Newbie 1874 - Game over

[Draynth]

I saw blackvoid mention that he saw a lot of stuff indicating a lefty+jay / Una scumteam, @Oka do you have any idea what exactly he was talking about?
Lefty seemed to deathtunnel Una pretty hard in Day1, do you think scum would do this to their partner when there was a pretty decent chance that Una could've been lynched?
That being said when I think about it it seems more possible that scum could pull it off given they have day talk but I'm

not

sure

FBWOP

[Draynth]

I think Jay just gets autolynched here, but still think nobody should vote yet anyway
We have a better chance of finding his partner with everyone still alive provided we know that one of the remaining 4 players are scum trying to mislead us

[Myloninja13]

Hi, please please please don't vote!

[Draynth]

Mylo, assuming Jay is in fact scum, who do you think his most likely partner is?
Do you think it's possible that Jay is town?

[UnaBombaH]

If Jay is somehow town, they have played very much anti-wincon IMO.
Then again, this IS a newbiegame, but I think the point about hammers was made more or less clear after D1 anyway.. so not many excuses can be made for him anymore.

I'd approach the hammers from the PoV of "who benefited the most out of the discussion being shutdown?"
That should lead us closer to who might be their buddy.

[Draynth]

Who did you try to protect last night una?

[UnaBombaH]

I think Leftys D1 fits even better to that feeling I got from Derpy in that other Newbie I linked to earlier..
Overly aggressive, trying to run me down from the get-go, and ends up being scumread by D3.
I don't think there's any other reasonable lynch for today anyway.

[UnaBombaH]

Oh yeah, protected no one.
Didn't think it was even worth the try at this point.
I honestly didn't even think about this game during the night phase - I've been very occupied IRL..

[UnaBombaH]

Scum-RB can't roleblock and kill at the same time, right?
Meaning that no matter which role Jay flips, scum have to kill me tonight or risk a save from me..
Which should be enough for us to get a good chance to win in LyLo.

[Draynth]

They can, it says it in the sample role pm in the OP post.
That felt kind of forced though

[OkaPoka]

checkin in, I think I may have an idea of what blackvoid was talking about? Although it is very setup related.

[OkaPoka]

basically the theory is of a lefty+una team

In this scenario, they are both mafia and therefore mafia goons.
thus they know of three scenarios
2 of which its safe to claim doc
one of which claiming doc would draw out a doc claim and thus be a free kill
Lefty and Una both know of this, so lefty hard pushes una to get him to crumb and eventually claim, una pushes back and they try to start wagons on each other.
what this means is in the scenario in which una gets cc'd and lynched, lefty can nk the other remaining doc, hunt down the tracker with pr guessing and then coast to victory.
or una doesn't get cc'd and eventually claims, giving town essentially a conf town for the rest of the game. in reality he is scum, and if lefty ever gets lynched una is super conf town and town listens to him.

what i find odd in this scenario is una and lefty seem to have a disagreement in how the game should be played. una keeps hinting at pr while lefty wants a solid claim and continues to push una.

I’m willing to Lynch elsewhere today based on Mylo’s meta read of Una and Una’s softclaim. That said, I need a good alternative. Stan1ey was presented, and I could perhaps get behind such a Lynch, but I would like to hear other peole’s thoughts on the matter.

FChariot’s latest post btw makes me think newb!scum.

I’d lynch FC.

So we are all "fine" with a FC-lynch..

But no one is "fine" with a stan1ey-lynch? (I threw that name into the basket, and Ircher apparently is "fine" with that too).
No one has further said whether they now scumread/townread me after all the long walls I did, which makes me think most didn't even read them?
There's no way those posts were null in any way - you should either scum- or townlean me by now.

I'll vote for FC before I leave to the cabin for the weekend today unless someone else joins the stan1ey-wagon before that.

what does this mean ?
well now town is okay with lynching the fc slot. and if lefty+una are truly a team then this is genius.
lefty pushes una hard, once ircher the super town says he is okay with fc lynch, lefty has an out to create a wagon on someone else without seeming like he is backing off. keep in mind a townplayer wouldn't care about the optics, just scum
more people signal their support for fc lynch, una is okay with it, but he remains more strong about a stanley lynch. if una+lefty is a thing, that gives una an out from the stanley wagon and gives him the ability to join this third wagon if he so desires without seeming like a wagoner who is trying to mislynch. shows progression for future scumreads.

Sorry all I’ve become sort of detached from this game. I feel really good about Una being scum so I’m not shocked he softed a PR, but I understand the EV argument where lynching him is stupid atp. Even so, it doesn’t really change my read because I think scum ~always fakes a PR (especially ambiguously) under that sort of pressure.

I need to reread in depth but I remembered at one point thinking if Una/FC wasn’t the team then stan1ey/Draynth maybe had some equity, but that was based a lot on POE.

