think scum wouldn't kill you?

For someone who says in post 748 that "The scum kill is WIFOM," you're using it a lot.
- You say the scum kill of Effortless makes you suspect Thor.
- You presume to know how scum will kill tonight and that they'll kill Poro over Haylen (or you or anyone else).

The only TOWN person who should be making the argument to lynch Thor today over voting a no lynch is Haylentowniecop. It doesn't make any sense coming from *you.* You can't know with 100% certainty that Haylen is town, and I cannot see the town motivation for taking a chance now when we would have much more information to make a more informed decision tomorrow.

This is a semi-closed setup. There is no guarantee that there is a cop role. At most, given the lack of counterclaims, I think we can assume either Haylen is telling the truth or Haylen is doing a scum gambit and town drew the doctor/6 vanilla townie setup. We're going to have to decide which it is, and I see no reason to make that decision today when the downside greatly outweighs the upside.

At this point, it makes me wonder whether the scum team is Quilford/Haylen.

VOTE: No lynch.

[Lunitawolf]

I have explained why Haylen is obviously cop,

or scum bussing a buddy.

I have explained that

if we lynch Thor now we will be better off in the long run.

I think it's safe to say that Haylen/Thor are not the scum team.

Why would Haylen come out strongly and throw Thor under the bus like that at MYLO?

If town mislynches today, scum wins. So if scum is going to pull a gambit, I'd think it would be for one that would win them the game, not one that would make it so they lose out on the option of getting the mislynch today and have to work to trick town again tomorrow...

[Lunitawolf]

"@Quilford Why do you think scum wouldn't kill you?

For someone who says in post 748 that "The scum kill is WIFOM," you're using it a lot.
- You say the scum kill of Effortless makes you suspect Thor.
- You presume to know how scum will kill tonight and that they'll kill Poro over Haylen (or you or anyone else)."

is a complete misrepresentation of what I have said.

Would you please try explaining it again then? Because that's how it's coming across to me.

Why do you think scum would kill Poro tonight and not someone else?

[Lunitawolf]

It's either you or Quilford. At this point, I'm guessing Quilford.

- He was too quick to accept Haylen's claim as cop.
- Too quick to call Thor the scummiest player.

In essence, Quilford knew Thor was busted, so the best play was to try to be as townie as possible so as to survive lylo. That's my best guess right now.

I'm not going to vote until Poro has time to come in and post his thoughts and suspicions in case he's the one killed tonight.

@Thor, I want to play with you sometime when you're on the side of good!

[Lunitawolf]

Quilford... UNVOTE.

Yes, we are lynching Thor today.

But YOU ARE HARMING TOWN by allowing Thor to cut off our conversation early with all of our town. We lose another town member tonight.

If Thor comes in here and hammers before you unvote, I am voting you tomorrow.

@Gen If you read this before Quilford gets here and unvotes, please unvote.

[Lunitawolf]

My gut wants to vote Quilford for allowing Thor to hammer and cut the day short before we could discuss things with Poro. But, at this point, since it's LYLO, I am going to take a step back and do some reading on Thor/Gen and Thor/Quil.

That mouse was really, really cute and made me want to forgive Thor... until I remembered he was trying to savagely murder all of us...AGAIN!

[Lunitawolf]

I feel exactly the same and I want to lynch Quil because gut is telling me he is scum but then also just the whole hammer and his play in the last 2 days has been suspicious!

When you go back and ISO also look at Hazard and Ozzie (that Quil replaced). I started to do that analysis today, but kept getting interrupted, but there are substantial posts from Ozzie, that we should take that into account too.

However saying that, Lunita, I had a run in with Travis on Day 1 and seeing as you took his place that makes me a tiny bit suspicious but also the fact that you and Thor wanted to hammer me on Day 2, when I blatently tried to point out his scuminess you disagreed which also makes me question your township?

It's fair to look back on Day 1. I can't answer questions about Travis' mindset, but if you see things that bother you, point them out and I'll try to address. If you remember, I was weirded out by one of his posts too.

And, I know I was wrong about Thor. I really thought he was town. He challenged me on my cases, made me think more critically, etc. (Like with my argument on Effortless, who became Poro, who became confirmed town).

I read up more on Thor and he really tunneled in on you Day 2 (and, yes, got me to buy into it.) That is actually giving me a more pro-town view of you because I was reading up on another game that recently completed where he was scum (he really *is* evil!) and he mentioned that when he replaced into that game as scum, he chose a townie target to start tunneling in on to get lynched (I can find the game for you later, if you want.) So, while I know scum do bus their partners, once I went back and re-read with that in mind, it didn't seem like that's what he was doing.

What I haven't gone back and checked yet, and want to, is what Quilford said about Thor prior to Haylen revealing herself as cop and saying that Thor is scum. From what I remember, prior to that Quil had been going after Haylen to get her lynched, and that was his primary target. I don't recall him saying Thor was scummy (but I need to confirm that). But, once Haylen said she was cop, Quil changed his tune.
- What is the scum motivation for that? If you know that it's likely the partner is busted, it makes sense to bus your partner at that time to come across as townie as possible so you're not suspected next.

More reading on my to-do list!

[Lunitawolf]

If I were scum, why would I not let us discuss things with Poro?

For the same reason Thor self-hammered.

More information helps town, hurts scum.

More information coming from a confirmed townie helps town, hurts scum.

More information coming from an experienced confirmed townie really helps town, really hurts scum.

Poro could have gone back and done the analysis we're doing now and helped us think through who the remaining scum was.

[Lunitawolf]

@quil Can link me/quote your posts expressing suspicion of Thor prior to Haylen saying she's cop please?

