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Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:56 am

Post by Belisarius »

VOTE: Bluebird

By the command of Shakespeare's shade!
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Post Post #8 (isolation #1) » Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:26 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 6, Bluebird wrote:... What?

VOTE: Belisarius

Until you can prove what Shakspeare's shade has to do with any of this.
Also, I'm town.


Pretty nervous reaction there, I like my vote even more now.

Also, I'm Captain Basch.
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Post Post #20 (isolation #2) » Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:08 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 10, hiplop wrote:I thought it would be nice to get to know you guys; afterall we will be residing in the same town for a few days
1) Have anyone of you played any off-site games?
2)How about on-site games? If so; How Many?
3) How would you describe yourself as an individual?
4) What do you think you will be remembered for this game?
5) Why are you not scum? (:P)
6) Favourite pizza topping?
7) Favourite Movie?
8) Favourite Song/band/music genre?


I don't grok RQS, but I can't think of a good reason to be grumpy about it, so what the hell.

1. My first game was offsite. Due to account reuse and renaming it's now unreadable, but it was fun and it's where I came up with what I call the Hamlet gambit.
2. Uh...a lot. Not in several months, but most of my games are in my wiki page. I've also designed and modded a couple. I've gone through some pretty major life changes since my last game, including a brush with a death in the family, switching to a Dvorak keyboard (curse these long posts) and coming out as asexual.
3. A nerdy, foul-mouthed, gin-swilling clown.
4. I'll probably do something dumb on account of the gin
5. I'm always scum, even when I'm town. That much hasn't changed
6. Mushrooms. Not the hallucinogenic kind.
7. The Big Lebowski, I suppose.
8. Folk, esp. East Coast Canadian and Irish. The absence of any Halifax bands on Kim's list offends me. No Arlibido or Shyne Factory? Heresy!
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Post Post #24 (isolation #3) » Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:04 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 21, hiplop wrote:Your lack of vote is disturbing.


lawl
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Post Post #33 (isolation #4) » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:07 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 26, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Belisarius: Do you actually scumread Bluebird, or is your vote still random?


Random. I have one townread and no scumreads so far. That still helps. PoE is potent.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #5) » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:34 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 34, hiplop wrote:
In post 33, Belisarius wrote:
In post 26, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Belisarius: Do you actually scumread Bluebird, or is your vote still random?


Random. I have one townread and no scumreads so far. That still helps. PoE is potent.

If anyone is unsure of who to vote; consider the expierenced player ignoring common play/ my posts


Am I ignoring your posts? I hadn't noticed.

Secondly, by "common play", do you actually mean " current site meta"?
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Post Post #38 (isolation #6) » Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:26 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 37, Kim wrote:Bel (can I call you Bel?) shouldn't need my help defending himself


No, I don't

UNVOTE: bluebird

VOTE: Kim

Serious vote.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:30 am

Post by Belisarius »

I'm not voting Kim for white knighting, per se. I'm voting him for saying that he thought something might come from hiplop's vote on me, while trying to interfere with it by pooh-poohing it.

I'm also not happy about Kim pointing out "factually incorrect grounds", but that's mainly because I wanted to see how long it would take hiplop to realise it on his own.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:38 am

Post by Belisarius »

Actually, on that very subject, do you really think hiplop's vote on me could come from scum? Do you really think scum, who has to be extra careful to avoid being caught in a lie, could have a) been absent-minded enough to cast a vote on an easily disprovable basis, and b) fail to notice it for so long?

Before you play the WIFOM card, that kind of shit is really hard to fake as scum, can backfire very easily, and the only potential gain for scum-hiplop would be for someone to draw the same reasoning I just did. It is not reasonable to assume that scum is prescient enough to have predicted this sort of reaction, except possibly with a player they know really, really well. Given that I've been away from Mafia since the summer, I doubt even my former scumbuddies and hydra partners could forecast my thought processes so accurately.
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Post Post #70 (isolation #9) » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:19 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 64, Smudger wrote:can you give examples of how or where it has back fired?


No. I spoke of simple logic. Especially in a newbie game, where bad reasoning is more readily associated with dishonesty than simple human fallibility, using bad logic on purpose is a fool's game. While I'm less won't than Witch_Hunter to discount the possibility of a fool for on IC on a Shadeed's Law basis, Occam's Razor still points to an unintentional gaffe, and it still stands as unlikely in the extreme that even a Jesus-caliber scum player could have predicted that I or anyone would draw the conclusion that hiplop's vote on me was a township.
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Post Post #71 (isolation #10) » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:25 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 69, Some Random Mafia Player wrote:Belisarius (if bluebird flips scum)


Using associatives without a flip is a good way to create scum wins.

