White Flag - TM2020

[Auro]

Vote Count

Espeonage - 6

(Dannflor, Dunnstral, Formerfish, BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Auro)

goobledygook - 2

(Cephrir, Hopkirk)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

CheekyTeeky - 1

(Dongempire)

Hopkirk - 1

(Espeonage)

Not Voting - 0

Activity Check - Lynch at #2236

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

Thanks cap.
VOTE: Formerfish

Dong coolly chooses to bus FF over NSG instead of trying to divert the wagon anywhere else?

Nsg/cheeky/maybe hop

Thats where my mind is at. I dont think i will be considering anyone else to lynch tomorrow but i do want to make a case on esp come tomorrow.

And then says he wants to lynch FF and then also lynch NSG tomorrow? Hm

[Auro]

BBMolla, thoughts on FF?

[Auro]

I've been through this shit already.

That's what I feel when you ask me for a reads list.

[Auro]

Thank about what one more townread from my PoV implies.

[Auro]

Think*

[Auro]

Okay

[Auro]

Auro
Dann
Cheeky
Dong
Molla
FF=Gobbles

Nancy's readslist.

[Auro]

Hm. FF, you know what would help townread you? A comprehensive Reundo solve.

[Auro]

So from my PoV it's safer to mislynch Auro than to mislynch Dong/FF.

Spoiler: Math that will annoy Cheeky

Let x be the confidence that Auro is town, 0-1.
Win% if {Auro/Dann/Cheeky} are town and bloc: 83.33%

Win% if Auro townflip and no Dann/Cheeky LyLo paranoia: 40%
Win% if Auro scum and mislynch: 100%
Win% EV with Auro confidence: (2/5)x+(1-x)

Solve for that equalling 83.33% or 5/6: x = 5/18 ≈ 28%

So unless you're more than 72% sure Auro is scum, Auro lynch isn't safer. Auro mislynch brings down the winrate by 43% if town.

Tldr; Auro mislynch isn't safer unless you have a very high degree of confidence in it

[Auro]

Same with Fish

FF being a counterwagon to NSG doesn't imply he's town; it was pointed out before that both wagons had very similar composition, with the same bloc of people starting both - do you disagree that that makes it less likely FF is a town counterwagon?

Lol I'm surprised you find the NSG/FF thing disingenuous - if I was scum what's the point in trying to intentionally act dense over the typo, versus actually believing I typed NSG and not FF? I don't see why it's those "little things" that you have concern with when you've given other reasons before ("Controlling the game") and I have been pushing you really really hard - so you think my case(s) on you were justified?

[Auro]

Linking multiple from phone is hard. Since you just want scumgames in general, just go to my profile and click on games which also have the corresponding Mafia PT linked nearby? Ctrl+f for "Crown of Misery", "Nomination Mafia", "Newbie 1893". There's a newbie where I was scum and FF was town and I got close to lynched, don't recall the number.

You're right, I consciously maintain consistency in scum. How would you read me then? You've seen how I approached reading Dann - do you find my towncase unconvincing?

Do you actually believe I have "more partners"? Who? I can only think of Dann and Molla as plausible teammates. If Dong was my teammate, I would coach him. If FF was my teammate, I wouldn't be asking for his TM partners' solves.

If your solve is {Auro, Dann, Dong} there's a good chance fypov it's Auro+Dann and given that you believe a mislynch causes your "turbo lynch" in LyLo, you seem pretty unconcerned - how come?

[Auro]

If Dong ends up being town I think the scumteam becomes clearer

Can we discuss this hypothetical? What does Dong town imply?

[Auro]

When were you pushing me really hard? ToDay?

Ever since D2? Did you not get the impression that I was pushing you?

[Auro]

Which combos do you have that don't include Dong?

FF|Gobbles
Gobbles|Molla

I don't see the lynch resistance you talk about? He already has two votes from you and Dann. Gob wants to lynch him. You just need one more vote from Cheeky and me.

[Auro]

To be honest, I thought your push Day 1 was stronger than anything else you've done towards me. It might be because I have mostly accepted my fate

Can you answer the rest of my questions, too, Gob?
Day 1 I townread you and pushed against Dunn scumreading you. What do you mean, it was stronger than anything else?

I wouldn't expect you to just "accept your fate", despite being mislynched frequently you do seem like a fighter. Idk.

I'll mention that it's quite enjoyable interacting with you though. ^_^

[Auro]

Cheeky don't hammer.

[Auro]

Oh nevermind.

[Auro]

I get that my word here doesnt mean much, and i wish I could say more about why I feel this way, but I cant.

Very simple, just get help from your team to articulate. I don't see why that's difficult.

[Auro]

I agree with Cheeky's conclusion here.

[Auro]

FF lynch does nothing for me.

I already think they’re town and then I end up in a lylo with Dong and Auro butting heads and no further answers.

Idk, I feel like you could flip FF and Dong in the above and it'll still make sense, FF and I would "butt heads" at LyLo...

[Auro]

You're sure I'm scum. I also believe you believe Dann makes sense as my partner.

What do you mean when you say things don't make any sense? That doesn't make sense.

[Auro]

And I mean take help from your team to articulate your solve.
If Reundo has a different conclusion, I want to hear it.
If Reundo has the same conclusion as you, I want to hear his reasons.

Simple. This is not a big ask.

[Auro]

Yeah you shouldn't, first articulate what you want to articulate properly and take help from your team if all you can come up with is "Auro scumread gut"; and answer my question in 3610 about why it doesn't make sense.

