Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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low effort bet is titus/ari if gera is town. i wish i could hedge and shoot you just in case but i guess there's some possibility that you're lying about being one-shotYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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is low effort because it sort of uses the heuristic of "who has been doing the least rn", which is often wrongYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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does it matter if i shoot hutao instead of ari?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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my thinking says we win either way as long as the kay read is correct and committed toYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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yeah well i didnt listen to your naerys recommendation eitherYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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have been toying w scenario where we test gera's claim w my shot...You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i think they have to leave you alive? otherwise what mislims can they win with?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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if they kill within the uncleared it would be goodIn post 2678, Hu Tao wrote:
Couldn't scum kill whoever you say to protect? And that would be unable to figure out anything right?In post 2674, Psyche wrote: have been toying w scenario where we test gera's claim w my shot...You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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but we can imagine scenarios where i am roleblocked or otherwise disrupted. scum has to be stackedYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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of courseeeeeIn post 2683, Hu Tao wrote: Assuming I have a gun check left of course*You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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so hutao def doesnt want to be shot despite the reasoning that we win either wayYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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does RN or gera have readssYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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am of course always happy to stew and participate in stewingYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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hu tao is wrong here by the wayIn post 2695, Hu Tao wrote:
No. Like I said that scenario wouldn't cover gera townIn post 2693, Psyche wrote: so hutao def doesnt want to be shot despite the reasoning that we win either way
even if gera is town, we really only do need one consensus townread among the unconfirmed to ensure a winYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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worst case scenario, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools:
D3:
gera flips town
N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 2 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue
and 2 town alive in:
D4:
4v2, mylo
remaining scum would be two of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 2/3 chance of guessing right!
suppose we guess right
N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc
D5:
3v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right
what i'm trying to reiterate here:
we only have to be right about one townread to guarantee victory in even this worst case scenario.
that is because tomorrow, supposing i really do have a shot and the shot goes through, we always avoid losing if we don't eliminate this townread!
also, hu tao has been wrong each time she claimed that scum have any reason to shoot her
they already have a slim path to victory,
and literally have no path to victory where they don't use all their shots on me/pc/rn
maybe she miscalculated, maybe it's motivated reasoning. who knowsYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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hopefully, game ends tonight!
but even if it doesn't,
being right about kay or whomever we reach a consensus townread about,
and sticking to that read
winsYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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also, if there's a N5, titus gets another roleblock, and knows who to aim it atYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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titus should block more randomly than this if gera flips townIn post 2682, Hu Tao wrote: Okay final call from what I think should go down
Eliminate Gera
Titus: Roleblock Kay
Hu Tao: Gun check Kay
Psyche: Vig Ari
I think this leaves us in the best situation
but i assume that's obv?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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ok yeah we're definitely limming gera
almost have no choice
shameful play if he's town
we don't really need to wait for RN but it's a shame given he will potentially decide the game if gers flips town...You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go
i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be rightYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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any of these you particularly strongly feel is town?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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gera is like nas was to me — plausible enough to be anxious about, but ultimately the decision we have to make right now
do we autowin if he's scum? let me consider...You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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woah i think i just detected quite an error!
