TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[innocentvillager]

don't townread jjh either but for some reason people think he's town?

[innocentvillager]

no please not on day 1

[innocentvillager]

i will vig you all

[innocentvillager]

fmpov the reasons why you guys are voting lld pls correct me if im mistaken

-she is good at scum
-townreads on her are undeserved
-she's mean
-she hasn't died yet

the third choice is so far the most convincing point anyways good night i might not be here for the next 24 hours

tbh i think the 4th reason is the most convincing point for me

VOTE: LLD

[innocentvillager]

yes

[innocentvillager]

ill take pissing in the wind

and i knew you would finally come around on me! i can't keep up this kind of posting as scum

and do i feel bad that my towngame and scumgame are so polarized so it's obvious when alignment i am? ehhh i maybe a tiny bit but it's not like i throw when i roll scum and i don't really care that i suck at being a manipulative liar so meh

just know that my LLD vote is s u b j e c t t o c h a n g e

[innocentvillager]

now if only i could divine your alignment dgb

tbf tho, my vote back on LLD is town!indicative for me now but wasn't before? why is that, i parked on LLD for a while before and honestly i don't have strong conviction lld is scum and could definitely change it if someone convincingly yells at me to

[innocentvillager]

Biggest SR at this stage is probably IV, based on gut mostly.

hello i miss your predecessor already

[innocentvillager]

innocentvillager - still demotivated, but healthy vote micturition.

im not really demotivated but i think i see why you think that

ive kind of come to peace with the idea that my d1 reads are just ass, especially in a big game

in LN 230 i had loltownbinned ABR, Gamma, and Taylor to a lesser extent on D1 (tbf my higher tier townreads were all correct) but i don't have any higher tier townreads except mastina this game (who like, honestly, i could totally be wrong on? lol)

and yeah last game i had 1 scum in each of my 4 tiers so might as well have flipped a coin for reads

im kind of just chilling and vibing with the thread and seeing which way the wind blows so i can piss there, y'know

[innocentvillager]

tw is ~scary player~ for scum to play against

oh my god this is unbelievably true

[innocentvillager]

the worst has requested replacement; searching for a replacement.

VOTE: the worst

[innocentvillager]

is that on the premise that the replace out is AI?

i don't believe we're allowed to discuss the AI-ness of a replace-out

[innocentvillager]

by not saying anything you are saying something

-okapoka the philospher

lol

but tbf im not allowed to say "no, I don't believe the replace-out is AI" or "yes, I believe the replace-out is AI" so regardless of which one I believe I would probably give the same reply above

okay no more talking about it for me lol

[innocentvillager]

i don't townread Titus i would vote there

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Titus teehee

[innocentvillager]

townbeard

hey ive voted for dunnstral and worsty at various points

titus, here are my thoughts on you and your solve:

you seem more like blanket assertion-y this game than some of your other towngames. do you feel confident that you have a good grasp of what's going on this game and that your theory is right? The sense that I get is that I have to imagine a lot of things to believe that you are correct this game; e.g. I have to believe

*LLD, hercule are both town (plausible)
*mastina is scum using IIoA desperately pushing an agenda to fan a TvT (ehhhhhh idk) because
*partners are inactives/more sideline-y like Dunnstral, A50, the worst (okay maybeeee on these 3, could be 1-2 scum in here ig), innocentvillager (wrong)

hmmm. It's not as much as I thought when I was writing it out but it still feels like you have a lot of empty confidence on multiple theories that sort of falls apart if any of them are kind of false

like, I remember when I was reading through your stuff on MC in Open 802, that was transparently someone trying to solve and I was pretty swayed by your case (whether you were WW or town I wasn't sure, but that's besides the point)

im not sure if i have a question in there, but wanted to let you know where I'm at and if you have thoughts ig

[innocentvillager]

I don't really get why people focus on reputation so much for this kind of thing tbh

thank you

[innocentvillager]

Page 39.

Mastina
Danflorr.
Hopkirk.
LLD.
DGB
A50
JJH
Agar
Ythan
Hercule
Oka

Aside: Dunnstrall: Seems different, more communicative. Can't put a finger on an agenda though, so just null.

These are just initial impressions, not from team. I should be caught up by tomorrow.

wheeeeee hi bell!

[innocentvillager]

hmmm. It's not as much as I thought when I was writing it out but it still feels like you have a lot of empty confidence on multiple theories that sort of falls apart if any of them are kind of false

If something does go wrong, I'll reasses. Right now, I have my theory of the game I stand by.

A town Titus does not say this, by the way.

y not?

[innocentvillager]

Aside: Dunnstrall: Seems different, more communicative. Can't put a finger on an agenda though, so just null.

if you're thinking about a game like Newbie 2017 yeah best throw out all your Dunn meta out the window. Apparently he has games that he tries in (like this one) and games he doesn't really invest in (like Newbie 2017) for whatever reason

my teammate Gypyx thinks Dunnstral is town so im laying off him for now but i still find it kind of hard to read high-effort Dunnstral

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: ythan
VOTE: dgb
VOTE: titus

Maybe. How is Ythan different from last game/ will they ever be readable?
Why do so many people townread dgb?

ythan cared about something last game

You're right

Ythan, do you have reads?

Ythan
Dun
Cephrir
Luca
Jjh
Mastina
Winter
Dan
Hopkirk
Titus
Xtoxm
Drip
Innocent
AGar
Almost
Lady
Oka

Something like that. Many adjacent positions are somewhat equivalent especially toward the middle.

Worst I'm unclear on, I have plans to settle that slot into the list somewhere some time since it's relevant.

this is kind of a spicy readslist? at the very least if he's faking, it's probably almost all his own intentional fake content and not recycled material/coached

i don't know if i like Oka's Ythan push, seems kind of weirdly fixated on the fact that Ythan intentionally "lied" about trolling last game and I don't really see scum motivation to do that

[innocentvillager]

gypyx isn't following the game so he has a dunnstral read because i specifically asked him for it

i will ask him what he thinks of you

[innocentvillager]

Ignoring the previous, that you had asked to be burden of proficiency'd, and that you said Xtoxm/DGB/hercule cannot all be town. So if Xtoxm/DGB/hercule were all revealed to be town after you said they weren't, and after you said to burden of proficiency you...it would significantly increase the odds that you're scum.

Mastina is literally saying, that when I say "if those 3 flip town" I am implying I think they are all not town.

ive read this a couple times and i am still confused

in isolation mastina's bolded quote there makes sense to me? you said the 3 cannot all be town, so if they all flip town, you were wrong, so by BoP you're very likely to be scum, that's what she's saying right?

i doubt it's an intentional misrep from mastina even if she is scum and you feel she misrepped you?

pedit: what do you want me to answer?

[innocentvillager]

LLD, im paraphrasing here but Gypyx doesn't feel confident reading you just from that one game and he didn't really read much of your posting in TENET anyway, plus he knows you're recognized as good scum

he told me before the first LN game that he felt decent about reading A50 and Dunnstral, so that's why I specifically asked him for his Dunnstral and A50 reads at various points both games

[innocentvillager]

but he's gonna try and read you anyway at some point he says

[innocentvillager]

imagine seeing a flip in the team mafia large normal

it's almost here (like 3.5 days ish i believe)! we should probably get moving soon

[innocentvillager]

I wish I could throw this game and start day one again

Are you listening scum

loud and clear, let me just ask my buddies if they’re okay with it

[innocentvillager]

if it were up to me I would but unfortunately one of them just said no

[innocentvillager]

luca you still hard SRing me?

[innocentvillager]

Biggest SR at this stage is probably IV, based on gut mostly.

i conflated big with hard, not the first time ive done that

[innocentvillager]

fair points

This, and the posts prior where you seemed to be defending my slot, but which culminates with fence-sitting felt a little performative (a new word I learned). It's exactly the sort of thing I could see scum doing to look good/productive while not really committing themselves or doing anything significant.

i will say that's just me

i have been kind of just throwing my vote around and seeing what sticks particularly in early game and i tend not to be super confident on reads in general which manifests as fencesitting

i probably do stuff like this as scum to emulate town!me and get townread too tho so idk

And here you vote my slot while seeming to say you think it's more likely it's Town, but it's

possible

my slot could be scum?

It's as though you've allowed yourself to be talked into the vote, in order to look as though you're being fair and open minded about it.

sure, it's possible id do that as scum for the reason you mentioned, finding an excuse to vote hercule (or just do *anything*)

or maybe im town who didn't/doesn't have strong reads, actually is being open about his thought process, and was just interested in applying pressure to hercule to see what he would do

i guess it's hard to say which one it is in isolation but i can see why this is pinging you

[innocentvillager]

Says they're hard scum reading IV but also, they always scum read IV.

not surprised lol

i did try very hard to emulate my town meta that one game i played with her

bell do you not have a read on me? lol

[innocentvillager]

look iv you can look at last game yourself and compare notes

i have consulted math multiple times, you can read my iso, anytime i mention my team its mathblade mostly and some pooky. we ended up coming to terms with the idea that we should just ride the lld train out, obviously that's not how today has played out. ive asked him about titus and he told me the activity is NAI so yeah. im not going to post that. really dont know why you are bringing my team into this so much, i kept a lot of my team reads and thoughts private last game as well and leaked them out only when necessary. you didn't even get my team's full reads of last game until start of this game.

huh are you talking to me...? what lol

[innocentvillager]

nice fence sit, i like it

[innocentvillager]

hmmm. It's not as much as I thought when I was writing it out but it still feels like you have a lot of empty confidence on multiple theories that sort of falls apart if any of them are kind of false

If something does go wrong, I'll reasses. Right now, I have my theory of the game I stand by.

