Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Please listen to me guys.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Absolutely nobody hammer until i am home at least-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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this was mostly a joke lolIn post 3351, Andresvmb wrote:
Like this is an outrageous reaction, but I don’t see much reevaluation happening from Prism here. I am strongly against an imaginality execution precisely because of the context jjh also pointed out (that I highlighted in a previous post), but gob clearly has an agenda and no set of facts or additional critical thinking is going to change that. Which is blatantly Scummy. But whatever, let’s pretend that executing me wins the game so we can all feel better about ourselves.In post 3327, gob wrote:
I probably wont rereadIn post 3325, jjh927 wrote: Reread page 83 and 84. There is a VC on 83 you can look at to get the state. Look at where the votes are moving-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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wtf no its not lol.In post 3361, Andresvmb wrote:
This is a straight up lie.In post 3358, gob wrote:
this was mostly a joke lolIn post 3351, Andresvmb wrote:
Like this is an outrageous reaction, but I don’t see much reevaluation happening from Prism here. I am strongly against an imaginality execution precisely because of the context jjh also pointed out (that I highlighted in a previous post), but gob clearly has an agenda and no set of facts or additional critical thinking is going to change that. Which is blatantly Scummy. But whatever, let’s pretend that executing me wins the game so we can all feel better about ourselves.In post 3327, gob wrote:
I probably wont rereadIn post 3325, jjh927 wrote: Reread page 83 and 84. There is a VC on 83 you can look at to get the state. Look at where the votes are moving
Are you just the wolf here?-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Im at work for another 2 hours dudeIn post 3371, Andresvmb wrote:
Why don’t you do what you told jjh you would do then and prove me wrong?In post 3369, gob wrote:
wtf no its not lol.In post 3361, Andresvmb wrote:
This is a straight up lie.In post 3358, gob wrote:
this was mostly a joke lolIn post 3351, Andresvmb wrote:
Like this is an outrageous reaction, but I don’t see much reevaluation happening from Prism here. I am strongly against an imaginality execution precisely because of the context jjh also pointed out (that I highlighted in a previous post), but gob clearly has an agenda and no set of facts or additional critical thinking is going to change that. Which is blatantly Scummy. But whatever, let’s pretend that executing me wins the game so we can all feel better about ourselves.In post 3327, gob wrote:
I probably wont rereadIn post 3325, jjh927 wrote: Reread page 83 and 84. There is a VC on 83 you can look at to get the state. Look at where the votes are moving
Are you just the wolf here?-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Let’s all calm down. Only the coolest heads will prevail.-
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What did he mean by this?In post 3374, Andresvmb wrote:
if I do flip TownIn post 3366, Prism wrote: You haven't gotten to it in like 4 days but here you are again whining up a storm and fighting with me over our own slots. Bizarre how one of these you always have time for, usually within the hour.-
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I read pages 83 and 84. I find it interesting how the game itself sort of died when moving from imaginality.
Honeslty i might be conf-biasing too much but this just made me think imaginality is scum more.
What did i miss JJH?-
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I didnt miss that.In post 3409, jjh927 wrote: You missed the people making votes and how the alignment of the people voting might affect how they vote-
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wait a second WTF lol
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UNVOTE: Imaginality-
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Prism can you trust me fully and go Firebringer here?
If not I will relent and go Andres-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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I think people arent looking at Firebringer because he hasnt posted recently-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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The question is do you trust in my skills?
I wasn't joking with what I said yesterday.
I think if we are to vote between Andres and imaginality, we do imaginality first. Andres has scum potential in that pool (Andres/Firebringer), but I feel like it's Firebringer. One thing I noticed is that Firebringer jumped on Titus and then immediately camel jumped on him.
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I noticed this at the time btw, but I don't like using this kind of logic.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Fixed.In post 3420, gob wrote: The question is do you trust in my skills?
I wasn't joking with what I said yesterday.
I think if we are to vote between Andres and imaginality, we do imaginality first. Andres has scum potential in that pool (Andres/Firebringer), but I feel like it's Firebringer. One thing I noticed is that Firebringer jumped on Titus and then immediately camel jumped on her.
