Team Mafia 2018: Mafiosi Revolution (Over)

[implosion]

Hello.

I have no time to read the game tonight!

But I will tomorrow.

[implosion]

I'm at work and shouldn't actually be posting in the first place and am probably going to limit the amount that i let this distract me.

I'm pretty confident that this is town-Transcend, and I have a not-bad track record of reading him iirc.
It's town keely and town aristophanes as well. Pretty confident in those three.
I don't buy anyone who claims to have a strong read on mulch yet but would happily vote him purely for game meta (and I don't think he's done anything he isn't capable of faking yet, at least that I've seen), and cabd's first reads post is as other people have already pointed out really sketchy.

Gonna wait until I can actually read the whole thing after work as opposed to half-skim-half-reading half of the pages. I also would love some justification from anyone who townread Ginngie so far (particularly from cabd).

[implosion]

Why is Transcend scum

Same reason that Justin Bieber is a good artist.

how are you sure Aristophanes is town off of one post

Who said it had anything to do with that post?

why are you willing to vote me if you don't scumread me

I answered this in the next four words of that sentence

[implosion]

(In seriousness, I'll justify all of my stances after work, since that will take more attention than I can devote until then)

[implosion]

why'd you choose a normal game before roles went out?

Kagami: could you take a stab at convincing me why Transcend isn't scum?

I dislike opens and complicated setups

Okay.

Why did you specifically choose *this* normal before roles went out?

[implosion]

why'd you choose a normal game before roles went out?

Kagami: could you take a stab at convincing me why Transcend isn't scum?

I dislike opens and complicated setups

Okay.

Why did you specifically choose *this* normal before roles went out?

And why not invention mafia, which was explicitly not going to be a very complicated setup?

[implosion]

I didn’t care which normal I was going to pick, I let my partners choose that

So, your teammates assigned you to this mini normal over the other before receiving role PMs?

Not really buying this tbh.

[implosion]

So you/your team chose you for this mini normal over the other after you saw what your roles in both normals were?

[implosion]

@kmd, keely is cheetory. And I'll justify things in ~4 hours.
Also,

Why does scum-mulch pull the whole mason thing just to come out and say Tor is town regardless of his own alignment? How does that help him?

This is something he has explicitly stated he just does sometimes.

[implosion]

This is something he has explicitly stated he just does sometimes.

I have?

Yep.

[implosion]

I mean.

The benefit of doing it as scum is pretty damn apparent from the argument that you make in that thread. You "confirm yourself as town."

I personally think it's meaningless in terms of reading into your alignment, whereas it could potentially be very useful for reading into the alignment of someone without the same meta of having done it before.

[implosion]

I mean.

The benefit of doing it as scum is pretty damn apparent from the argument that you make in that thread. You "confirm yourself as town."

I personally think it's meaningless in terms of reading into your alignment, whereas it could potentially be very useful for reading into the alignment of someone without the same meta of having done it before.

Did you read the thread or are you just bullshitting?

did *you* read the thread and somehow miss my response to you in it?

Or your response to me, wherein you explicitly say it's not worth it to put any weight into mason claims like this from anyone else's point of view other than the person claiming??

[implosion]

I think I'd like implosion to complete wherever he was going in his dialogue with Mulch.

Sure. I intentionally cut it off because I was pretty sure it wasn't going anywhere and I don't want to take over the thread with a discussion that I think is mostly meaningless.

The entire thread was dedicated to how if you knew you were town, claiming a mason with someone and pretending you are masons makes it so that town as a collective has a better chance to hit scum. So I'm confused at how you tried to discredit someone that townread me because of it based on the thread. Because the premise is 1) Lynching scum better 2) You have to be town in the first place. This is why I'm asking if you actually read the thread, because you trying to say "oh, Mulch would be confirmed town as scum" based on THAT THREAD which had the premise of the seeker being town makes no sense to me. Of course if I'm scum and I try to mason someone I'm going to be town, but that has nothing to do with the thread at all

The reason that I mentioned that thread in the first place was entirely to give context that is, IMO, necessary to accurately interpret your mason claim. That context is not the details of the thread or your argument: it's just that you've thought about and acted out fakeclaiming masons before, in general, not necessarily only as town.

I think it means that the mason claim is null, because it's something you've thought a lot about. I think someone as seemingly self-meta-aware as you would know the advantage you could gain in your scumgames by claiming masons like that and then saying you were doing it because you were town and have a history of doing it as town; if you only ever did it as town and repeatedly pointed out how you only ever did it as town, it would be a trust tell. Given what you're claiming, that you've mostly done it as town but occasionally as scum, it isn't foolproof, and if there's one game where I think you or anyone would be likely to intentionally break a meta pattern like that in a scumgame it would be team mafia. Which is why I don't trust it as a reason to towntell you. That said, I don't think it's scummy. I think it's meaningless. I personally am actually not really sure how to reliably read you. I can see the point made earlier about you potentially not wanting to give toranga towncred as scum but it's not something I think you're that unlikely to do as scum, especially if you think toranga is going to be townread anyway.

Will be home to complete thoughts in ~hour and a half.

[implosion]

Alright. Real content time.

Mulch is an asshole and therefore probably town. Sigh.

It's gonna be one of THOSE games.

As much as I agree with the sentiment, this read feels a bit... conciliatory to me. It's something I can see from Cabd-scum who doesn't think he can get away with scumreading Mulch. Definitely not strong though.

Townreads on Gin and Spif, minor townreade on transcend. Rest is static noise at the moment.

Gin and spif is an interesting pair, and I'd like the justifications for having those reads at that point.

Would like to sort Kagami and then power through the game if they're town, and powerlynch them day one otherwise.

This is the main line in Cabd's post that rings scummy to me. It seems very arbitrary coming from town; even if they have history, Kagami hadn't exactly made a significant entrance to the game. It just feels a bit off to offer to power through the game with them at that point. Idk, the line in general just feels like something that comes from scum trying to look like they have real plans to sort the game out than from town who actually has that plan. I don't think it's as strong as I thought it was when I read the post the first time though.

[implosion]

The initial mulch likely-scum read and the aristophanes locktown read are both crossgame meta. Mulch is I think pretty likely to be handed a scum role PM, given his track record afaik on MS of being repeatedly mislynched as town and repeatedly winning as scum. This is of course not a strong read, but an alright starting point. Aristophanes however is a strong read. I actually cannot imagine his team handing him a scum role PM. He's too infamously easy to read. This is also slightly the basis of the cheetory read, but mostly he just looks like how he always does as town. Transcend will be a bit tougher to enunciate, but a lot of his posting feels not-awkward to me, and I remember it feeling awkward in his scumgame. Some examples are 194 and 196, 259, his overall trajectory on Mulch.

[implosion]

I'd like the justifications for having those reads at that point

I think Team Mafia needs stricter participation requirements

You guys should stop talking to each other

I call it the "play nice" towntell; it doesn't work on newer players but for older players I tend to find active attempt to reduce apathy to be town-motivated.


As for Gin, 405 rings very true to the towngin I just modded for, and also have a similar aspect of the above tell; which I've seen her do before as town:

you can meme all you want and spam the thread with a pointless argument with Mulch when you know it'll just fog up the thread with nothing being accomplished.

It's not gonna change the fact that you're doing all that to ignore a scum read by someone who gets you every time lmao

Yeah, I can buy those as at least weak towntells. Will need to mull over them a bit. Interesting tell.

I also will agree with the general sentiment of Toranga-town.

[implosion]

But I do want to ask why haven't you considered it wasn't random and that I actually think Toranaga is town and thought we could mason

I think it's entirely possible. But you doing it as scum is also possible. I don't think Toranga was randomly selected either way.

[implosion]

@Ginngie I found this post from Cheetory compelling

Okay cheet your job is to keep me sane. Any time I am getting not-sane, please pull me back from the brink.

Do you think it's possible for me to have a very good read on kagami given their posts to present?

Okay. Your job is to start working on being town if you are town then.
(:

I don't really have much experience with Kagami, but I think there are things that they've posted that are pokeable in general. The defense on Una was interesting enough, wouldn't be hard to get some kind of feeling for whether they're legitimately trying to sort Una there or if they're just WKing to generate content. Could ask them about an update on his Spiff read. Or what about the Mulch case that Transcend posted that they finds compelling.

I just kind of overly feel like your post was easy commentary and the Kagami thing was at best kind of lazy and at worst you, as scum, trying to overexplain your thought process to seem like you're doing something when you're not really doing anything.

You said you haven't read yet which is all fine and dandy, but you have my attention for when you do catch-up atm. And I'm unfortunately too dumb to just let things happen so I could get a more natural read on you :')

I haven't read the last 5 or so pages though so maybe my opinions will change who knows!??!?!?!?

Yeah this post is pretty good.

It's potentially very telling how Cabd and Kagami wind up interacting as the game goes on. For both of them.

[implosion]

VOTE: Una

[implosion]

It's really interesting that Una listed Spiffeh and Chara twice in his early readslist, once in 209 and once in 211. Don't know if it means anything? It's a bit weird in the first place that he interpreted Transcend's request as asking for a full reads list. But meh.

Keely, is 217 a townpost or bullshit?

[implosion]

Implosion you do realize Transcend's forte as scum is having good tone

This quote from me in the game I played with Transcend-scum kind of resonates here:

As for Transcend: I still think he's scummy. Frankly it feels like he's trying way too hard relative to how it felt like he played in my other game with him. In that game he seemed overall irreverent, making snyde comments and commenting on a sort of arbitrary subset of the things that were being said (of course it was a large normal so there's a difference there but etc). Something feels off about his entry into the game and I think it's that it feels like he's going "hey guys I have reads look at me."

I feel like he isn't trying hard here, and he has the right mix of irreverence and pointedness from what I think his town game is supposed to look like.

[implosion]

@Transcend: did you ever respond to post 554? If not, can you, and if so, can you point me to it?

[implosion]

Spoiler: Some questions/accusations for Chara

I should have chosen scum and get everyone surprised but yeah :<

me too.

Are you particularly known for preferring town over scum/playing better as town than as scum, particularly compared to your teammates? Because I'm not aware of any such reputation. If so, can anyone corroborate? If not, then why would you choosing scum surprise anyone?