A town Titus does not say this, by the way.

y not?

Basically it boils down to Titus's approach to the game. Titus will stand by her theories, but her theories are subject to the evidence; they can and will shift if she is given strong reason to reassess. Them only shifting if "something goes wrong" implies a level of confirmation bias that Titus as town wouldn't have, basically.

i actually kind of like this as a reason for scum!Titus. it's a bit subtle (which i think is actually good) but the fact that she wrote "if something goes wrong" does seem to reflect a more stubborn mindset than an uninformed townie would have, even someone like Titus who is constantly re-evaluating and reassessing

you could definitely say that this is being pedantic and semantical, but idk, I don't think I would really use the wording "if something goes wrong" if im town though and the more likely explanation is that it's a mindset slip if she's scum, where she's planning to fake re-evaluate when flips/claims happen

i think people should take a closer look at Titus if they haven't, id like to hear why if people are townreading here

[innocentvillager]

This vote seems opportunistic to me, given the wagon on tw at the time and that you had barely mentioned his slot before this.

the worst has requested replacement; searching for a replacement.

VOTE: the worst

Although you soon jump back off, which redeems it a bit I guess.

VOTE: Titus teehee

I still don't really understand the purpose of tw vote.

this was mostly just pressuring a null no-content slot so that they would start posting some content on replace-in. worsty and i have some history and im a bit sad I didn't get to play this game with him especially if he's town

[innocentvillager]

if oka is scum he is making an move onto town!Ythan EoD on purpose (this is probably not SvS given proximity to deadline and Ythan has high scramble compromise-wagon potential), probably to divert the wagon away from someone else. This could be scum!LLD (most likely), scum!Bell, scum!DGB, or scum!Titus, that's basically it imo. if I was scum!Oka and most of the major wagons were on town I would not feel the need to fake frustration about the gamestate and stick my neck onto a low content townie push.

[innocentvillager]

lolsolve rn is something like {Titus, dunnstral, Cephrir, AGar} don't @ me

[innocentvillager]

lolsolve rn is something like {Titus, dunnstral, Cephrir, AGar} don't @ me

someone let me know if they wanna towncase any of these 4

ive briefly talked about Titus

i get heebie jeebies from AGar's ISO this game (to be fair i don't think I've ever townread this slot and I've only played with with him twice and he was town both times? but idk, I explicitly feel a little worse about him this time than the previous times?)

I know Gypyx townleans Dunnstral but like... idk im getting a survivalistic postury vibe from him

Cephrir is superficially different but is anything outside his scumrange here? mehhh

[innocentvillager]

don't ask why im trying to solve the game on D1 in a Large Normal, im going a little crazy rn after organizing my readslists a little more.

[innocentvillager]

townleaning bell now

bell what do you think of the 4 slots i mentioned?

[innocentvillager]

I also now think Bell is scum

It's a culmination of TW being low hanging fruit and then replacing, and Bell being kind of weird here

i am meh on this Bell scum take tbh

[innocentvillager]

you have one of the most active and supportive teams, and this is the sum total of their comments in 90 pages?

also why is the lack of teammate content scum!indicative especially when worsty didn't put out content and is kind of scumread? to me, at

the worst

it's null and honestly possibly town!indicative

[innocentvillager]

It's constantly people who are misrepresenting points in big long posts and when called on it make more big long posts

and then people rushing to their defense being like "they're doing misreps, but is it really scum?"

in general this is a fair criticism but i believe everyone is guilty of this to some degree. the best we can do is try to minimize it. it's harder to not just go "they are misrepping this post so they are scum intentionally doing it" but it still doesn't mean they are scum

[innocentvillager]

this game is a bunch of players who all fiercely scum read each other for reasons I can't quite seem to grasp

this describes my thoughts exactly

[innocentvillager]

lolsolve rn is something like {Titus, dunnstral, Cephrir, AGar} don't @ me

someone let me know if they wanna towncase any of these 4

ive briefly talked about Titus

i get heebie jeebies from AGar's ISO this game (to be fair i don't think I've ever townread this slot and I've only played with with him twice and he was town both times? but idk, I explicitly feel a little worse about him this time than the previous times?)

I know Gypyx townleans Dunnstral but like... idk im getting a survivalistic postury vibe from him

Cephrir is superficially different but is anything outside his scumrange here? mehhh

cephrir is my pocket super town read this game. Is there anything about him that has specifically worried you or is this just PoE + not seeing anything special?

AGar I'd be interested in specifics as well.

cephrir is not getting wagoned today and I don’t have any real reason to SL them so I don’t feel it’s productive to look into him or discuss him with deadline looming, we can revisit. If you strong TR him that’s cool, I’m probably wrong on him then

I will look into agar because I think think there were specific things that felt weird to me (but ugh, definitely could be conflating playstyle with My historical record)

[innocentvillager]

i will say I’m pretty lukewarm about this Ythan wagon but if I can’t come up with good reasoning for any other alternatives I Will sheep it

[innocentvillager]

AGar is more interesting to me because there are a lot of things in his posting that either feel weird or I disagree with. But I felt that last game too and I'm not sure any of it is genuinely scummy?

yes this is definitely giving me pause on agar

how did you feel about the Titus wagon? you were briefly on it

[innocentvillager]

to be clear when I was lolsolving last night I was kind on some adrenaline rush from something exciting that just finished before so maybe that’s partly why I tried to emotional-solve a scumteam

I still think those 4 are near the bottom of my reads? (as in maybe like just under null, with Cephrir, Dunnstral being basically null) but I’m really not so sure after looking at this with a clearer mind

[innocentvillager]

if LLD is town I think there’s a good chance some scum are TMI-TRing her and that kind of lead to some Cephrir/AGar pocket equity (oh look, of the 4 low content slots LLD was asked to give thoughts on, she townread Titus and AGar and both of them called LLD town at that point)

circumstantial ikik

[innocentvillager]

if LLD is town I think there’s a good chance some scum are TMI-TRing her and that kind of lead to some Cephrir/AGar pocket equity (oh look, of the 4 low content slots LLD was asked to give thoughts on, she townread Titus and AGar and both of them called LLD town at that point)

circumstantial ikik

brb gonna spend all my energy pocketing someone who's going to be dead today

deep value

I am going to be dead today?

Really?

yeah...Cephrir? isn't the Ythan compromise-wagon like, rising faster than the stale LLD wagon and you're voting Ythan? and at no point did we ever even get LLD into claiming range? kind of a strange defense

[innocentvillager]

if Flanndor is scum im going to be so upset i have been nodding at his posts in general but on these last couple pages specifically they just strike the heart

[innocentvillager]

if Flanndor is scum im going to be so upset i have been nodding at his posts in general but on these last couple pages specifically they just strike the heart

If you agree with Dann this much

Would you vote Ythan right now

as ive said i will sheep it if i can't think of good reasoning for any alternatives i prefer

my vote is spiritually on Ythan even though i prefer Dannflor's other scum!candidate, Titus

i mean, the best "case" ive seen on Ythan is that he's downplaying how much he tried in the previous game? some people are calling it lying? and lying is scummy so ythan == scum?? i don't have any reason to townread him either

if anyone on the Ythan wagon wants it for anything other than just a compromise elimination to reset and try again tomorrow, id be curious. my biggest fear is that Ythan will flip town with little information about the wagonees, someone helpful like Dannflor will be the NK and we will be in an objectively worse spot tomorrow

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Ythan

actually you're totally right, this is more useful atm. and there is still some time to back out of Ythan if he starts townspewing and there might not be later.

[innocentvillager]

ythan why should we be seeing you as town? from my perspective you're the compromise elim who hasn't done much this game and people are tired and want to start over tomorrow

help us understand what is going on in your brilliant mind

[innocentvillager]

which lurker(s)?

how do you feel about ythan

my read is essentially: ythan who?
perma-null basically

something something scum most often lands in the exact center point of people's reads lists

scum read as null a lot more often as town and scum

idk I just can't shake the feeling that there was actual opinions from ythan last game to read him off of and this game feels like he's forcing himself to do anything

yes but i feel like this is more true when scum are reasonably active (aka actively posting content)? lurker-null is kind of different and more NAI imo

although, i suppose you could argue that Ythan is somewhere in-between

to play some devil's advocate i guess:

idk part of me is going "is... this... really Ythan's scumgame?" low-effort no-cares okay compromise elim me if y'all want y'all suck? and this is his favorite alignment? whereas i could potentially see town!Ythan being genuinely tired of how long this game has dragged out for and not really caring

i strongly get the vibe that Ythan is "flying solo" here, especially with that readslist and overall antagonistic tone. for most players i feel like that's a towntell but it might be NAI for Ythan especially since we saw some of it last game

[innocentvillager]

lol ik my point is that you could be emulating what we all just saw as your towngame but people like dannflor and oka caught some more subtle differences. that's the scum!Ythan theory at least

can you answer this? why are we all terrible for wagoning you

ythan why should we be seeing you as town? from my perspective you're the compromise elim who hasn't done much this game and people are tired and want to start over tomorrow

help us understand what is going on in your brilliant mind

[innocentvillager]

whereas i could potentially see town!Ythan being genuinely tired of how long this game has dragged out for and not really caring

ythan am i right that this is kind of your headspace rn?