[Auro]

You're sure I'm scum. I also believe you believe Dann makes sense as my partner.

What do you mean when you say things don't make any sense?

In case you missed.
You shouldn't get to complain that people "can't read you".

[Auro]

Dude there must be more than what you're unable to talk about within the game.

[Auro]

To clarify, when you say you can't talk about it, you don't mean your reasons for Auroscum?

[Auro]

FF, hammer Dong then.

[Auro]

Cheeky I think FF is bluffing, we should just let him hammer.

[Auro]

White flag gambit. You threaten to hammer, we rule out FF-Dong team.

[Auro]

I think Dong is a mislynch now

[Auro]

Dann, does Ank still think FF|Dong is the team?

[Auro]

I'm back to thinking Gob is the best lynch again.

[Auro]

Dann. If you're only scumreading FF+Dong do you think FF really WF gambited in these two pages?

[Auro]

He literally just went from "I don't like the Dong wagon" to "I'm gonna hammer" in the same kind of turn

Well, he did say there was something he couldn't talk about.

[Auro]

Dann is scum

Ooooooooh

[Auro]

Now unvote please.

[Auro]

Nope. I wanted to see if you'd actually vote.

[Auro]

If this was a gambit, very well executed - cause I buy it.

[Auro]

Auro/Gobbles

[Auro]

Cheeky had me believing I was going to be the hammer becasue she chastized me for calling it and taking it from her.

Yeah I believe it. That's why I said that if it was a gambit, well done

[Auro]

If you think FF is lying, he's a better vote than Dong anyway.

[Auro]

Ank prefers to lynch FF

Then why keep Doing at L-1?

[Auro]

Every time they post though it seems agendaless, but also the early wagons

I don't see which early wagon clears Gobbles.
Gobbles was on the NSG wagon sure, but Dong hammered it.
Didn't you say they might have been lurking on and off while town destroyed itself? So they can choose to be agendaless; why does that make them town?

[Auro]

because I'm an indecisive fuck myself

Then don't keep your vote anywhere at all.

[Auro]

Cheeky, no matter the lynch today, if it's wrong you should seriously consider Gobscum if I'm not there.

[Auro]

Individual read confidence should weigh into possible team confidence, you shouldn't simply go with "more possible teams"

[Auro]

Unexpectedly I'm on FF's side here and believe him. Lol

[Auro]

Danns been pretty quiet all day and then Dong hits l-1 and he goes ballistic trying to swing the lynch my way.

Dann was part of that L-1 though, lol

[Auro]

Maybe we should just lynch gobbles

I would very highly prefer this.
FF I'm sorry if I'm asking for the nth time but let's please talk about Gobbles read.

[Auro]

FF from my read of his meta it doesn't match. There must be a reason. Can you explain which elements from meta?

[Auro]

Now, our individual read confidence does play into team confidence! But when individual reads are fairly close, covering more ground is appealing because there's always a chance I'm wrong on a town read

There's more. Team confidence within two scumreads is higher than a scumread with townread. Fmpov only consider within the four as primary

[Auro]

And what discounts BB+Gob again?

[Auro]

You think Auro+Gob is possible, which I have the same reaction to.

[Auro]

so gobbles is getting run up, everything thinks he's scum

so he gets mad, cusses everyone out, and leaves

idk the whole thing doesn't seem like gobbles scum strategy

Interestingly, I don't think Gob has ever really been "run up" in a significant sense.

[Auro]

Dann wants to vote in FF/Dong, thinks Gob is town
You want to vote Dong, think Gob is town
FF wants to vote Dong/Me, thinks Gob is town

Literally only Cheeky and I are thinking he's scum.

And where'd he get mad and cuss people out? Are you talking about a previous day? Lolwut is there some big gap in my memory?

[Auro]

*Significant sense*
This wagon quickly disappeared and was replaced by Hopkirk.

[Auro]

Dann, you believe Molla's vote on Gob in that VC makes their pairing improbable, and FF's Dong vote today is a gambit?

[Auro]

Auro/Dann I think

Auro/Gobbles?

If Auro/Gobbles, wtf am I doing right now trying to get others to unvote Dong/FF and vote Gobbles?

Can Gob be scum with FF? If yes, why is Gobbles/FF not a valid solve if Dong flips town?

[Auro]

Dann? What's your implication?

[Auro]

I don't get how your question about Hopkirk helps. What was the point of it?

[Auro]

Dong scum and his partner

Who could Dong's partner be, though, given his recent wagon?

[Auro]

Just putting this out - Gobble, please don't hammer before Cheeky and/or I make up our mind, I'll treat a hammer from you as a scum claim.

[Auro]

I don't get how your question about Hopkirk helps. What was the point of it?

If I was scum, I would have to be scum with someone who made the Hopkirk wagon happen because that person would have needed to protect me. Otherwise, I would have just gotten lynched when I was VLA. Who would that person be?

It's not a necessity for your partner to have to start another wagon to protect you. Dann and Ceph were the starting votes of the Hop wagon. Ceph flipped town. I believe Dann's town, but

if

somehow I'm wrong you're a possible partner and your theory fits - otherwise two town simply started it. Molla was the third vote and I see him as a pretty viable partner to you - is there strong evidence otherwise to that association?

Just putting this out - Gobble, please don't hammer before Cheeky and/or I make up our mind, I'll treat a hammer from you as a scum claim.

???

Why would I hammer when I’ve been very public about slow rolling this day?

Yes - so just putting it out.