Would also lynch chara

one of Transcend's off games or scum.

I'm very skeptical of this post. Your iso up to this point looks entirely neutral to me and I cannot imagine what Transcend is supposed to be townreading you off of at this point, if I'm reading this correctly that you think he should be townreading you or at least not-scumreading you based on those posts. Do you think you committed any significant tells in your few posts up to the point where you made this one? What in those posts should have prevented Transcend from calling you scum?

I'm pretty confident that this is town-Transcend, and I have a not-bad track record of reading him iirc.

i'm looking to be proven wrong on this point. talk to me about this.

why'd you choose a normal game before roles went out?

Kagami: could you take a stab at convincing me why Transcend isn't scum?

This trajectory on Transcend feels very significantly off to me as well. It feels like you're looking for dialogue on Transcend for the sake of looking like you're thinking about your read. Do you actually think you're going to be swayed by Kagami or my arguments? This seems very inconsistent with how you said you were going to permatunnel Transcend. Like, the move in general coincedentally reminds me really strongly of another thing that Transcend did in that game I linked that I thought was sketchy. He, early on in the game, said he was going to be approaching the game differently than usual, then started a teamhunting based approach. It felt... vapid. And this feels similarly like a way for you to reframe the game as scum so you have something to do (i.e., tunnel transcend and focus on talking to people about transcend). That said, you are giving other reads, but they seem somewhat few and far between/a lot of them are popular opinion. Although I do somewhat like the firebringer read but not strongly.

Is there a particular reason you're so focused on sorting him in particular? Are you mainly trying to look for reasons to townread him, or are you trying to convince people like Kagami and I that we're wrong? It all just feels off.

[implosion]

I think cabd's ginngie towntell is a bit better than his spiffeh towntell. That said, the best way I have to read ginngie is most likely to just dialogue with her later, which I'm in no particular rush to do.

I think my townset right now is aristophanes/cheetory/toranga/transcend/firebringer vaguely in order of confidence. I sort of want to add una to it for that one post (:s) but i will wait on cheetory's case before thinking more about that slot. Cabd I think needs more data to be readable.

Kagami is really underwhelming to me so far. I don't really remember their play that well from the one game I played with them a couple years back but it's not a slot that I can see significant townreads on.
Spiffeh is also underwhelming so far. His one interesting point is the one toward Kmd but I don't think it's an especially difficult point to make as scum. Him deciding to call me "town before the game started" 800 posts in is also a little bit sketchy; if he had that opinion, I see little reason for him not to have expounded it earlier before people were starting to townread me, similar to how I made a point to mention Aristophanes-town early so as to make a point. But different strokes etc perhaps.
Kmd is i think readable off his posting so far but I haven't gotten a foothold yet.

No that isn't everyone.

[implosion]

To more or less paraphrase the previous post:

Transcend, I like your reads list; what are you reading Kagami off of?

[implosion]

When I say I'm in no particular rush to do it I mean that it can happen whenever it happens~

And my life's pretty good I think.

If I have scumleans atm they'd be vaguely chara and maybe mulch but not really, and also maybe cabd but not really. Basically all of those people I can actually easily see turning into strong reads either way based on upcoming events. But it's not really accurate to say that I'm scumreading anyone right now. I'm pretty reluctant these days to actually scumread anyone early d1 unless something sort of falls into place, which it does sometimes but not always. I mostly just accumulate townreads.

[implosion]

That said, I am going to sleep now, so further tomfoolery will have to wait until tomorrow.

Ginngie, if you want to dialogue tomorrow evening, I will be waiting.

[implosion]

I actually vaguely think spiffeh can be town for page 38? At least I think I buy what he's saying.

I also think 979 from Kmd is potentially fairly town. Seems like a fairly bold elaboration to make if Kmd is scum.

[implosion]

VOTE: Mulch

[implosion]

I can also see myself hopping on the Kagami wagon in the near future in theory.

[implosion]

It was a "claim" that was obviously never going to stick unless they are either actually masons or scum together in which case why claim so early? So what is he even trying to accomplish as scum?

Basically, free towncred; I can easily see scum-mulch doing this to town-Toranga if he assumes that toranga is going to be townread either way, especially since mulch may have thought of it during pregame/may have been thinking about it before then when he saw he was getting scum role PM. Basically I just don't think there's any negative utility to doing it as scum if he was under the assumption that toranga was going to be obvtown, and there is simple positive utility in it giving him potential towncred/him later being able to say "look at me, i broke my scum meta!"

I sort of agree that it's somewhat unlikely to come from scum mulch who thinks he might have been able to get away with a mislynch on toranga.

[implosion]

When Mulch is gone I will take his place.

this post would be better if it had been written in iambic pentameter.

I lean more strongly toward Kmd-town right now. Will justify/respond to Patrick tonight.

Would like to see Transcend link a Mulch game where he does something like this as promised.

[implosion]

Elaboration on Kmd-town for Patrick.

I mean I wouldn't call it turmoil. Mathdino and I actually sync pretty well together from the little bit of recent experience I have with him. It's just we got opposite impressions on this game when we read it. He has more experience with unabomb than I do so maybe I need to default to him on that read. I think we still disagree on Transcend but we haven't talked much about him. We just disagreed on some reads. It's bound to happen from time to time. I'd be pretty shocked if anyone could honestly tell me that across five games their teams agree on every read. The difference is probably that Mathdino is more vocal and assertive than most people. Which is fine. It just came off wrong I think.

This isn't the quote that I read it off of originally (it's in fact Kmd's response to Patrick) but I think it's actually a stronger example. There are two parts to this. Part one is that this is a fairly complicated team dynamic to fake from someone who isn't under any pressure whatsoever. I don't know Kmd's scum game well or anything, but going out of your way to offer this elaborate justification of Math and him usually syncing but not being able to here and being somewhat unsure of what to do because of conflicting reads but still offering original insight is I think not something that scum would do in the situation Kmd is in. It's just so proactive beyond what I think scum has any need to do. It's the sort of thing that has more obvious town motivation than scum motivation because scum would have less motivation to put themself out there with something like this that could easily be read into both ways.

The second part is the last few sentences of the pots here, Kmd saying they'd be shocked if anyone had five players agree on every read. It's just a very bold thing for scum to say, in a sense; like the previous point I think it's something that scum would be afraid to say for fear of drawing flak from players advancing the argument about this being similar to hydra dissonance being a scumtell.

[implosion]

Ginngie saying she has more of an active social life now is completely legitimate and kind of a silly thing to prod so much at tbh.

[implosion]

Let's just like.

Disband the two big wagons?

Pls?

[implosion]

I'm somewhat thinking Chara + Kagami + ???? scum atm.

[implosion]

I'm somewhat thinking Chara + Kagami + ???? scum atm.

Is Cabd not in your pool atm?

I mean, he is ish? But see softclaim etc which I was avoiding elaborating on but shrug. I was a bit unsure what to think about him since the first time he softclaimed earlier which I'm not sure if people caught but assume most did.

Third could be like, ginngie? or spiffeh? or patrick? Or mulch of course, but if I'm right on Kagami i'm not sure if they'd bus this way, if I'm trying to theorize a full team. There are also some other townreads I could be wrong on like una or firebringer but cabd is probably town unless something weird goes on.

[implosion]

I think his interactions with transcend are very towny;gamesolvey;highly evaluative

Can you give some examples?

I've felt like most of Mulch and Transcend's direct interactions have been really not that deep throwing shade at each other. I don't remember Mulch giving any reasons to scumread transcend that felt particularly deeply evaluative but i may easily be missing something in the deluge.

[implosion]

transcend's push on mulch is too strong for the little transcend has presented as reasons,

Well yeah but
1) the same imo can be said about mulch's push on transcend from what I can remember of it, and
2) when transcend said he wanted to case mulch, i.e. elaborate on his reasons more, mulch said transcend would be claiming scum by casing him??? so like, mulch apparently doesn't think town-transcend would be elaborating on reasons for scumreading him. So that's not a good reason for mulch to scumread transcend. There's sort of a chicken and egg problem of how the mutual scumread developed.

the 'reaction test' with calling me scum and then pushing mulch for not immediately acting out on it is cringe level scummy if you ask me.

I agree it's really strange. And somewhat scummy on face. I mostly read it as joking around, honestly, not as being entirely serious. And it's a very easy thing to push against if Mulch is scum, and so I don't really see Mulch's immediate reaction and explanation as hard to fabricate. It is still the one thing that makes me think twice on Transcend like I think I've mentioned but none of his other posting has felt off to me at all and I still don't remember Mulch ever giving satisfactory justifications for Transcend being scum.

The difference between the two for me is that I haven't seen anything from Mulch that I've felt strongly like I can read into either way (though I have seen some weak things) but I feel like I've seen Transcend towntell strongly.

[implosion]

can you go over transcend's towntells for me

I'll be sure to pick it up if they're true towntells...

Can you give some examples?

I asked first :X

I've given some not-very-specific references (here, here) but can elaborate more tonight if you want.

Also need to elaborate thoughts on Kagami tonight.

[implosion]

I'm not gonna get lynched.

Also this one but less overt, but yeaaaaaaahhh.

yeah this is the one I was referring to.

Not convinced Kagami holds off posting this in the main thread as scum; someone else had already mentioned seeing a softclaim (iirc it was someone else at least) and there are so many pairs of eyes of each alignment that can potentially find a softclaim that I'm not convinced scum would feel the need to share it privately; obviously going public is a bit of a risk WRT how people react though. Tbh i felt a little bit awkward seeing the softclaim and not mentioning anything and I think my initial reaction was that it might have been scummy because I'm not sure why you'd softclaim in team mafia and I figured everyone else saw it but I still held off mentioning it because shrug.

But etc. Not really worth thinking about at this point.

[implosion]

The odds of a team having N scum PMs is as follows, btw:

0: 30.0%
1: 40.8%
2: 22.3%
3: 6.1%
4: 0.83%
5: 0.05%

Thoughts on Kagami are more muddled than they were a few hours ago. I'm offput by their insistence on the team-meta part of the Mulch read; it's not entirely inaccurate but it feels like resting on laurels and a very easy argument to make as scum. Still thinking about the reads list.