[innocentvillager]

"Why should I think you're town" is a stupid question to ask Anna a stupid question to answer.

because when you called us all terrible for voting you, i interpreted that with the implicit assumption that it's because we should be able to recognize that you're town

so i was just why you think we should be able to recognize that you're town

[innocentvillager]

whereas i could potentially see town!Ythan being genuinely tired of how long this game has dragged out for and not really caring

ythan am i right that this is kind of your headspace rn?

Why would you even feed me this and then ask ME if it's correct are you even trying??

well if you're scum this is probably the angle you have been going for all game? there could be other headspaces that you're in/trying to fake instead of the one that i pulled out of my ass? idk exactly what i want with a question when i ask it every time but usually it's to get some sort of response and try and interpret that

[innocentvillager]

i just think you are kind of hard to read/not very transparent (fine) but id love to be able to sort you and not just lol!eliminate you because we can't find a better alternative

[innocentvillager]

i explained why i asked the "why should we think you're town" question

for the other one, can you just talk to us about your feelings/headspace more then even if it's calling everyone bad and complaining about my questions (that's fine)

i just feel like, the more content you have, the less scum can just hide behind your wagon as a compromise wagon and will actually have to commit to a stance on you

[innocentvillager]

fine, ill admit im not the best at asking questions

i just want a bit more from you

so instead of answering "why should we think you are town", can you just answer why you posted this:

Please end me you're all terrible

[innocentvillager]

what's idiotic about it?

[innocentvillager]

im going through your iso and trying to figure out specifically why you are "tired of this idiotic game", like what specifically i guess, and i am not really succeeding

im willing to look like the idiot in this back and forth but please i just want... something from you :/ not sure what else to say

[innocentvillager]

thank you ythan

[innocentvillager]

like ive said i just wanted more content from you, im not the best with words

and i do feel like i got something out of our interaction even if it seems pointless to you! it does feel like a genuine blowup from you, and i almost feel bad because i was kind of hoping you would if i kept prodding you. question is if it's town!indicative or not? probably is? ill have to think a bit more but at least it's out there

in the meanwhile if there's any other content you'd like to provide because my questions are bad fire away, or not, whatever you want

[innocentvillager]

It seems plausible in retrospect that you were reaction fishing and not asking those questions for their own sake.

well, it was partly both...

pedit: lool

[innocentvillager]

meh, I get that ceph, but like I’d still rather hit a scum on D1 first and foremost regardless

if we think Ythans reaction is townie id still rather try and hit someone else

there’s obviously some balance though

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Titus

[innocentvillager]

A town Titus does not say this, by the way.

Mastina asserts that I would never reasses my reads if proven wrong. That's baseless shade as every player does that. Saying town Titus would never reasses needs proof because it's an outright lie.

that is not at all what she said, this is a strawman

she said "town!Titus doesn't say *that*", not "town!Titus doesn't reassess her reads when proven wrong"

i engaged on mastina to further understand why and she replied here:

Basically it boils down to Titus's approach to the game. Titus will stand by her theories, but her theories are subject to the evidence; they can and will shift if she is given strong reason to reassess. Them only shifting if "something goes wrong" implies a level of confirmation bias that Titus as town wouldn't have, basically.

and i followed up with my agreement on this issue here

i actually kind of like this as a reason for scum!Titus. it's a bit subtle (which i think is actually good) but the fact that she wrote "if something goes wrong" does seem to reflect a more stubborn mindset than an uninformed townie would have, even someone like Titus who is constantly re-evaluating and reassessing

you could definitely say that this is being pedantic and semantical, but idk, I don't think I would really use the wording "if something goes wrong" if im town though and the more likely explanation is that it's a mindset slip if she's scum, where she's planning to fake re-evaluate when flips/claims happen

i think people should take a closer look at Titus if they haven't, id like to hear why if people are townreading here

[innocentvillager]

IV - in what world is evidence that runs counter to what you have asserted thus far not "things going wrong"?

hmm, at the time i interpreted "things going wrong" as very strong wording. it's also possible the way mastina framed it at the time in 2291 i felt like it was very strong (e.g. a big claim, flips, etc. is what come to mind for me); as a town player I will reassess and bounce around even if none of those happen.

And I believe town!Titus is that kind of player too from my limited experience with her. Her processes felt more substantiated in games I remember with her whereas here it does feel a bit more mechanical/blanket-assertiony without as much reasoning. I am honestly kind of at a loss for her confidence level on what's happening in this gamestate for the amount of content she's put out, especially coming from a player who tends in excel more in the lategame. If this is some sort of a style-change then maybe that would nullify this read of her a bit, idk. In a confirmation-biased way it almost feels like she's planning on parking her solve for now and setting up for her theory to be wrong, or justification to continue pushing her theory (which one would obviously depend on if the flip was consistent with her "theory" or not)

I get that mastina is not popular for some of you all this game but I think scum are going to double down on blanket-discrediting mastina and that's what I'm seeing from Titus and it's giving me a weird vibe

I'm also just not seeing the whole "mastina is spamming and manipulating the gamestate so she's scum!" thing at all that I believe Titus is proposing

I could be wrong on any of those fronts for sure but that's probably the crux of my gut-scumlean on her rn

[innocentvillager]

I get that mastina is not popular for some of you all this game but I think scum are going to double down on blanket-discrediting mastina and that's what I'm seeing from Titus and it's giving me a weird vibe

I think you're putting too much faith into mastina and blindly following her off of a cliff.

i'd like to think im not "blindly" following her and I wrote a lot of my own reasoning for why my gut is on Titus? i'm trying to evaluate the ideas in the thread, i don't really care who it came from

[innocentvillager]

he's not really doing anything but AtE, like complaining about day length and then voting me, criticizing iv's quixotic attempt to reach out for him, i mean like cmon

do you think it's a genuine blowup from scum!Ythan or a fake blowup from scum!Ythan?

[innocentvillager]

accrual clown

oh no how did cephrir just jump to the top of my reads

[innocentvillager]

dgb, iv and winter

i don't think im that different this game apart from early posting and the occasional scumclaim

[innocentvillager]

Vote Count 1.19

Ythan

(8):

OkaPoka

, Luca Blight, Dannflor, Cephrir,

Lady Lambdadelta, Titus, AGar

, innocentvillager

Lady Lambdadelta

(5): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Ythan, jjh927

DrippingGoofball

(2): Dunnstral, Bell

Bell

(1): Winter Flakes

AGar

(1): Hopkirk

Not Voting

(1): Almost50

My problem with the Ythan wagon: who're his scumbuddies?

If you believe that the DGB/Xtoxm/mastina core is all town, who's left to be Ythan's scumbuddies?
jjh? I townread him pretty strongly.
Dunnstral? Plausible except I townread him.
Bell? Plausible I suppose.
Winter Flakes? Plausible but I townread him.
Hopkirk? Absolutely not, he's locktown.
Almost50? Almost certainly not, as he's strongly town.

For the Ythan wagon to be pure or mostly pure tho, you have to believe 2-3 of those names above are scum.

Sure, 1 of them is possible, albeit I'd argue not very probable, with 'plausible' being the best for some.
But 2? Far less likely.
3? Almost certainly not.

So the Ythan wagon reeks of having at least one, if not multiple, scum on it.

It should say something that

literally all four of my scumreads

are on the wagon.
Three of them having joined back to back to back with the wagon basically forming overnight.

If y'all don't realize the issue with that, you're basically blind and/or delusional.

While Ythan could be scum (I get it, I really do, I'm right there with you with seeing the scum aspects of his play), the fact that I scumread literally half of the people on the wagon makes me doubt he'll actually flip scum. And if he does, he was heavily bussed.

assuming your reads as fact and then writing this unfortunately doesn't do much for us, but if it helps you get thoughts out and organized that's great

For cephrir yeah,
too many posts 'not giving a shit because I rolled town this game'
and I hate mastina posting posts.

It just feels like someone grasping at something to talk about and deciding to present themselves a certain way.

I'm not really vibing with this.

I get what you're saying, but it feels like an insignificant thing to push an elim for at this stage. Ceph's posting has generally felt Townie to me.

@Bell I am willing to reconsider ceph another day but today is not the day to wagon Cephrir. This isn't really strong enough imo bc he can do all this as town too (although, tbf that IS what pinged me initially too), but more importantly not many people will want to join this late

The way Innocent Villager is treating me is weird. I thought they were fine but writing this out I think most of their posting is nullish and they deserve more scrutiny.

elaborate about my "weird" treatment of you? is it just the fact that you're in my PoE and im very unsure on you?

