Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[havingfitz]

Who blocks candy? Seriously.

VOTE: blockcandy

[havingfitz]

btw

mod...I'm v/LA now until Mar 13th.

I'll be able to keep up via phone, and post somewhat...but will definitely be less active.

[havingfitz]

The guy just hates to play Scum and he either lurks it out until lynched/replaced or posts nonsense on intervals and still gets lynched

He's logged onsite since this game has begun

[havingfitz]

However, Shad has pinged my radar,

His lone post pings me as well. If doomfeather seems town to him why would he suggest saving doom to vote for later?

VOTE: Shadpearl

[havingfitz]

if your saying both are scum, I'm assuming your thinking along the lines of, possible team mates, one mafia, and one SK?

Why would mafia and sk be team mates?

[havingfitz]

I just missed the word "or".

Got it.

[havingfitz]

He's dodging attention.

How am I dodging attention? I'm taking stances and making observations.

If I wanted to dodge attention my v/la (which is legit) would be more stringent with no, or much less, posting.

[havingfitz]

Spoiler: First post A50 seriously scumread me, because "he OMGUSed me"

Would lynch either of Creature/doomfeathers right now. The associative tells are unbearably obvious there.

Probabilities:

Both Scum: 40%
Creature Scum and doom VI: 35%
doom Scum and Creature having a day off: 20%
Both Town and playing really bad: 5%

doom is more or less a noob. He also has something on me (because in the game he linked I was his scum p and I went on to win that game despite him having been lynched on D1, so he could be paranoid). However, I don't see why he jumped to defend Creature before even Creature had posted, given that my meta argument was accurate and supported by many others (doom may not know Creature's meta himself, but when several players back the argument up it must be true).

Creature is OMGUSy by nature, He hate to be wagoned as either alignment and could very well SR his voters, I admit. However, his entrance was HORRIBLE. The "Town?" comment on an opening post by doom was silly enough to earn Creature a SR on it's own, even if he had to retract it soon after. Creature is GOOD as Town, and would not have commented on that post AT ALL if he was Town here. The bad play/nonesense still points to Scum!Creature, especially since that comment came while he was catching up, thus should have yet seen what I said about him (i.e. no way he OMGUS SR'd me as Town!him would still)

Spoiler: A50's posts that come before 113, no serious scumread on me found

Who do I know?
Almost50 (I think!), Aneninen (Scummy by nature), JaydragonKing (Always hard to read), Lalendra (I remember the name, but nothing about the play), havingfitz (My favourite guess for the SK), doomfeathers (Was I/you Town or Scum in that newbie game? Remind me who was also in it.), texcat (...), TheGoldenParadox (Fitting name), Creature (Unless he does something major within the next 48 hours; this is the D1 lynch by default)

Who do I NOT know?
Sando, Shadpearl, profii, blockcandy, Taly, Ausuka, Kopherald (Unless this is an alt of Kop?)

Working theory?
Everyone is either a TPR, a VT, a Goon or a Serial Killer. Trust me.

VOTE: Creature

No posts yet. Must've rolled Scum. If this gets prodded/replaced it's 99.99% it IS a Scum role.

Kopherald (hydra of kop and brassherald)

Oh! My bad. This one goes to the people I know category.

Do you have any games on him? Is he consistent?

Creature's meta is well known to the whole site (and I suspect other sites too). The guy just hates to play Scum and he either lurks it out until lynched/replaced or posts nonsense on intervals and still gets lynched.

As Town though, Creature is sensible and has some depth. Some would even argue he has damn good reads as Town too.

To prove the point of your first spoiler.... shouldn't the second spoiler be

your

comments before post 113 wrt

your

suspicions towards him?

However, I did read an ended game where he was Mafia. I didn't see too much difference in his posts there, to his posts now.

Doesn't that support A50's Creature meta case? Which whether you believe Creature is displaying that meta in here or not... the meta in my experience is valid.

[havingfitz]

Mod... what's up with blockcandy.

[havingfitz]

Mod... what's up with blockcandy.

Lol...sorry mod....missed the prod.

[havingfitz]

Furthermore, why has the mod not prodded fitz, despite his VLA status? Whether he is scum or town, it is bad for the game if he's going to join and not be able to post at all for 2 weeks.

@Mod looking forward to your response

-Brass

Where are you getting two weeks from?

I'm still v/la...the snowstorm in NE is delaying my return till Thursday morning.

I'll try to catch up on my reading asap.
Till then....
UNVOTE:

[havingfitz]

VOTE: havingfitz

Would policy lynch someone who gets away five days without being poked.

Might be something or nothing, but posting in a PT would that avoid a poke?

- Kop

Wow... brass I could see asking this question but not Kop.

For someone so concerned with my v/la and whether I should have been prodded during it (WTF!?) you'd think you could answer my question to you above.

VOTE: Kopherald

[havingfitz]

V/la over. Catching up with my ongoing games today.

[havingfitz]

(This is what you get for playing @ MU)

?

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Jimmy for that hammer.

Lean town on Shad.

I need to reread game from beginning. Too much time away from this game.