still -- yeah, we should start reasoning from the starting point that gera will flip scum. this anxiety about him being town is natural but probably pointlessYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)
D3:
gera flips scum
N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue
D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay
N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc
D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right
something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier postYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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if you're bored you can just go do something else this weekendIn post 2754, Hu Tao wrote:
No stalling please 🙏In post 2746, Psyche wrote: only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go
i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be rightYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i'm covering the worst scenario; which would include scum having a way around the roleblockIn post 2757, Hu Tao wrote:
This is wrong since Kay would have been role blocked. Thus only having a scum in me or Titus from any scenarioIn post 2755, Psyche wrote: worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)
D3:
gera flips scum
N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue
D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay
N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc
D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right
something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier postYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i swear it feels like you're jumping to conclusoins a lot today
we're really not even imagining that the scum could have a juggernaut or their own interruption role?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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why not? nas's role only realistically gets in the way of RN's role. if titus has a roleblock, scum must have other relatively strong abilitiesIn post 2758, Hu Tao wrote: I don't think scum have a strong arm otherwise NaS' role makes no senseYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end nowYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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think calling it a masterclass overrates the town's abilities exhibited this game
if we lose this eminently winnable game it's because we're badYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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imo it's you playing suboptimally -- and dropping a lot of underbaked takes at a pivotal point in the gameIn post 2770, Hu Tao wrote:
Just do it then. If you want to play suboptimal I cannot stop you.In post 2766, Psyche wrote: there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end nowYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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intellectually lazy and rushing everything
trajectory is hardly any better than RN's D1You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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even if kay is townie,thistown can still end up making the wrong call and limming her anyway
you and i agreeing isn't enough to lock in the winYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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what plan?yourplan was flawed. kay the newbie player had to correct it. and it didn't even hedge for gera flipping town after that.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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if town had taken their time last game, i would have lost. my win con was the two masons locking in their decisionIn post 2778, Hu Tao wrote: Psyche when you were scum last game. What did I do? I voted right after I had my read the last day. I just don't like stalling in general when I've already made up my mindYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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another example is the repeated prediction that scum would NK you tonight
a little stewing and we now know for a fact that NKing you loses the game for scumYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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day was ended substantially before deadlineIn post 2784, Hu Tao wrote:
Town literally did :lol: that's the funny part.In post 2782, Psyche wrote:
if town had taken their time last game, i would have lost. my win con was the two masons locking in their decisionIn post 2778, Hu Tao wrote: Psyche when you were scum last game. What did I do? I voted right after I had my read the last day. I just don't like stalling in general when I've already made up my mind
town even had option to lim another confirmed scum slot and save the decision over my 1v1 for another day!
they declined -- in dramatic fashion in the end
but whatever. im certainly aware that long delays can get in the way of otherwise good reads tooYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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you're not even rigt about what your stance was that game;
you warned jv to unvote and avoid hasty decision-making many times that game.
you said anyone who voted immediately was "claimed scum"
you could see the danger in hasty decision-making when it wassomeone elselocking in a decision too quickly
but i guess you're above it allYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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all this does make it easier to understand how the self-voting thing could have come from town i guessssYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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ok. im overattached to the image of hutao as just a broadly skilled player (which may be true!) instead of picking up on her patterns.
created a situation where any mistake read as a potential scumtell.
will update reads. could always do the remaining vacillating tonight if it comes to it.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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not saying we need to go on forever
i definitely went overboard yesterday when i called for another night to think things through
my current thinking is that if there areconcretethings beyond mere ambivalence that could be done to improve town or townie's understanding of the gamestate, we give it a chance to happen
gera's readlist imo has already been given a chance to happenYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i know the feeling
im going to try to think through a couple more scenarios and call it a washYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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oh ive been working on something to automate this vc highlighting thing
maybe ill shut up and finally finish itYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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block at random across unconfirmed if gera flips townIn post 2809, Titus wrote: Ok. I'm just blocking Kay unless it changes. Reality is bogging me down.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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the trouble is that you could end up one of the options in an upcoming mylo scenario, and idk if you'd survive given your light engagement this gameIn post 2812, Titus wrote:In post 2811, Aristeia wrote:
Titus are you unable to spend time to play this game at any point in the next five daysIn post 2809, Titus wrote: Ok. I'm just blocking Kay unless it changes. Reality is bogging me down.
I am playing? We have a consensus scumread and a gameplan, so why prolong it?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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hi rn
id be happy to give you a objective-ish walkthrough of the current gamestate if you'll hang aroundYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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so there are 5 unconfirmed slots, only one of which has claimed VT:
Titus (odd night roleblocker)
Hu Tao (??? gunsmith, learned PC is town)
Aristeia (VT)
geraintm (one-shot doctor, unused)
KayJayQueue (N2 informed townie, learned PC is town)
and 3 confirmed slots:
Random Nurse (you, IC)
Political Clout (confirmed by kay and hutao)
Psyche (??? vig, shot davesaz)
I have another shot I can use tonight.