@Toranga: I'll still give you what you asked for wrt transcend later if you want it, but I still want those example from you wrt mulch being consistently highly evaluative/gamesolvey here in a way you think he can't fake. I still see no material reason to townread Mulch.

[implosion]

I still see no material reason to townread Mulch.

Cause your bad

you literally have said you take pride in playing the same as town and scum?

[implosion]

I shouldn’t be obv town, I’m town enough to not be lynched but not killed.

So understand that you’re not gonna do anything with that vote on me and focus elsewhere

I really don't understand this statement. "You're not gonna do anything with that vote, just move it off me" is the kind of thing that obvtown says. Someone proclaiming themself to be "not obvtown but town enough to avoid being lynched" is like... a very sensible place for a vote? You aren't obvtown. I agree with that sentiment. But if you aren't obvtown, doesn't that mean that you should be one of the people that others should be trying to actively sort, i.e. shouldn't you be a good place for a vote from someone who's personally unsure on you?

More than likely we are doing Cabd or

?????????
Do you really think there is any chance in hell we're lynching Cabd at this point????

[implosion]

New current townset fwiw is {cabd, Kmd, cheetory, aristophanes, toranga, eddie cane, spiffeh, patrick, una} again vaguely in order of confidence.

Leaving an other set of {Kagami, Mulch, Ginngie, Chara, Firebringer}.

Firebringer was weak in the townset before but I don't think I've seen anything from him since then that's reinforced it. Una is also notably very weak because it's literally entirely off of the i-wouldn't-pick-scum post sounding pretty genuine but apart from that he could totally be scum.

Kmd i personally think is just blatantly obvtown.

[implosion]

And Mulch, because I do want a response to this:

You've called me bad for not townreading you here. You've also said (either here or in some game that was referenced in meta, idr) that you consider your town and scum games very hard to distinguish. Do you not see how these are contradictory? You obviously love to indulge in self-meta; why should I be townreading you so easily in this game? What have you done here that you

aren't

willing or able to fake as scum?

[implosion]

I'm still not sure whether to read it as a claim or just a test of Kagami's alignment? It seems like Ginnstie isn't sure and 2 people are still voting Cabd, both of whom have posted since the alledged claim. That's mainly why I was looking for it to be confirmed or denied.

Well, shrug i guess. I'm assuming it's an actual claim for now but we'll see. Even if he retracts it that'd be a pretty damn bold thing to do as scum.

(That said of course, no rush, cabd.)

[implosion]

I tried to deliberately avoid calling Trans town OR scum, because I wanted him to feel he has me in his pocket.

Is there a reason you choose to share this now, other than eddie subbing in?

[implosion]

alright i feel nominally better about una town

and generically eugh at the ginngie v spiffeh stuff. I think I can see either of them as scum here from this in isolation.

Ginngie, do you "fake aggression" when you are scum?

[implosion]

i'm an idiot for forgetting to check the thread ~2 hours ago.

I basically wholeheartedly agree with Patrick's assessment of Mulch's recent posting. I want to call it town, but I don't know if I can. But:

i don't get mislynched as town. ever. i get wagoned and suspected plenty. there's a difference. i obvtown when it matters.

Unvote

VOTE: Chara

[implosion]

gonna do reads a bit later discussing a replacement for trans

but anyways

hey fire can trans read u? y/n

I think he has a good track record but I have no idea what his method of reading me is.

Is it just me or is this post actually INCREDIBLY sketchy. Like, really, really impressively sketchy for how short of a post it is.

Imagine you're you, and you're town, and someone asks "hey, can my teammate read you?"

The answer is probably yes or no, or maybe something more complicated. If it's yes, then if you're town, you'll confidently say yes, they can, or you'll give the kind of hedge that Mulch did with regards to boonskiies (i.e. "yes, they can read me, and if they scumread me it likely means their teammate in this game is scum"). If the answer is no, and you're town, you'll say they can't read you. But if you're scum, it can be an awkward question to answer if the actual answer is yes, for obvious reasons: if you can't justify scumreading the person in question, then them giving a scumread on you is suddenly tantamount to a death sentence, as you've essentially given that person your blessing to give a read on you.

Which brings us to this post by Firebringer. "I have no idea what his method of reading me is." Why do you bring that up as town? It just seems so, so much more likely to be something at the forefront of your mind as scum, when you know you have to say the person can read you but you feel like you want to discredit them in case they turn against you.

I might be completely making the significance of this up so opinions etc thank you

[implosion]

That's incorrect I'm scumreading 2/4 people that vote me

I mean you scum read Transcend (Eddie's predecessor) HARD until he broke the rules by proving he was being genuine so not much you can do about that one

And implosion is just obviously town

And this is also quite quite sketchy. I liked spiffeh's disengagement with Ginngie iirc. But this attack against mulch is at the very least bad, if not scummy. You don't get to phrase the attack like this:

Mulch why is everyone that votes for you/calls you scum automatically scum?

when there are exceptions, even if you think those exceptions are "obvious"... especially if, when taking those exceptions out, it only applies to two people??

Like I sort of have a difficult time believing Spiff is being genuine with this slight. But it's not the kind of thing that he has a whole ton of motivation to post as scum, either?

[implosion]

The thing about the "Chara wouldn't have picked scum" argument in general is that it's kind of wrong?

Sure, Chara is self-admittedly bad at scum. But it also self-admittedly enjoys scum. And so if their team cared more about having fun than strictly having the highest probability of winning team mafia then etc.

As for the "i can obvtown in the right circumstances" i see no reason for us to not put that claim to the test?

[implosion]

this is an argument to wagon me, not an argument for why i'm actually scum. you've presented a hypothetical, that i'd care more about fun than i would about winning, and suggested that you see if it's true. it's not compelling and it makes me wonder if you're scum after all. which is entirely possible. :>

Yeah, my argument for you being scum is that i still have lingering doubts about that wall i posted earlier that you responded to + the poe is shrinking in and i have distinctly seen nothing from you that makes me think town. None of your selfmeta-ish things have given me pings of "this is most likely genuine" like spiffeh's did earlier.

[implosion]

Vague assorted modern thoughts.

I could join the Kagami wagon but I don't quite want the day to end yet (and do not trust an l-2 wagon to not blow up), I think we're in a fairly productive spot right now.

I agree with Keely that my (and perhaps the Collective's?) townread on Toranga is rusting a bit with time. Ari as well to an extent but like, the point with Ari is that whether we ever lynch Ari is something that we can put off until tomorrow anyway even disregarding the whole team mafia meta arguments.

I think Kmd is actually my strongest townread atm.

Ginngie is townish now too which makes things eargh.

[implosion]

Kmd is pretty unquestionably town to me.
Cheetory is continually looking how I expect him to look.
Aristophanes and Cabd are strictly off the table today and probably both town.
Toranga and Eddie are still pretty confidently town from their early games.
Spiffeh and Ginngie have both done things that make me kind of feel both ways. Ginngie is probably a bit unlikely to take scum and spiffeh's selfmetaish talk over the past while has felt mostly genuine? He's probably still a decent candidate for scum though just on the basis of his scumgame being good. I don't know if any of this stuff is really solidly outside of his scum range.
Patrick is sort of gut town and probably i need to look more into him?

i just found a dota game though so i'll continue this later but basically i hunt mostly by townhunting and just haven't seen things from you yet.

[implosion]

Yo.

I’m phone so no real content but I feel a bit incrementally better about mulch from the last couple pages.

Anyone who strongly thinks Kagami is town has until I get home in a couple hours to convince me not to join the wagon bc the only reason I remember anyone saying is liking their entrance and I remember finding it mediocre.

[implosion]

The number of people hopping on because "lolPoE" and "shrug I don't townread him" is kind of concerning and feels kind of weak given that this is Team Mafia and I've been kind of expecting town to be tryharding here?

Chara and Ginngie it's like, okay, sure I understand context for these [and I hope Chara eventually follows through on that casing that it promised], but implosion doing that feels really weird if he hasn't established reasoning for why Kagami is scum before now.

This is fair. I have had vague reasons for a while beyond just lolPoE but I haven't really synthesized them well which I'll try to do in the next hour. I'd like to say that my lessened reluctance to voting is because Mulch has acted somewhat townier and part of what's holding me back on Kagami scum is also being unsure on Mulch and thinking they aren't scum together, but the real reason is just that i am giving in to a whim and impatience. Although if you as you just said want to draw out the day longer I'm fine with it.

[implosion]

Eddie, you asked me about scummy things Implosion has done. I really should dig deeper on him anyway because my gut is telling me he has a decent chance of being scum here. Far from my strongest scum read, but enough to be worth looking into. So...
-I hate to keep going back to this, but I didn't like the way he reacted to Mulch's whole mason claim thing. It seemed like he was trying to fake an easy opinion by shrugging it off as "well that's just Mulch". See where he said:

This is something he has explicitly stated he just does sometimes.

And Mulch answered with simply "I have?". It feels like he saw what happened and decided what stance to take without thinking critically about it. And then after that, he said that Mulch was after town cred. That makes no sense to me considering Mulch's line of reasoning was even if he (Mulch) flips scum, we should still treat Tora as confirmed town. It just doesn't feel like Implosion is actively sorting here.

I don't see how my opinion on this is an "easy opinion"; it's somewhat nuanced, specifically that I don't think that it's alignment-indicative for Mulch but I can understand why some people would think it is, given that it could easily be alignment-indicative for a random player off the street.

I don't think I ever said that Mulch is after town cred; what I said is that *if* he's scum, then that's his likely motivation. Basically it's just a thing that he's probably perfectly capable of faking for towncred, not necessarily that he is. I might have said that I leaned that way at some point but like, I really think that thing is just not worth spending time reading in to.

Mulch's line of reasoning being "even if I flip scum you should still treat tora as confirmed town" means absolutely jack shit. The moment Mulch flips scum, everything he's said of that nature is fully WIFOM and not worth trying to read deeply in to unless you know Mulch very very well. I don't understand why you put so much emphasis on that line, honestly. I've ignored it because it seems vacuous to me. It doesn't mitigate that Mulch could have been doing it for town cred.