[Lunitawolf]

@Gen I'll go through your post in more detail either later tonight or tomorrow morning when I have a more solid block of time on my hand, and I will also add my own analysis on Quilfordl. I'm really getting the sense that he is the last scum.

[Lunitawolf]

@Quilford

Don't let this get lost in the shuffle. I still want this.... but given you haven't provided it, I suspect it's not there to be found. What I *do* remember is that you were trying very hard to get our cop lynched the day before. Yet suddenly once Haylen reveals herself as cop, you turn on Thor.

@quil Can link me/quote your posts expressing suspicion of Thor prior to Haylen saying she's cop please?

@Gen

Sorry for the delay on my analysis. I crashed last night, and my boss spring some last minute work on me that I need to get done this morning before our meeting. So, I won't be able to get to it until tonight. But I *promise* to post my analysis tonight!

Re: haylen saying I might be scum. This is the quote that spurred that from Thor before he was confirmed scum:

@Haylen - you do recognize that you big, brilliant insight on lizk I made too...without needing to claim it came from being a cop.
Lunita is still looking very town, but I've been saying that for a while.
Wolf and Quill are definitely the questionables - my money is that this gambit was not planned out as well as scum would have liked.

Haylen didn't have a definitive read on me, she was trying to figure things out (as we all are). Thor lumped his partner with someone else in that quote, to make it impossible to use to figure out who his partner is.

[Lunitawolf]

Okay, I'm convinced that Quilford, not Gen, is the last scum.

Part of my reason is gut, and part is for the reasons below:

- Quilford makes a big push to lynch Haylen on Day 2, that Thor ignores.
- Quilford is willing to lynch almost anyone on Day 2 just wanting to flip someone because the game is stagnating.... which is not a good town scumhunting strategy, especially as we hadn't found any scum yet.
- Quilford does mention needing to do an ISO of Thor (so I was wrong that he never said anything about Thor), but it reads more as a bus than a real suspicion. He says that Haylen and Gen are his top two scum suspects, but mentions he'll do an ISO on Thor as a by the by. Furthermore, Quil never *does* the ISO. When he posts again, he's right back on Haylen only.

- Thor comes in and immediately starts tunneling against Gen. While I know Thor would be willing to bus his partner, this doesn't seem like one of those situations where it's needed.
- Thor does a vote analysis to support his argument that Gen is looking for easy lynches here:

Here is the Hazard wagon at peak L-1:Ozzie72, Thomith, Haylen, Gen WolfHere is the Tomtih wagon at peak L-1:Hazard With a Glove, lizk000, TravisB, Gen_wolfhe has cast *both* L-1 votes in this game thus far.

Looking at the Hazard wagon, the scum partner has to be voting him (Ozzie/Quilford or Gen). However, my guess is that Ozzie/Quilford voted for his partner and then couldn't find an easy way to get off the wagon without drawing suspicion. And I don't think that putting people at L-1 is inherently scummy. Ozzie/Quilford voted for Hazard/Thor for a really weak reasonand mentions other suspects in his post … he never really focuses strongly on Hazard.
Poro comes in and gives his list of town-to-scum. He says Thor is the scummiest:

Ok finally list of everyone from town to scum. For those who want it.

effortless
Quilford
Lunita
Gen_Wolf
Haylen (IC)
racerman13
Thor665 (SE)

Yet, Quilford asks if Poro is willing to compromise with a Haylen lynch (thus trying to protect his partner from getting lynched)

Once Haylen comes out at cop, Quilford (1) accepts the cop claim too easily without caution and (2) turns on Thor way too strongly.

You were going to be lynched, anyway, so I don't see why Haylen!scum would feel the need to claim with a guilty on you. Unless she's bussing you as scum. And if she were it'll be really obvious if she's still alive for 3p LYLO. Additionally, I don't see why she would risk counterclaims. So yes, she's real. And you're scum.

Although some people had expressed suspicions about Thor, he was never at the point of almost being able to be lynched. And, before a compromise lynch of JetX was reached, Gen actually had more people on his wagon than Thor. This is a blatant attempt of scum trying to bus his buddy that's been caught.

I didn't like that Quilford didn't even consider the possibility of Haylen fake-claiming cop – especially given how hard Quilford was going after Haylen just the day before. Also, he was willing to risk town losing on a cop claim by the person he supposedly found the scummiest just the day before. No lynch was the safest move – Quil was just wanting to garner town points by advocating the lynching of Thor, who would flip scum and thus give Quil town cred into lylo.

Lastly, what bothers me as well is that in LYLO today he doesn't seem to be expressly any doubt. Our cop is dead, so Quilford if town could not know our alignments for sure. Yet he doesn't even seem to be interested in exploring it, so long as it's not him being voted.


I'm as comfortable as I'm going to get with this, so

VOTE: Quilford

[Lunitawolf]

Also, Quilford is just defending himself, not trying to find out who the last scum is... because he knows!

@Mod and all: I got the opportunity to go on a fun last-minute getaway this weekend, but I'll have limited to no internet access, so I will be V/LA starting Friday late afternoon until Monday afternoon when I recover from jetlag.

[Lunitawolf]

YAY!!!!! TOWN WINS!!! I'm win, and Gen, your post explaining why you're hammering was as town as it gets, so we were right! Great game, all!

[Lunitawolf]

EBWOP: I'm *town* so we win!

[Lunitawolf]

Likewise, was a lot of fun and look forward to playing with you all more!

Thor/Quil, do you mind if we see the scum QT please?

[Lunitawolf]

Thanks, Flameaxe for modding a fun game!

If you would post the scum QT that would be great. (I like to go back through and read up again afterwards to see what I can learn for next time).

Thanks!

[Lunitawolf]

That was fast, thanks! And yay to Genwolf for not being so quick to condemn me just because I wanted to lynch him the day before.