[Auro]

Dann's referring to how FF hammered Hopkirk within a minute of Cheeky's L-1 vote and claimed that her vote didn't show up in the preview.

[Auro]

Molla wagon

: Cheeky, Dann,

Cephrir

, Formerfish, Dong

NSG wagon

:

Kittymo

,

Dunnstral

, gobbledygook, BBMolla, Dannflor,

Cephrir

, Dong

I don't see why he can't be a partner to you from this. You'll have to convince me with other reasons.

[Auro]

VOTE: Auro

OMGUS VOTE: Dannfloor
L-2

[Auro]

Contextually it makes some sense especially given the readiness of FF/Dong's Molla votes.

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

As in I disagree with this specific argument but I think the type of argument is fine.

[Auro]

but hadnt bothered to directly engage with him.

Lmao

[Auro]

But to everyone besides auro and dann, why would i, as scum, go away during the most important part of the game when i couldve supposedly pushed a very easy auro mislynch?
Not an ironic question, this is legit. Thats why i excludee auro and dann in the first place

You did try to push the "very easy Auro mislynch"...

[Auro]

But to everyone besides auro and dann, why would i, as scum, go away during the most important part of the game when i couldve supposedly pushed a very easy auro mislynch?
Not an ironic question, this is legit. Thats why i excludee auro and dann in the first place

To everyone but Dong:
He did try to push the "very easy Auro mislynch"...

Okay. I read the first bit out loud and corrected my post.

[Auro]

btw been thinking about it

and if the assumption is that scum!FF would always kill Cheeky

then scum!Dann would also definitely always kill Cheeky over Dunn & Cephrir, two slots that had me locked as their top town

Yup, I said this a bunch of times. Especially if scum!Dann+Auro, we'd be quite stupid to kill Ceph/Dunn and then wifom

[Auro]

Lmfao it’s crazy how impossible this Dong wagon is to get through

No. He was at L-1 and my vote could lynch him. It's been impossible to get a *Gobble* lynch through.

[Auro]

So it wasn't just me right?

I don't think FormerFish should be your source of validation here

FF's vote on Dann is scummy. If Dann and I are TvS as in his example, why is it not that I'm scum pocketing him? Shouldn't FF be making efforts trying to figure out who's pocketing who, because the wrong lynch could lead to a loss?

My standard of logical proficiency for FF is quite low, but the opportunism still doesn't feel town.

Gobbles, what do you think? I'd like us to discuss things independent of D1 wagons.

[Auro]

whichever slot ends up with less suspicion / town reads me more / is

calmer

Ah but Dann you forget, calmness is a scumtell! Clearly.

[Auro]

FF will simply say "Ah, so it was Auro pocketing Dann" if Dann's lynched.

[Auro]

There's a difference between reasoned self-doubt and opportunistic illogical belief shifts.

Cheeky, unvote Dann.

[Auro]

It's quite sad that Gobbles is the sanest voice here apart from Dann and I think Gobbles is scum.

[Auro]

I have you and molla as town, gob as most likely town. I am willing to except a world where Auro is town, so that leaves dong and dann.

If im wrong on Dong then i think the nk is almost forced to make this more evident tomorrow.

VOTE: Dong

My PoE has it down to 2 people, you and Auro. I know there is a chance that im wrong, so im saying I want you first because.

I dont get what is so hard to understand about what ive been saying. Ive been more than forward about most of it.

[Auro]

Crack high seems to be your baseline.

[Auro]

how fucking chill he was about me

Abscence =/= being chill.
Why was my "calm" reaction to Cheeky voting me scummy, but Dong being "chill" towny?

[Auro]

You can try to be better now, FormerFish.

[Auro]

Because you were doing it while admitting she was acting crazy and irrational. Like while you should have been taking a 2nd look at her you didnt, and you are getting upset for me taking a 2nd look at dong, getting a little dong crazy, and then it wearing off.

Different strokes my dude.

So you think I'm scum for being good at the game? Because my reads are holistic?
I did take a second look the first time when she put me to L-1, saying she's the correct lynch if I was lynched then; the second time she did it I wrote it off to town dumbness.

[Auro]

Oh booboo, i dont think theres going to be any way i please you this game. Ive come to grips with it.

Actually there is, give me Reundo's inputs on the game. You're choosing not to do this.

[Auro]

But Auro/Dann is your solve, right? If Dann flips town, Auro/Dann cannot be the solve... who's my partner then?

[Auro]

Please prod Reundo then.

[Auro]

Somehow he's even saltier than me and he's not even in this game.

Nancy gave me permission a few days ago to call everyone gamethrowing WOATs.
I'll paraphrase what she's been discussing in the PT with a few cuts.

Whoever's town is risking gamethrowing and playing poorly. They should feel bad. After your (Auro) flip, Dann will be killed and scum will win, because Dann is 100% conftown after you flip.
Gob is possibly scum, independent of Cheeky.
<3 Dann.
I agree that it's suspicious for FF to ignore his teammate's read.
..
Agree with Dann on Cheeky. There's always paranoia about Dann, he pretty much only started playing a lot townier after BP.
..
Yes, Dann is obvtown since he won't defend you at this point and for his Cheeky read.
I'm almost a 100% sure on that.
.. (Some complaints from me about Cheeky asking for a reads list and saying it's BS that my scumpool has everyone but Dann and Cheeky in it)
I struggle to come up with reads lists in my actual games xD
Gobbles/Molla is unlikely due to VCA, convey that to her.
I think Dann's right about Dong. VCA shows Molla town but less certain.
.. (Reads list that I quoted earlier)
Cheeky opposed NSG wagon and NSG would have told her teammates to bus since she loathes playing scum, this + frustration makes cheeky town. Try reading the posts leading up to NSG lynch, whoever hard opposed could be likely town. No way scum stopped that lynch, if scum knows their teammate is toast they bus them unless their partner has a powerful role.
Why didn't you tell me Dann changed his mind on Don? I don't know then, the above was partially based on his reads.
(Quotes cheeky's post about Nancy's list making me town)
Haha, I can obvtown as town even from outside the game xD
..(I mention the Dong wagon)
Dong's possibly scum, play around NSG looks bad.
Dann and Cheeky are locktown anyway.
Wouldn't clear scummy slots voting him because it could be a bus, scum is surely on his wagon if flips town though