I think you're misinterpreting my stance here slightly as thinking that Mulch most likely did it for towncred; my stance is simply that it's something completely within his ability to do as town and as scum, and that probabilistic arguments (i.e. "he's done it in X towngames and only Y scumgames") are inherently less reliable in team mafia because it's a natural time to break meta, and that therefore it's null.

-This:

But it's not really accurate to say that I'm scumreading anyone right now. I'm pretty reluctant these days to actually scumread anyone early d1 unless something sort of falls into place, which it does sometimes but not always. I mostly just accumulate townreads.

And I know he's not the only one guilty of it (see spiff), but it really felt like he wanted to fly under the radar for a while. And not just in the sense of activity. But more...just not stirring up controversy. Not getting his hands dirty. Not giving anyone a chance to say "man that was a really scummy push".

I feel like I've made moves this game that had the potential to get on many peoples' nerves (mulch, chara, cabd maybe, kagami maybe, that one post about Firebringer). Feel free to keep pushing this against me if I don't commit to more solid reads as the game prolongs, but keep in mind we are a week into the game. My reads aren't that great yet (I actually had a pretty solid amount of confidence in them like 3-4 days ago and then Mulch muddied everything up again), and I tend to have relatively weaker (as in, less accurate) reads on d1 anyway, I think. Though that might not be true anymore thinking about it. I can point to certain games where I had a lot of confidence in a scumread on d1, but I can also point to games where I didn't that are similar to this (shaziro mafia i think fits that). And a lot of those games I act similarly to this, not really ruffling feathers actively because there aren't a ton of feathers I strongly want to ruffle.

-His confidence in me being town just feels unnaturally strong. I mean, he did say it was because of my stance on teammates helping, so it's not like he hasn't given a reason but it seems like he's coasting on that as a reason and for me to be his "strongest townread", "unquestionably town", and "blatantly obvtown" over it just doesn't feel right. I feel weird having issues with town reads on me because it keeps coming up and I don't usually do that to this extent, but some of them just feel out of place and Implosion's fits that category just like Kagami's does. Cheet and maybe Spiff I think just have the right read for the wrong reasons. These two don't feel natural.

I'm happy to justify all the reasons why I have you as town at this point. It's not just the thing it was earlier. But it seems like mostly a waste of time since neither you nor me is under pressure right now.

[implosion]

Kagami (re)read:

I see absolutely no reason to townread their first few posts (their entrance toward Spiffeh). I don't understand why anyone has said they do. Not a hard entrance to make as scum.

They basically throw out a few random reads here and there until they give a pseudo readslist (a scum shortlist or possibly people-they-need-to-sort shortlist) in 980. Their reads sort of progress from here, but a lot of it doesn't really make strict sense. It's not like, damningly scummy or anything. They give a read from Katsuki that Patrick is 100% town which I think could be easily faked and is completely unjustified. The only real substantive posting that Kagami is doing around this time is arguing with Kmd over what looks to me like semantics of the Mulch mason claim and the argument that they've had around it. And I think this is what Toranga is referring to when they mention it looking like Kagami was genuinely trying to sort Mulch but I don't see what in here looks like genuine sorting; most if it is sort of a flat logical argumentation that I don't think really justifies a scumread on Mulch. Like 1231 sounds kind of like it's saying a lot but it really isn't. It's just saying the same thing i did, basically that Mulch has plenty of motivation to do the thing as scum, but that isn't a good justification for him being scum. Also mentioned team makeup but meeh.

Then we get to post 1236 which is I think one of the first things that pinged me when I saw it and I'm pretty sure I mentioned this before but the probabilistic argument is just such an incredibly easy argument to make as scum. And then 1243 supplements this justification. I think (read: checked, and i am correct) at this point Mulch had already mentioned the "I was planning to pick a normal no matter what" thing. And there are responses to that (i.e., you can just claim Mulch is lying about wanting to pick a normal no matter what). But Kagami I think ignored it? Which is a bit... bad? Because it completely changes the probabilistic argument from Mulch-is-scum-70%-of-the-time to either Mulch is lying about this thing (which Kagami would have to justify) or Mulch-is-scum-if-and-only-if-they-got-a-scum-PM-in-a-normal which is only 36%. And Kagami ignores that very, very crucial facet of the argument which to me indicates disingenuous sorting. 1243 in general just feels very lazy; it's about the easiest thing in the WORLD to do as scum in a game where Mulch is town to say "Mulch is scum, idk about anyone else they all seem fine to me."

breaking this here for now for length

[implosion]

Implosion:
- Regardless, it doesn't make sense to suggest that he'd be after town cred. Whether you believe he actually is or that his scum motivation would be town cred IF he is scum, neither line of reasoning fits. The "whether I flip town or scum" line is important because it shows exactly what his motivation was: getting us to treat Tora as confirmed town. It serves no purpose to his own game as scum. It doesn't net him town cred. It just says "treat Tora as confirmed town". That's it.

dude this is like.

a thing scum do to townies
it's called pocketing or buddying

the motivation exists
i might as well be calling you confirmed town right now with the strength of read I've given. Why aren't you townreading me?

[implosion]

Continuing on Kagami.

1274 is an interesting one. It's one of those posts that I feel like I should be able to read into but am not actually sure about. It kind of fits into a pattern of easy-things-to-talk-about-as-scum. But it also could indicate town because I'm not sure if that's a conversation Kagami fakes? And I'm not sure if it's a conversation they talk about if they are actually having it as scum with their team. But could be.

1280 is bleh. Specific lines in it:

- the mason thing that kmd finds so towny doesn't make sense from a town perspective; he was going to call you town anyway, there's no reason fakeclaim mason unless he was hoping to get reciprocation or some other sort of townread out of it.

This is not a justification for a scumread but Kagami is again pretending that it is; it's merely a justification not to townread Mulch off of the mason claim

- 0 breadth in general. Even his recent townreads post (after I called him out on it) are all easy
- Scumreads are bad and overly sparse

hypocrisy???? I mean it isn't a scumtell but. Like. Kagami has a single scumread at this point?????? And has spent most of their time talking about mulch, and what little "breadth" they've given has largely consisted of extremely offhanded remarks like "Katsuki said patrick's 100% town" which are trivial to fake.

- Blow up a few pages back makes no sense

Also not a justification for a scumread unless Kagami thinks Mulch was completely faking the blow up and it sounds like Kagami wants to say that but is refusing to say it so as to not draw more of Mulch/other peoples' ire. Idk how you can possibly justify the blowup as scummy unless you think he was literally completely faking it and I personally really doubt he was (not that it was town, it's null really, but like.)

1281:

I remain curious what exactly he expects from me, as he knows I'm not a super-interactive player. I continue to expect something and remain patiently waiting.

This is a really weird thing to say at this point? After Kagami has like already tried to engage with Cabd in this way and attempted to reach out to him directly and it makes me feel like Kagami was only doing that to appease Cabd and now is like well cabd isn't actually a threat in this game i don't need to appease him anymore i'll just say this thing.

[implosion]

alright i'm tired and really hungry and have to eat dinner now and won't be on more tonight hooray but in theory can continue isodiving tmrw but who knows i might just completely forget out of laziness and/or laziness

[implosion]

UFO there aren't any wolfy people this game

Spiffeh is pretty null-scum

Kagami is legitmately scummy

Everyone else is some degree of towny

I'm wrong somewhere

VOTE: mulch

dude I was hard pocketed by you, congratulations

but you're scum and kagami is almost always a mislynch here

hoooo boy am i excited to read 25 more pages of this game tomorrow

[implosion]

Implosion's Kagami case posts are hard to find something to disagree with on the surface but I agree with Patrick/Eddie that it really feels like something's wrong with them. The approach feels off to me? Something like.. he's trying too hard to find scum motivation in a way that feels more like "I want this person to look like scum" rather than "all of these points are genuinely standing out to me as reasoning for Kagami being scum".
If he's town he's probably going to find that commentary unfair/annoying though, so I'm eventually planning to pick apart the reasoning itself.

This is actually not annoying, because it gets at the fundamental problem that I am confirmation biased and feel like PoE is vaguely closing in and there are scum in the game and etc.

The annoying piece is that several people have commented on the post with the same thing of "well yeah the points seem sound on the surface but I think they might still come from scum-implosion" in one way or another. And all of these do nothing to tell me whether or not I'm right, and I'm really not sure if I am. There's an element of me reading each of Kagami's posts and trying to honestly assess it as whether it's more likely to come from town or scum, but there's also an element of me building up the best case for Kagami-scum that I can and seeing if other people agree with it or if certain points stand out or if the whole thing is rubbish.

It's also about seeing how Kagami reacts to it, which thus far is not at all except the indirect reaction of calling me scum-if-mulch-is-town.

It's similar to my post toward Chara earlier.

[implosion]

All *that* said, Toranga flipping on Mulch is really, really interesting and I am somewhat waiting to see where it goes because I think it's potentially meaningful if Toranga can give better explanations than "Mulch doesn't look gamesolvey enough" or whatever when he had specifically said he was townreading Mulch for looking gamesolvey earlier (i.e., what's changed?)

[implosion]

Dude. You want me to town read you and then you post something like this. That doesn't sound like a town mindset at all.

The earlier question was rhetorical because you said Mulch is town for calling Toranga conftown.

And yes, I do. What's wrong with acknowledging my own confirmation bias?

[implosion]

Bias? The way you phrased it made it sound intentional.

Like I said, it's a mix.

It's, to a degree, me basically saying all of my thoughts about the posts. But I'm also focusing on things that I find scummy, because I want to make the best case for Kagami being scum that I can, so that I can put it to the crucible of what other people think/what Kagami will say to refute it.

[implosion]

Fire I think is actually probably solid shot for scum? I don't really have a good reason for that. That thing earlier still pings me. His cheet push slightly pings me. Can't really justify that very well.

I want to say more things but I myself am sort of running low on steam.

VOTE: Kagami

@Toranga

: I sort of offhandedly mentioned this earlier or maybe explicitly asked idr, but what things did you see from mulch earlier that made you strongly townread him? What early things did you see as him genuinely gamesolving, that you now on further reflection no longer thing are good examples of genuine gamesolving? Or is it more a matter of his ISO not holding up as time passed?