I’ll compromise and lynch FC here because if they flip scum that just solidifies my take on Una for avoiding discussion about the FC wagon.

last post lefty makes.
again this is assuming lefty+una.

lefty doesn't believe una's claim.
lefty says he is ok with fc.
he says flipping fc scum would make him lynch una, but now he has an out once my slot flips town, he can credibly back off from a una lynch.
then he gives us another pair for him to credibly latch onto and mislynch. including stanley
una scumreads stanley.
thats two wagons these two "colliding players" both of some sort of credibility to coalesce and latch onto. plus they wont be called out for it with the beginning of day 1 shenanigans of bussing and bussing.

[OkaPoka]

If Jay is somehow town, they have played very much anti-wincon IMO.
Then again, this IS a newbiegame, but I think the point about hammers was made more or less clear after D1 anyway.. so not many excuses can be made for him anymore.

I'd approach the hammers from the PoV of "who benefited the most out of the discussion being shutdown?"
That should lead us closer to who might be their buddy.

argument for shutting down discussion today:

today is the perfect day for scum to spew out wifom. jay can literally say whatever he wants. scumbuddy wants to spew bullshit after bullshit after bullshit, town has to shut down bullshit with more effort. town grows apathetic to the game as the game begins to stall and go in circles. town stops paying attention to the game. we approach the deadline. jay lynched, im dead tmr night

and then we have lylo with 2 apathetic town and one scum who now has a way of winning because town is apathetic and tired. so much wifom happens that town begins second guessing and turns the game into a 50/50. because reading into today is going to be useless, but town is going to try and confuse themselves.

everyone knows jay is scum by now, there is like no point into reading what happens today. we should be looking into interactions that happened prior to jay becoming conf scum.

[OkaPoka]

Let's run a scenario.

lets say jaysadweeb leaves one post today that says X is scum and then gets lynched.

how do you guys react? What do you discern from a simple post? Is he playing mindgames? Is he giving out his scum partner? Or is he doing a last second push against town?

[UnaBombaH]

They can, it says it in the sample role pm in the OP post.
That felt kind of forced though

The Normal-game guidelines changed so that they can't do both, so I actually assumed it was the same for newbies too..

Maybe I should've read the starting posts then..?

[Myloninja13]

If Jay flips mafia roleblocker, Una is conf!town. Otherwise, I'm still looking at both Draynth/Lefty and Una/Lefty as possible teams.

[OkaPoka]

today imo we should discuss whats going to happen day 4 and then end day

but im pretty sure its una has second scum, other than the off chance that jay flips rb.

ill go see if a case against draynth has some merit.

[OkaPoka]

okay did an iso read of draynth upto lefty leaving and im not seeing much associative tells, but I could i guess write something up about draynth=scum as an individual case if I feel inspired

[Myloninja13]

Yeah, Jays continued silence has brought their likelihood of scum from 95% to like 98%. Don’t see pretty much any way Jay flips town here.

I’m planning a decisive read through and analysis tomorrow.

[Draynth]

His only post yesterday was him hammering and clarifying that he had in fact read ISO's (which I find doubtful)

Even if he were town and we weren't in LYLO he'd still get lynched today I think since it's just a wildcard in LYLO

Pretty sure he's scum though

[Draynth]

what i find odd in this scenario is una and lefty seem to have a disagreement in how the game should be played. una keeps hinting at pr while lefty wants a solid claim and continues to push una.

Would this happen if they were both scum though? After all, they have day talk
Do you think it was an attempt to gain town cred for one of them should the other flip?

[Draynth]

Let's run a scenario.

lets say jaysadweeb leaves one post today that says X is scum and then gets lynched.

how do you guys react? What do you discern from a simple post? Is he playing mindgames? Is he giving out his scum partner? Or is he doing a last second push against town?

I feel like this is just too hard to work out since it's a guessing game
If this were to happen I reckon we just flat out ignore it completely and try to not let it bias anything

[OkaPoka]

what i find odd in this scenario is una and lefty seem to have a disagreement in how the game should be played. una keeps hinting at pr while lefty wants a solid claim and continues to push una.

Would this happen if they were both scum though? After all, they have day talk
Do you think it was an attempt to gain town cred for one of them should the other flip?

im not sure
its certainly a possibility because anything is a possibility but based on gut + evidence, i think that lefty and una is still the most likely.

if we really wanted to be sure we would have to meta dive both of their scum games and see how often they buss but lets be honest nobody is going to read hundreds of pages and make a call that might be right

anyways i was going to do a draynth post but i realized that anything i accused draynth of, una would also be guilty of

thus basically we have two scenarios
jay flips rb -> lynch draynth
jay flips goon -> lynch una

thats day 4

im ready to vote if you guys are, ill wait for mylo to do his analysis and discover something i missed before we end this day

[OkaPoka]

what i find odd in this scenario is una and lefty seem to have a disagreement in how the game should be played. una keeps hinting at pr while lefty wants a solid claim and continues to push una.

Would this happen if they were both scum though? After all, they have day talk
Do you think it was an attempt to gain town cred for one of them should the other flip?

we honestly won't know until flip tho, if lefty hadnt replaced out then we could have been able to see a full potential plan but with him replacing out its going to be hard to tell what they were trying to accomplish, if they even had a plan

[Draynth]

Goes without saying that nobody vote early tomorrow until we know what we are doing