[Auro]

Oh Davesaz is also in your team, it would've been great to see his opinions too

[Auro]

VOTE: Dongempire

[Auro]

Sorry to hammer but I'd rather this over a Dann lynch.
Dong please tell me the game's over.

[Auro]

You forced my hand.
Dong you made great NKs but you should've really concentrated on pushing within Molla/Gobbles/FF whoever was town in that, if you were scum.

[Auro]

Lynching Dann was autoloss anyway. I'd rather take my bets on Dong!scum. You can thank me post game.

[Auro]

Why was it obvious dong, I don't take any blame for lynching you

[Auro]

Hm
UNVOTE:

[Auro]

I think the appeal to Molla was pretty towny actually.

[Auro]

I thought Cheeky was playing along and was pretty impressed at her posts lol

[Auro]

Dann, I think FF-Dong scumteam is highly improbable now. At least one of your townreads on Molla and Gobbles is wrong.

[Auro]

Molla, why is FF-Gobbles ruled out fypov? And please don't post some Votecount as the sole basis for it. I will post a whole bunch of votecounts with me voting Gob as response.

[Auro]

It's quite funny that multiple people accuse me of being scum with Dong and Gobbles.

[Auro]

So do you agree Cheeky is locktown?

[Auro]

Why don’t you think I’m town Auro

Maybe it is Auro/Dann?

I donno. Do you think I could fake everything I’ve said?

Let me flip this on you - why aren't you townreading me, Molla? Why must I be townreading you? I have far more content - you think I should conclude that you can't fake what you've posted. Do *you* think I can fake everything I've done so far?

[Auro]

At this point I'm pretty convinced.

But if Dong is town I'm basically throwing out my reads and restarting

Then I want you to do this restart right now, so I can lock your trajectories if you're scum. Assume Dong!town and let's arrive at your conclusion.

[Auro]

At what point did you relook at that Newbie game?

[Auro]

Yes please.

[Auro]

I can try tomorrow night? It'd require a whole lot of fucking reading.

C'mon you should read better than this.

[Auro]

@FF

[Auro]

Yes... I think there's a good possibility he's scum. Don't quite think Dong is, anymore. I'm at Molla+Gobbles now. Why is Molla-Gobbles not a pair?

[Auro]

Scum him doesn't do that? You have meta evidence for it?
I've swung wagons away from you, why am I not town for that?

[Auro]

I think that at some point town has to find whatever town block they can and try to work with that block.

I agree. I found my town bloc - Cheeky, Dann and myself. I'm trying to work with them. I've recently established a somewhat strong Dong townread within the rest of the players aw well.

Why do you accuse me of making it seem like "every slot is back on the chopping block"?

[Auro]

somewhat strong Dong townread within the rest of the players

@BB this should answer.

[Auro]

Dann all three were fooled and one of the must be town, no?

[Auro]

I think a prepared reaction from Dong would've been different.

[Auro]

Are you 2nd guessing a Molla TR?

Yes. I've already mentioned that his tier of TR was a lot lower than Cheeky and Dann. His slot is not one I would bin away as town and not focus on.

[Auro]

Auro is coaching Dong to bus him

A shit strategy when you look at other town slots wanting to vote me (FF, previously Cheeky) or having me as their solve (Gobble)

[Auro]

If I *did* coach him, it would be to look generically townier than FF/Gobbles/you without necessarily bussing me.

[Auro]

If I *did* coach him, it would be to look generically townier than FF/Gobbles/you without necessarily bussing me.

I disagree

I think you coached him to bus you because you think he's a weak player, you know his votes on you wouldn't do shit because nobody gives him merit. You've kept him in the nullzone all game to avoid actually lynching him, and now that things look really fucking bad you faked a hammer to try to fake a town reaction and then insisted it was super town when it really wasn't

like, it makes SO much fucking sense

Nobody gives me merit, but people were happy to vote for me because of their own reasons and not Dong's.
Seems like I'm possible teammates with Gobble, Dong AND Dann now, eh?

why is anyone town reading FF

I still don't understand

Why are you town reading Molla? I don't grok it at all. This has been unexplained.

[Auro]

I REALLY think it's Auro/Dong atm

If you're 100% sure, lynch, and let me dictate the lynch tomorrow.

[Auro]

I REALLY think it's Auro/Dong atm

If you're 100% sure, lynch, and let me dictate the lynch tomorrow.

who are you gonna lynch

75% Gob
25% You

[Auro]

Oh so if Dong flips town I'm not scum and you're cool with a Gobbles lynch?

[Auro]

As I said, I'm locking your potential trajectories if you're scum. Calling me a PoE scumread and then partners with all but 2 of the other slots, though... that's scummy.