[implosion]

Another thing incidentally is that I went back at some point like yesterdayish and skimmed a bit through my ISO in girls pt 1, and I misremembered and it actually took me a while there to get a good townread on Ginngie I think. Although iirc it was largely based on neighborhood posting. But the fact that it took me a bit there makes me feel a bit better about ginngie here.

Aristophanes is as other people are saying still off the table permanently today but on the table tomorrow early because yeah he needs to like do the things that he does when he's town at some point or die.

A significant part of me just wants a damn flip.

[implosion]

So you/your team chose you for this mini normal over the other after you saw what your roles in both normals were?

Who cares?

I dont see why you are on this so much and I don't think it looks good on you.

I will be interested in reading your follow up to this.

I mean.

If you literally look at Mulch's reply to this post on the same page, he says he was planning to take the scum PM if his team got one between the two normals, which is basically what I was trying to get out of this, i.e. a statement from him on what the baseline probability of him being scum is (which happens to be 36% if he is telling the truth about everything here).

It's not something I think is good to emphasize but it's good to know the baseline probability according to him. I also thought he was implying he'd decided entirely which game to pick between the two normals before seeing roles which seemed nonsensical.

I'm not really sure what your issue is with this, Ari.

[implosion]

Implosion have we played games before ?
I honestly cannot remember but I do know u modded a game with me in it

Pretty sure I've played with you-town and you-scum, though i think the latter not in a long time. It was chamber's mini normal. We were both town in girls pt 1.

I don’t see Kagami and Mulch as not TvS

Why can't they both be town?

I sort of agree that this whole thing is sort of... scurrilous. Basically, the argument I see for this (other people might have other arguments I've missed) is just that they're two of the scummier individual people, and that they aren't likely scum together. This is basically the easiest way in the world to set up two mislynches in a row as scum while only making it look like you were involved in one, if it is the event that they are both town. But that said, it can also be genuine as town to think that those two are individually scummy but just not likely scum together.

I have mixed feelings about the way people have been talking about Mulch v Kagami in isolation from the rest of the game.

[implosion]

This is basically the easiest way in the world to set up two mislynches in a row as scum while only making it look like you were involved in one, if it is the event that they are both town. But that said, it can also be genuine as town to think that those two are individually scummy but just not likely scum together.

What....

If you think that why r u voting Kagami?

2110 2117

The fact that people are doing something that is potentially-but-not-necessarily sketchy in the event that both Kagami and Mulch are town... does not make Kagami and Mulch both town.

[implosion]

yes i am throwing shade at people by calling out their behavior as possibly-scum-motivated and possibly-town-motivated?

[implosion]

this is my perplexed face.

[implosion]

Yeah, I saw the response and I still think it was wholly unnecessary. You were fishing for this answer in order to make this 33% chance of scum viable!

What did you think of his play? Thats what actually matters!

i have a feeling you'll like my kagami case

[implosion]

Yeah, I saw the response and I still think it was wholly unnecessary. You were fishing for this answer in order to make this 33% chance of scum viable!

What did you think of his play? Thats what actually matters!

i have a feeling you'll like my kagami case

There was also an element where at one point I did literally think he was lying about how he chose which game to play in.

[implosion]

Yeah, I saw the response and I still think it was wholly unnecessary. You were fishing for this answer in order to make this 33% chance of scum viable!

What did you think of his play? Thats what actually matters!

i have a feeling you'll like my kagami case

There was also an element where at one point I did literally think he was lying about how he chose which game to play in.

Oh good, something to look forward to in my reading! =D

for clarity that second comment was regarding mulch possibly lying, not kagami

[implosion]

maybe it's because you've spent about 1 second per post so far

[implosion]

skimming is fine

skimming to the point that you are literally spending on average 1-2 seconds per post and then loudly questioning why you only have 1 read after 35 pages and saying you'll have to check in with your team before answering a question on why a read that he gave is the way it is is ????

[implosion]

The whole "i'm going to live up to my team's name and spam the thread" thing also feels kind of... forced.

[implosion]

about?

[implosion]

Thoughts on Aristophanes still dodging and not voting?

Basically he has until d2 to do shit, and then i and probably a large number of people will vote park him and he will either eventually do shit or in all likelihood flip scum.

In essence, not worth thinking too much about.

[implosion]

Yeah, pretty much. If he fn's someone, he's obviously town. If he doesn't, then think about it then. Might be worth giving him a second chance in case scum have a 1-shot or odd-night roleblocker and/or in case they have a stronger roleblocker to force the roleblocker to keep on him. If it's the day before lylo and he is alive and hasn't fn'd anyone, lynch him no questions asked pretty much barring weird circumstances.

[implosion]

Unvote

[implosion]

Chara feels a bit less generically sketchy as time goes on.

I still hate like all of Kagami's posts.

But I think I prefer an assemble lynch right now.

Yea, I'm fine with this day sliding to it's end now.
Fine with an assemble-lynch, fine with a Kagami-lynch.
I feel like I might actually need a flip before I can produce anything reasonable by myself anymore..

Do you have any preference between the two at this point?

[implosion]

assemblerotws, town friendly neighbor, has been lynched on day one

[implosion]

assemblerotws, mafia jailkeeper, has been lynched on day one

[implosion]

VOTE: Aristophanes

[implosion]

Mulch/Aris/Cabd?

I can just picture the private topic if this is the scumteam though, lol.

oh dear god.

my theory is ari+fb though.

[implosion]

If I'm correct, do I get a fruit basket?

dang that fruit vendor softclaim though

In seriousness though, una.

since I couldn't have moved at night,

Why did you feel the need to say this?

[implosion]

yeah tbh, i can theoretically see some of the arguments cabd is making.

The one part i just flatly don't believe is that he thinks he would have drawn the n1 kill with a soft of friendly neighbor, having lurked through d1 in a game with like seven people who are considered obvtown and who could theoretically be power roles that actually do anything against the mafia.
The other one part is that I have difficulty believing that he genuinely thinks he wasn't going to be lynched today after claiming bulletproof.
The other other one part that I can't really accept is that he's convinced that he did draw the nightkill last night, as opposed to some other role stopping it.
The other other other one part that I find just a bit sketchy is that he said today that his claim would "sort itself out" which essentially if he's telling the truth about being a bulletproof was just for the sake of literally wasting a few hours of everyone's time.

[implosion]

Who my friendly neighbor is, well, that's about to be Self evident.

was referring to this which i guess was a cheeky crumb but.

[implosion]

una like 8 people have told you to just claim.

why are you going to sleep instead?

[implosion]

the Cabd defense is really just.. blatant and unorthodox in a way that's mostly ineffective and just draws attention to himself, so if Cabd flips scum [which I think is honestly pretty much a certainty at this point] then I think KMD doesn't really fit for a partner?

IMO this is also pretty much true of his mulch defense. His insistence on there being no way scum-mulch calls Toranga conftown, and continuing to insist it when multiple people were arguing against it, is a bit odd from scum. Unorthodox is a good word.

I don't really see the upgrading Ari from those posts but I like chara's reasoning for it.

I still think Firebringer should be on the table.

[implosion]

Una wouldn't surprise me as scum by any means but I don't particularly think he is.

Reck pointed out to me that it seems pretty plausible that Ari had a slow start this game because of RL stuff and a generally fast pace to the game.

So what's your current complete opinion on him, then? Do you think his recent posting is good enough to toss him in the town pile? Because I feel like he still needs to show commitment to solving the game at some point. Even if he had a slow start that's no excuse for not having read up on the game during night phase, and not at least trying to follow along with the game live if not doing a full reread.

Basically if he keeps posting things like 2988 that have Actual Real Opinions and/or Analysis in them then I'm good with continuing to ignore

those opinions

him. But I'm not ready to write him off at all yet.

[implosion]

He's more or less committing to engaging with the current gamestate instead of trying to catch up and has started giving opinions on things as they're happening.

Yeah, I'm good with this if it keeps happening, basically just that one post isn't enough for me to square him away. Honestly I'm less familiar with Ari's play than I think I've made it sound like I am, I think I have one completed game with him, and that post on its own isn't strongly town I think.

I thought you were completely townbinning him and wanted to clarify if you were, because it seems inappropriate to me to do so.

Him not catching up overnight was something sleepykrew mentioned being annoyed at.

[implosion]

hey ginngie actually fuck you :/.

i wanted to play mafia, not glance at my computer screen two hours into a day to find out that this bullshit happened.

[implosion]

yes it's confirmed 12-3. and it's pretty ridiculous that we haven't lost any power roles. we could consider massclaiming here.

[implosion]

but probably wait like one more day.

[implosion]

and yeah... cabd went back on a friendly neighbor claim. Which was literally the only reason he hadn't already eaten rope. It didn't really matter if he was scum at that point, he was going to be lynched the next day.

[implosion]

so.

VOTE: Firebringer

[implosion]

do we just lynch ginngie here though?

like we probably should for due diligence but i don't think she is scum but i don't think we can possibly leave her alive at lylo?

i'm not sure if the part of me that's saying that actually thinks she's likely scum, or just dreads a universe where scum-ginngie wins this game.

[implosion]

yeah no i'm not fucking off

i didn't get to play last game day ^_^

[implosion]

and you don't get to fake guilties as town ^_^

[implosion]

yep, firebringer, the easy lynch

[implosion]

honestly?

i'm mostly just pissed off at you.

and i don't get pissed off very easily.

so.

[implosion]

Someone who's very confident that fire is town (chara? idr who else) should give me the strongest couple reasons to think he is town in their opinion.

I'll probably case him this game day. But I do think he's the third scum atm. I don't think anything he's done is outside his scum range, which is fairly wide afaik. Everyone else in the game gives me a degree of sort of dread when I consider the world in which they're scum, with the exception of spiffeh just because I know his scumgame is also potentially very deep and he could be in it. There are other people alive whose scumgames I'm not sure of in terms of how well they could have managed this game (una, and even keely to a degree since I don't think I've seen his scumgame but god damn i will be surprised if this is it) and other people whose not-that-good-at-scum ness i'm sort of taking their/others' words for (patrick, chara, aristophanes since my direct meta with him is v limited).