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I noticed this at the time btw, but I don't like using this kind of logic.-
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viewtopic.php?p=13973823#p13973823In post 3423, Firebringer wrote: sorry was busy hiding out in the scum pt
whats the reason im scum again gob. vote count analysis or something?-
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Oh no... the one thing you SHOULDNT defer to someone on.In post 3427, Prism wrote: (Note for completeness: I do defer on some meta reads where subjective knowledge is king.)-
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I'm out of energy. Get him for me Prism.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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How is that a nothing read?
Firebringer/Ydrasse/Andres/JJH has wolf 100% of the time
Firebringer/Andres is most reasonable small pool
Firebringer has been scummier than Andres, looking at his votes. His actions speak louder than words.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Guys, like seriously. You must understand that I am not just making shit up.
Learn these terms "wolf on wagon" and "wolf off wagon"
We are hunting not players, but worlds. The winning combination.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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You and Ydrasse voting Titus? Or Andres, JJH being off wagon? I am not even looking at that.
The only thing I care about is who was not on the Alisae wagon. This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafiahaveto vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.
Let's take 9player for example
1. Day 1 is misboot = 1-2 wolf on wagon, 0-1 wolves off wagon. If the two wolves werent voting, you would be able to tell.
2. Day 2 you solve whichever pool is easier. With night kills you also kill on-wagon if the kill was off-wagon.
So for example
Gob, Alisae, Ydrasse, Titus, JJH, Exacerbated, Blinzer, Elijah, Deleter
Gob(5): Alisae, Ydrasse, Titus, JJH, Exacerbated
Alisae(3): Blinzer, Elijah, Deleter
NK is on Blinzer = wolf 100% on Gob wagon. Potentially spews Elijah & Deleter town.
NK is on Ydrasse = wolves on both wagons.
Basically. This is just correct 100% of the time. And I am using this sort of logic to reach my conclusions in this game. I feel like I've explained it a million times a million different ways at this point.
If you don't want to ruin the game by learning the cheat-sheet, that's fine, but just understand I am not pulling things out of my ass.-
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I'm not underestimating you guys lol. You think I'm Andres or T3 or whoever. But I am arguing my point. That is what this game is for, and I do NOT roll over quietly.In post 3439, Prism wrote:
You are greatly testing my patience. Not one have you introduced a novel concept to the players at this table. You are greatly overestimating yourself, but this is routine. The degree to which you are underestimating your peers is astounding.In post 3437, gob wrote: Guys, like seriously. You must understand that I am not just making shit up.
Learn these terms "wolf on wagon" and "wolf off wagon"
We are hunting not players, but worlds. The winning combination.
I am just explaining how I got to my reads. And I am saying, please just go use my last post and look at ANY random 9p game (that is not crazy weird setup). You will find what I say is true.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Prism, I've been around the BLOCK my friend.
You are probably underestimating me to a certain extent.-
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LOL, dude vote count arguments are basically the realest analysis there is. People's votes, especially the ones at the EoD, it is the strongest piece of evidence to show what alignment someone is.In post 3446, Firebringer wrote: VOTE: gob
the fact gob just keeps ignoring me pushing snivy and not just arguing that i was scum bussing is like so bad faith.
all these vote count arguments are obfuscating actual analysis.
gob could be town. Idc right now. This is boring
Anyway, I do have other shit against you. Like you and Camel jumping on Titus at the same time.-
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It is in fact what happened. My reads were always good, but I couldn't "solve" games, especially big ones. With wagon analysis you can actually solve.In post 3449, Prism wrote:
somehow i missed this one and i am HOWLINGIn post 3440, gob wrote: I cannot explain exactly why, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.-
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Oh my god, okay. Whatever whatever.-
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It is what it is.-
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Tough scene man.-
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At this point StD is not in the pool. What I said + what other people said about how StD would've left before camel, i think that's true.In post 3516, Lazy Shirou wrote: I'll pretend to jump off a bridge if there's no scum in [StD/Imaginality/Andres/T3]
and @Gob, I agree with you that Firebringer could be scum but I just think he can also be town and the above pool is like, ?guaranteed? to have his partner.