[innocentvillager]

i want to address oka's Ythan push because I think it is totally reasonable and I think it gives me more confidence in my Oka townlean, and I think I am slightly more okay with wagoning Ythan after writing this response but I would do so begrudgingly. on another note, we really have to start moving if we want a claim and enough time to potentially switch onto someone else

don't see why the reaction to ythan's AtE spew is to wagon titus, if anything its time to bag and tag ythan. he's not really doing anything but AtE, like complaining about day length and then voting me, criticizing iv's quixotic attempt to reach out for him, i mean like cmon

he's just whining and whining and why is this scummy?

he's whining and not doing anything about it

it's not helpful, ill give you that, but... is it scum? i'm not expecting a player with Ythan's personality to be helpful when being compromise lol-wagoned at this point as either alignment

, honestly i think he's just flailing and minimzing damage by minimizing possible associatives.

scum!Ythan AtE flailing could absolutely be a thing. But that's all it would be imo, I don't really buy the minimizing possible associatives part because a) I don't think he is that invested in his future scumteam's wincon given his posting b) what would anything he posts on other people really tell us other than more wifom at this stage, and do you really think Ythan would be concerned about something like that?

there isn't any attempt to say this is who i townread and this is who i scumread here are some reasons, no i dislike x because y for reasons z, it's just vague general angryposts that mean nothing

insert same not helpful =/= scum post here

also i like titus and would rather her see lylo than ythan and titus is more likely to eat a bullet if she's town eventually so there is that argument if you are into that

maybe but like, there's a lot of suspicion on Titus and lylo afaik is like a little too far away for me to care rn about what happens then

this is also a reason to leave like every PR claim alone (bad blanket strategy, imo), but even then I'd rather leave alone a PR than a nebulous player who could be a strong town player later

one more try

ythan clearly wants to give off the sense that he's done with this game/phase

so if he wants to end this day why is he voting me? leaving an LLD wagon to start anew on me is not how you end this day.

if he's tired with this phase why is he being such pos about answering questions or engaging with anyone, clearly he has enough willpower to sarcastically respond to any posts directed his way, if you're just tired and don't want to read or do anything, you'd probably hit that lurk button and disappear. its just insults man. all the way down. he's got no right to reject questions because he literally does not have enough content, questions are shit because there isn't much to ask. look at his iso

i think this is your strongest point but im not sure it sways me over the edge

regarding the vote, that is a little weird? maybe he's just emotionally throwing it around and really doesn't care where it is? i would call this +"Ythan isn't actually tired of this game" equity

regarding why he's actively in thread and throwing around one-liner insults at people who try to engage him despite being "tired", i can kind of see that from a town!perspective too? like, i feel like i could totally be tired with a game but still be around and hyperpost/shitpost/do whatever i want, etc, just don't expect any actual substantive efforting or reading from me. Ythan is kind of doing that, except replace shitpost with sarcastic angeryposting or whatever you wanna call it lol. i don't need willpower to shitpost, he doesn't need willpower to sarcastic-post.

anyways put 2 and 2 together and you realize that he's either scum just flailing around, minimizing associatives by not engaging with this game meaningful or town that's happening to make himself unreadable. am i hedging my bets? yes

agree here but take out the "minimizing associatives" part and i do think he is gradually, maybe, getting more readable

is his blowup genuine or false? i don't know enough about ythan to answer that and tbh i dont care

lol this kind of made me TL you more but i do feel like this kind of an important distinction to make though?

and now that I think about it more, I think you are kind of implicitly saying his blowup is false when you argue that Ythan is not "purely tired of this game". Like, imagine if you thought his blowup was genuine? which would imply Ythan is sick and tired of this game? which would also kind of nullify most of the other points you made about him?

like i think there are a few distinct possibilities:

1) scum!Ythan is lolcatting and AtE shitting for fun,

blowup was fake

2) scum!Ythan is very strategically AtEing in order to shake off the wagon,

blowup was fake

3) scum!Ythan is tired of this game, and just wants it to end and so he's spewing whatever he wants,

blowup was real

4) town!Ythan is tired of this game,

blowup was real

if this isn't really an accurate framing of the possibilities feel free to let me know

based on your arguments, i feel like you think it's either 1 or 2, if you thought 3 was a possibility it would have nullified some of the points you tried to make about scum!Ythan being tired of this game

i think the blowup was real, so i think it's more likely to be 3 or 4

and for the comparison to last game, he had a viewpoint he was trying to push and just being incredibly obtuse about it. his viewpoint being xtoxm = town. but the key is the obtuseness is what pissed me off.

he's not being obtuse this game, he's actively being an ass for the sake of being an ass because last game he was an ass so he can still be an ass

bag n tag please

this is fair and i believe the reason dannflor initially pushed him

different from previous towngame =/= scum though (maybe it's slightly scum-indicative? but maybe not??) and it is plausible under the narrative that Ythan has stopped caring as this game has dragged on and is apathetic town

[innocentvillager]

if LLD is town I think there’s a good chance some scum are TMI-TRing her and that kind of lead to some Cephrir/AGar pocket equity (oh look, of the 4 low content slots LLD was asked to give thoughts on, she townread Titus and AGar and both of them called LLD town at that point)

circumstantial ikik

brb gonna spend all my energy pocketing someone who's going to be dead today

deep value

I am going to be dead today?

Really?

yeah...Cephrir? isn't the Ythan compromise-wagon like, rising faster than the stale LLD wagon and you're voting Ythan? and at no point did we ever even get LLD into claiming range? kind of a strange defense

ceph can you address this when you get a chance? don't want to detour too much but i feel like this shouldn't take long

[innocentvillager]

@DGB

can you ask SirCakez to give his take on AGar?

[innocentvillager]

i think you minimize associatives as scum if u don't care
like as scum if you die its entirely your fault, even if you don't care, at the very least you'd cut your losses and eat the flip without sabotaging your teammates game. its just bad form to sabotage your teammates, so if you don't have a real gameplan to get out you might as well make your flip as minimal in impact as possible

plus easiest way out is to minimize associatives, wifom game is a dangerous game because there is the possibility wifom can be theoretically read into. just minimizing interactions to a few people and doing nothing proactive is the easy and safe play for scum, especially if you don't want to effort into trying to deepwolf etc.

okay sure, i can accept that this is a possibility. for me it's not really an additional point in his favor, just like, an afterthought to this scum!Ythan theory

sure not helpful =/= scum. i can concede that. but he's being annoying about it and honestly with how he's just labelling others, he thinks we are bad for even daring to interact with him when he's done nothing proactive? like cmon. this isn't assassins in the palace.

him voting me is meant to be emotional i agree. it doesn't line up with his stated desires.

the town perspective of him angry posting while having done nothing is the perspective of him just wanting to make this game not fun. in which case i hedge my bets anyways and bye.

i feel

maybe you can analyze whether ythan's blowup is genuine or not. im just not going to, its really not worth it and ive been burned for it. i literally do not know enough about ythan to go speculate on that. is it important? sure. but im not going to go there because i don't know and the punishment for being wrong on that is a lot more than the reward.

okay, we can drop the whole blowup thing specifically. do you agree with my 4 main scenarios though minus the blowup part? for me personally, i just like to lay out all the different possibilities so it's more clear to me which ythan narrative we are arguing for or against. but if you don't vibe with this kind of thought process, that's fine

im just arguing that if ythan is tired of the game as town, he wouldn't have still been engaged to this game and wouldn't have voted me either. he's obviously engaged to this game, he's being super AtE about it when he's done nothing important. /shrug it doesn't line up

anyways ythan wants us to think he doesn't care but he clearly does. he's worse than the people who don't do anything, he's actively resisting the idea of doing anything and is being a prick about it. like nothing about it makes sense, at this point why are you playing mafia. nobody forced you to play. this is a game.

and yes townies don't make sense on happenstance but this is just actively being ???????. like you want to not make sense on purpose. i think that's scum indicative.

okay i think this is the part i want to solidify a little bit more

your argument is:

(1) ythan voted you, and is actively posting/being antagonistic
(2) ythan is obviously engaged [lately, since wagon]
(3) ythan cares about this game
(4a) ythan is not tired of this game [which means his "blowup" was fake, but that's not important anymore]
(4b) ythan has been deliberately lying about not caring about the game
(5) ythan is not town

--------------------------

(1) is pretty objectively truly imo
(1) => (2) I think (2) reasonably follows from (1).
(2) => (3) This I don't know I necessarily agree with. Specifically the point I made here would be my response (what did you think of that?)

regarding why he's actively in thread and throwing around one-liner insults at people who try to engage him despite being "tired", i can kind of see that from a town!perspective too? like, i feel like i could totally be tired with a game but still be around and hyperpost/shitpost/do whatever i want, etc, just don't expect any actual substantive efforting or reading from me. Ythan is kind of doing that, except replace shitpost with sarcastic angeryposting or whatever you wanna call it lol. i don't need willpower to shitpost, he doesn't need willpower to sarcastic-post.

(3) => (4a) i guess it depends on when Ythan cared? i can buy that Ythan cared less and less over time and at this point he doesn't care. but sure I can mostly accept this one
(3) => (4b) ehhh, i can still see a town!Ythan world where he wants to come off as this 5d genius who's just trolling and playing us all for fools and is denying that he ever cared when there is a part of him that does. not gonna psychoanalyze too much but it's possible this is mostly true.
(4a) => (5) think this clearly follows
(4b) => (5) think this clearly follows

i think if you can convince me of either (4a) or (4b) im all set to vote Ythan, but right now the main thing stopping me is (2) => (3) and a little bit of (3) => (4a) or (4b)

[innocentvillager]

JJ why the switch off Titus and onto LLD?