But yeah.

[implosion]

Just reexamine thongs and let me know please

[implosion]

I don't think anything he's done is outside his scum range, which is fairly wide afaik.

Can you reference what you're basing this on? Also whenabouts were you planning on casing him in terms of a timeline?

I'm actually not sure what I'm basing it on given that it's actually been a really long time since i've seen him as scum now that i think about it. But at the very least, we know based on public knowledge that firebringer chose a scum game before he and RC swapped. I'm not going to speculate out loud deeply on that for obvious reasons. Beyond that I am pretty sure I have some memory of thinking firebringer is generally fairly good at scum. I don't remember where it comes from.

It should be this weekend, most likely tomorrow.

[implosion]

I'm pretty skeptical of trying to read deeply in to most reactions yesterday just since scum would have known it was faked and could have seen it as an opportunity to fake a good reaction. Though there were a couple that pinged me as town, e.g. una iirc.

(not really directly related to that but)

I feel a bit better on Ari after his flip on me. I

think

scum-ari doesn't fake that. I also sort of think scum-ari would have stopped beating the dead horse of "there's no way in hell i'd pick scum".

[implosion]

Hey implosion.
Hey.
Hey.
Why were you not down to lynch Cabd BEFORE the softclaim?
Because you're saying you didn't want to lynch him after the softclaim but you said "get off the wagons please?" BEFORE the softclaim?
Do explain.
Because.
I want you on the fucking chopping block so hard for this.

Stopping ISOdive here because this last thought is so hard not to share right now lol.

Just to get to this first.

You're forgetting that cabd softclaimed twice; my asking for a disbanding of the wagon was in response to the *first* softclaim.
As well as his follow-up softclaim, which you'll note is on the same page as me asking to disband the wagons.
You'll note as well that I mentioned explicitly that I was unsure what to think of him because of the first softclaim.

[implosion]

Re: me not voting cabd early. If I recall correctly, I was mostly concerned about overpressuring him. I figured with Mulch's bullshit toward him, if he was town, he was likely going to have a difficult time getting a foothold on the game. This is part of why I reached out to him. I think I was planning on voting contingent on his responses, but I actually liked the justifications for his reads that he gave at the time. See 799. I could see myself doing something similar toward Cabd as scum but I won't get into a big self-meta argument as to why this isn't exactly what it would be unless requested.

How is this your first vote.
o.o

I assumed you had something significant. It was mostly spur of the moment sheeping you because I didn't have my vote down.

This is so so so so much weaker than both of your leads on Cabd/Mulch.

Yep.

It was basically me attempting to sort the slot.

I didn't want to vote Cabd for reasons already stated; I didn't want to vote Mulch because sorting him was sort of an antipriority for me in a sense. Like when I said that I didn't buy anyone who claimed to have a strong read on him. I had no idea how to read him. I hadn't seen his scumgame before, either. I didn't really think that pressure would be very helpful in reading him either. I did say I was willing to vote him for lolgamemetapolicylynchlol but that was mostly facetious.

I feel a little irked that implo drops Mulch from his readlist post 906
and I also dislike that Cabd is just "there is not enough data".
You've given reasons to scumread Cabd already.
It's really weird that you would stop scumreading him, especially when his posting never really got town.

He had already softclaimed at this point, and in fact I had already caught the softclaim (which I know because I made a note of it on the 22nd).
This was me trying to back away from that read because I thought he was a softclaiming power role and I didn't really know what to do about the slot.

How does this reconcile with your scumread on Mulch at the time?
I don't understand why you would vote Mulch when Kagami is the one who your pressure would have been usefully affecting?

I think I actually was just getting sick of his shit tbh.

[implosion]

Can you talk at me about why you've been so okay with me pitching you as scum for like the last two days?

honestly

there was a significant part of me that was kind of glad about it?

I often find pressure on me to be the best motivator for me. I also sort of expected to be pressured by scum at some point, but I don't think you're scum here. The only reason I haven't said anything about you mentioning the read is because you said you were going to case me and so I was waiting for that.

[implosion]

I thought I was going to be cases implosion

yeah yeah i'm a lazy piece of shit i'll get to it

[implosion]

Mulch

, representing Spam Squad

Toranaga

, representing Sauciety

UnaBombaH

, representing Chillplay Bombahskiies

Chara

, representing Backhanded Remarks

Ginngie

, representing Queue Agents

Kmd4390

, representing Serious Business

Firebringer

, representing Team Cuddly (swapped with RadiantCowbells pregame)

Cheetory6

, representing Dandy Irate Hoes (representing MATI energy?)

implosio

n, representing Make Papa Proud

Aristophanes

, representing Relaxed Nature

Patrick

, representing God Save The Black Goo

Kagami,

representing KAGAMI WHYYYYYYYYYYY

Spiffeh

, representing Young and Beautiful

Cabd

, representing DEFCON

Transcend

, representing eddie cane

Mulch doesn't double-bus here.

Does he?

[implosion]

(granted that only really means anything about spiffeh but.)

[implosion]

honestly isoing firebringer is a nightmare.

I feel like his iso is so vapid in terms of content that is capable of being read into.

[implosion]

yeah that isn't a case.

that's an excuse.

i open your iso and stare at it for like 2 minutes and i feel like i've gotten absolutely nowhere.

[implosion]

fuck.

can we just massclaim?

[implosion]

i still think kmd is vaguely locktown.

[implosion]

Spoiler: Wherein implosion further procrastinates casing fire by instead towncasing kmd and also i'm really lazy so i'm not going to cut any of the wallposts that i'm quoting down to size, unspoiler at your own risk you have been warned hear ye hear ye.

Guys I'm confused. Mathdino disagrees with like all of my reads and I expected us to be on the same page coming in to this. He says my issues with unabomb can be chalked up to language issues with English (which I actually didn't know) and thinks mulch is scum. I really wanted to vote unabomb but I really don't know. Maybe mulch is ok on a commination of policy and hoping that people who have played with him know him better than I do.

Also I just read page 15 and have nothing new to add.

Here's where it starts for me. The phrasing of "I really wanted to vote unabomb but I really don't know" feels super genuine, and not the kind of way I think scum faking hydra dissonance says it here. The line about him having issues with unabomb that math says can be chalked up to language issues is also probably extremely difficult to fake. To have that line of reasoning occur, you need to actually have that language misunderstanding,

and

have that misunderstanding influence a read, and then have kmd talk to math about it. The only way to fake it is basically if kmd was explaining reasoning to his teammates for all of his fake reads, which is possible but I think moderately less likely than the town explanation.

The stance on Mulch is also not a scum stance IMO and this is a pattern that will continue; saying he might be willing to lynch mulch based on the reads of other people who know him better is just asking for an eventual Mulch lynch if they're buddies. And he later follows through with this when Toranga flips his read on Mulch, as we'll see.

Mulch, it's your Transcend push that Mathdino doesn't like. He says Transcend's test on you was something he obviously believes. And then there's some stuff about how it seems like something momo would do which I don't really get because I've never played with momo. Also, if he was trying to get you to react badly, why would he back off and vote tor?

This is something he has explicitly stated he just does sometimes.

I have?

Uhh...

.... as a town strategy?

So why are you trying to pin it on me as if it's not towny?


Regardless of the fact that I did it this game because I was pretty sure Toranaga took town so it's not exactly random

but still

Uhhhhh. Yeah. If anything, Mulch looks townier from this.

I mean.

The benefit of doing it as scum is pretty damn apparent from the argument that you make in that thread. You "confirm yourself as town."

I personally think it's meaningless in terms of reading into your alignment, whereas it could potentially be very useful for reading into the alignment of someone without the same meta of having done it before.

When he did it, it said more about tora than about himself though. That's what made me town read Mulch as a result. Why go through that much effort to make someone else obvtown if he was scum?

This argument. I really do not think Kmd makes this argument and continues hammering it over and over and over as scum with Mulch. But the reason why I think this will become apparent more with the frequency with which he reasserts it.

Implosion feels pretty town rn

Really? Why?

748 and 792 are towny

Can you be more specific? Especially on the second one because that's likely something his team discussed pre-game. I'm willing to be at least half of the teams talked about who each team would give scum roles to.

This offhandedly doesn't feel like a scum->scum interaction to me.

So you meant "I don't think scum-mulch claims masons with town-tora?"

I don't think Mulch as scum makes such a big show of how town Tora is.

Kmd, the exit is scum-indicative if anything, since town-mulch is reasonably likely to come to a different conclusion from the "reaction test."

The exit means nothing. Like I said, the claim was never sticking unless they were actually masons or scum together and in either of those cases they don't claim in RVS. The exit was inevitable.

If you believe the entry makes him town, then thats one thing, but that's not at all what you said.

Nope. It meant nothing to me when he first claimed. My instinct was just to wait and see what Tora says.

Basically, free towncred; I can easily see scum-mulch doing this to town-Toranga if he assumes that toranga is going to be townread either way, especially since mulch may have thought of it during pregame/may have been thinking about it before then when he saw he was getting scum role PM. Basically I just don't think there's any negative utility to doing it as scum if he was under the assumption that toranga was going to be obvtown, and there is simple positive utility in it giving him potential towncred/him later being able to say "look at me, i broke my scum meta!"

I sort of agree that it's somewhat unlikely to come from scum mulch who thinks he might have been able to get away with a mislynch on toranga.

I dunno. The way he went into it being regardless of how he flips and don't worry about his own alignment because Tora is confirmed town regardless doesn't make me think he was after any town cred. It seems like if he'd been lynched he'd go "oh well at least I confirmed Tora as town".

I feel alot better about implosion and Unabomba. I'm unsure if I'm just seeing ghosts on KMD because he's posted alot of stuff relevant to the game and talked about a good number of people, but I get an empty feeling from the apparent internal turmoil in his team about reads in this game, whereas I feel like I often townread that kind of thing. No clue on Cabd, and Kagami seems entirely unimpressive so far. Probably worth a read of 4:8 Nightless, but that'll have to be for another day. I'd like to hear from Aris, but comments from Cheet/implosion suggest to me that slot is not worth focussing on now.

