Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

[Zulfy]

clidd and BS? Forgot about BS.
BS: What should we do. Hoctac unvote pls when you get back

[Zulfy]

I got table fever.
Hey let's assume there is 1 scum left in hood and 1 scum left in not-the-hood. We don't know how scum is gonna night kill, but we can know how town is gonna lynch. Let's say town decides to lynch outside of the hood until they hit scum, and they keep mislynching until LYLO.

And first let's say that scum decide to night kill outside the hood every night. Then you get:

Spoiler:

Day	Players	Town	Scum	Hood scum	Scum not in hood
3	9	7	2	1/3	1/6
4	7	5	2	1/3	1/4
5 (LYLO)	5	3	2	1/3	1/2

This means that on LYLO we'd have a better shot lynching the not-hood member again in order to not lose. Doesn't seem that beneficial for scum.

Alright then instead let's say scum decides to night kill in the hood every night, obviously not their partner. Then you get:

Spoiler:

Day	Players	Town	Scum	Hood scum	Scum not in hood
3	9	7	2	1/3	1/6
4	7	5	2	1/2	1/5
5 (LYLO)	5	3	2	1/1	1/4

Seems more beneficial, since town wouldn't

know

if the last hood member is scum or not, it's possible they don't get lynched if they're townread, but then the lynch is between 4 people outside of the hood, which might be difficult but doesn't seem so bad.

The last option is that scum kills in the hood night 3 and not in the hood night 4, or not in the hood night 3 and in the hood night 4, since town will be lynching outside of hood either way the end result is the same.

Spoiler:

Day	Players	Town	Scum	Hood scum	Scum not in hood
3	9	7	2	1/3	1/6
4	7	5	2	1/2	1/5
5 (LYLO)	5	3	2	1/2	1/3

or

Day	Players	Town	Scum	Hood scum	Scum not in hood
3	9	7	2	1/3	1/6
4	7	5	2	1/3	1/4
5 (LYLO)	5	3	2	1/2	1/3

This seems like the best bet for scum, town isn't guaranteed that scum even exists in the hood but not lynching in the hood has a two-thirds chance of losing the game.

[Umlaut]

I would say I can believe he didn't read anything, except his vote for me seems at least somewhat based on the investigative results that have been presented.

[Umlaut]

Just to make sure. There are no other claims and noone had guilty on Brass.

I was going through Reundo's and Blatant Scum's isos to try and find clues to who the most likely partner would be, and found this oddity.

Read the posts starting from 1534. BS says he doesn't know the setup and asks for info. Ame for some reason says she has a guilty on SirCakez. This is corrected, but

no one ever says anything about a guilty on brass specifically

(only that he was lynched). The only time that was stated outright before then was when Ame herself originally said it in 1422, and if BS went back and read that he should know that there most definitely

was

a guilty on brass. This seems to be slipping that BS understood more about the setup and game state than he was letting on in these posts.

BS, where did you get the idea that "noone had guilty on Brass"?

[Umlaut]

I also want to resurrect this post by Ame:

Also considering Brass's willingness to be lynched, I think there's a decent possibility that there is another scum in the hood since his lynch would pseudoclear them. Who began the we-are-definitely-lynching-you-tomorrow campaign against Brass N1? It sounds like a Zulfy line, but if it was Hoc, then I think this supports that idea.

[Hoctac]

UNVOTE: Umlaut

[Hoctac]

Thing is, if clidd is scum, that's a sizable hole in town PR power.

Follower + 1-shot Cop is just not enough I don't think.

[Hoctac]

Zulfy, do you townread Umlaut or like him by virtue of scumreading clidd?

[Hoctac]

This reads so much as Umlaut + Zulfy right now. The only thing which concerns me about that would be that is how it's almost too obvious with how they're defending each other.

If scum!Umlaut is lynched today:
Scum!Zulfy would be put in 5p tomorrow. Would have to be the last neigbour standing if we lynch 2/3 neighbours and trust clidd wasn't bussing, and discount the traitor, actually there's a lot if possibilities here.

[clidd]

I'm still waiting for Zulfy's argument.

[Hoctac]

Okay, let's talk about clidd!scum scenario. He would get a mislynch on Umlaut today, and then rely on us trusting him in 5p LyLo, in order to get a game winning mislynch in the hood probably. clidd + Looker/Bla would make most sense if he's going for an all out win. Zulfy + clidd are probably disaligned with how clidd is okay with a Zulfy lynch and Zulfy is currently gunning for a clidd lynch, it seems too risky if there ends up being any takers for either.

Scum would have to be very weak in PRs for this to make sense though. Am I forgetting a town PR? It's only Follower + 1-shot Cop otherwise, right?

[Auro]

Umlaut+Zulfy
BS+Hoctac

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

Hoctac's conveniently ignoring the push on BS.

[Umlaut]

I should throw out here that I'm okay with a Zulfy lynch too. I'm highly confident there is scum in {Hoctac, Zulfy} and entertaining the possibility that they are both scum.

[Umlaut]

I can easily see Zulfy's push as either for show (we are not lynching clidd today, realistically) or pushing for double mislynches on me and clidd, today and tomorrow.

[Auro]

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Although here it's a non mechanical auto, lynching the wrong slot (50%) will leave LyLo to be influenced by scum manipulation. So, we should be lynching the highest equity scum slot within those four, and then lynch their associated partner.

[Umlaut]

Anyway, if Hoctac is sticking with the vig claim, we can aim to kill both you and Zulfy today and tonight. Or just lynch Hoctac when that kill doesn't happen.

[Umlaut]

Nm, Hoctac VT-slipped in 2035

[Auro]

So Zulfy in the hood said that Clidd was "pretty obviously town" overnight, and retracted that when the day started, claiming that it was a test to see if scum in hood would NK him. I did feel this was townie, but now when pitted with his Clidd push it's interesting.

However, I feel that Blatant Scum has stronger evidence (signaling) from their posts? Interestingly both Zulfy and Hoctac have ignored it, which is what I expect scum in {one scum in hood, one traitor outside} to do - since they obviously wouldn't want to lynch their traitor!

[Ircher]

Day 4 VC #4

Umlaut (1): Looker (1825)
Looker (0):
Not Voting (6): Auro, clidd, Zulfy, Blatant Scum, Umlaut (1750), Hoctac (2030)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch a player.

This phase will end on May 31, 2020 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4:00) or in (expired on 2020-05-31 16:00:00).

Moderator Notes

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2.

Please note the prod timers. You will be prodded after 32 hours on Tuesday-Friday.

[Umlaut]

Don't everyone talk at once, now...

[Umlaut]

BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Can you expand on this?

[Zulfy]

Thing is, if clidd is scum, that's a sizable hole in town PR power.

Follower + 1-shot Cop is just not enough I don't think.

Informed FV tho. also you believe the follower claim?

Zulfy, do you townread Umlaut or like him by virtue of scumreading clidd?

Townread him.

[Zulfy]

I can easily see Zulfy's push as either for show (we are not lynching clidd today, realistically) or pushing for double mislynches on me and clidd, today and tomorrow.

why would I push for a lynch on you tomorrow?

[Zulfy]

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

The claim created the "plan". Up to that point I was pretty much in free-fall mentally.

[Umlaut]

I can easily see Zulfy's push as either for show (we are not lynching clidd today, realistically) or pushing for double mislynches on me and clidd, today and tomorrow.

why would I push for a lynch on you tomorrow?

Because "clidd was telling the truth, Umlaut must be scum after all"

Alternately, you don't push for it but just sort of let it happen today, then push to lynch clidd tomorrow because "I told you he was lying"