While a defensive response can be useful for ending RVS, RVS is now over, so it makes for a piss-poor case. If you're actually going to vote based on an associative, why should you care who flips first? From your stated PoV, my flip condemns or exonerates Bluebird just as neatly as his flip does for me.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:34 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 76, Smudger wrote:
In post 70, Belisarius wrote:Shadeed's Law basis, Occam's Razor


you might want to explain those to the uninitiated... just a thought


Shaheed's Law boils down to "If you
need
something to be true or you're fucked, assume it is." The full source is in my Wiki -- I think everyone on this site who uses it, learned it from me.

Occam's Razor states that when multiple explanations for an event are possible, the simplest is usually true.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #12) » Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:45 am

Post by Belisarius »

I'm not getting a Kim lynch today, am I?

I find the Smudger/SRMP interaction intriguing, but I'm not prepared to commit a vote at this time.

I'd like to hear more from Azorious and Noodles. You two are big fat question marks for me, and that makes me nervous.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #13) » Wed Jan 13, 2016 5:47 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 129, Witch_Hunter wrote:P-edit: @ Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?


His interference with a perceived gambit by hiplop makes no sense from a town perspective, but could come from scum trying to manipulate me while at the same time making a show of standing up to the IC.

There's also something else right on the tip of my tongue, but I've been trying to draw it out for days and it's being a stubborn git.

In post 137, AzoriusSenate wrote:I said the two people I currently want lynched are blue and kim. Do you have any questions for me? I feel like i've made it pretty clear my alignment already but i'm happy to ease your mind. Fire away.


I like both of those lynches myself, although Bluebird less, since defensiveness is the only angle on it.

Does your failure to mention Smudger or SRMP mean that you think their battle these last couple of pages is TvT?
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Post Post #174 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:59 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 155, hiplop wrote:Belisarius, you've been rather quiet about SRMP too. Why?


Because I still remember my first game, and how intimidated I was by an aggressive SE. (Who, for the record, turned out to be a pretty cool guy in the end).

Smudger's case looks really good on the surface, and in a non-newbie game I'd probably be on the wagon, but in this situation I remain unconvinced.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #15) » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:46 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 176, hiplop wrote:
In post 174, Belisarius wrote:
In post 155, hiplop wrote:Belisarius, you've been rather quiet about SRMP too. Why?


Because I still remember my first game, and how intimidated I was by an aggressive SE. (Who, for the record, turned out to be a pretty cool guy in the end).

Smudger's case looks really good on the surface, and in a non-newbie game I'd probably be on the wagon, but in this situation I remain unconvinced.

Acceptable answer, but why did you wait until being prodded to say it?


I wanted to give it more time to play out, and I didn't want to fuck Smudger's play the exact way I growled at Kim for fucking yours. L-1, however, is not the time to play the waiting game
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Post Post #208 (isolation #16) » Thu Jan 14, 2016 4:48 pm

Post by Belisarius »

I withdraw my objection to the SRMP lynch. Town doesn't give up like that. It's not exactly optimal informatiot-denial play for scum in this gamestate either, but scum does sometimes fold faster than Superman on laundry day due to the negative emotional valence of playing the "bad guy."

In my first newbie game on site, both scum employed French battle tactics.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #17) » Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:00 am

Post by Belisarius »

FMPOV, nothing has changed since Yesterday. I can't pull any useful information from the SRMP lynch since it was basically unanimous.

I still want to lynch either Kim or Bluebird, and my brain's still being an asshole about letting me remember what it was that made me so sure Kim's scum.
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Post Post #241 (isolation #18) » Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:00 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 235, AzoriusSenate wrote:
In post 233, Belisarius wrote:FMPOV, nothing has changed since Yesterday. I can't pull any useful information from the SRMP lynch since it was basically unanimous.

I still want to lynch either Kim or Bluebird, and my brain's still being an asshole about letting me remember what it was that made me so sure Kim's scum.


This post seems kind of lazy. Could you elaborate on your reads more?