I mean I wouldn't call it turmoil. Mathdino and I actually sync pretty well together from the little bit of recent experience I have with him. It's just we got opposite impressions on this game when we read it. He has more experience with unabomb than I do so maybe I need to default to him on that read. I think we still disagree on Transcend but we haven't talked much about him. We just disagreed on some reads. It's bound to happen from time to time. I'd be pretty shocked if anyone could honestly tell me that across five games their teams agree on every read. The difference is probably that Mathdino is more vocal and assertive than most people. Which is fine. It just came off wrong I think.

Here we see him continue to argue about Mulch being town because of the toranga masons thing. The reason why I think this is town is that he's drawing so much flak for it, even if that flak isn't really directly throwing shade on kmd's alignment. I think at some point in this back and forth, scum-kmd would accept that this is not an argument for town-mulch that the town is buying, and just give up trying to argue the point. But he keeps at it. He makes this a sort of central part of the way he's approaching coming up with reads in the game. And I don't think he'd feel like he could get away with that as scum. I think as scum, he backs off from this point eventually, while still keeping Mulch as town or nulltown so that he doesn't have to flow toward a wagon if one crops up.

Your OMGUS is showing with your comments at both cheer and myself and then your vote.

I would never think "you suck" about players who are more experienced and sound players than I might ever be.

My comments towards you and "cheer" (cheetory?) are based solely on your posts/actions in the game.
I do not think you suck, I think your actions might have scummy motivations.

Yeah that was cheet. Auto correct sucks. But yeah Mathdino says OMGUS is something town-you does and it seems like your reads are based entirely on that despite what you say. I'll reluctantly:

Unvote, Vote Transcend

He wants me to vote mulch but that would be purely policy for me and I don't at all love that idea.

From Mathdino, paraphrased:
Una
- Drop your Aris scum read. He would never pick a scum role. However, you pushing this does show that you are town.
-team mafia is town sided. Mulch's play takes away from that because people not in the game won't bother to keep up. Saying town loses if we mislynch mulch is BS. What are your thoughts on mulch vs transcend?
- you're probably right about scum hiding in the chaos. Lynch either a spammer or a lurker.
-youre being scum read for being awkward and uncharismatic and not seeming to care who the Lynch is.
-this slot is backed by our reads and meta knowledge and you'll be able to tell if it's a scum slot by our accuracy.

"He wants me to vote mulch but that would be purely policy for me and I don't at all love that idea."
Does he really say that line as scum with mulch?
I really think the answer is no. Can't explain why in depth but. Judge for yourself.

Tora, why is Mulch scum? This is important. There's a chance I trust you and switch wagons.

Tora, why is Mulch scum? This is important. There's a chance I trust you and switch wagons.

Don't worry he'll switch eventually or else lolhim and I get to rub it in his face forever

Then why'd you call it a death sentence for you?

Because he knows how to read me so if he continues to say I'm scum I'm not even going to fight it

Ok.

Unvote, Vote Mulch

I skimmed his ISO and the content is lacking. I disliked transcend's push on him to the point of hard scumreading transcend, but it's not strong enough to give mulch a pass. he didn't scumhunt. I ask for two ISOs, he gives me two likely town ISOs. your ISO doesn't need anyone reviewing it. all of those mathdino stances are unlikely to come from scum, period. he hasn't delivered. town mulch is better than this. I'm holding him to this standard and think his lynch is ok this gameday.

I think una and implosion should be looked at.

I think I like this guy.

Well that was short lived.

Unvote, Vote Kagami

I still don't like mulch's answer to me for the record.

And here we see him follow through with his promise to trust people who can read Mulch better than he can. This shows it wasn't an empty promise, even if he immediately unvoted Mulch. And even then I think he might be afraid that the immediate vote-unvote of a scumbuddy would draw ire toward the slot in the event of his own flip.

tl;dr
the way he talks about the way he's been talking with mathdino is genuine, and his interactions toward Mulch don't look scum->scum.

[implosion]

Una there's no guarantee that we have "our investigative". There could be multiple investigative roles, or none at all.

Regardless of any of that my feelings on massclaim right now is that it's hard to tell if it's a good thing or a bad thing, but i personally just want more info to work with. And @Chara, I think you at least somewhat underestimate what setup speculation is capable of. It's very difficult to do well here, especially since there's a scum role which only had a partial flip, but it is still useful.

[implosion]

Firebringer is still my best guess for scum atm. But I really don't feel great about it.

What are the reasons we're writing off Spiffeh? He's done townish things but he's also just constantly substituted telling us that he's town and selfmetaing for actual content.

[implosion]

Like, he felt annoyed when everyone called his performance in biochem a lurkerscum win.

The fact that it has happened before doesn't exactly make me feel better about it.

Do you think that annoyance would be sufficient motivation for him to be more active in this game? I feel like efforting as scum isn't as simple as not wanting to have a win be called a lurker win.

[implosion]

I'm also pleading that we don't force Ari to claim, but instead all ask for our investigative to step forward, and claim their role, but no results yet.

you're going to need an amazing reason for asking investigatives to tell the last scum what kind of results they could have before the scum is forced to claim.

yeah the one thing i'm really confident with atm about una is that his reason for wanting claims to go like this, whatever that reason may be, isn't as good as he thinks it is.

Although I doubt he's doing this as scum. But hey i said the same thing abut cabd so :largeshrugemoji:

[implosion]

you're going to need an amazing reason for asking investigatives to tell the last scum what kind of results they could have before the scum is forced to claim.

like.. I just said that "no results".

Yeah that's not what Chara is saying.

It's saying that for instance if someone says "hey, i'm a rolecop" then even if they don't claim their results, suddenly it informs the last scum if they need to be truthful about their role or if they can safely fakeclaim.

Etc.

(correct me if I'm wrong, Chara)

[implosion]

i'm fine w/ that.

VT.

[implosion]

{cheet, chara}
{kmd, una}
{patrick?}
{aristophanes}
{spiffeh, ginngie, firebringer}

discuss

[implosion]

those aren't scumreads.

[implosion]

also there should be some ???'s next to ginngie as well.

[implosion]

also when i say discuss i actually do mean discuss. i literally wrote that list in about 15 seconds and i'm not sure if it's actually where i'm at right now, it's just what me trying to figure out where i stand very quickly is.

I don't feel good about calling anyone in the game scum basically and the three people at the bottom feel the least wrong, and I absolutely hate having to go with something that feels the least wrong.

[implosion]

lol.

[implosion]

Literally only once, you’d be smart to listen to the people that actually play with me

What is the exhaustive list of people, preferably in this game but allowably also in team mafia as a whole, who fall under this category?

[implosion]

Literally only once, you’d be smart to listen to the people that actually play with me

What is the exhaustive list of people, preferably in this game but allowably also in team mafia as a whole, who fall under this category?

[implosion]

so we should literally sheep fire's opinion on you and discount everyone else's?
or is there any amount of nuance whatsoever?

[implosion]

VOTE: Spiffeh

[implosion]

disagreement

[implosion]

just like glancing at his last ~20ish posts they're so... empty.

He hasn't done any scumhunting in ages, he doesn't want to do any scumhunting, he's latching onto the easiest damn points in the world to latch onto, his only defenses of himself are LAMIST and saying that he'd be playing better/less lurkily here if he were scum... and there is a very, very strong trend in this game where scum have tended to say "but i can't be scum, there's no way in hell i would have done Z."

Cabd said there was no way he'd have not replaced out upon seeing he was scum with Mulch.

Mulch constantly berated me for scumreading/pressuring him while providing no actual substantive reasons to townread him. He constantly selfmeta'd.

I just can't buy spiffeh arguing that he's town in the way that he has been right now.

[implosion]

Gamma was following along closely enough to notice me mentioning him, but he has no reads/input on the game itself.

Yeah this is probably the biggest indicator of scum in this game

Teammates following along but not having any input are probably not teammates of a town player

There's literally no point in following along if you're not going to give any reads and discuss things with the player actually in the game

(I have to check the actual context of this but as it is now it's p. damning)

this post just feels like scum saying "hey here's a thing i can latch on to" and latching on to it.

It just feels so noncommittal and unoriginal and icky. It's the kind of post that scum loves to make, because they get to explain reasoning in a way that makes it look like they're actually having a line of original thought when they're really just echoing what someone else is saying.

[implosion]

Whenever I read a post you make against him I think he's scum <.<

i also sympathize really strongly with this sentiment. Which makes me feel a little bit better about Patrick, who I'm a little bit afraid that I'm just townreading because i'm accidentally sheeping popular opinion?

But like. I understand keely's posts and sort of agree with them but simultaneously reject them and feel like Ari just can't be scum here.

[implosion]

Ok I've completed my reread

Time for the moment you've all been waiting for

Town: {Cheetory6, Ginngie, Kmd4390}
Townlean: {implosion, Firebringer, Aristophanes, Chara}
Null: {Mulch, Patrick, Eddie Cane, Cabd}
Scumlean: {Kagami}
Scum: {Toranaga, UnaBombaH}

ew.

[implosion]

ew because that makes so much sense for scum-spiffeh to do, on a quick glancing thought. I mean, generally putting scumbuddies in a nullpile is really easy/convenient to do because it lets you leave potential avenues open to go either direction, and doesn't force you to fake reasoning for a scumbuddy being town which in some cases can be easy to pick apart or incriminating later. Ew because null on cabd just feels maybe off:

Cabd would be a scum lean without the friendly neighbor claim because he's done nothing worthy of being town read beyond that.

I honestly personally feel like that should be a townread on Cabd. I think that an explicit (well, i guess this wasn't explicit, but it was REALLY DAMN OBVIOUSLY there) friendly neighbor claim (even softclaim) should lead to him being in the town pile. Even if you have a scumread on him otherwise. I think other people might have done this too but it felt a little icky then too. It just looks like scum who wants to hedge because they know the claim is fake.

[implosion]

If scum-spiffeh puts Mulch in a town or scum pile, it's really inconvenient, because suddenly if he calls Mulch town he has to draw ire from all the people scumreading him and give justifications for calling Mulch town, and if he calls Mulch scum he has to bus in what looks like might otherwise be a day one Kagami mislynch.

