Matrix6 BP fix

[Toto]

I think FN6 could work,


But wait! How about a setup that:

1) Is balanced. 45% (theoretical) town-sided (probably more in practice, and yes, this is pure speculation)
2) Has no pesky PRs with confusing interactions. Shouldn't we make newbies learn clean scum/town-hunting first?
3) An IC that is an IC that dies on N1. Give more trustable advice, but let the little birds fly solo later too. Less, but higher quality ICs that can meet the demand because they always die the first night.

Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls, dream no longer!

viewtopic.php?f=115&t=71778

[Toto]

For a newbie game??? That's a bizarre set of non standard mechanics for a game that's supposed to be reasonably representative of a "typical" type of setup. And who even knows how much newbies would NOT enjoy being marked for death early on.

Yeah, probably not a good idea for a newbie. Still think we should get rid of PRs but don't know how to balance that without changing the mechanics a little bit.

Anyway, FN6 should do the trick.

[Toto]

It might be simpler to just go for either JK or Cop as the only PR otherwise (which theoretically would be balanced enough!)

I endorse this message

[Toto]

You also have to control for the claims mafia can make, and how successful they can be, and what the implications of those claims are. I don't know to what extent they affect the results today.

[Toto]

On issue with FN6 is that if nobody claims to have been visited by the FN at the start of D2 then the tracker can safely claim, assuming the doc didn't get NK.

Not sure if this is that bad.

[Toto]

I guess it is only half as bad as the current matrix, in the sense it pushes half the problem to D2. Basically D2 will be like: "I was visited/not visited by FN" series of claims. Followed by "tracker/not tracker" if no body was visited.

[Toto]

Fn6 = BP -> Friendly Neighbour

FN will always target someone at night. At the start of D2 you can ask everyone to claim if they were visited by the FN or not. If no one was visited then tracker can claim because there is no FN, which means there is a doctor. If tracker doesn't claim then you are in Column A or rows 1 or 2.

Basically the same problem, except no BP, and happens at the start of D2 and not D1.

[Toto]

Like, they don't have to say who is the FN, only they were visited.

[Toto]

I guess that can backfire if the FN visited the NK, but maybe that's a good thing?

[Toto]

What if the FN is roleblocked?

If he is RB there is no tracker = column A

[Toto]

I have to do the math but I'm not 100% convinced that is is anti town for the backup to claim early either.

[Toto]

Fn6 = BP -> Friendly Neighbour

FN will always target someone at night. At the start of D2 you can ask everyone to claim if they were visited by the FN or not. If no one was visited then tracker can claim because there is no FN, which means there is a doctor. If tracker doesn't claim then you are in Column A or rows 1 or 2.

Basically the same problem, except no BP, and happens at the start of D2 and not D1.

One issue: what if they FN's target was NK'd.

Yes, that's one risk. I guess (1) the FN always tries to target people unlikely to get NKed. (2) If that happens the FN needs to claim immediately to avoid outing the tracker.

So the strategy probably has positive EV and would still be used.

[Toto]

Yes, but, two things

(1) The primary PR only needs to survive 3 nights at most. By claiming you are drawing the NK to you, which means the primary only really needs to survive 2 nights at most.

(2) The strategy increases the EV for the OTHER scenarios, enables follow-the-tracker and limits the fake-claiming options for scum.

[Toto]

I guess one workaround is to say BP -> 50%/50% FN/BU

That way the lack of existence of a BU doesn't mean anything and the lack of FN visit doesn't mean anything. So the strategy would not give extra info when there is no positive claim, and naked positive claims are probably bad in both cases.

[Toto]

That's 8 setups

7

[Toto]

Oh wait, bad math.

[Toto]

That's 8 setups

It's that so bad though? at least it solves the problem (discourages the early claim strategy) and we can test both options (FN & BU) for balance&fun and adjust if needed over time.

[Toto]

Actually BU/FN doesn't work either.

sigh

[Toto]

D1: BU / not BU
D2: FN visit / not visit.