[havingfitz]

shadpearl is town for this so

how?

[havingfitz]

Zzzzzzz. No comment.

[havingfitz]

shadpearl is town for this so

how?

[havingfitz]

V/la till Monday morning.

[havingfitz]

shadpearl is town for this so

how?

Replacing Mathdino.
Please do not speculate on the events which led to it.

Sooooo....no town pass for Shad. Got it.

[havingfitz]

busy IRL

^

[havingfitz]

What makes you think scum would blatantly contradict themselves like that? Why didn’t you ask him to clarify what he meant?

I don't like contradictions.
For early game non rvs pressure I'm fine using it for a vote.
I didn't ask because I didn't care for a reason.

[havingfitz]

Yeah. Technically this is my new main but whatever.

If it's common knowledge who are you an alt of?

[havingfitz]

Yeah. Technically this is my new main but whatever.

If it's common knowledge who are you an alt of?

Read her signature

Duh. And I had already done that earlier in the game.

[havingfitz]

im voting you for being on a number of wagons yesterday and being on a wagon today... its like you just want people to die!

How is any of this AI?

So is Anen equally scummy for you? Same number of D1 wagons AND he's voting someone today

Asuka and A50 have each voted three wagons today alone....what's that doing to your brain?

[havingfitz]

Hate me but V/LA
I should have done it earlier.

Till when?

[havingfitz]

A quick thought.
I found it weird that Havingfits had asked about my V/LA.
He'd hardly done anything. Why was it that important? I'm not an important player here anyway.

Did you have a question for me?

You appear to be rambling on with yourself.

[havingfitz]

I'm still happy with my vote on Fitz.

Because I'm not playing like I did in a game where I was an sk?

If you're going to rely on meta for your gut reads on me you could at least look at gsmes we've played where I was scum (Open 674 & mini 1653). I don't think those games will apply to this one but they'd probably be better than an sk game. You could also peruse the several town games we've been in.

[havingfitz]

What makes you think scum would blatantly contradict themselves like that? Why didn’t you ask him to clarify what he meant?

I don't like contradictions.
For early game non rvs pressure I'm fine using it for a vote.
I didn't ask because I didn't care for a reason.

Why didn't you care?

It was a page 3 vote barely out of rvs. I saw something I didn't like and that was good enough. I don't always feel the need to delve deeper into the inner workings of an action or comment I think is voteworthy.

[havingfitz]

The game has come to a stagnation.. again

Qft.

I haven't got a lot of room to talk but things have ground to a halt it seems.

6 days is still time to lynch elsewhere if a promising wagon develops but that would involve people participating.

I'll try to get refreshed on the game over the next few days and do a few isos...give expanded reads. Etc etc.

[havingfitz]

HavingFitz, may be scum.

But he isn't.

Why would you think so?

[havingfitz]

HavingFitz, may be scum.

But he isn't.

Why would you think so?

I think it's the lack of posting? Or maybe the lack of reads, just judging by what people have been saying.


No one has any commentary on Creature possibly being the SK? x) I thought that was such a great theory, lol.

Hi Shad. Good to see you posting.

The question was for Aneninen...not for you.

Despite being v/LA a good portion of this game I have posted more than a few players...yourself included. texcat. Jimmy. And I've given a few reads out. I've stated at least one town read and indicated a least two players I suspect. So I've given reads on a quarter of the remaining players without really even trying.

A few bonus reads for you...pre-refresh + ISOs....I lean not mafia on Luv and A50. And Creature. As for Creature being an SK....I do not SK hunt until I have to.

[havingfitz]

I'd put money on a Profii scumflip meaning a Fitz scumflip too

Where are you dreaming this up from?

[havingfitz]

I'm not seeing the Fitz case based on inactivity. So if there's something else, I'd like to know what.

Me too.

[havingfitz]

Fitz, you don’t seem to be pushing anything.

1) The amount I push is proportional to confidence, availability and interest. All of which are low atm.
2) A vote isn't a push?

[havingfitz]

A vote is a push. It might rate very low on the push scale but it's a push of some degree > 0.

while effort and activity is NAI, I’ve seen you a lot more engaged than this.

The amount I push is proportional to confidence, availability and interest. All of which are low atm.

Were these three things similar to the game/s you are referencing?

[havingfitz]

Especially seeing as he's currently being the counterwagon to Jimmy who is scummier.

Why is Jimmy scummier than profii?
Have you ever seen a game where counterwagons were both on scum?

[havingfitz]

First check-in since last week (weekend + Easter).

I'm confined to phone use for the immediate future so comments will be short/limited.

I see I'm getting wagoned.... wtf?

Why? Low activity + v/la's?

I'll try to get read up today and post asap.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Profii

[havingfitz]

Give me something Fitz.

I'm feeling perpetually behind on ms.net atm. I can probably spend some catch up time in the next 2 days. But not today. If you have something I can answer quickly ask away. Anything requiring more involved reading is a no go today at least.

[havingfitz]

It's fitz/profii/texcat (and I don't even know which of profii/fitz is the SK)

Have you been suspecting me this game?
Are you inferring I'm bussing? Lol....