Instead he does this, and sort of gives very vague justification for throwing Mulch+eddie as null that feels very blah.

[implosion]

@Aristophanes:

do you specifically not enjoy scum/enjoy town significantly more than scum, or do you just consider yourself bad at scum?

[implosion]

implosion pretty much all of the stuff you're suddenly pulling out looks like you decided to scum read me and are combing through my posts in order to find some stuff to justify it

not entirely inaccurate

What do you think about my interactions with Mulch later in the day?

haven't read in detail

[implosion]

Alright, I read through those posts.

What am I supposed to be townreading you off of in them, other than the brute fact that you voted for Mulch? Because nothing there looks especially strongly townish other than just the brute fact that you voted for Mulch. I can see actually a lot of reasons for you to vote Mulch there as scum:

Day 1, Votecount 62

---

4 Kagami (Firebringer, Ginngie, Chara, Mulch)
3 Mulch (Kagami, Eddie Cane, Kmd4390)
2 Spiffeh (Patrick, Toranaga)
1 Chara (implosion)
1 UnaBombaH (Spiffeh)

4 Unvote (Aristophanes, Cabd, Cheetory6, UnaBombaH)

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
The deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 00:00:00), on Sunday, February 4 at 11:59 pm EST.

---

This is the VC right before you vote Mulch.

Mulch is obviously going to vote Kagami if it comes down to it (he had voted you instead at the time you voted i think), my most recent posts were me casing Kagami, and Kmd switches to the Kagami wagon before you vote Mulch.
From here, after you vote the VC looks like:

Day 1, Votecount 63

---

Once I ran to you
Now I'm done with you
This blatant scum I'm seeing
I need you dead for town's well-being
Eat this rope and quit your scheming, oh
Blatant scum
Oh...blatant scum

-[

Tainted Love,

Soft Cell

]

4 Kagami (Firebringer, Ginngie, Chara, Kmd4390)
4 Mulch (Kagami, Eddie Cane, Toranaga, Spiffeh)
2 Spiffeh (Patrick, Mulch)
1 Chara (implosion)

4 Unvote (Aristophanes, Cabd, Cheetory6, UnaBombaH)

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
The deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 00:00:00), on Sunday, February 4 at 11:59 pm EST.

---

and from here, I'm probably voting Kagami, Mulch is probably voting Kagami, and Cabd is probably voting Kagami (he had been townreading mulch and could easily justify it) fypov if you're scum. That leaves patrick/una/ari/keely as likely undecided voters (not going to indepth research what they said about the squabble right now), and only one of them needed to vote Kagami to get a lynch.

In other words isn't this the perfect time for you to vote Mulch to distance from him? It really looked at that point like Kagami was going to be the lynch even with you voting Mulch, until Mulch was force-replaced and assemble started acting ridiculously shady.

[implosion]

@Aristophanes:

do you specifically not enjoy scum/enjoy town significantly more than scum, or do you just consider yourself bad at scum?

I actually always get really excited when I get a scum PM!

Then the game starts...

okay well i have to say of all the responses you could possibly have given this is probably the single most indicative of scum.

[implosion]

would you elaborate, imp?
what's he's described is exactly how i used to feel about scum. an honest response is an honest response.

Yeah, and when you mentioned the same thing earlier I mentioned I'm pretty sure I mentioned similar sentiment :p. I have you as town now because you actually started towntelling constantly today, in spite of you saying that you enjoy scum despite being bad at it.

Basically if he enjoys scum, even if he's not good at it, he's more likely to take a scum role PM. It makes it more likely that he took a scum PM as a challenge to himself/because he thought it would be fun to be scum in team mafia, as opposed to if he didn't enjoy scum then the point that he has no motivation to take a scum PM is stronger. The fact that he generally doesn't enjoy it as the game goes on is less relevant.

[implosion]

Semantics. Replace "enjoys scum" with "is excited upon getting scum role PMs."

If he's excited when he gets a scum PM, it's evidence against the claim that he would never take a scum PM.

Although I am curious on his response to this, since he has said he would never have taken a scum PM.

[implosion]

any response to 4060/4062?

[implosion]

meh.

[implosion]

Yeah, it isn't an argument for Ari scum; I'm just putting I think more stock than most people are in him not picking a scum role PM, and it's the primary reason I'm townreading him, and it weakens that.

There are some other weakish reasons but I'll withhold further direct scrutiny of him for 24h since he said he'd do shit by then or he's scum.

[implosion]

(other weakish reasons i'm townreading him, that is)

[implosion]

VOTE: Aristophanes

[implosion]

lol.

[implosion]

I don't wanna.

neither do i but he literally said he's obvscum.

Cheet, I had no laptop access (well, I did but apparently I can't access Mac's wifi anymore) so I continued with surface level posting. I have now developed a huge headache and thus am tabling this for tomorrow evening. I know, excuses and no follow up are my scumgame markers to a T, but gimme a day before you string me up for it.

Of I never follow through I am obvscum. When I do follow through you'll see I'm just not all here.

and i still kinda think he's town

but it feels like he's not gonna deliver until he's dead, or at least very close

[implosion]

if ari actually never delivers content, then i do think he's scum.

It's sort of like the halting problem. It's possible to be confident that he's town if he is town, because he'll eventually do something to make himself clearly town. If he's scum, the proverbial turing machine will never halt, because to halt it would have to become obvious town.

So I'm trying to speed up that process.

(and no, i'm not especially worried about ari knowing my vote is only pressure, because he has a lot of votes and actually now that i look at it ginngie isn't on his wagon and he's at l-2)

Unvote

but seriously ari. you need to give reads and justifications and do shit. Like, now. I really don't think you're scum. I feel like I have no choice but to think that you are more as time goes on. But I really don't think you are.

[implosion]

@Chara at one point you realized that you were meta-ing Mulch all wrong and said you'd have to reevaluate that read because of it.

You haven't really mentioned him since, so what is your read there now?

ie:
this is a weird thing to do if your goal is to try to get Kagami lynched while pushing Mulch.

It is.

Idk. I feel like I can come up with all manner of justifications for most things here. This is a really weird game to think about how the third scum would have been approaching it. They'd have a scum chat with Mulch and Cabd, and they'd know out of the gate, if scum is anyone currently alive other than Aristophanes, that they were likely going to have to be the scum who goes deep, and they likely would have known this either immediately on seeing mulch and cabd not getting along, or possibly on cabd's soft and Mulch drawing pressure in mid-d1.

How should third scum act there?

It makes sense for them to distance or even full-on bus. It makes sense to just try to do things that make you not look like scumbuddies with cabd or mulch, if you think that neither of them is going to live for very long. It sort of depends how optimistic the third scum was. If they were optimistic they might have tried to defend or chainsaw but if they were pessimistic and thought that eg mulch's lynch was inevitable then they might have just hard pushed it.

I think the kind of thing Kmd did is pretty clearly not the way you approach it, i.e. you don't want to draw ire with your defense and his defense of mulch was pretty loud and controversial. But maybe spiffeh's actions can make sense?

This is not me trying to convince you, really, it's sort of just I really don't think ari will flip scum.

[implosion]

bleh bleh bleh.

I feel pretty neutral about kmd's math's thoughts.

I feel pretty bleh about like everything in sight here.

[implosion]

VOTE: spiff

[implosion]

A part of me is resigned to being mislynched here. Because this game is fucking stupid.

I think spiff/firebringer has the last scum, with very high probability. I'm going to look in more depth at spiff today.

[implosion]

I really don't want this game on autopilot without at least thinking about it first.

very very strongly this.

Can we PLEASE like, not lose this game.

We also need to look back and see who chara docced n1.

[implosion]

I think spiff/firebringer has the last scum, with very high probability. I'm going to look in more depth at spiff today.

What's stupid about it?

aristophanes doing literally nothing but still being really obvious town for the sole reason of he wouldn't pick scum and getting lynched anyway because everyone else was also obvious town

ginngie fakeclaiming a guilty

the two scum that we've caught so far basically just handing themselves to us?

the likely multiple lies at massclaim making the game fucking impossible to wrap my head around in completeness

like i don't feel like i've gotten to play a game of mafia here. It's like a facsimile thereof. I can probably keep going.

[implosion]

we get THREE more lynches. If I'm one of them then I want DAMN good reasons for spiffeh and fire to not be the other two.

[implosion]

haha funny joke it was definitely funny when you did that thing that ruined the gmae for 10 people then fucking ignored everyone else and scoffed at them for lambasting you about it hahahahah funny

[implosion]

spiffeh has done absolutely jack shit in the past three game days. He's been coasting on his laurels of "my play toward mulch was obvious town," and has refused to engage with a single point against him seriously.

He's made zero effort to find the last scum.

He's made zero effort in general.

[implosion]

Basically.

Keely. I don't think I'm going to be able to convince you that I'm town today but I really need to dialogue with you about who gets lynched after me, if I am lynched today. You and patrick and Kmd are basically the only people in this game that I feel like I can have a productive dialogue with right now. Maybe una but.

[implosion]

ugh.

I am going to close my laptop for the next hour because i literally will not be able to do any work if i leave it open.

When i get home i'll probably be on for large swathes of the evening. Happy to talk w/ anyone then.

[implosion]

i am here and i am a VANILLA TOWNIE

[implosion]

if no lynch is SOMEHOW hammered before things are made more explicit then una needs to protect patrick 100% for obvious reasons.

At the same time, there is LITERALLY NO FUCKING REASON WHATSOEVER to be voting no lynch right now so can we fucking not.

[implosion]

he needs to claim in a completely unambiguous, non-cheeky way that gives him no room to squirrel away from anything if he's scum.

[implosion]

Actually though firebringer can you please claim completely unambiguously. Seriously.

You're just delaying the game, and that's no fun for anyone :\

[implosion]

yeah remember firebringer didn't roll scummates of cabd+mulch

*RC* rolled scummates of cabd+mulch.

like that has to be astrologically significant.

VOTE: Firebringer

(thank you patrick)

[implosion]

also yeah shout out to keely for keeping me occasionally sane in this game