[Auro]

Like, I'll try to be clear, I've had some okay games as scum, I'm not beyond terrible, but I have limits, and the posting in this game is beyond what I could fake

Point me to either the specific posts or progressions.
Your bar for faking is high by virtue of your reputation as a scum player.

[Auro]

how is doing that optimal for me as scum?

What other paths do you have, if Gob is your partner?
Dann - sure. Cheeky - nah. FF/Gobbles - townreads, and even then there must be a partner in {Dann/Auro} if Dann/Auro isn't the solve, justifying your voting either of us.

[Auro]

I REALLY think it's Auro/Dong atm

If you're 100% sure, lynch, and let me dictate the lynch tomorrow.

Wait a second. Has dong not been hammered? I'm very confused right now.

Lol dude seriously?

[Auro]

Townreading him gives you better justification to lynch me; scumreading him antagonizes him and that's a bad idea when he already wants to lynch me.

[Auro]

Like, I can't prove this because the site crashed and the game was deleted, but I played an ythan nightless where all three of my mafia buddies were lynched in the first four days.

I survived 8 mislynches and won the game

You don't do that by playing erratically, you do it by planning out each read and progressing it slowly to tip it over and have it be a viable lynch.

I'm erratic because I'm town. I'm also fucking terrible, which is why I consistently live till LYLO, but if you can read me as town I can literally just be this bulletproof townie slot

I don't understand why you're still coming at me.

This qualifies, no?

[Auro]

Dude strategy doesn't matter. You're competent and have the ability to be townread. Your scum competence must be much lower for me to believe you can't fake the posts you've made this game.

[Auro]

And I don't have strong reasons to believe your play is independently townie and none at all to believe Molla-Gobbles isn't a pair.

[Auro]

What am I supposed to conclude from them?

[Auro]

I'm bad?

The only person I see BB being scum with is Dann.

Why not Gob?

[Auro]

I'm really putting my heart and soul into this game, I've had so many town losses lately, it'd be really fucking nice to get a W

like, scum losses are whatever, you can't get mad, you were scum, getting lynched is almost expected. cause you're lying and you get caught.

it's demoralizing to lose so much as town cause it literally just means I'm bad

I just really want to win, I really think it's Dong, and if I'm wrong I'm going to give 110% to solve this fucking game in LYLO, but I gotta be real it'd be real nice if we won with a Dong lynch.

All I know is if Dong doesn't go today, it'd be super painful to either lose to them in LYLO (if they're scum and don't get lynched) or mislynch them in LYLO.

I think you'd effort as scum too, tbh. I'm afraid Dong is a mislynch; please work with me to see Gobbles town.

[Auro]

Why not Gob?

Voting patterns D1/D2.

I've looked at the VCs.
I don't see it - elaborate?

[Auro]

Yes, Gobbles does effort significantly more when he's town. He linked "bad" town games but I feel he did put in more effort there than in this game.

[Auro]

D3 trying to lynch him

Cheeky, look at that vote and the posts surrounding that vote. It doesn't appear at all that Molla was trying to get him lynched.

[Auro]

Yes but Molla hasn't expressed any intent to lynch Gobbles today which is consistent with the Molla+Gobble solve, right? Am I missing something?

[Auro]

I think 2202 was a reaction to my strong push on a BB/Gobbles solve and subsequent Gobbles wagon, Cheeky.
He seemed to carry an intense tone at points in his linked scumgames, too. Check once?

[Auro]

If I were scum I wouldn't have that wagon on me in the first place
(Not saying I'm never wagoned as scum, just that I'd avoid playing in the style that caused that specific wagon to form on me.)

[Auro]

Oh God we're back to the "how dare you call Dunn scum for pushing Gobbles, wow chainsaw" argument?

[Auro]

That's a towntell for me though, I engage with pushes on me pretty hard as town because that helps gamesolve. As scum I'd know I'm annoying people by doing that, at least would realize that that's what's happening when I do that. I'd focus on looking generically towny (asking towny questions, fluid voting etc) instead.

"Overly self conscious" I don't think you'll find this if you lol at my scumgames. I'd argue with people like Thor for pages upon pages because people always suspect him at the end of it for some reason.

[Auro]

Hi!
VOTE: wgeurts
Wagons

Scumpost.

Why did you ask that question?

I will reveal this once everyone has answered

It's perfectly fine to introduce a discussion point, but why not just explain that at the beginning?
What have you learnt from the responses?

Try hard scumpost.

I must say I'm loving this game - less spam, a lot of walls, a slower pace

Yes, Gobble did replace into both of those scumgames perhaps, but the tone is still very different. Even with some amount of early game content Gobble's tone has remained the same; so I'm not interested in any attacks there. Minus points to Dunn for continuing to push there.

I'm liking Dann more now, specifically that he had TW giving him insights and the explanation didn't seem post-hoc-fabricated.

FormerFish isn't as impressive as his former games at all. He has a lot of posts, but not a lot of content, save a weakish push on KittyMo.

VOTE: auro

?

VOTE: FormerFish

Obvious scumpost.

Scumpost

[Auro]

You very well know why I said that.
Actually nevermind, nah you don't.

[Auro]

And yet no one can really articulate why it's "obviously scum" or "bad". Which reveals that they didn't think deeper about said posts, or the motivations behind said posts, or how the characteristics they observed in the posts which "made them bad" could be part of playstyle, etc etc.

It's quite lazy to simply call them bad without justification. And a common line of reasoning I see you guys take is "You were scum and obviously trying to do this" without considering the "You were town and trying to do that" counter universe. When you call that scummy in itself, the former must carry significantly more likelihood.