Can we make the Backup unknown? As in, you don't if you are a backup?

[Toto]

Would you change BP for an IC? I'm claiming BU is very close to an IC in terms of utility, and if you use this strategy always, even when there is no BU, then you increase the EV for town in non-BU rows and columns.

So it should not discourage the use of the early claim strategy IMHO.

BUT, if you make the BU hidden, then it should not be possible to early claim. (forget the FN)

[Toto]

Discouraging the early claim strategy is literally the whole point of the excercise. So if you're not discouraging it, then why bother?

I meant Backup6 doesn't (or shouldn't).

[Toto]

Discouraging the early claim strategy is literally the whole point of the excercise. So if you're not discouraging it, then why bother?

I meant Backup6 doesn't (or shouldn't).

But HiddenBackup6 should.

[Toto]

You guys are not seeing the full picture. Its not about A or 3.

[Toto]

How about something similar to what maker said. Here is matrix4:

2x J g g
C d r
C g g

In double goon you fake claim doctor with 1/3 chance of working.

[Toto]

Its more like list4

[Toto]

Basically the problem is that whatever you put in that cell has to be stronger than (IC if claimed + <EV from the effect on other rows and columns when no one claims>) to justify not following the early claim strategy.

I suspect that any role you put there that is stronger than that will break columns A and row 3.

If we all agree the Backup meets that bar (stronger but not strong enough) then this is a fine fix. If not I suggest the problem is the Matrix itself and in that case I suggest a simpler set up: list4, above. List4 only allows the 3 top town WR setups.

[Toto]

Hell, lets have 7 One-Shot Vigilantes and 2 mafia goons.

[Toto]

Yeah, that was a joke.

[Toto]

Named townie is not powerful enough. Doctor/Tracker is already bad.

[Toto]

I still think we should just get rid of the BP AND the tracker.

Row 1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
Row 3	Town Cop	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
Row 4	Town Cop	Town Doctor	Mafia Roleblocker

[Toto]

Why is JK/VT/goon in there twice?

It makes it harder for mafia to fake claim doctor.

[Toto]

may as well make row 2 something different without doctor than just another JK + VT setup though

i like the idea actually

Is this concern about aesthetics or because you think we should have more set ups?

If the former: you can think of it as just 3 rows where the first row has 50% chance.

If the latter: IDK what other set up we could add in there that has enough evidence of being balanced, and relatively town-sided. I suspect anything I come up with will be highly controversial.

[Toto]

Maybe a bit more clear:

				Chance
Row 1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon	50%
Row 2	Town Cop	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon	25%
Row 3	Town Cop	Town Doctor	Mafia Roleblocker	25%

1) Flip a coin, if

heads

choose row #1, otherwise go do step (2).
2) Flip a coin, if

heads

choose row #2,

tails

choose row #3.

[Toto]

List3 has average 49.6% town win rate based on historical stats.

[Toto]

BTW does anyone else think we should have a simpler newbie set up (i.e. list3), and a separate SE+ set-up where we can experiment a bit more.

For example, RC's matrix looks good on paper but some of the setups need to be tested and stats need to be gathered to check WR balance.

[Toto]

I think UB

might

be too townsided, but this is pure speculation, which means it should be treated as 100% truth.

Basically after the first scum lynch, which if ever needs to happen before night 3, scum need to have killed the 2 PRs to prevent an investigation. Kind of.

I do agree is probably the best replacement for BP so far. It should definitely be tested more.

Still think List3 is not a bad temporary solution until then.

[Toto]

Is it possible RC introduced the BP early claim strategy to be able to fake claim BP more sucessfully at newbies? Note how he stops any attempt to solve the problem.

VOTE: RC

[Toto]

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	RadiantCowbells	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

[Toto]

Someone remind me what's wrong with matrix 5?

Tracker can safely claim.

[Toto]

Isnt rolecop too weak on row 3? Its basically a named townie.