[innocentvillager]

I guess titus isn’t happening today unless I case her

I don’t know if I have the energy to either, plus I’m bad at writing cases

meh

[innocentvillager]

idk what to do. We need a yeet and I don’t love either of these wagons

[innocentvillager]

I see what you did there

[innocentvillager]

Ythan tbh I feel like you are caring more lately? loll

[innocentvillager]

Ythan reaching 8 votes (E-2) then collapsing is a bad sign IMHO. If he was Town I think Scum would have been more inclined to at least get him to claim before they moved on.

This only works if you believe the people who voted IV but hopped off were scum tho:

Vote Count 1.19

Ythan

(8): OkaPoka, Luca Blight, Dannflor, Cephrir, Lady Lambdadelta, Titus, AGar, innocentvillager

Vote Count 1.20

Ythan

(5): OkaPoka, Luca Blight, Lady Lambdadelta, Titus, AGar

Do you believe that Dannflor, Cephrir, and/or innocentvillager are scum? Because those are the three who hopped off.

I do not believe that.

[snip]

AGar, I know always read mastina's posts in full because you love them, but I feel like you should address this if you're going suspect the Ythan wagon dissipating

[innocentvillager]

AGar is likely to be town the more i think about it

i am fine removing him from my current PoE

pedit: can you pretend it didn't come from mastina and just address the idea in a vacuum

[innocentvillager]

i deliberately cut out all the opinionated stuff where she assumes her reads are truth to analyze this so that it's literally just the facts of what happened

[innocentvillager]

Ythan's wagon shifting so suddenly to Titus with no resistance and no real actual reasoning other than the vibes brigade restarting their shenanigans should be fucking warning sirens for anyone and everyone.

Ythan's wagon shifting so suddenly to Titus with no resistance and no real actual reasoning other than the vibes brigade restarting their shenanigans should be fucking warning sirens for anyone and everyone.

No resistance? Not sure about that.

But resistance is fake anyway so eh

Resistance was the wrong word, yeah.

But we went from Ythan 8 to Titus 4 in a page with nothing revelatory from Ythan and it was just a naked vote where y'all just seamlessly moved. Big dislike.

are you talking about this? if so, this just feels like restating the same thing

i get that in a vacuum it could be worrying that the flashwagon just died for not reason? but if you don't think any of the people that facilitated the change (me, Cephrir, Dannflor) are null to scum, that's important right?

[innocentvillager]

so to be clear:

-you think the three of us are town
-three townies moved off Ythan and onto Titus
-alarm bells (presumably because scum are manipulating gamestate (??))

pedit: oh okay, are you implying that you townread the 3 of us before, but the quick die-down makes you townread us less (specifically me aorn, because my questioning of you on this feels agenda-y)?

im trying to fill in the blanks here with what you've said so please correct me if anything is wrong

[innocentvillager]

that is an interesting perspective, thanks for responding

i will say, my vote on Ythan was solely a consolidation vote as suggested by LLD to get something out of Ythan anyway, my main intent was to go back to my SL Titus anyway

an aside before i forget

@Luca, DGB

im curious if either of you have impressions about Titus's play here since you both just finished a Large Normal with her (LN 231)?

last thing i think: if you theoretically knew the 3 of us were locktown would it also raise alarm bells for you that Ythan is scum? ik it's a hypothetical but im trying to get a better sense for how you think wagon Ythan and Titus

also by alarm bells you mean this game event makes town!Titus more likely and scum!Ythan more likely, right (and maybe a side of scum!jj more likely)?

[innocentvillager]

get a better sense for how you think wagon Ythan and Titus

*get a better sense for how you think about the wagons on Ythan and Titus

[innocentvillager]

meh

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: dgb I have no more energy to do anything else rn

[innocentvillager]

I Lol townleaned her at one point but I can’t remember why apart from her feeling similar to her towngame one time (LN 230)

the pushes are weird but it’s so weird idk if it comes from scum!dgb

Dgb being very different from last game and agenda-y is like, a very whatever and maybe even NAI reason for me honestly

So yeah, here’s me whining about having to join this wagon but not doing anything about it

[innocentvillager]

i guess will just pray you guys are right and my analysis this game has just been way off and reset tomorrow if this hits scum

[innocentvillager]

i will maybe look at this tmr and actually think about it more I am very tired rn, maybe I’ll just sheep you guys and pretend this game doesn’t exist instead who knows probably wouldn’t be much of a loss anyways

[innocentvillager]

IV - in what world is evidence that runs counter to what you have asserted thus far not "things going wrong"?

hmm, at the time i interpreted "things going wrong" as very strong wording. it's also possible the way mastina framed it at the time in 2291 i felt like it was very strong (e.g. a big claim, flips, etc. is what come to mind for me); as a town player I will reassess and bounce around even if none of those happen.

And I believe town!Titus is that kind of player too from my limited experience with her. Her processes felt more substantiated in games I remember with her whereas here it does feel a bit more mechanical/blanket-assertiony without as much reasoning. I am honestly kind of at a loss for her confidence level on what's happening in this gamestate for the amount of content she's put out, especially coming from a player who tends in excel more in the lategame. If this is some sort of a style-change then maybe that would nullify this read of her a bit, idk. In a confirmation-biased way it almost feels like she's planning on parking her solve for now and setting up for her theory to be wrong, or justification to continue pushing her theory (which one would obviously depend on if the flip was consistent with her "theory" or not)

I get that mastina is not popular for some of you all this game but I think scum are going to double down on blanket-discrediting mastina and that's what I'm seeing from Titus and it's giving me a weird vibe

I'm also just not seeing the whole "mastina is spamming and manipulating the gamestate so she's scum!" thing at all that I believe Titus is proposing

I could be wrong on any of those fronts for sure but that's probably the crux of my gut-scumlean on her rn

Good post, I agree with most of this.

an aside before i forget

@Luca, DGB

im curious if either of you have impressions about Titus's play here since you both just finished a Large Normal with her (LN 231)?

I'm agreeing with her general reads/thoughts a lot more than I did in that game, where I misread her as being scum. Her (imo misplaced) confidence in Mastina being scum seems similar to some of her pushes in the previous game.

wait sorry now i'm a bit confused because it seems like you agreed with some of my reasoning to SL Titus earlier (part of it being I think this is dissimilar to her early towngame)? and here you're saying you're seeing a lot of similarities to her [early?] towngame?

can you describe what you agree with/don't?

[innocentvillager]

i will maybe look at this tmr and actually think about it more

On that note.
I realize it is doing preflip associatives on D1.

But I wanna ask for you to humor me, IV.

If Titus AND LLD were both scum, ignoring individual scumtell indicators, which players do you think would be the players who most strongly have passionately dissuaded us from wagoning those two?

It's not a long list: {OkaPoka, Dannflor, Cephrir} as incredibly vocal + {Agar, Dunnstral} as less vocal. Do you disagree with those five being the strongest opposition to an LLD wagon in particular, with a side of the Titus wagon? (Dannflor and Cephrir less so for Titus, but Oka/AGar moreso given that both Oka and AGar had an INCREDIBLY strong, immediate, negative reaction to the Titus wagon.)

Humoring me, and assuming that Titus and LLD both did indeed flip scum--would you be more on the same page as me in seeing why I think Oka and AGar are incredibly likely to be scum defending their scumbuddies?

Because if we get to later in the game. And players like DGB, Ythan, Bell, Luca Blight, etc., are revealed as town, and LLD and Titus are revealed as scum. Look back at the players who were so strongly steering the game towards eliminating those now-flipped-town and away from the now-flipped scum.

Oka and AGar will top the charts.

That aside from tells on them.

like maybe? even then i doubt both are scum doing essentially the same thing? but yeah preflipping TWO slots as scum is like, wildly idealistic and not something i care about with like 1 day left in D1

and in general to be totally honest i don't find your attitude this EoD super convincing with like, assuming all of your scumreads are scum and presenting all of your analysis that way, it makes you look confbias-tunnelled and imo makes at least me personally, not take you as seriously, because it's just so unlikely that you can actually get like even 3/4 of the whole scumteam on D1. I get that fypov you feel you've essentially found scum and really want us to just all magically align with you but i don't think that's realistic

if you somehow are right, we will probably gradually eliminate your scumreads on later days anyway, there is time for all of us to reassess your theories (but honestly, i don't even know if your scumreads are that correlated)

[innocentvillager]

@Luca, wrt DGB, i think (could be mistaken?) ironically it's things like this that are fueling the dgb case? (specifically 1574 and 1510)

people are complaining about LLD pushing an agenda when it didn't last town game, lol

[innocentvillager]

*DGB not LLD (pushing an agenda)

[innocentvillager]

i think it's kind of a dumb reason tbh but my of my TRs are on that wagon and i don't really want to wagon LLD or case Titus so... meh

im probably just misunderstanding it

[innocentvillager]

essentially, what it boils down to for me is this:

-i want Titus wagoned, I've expressed some reasoning but it's too nebulous and not concrete enough, and I don't want to case her (im lazy, this is no one else's fault)
-so people are resisting this wagon in favor of a dgb wagon basically because she's been too... agenda-y and political this game ??
-i somewhat townlean DGB from tone
-other camp is people who have been statically on LLD most of the game, including people like Titus who i do not townlean
-i somewhat townlean LLD for the wifom wank but again it is wifom wank
-i don't think either of the "cases" are good
-Ythan started actually playing the game and had a townie reaction, so im also somewhat townlean that slot, and that wagon died down
-we need a yeet fucking ASAP
-more of my TLs are on DGB
-guess we go dgb oh well

that's my level of enthusiasm for the gamestate rn

[innocentvillager]