This is the last I'll comment on this - I'm not defending myself to you any more. I'm tired of this. If you're lynching me, go ahead - you'll find that Dong, FormerFish and Molla will all sheep you. And take the blame for it post game - don't blame me for a "scummy RVS post" later.

Anyone with competent eyes will see that in retrospect, even if it felt bad to them it's outweighed by my later play heavily. The only ones who'd share your perspective are Dong and FF, I don't think you should be proud of that. Molla at least is placing me in a PoE and trying to justify his position in other ways.

Dann, we still need to talk about Molla. I'm slowly giving up on the game, but I've been right about every flip so far and I want the perfect solve personally. :3

[Auro]

BB you need to open your eyes buddy because we have scum!Auro here setting you up for after the town!Dong flip.

But I don't want a Dong flip
I've been arguing against a Dong flip
So

[Auro]

VOTE: Gobbledygook

[Auro]

It's quite sad that Gobbles is the sanest voice here apart from Dann and I think Gobbles is scum.

^

[Auro]

That answers half of the question, why wait if you thought that?

I was not going to vote now, but I'm kinda giving up, so might as well.

[Auro]

I don't get it. You think I'm scum, why would Molla sheeping Cheeky on an Auro lynch be dumb?

[Auro]

Oh you're saying that my saying Molla will sheep Cheeky on an Auro lynch is dumb
Hahaha
Right that makes a lot more sense

[Auro]

Hey that's not what I told you to say in the scum PT!!

[Auro]

Cheeky if Auro is town I’m just going to instavote Dong tomorrow

You confident that sequence leads to us winning?

In the event that I'm lynched, I'm currently thinking you should be lynched and not Dong.

[Auro]

Cool.
FF, if I'm lynched and flip town, will you listen to dead town Auro and lynch Molla if it's Molla v Dong?

[Auro]

Explain why that's an insane position to take - I disagree with you that you're "bad at scum" and that's not a premise you'll convince me on.

What else makes you obv town that I'm missing?

[Auro]

And I honestly don't think you need to be that good at scum to post what you've posted in this thread, either, honestly.

[Auro]

Oh hell no. You'd have to be *pretty* bad at scum so as to not be able to fake your posting in this game.

You're at the very least at a certain baseline of scumplay. You established that yourself - you're aware of what progressions to take, bla blah blah.

[Auro]

I mean, I've read random tidbits of old games for funzies since I joined more than a year ago. And your own post I quoted showed that you know how to play scum on a fundamental level. You also said you fake AtE as scum; so ate from you isn't unfakeable as well.

Why must I believe you're town, apart from "my scum play is shit and therefore I'm town" when I don't think your posting here is spectacular anyway?

[Auro]

Cheeky can you promise to listen to my reads if I flip?

[Auro]

Maybe Nancy meant it's towny but not enough to overtake Dong? "Less certain" prolly referred to the weight of vca in the read?

[Auro]

Sure what are your reads when you flip?

Dann locktown for one. Promise not to get paranoid.
And currently a lynch mostly in {BB/Gobbles}.
But I'll tell you my final solve before lynch and that's what you should sheep.

[Auro]

You must have noticed I'm asking him continuously why Molla is town and Molla-Gob can't be a pair?

[Auro]

Between then and now I have stronger reasons to believe both Dong and FF are town.

[Auro]

Auro go ask Nancy about me, I'm sure Nancy will tell you all about my play

She would've let me know if she believed your scum play sucks so much that you're obvtown when town, but sure, I'll ask her.

[Auro]

Between then and now I have stronger reasons to believe both Dong and FF are town.

This is in response to?

Cheeky wondering why I my final solve was "sheep Dann" last time I was plausibly getting lynched whereas "listen to me and lynch one of Gobbles and Molla, wait for me to say which" now.

[Auro]

Molla you're not fine if my "venge" is Gob? You've given quite a few reasons he could be scum for.

[Auro]

I think between the threats of instavoting Dong and my own flip, Dong should re-evaluate.

[Auro]

I'll work on Dong. But first I need you and FF to promise. If you're just going to ignore and get paranoid of everyone tomorrow and repeat the same shit then I'll not bother, so just tell me seriously in advance.

[Auro]

Can you answer about not working at getting Dann on your side with your gobbles/BB reads?

You must have noticed I'm asking him continuously why Molla is town and Molla-Gob can't be a pair?

[Auro]

So eh Auro > Dong is palatable

Ok so you'll not only lynch me but also ignore my reads
And don't want to discuss Mollascum or Gob Molla pair

Okay. Give up. Have fun.

[Auro]

I don't think you have, Gob

[Auro]

Gob, do you think Auro|Dong is a valid solve? If I'm town, Dong's town - agree? Since everyone else wants to lynch it and I'm the only one fighting it.

[Auro]

Why is Molla town, Gob?

[Auro]

Why would it be Dong+Dann? Did you look at who's voting for Dong right now?

[Auro]

To realize what makes Gobbles scum, look at any of his town games - even the ones he linked that were "bad" and then see what he's doing here.

His level of effort as town is much higher than it has been this game. Molla keeps asking for graphs, you know why? He's actually gone through the effort of creating activity based graphs manually previously as town, to figure out scum.

What deeper thought processes is he displaying here? All the previous pages seem to have done little to change his conclusion. The maximum change in his stances is to "unsure". Sure.