If it's something dumb like Fire/JJH or Fire/Ydra I just give up on this shit tbh
I think if Andres is mafia then FIrebringer is town and vice versa. I think i actually prefer the Andres wagon to an imaginality one.-
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Yea I am not voting until the very end, lol. You all are stuck with me for as long as possible.-
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Mafia has more than one royal family...-
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Let's do it up.-
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Day 1 wagon = misbootIn post 3542, Firebringer wrote:
i have to again ask how you come with these assumptions/reasons.In post 3526, gob wrote:
At this point StD is not in the pool. What I said + what other people said about how StD would've left before camel, i think that's true.In post 3516, Lazy Shirou wrote: I'll pretend to jump off a bridge if there's no scum in [StD/Imaginality/Andres/T3]
and @Gob, I agree with you that Firebringer could be scum but I just think he can also be town and the above pool is like, ?guaranteed? to have his partner.
If it's something dumb like Fire/JJH or Fire/Ydra I just give up on this shit tbh
I think if Andres is mafia then FIrebringer is town and vice versa. I think i actually prefer the Andres wagon to an imaginality one.
Because i frankly don't see how me and andres couldn't be a team from your perspective if we just go on vca since i don't think ive voted andres at all in this game. What basis is there that you got to one of us is town and other has to be mafia.
Explain it like im 5
misboot wagon = most likely has maf on it
idea = mafia don't vote the same since it implicates them as partners, especially in this setup where mafia have to vote to kill people.
conclusion = mafia will be on separate wagons
conclusion = wagons create PoE pools in themselves.
Ydrasse+Firebringer voted Titus Day 1
JJH on StD and Andres on Ydrasse
This is the pool I am working with. I feel confident on StD. Ydrasse I feel less confident in now, but day 2 I felt confident so I'm pretty sure they're town. JJH I think is also most likely town at this point.
That leaves you and Andres. i do not like Andres' vote onto StD. Felt very opportunistic. In fact a lot of his plays this day have felt opportunistic. BUT, he does seem to be trying to solve. You haven't done much this game I feel like. It's usually just jokey pop-ins. Usually people who are constantly joking are scum.
The time-read on you and camel is also there but most people don't find that valid.
I think it's most likely imaginality as the other wolf, but I will deal with that all later most likely. The imaginality wagon stinks, and on the off chance JJH is a deep wolf, I don't want to go that way today.-
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It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.
I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.-
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Well it does. Which is why I think it's Fire > Andres > imaginality for me.In post 3559, Lazy Shirou wrote: i think your theory makes some sense gob
it's just that there's also context to consider and andres being scum would still fit in your narrative-
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I have a lot of experience.In post 3563, Firebringer wrote: I still don't see how your theory can't make it so that both me and andres are town or both are scum. Like whats the line in breaking that.
But im done asking I don't think your going to make sense here and trying to pry you to give me context/understanding of how you see certain votes/actions is not getting me anywhere
Many years playing forum mafia on various sites in multiple languages.
Many years playing 1v1 wolf-style games.
Multiple games against some of the best players in teh world.
My reads are like 80% accurate, just right off the bat.
I also think jumping on Titus late, is scummy in itself. Even ignoring camel coming in right after, Firebringer jumped on second to last.
Another "dirty trick" in wagon analysis is that the people who jump on last, or switch late are mafia. Again, a hard-and-fast trick that doesnt always apply, but if you just believe in it, you find it working out the majority of the time.
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Anyway, you are right that you and andres could both be town through my theory. That is why there was 1 mafia in the pool of four with Ydrasse/JJH/Andres/Fire. I just spent time and determined you are the most likely mafia, cutting out all the bullshit noise.
It is unlikely you are BOTH mafia though, so if you flip town, then Andres is 100% mafia and we pin him tomorrow. He most likely leaves today though so whatever.-
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It's funny because there are actually so little limitations with wagon analysis. All it does it paint the game into 1-3 worlds. (2-6 in multiball). You solve along those lines.In post 3565, Prism wrote:
Your reasoning has literally been in use on this site since 2004. Here's a quick 2007 link for fun.In post 3558, gob wrote: It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.
I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.
It is not novel. Players on this website learn about it during their first game. Players at this table do not rely on it exclusively for a reason. They are extremely skeptical of your use because they have learned the limitations of it over time. One of the most common errors is failing to appreciate basic conditional probability, which is that when you chain assumptions on the basis that they areprobably truetogether, the final conclusion becomes significantly less likely. Your analysis is riddled with these unsound assumptions chained together, which is why everyone thinks it's awful.