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Profii

WTF is this? A naked vote.

Yes.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Profii

WTF is this? A naked vote.

I mean seriously.

- Kop

Gtk

[havingfitz]

eats rope

The phrase "eats rope" is a scum slip.

Also...do you have any issues with the others voting profii?

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Profii

WTF is this? A naked vote.

I mean seriously.

- Kop

Gtk

Eh?

Good to know.

[havingfitz]

-Brass (probably for the last time)

Why?

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE: for claim + results.

Would vote Shad but not sure what count is so I'll hold off for now.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Shadpearl
Obvious play is to lynch this today and if he flips town we go for profii tomorrow.

Congrats on ignoring everything that's been said...great contribution.

Why is Shad not the preferred lynch due to profii's result? Is there something (other than profii fake claiming) that would absolve Shad of profii's result?

Anyone can feel free to answer the question above.

[havingfitz]

I mean like SK at this point would want mafia dead before they find him/her.

This is a good point.

Not killing Shad would either force mafia to target Shad (or the sk if Shad is mafia). We still have the bandwidth to absorb any worst case outcome from not killing Shad today and if things go poorly tonight we can kill Shad tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

I still don't feel good about havingfitz or texcat either

Would you mind summarizing? If not I'll ISO you when I can.

[havingfitz]

This is also hilarious to me. Two other people have made comprehensive posts about fitz looking like scum, and seemingly, he wants to ignore those two acting like he'll respond to this one.

Actually I'm typing up a response to some of your post right now.

Who was the other "comprehensive" post from?

[havingfitz]

VOTE: ptofii

???

[havingfitz]

Post weekend check in. Catching up asap.

[havingfitz]

So just some random non read-through based VCA musings from my phone....

I don't think (in order of conviction) that A50, Asuka or texcat are likely to be the last mafia based on their efforts towards profii.
I lean against Shad being the last mafia slightly based on their profii vote but moreso for profii's commitment towards Shad.
I lean least against Taly being the last mafia slightly based on their profii. I do think they are a decent candidate for bussing profii in combination with profii's brief, harmless, Taly vote yesterday.
Most likely to be the last mafia (in order of conviction) would be Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.

As for SKs...I think they are likely to be aggressive in their hunting for mafia (with town) but also not too bothered at anyone other than themselves being the eventual lynch. So I think there is a decent chance the SK is on both lynches. This filter would (in order of conviction) point to A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

To reiterate...

I think the last mafia (in order of conviction) is Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.
I think the sk (in order of conviction) is within A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

Further reading, and re-reading, as this day progresses will hopefully result in stronger reads for each scum.

[havingfitz]

You want Kop lynched but you don't want to be held responsible just in case he is Town,

What are you talking about? My previous comments are based on what has happened up to this point. Iirc I've had a town lean on Kop till now. A second scum lynch chsnges that read imo. And I expect I'll vote KH shortly...just phone posting and the day just starting has me in no rush to vote.

[havingfitz]

@fitz: And I think the SK would try to hunt down the last Mafia and redirect suspicion off themselves while actively NOT voting the person they

agree

is the last Mafioso.

I disagree. They don't know who mafia are until a flip happens. Imo they are happy to hunt mafia during the day...regardless of outcome and then take their best guess shot at night.

[havingfitz]

Alright then. I stand corrected. So fitz is FoSing everyone and their neighbor

Apparently.

Are there any players you've completely dismissed as mafia or sk?

And having everyone on one list or the other (not intentional btw) doesn't mean I'd support their wagon today.

[havingfitz]

Fitz if you're having trouble with my name just call me iiSq, lol.

Sorry...I was mid post and going off memory. There could have been worse names to come up with

[havingfitz]

Of course you'd want the day to last as long as possible.

You have no townreads. -_-

The post you quote was one of the first I'd made this gameday...and not being terribly confident about any reads...why rush things.

My reads this game are a sliding scale of suspicion. If you want to know who I think is most likely town invert the reads I provided.

And I'm not trying to ignore anything. If you have something you really wanted a response on repost it....succintly if possible.

[havingfitz]

Sorry...I was mid post and going off memory. There could have been worse names to come up with

Lol, the funny thing is that's not the first time someone's called me that.

Is iiSq an alt of yours?

[havingfitz]

KopHerald has made a case on Fitz (1038 1093, for starters

Those aren't cases....they're piss poor whiney isos which point out no AI material that I can see. It comes off as policy-esque due to low posting and v/la's more than anything scummy.

[havingfitz]

1319 is also the first time fitz has really done ANYTHING resembling a read. Check his ISO

I vote players I suspect. I.e. votes are reads. I give a read on Shad (55) and Jimmy (775). And you (499).

He's now suspecting literally everyone without once making a case or a read before today.

While this is technically true...it's a bit misreppish as the people I have near the end of my lists equate to town reads.

I'm travelling the rest of today so essentially ~v/la soon.

I'm tired of Brass' bravado and the hydra's play in general.

VOTE: Kopherald

[havingfitz]

Sorry for flaking mod/town. RL took my head out of the game.

Thanks for modding dave.