Titus wagon is too unrealistic unless someone that's not named mastina writes a convincing wall on her and I don't think im your guy

if you'd like to be the hero, be my guest

[innocentvillager]

1 day, 3 hours, 47 minutes

like we're not going from 0 to claim to discuss claim at this point we're so fucked out of time

this is a large, we have to make compromises even if it's begrudgingly

im gonna be a boomer and be whiny for no justified or productive reason but this is the exact scenario that i hate and scum take advantage of

[innocentvillager]

a side note that if ythan-dgb-lld are all town that it doesn't really matter which wagon scum are on

[innocentvillager]

hopkirk i forgot you were in this game

[innocentvillager]

i kind of want to lol!switch from dgb to lld

i forgot about how much i don't townlean cephrir so that is not a presence i care for on the DGB wagon

AGar is a vibe thing, posting has gotten better and more present lately i think, also feels more direct and substantive lately (but could be pushing an agenda). but im not sure about him rn

i asked @DGB for what SirCakez thinks about AGar here partly because he caught him as scum in AGar's most recent scumgame so im interested in hearing those thoughts

pedit: sorry hopkirk lol idk but tbf i kinda forgot you were in the last game too for some reason. maybe your posts just don't stick out enough? your avatar? lolool idk what it is your postcount is pretty high too

[innocentvillager]

cephrir is town because he mostly posts reasonable things and we occasionally "mindmeld" but much more importantly because dann is town and dann says cephrir is town is basically where im at there

[innocentvillager]

hopkirk this game is stressful lol idk what to do

[innocentvillager]

uh, how's this meant to be read? did you switch on ceph between the two posts?

you're right, my wording is confusing, it didn't really change between the posts

i don't like, independently townlean Cephrir based on my own reasoning/vibes, the mindmelding thing was like occasional and fine and maybe slightly +town but that's whatever

my main point is, if i have to adjust my probability of him being scum, it would be absurd to ignore the fact that one of my TRs, dannflor, is strongly townreading him

so townleaning by proxy for dannflor i guess. maybe there's a term for that kind of townlean

[innocentvillager]

but obviously don't stress out too much about the game. if you don't solve it right now you'll only get mocked, blamed for the loss, and treated with mild disdain by half of the playerlist for the rest of your life

hopkirk this game is stressful lol idk what to do

sometimes when i'm having trouble sorting people i head over to the speakeasy and read through their post history in stuff like relationships, politics, sad and so on. it can be pretty useful sometimes tbh, plus if you reach the point where you're doing that then the weirdness of the fact you're doing that really takes away from some of the more general stress

just let go. let the memes into you

that is true, you are all human beings too who don't only play mafia, i do forget that sometimes

thanks hopkirk <3

[innocentvillager]

agar's vibes are terrible. if you forgot i was here then you probably haven't seen how bad agar's vibes are because they're terrible in relation to how he's posting about me. can you take a look and tell me what you think of his push?

as a general rule i tend to find tunneling more NAI/town!indicative? he was being pedantic about the word "counterwagon" which I don't really understand or agree with (well, maybe because i don't really understand it) but i don't think is like, a particularly persuasive thing to be pushing as a scum agenda? It's possible that it's just noise to pretend like he cares about something but, idk, super opinionated and confident/tunnelly AGar feels like a town!AGar that I have previously scumread in the past

those were my gut impressions on his posting from your 1v1

[innocentvillager]

what's your rough %s on Dann scum and town!dann being right on the read and Dann's actual confident on it come out at. i don't need a full Bayesian calc, but that feels like a big TR on Dann and is Dann that certain on Ceph?

i don't really get the first of the two posts based on that, are you basically saying you don't want to TR him but he probably is town in the second?

basal scum probability = 23.5%

dannflor scum probability = ~15%

town!dannflor chance of reading cephrir incorrectly as town = ~12%
chance cephrir is town if scum!dannflor = ~50% (no idea what this number should be ??)

P(C scum) = P(D scum) * P(C scum | D scum) + P(D town) * P(C scum | D town)
=15% * 50% + 85% * 12% = 17.7%

[innocentvillager]

SirCakez says about AGar that he is a lot more passionate in this game them in legends, he is engaged, he is not coasting. On iso, SirCakez leans town. Not locktown, but lean town as he looks better here than in legends.

the main case on AGar there, as i understand it, was too much fluffposting. I don't get the same vibe here, especially AGar's later posting. does he agree with that? i was not in that game so i don't really have a great sense apart from a hindsight biased skim.

[innocentvillager]

like, fmpov, AGar is very explicitly engaging with the game, having hard stances, actively pushing people he thinks are scum and little "nitpicky things" like the word "counterwagon" (which, could be a distraction)

which was quite differently from Cakez's case on AGar in that game. But also, AGar literally just 100% gave up in scum PT and self-hammered that moment he saw that case. So he's clearly aware that it's a deficiency

[innocentvillager]

he was pushing other equally bad stuff before that
i feel like he was either not expecting pushback, or he thought i was an easy target to shade (or he was just doing it to shade me)
it feels like something he's 'pushing' that i don't really buy the town motivation behind because the push is objectively garbage, everyone who's commented (basically just Dunn/you/me) agrees it's bad, but only i seem to think it's scum indicative? bad pushes like that where there isn't a solid town mindset behind them come from scum more than town. i'm not convinced he buys his own arguments, but he's hard sticking to them in a way that feels floundering despite it not actually drawing attention

after your omgus on unwnd last game i really don't think anyone could shade/push you and not expect pushback

in fact, now that im thinking about it, that's another point against a scum!AGar town!Hopkirk world, because what scum wants to push the townie who's going to omgus relentlessly over some little nitpicky thing

[innocentvillager]

fuck i really need to be productive so i will try to restrain myself from posting too much ikik deadline is close

[innocentvillager]

also, iirc SirCakez has town!AGar experience in Open 792 Masons and Monks, so that should also help his AGar read? idk

[innocentvillager]

scum wants to push the townie who's going to omgus relentlessly over some little nitpicky thing

to be clear i tried to say the "push" was over a nitpicky thing, not your "omgus"

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: LLD let’s progress this game

[innocentvillager]

but also the first scumgame I had in something like 7 or 8 years, and I'm not really thrilled with how that game went at all

hopefully this scumgame will go better for you

[innocentvillager]

In post 2807, innocentvillager wrote:
a side note that if ythan-dgb-lld are all town that it doesn't really matter which wagon scum are on


What inspired you to say this?

because jj was trying to decide which wagon to join based on the compositions and i do have all 3 of them above the null line

[innocentvillager]

Titus wagon is too unrealistic unless someone that's not named mastina writes a convincing wall on her and I don't think im your guy

if you'd like to be the hero, be my guest

my hero flanndor <3 VOTE: Titus

[innocentvillager]

IV has felt off these last few pages but that's not happening. I'm skeptical he forgot Hopkirk was in this game given he has, what, 200 posts by this point?

yeah it's weird huh idk

like i said maybe it's something about his posting that makes me like glaze over it, similar to last game

it's not like i've forgotten he completely existed for like, a whole week, and just then remembered he was there, just like, i haven't really been sorting him the past couple days so my mind was not on him

[innocentvillager]

i don't know that im super gung ho about the titus exe anymore

she's back to nullish for me i think

dann, i eagerly await your case

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: LLD spiritually on Titus awaiting Dann's case but with this ridiculous proximity to deadline this is better than the alternatives (and will be potentially an informative flip) and also Gypyx is fine flipping LLD

i personally think lld should claim soon-ish so we have time to discuss the claim and move off but idk how optimal that is

[innocentvillager]

so your team is all in agreement with your LLD push?

[innocentvillager]

anyway I'm not gonna wall post because I figure it's better to directly engage you now that you're in thread

is she gonna be engaged enough though? you may have to wallpost if you're going to swing people onto her as a viable wagon, it's just too late

[innocentvillager]

I don't know Titus' scum game, but her game/reads so far seems better/more accurate (which is not necessarily more townie) than in the previous game, and her push against Mastina is somewhat similar to a push Titus made against a Townie in the previous game, although that occurred later on into the game.

i reread this again and realized i want more

how do you know they're "better/more accurate" this game...?

how does her push against mastina feel similar to a push she made on townie in the other game?

[innocentvillager]

i totally agree with Dann

for Dann it's the lack of pushing given her confidence/hard stances is weird,

ive said this before but ill just add that for me it's also her confidence/hard stances given the lack of substantiation for the kind of player she is (thinking evidence-based player, reassesses a lot, VCA player, excels more in late game)

i've seen titus feel mechanical as both alignments at times tho especially early game, so idk

[innocentvillager]

According to the birthday paradox, in a group of 23 (or more) randomly chosen people, the probability is more than 50% that some pair of them will have the same birthday.[13] A related coincidence is that 365 times the natural logarithm of 2, approximately 252.999, is very close to the number of pairs of 23 items, 253.

woah this is wild

[innocentvillager]

imo bell is not the way today and will get a lot more scrutiny tomorrow anyways because he will actually have to give serious content and push mfs, today im fine giving him a free pass sitting on the sidelines while grumbling at 17 other people for collectively not running someone up fast enough

when bell is expected to play over a while, i feel like his alignment becomes more and more clear

[innocentvillager]

i think we should decide if dgb/lld should claim or not

[innocentvillager]

even if you get to L-1 and intent?