He isn't busy. He's been given every opportunity to get into the game. I refuse to believe he's town and "in a confused position" and hence not playing. What he's doing is strategic lurking - the bare minimum to appear generic towny while town eats itself. His final solve of "Auro/Dong, otherwise Dann/Dong" without substantiation is scummy for Gob. Gob has been nommed for brilliant town play I think - so this is very weird, right?

--

To see why Molla is scum, simply look at the trajectory he's taking with me. He finds it insane that I believe his scum play is baseline competent. I should believe he's town, because his scum play is apparently shit and he's out of that range. Feel free to fact check if he's indeed a shit-tier scumplayer. Nothing Molla done has struck me as towny this game. His "Auro+Dong" solve is bad. His considering that Auro+Gobbles is a team is horrible.

His agenda is pretty transparent. He's accused me of being scum with Dann, Dong and Gobble. Basically any town lynch today, he can justify voting me in LyLo. He wants to make sure my lynch is followed by a Dong lynch - check the top of this page.

His defense of Gobbles in D2 was weird af, please re-read the posts. That's not the usual area where Molla gets emotional. He doesn't give that much of a shit if a townread of his is being wagoned on D2 *after* a scum lynch. Consider the counter hypothetical. Would he care if his partner was being wagoned to death? No shit? Obviously he'd have to come in and defend his partner - there was too much momentum to start an attack elsewhere. The AtE in those pages is extreme. He asks to be lynched instead because town is so shit.

Yet,

he acknowledges that there are valid points for scum Gob. He admits his read of Gob is from "gut" from a few posts.

He's continually asking Gobbles for graphs because he thinks that that will get Gobbles townread. He isn't bothering much to interact with Gobbles to strengthen his gut read.

--

You can also approach this via PoE. Dann is pretty obvtown and the only partner I can see for him is Gobbles otherwise. Dann's put in an incredible effort this game and that's sort of unnecessary. The night kills make absolutely zero sense for Dann to have made - it's very suboptimal from a strategical viewpoint. His votes on NSG were awkward and not in a way that makes you feel he doesn't want her lynched. Scum bussing doesn't go CFD "fuck it, yolo" at the end of the day.

Cheeky's progressions, while wild, still hold internal consistency - I doubt she would be able to fake all that. She's town.

FormerFish has been paying zero attention to the game, evidently. Yes, some of his views are inconsistent. I think that's within FF's town range. I believe that this level of poor play is actually towny for him. Again, if he's scum... He's not with Dong. I believe he was genuinely not keeping track of votes. There's not been a single instance showing that he did. He's town.

Dongempire's made bad pushes which look like a scum agenda... But who can he even be partners with? It seems to have been a common feature throughout this game that when I defend someone they suddenly become my partner and thus have to be lynched. Dann alleged the same about Hopkirk yesterday when I defended him. Both Gobbles and Molla are saying it now. Dongempire's reaction to the fakehammer seems to come from town over scum knowing it was a fakehammer. He isn't bothering a lot about his own lynch. He's angry that I said Molla will hammer me, and that comes from town.
Meanwhile, everyone else is fine voting him for whatever reasons. He's town.

This leaves Gobbles and Molla.

--

My townreading Dong is bad for the gamestate from Gobbles+Molla PoV. That's why both of them say I'm Dong's partner; to rubbish and discredit my townread.

[Auro]

that scum in the later days of White Flag hard bus one another to disassociate from one another.

Yeah yeah this gambit needs to be executed well, you won't park a vote on a teammate that the rest of the game wants to lynch.

The expected scum outcome from the gambit is town crossing out an association between the two scum; this is pointless if the slot in question's being voted independent of that, yeah?

So whether a vote can plausibly be called a WF gambit is contextual, yes? And in this case it definitely isn't.

You're yet to make a towncase for Molla.

[Auro]

Why would I follow your reads when you can't even explain why you're not trying to get Dann to follow them?

Dude. I'm trying. I've been asking Dann to talk to me about them. I've quoted it multiple times to you. Right now he's present. What do you want me to do?

[Auro]

And there's been new information since the fakehammer. Before I was more willing to see Dann's solve. Now I'm not. I wish Dann would appear in thread so I can talk to him. I want him to follow them.

[Auro]

Dann, we still need to talk about Molla

A post from not so long ago, for example.
Cheeky this is a very dumb reason to not follow my reads if I flip town... Say it out loud. "I see Auro's town, but I won't follow them because he didn't try to convince his townread of them, although I'll ignore the posts where he did, and the other slot was absent".

[Auro]

That's a very poor reason for Molla town. Even if his play is scummy as town and thus NAI, nothing prevents you from looking at motivations and agendas. The wagons don't betray town!Molla. His late game wagon had mostly the same core players as the NSG wagon.

[Auro]

You seem more interested in resorting everyone else instead of getting a lynch through which looks like you're
Still positioning for an ideal outcome. Why are you even talking to gobbles when you want to lynch him? Do you think he'll vote himself?

Whatever Auro just give it up.

No, but it's helpful for this information to go to LyLo. You don't understand townplay.

I did give up wrt my own lynch. That's why I don't appear like I'm trying to get a lynch through.

I don't want anyone saying I was pushing Molla/Gob without reason or basis. I want my case on the record.

@Gob yes and that also means that's not reason to call him town for the wagon; if the wagon was largely town he could easily be scum.

Now that's done. Yeah maybe I'm wrong about everything anyway. I'lll stop posting unless Dann wants to talk. See ya.

[Auro]

Gobbles can you give your lynch order from scummiest to towniest?