Nothing complex; 6 non-me players - two townreads (Witch and Smudger) = a lynch pool of four. Of those four, one is a scumread, two are null, and one is Bluebird. Her defensive-looking response to my RVS vote is quite possibly the shittest case in the universe, but there are two scum alive, so I need at least two in my lynch pool. Yes, I'd like to have something better to go on, but I haven't got that, so I move on with what I've got.
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Post Post #267 (isolation #19) » Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:15 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 263, Bluebird wrote:@
Kim
Hope your mom will get better

I'd like to ask why everyone is suspicious of me. I'm reading my name at the top of everyone's lists, but nobody's giving any reasons.

I'm still looking at Belisarius, Kim, Azorius, and Smudger. I'm completely convinced Smudger is scum, but I'm still reasoning out the others.


I've admitted that my suspicion of you is based on the initial defensive reaction, which is not necessarily alignment-indicative, and that's why I'd rather lynch Kim. The rest is PoE, although I don't know what to think of Az's attack on me today. I townread hiplop for doing the exact same thing -- literally the exact same reasoning -- but Az knows that. If it's an attempt by scum to get a townread, it's a shitty one, but a townie just putting a lot of lead in the air to see what sticks would probably come up with something more unique, so I can't really grok where it's coming from.

I also don't like the fact that I keep forgetting that Curly is in this game, so your hold on the #2 slot on my hit list is pretty shaky.

I'd be hesitant to even consider Witch, he was towny as fuck Yesterday, and I doubt scum-Witch would permit the hiplop kill after the way he, hip, and Smudger had their heads together yesterday. A 3-man "townbloc" containing scum would be a hell of a powerful tool with 4 needed to lynch...hell, I'd probably fall in with them if they worked together today like they did yesterday, and then scum would effectively control the lynch D2.

You won't convince me that Smudger is scum this game. I've tried to fake the kind of passion that was behind his attack on SRMP yesterday and it's not easy. I can't do it.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #20) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:24 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 304, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:That being said @Belisarius any response to any of this?


What response does it need? It's obvBollocks.

Az is voting me because hiplop was suspcious of me...from the time he voted me for not voting until the time he realised that I had, in fact, been voting at the time. After that, I saw no further indication from hiplop that I was anything but null.

A universal townread--and the IC in a newbie game to boot--died N1. This is not surprising as any scum except maybe Witch or Smudger would make that kill in order to remove an unlynchable player from the game. Saying that I in particular would have special reason to ice hiplop but NOBODY ELSE WOULD EVER DO THAT is so illogical I can't even wrap my head around the kind of thought process that could possibly lead someone to that conclusion. I can't respond to that any more than I could to an argument that goes "Lynch Beli, the leprechaun told me to!"
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Post Post #313 (isolation #21) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:28 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 307, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:he hasn't done anything town-like on this day.


Oh? Working out that Smudger or Witch wouldn't have broken up a faux-townbloc by killing hiplop isn't trying to figure out the game? Explain this logic in baby talk.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #22) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:29 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 314, AzoriusSenate wrote:"he retracted his fos so who cares."


He "retracted his fos" because it was based on a provably factually inaccurate basis.

This was discussed in detail on D1.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #23) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:10 pm

Post by Belisarius »

That's pretty vague. The only actual reason you've stated is "hiplop died because he was the only one who fired shots at Beli", conveniently leaving out that it was based on a false premise.

The feels is an even shittier reason for a lynch than my reason for putting Bluebird in the #2 slot on my hit list.

Join me against Kim. It is your destiny. Together we shall rule this galaxy as father and son!
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Post Post #321 (isolation #24) » Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:38 pm

Post by Belisarius »

Tunnel harder.
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Post Post #332 (isolation #25) » Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:30 am

Post by Belisarius »

In post 326, Smudger wrote:
In post 233, Belisarius wrote:and my brain's still being an asshole about letting me remember what it was that made me so sure Kim's scum.


any clarity Bel?


I think if it was going to pop, it would have by now, and it hasn't. Nevertheless, Kim's stepping in on what may have been a gambit by hiplop is to date the most solid action I've seen with scum motivation behind it.

I also think that Az's attack on me is misguided town, not scum. I'd rather not lynch him today.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:31 am

Post by Belisarius »

I'm a VT.

Scumteam stands as Kim and Bluebird. Curly's play today is town.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #27) » Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:16 pm

Post by Belisarius »

In post 537, Smudger wrote:ok I will go read the Mafia Thread etc...


It's probably the only scum PT you'll ever read containing an educated discussion about Mozart.

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