[innocentvillager]

even if you get to L-1 and intent?

Homie, we're 20 hours from deadline, a claim is a waste at this point. If you wanted claims you should've pushed for consolidation like a week ago.

IV is scum probably

great read

[innocentvillager]

anyone wanna bet on the odds on a scumflip today?

i say 10-20%

[innocentvillager]

@anyone who shows up in thread please vote a top2 wagon if you aren't already

[innocentvillager]

why are you asking me lol idk

[innocentvillager]

no dgb, you have to claim or you're scum, LLD doesn't need to claim if she doesn't want to.

[innocentvillager]

anyone wanna bet on the odds on a scumflip today?

i say 10-20%

Why are we not killing this?

This is cheeky scumfuckery.

this is the extent of LLD's fighting to survive and push another wagon

wow

meh

i know it's wifom wank but like why does scum!LLD do this -_-

[innocentvillager]

i was wondering if i was gonna wake up to a flip but noooo can't be given that

winter is town probably

[innocentvillager]

UNVOTE: LLD

Mastina convinced me to unvote. All the names she shaded in her last post are town.

UNVOTE: LLD
Mastina convinced me to unvote. All the names she shaded in her last post are town.

Ah yes, the unvote is totally because of me, and not because it came after implosion listed you as on the wagon so that you can point to that as "proof" that you were on the LLD wagon while reaping the benefits of not actually voting LLD. (Which is to say: making it harder to actually eliminate LLD, but paying lip service for future days where it will look like you were willing to even though it's self-evident that you're not.)

I want an LLD Agar OkaPoka townblock. We need to start uniting as town.

So it makes me uncertain as to what I want. The DGB wagon is more pure too.

also this is so petty and made me lol that I think it like, comes from town more often than scum

i think i need to seriously reset tomorrow

[innocentvillager]

The push was similar in the sense that she was way too confident based on flawed reasoning.

so titus is playing more similar to her town meta than i thought basically, and i shouldn't be that alarmed by the lack of substantiation is what im getting from this. gotcha

[innocentvillager]

I could hyper wagon IV if 10 people agreed to it, otherwise if you think I'm town, you need to be voting DGB.

I'm not vibing with this. IV has been genuinely invested in the outcome of this elim on a level that I think would be hard to fake as scum.

Yes, I agree.

I also agree

[innocentvillager]

DGB when did your IV read change

dann tbth i am getting a lil paranoid of ceph i want to be convinced tomorrow somehow if we're still here

[innocentvillager]

honestly im starting to think scum are in total control of this game and the collective's reads are not great and my reads are even worse, i don't think Titus is necessarily scum anymore and scum could totally just be on the sidelines of all of this

[innocentvillager]

fake vc

Lady Lambdadelta

(8): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Hopkirk, Ythan, jjh927, innocentvillager, Luca Blight

DrippingGoofball

(7): Dunnstral, Cephrir, OkaPoka, Lady Lambdadelta, Bell, Dannflor, Winter Flakes

Ythan

(2): AGar, Almost50

Not Voting

(1): Titus

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for 11:00 AM PST on February 12, in (expired on 2021-02-12 15:00:00).

AGar, A50, Titus, clock is ticking please

[innocentvillager]

honestly im starting to think scum are in total control of this game and the collective's reads are not great and my reads are even worse, i don't think Titus is necessarily scum anymore and scum could totally just be on the sidelines of all of this

I don’t even know what the collective reads are

There’s so little unity in this game

i guess what i mean is the main wagons that have emerged today i would consider the "collective's reads"

but you are right there is an abnormal amount of disagreement this game i feel like, and probably partly due to scum playing well, and potentially partly due to town playing badly

[innocentvillager]

why do you need to be back i don't feel like you need to

[innocentvillager]

wow we are at

9 LLD
8 DGB
1 Ythan - classic A50 (not town!indicative btw, he's been the odd one out on not voting as scum before)

[innocentvillager]

im honestly just excited to see the first fucking flip in this game when all my teammates have seen like 5+ flips or something

[innocentvillager]

i never understood how that works, what's the point of you posting at all if everyone knows you're scum leader

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: lady lambdadelta

!!!

[innocentvillager]

very opportunistic, rushed, scummy hammer by okapoka here. if lld flips town okapoka is confirmed scum.

[innocentvillager]

ur deepwolfing with oka, aren't you seth

[innocentvillager]

yes, 4 weeks later and we have finally flipped someone in the Team Mafia 2021 Large Normal

[innocentvillager]

it's okay when our game gets to d4 every other game will be done so it'll just be a singular massive hydra game

[innocentvillager]

The players in this category are all scum or honorary scum, we need the mod to sort out the rest.

honorary scum? chill lol

[innocentvillager]

innocentvillager: Starts off on DGB, ditches to vote me, and then hard pushes LLD under the guise of progressing the game. Wants Titus wagoned. LLD thought this was scum. He dies.

"hard pushes LLD" okay clearly i hard pushed her ???? what fucking game are you reading dude

[innocentvillager]

Hi,
Driving home in an hour then full attention.

I have never seen Dunnstrall effort this hard. In addition, in the individual comments nice touch on talking about flipping DGB when DGB is dead if scum.
What's a neopolitan?

probably town!Dunnstral tbh

sucks that he's tunneling me

[innocentvillager]

dunnstral you've played with me enough to know this is transparently town!me i feel like? or at least have strong doubt? i don't feel your analysis of me warrants your hard SR

[innocentvillager]

dunnstral you've played with me enough to know this is transparently town!me i feel like? or at least have strong doubt? i don't feel your analysis of me warrants your hard SR

[innocentvillager]

our reads all suck and people who are confident tunnelling should probably tone it down

[innocentvillager]

i personally still like iv a bit although i will admit his eod was kinda ?????????

but dgb/lld both being town makes it feel like a wash now idk

?

[innocentvillager]

it is obviously in light of the 3 townflips, two of which people FIERCELY scumread

[innocentvillager]

the comment about us us having 10-20% chance of flipping scum when we were that close to deadline felt annoying

were you actually expecting to hit scum??

[innocentvillager]

with how EOD was yesterday?

cmon oka

[innocentvillager]

you were accusing me of deadline manipulation with 5 days left to deadline when i was wagoning ythan

literally the time to show doubts about stuff is not with no time there isnt a point to commenting

no i wasn't??

[innocentvillager]

if oka is scum he is making an move onto town!Ythan EoD on purpose (this is probably not SvS given proximity to deadline and Ythan has high scramble compromise-wagon potential), probably to divert the wagon away from someone else. This could be scum!LLD (most likely), scum!Bell, scum!DGB, or scum!Titus, that's basically it imo. if I was scum!Oka and most of the major wagons were on town I would not feel the need to fake frustration about the gamestate and stick my neck onto a low content townie push.

this felt like you saying i was messing with the deadline?

"if you were scum"

when i see people doing weird/townie things i try to come up with a scum narrative for it

this is an observation in your favor

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: jjh i do not townread this slot

[innocentvillager]

i am kind of frustrated rn and i will try and come back when im not so i dont tilt off in thread

[innocentvillager]

sorry

[innocentvillager]

it's literally absurd that people are scumreading (???) and im just getting pissing looking at it again so i will have to delay my return to the thread for longer

[innocentvillager]

if i get miseliminated or vigged we will have fucking WORDS

[innocentvillager]

if someone would like to case me go right fucking ahead

don't hide behind your nebulous bullshit shade

fucking come right at me and i will tear your bullshit apart

you are not misexing me here

[innocentvillager]

ugh im sorry

this is so dumb

im just not used to this much shade being casted on me when i feel ive been transparently town this whole game and for some reason i just get really upset when i see more shade coming at me

literally the whole point of this game is casting shade on people why the fuck am i playing this game if i can dish it but can't handle it

[innocentvillager]

Dunnstral

you have to understand that, i don't play this game to roll mafia and relish in being a manipulative liar

i play this game because i like figuring out the mafia team, and when i get invested especially, i really want to win, you know this is straight from my town meta

i guess you haven't seen me as scum but it's way different, yes i play to win for the most part but i can't fake the energy, genuine interrogation, fresh content, and sustained presence in thread that I do as town and frankly i doubt many scumplayers can to the extent that i do (yes, even though I know it's my problem, I just still can't), let alone me, a literal shit-tier scumplayer

ive been complaining about both D1 wagons and they both flipped town and that's scummy how? i don't really understand what the case on me is in general

but this is going to fall on deaf ears because you've literally already said you won't entertain self-meta arguments like this

[innocentvillager]

i think it's been pretty clear from my d1 play that I've been trying to sort all the contentious slots like LLD, herc, Ythan, DGB, AGar, Titus, prioritized accurately for the most part, and had real, complicated opinions about each slot

[innocentvillager]

what are you even talking about? ive been playing and sorting every single RL day of D1? ive never said I don't want to play this game? this thread opened like 3 hours ago and i expressed my frustrations, realized I was getting tilted and took a quick break

[innocentvillager]

3297 is way more likely to come from town than scum

Yeah after you said mafia players can't possibly have egos big enough to think they got caught for the wrong reasons, I'm not really putting any stock in anything you say.

when did he say this?