Dong > Auro > Dann

I do think your play this day phase has been better than Dann's

[Auro]

Was wondering why Molla would ask Gobbles to do graphs in the game thread and not the scum PT

@Mod: the setup page says PT's only for night, is that true here?

[Auro]

You also share a factional Private Thread (PT), located [REDACTED], where you may talk at any time.

Nevermind. Hm.

[Auro]

<3 mason buddy

I find it interesting that Auro is fixated on me and my activity but is giving Dong a pass for his

Standard of play from meta

@Mod I wonder why scum have daytalk when history shows a high win% for the setup without daytalk. Daytalk helps scum a lot.

[Auro]

Effort, tone, attitude towards scumreads, strength of positions blah blah

I can replace out if she wants her slot back. No harm no foul

You missed the obvious pun here :O

[Auro]

Gobbles can you do some graphs

Gobbles what the fuck are you doing dude

godfuck

Gobbles do your posting frequency thing

look how fucking many posts we have

if you're scum lie to me about the results I don't fucking care but I want to see them graphs

-snip-

gobbles why haven't you graphed

BBmolla, you’re scumreading me for my post count?

Graphs gobbles!

Gobby can you graph

Hm. Although if daytalk is there this wouldn't really mean anything.

[Auro]

You go first, explain BB obvtown.

My turn on his slot is primarily from looking at how every other slot is ready to lynch him. Give me a viable partner. FormerFish's behavior isn't like a scum partner. He'd be attacking someone more intensely. His "gambit" hasn't *really* paid off wrt a Dong lynch

[Auro]

Dongempire's reaction to the fakehammer seems to come from town over scum knowing it was a fakehammer. He isn't bothering a lot about his own lynch. He's angry that I said Molla will hammer me, and that comes from town.

like this specifically

Yes, what about it? Dong seems less interested in fighting a lynch off, and instead there's anger at me. He's been accused of being scum with me and then... Continues to attack me?

[Auro]

I'll flip it. Look at the gamestate. If you believe I'm town then the only viable partner for Dong is FF and that too seems super weak from their combined play; this automatically makes Gobbles, or even FF a superior lynch. Given fmpov I'm town, you should understand the turn on the slot *from me*.

[Auro]

Dann, think about it. Being a "voice of reason" among the other townies is incredibly easy. Assuming that he'd simply jump on the simplest lynch wagons today is wayyyy too less of a standard for him. His progression on Cheeky is fine. His progression on me is pretty bad.

I need reasons behind gut against a Molla/Gob team, Dann.

[Auro]

Cheeky if Auro is town I’m just going to instavote Dong tomorrow

You confident that sequence leads to us winning?

I think he's fine lynching me, and look at this post where he wants to make sure cheeky is confident in the Auro->Dong sequence

[Auro]

Like... Dong scum doesn't push the other "LHF" or whatever terminology you want to use because that fucks him

Dong isn't kissing up to Molla though
Letting town push the other LHF puts them in a pretty good position in LyLo given this gamestate.

[Auro]

Sure Dann, look at the contexts behind each of those votes carefully. There wasn't any real danger of Gobs being lynched. Tell me if you find Molla voting Gob when it actually looked like Gobs could be lynched, I'll wait. Even in 2858 it appears like he's waiting for someone to say Auro/Dong is the team or whatever.

Today he said Auro/Dann is bullshit, then pretty quick changes to "Hmm might be Auro/Dann", how does that look obvtown?

[Auro]

Auro/Dann is nonsense.

Dann/Cheeky makes most sense if we're theorizing he's scum.

Why don’t you think I’m town Auro

Maybe it is Auro/Dann?

So what, suddenly not nonsense because I don't townread him?

[Auro]

You had a high confidence scumread in Hop.
I hard defended Hop, you then justified lynching him to eliminate Auro-Hop solve.
Then got paranoid I had TMI in hindsight.

You're doing the same now, Dann. I feel you're conf biasing.

[Auro]

Also what the hell is my play here, especially if I'm scum and Dong is town? Dong's only attacking me more every time he posts, doesn't look like I'll convince him. I have zero hopes of Cheeky realizing I'm town. FF is high and thinks I'm scum. You think I have any hopes of convincing any of them?

[Auro]

It's a possible pairing. We just town read you individually, so we always clear that pairing by lynching Hop.

Well not exactly pushed that solve but you said it's possible and that would eliminate it.
You're saying the same thing right now, that Auro Dong is a possible pairing, you townread me individually, implying a Dong flip would clear that pairing.

[Auro]

Think backwards. If you townread me individually, then Dong really has no candidate partners. FF is the least viable one.

And Auro paranoia is unnecessary when I'm likely going to flip, btw.

[Auro]

WF gambit's useless when people want to lynch your partner anyway.
Gobbles' preferred lynch is Dong.
This auto invalidates a GobDong solve.

[Auro]

I am here. I am ready to vote Dong. I think everyone has said their piece

If it isn't you and Dong, then it is Dong + Dann in my mind.

Doesn't look partnery.

[Auro]

Squawk all you want about Auro-Dong, my flip will prove that impossible. Then you're going to hop on Dann-Dong or FF-Dong.
I'm going to set things up so you can't in LyLo.

[Auro]

Mod said scum have daytalk, so hm

[Auro]

EC brought something up about this post, Ank and I ended up agreeing. Basically, Gobble does not put partner!nsg in the bottom reads spot and then vote partner!dong because that's obviously going to draw attention. I think this completely strikes dong/gobble as a team which was something I was considering earlier this day phase.

Dann, why ask about Dong/Gobble as a team if you striked them off previously?