It's basically a FRAMEWORK where you place your reads, and the output is the winning combination of nailing the scumteam everytime.
The ISSUE with this is mafia teams that bus right out of the game (which I think is the right strategy most of the time, since it doesn't decrease the mafia's nightkilling potential [usually, in good setups it does] and it's harder to catch 1 person rather than 2 or 3). But most teams don't play that way Day 1 so it's easy pickings. This setup also basically ensures that mafia can't bus.-
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In post 3568, Lazy Shirou wrote: did u guys know that before pikachu, they were considering making jigglypuff the series mascot?-
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If you have seen what I have seen, you wouldn't be acting the way you are.In post 3574, Prism wrote:
Player who doesn't understand the theory behind wagon analysis insists it has no limitations and it is everyone else who does not understand the tool. Bold.In post 3440, gob wrote:This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafia, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.haveto vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why-
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See I am not claiming superiority over you in anyway, especially in the talent department lol.In post 3579, Prism wrote:
I suspect I am acting the way I am because I have seen much, much more, but suit yourself. You are the superior talent.In post 3575, gob wrote:
If you have seen what I have seen, you wouldn't be acting the way you are.In post 3574, Prism wrote:
Player who doesn't understand the theory behind wagon analysis insists it has no limitations and it is everyone else who does not understand the tool. Bold.In post 3440, gob wrote:This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafia, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.haveto vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why
I am just saying I have read the book of mafia directly. I don't get it 100% because, frankly I am low IQ. But, I know that it is correct and I have used it to start solving games, not just winning them.
Like mechanically, certain people become projected scum-
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Okay. I will seriously try to just play "normally" and read "normally" from here on out.
But can you at least try to understand where I am coming from?-
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Yea basically.In post 3586, imaginality wrote: Prism: I work hard to get reads 20% better than chance
Gob: I have 80% read accuracy
Gob: I'm not claiming superiority in any way-
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VOTE: Firebringer-
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I'm not following. Couldn't they be partners with each other?-
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Weren't you dogging me earlier for hopping off imaginality when you hopped on it? What happened?In post 3851, jjh927 wrote: I am not voting imaginality-
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I am willing to vote imaginality if everyone wants to hammer.
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I really don't understand how people are saying I am low hanging fruit or working in favor of scum.
I get that a lot, but I think people just straight up don't like me and the way I talk and they just justify why I "suck" after the fact.-
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I have simultaneously the highest and lowest self esteem IN THE WORLD.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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You'd be 1 million times stronger as a player if you had full self confidence.In post 3868, jjh927 wrote:
Well, the primary purpose of my imag vote was to create a imag wagon and get people to make votes and really harden those disassociatives. Basically to watch people put their money where their mouth is, and you immediately took your money away insteadIn post 3862, gob wrote:
Weren't you dogging me earlier for hopping off imaginality when you hopped on it? What happened?In post 3851, jjh927 wrote: I am not voting imaginality
I don't actually want to elim imag-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Looks like a bunch of jokesters have run over town.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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This is me actually.In post 4004, Prism wrote:-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Prism, Shirou
You guys thinking wat im thinkin?-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Cause its about you and they may be thinking the same thing I am.In post 4007, jjh927 wrote: How would they know-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Not for today. But youre actually right it is wild and probably wrong.In post 4009, jjh927 wrote: Oh are you trying to float a wagon on me?
That's pretty fucking wild honestly-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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VOTE: imaginality-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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were not doing fucking stdIn post 4017, Lazy Shirou wrote:
We can but you would need to get him to E-2/E-1 first because I don't have the energy to tryhard here in hopes of a StD wagon 48 hours away from deadlineIn post 4013, jjh927 wrote: Shirou, can we do STD
You've had STD in your scumreads since day 1 and you haven't voted there since RVS. There's two yellow squares with your name attached to them that you could turn green-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Huh? Doesnt seem like sound logic to me.In post 4032, Prism wrote: I'm not moving my vote unless it's to avoid a plurality elim on a townread.
I'm not even willing to vote imaginality anymore. There was a point where the votes not on him were me and 3 extremely strong townreads, ie. I can deduce he's town unless scum is throwing.-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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Game ends, right?In post 4036, Prism wrote: Do you know what happens if we vote out a mafia today gob?-
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gob he/himMafia Scumhe/him
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