[innocentvillager]

chill

it's been 3 hours since the thread opened today and i open the thread to a bunch of new shade on me

of course that's going to be the thing im thinking about first and foremost

i will get to this when i am feeling like it

[innocentvillager]

i think {OkaPoka, mastina, A50, Dunnstral, AGar, Winter} is more likely to be town than the list of everyone else and that's essentially where im at in reads

[innocentvillager]

i have some wifomy thoughts on that im not sure will be convincing

specifically, i don't think winter ever pops in the way he did at EOD and does nothing as scum

i don't think he goes swinging at TW the way he did at the beginning

[innocentvillager]

okapoka yells at infinity to ping Winter on discord to get Winter to move his vote, then this sequence of posts happens

I am here

what are the options? lld dgb and ythan?

I dont really like either of those options but if lld green flips we get more info I think is she at L-1?

this came at the same time, then there was a 6 hr gap until this post:

I popped back in because Infinity pinged me on discord after Oka asked him to?

and then he finally votes dgb

this is not how a scum hydra handles this interaction, imo

[innocentvillager]

Like, are you for nor against wagoning Ythan? Why? Do you think I'm trolling or serious? Do you think Oka is chainsawing a scum p or is his chicken head turn into an ostrich head and get burried down the ground?

im not sure about Ythan. I spent a chunk of time challenging Oka's case on him and trying to sort him D1 and got like, "lean-town" out of the interaction (i talk about it in my ISO), but im reconsidering as the scum density increases with 3 townflips

i don't see a great reason to wagon there atm but i think i would compromise there?

Also, where do you stand regarding the Vig holstering? If you disagree, who do you think they should hit? What do you think of the Babysitter?

i think Titus got visited by a Babysitter and that it's NAI for Titus's alignment, otherwise, im not really sure if i have many thoughts here

i will ask Gypyx, i know better than to give mechanical advice in Normal games and he's the setup guy on our team

[innocentvillager]

the pre-written post seems like a massive over-reaction to a d1 mis-elim. his plans dont alter at all with the new info on dgb-town.

i agree it seems like a bit of an overreaction, but why is it scum!indicative? how do you feel about my reaction to getting shade thrown on me earlier today, is that also scum!indicative?

"his plans don't alter" is potentially a fair point if true?

@Dunnstral

does/why doesn't DGB's flip make you reconsider your readslist?

[innocentvillager]

how do you feel about my reaction to getting shade thrown on me earlier today, is that also scum!indicative?

i mean i dont think the two things are remotely comparable
dunn looks like he wants to take over and control the game going forward
you looked like you had an emotional rxn to being sr
whats the connection ?

i just thought they were both "overreactions" as called by various people so i was curious why you didn't comment on my reaction, but yeah i guess when you look at the potential motivations they can be pretty different

[innocentvillager]

Based on the D1 wagons I think it's unlikely both Titus and Ythan are scum, and right now I'm leaning towards Titus being the more likely of the two as her play seems more calculated than Ythan's.

why do either of them have to be scum..?

[innocentvillager]

im not really sure why people strongly TR'd Hopkirk at all, maybe someone can enlighten me there

[innocentvillager]

Based on the D1 wagons I think it's unlikely both Titus and Ythan are scum, and right now I'm leaning towards Titus being the more likely of the two as her play seems more calculated than Ythan's.

why do either of them have to be scum..?

I didn't say they did? But I'd say it's likely.

the way you worded it was like:

"of the D1 wagons, i don't think they're both scum

i think Titus is more likely of the two"

which pinged to me as you were setting one of up them up as scum when they could both be town, whether maliciously or not? there was just a missing link there for me, idk

[innocentvillager]

I mean it's only a 6%, difference but compared to the bullshit we make up on the fly that's really good.

bell has won the game in my eyes already

[innocentvillager]

What do you think the odds are that we had significant wagons on four town players yesterday?

feels like gamblers fallacy teehee

before LLD and DGB were flipped? probably pretty low? (even though I TL'd both of them, i don't think my reads change the probability that much)

after they flip town? i don't see why one of the two has to be scum just because they were part of the 4 EOD wagons

[innocentvillager]

are you feeling ok?

you two might want to use this size text if you want to throw shade or anything but locktown reads at me. less people will be able to see it that way so it'd be far less embarrassing for you when you realize you were wrong and have to shamefully redact the badness of your inability to read me

it's like the two of you don't understand the concept of a townblock or something. mutual townreads smh

im sorry! hopefully i will come around on you if you're town, im just not currently as towny as you as some others

im getting okay vibes from you but im getting some amount of redeeming qualities about almost every slot this game so i clearly need to reevaluate what's real and what's not :/

and lol, i already know i suck at this game so i feel no shame for that

[innocentvillager]

okapoka yells at infinity to ping Winter on discord to get Winter to move his vote, then this sequence of posts happens

I am here

what are the options? lld dgb and ythan?

I dont really like either of those options but if lld green flips we get more info I think is she at L-1?

this came at the same time, then there was a 6 hr gap until this post:

I popped back in because Infinity pinged me on discord after Oka asked him to?

and then he finally votes dgb

this is not how a scum hydra handles this interaction, imo

So it seems people were not convinced from my Winter argument so I will try to explain myself little more and maybe people can tell me where they disagree. The crux of the Winter TL is that:

1) Infinity didn't really try to fill Winter in on why they were pinging him, based on Winter's entrance to the thread. I believe scum!Infinity would try to at least assess the situation based on it being EOD and potentially advise Winter what the optimal course of action would be to not look scummy, or tell him to not. Infinity has been helping out the team a lot in general so I would've expected something more thorough if Winter was scum here; rather, it felt like the focus was urgency of getting Winter in-thread

2) Winter immediately just posted "I am here", when he TOTALLY could've delayed it/pretended he hadn't seen it or Infinity hadn't pinged him yet when he had made up his mind or something. This is also indicative of (1) happening.

3) Winter looked like he was genuinely trying to process what was going on in real time (more evidence of (1) being the case), and instead of committing to something or "promising to commit to a vote", he just called both wagons meh and ducked out. I don't see scum Winter doing that, I could be totally off base here but the vibe I get from Winter as a player is that he is more self-conscious of how he is perceived in thread and that whole interaction definitely did not feel self-conscious at all

[innocentvillager]

*he is more self-conscious of how he is perceived in thread AS SCUM

[innocentvillager]

i think {OkaPoka, mastina, A50, Dunnstral, AGar, Winter} is more likely to be town than the list of everyone else and that's essentially where im at in reads

why most of these?
(i agree on Mastina/Dunn)

AGar we've talked about before 2821, 2833, 2845, 2848, 2850 and I don't necessarily see any reasons to change my current evaluation of him as it stands. He has kind of continued the activity and direct/confrontational posting on D2 that I felt I saw towards EOD1. With DGB's townflip and SirCakez from its team leaning town on AGar (having hard-caught scum!AGar recently), that gives me a little bit more confidence on AGar as well

I am definitely open to re-evaluating him, are there specific things I should look at?

Winter I've talked about

OkaPoka - Oka feels kind of like me this game, in that if he is scum, he has been faking all the highs and lows of the deadline scramble, being present when it's urgent, and actively pushing the town to be productive at times when it felt pretty natural to do so. His confidence and excitement on pushing DGB especially when the major wagons we've revealed have all been town feels like an unnecessary amount of weight to be putting behind an elimination, although I'll admit that this could be agenda-motivated because without him DGB probably doesn't become a wagon so maybe NAI. I feel like Oka is more of a town player from his style and I don't believe he can deepwolf this convincingly as scum (if I'm wrong, please link me a game and let me know), nor is he as incentivized to anymore with his team already losing Black Flag. If he's scum I'm kind of fine letting him keep being himself and just get more readable over time. But I'm also open to reconsidering here that he's for some reason decided to effort and play the deepwolf here.

A50 - mostly a tonal read and my teammate Gypyx thinks he can read A50 reasonably well and also thinks he's town. I think the increased urgency of A50 as we go into D2 with 3 townflips with all the varied, urgent thoughts he is putting out seems town!indicative. My experience with scum!A50 is that he kind of fades into the background and I remember lol!writing him off as town because it looked like he was just doing his own thing the whole game. The crux of the A50 scumgame from what I remember is looking busy and that's not at all what I'm seeing when he's engaged with thread. I am also open to re-evaluating here because I don't know if I put that much stock into my half-hearted meta.

[innocentvillager]

OkaPoka - Oka feels kind of like me this game, in that if he is scum, he has been faking all the highs and lows of the deadline scramble, being present when it's urgent, and actively pushing the town to be productive at times when it felt pretty natural to do so.

Am I too high that this looks like you're just casually talking about being scum rn

that wasn't the intention

I'm saying like, I definitely cannot fake the posting energy that I believe I or OkaPoka have had this game, and that I don't think he can either.

[innocentvillager]

I'll add to my A50 TR that I thought him not realizing the SK thing is potentially +town and at worst NAI (it definitely felt like a real misunderstanding), and that his aggressive impatience at me only addressing myself and not the game is real annoyance at what he views as unproductive discourse, which to me also feels +town