Titus had a RB she can use tonight.
Hutao is playing coy about what she can do with her role at this point.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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worth keeping in mind that 4 VTs have died up to this point while you speculate about who's claim might be fake!You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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geraintm
it's the other scum i'm worried about
maybe two scum if it turns out gera's town
there's a good chance that your vote will decide a MYLO scenario tomorrow and/or the next dayYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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We can reason about the best and worst case scenario for town right now.
In the worst case scenario, we consistently make the wrong decision and all our abilities fail to have their intended effect.
Here's a simulation with arbitrary yet plausible choices for lims/kills.
D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips town, 5v2
N3
i shoot in the unconfirmed -- maybe ari,
she flips town, 4v2
Titus's roleblock fails to interrupt a night kill
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 3v2
D4
3v2, a mislim or lose scenario
there are 2 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed; in this imagining -- hutao, titus, kay,
so we have pretty good odds of being successful!
if we aren't, we lose
to finish the simulation, let's suppose we are successful, and titus is limmed and turns out to be scum
3v1
N4
scum kill in the confirmed again
maybe PC flips town, 2v1
D5
it's a 1v1 between the two remaining unconfirmed
with RN as the deciding vote
***
some key things indicated by this simulation:
- scum can't kill in the unconfirmed if they want to win
- if town can clear just one more slot, it cannot loseYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this back and forth kind of leaves me confident that kay will never even really be scumread, let alone mislimmed. so hutao is probably right that all this is wasted breath.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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some remaining qs in my head:
- what if my shot doesn't even happen?
- can we deduce anything else from claims? for example, is it plausible that town has as much power as it does under the scenario where aristeia (our last VT claim) is scum?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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...if my kill doesn't happen after a gera townflip, it's still MYLO tomorrow, but with worse odds of town being successful. 1/2 instead of 2/3
spookyYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this line is wrong. whether i kill tonight or not, we can lose if gera flips town and kay is treated as confirmed.In post 2825, Psyche wrote: - if town can clear just one more slot, it cannot lose
no my whole point w all these posts is that it's not a won gameIn post 2827, Aristeia wrote: I don't get why Kay can't be mafia but if you all think its a won game I'm not going to spend any more effort on itYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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nevermind; the logic assuming i succeed at my kill tonight is valid
if it's 2 scum in 3, then we really do just need one townread to stay firm.
it's only if my kill fails that things are trickier.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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So, I guess I genuinely can't find a single kay post that reads as scummy. I townread her because I can't scumread her. Can you pull together a decent reason to scumread kay outside of POE?In post 2832, Aristeia wrote:
I didn't understand this then. like why is kay a consensus townread?In post 2826, Psyche wrote: this back and forth kind of leaves me confident that kay will never even really be scumread, let alone mislimmed. so hutao is probably right that all this is wasted breath.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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We (everyone actually playing) are all as sure we can be gera is scum I think.
So maybe not worthwhile to handwring over the worst case scenario.
If gera is scum, the worst case scenario is considerably sunnier...
D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1
N3
i shoot in the unconfirmed -- maybe ari,
she flips town, 5v1
Titus's roleblock -- let's say targetted at kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill. could be because she missed scum, but also could be because scum have a way around a roleblock. could also be because she's scum!
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 4v1
D4
4v1, NOT a mislim or lose scenario
there is 1 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed
so we could miss!
but otoh the logic underlying titus's roleblock is a key factor in the lim decision.
...can we talk about how much this constrains things?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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so the wiki page about this has some useful context that could help you think through this: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=InformedIn post 2835, Aristeia wrote: I don't understand how her role as claimed can be balanced
it suggests we can think of an informed townie as a like a stronger IC, but a weaker one-shot cop
it's weaker than a cop because the player gets no choice over who is scanned
it's stronger than an ic because it's like having an ICplusa named role
idk you check it overYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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so let's say i get my kill and gera flips scum
also, titus RBs kay
is that enough to confirm a win?
does it at least take another unconfirmed off the table?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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